Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Predominantly zonal flow is expected to be in place over the central CONUS early Monday morning, ahead of shortwave trough expected to progress from the Pacific Northwest into the northern High Plains. One or more vorticity maxima could exist from OK into the Upper Midwest, generated by overnight MCS activity. The most substantial overnight MCS is expected to move across NE, with the vorticity maximum associated with this activity likely near the Mid MO Valley vicinity. Another MCV could be over southeast OK/Arklatex vicinity. Additionally, thunderstorms may be ongoing across central OK early Monday morning. A warm and moist airmass will likely be in place from the central/southern Plains into Lower/Mid MS Valley, but the lack of notable shortwave troughs will result in mesoscale features, such as the previously mentioned vorticity maxima, acting as the primary impetus for thunderstorm development. Afternoon thunderstorm initiation currently appears most likely across southern WI and northern IL, downstream of the Mid MO Valley MCV. Moderate buoyancy and vertical shear across this region could support a few strong to severe storms. More uncertainty exists farther south from central/southern MO into southern OK and the Arklatex (and potentially as far south as southeast TX). A majority of the CAM guidance has thunderstorm activity in this area, with the early morning storms over central OK gradually strengthening as they move southeastward where ample low-level moisture will support strong buoyancy. Given the linear storm mode, damaging gusts will be the primary severe threat. Limited predictability of this evolution merits keeping severe probabilities low with this forecast. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible along the dryline from western OK into the Edwards Plateau/western TX Hill Country. Any mature convection along the dryline should be supercellular, with a conditional threat for very large hail and damaging gusts. A surface low is expected to move northeastward across the northern Plains late Monday night through early Tuesday morning. A cold front will sweep southeastward in its wake, supporting isolated thunderstorm development. Limited buoyancy should mitigate the overall severe potential. ..Mosier.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Predominantly zonal flow is expected to be in place over the central CONUS early Monday morning, ahead of shortwave trough expected to progress from the Pacific Northwest into the northern High Plains. One or more vorticity maxima could exist from OK into the Upper Midwest, generated by overnight MCS activity. The most substantial overnight MCS is expected to move across NE, with the vorticity maximum associated with this activity likely near the Mid MO Valley vicinity. Another MCV could be over southeast OK/Arklatex vicinity. Additionally, thunderstorms may be ongoing across central OK early Monday morning. A warm and moist airmass will likely be in place from the central/southern Plains into Lower/Mid MS Valley, but the lack of notable shortwave troughs will result in mesoscale features, such as the previously mentioned vorticity maxima, acting as the primary impetus for thunderstorm development. Afternoon thunderstorm initiation currently appears most likely across southern WI and northern IL, downstream of the Mid MO Valley MCV. Moderate buoyancy and vertical shear across this region could support a few strong to severe storms. More uncertainty exists farther south from central/southern MO into southern OK and the Arklatex (and potentially as far south as southeast TX). A majority of the CAM guidance has thunderstorm activity in this area, with the early morning storms over central OK gradually strengthening as they move southeastward where ample low-level moisture will support strong buoyancy. Given the linear storm mode, damaging gusts will be the primary severe threat. Limited predictability of this evolution merits keeping severe probabilities low with this forecast. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible along the dryline from western OK into the Edwards Plateau/western TX Hill Country. Any mature convection along the dryline should be supercellular, with a conditional threat for very large hail and damaging gusts. A surface low is expected to move northeastward across the northern Plains late Monday night through early Tuesday morning. A cold front will sweep southeastward in its wake, supporting isolated thunderstorm development. Limited buoyancy should mitigate the overall severe potential. ..Mosier.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Predominantly zonal flow is expected to be in place over the central CONUS early Monday morning, ahead of shortwave trough expected to progress from the Pacific Northwest into the northern High Plains. One or more vorticity maxima could exist from OK into the Upper Midwest, generated by overnight MCS activity. The most substantial overnight MCS is expected to move across NE, with the vorticity maximum associated with this activity likely near the Mid MO Valley vicinity. Another MCV could be over southeast OK/Arklatex vicinity. Additionally, thunderstorms may be ongoing across central OK early Monday morning. A warm and moist airmass will likely be in place from the central/southern Plains into Lower/Mid MS Valley, but the lack of notable shortwave troughs will result in mesoscale features, such as the previously mentioned vorticity maxima, acting as the primary impetus for thunderstorm development. Afternoon thunderstorm initiation currently appears most likely across southern WI and northern IL, downstream of the Mid MO Valley MCV. Moderate buoyancy and vertical shear across this region could support a few strong to severe storms. More uncertainty exists farther south from central/southern MO into southern OK and the Arklatex (and potentially as far south as southeast TX). A majority of the CAM guidance has thunderstorm activity in this area, with the early morning storms over central OK gradually strengthening as they move southeastward where ample low-level moisture will support strong buoyancy. Given the linear storm mode, damaging gusts will be the primary severe threat. Limited predictability of this evolution merits keeping severe probabilities low with this forecast. