Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Zonal flow aloft is forecast to transition to northwesterly through the forecast period as mid-level ridging builds over the West Coast. At the same time, a shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will intensify as it ejects eastward into the Plains. At the surface, several lee lows are forecast to develop from eastern MT into the southern Plains. A cold front will move south over the Rockies and central US ushering in a slightly cooler air mass. Increasing moisture and weaker winds are expected over parts of the Southwest in the wake of the front and as ridging limits westerly flow aloft. The net result will be much less overlap of dry and windy conditions into parts of NM, AZ and far west TX. While a few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ..Lyons.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Zonal flow aloft is forecast to transition to northwesterly through the forecast period as mid-level ridging builds over the West Coast. At the same time, a shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will intensify as it ejects eastward into the Plains. At the surface, several lee lows are forecast to develop from eastern MT into the southern Plains. A cold front will move south over the Rockies and central US ushering in a slightly cooler air mass. Increasing moisture and weaker winds are expected over parts of the Southwest in the wake of the front and as ridging limits westerly flow aloft. The net result will be much less overlap of dry and windy conditions into parts of NM, AZ and far west TX. While a few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ..Lyons.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Zonal flow aloft is forecast to transition to northwesterly through the forecast period as mid-level ridging builds over the West Coast. At the same time, a shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will intensify as it ejects eastward into the Plains. At the surface, several lee lows are forecast to develop from eastern MT into the southern Plains. A cold front will move south over the Rockies and central US ushering in a slightly cooler air mass. Increasing moisture and weaker winds are expected over parts of the Southwest in the wake of the front and as ridging limits westerly flow aloft. The net result will be much less overlap of dry and windy conditions into parts of NM, AZ and far west TX. While a few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ..Lyons.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Zonal flow aloft is forecast to transition to northwesterly through the forecast period as mid-level ridging builds over the West Coast. At the same time, a shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will intensify as it ejects eastward into the Plains. At the surface, several lee lows are forecast to develop from eastern MT into the southern Plains. A cold front will move south over the Rockies and central US ushering in a slightly cooler air mass. Increasing moisture and weaker winds are expected over parts of the Southwest in the wake of the front and as ridging limits westerly flow aloft. The net result will be much less overlap of dry and windy conditions into parts of NM, AZ and far west TX. While a few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ..Lyons.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Zonal flow aloft is forecast to transition to northwesterly through the forecast period as mid-level ridging builds over the West Coast. At the same time, a shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will intensify as it ejects eastward into the Plains. At the surface, several lee lows are forecast to develop from eastern MT into the southern Plains. A cold front will move south over the Rockies and central US ushering in a slightly cooler air mass. Increasing moisture and weaker winds are expected over parts of the Southwest in the wake of the front and as ridging limits westerly flow aloft. The net result will be much less overlap of dry and windy conditions into parts of NM, AZ and far west TX. While a few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ..Lyons.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Broad and weak zonal flow will continue over parts of the Southwest and southern US as a subtle shortwave moves eastward into the Plains. Gusty winds are possible over parts of NM and west TX where receptive fuels and hot/dry temperatures are also expected. ...New Mexico and far West TX... Despite being weaker than the past several days, westerly mid-level flow should remain strong enough to bolster surface winds to around 10-15 MPH over parts of central/eastern NM and far West TX this afternoon behind a dryline. With RH values in the low teens and temperatures of 90+ F, the dry and breezy air mass will likely support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential within receptive fuels. The most likely corridor for more sustained and stronger winds will be closer to the dryline/surface trough across far west TX. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions may also extend farther west in to central AZ. While winds are expected to be more sporadic, dry surface conditions along the Mogollon Rim have allowed for continued drying of fuels. As such, at least a few hours of 15-20 mph wind gusts and RH below 15% may support some elevated fire-weather risk. ..Lyons.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Broad and weak zonal flow will continue over parts of the Southwest and southern US as a subtle shortwave moves eastward into the Plains. Gusty winds are possible over parts of NM and west TX where receptive fuels and hot/dry temperatures are also expected. ...New Mexico and far West TX... Despite being weaker than the past several days, westerly mid-level flow should remain strong enough to bolster surface winds to around 10-15 MPH over parts of central/eastern NM and far West TX this afternoon behind a dryline. With RH values in the low teens and temperatures of 90+ F, the dry and breezy air mass will likely support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential within receptive fuels. The most likely corridor for more sustained and stronger winds will be closer to the dryline/surface trough across far west TX. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions may also extend farther west in to central AZ. While winds are expected to be more sporadic, dry surface conditions along the Mogollon Rim have allowed for continued drying of fuels. As such, at least a few hours of 15-20 mph wind gusts and RH below 15% may support some elevated fire-weather risk. ..Lyons.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Broad and weak zonal flow will continue over parts of the Southwest and southern US as a subtle shortwave moves eastward into the Plains. Gusty winds are possible over parts of NM and west TX where receptive fuels and hot/dry temperatures are also expected. ...New Mexico and far West TX... Despite being weaker than the past several days, westerly mid-level flow should remain strong enough to bolster surface winds to around 10-15 MPH over parts of central/eastern NM and far West TX this afternoon behind a dryline. With RH values in the low teens and temperatures of 90+ F, the dry and breezy air mass will likely support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential within receptive fuels. The most likely corridor for more sustained and stronger winds will be closer to the dryline/surface trough across far west TX. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions may also extend farther west in to central AZ. While winds are expected to be more sporadic, dry surface conditions along the Mogollon Rim have allowed for continued drying of fuels. As such, at least a few hours of 15-20 mph wind gusts and RH below 15% may support some elevated fire-weather risk. ..Lyons.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Broad and weak zonal flow will continue over parts of the Southwest and southern US as a subtle shortwave moves eastward into the Plains. Gusty winds are possible over parts of NM and west TX where receptive fuels and hot/dry temperatures are also expected. ...New Mexico and far West TX... Despite being weaker than the past several days, westerly mid-level flow should remain strong enough to bolster surface winds to around 10-15 MPH over parts of central/eastern NM and far West TX this afternoon behind a dryline. With RH values in the low teens and temperatures of 90+ F, the dry and breezy air mass will likely support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential within receptive fuels. The most likely corridor for more sustained and stronger winds will be closer to the dryline/surface trough across far west TX. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions may also extend farther west in to central AZ. While winds are expected to be more sporadic, dry surface conditions along the Mogollon Rim have allowed for continued drying of fuels. As such, at least a few hours of 15-20 mph wind gusts and RH below 15% may support some elevated fire-weather risk. ..Lyons.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Broad and weak zonal flow will continue over parts of the Southwest and southern US as a subtle shortwave moves eastward into the Plains. Gusty winds are possible over parts of NM and west TX where receptive fuels and hot/dry temperatures are also expected. ...New Mexico and far West TX... Despite being weaker than the past several days, westerly mid-level flow should remain strong enough to bolster surface winds to around 10-15 MPH over parts of central/eastern NM and far West TX this afternoon behind a dryline. With RH values in the low teens and temperatures of 90+ F, the dry and breezy air mass will likely support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential within receptive fuels. The most likely corridor for more sustained and stronger winds will be closer to the dryline/surface trough across far west TX. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions may also extend farther west in to central AZ. While winds are expected to be more sporadic, dry surface conditions along the Mogollon Rim have allowed for continued drying of fuels. As such, at least a few hours of 15-20 mph wind gusts and RH below 15% may support some elevated fire-weather risk. ..Lyons.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Broad and weak zonal flow will continue over parts of the Southwest and southern US as a subtle shortwave moves eastward into the Plains. Gusty winds are possible over parts of NM and west TX where receptive fuels and hot/dry temperatures are also expected. ...New Mexico and far West TX... Despite being weaker than the past several days, westerly mid-level flow should remain strong enough to bolster surface winds to around 10-15 MPH over parts of central/eastern NM and far West TX this afternoon behind a dryline. With RH values in the low teens and temperatures of 90+ F, the dry and breezy air mass will likely support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential within receptive fuels. The most likely corridor for more sustained and stronger winds will be closer to the dryline/surface trough across far west TX. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions may also extend farther west in to central AZ. While winds are expected to be more sporadic, dry surface conditions along the Mogollon Rim have allowed for continued drying of fuels. As such, at least a few hours of 15-20 mph wind gusts and RH below 15% may support some elevated fire-weather risk. ..Lyons.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Broad and weak zonal flow will continue over parts of the Southwest and southern US as a subtle shortwave moves eastward into the Plains. Gusty winds are possible over parts of NM and west TX where receptive fuels and hot/dry temperatures are also expected. ...New Mexico and far West TX... Despite being weaker than the past several days, westerly mid-level flow should remain strong enough to bolster surface winds to around 10-15 MPH over parts of central/eastern NM and far West TX this afternoon behind a dryline. With RH values in the low teens and temperatures of 90+ F, the dry and breezy air mass will likely support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential within receptive fuels. The most likely corridor for more sustained and stronger winds will be closer to the dryline/surface trough across far west TX. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions may also extend farther west in to central AZ. While winds are expected to be more sporadic, dry surface conditions along the Mogollon Rim have allowed for continued drying of fuels. As such, at least a few hours of 15-20 mph wind gusts and RH below 15% may support some elevated fire-weather risk. ..Lyons.