Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Quasi zonal flow over the CONUS, with enhanced westerly flow over northern portions of the West and northern Plains, will continue through early next week. Upper-level ridging will build over the West mid-next week into next weekend while upper-level troughing develops over most of the eastern US. Temperatures of 5-20F above normal are expected across the West under the upper-level ridge, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. Ensemble forecast guidance also indicates the possibility of a cutoff low forming west of Baja/southern California late next week, which could help increase moisture advection into the southern half of the West late next week and next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Southwest into southwest Texas... Lee troughing and slightly enhanced mid-level flow aloft will result in dry and breezy conditions across portions of southern New Mexico and southwest Texas Day 3/Monday. The 40% area was drawn to avoid recent and forecast rainfall, and locally elevated conditions are likely to develop across portions of western New Mexico, southeast Arizona, and along/north of the Mogollon Rim extending through the Grand Canyon area on Day 3/Monday. Locally dry and breezy conditions may continue in portions of New Mexico and southwest Texas on Day 4/Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front as well. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Day 8/Saturday: Intermountain West... Behind the dry and breezy conditions across the southern/central Intermountain West, upper-level ridging is expected to develop mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. The dry and breezy conditions across the central Intermountain West followed by above normal temperatures and poor overnight RH recovery should accelerate fuel curing, with some areas having well above normal fuel loading in the Great Basin. Long burning periods (RH <20%) are expected for much of the Southwest into late next week. Current forecast guidance indicates that moisture will move west and north into the Southwest and Colorado Rockies late next week, bringing the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms. Residual Pacific moisture is likely to remain under the ridge resulting in chances of thunderstorms across portions of the central Intermountain West. Given the forecast uncertainty regarding timing and location of potential dry thunderstorms, probabilities for dry thunderstorms were not included at this time. However, it is likely for them to be added in future outlooks based on the forecast pattern. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: central/south Florida... Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, given elevated to locally critical winds and RH. However, there is not enough confidence in the collocation of dry and breezy conditions away from sea breeze thunderstorms to issue 40% areas for portions of central/south Florida on Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. ..Nauslar.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Quasi zonal flow over the CONUS, with enhanced westerly flow over northern portions of the West and northern Plains, will continue through early next week. Upper-level ridging will build over the West mid-next week into next weekend while upper-level troughing develops over most of the eastern US. Temperatures of 5-20F above normal are expected across the West under the upper-level ridge, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. Ensemble forecast guidance also indicates the possibility of a cutoff low forming west of Baja/southern California late next week, which could help increase moisture advection into the southern half of the West late next week and next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Southwest into southwest Texas... Lee troughing and slightly enhanced mid-level flow aloft will result in dry and breezy conditions across portions of southern New Mexico and southwest Texas Day 3/Monday. The 40% area was drawn to avoid recent and forecast rainfall, and locally elevated conditions are likely to develop across portions of western New Mexico, southeast Arizona, and along/north of the Mogollon Rim extending through the Grand Canyon area on Day 3/Monday. Locally dry and breezy conditions may continue in portions of New Mexico and southwest Texas on Day 4/Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front as well. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Day 8/Saturday: Intermountain West... Behind the dry and breezy conditions across the southern/central Intermountain West, upper-level ridging is expected to develop mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. The dry and breezy conditions across the central Intermountain West followed by above normal temperatures and poor overnight RH recovery should accelerate fuel curing, with some areas having well above normal fuel loading in the Great Basin. Long burning periods (RH <20%) are expected for much of the Southwest into late next week. Current forecast guidance indicates that moisture will move west and north into the Southwest and Colorado Rockies late next week, bringing the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms. Residual Pacific moisture is likely to remain under the ridge resulting in chances of thunderstorms across portions of the central Intermountain West. Given the forecast uncertainty regarding timing and location of potential dry thunderstorms, probabilities for dry thunderstorms were not included at this time. However, it is likely for them to be added in future outlooks based on the forecast pattern. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: central/south Florida... Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, given elevated to locally critical winds and RH. However, there is not enough confidence in the collocation of dry and breezy conditions away from sea breeze thunderstorms to issue 40% areas for portions of central/south Florida on Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. ..Nauslar.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Quasi zonal flow over the CONUS, with enhanced westerly flow over northern portions of the West and northern Plains, will continue through early next week. Upper-level ridging will build over the West mid-next week into next weekend while upper-level troughing develops over most of the eastern US. Temperatures of 5-20F above normal are expected across the West under the upper-level ridge, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. Ensemble forecast guidance also indicates the possibility of a cutoff low forming west of Baja/southern California late next week, which could help increase moisture advection into the southern half of the West late next week and next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Southwest into southwest Texas... Lee troughing and slightly enhanced mid-level flow aloft will result in dry and breezy conditions across portions of southern New Mexico and southwest Texas Day 3/Monday. The 40% area was drawn to avoid recent and forecast rainfall, and locally elevated conditions are likely to develop across portions of western New Mexico, southeast Arizona, and along/north of the Mogollon Rim extending through the Grand Canyon area on Day 3/Monday. Locally dry and breezy conditions may continue in portions of New Mexico and southwest Texas on Day 4/Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front as well. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Day 8/Saturday: Intermountain West... Behind the dry and breezy conditions across the southern/central Intermountain West, upper-level ridging is expected to develop mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. The dry and breezy conditions across the central Intermountain West followed by above normal temperatures and poor overnight RH recovery should accelerate fuel curing, with some areas having well above normal fuel loading in the Great Basin. Long burning periods (RH <20%) are expected for much of the Southwest into late next week. Current forecast guidance indicates that moisture will move west and north into the Southwest and Colorado Rockies late next week, bringing the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms. Residual Pacific moisture is likely to remain under the ridge resulting in chances of thunderstorms across portions of the central Intermountain West. Given the forecast uncertainty regarding timing and location of potential dry thunderstorms, probabilities for dry thunderstorms were not included at this time. However, it is likely for them to be added in future outlooks based on the forecast pattern. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: central/south Florida... Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, given elevated to locally critical winds and RH. However, there is not enough confidence in the collocation of dry and breezy conditions away from sea breeze thunderstorms to issue 40% areas for portions of central/south Florida on Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. ..Nauslar.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0365 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 365 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S LCH TO 40 N BPT TO 35 SSE LFK. ..WEINMAN..06/01/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH...CRP...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 365 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-003-009-011-019-023-039-053-055-079-097-099-113-115- 012240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON EVANGELINE JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE RAPIDES ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN VERMILION VERNON TXC241-351-457-012240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JASPER NEWTON TYLER GMZ432-012240- CW Read more