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible along the dryline from western OK into the Edwards Plateau/western TX Hill Country. Any mature convection along the dryline should be supercellular, with a conditional threat for very large hail and damaging gusts. A surface low is expected to move northeastward across the northern Plains late Monday night through early Tuesday morning. A cold front will sweep southeastward in its wake, supporting isolated thunderstorm development. Limited buoyancy should mitigate the overall severe potential. ..Mosier.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Predominantly zonal flow is expected to be in place over the central CONUS early Monday morning, ahead of shortwave trough expected to progress from the Pacific Northwest into the northern High Plains. One or more vorticity maxima could exist from OK into the Upper Midwest, generated by overnight MCS activity. The most substantial overnight MCS is expected to move across NE, with the vorticity maximum associated with this activity likely near the Mid MO Valley vicinity. Another MCV could be over southeast OK/Arklatex vicinity. Additionally, thunderstorms may be ongoing across central OK early Monday morning. A warm and moist airmass will likely be in place from the central/southern Plains into Lower/Mid MS Valley, but the lack of notable shortwave troughs will result in mesoscale features, such as the previously mentioned vorticity maxima, acting as the primary impetus for thunderstorm development. Afternoon thunderstorm initiation currently appears most likely across southern WI and northern IL, downstream of the Mid MO Valley MCV. Moderate buoyancy and vertical shear across this region could support a few strong to severe storms. More uncertainty exists farther south from central/southern MO into southern OK and the Arklatex (and potentially as far south as southeast TX). A majority of the CAM guidance has thunderstorm activity in this area, with the early morning storms over central OK gradually strengthening as they move southeastward where ample low-level moisture will support strong buoyancy. Given the linear storm mode, damaging gusts will be the primary severe threat. Limited predictability of this evolution merits keeping severe probabilities low with this forecast. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible along the dryline from western OK into the Edwards Plateau/western TX Hill Country. Any mature convection along the dryline should be supercellular, with a conditional threat for very large hail and damaging gusts. A surface low is expected to move northeastward across the northern Plains late Monday night through early Tuesday morning. A cold front will sweep southeastward in its wake, supporting isolated thunderstorm development. Limited buoyancy should mitigate the overall severe potential. ..Mosier.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Predominantly zonal flow is expected to be in place over the central CONUS early Monday morning, ahead of shortwave trough expected to progress from the Pacific Northwest into the northern High Plains. One or more vorticity maxima could exist from OK into the Upper Midwest, generated by overnight MCS activity. The most substantial overnight MCS is expected to move across NE, with the vorticity maximum associated with this activity likely near the Mid MO Valley vicinity. Another MCV could be over southeast OK/Arklatex vicinity. Additionally, thunderstorms may be ongoing across central OK early Monday morning. A warm and moist airmass will likely be in place from the central/southern Plains into Lower/Mid MS Valley, but the lack of notable shortwave troughs will result in mesoscale features, such as the previously mentioned vorticity maxima, acting as the primary impetus for thunderstorm development. Afternoon thunderstorm initiation currently appears most likely across southern WI and northern IL, downstream of the Mid MO Valley MCV. Moderate buoyancy and vertical shear across this region could support a few strong to severe storms. More uncertainty exists farther south from central/southern MO into southern OK and the Arklatex (and potentially as far south as southeast TX). A majority of the CAM guidance has thunderstorm activity in this area, with the early morning storms over central OK gradually strengthening as they move southeastward where ample low-level moisture will support strong buoyancy. Given the linear storm mode, damaging gusts will be the primary severe threat. Limited predictability of this evolution merits keeping severe probabilities low with this forecast. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible along the dryline from western OK into the Edwards Plateau/western TX Hill Country. Any mature convection along the dryline should be supercellular, with a conditional threat for very large hail and damaging gusts. A surface low is expected to move northeastward across the northern Plains late Monday night through early Tuesday morning. A cold front will sweep southeastward in its wake, supporting isolated thunderstorm development. Limited buoyancy should mitigate the overall severe potential. ..Mosier.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Predominantly zonal flow is expected to be in place over the central CONUS early Monday morning, ahead of shortwave trough expected to progress from the Pacific Northwest into the northern High Plains. One or more vorticity maxima could exist from OK into the Upper Midwest, generated by overnight MCS activity. The most substantial overnight MCS is expected to move across NE, with the vorticity maximum associated with this activity likely near the Mid MO Valley vicinity. Another MCV could be over southeast OK/Arklatex vicinity. Additionally, thunderstorms may be ongoing across central OK early Monday morning. A warm and moist airmass will likely be in place from the central/southern Plains into Lower/Mid MS Valley, but the lack of notable shortwave troughs will result in mesoscale features, such as the previously mentioned vorticity maxima, acting as the primary impetus for thunderstorm development. Afternoon thunderstorm initiation currently appears most likely across southern WI and northern IL, downstream of the Mid MO Valley MCV. Moderate buoyancy and vertical shear across this region could support a few strong to severe storms. More uncertainty exists farther south from central/southern MO into southern OK and the Arklatex (and potentially as far south as southeast TX). A majority of the CAM guidance has thunderstorm activity in this area, with the early morning storms over central OK gradually strengthening as they move southeastward where ample low-level moisture will support strong buoyancy. Given the linear storm mode, damaging gusts will be the primary severe threat. Limited predictability of this evolution merits keeping severe probabilities low with this forecast. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible along the dryline from western OK into the Edwards Plateau/western TX Hill Country. Any mature convection along the dryline should be supercellular, with a conditional threat for very large hail and damaging gusts. A surface low is expected to move northeastward across the northern Plains late Monday night through early Tuesday morning. A cold front will sweep southeastward in its wake, supporting isolated thunderstorm development. Limited buoyancy should mitigate the overall severe potential. ..Mosier.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across much of the Plains region this afternoon and evening, especially across the central Plains of Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Very large hail, severe gusts, possibly greater than 75 mph, and a few tornadoes are expected. ...Plains Region... Large-scale pattern has not changed appreciably across the CONUS with seasonally strong westerlies persisting across the northern tier States. Modest 500mb flow also extends along the southern international border region into south-central TX. Early this morning, a few small MCS-type clusters are ongoing across the southern Plains from southwest TX into northwest OK, with more isolated activity over the central Plains. This activity will propagate east-southeast and slowly weaken by daybreak. Early-day convection is not expected to be particularly strong. In the absence of meaningful height falls, it appears boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in convective development later this afternoon. Latest model guidance suggests surface-3km lapse rates will approach dry adiabatic along/west of the dryline from far West TX, north into the western Dakotas. By 21z CINH should be very weak and thunderstorms are expected to develop as convective temperatures are breached. While negligible height changes are expected across the Plains, a few weak disturbances will likely approach this boundary around peak heating. Of particular concern is the central High Plains. Water-vapor imagery depicts troughing across the northern Great Basin and 30-40kt 500 mb flow should be maintained north of I-70. Current thinking is scattered supercells should develop by late afternoon then propagate downstream into an air mass that will be very unstable. Forecast sounding for GLD at 01z from the NAM exhibits MLCAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg. With strong deep-layer shear these supercells may generate hail in excess of 2 inches. If this activity grows upscale then severe wind gusts will become more common. Some tornado risk exists during the initial supercell phase. Isolated-scattered supercells are also expected to develop south along the dryline to near the Mexican border. Forecast soundings across the southern High Plains also exhibit substantial instability with very steep lapse rates. Large hail may be common with this activity. Farther north, a notable short-wave trough is forecast to spread across MT/northern WY into the western Dakotas by 03/00z, but another weaker feature should spread into central ND by 18z. LLJ should respond to these features which will allow boundary-layer moisture to advance north into this region. Most guidance suggest lower 60s surface dew points will return across eastern SD into eastern ND; however, true lower 60s dew points have yet to advance beyond I-80 some this may be a bit optimistic. Regardless, large-scale support will encourage robust convection and scattered severe, including supercells, should develop ahead of primary frontal surge. Hail/wind are the main threats. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across much of the Plains region this afternoon and evening, especially across the central Plains of Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Very large hail, severe gusts, possibly greater than 75 mph, and a few tornadoes are expected. ...Plains Region... Large-scale pattern has not changed appreciably across the CONUS with seasonally strong westerlies persisting across the northern tier States. Modest 500mb flow also extends along the southern international border region into south-central TX. Early this morning, a few small MCS-type clusters are ongoing across the southern Plains from southwest TX into northwest OK, with more isolated activity over the central Plains. This activity will propagate east-southeast and slowly weaken by daybreak. Early-day convection is not expected to be particularly strong. In the absence of meaningful height falls, it appears boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in convective development later this afternoon. Latest model guidance suggests surface-3km lapse rates will approach dry adiabatic along/west of the dryline from far West TX, north into the western Dakotas. By 21z CINH should be very weak and thunderstorms are expected to develop as convective temperatures are breached. While negligible height changes are expected across the Plains, a few weak disturbances will likely approach this boundary around peak heating. Of particular concern is the central High Plains. Water-vapor imagery depicts troughing across the northern Great Basin and 30-40kt 500 mb flow should be maintained north of I-70. Current thinking is scattered supercells should develop by late afternoon then propagate downstream into an air mass that will be very unstable. Forecast sounding for GLD at 01z from the NAM exhibits MLCAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg. With strong deep-layer shear these supercells may generate hail in excess of 2 inches. If this activity grows upscale then severe wind gusts will become more common. Some tornado risk exists during the initial supercell phase. Isolated-scattered supercells are also expected to develop south along the dryline to near the Mexican border. Forecast soundings across the southern High Plains also exhibit substantial instability with very steep lapse rates. Large hail may be common with this activity. Farther north, a notable short-wave trough is forecast to spread across MT/northern WY into the western Dakotas by 03/00z, but another weaker feature should spread into central ND by 18z. LLJ should respond to these features which will allow boundary-layer moisture to advance north into this region. Most guidance suggest lower 60s surface dew points will return across eastern SD into eastern ND; however, true lower 60s dew points have yet to advance beyond I-80 some this may be a bit optimistic. Regardless, large-scale support will encourage robust convection and scattered severe, including supercells, should develop ahead of primary frontal surge. Hail/wind are the main threats. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across much of the Plains region this afternoon and evening, especially across the central Plains of Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Very large hail, severe gusts, possibly greater than 75 mph, and a few tornadoes are expected. ...Plains Region... Large-scale pattern has not changed appreciably across the CONUS with seasonally strong westerlies persisting across the northern tier States. Modest 500mb flow also extends along the southern international border region into south-central TX. Early this morning, a few small MCS-type clusters are ongoing across the southern Plains from southwest TX into northwest OK, with more isolated activity over the central Plains. This activity will propagate east-southeast and slowly weaken by daybreak. Early-day convection is not expected to be particularly strong. In the absence of meaningful height falls, it appears boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in convective development later this afternoon. Latest model guidance suggests surface-3km lapse rates will approach dry adiabatic along/west of the dryline from far West TX, north into the western Dakotas. By 21z CINH should be very weak and thunderstorms are expected to develop as convective temperatures are breached. While negligible height changes are expected across the Plains, a few weak disturbances will likely approach this boundary around peak heating. Of particular concern is the central High Plains. Water-vapor imagery depicts troughing across the northern Great Basin and 30-40kt 500 mb flow should be maintained north of I-70. Current thinking is scattered supercells should develop by late afternoon then propagate downstream into an air mass that will be very unstable. Forecast sounding for GLD at 01z from the NAM exhibits MLCAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg. With strong deep-layer shear these supercells may generate hail in excess of 2 inches. If this activity grows upscale then severe wind gusts will become more common. Some tornado risk exists during the initial supercell phase. Isolated-scattered supercells are also expected to develop south along the dryline to near the Mexican border. Forecast soundings across the southern High Plains also exhibit substantial instability with very steep lapse rates. Large hail may be common with this activity. Farther north, a notable short-wave trough is forecast to spread across MT/northern WY into the western Dakotas by 03/00z, but another weaker feature should spread into central ND by 18z. LLJ should respond to these features which will allow boundary-layer moisture to advance north into this region. Most guidance suggest lower 60s surface dew points will return across eastern SD into eastern ND; however, true lower 60s dew points have yet to advance beyond I-80 some this may be a bit optimistic. Regardless, large-scale support will encourage robust convection and scattered severe, including supercells, should develop ahead of primary frontal surge. Hail/wind are the main threats. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across much of the Plains region this afternoon and evening, especially across the central Plains of Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Very large hail, severe gusts, possibly greater than 75 mph, and a few tornadoes are expected. ...Plains Region... Large-scale pattern has not changed appreciably across the CONUS with seasonally strong westerlies persisting across the northern tier States. Modest 500mb flow also extends along the southern international border region into south-central TX. Early this morning, a few small MCS-type clusters are ongoing across the southern Plains from southwest TX into northwest OK, with more isolated activity over the central Plains. This activity will propagate east-southeast and slowly weaken by daybreak. Early-day convection is not expected to be particularly strong. In the absence of meaningful height falls, it appears boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in convective development later this afternoon. Latest model guidance suggests surface-3km lapse rates will approach dry adiabatic along/west of the dryline from far West TX, north into the western Dakotas. By 21z CINH should be very weak and thunderstorms are expected to develop as convective temperatures are breached. While negligible height changes are expected across the Plains, a few weak disturbances will likely approach this boundary around peak heating. Of particular concern is the central High Plains. Water-vapor imagery depicts troughing across the northern Great Basin and 30-40kt 500 mb flow should be maintained north of I-70. Current thinking is scattered supercells should develop by late afternoon then propagate downstream into an air mass that will be very unstable. Forecast sounding for GLD at 01z from the NAM exhibits MLCAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg. With strong deep-layer shear these supercells may generate hail in excess of 2 inches. If this activity grows upscale then severe wind gusts will become more common. Some tornado risk exists during the initial supercell phase. Isolated-scattered supercells are also expected to develop south along the dryline to near the Mexican border. Forecast soundings across the southern High Plains also exhibit substantial instability with very steep lapse rates. Large hail may be common with this activity. Farther north, a notable short-wave trough is forecast to spread across MT/northern WY into the western Dakotas by 03/00z, but another weaker feature should spread into central ND by 18z. LLJ should respond to these features which will allow boundary-layer moisture to advance north into this region. Most guidance suggest lower 60s surface dew points will return across eastern SD into eastern ND; however, true lower 60s dew points have yet to advance beyond I-80 some this may be a bit optimistic. Regardless, large-scale support will encourage robust convection and scattered severe, including supercells, should develop ahead of primary frontal surge. Hail/wind are the main threats. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across much of the Plains region this afternoon and evening, especially across the central Plains of Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Very large hail, severe gusts, possibly greater than 75 mph, and a few tornadoes are expected. ...Plains Region... Large-scale pattern has not changed appreciably across the CONUS with seasonally strong westerlies persisting across the northern tier States. Modest 500mb flow also extends along the southern international border region into south-central TX. Early this morning, a few small MCS-type clusters are ongoing across the southern Plains from southwest TX into northwest OK, with more isolated activity over the central Plains. This activity will propagate east-southeast and slowly weaken by daybreak. Early-day convection is not expected to be particularly strong. In the absence of meaningful height falls, it appears boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in convective development later this afternoon. Latest model guidance suggests surface-3km lapse rates will approach dry adiabatic along/west of the dryline from far West TX, north into the western Dakotas. By 21z CINH should be very weak and thunderstorms are expected to develop as convective temperatures are breached. While negligible height changes are expected across the Plains, a few weak disturbances will likely approach this boundary around peak heating. Of particular concern is the central High Plains. Water-vapor imagery depicts troughing across the northern Great Basin and 30-40kt 500 mb flow should be maintained north of I-70. Current thinking is scattered supercells should develop by late afternoon then propagate downstream into an air mass that will be very unstable. Forecast sounding for GLD at 01z from the NAM exhibits MLCAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg. With strong deep-layer shear these supercells may generate hail in excess of 2 inches. If this activity grows upscale then severe wind gusts will become more common. Some tornado risk exists during the initial supercell phase. Isolated-scattered supercells are also expected to develop south along the dryline to near the Mexican border. Forecast soundings across the southern High Plains also exhibit substantial instability with very steep lapse rates. Large hail may be common with this activity. Farther north, a notable short-wave trough is forecast to spread across MT/northern WY into the western Dakotas by 03/00z, but another weaker feature should spread into central ND by 18z. LLJ should respond to these features which will allow boundary-layer moisture to advance north into this region. Most guidance suggest lower 60s surface dew points will return across eastern SD into eastern ND; however, true lower 60s dew points have yet to advance beyond I-80 some this may be a bit optimistic. Regardless, large-scale support will encourage robust convection and scattered severe, including supercells, should develop ahead of primary frontal surge. Hail/wind are the main threats. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across much of the Plains region this afternoon and evening, especially across the central Plains of Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Very large hail, severe gusts, possibly greater than 75 mph, and a few tornadoes are expected. ...Plains Region... Large-scale pattern has not changed appreciably across the CONUS with seasonally strong westerlies persisting across the northern tier States. Modest 500mb flow also extends along the southern international border region into south-central TX. Early this morning, a few small MCS-type clusters are ongoing across the southern Plains from southwest TX into northwest OK, with more isolated activity over the central Plains. This activity will propagate east-southeast and slowly weaken by daybreak. Early-day convection is not expected to be particularly strong. In the absence of meaningful height falls, it appears boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in convective development later this afternoon. Latest model guidance suggests surface-3km lapse rates will approach dry adiabatic along/west of the dryline from far West TX, north into the western Dakotas. By 21z CINH should be very weak and thunderstorms are expected to develop as convective temperatures are breached. While negligible height changes are expected across the Plains, a few weak disturbances will likely approach this boundary around peak heating. Of particular concern is the central High Plains. Water-vapor imagery depicts troughing across the northern Great Basin and 30-40kt 500 mb flow should be maintained north of I-70. Current thinking is scattered supercells should develop by late afternoon then propagate downstream into an air mass that will be very unstable. Forecast sounding for GLD at 01z from the NAM exhibits MLCAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg. With strong deep-layer shear these supercells may generate hail in excess of 2 inches. If this activity grows upscale then severe wind gusts will become more common. Some tornado risk exists during the initial supercell phase. Isolated-scattered supercells are also expected to develop south along the dryline to near the Mexican border. Forecast soundings across the southern High Plains also exhibit substantial instability with very steep lapse rates. Large hail may be common with this activity. Farther north, a notable short-wave trough is forecast to spread across MT/northern WY into the western Dakotas by 03/00z, but another weaker feature should spread into central ND by 18z. LLJ should respond to these features which will allow boundary-layer moisture to advance north into this region. Most guidance suggest lower 60s surface dew points will return across eastern SD into eastern ND; however, true lower 60s dew points have yet to advance beyond I-80 some this may be a bit optimistic. Regardless, large-scale support will encourage robust convection and scattered severe, including supercells, should develop ahead of primary frontal surge. Hail/wind are the main threats. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across much of the Plains region this afternoon and evening, especially across the central Plains of Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Very large hail, severe gusts, possibly greater than 75 mph, and a few tornadoes are expected. ...Plains Region... Large-scale pattern has not changed appreciably across the CONUS with seasonally strong westerlies persisting across the northern tier States. Modest 500mb flow also extends along the southern international border region into south-central TX. Early this morning, a few small MCS-type clusters are ongoing across the southern Plains from southwest TX into northwest OK, with more isolated activity over the central Plains. This activity will propagate east-southeast and slowly weaken by daybreak. Early-day convection is not expected to be particularly strong. In the absence of meaningful height falls, it appears boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in convective development later this afternoon. Latest model guidance suggests surface-3km lapse rates will approach dry adiabatic along/west of the dryline from far West TX, north into the western Dakotas. By 21z CINH should be very weak and thunderstorms are expected to develop as convective temperatures are breached. While negligible height changes are expected across the Plains, a few weak disturbances will likely approach this boundary around peak heating. Of particular concern is the central High Plains. Water-vapor imagery depicts troughing across the northern Great Basin and 30-40kt 500 mb flow should be maintained north of I-70. Current thinking is scattered supercells should develop by late afternoon then propagate downstream into an air mass that will be very unstable. Forecast sounding for GLD at 01z from the NAM exhibits MLCAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg. With strong deep-layer shear these supercells may generate hail in