MD 1113 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTH-CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 1113 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Areas affected...North-Central into Northeast TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 012000Z - 012130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm threat will spread east-southeastward across northeast TX through late afternoon. DISCUSSION...Some modest intensification has been noted with a persistent storm cluster moving through the eastern Metroplex and approaching northeast TX. This cluster may continue propagating east-southeastward along a sharpening instability gradient, potentially aided by the MCV moving across north TX. Modest west-northwesterly midlevel flow will continue to provide sufficient effective shear for storm organization, with a continued threat for a supercell or two within the larger storm cluster. Relatively weak midlevel lapse rates may temper the hail threat to some extent, though at least isolated instances of severe hail will remain possible through the afternoon. Some threat for isolated damaging wind will also persist, especially if any further upscale growth occurs this afternoon. Watch issuance is possible if an increase in the magnitude and coverage of the severe threat becomes apparent. ..Dean/Smith.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 32519682 32799612 32639455 32279431 31629457 31549538 31669636 31869679 31989693 32359690 32519682 Read more

WW 0368 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0368 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1112 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN UTAH.
Mesoscale Discussion 1112 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Areas affected...parts of northern Utah. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 011937Z - 012100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few stronger storms may develop with an increasing threat for severe wind gusts this afternoon/evening. DISCUSSION...Temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to low 80s with dewpoints in the 30s and 40s across northern Utah. This has resulted instability around 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE with some additional increase possible as heating continues. A well-defined mid-level shortwave trough (on 6.2u water vapor imagery) is moving out of eastern Nevada which should provide sufficient lift for scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. These relatively quick moving storms with an inverted-V thermodynamic profile will support a threat for severe wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Once the boundary layer starts to cool this evening, expect the severe wind threat to wane. ..Bentley/Smith.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SLC...LKN... LAT...LON 39531466 40391471 41241417 41871274 41831262 41431101 40701063 39551205 39351362 39251457 39531466 Read more

WW 0367 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0367 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0367 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0367 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0367 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0367 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0365 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 365 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE BPT TO 30 NW BPT TO 25 ESE UTS. ..WEINMAN..06/01/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH...CRP...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 365 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-003-011-019-023-053-113-012140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON JEFFERSON DAVIS VERMILION TXC199-241-245-351-361-457-012140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARDIN JASPER JEFFERSON NEWTON ORANGE TYLER GMZ430-432-450-012140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 1111 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO...EASTERN WYOMING...SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS.
Mesoscale Discussion 1111 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Areas affected...northeast Colorado...eastern Wyoming...Southwest South Dakota...western Nebraska...and far northwest Kansas. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 011908Z - 012045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are possible this afternoon/evening. DISCUSSION...Instability is increasing across northeast Colorado and eastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle and southwest South Dakota. A dryline extends from near Cheyenne, WY and across across northeast Colorado where deeper cumulus have started to develop. Strong heating west of this dryline has resulted in a mostly uncapped environment. Northeast of this dryline, the environment remains capped with cooler temperatures, but greater low-level moisture streaming north. Additional thunderstorms are starting to develop across southwest South Dakota in the vicinity of a northward moving warm front. Thunderstorms have already started to develop across the higher terrain in northeast Colorado. Expect these storms to strengthen through the afternoon as they encounter increasing instability with eastward extent. Additional storms may form along the dryline, particularly where convergence is maximized across southeast Wyoming and into Weld County, Colorado. Effective shear is around 35 to 40 knots per regional VWPs which will support supercells. Large hail, some 2+ inches, will be the primary threat with some severe wind gusts also possible. ..Bentley/Smith.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 39280185 39040305 38920424 38980466 39610507 40130535 40930520 42690503 43810499 44450398 44480286 44280176 43210063 40680032 39630045 39280185 Read more