excess of 2 inches. If this activity grows upscale then severe wind gusts will become more common. Some tornado risk exists during the initial supercell phase. Isolated-scattered supercells are also expected to develop south along the dryline to near the Mexican border. Forecast soundings across the southern High Plains also exhibit substantial instability with very steep lapse rates. Large hail may be common with this activity. Farther north, a notable short-wave trough is forecast to spread across MT/northern WY into the western Dakotas by 03/00z, but another weaker feature should spread into central ND by 18z. LLJ should respond to these features which will allow boundary-layer moisture to advance north into this region. Most guidance suggest lower 60s surface dew points will return across eastern SD into eastern ND; however, true lower 60s dew points have yet to advance beyond I-80 some this may be a bit optimistic. Regardless, large-scale support will encourage robust convection and scattered severe, including supercells, should develop ahead of primary frontal surge. Hail/wind are the main threats. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across much of the Plains region this afternoon and evening, especially across the central Plains of Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Very large hail, severe gusts, possibly greater than 75 mph, and a few tornadoes are expected. ...Plains Region... Large-scale pattern has not changed appreciably across the CONUS with seasonally strong westerlies persisting across the northern tier States. Modest 500mb flow also extends along the southern international border region into south-central TX. Early this morning, a few small MCS-type clusters are ongoing across the southern Plains from southwest TX into northwest OK, with more isolated activity over the central Plains. This activity will propagate east-southeast and slowly weaken by daybreak. Early-day convection is not expected to be particularly strong. In the absence of meaningful height falls, it appears boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in convective development later this afternoon. Latest model guidance suggests surface-3km lapse rates will approach dry adiabatic along/west of the dryline from far West TX, north into the western Dakotas. By 21z CINH should be very weak and thunderstorms are expected to develop as convective temperatures are breached. While negligible height changes are expected across the Plains, a few weak disturbances will likely approach this boundary around peak heating. Of particular concern is the central High Plains. Water-vapor imagery depicts troughing across the northern Great Basin and 30-40kt 500 mb flow should be maintained north of I-70. Current thinking is scattered supercells should develop by late afternoon then propagate downstream into an air mass that will be very unstable. Forecast sounding for GLD at 01z from the NAM exhibits MLCAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg. With strong deep-layer shear these supercells may generate hail in excess of 2 inches. If this activity grows upscale then severe wind gusts will become more common. Some tornado risk exists during the initial supercell phase. Isolated-scattered supercells are also expected to develop south along the dryline to near the Mexican border. Forecast soundings across the southern High Plains also exhibit substantial instability with very steep lapse rates. Large hail may be common with this activity. Farther north, a notable short-wave trough is forecast to spread across MT/northern WY into the western Dakotas by 03/00z, but another weaker feature should spread into central ND by 18z. LLJ should respond to these features which will allow boundary-layer moisture to advance north into this region. Most guidance suggest lower 60s surface dew points will return across eastern SD into eastern ND; however, true lower 60s dew points have yet to advance beyond I-80 some this may be a bit optimistic. Regardless, large-scale support will encourage robust convection and scattered severe, including supercells, should develop ahead of primary frontal surge. Hail/wind are the main threats. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across much of the Plains region this afternoon and evening, especially across the central Plains of Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Very large hail, severe gusts, possibly greater than 75 mph, and a few tornadoes are expected. ...Plains Region... Large-scale pattern has not changed appreciably across the CONUS with seasonally strong westerlies persisting across the northern tier States. Modest 500mb flow also extends along the southern international border region into south-central TX. Early this morning, a few small MCS-type clusters are ongoing across the southern Plains from southwest TX into northwest OK, with more isolated activity over the central Plains. This activity will propagate east-southeast and slowly weaken by daybreak. Early-day convection is not expected to be particularly strong. In the absence of meaningful height falls, it appears boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in convective development later this afternoon. Latest model guidance suggests surface-3km lapse rates will approach dry adiabatic along/west of the dryline from far West TX, north into the western Dakotas. By 21z CINH should be very weak and thunderstorms are expected to develop as convective temperatures are breached. While negligible height changes are expected across the Plains, a few weak disturbances will likely approach this boundary around peak heating. Of particular concern is the central High Plains. Water-vapor imagery depicts troughing across the northern Great Basin and 30-40kt 500 mb flow should be maintained north of I-70. Current thinking is scattered supercells should develop by late afternoon then propagate downstream into an air mass that will be very unstable. Forecast sounding for GLD at 01z from the NAM exhibits MLCAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg. With strong deep-layer shear these supercells may generate hail in excess of 2 inches. If this activity grows upscale then severe wind gusts will become more common. Some tornado risk exists during the initial supercell phase. Isolated-scattered supercells are also expected to develop south along the dryline to near the Mexican border. Forecast soundings across the southern High Plains also exhibit substantial instability with very steep lapse rates. Large hail may be common with this activity. Farther north, a notable short-wave trough is forecast to spread across MT/northern WY into the western Dakotas by 03/00z, but another weaker feature should spread into central ND by 18z. LLJ should respond to these features which will allow boundary-layer moisture to advance north into this region. Most guidance suggest lower 60s surface dew points will return across eastern SD into eastern ND; however, true lower 60s dew points have yet to advance beyond I-80 some this may be a bit optimistic. Regardless, large-scale support will encourage robust convection and scattered severe, including supercells, should develop ahead of primary frontal surge. Hail/wind are the main threats. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 06/02/2024 Read more

WW 0370 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 370 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 NE BGD TO 25 SE GUY TO 20 SSE P28. WW 370 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 020600Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1121. ..GRAMS..06/02/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 370 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC003-043-045-093-129-151-153-020600- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA DEWEY ELLIS MAJOR ROGER MILLS WOODS WOODWARD TXC211-295-357-393-020600- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HEMPHILL LIPSCOMB OCHILTREE ROBERTS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0370 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 370 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 NE BGD TO 25 SE GUY TO 20 SSE P28. WW 370 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 020600Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1121. ..GRAMS..06/02/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 370 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC003-043-045-093-129-151-153-020600- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA DEWEY ELLIS MAJOR ROGER MILLS WOODS WOODWARD TXC211-295-357-393-020600- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HEMPHILL LIPSCOMB OCHILTREE ROBERTS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 370 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 020035Z - 020600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 370 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 735 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Oklahoma Northern Texas Panhandle * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 735 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms over southwest Kansas will move southeastward into the watch area this evening, with locally damaging winds and hail possible in the stronger cells. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles southwest of Guymon OK to 15 miles east southeast of Alva OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 366...WW 367...WW 368...WW 369... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29030. ...Hart Read more

MD 1120 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1120 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Areas affected...Southwest Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 020308Z - 020515Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A severe threat appears likely to develop across parts of southwest Texas this evening. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary threats. Weather watch issuance appears likely. DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery near Del Rio, TX shows an organized bowing line segment over far northern Mexico, which is moving eastward around 25 knots. The storm is expected to move into the stronger instability across southwest Texas, where MLCAPE is estimated in the 3500 to 4000 J/kg range. In addition, the WSR-88D VWP at Del Rio has 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 40 knot range with a substantial amount of directional shear in the lowest 3 km. This shear environment will be favorable for continued severe storm development, as a bowing line segment remains organized and moves into the southwestern Texas Hill Country late this evening. Severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats. ..Broyles/Hart.. 06/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 28640045 28490002 28619934 28829904 29379909 30149974 30270049 30220146 29980175 29700165 29300105 28640045 Read more

WW 0371 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 371 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..06/02/24 ATTN...WFO...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 371 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC137-271-323-385-463-465-507-020540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EDWARDS KINNEY MAVERICK REAL UVALDE VAL VERDE ZAVALA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more