MD 1109 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...EASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN KANSAS...AND THE WESTERN OK PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1109 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Areas affected...northeast New Mexico...eastern Colorado...western Kansas...and the western OK Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 011836Z - 012030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and severe wind gusts is increasing across northeast New Mexico and eastern Colorado. DISCUSSION...Convection has started to form along the Front Range from central Colorado to northern New Mexico. Currently, the environment east of the mountains remains capped amid a well-mixed atmosphere. Another hour or two of heating should erode inhibition across this region and permit strong to severe storm development east of the mountains. Effective shear remains sufficiently strong (35-40 knots per SPC mesoanalysis) to support rotating updrafts across central Colorado with decreasing shear farther south. Initially, the threat will be large hail (some 2+ inch where supercell mode is favored), but severe wind will also be a threat given the inverted-v soundings, favorable for strong downdrafts. Eventually, expect storms to congeal into a few clusters by this evening with an increasing severe wind threat. A severe thunderstorm watch will be needed by mid-afternoon to address the threat from these storms. ..Bentley/Smith.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 35810574 36430526 37160491 37660480 38400490 38980501 39340417 39390283 39440196 38840160 37060168 36560189 36370224 35510387 35430513 35510552 35810574 Read more

MD 1110 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF FAR WEST INTO SOUTHWEST TX...SOUTHEAST NM
Mesoscale Discussion 1110 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Areas affected...Parts of far west into southwest TX...southeast NM Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 011848Z - 012015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Severe storm development is expected later this afternoon, with a threat of very large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Watch issuance is likely by 3 PM CDT. DISCUSSION...Relatively strong heating is underway early this afternoon from southwest into far west TX and southeast NM. Low-level southeasterly flow will support continued moistening through the afternoon beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, resulting in moderate to strong destabilization. As CINH continues to weaken with time and a subtle subtropical shortwave trough approaches from the west, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected by mid to late afternoon. Midlevel westerly flow is generally modest across the region, though somewhat stronger with southward extent into the Trans-Pecos and southern parts of the Permian Basin. A couple of supercells may evolve out of initial convection and move east-southeastward, with an attendant threat of large hail and localized severe gusts. The threat for very large hail (potentially 2 - 3.5 inches in diameter) may become maximized across parts of the Trans-Pecos region from 4-6 PM CDT, when a supercell or two is expected to mature across that region. Finally, while low-level flow/shear will generally remain weak, a tornado cannot be ruled out, especially with any supercell that can propagate into the richer low-level moisture. Watch issuance is likely by 3 PM CDT, in response to the threats described above. ..Dean/Smith.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 30760467 32460537 33520539 34230391 33980264 33280225 31910200 29690177 29570249 28950288 28900353 29120384 29640454 30760467 Read more

MD 1108 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 365... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1108 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Areas affected...Portions of southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 365... Valid 011832Z - 012030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 365 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and locally damaging winds remain possible across portions of southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KHGX/KLCH shows loosely organized clusters of convection (with weak embedded rotation) spreading slowly northward along a related outflow boundary across southeast TX and far southwest LA this afternoon. Ahead/north of the outflow, strong heating/destabilization of a very moist boundary layer (middle/upper 70s dewpoints) should support embedded strong updrafts, despite a somewhat anafrontal evolution of the convection. Additionally, VWP depicts around 30-40 kt of 0-6 km shear, and this may increase to around 50 kt as a subtle midlevel speed max (associated with remnant MCV to the northwest) continues east-southeastward. As a result, loosely organized clusters of storms (with transient/embedded supercell structures) will be capable of producing locally damaging winds (60-70 mph) and isolated large hail (1.0-1.75 inches) through the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... LAT...LON 30079284 29959455 29829488 29839551 30049591 30329579 30679532 30999458 31109354 30999302 30759281 30209266 30079284 Read more

WW 0366 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0366 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0366 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0366 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0366 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0366 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0366 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0366 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 366 SEVERE TSTM CO NM OK TX 012000Z - 020300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 366 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 200 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Northeast New Mexico Western Oklahoma Panhandle Northwest part of the Texas Panhandle * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 200 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and intensify this afternoon into the early evening across the Watch area. The stronger storms, including the possibility for a few supercells, will potentially be capable of large to very large hail and severe gusts. A few small clusters may eventually evolve towards late afternoon and early evening near the Colorado-Kansas border and pose an increasing threat for severe gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles south of Clayton NM to 50 miles north of Akron CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 365... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Smith Read more