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Broad and weak zonal flow will continue over parts of the Southwest and southern US as a subtle shortwave moves eastward into the Plains. Gusty winds are possible over parts of NM and west TX where receptive fuels and hot/dry temperatures are also expected. ...New Mexico and far West TX... Despite being weaker than the past several days, westerly mid-level flow should remain strong enough to bolster surface winds to around 10-15 MPH over parts of central/eastern NM and far West TX this afternoon behind a dryline. With RH values in the low teens and temperatures of 90+ F, the dry and breezy air mass will likely support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential within receptive fuels. The most likely corridor for more sustained and stronger winds will be closer to the dryline/surface trough across far west TX. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions may also extend farther west in to central AZ. While winds are expected to be more sporadic, dry surface conditions along the Mogollon Rim have allowed for continued drying of fuels. As such, at least a few hours of 15-20 mph wind gusts and RH below 15% may support some elevated fire-weather risk. ..Lyons.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Broad and weak zonal flow will continue over parts of the Southwest and southern US as a subtle shortwave moves eastward into the Plains. Gusty winds are possible over parts of NM and west TX where receptive fuels and hot/dry temperatures are also expected. ...New Mexico and far West TX... Despite being weaker than the past several days, westerly mid-level flow should remain strong enough to bolster surface winds to around 10-15 MPH over parts of central/eastern NM and far West TX this afternoon behind a dryline. With RH values in the low teens and temperatures of 90+ F, the dry and breezy air mass will likely support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential within receptive fuels. The most likely corridor for more sustained and stronger winds will be closer to the dryline/surface trough across far west TX. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions may also extend farther west in to central AZ. While winds are expected to be more sporadic, dry surface conditions along the Mogollon Rim have allowed for continued drying of fuels. As such, at least a few hours of 15-20 mph wind gusts and RH below 15% may support some elevated fire-weather risk. ..Lyons.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Broad and weak zonal flow will continue over parts of the Southwest and southern US as a subtle shortwave moves eastward into the Plains. Gusty winds are possible over parts of NM and west TX where receptive fuels and hot/dry temperatures are also expected. ...New Mexico and far West TX... Despite being weaker than the past several days, westerly mid-level flow should remain strong enough to bolster surface winds to around 10-15 MPH over parts of central/eastern NM and far West TX this afternoon behind a dryline. With RH values in the low teens and temperatures of 90+ F, the dry and breezy air mass will likely support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential within receptive fuels. The most likely corridor for more sustained and stronger winds will be closer to the dryline/surface trough across far west TX. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions may also extend farther west in to central AZ. While winds are expected to be more sporadic, dry surface conditions along the Mogollon Rim have allowed for continued drying of fuels. As such, at least a few hours of 15-20 mph wind gusts and RH below 15% may support some elevated fire-weather risk. ..Lyons.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Broad and weak zonal flow will continue over parts of the Southwest and southern US as a subtle shortwave moves eastward into the Plains. Gusty winds are possible over parts of NM and west TX where receptive fuels and hot/dry temperatures are also expected. ...New Mexico and far West TX... Despite being weaker than the past several days, westerly mid-level flow should remain strong enough to bolster surface winds to around 10-15 MPH over parts of central/eastern NM and far West TX this afternoon behind a dryline. With RH values in the low teens and temperatures of 90+ F, the dry and breezy air mass will likely support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential within receptive fuels. The most likely corridor for more sustained and stronger winds will be closer to the dryline/surface trough across far west TX. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions may also extend farther west in to central AZ. While winds are expected to be more sporadic, dry surface conditions along the Mogollon Rim have allowed for continued drying of fuels. As such, at least a few hours of 15-20 mph wind gusts and RH below 15% may support some elevated fire-weather risk. ..Lyons.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Broad and weak zonal flow will continue over parts of the Southwest and southern US as a subtle shortwave moves eastward into the Plains. Gusty winds are possible over parts of NM and west TX where receptive fuels and hot/dry temperatures are also expected. ...New Mexico and far West TX... Despite being weaker than the past several days, westerly mid-level flow should remain strong enough to bolster surface winds to around 10-15 MPH over parts of central/eastern NM and far West TX this afternoon behind a dryline. With RH values in the low teens and temperatures of 90+ F, the dry and breezy air mass will likely support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential within receptive fuels. The most likely corridor for more sustained and stronger winds will be closer to the dryline/surface trough across far west TX. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions may also extend farther west in to central AZ. While winds are expected to be more sporadic, dry surface conditions along the Mogollon Rim have allowed for continued drying of fuels. As such, at least a few hours of 15-20 mph wind gusts and RH below 15% may support some elevated fire-weather risk. ..Lyons.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Broad and weak zonal flow will continue over parts of the Southwest and southern US as a subtle shortwave moves eastward into the Plains. Gusty winds are possible over parts of NM and west TX where receptive fuels and hot/dry temperatures are also expected. ...New Mexico and far West TX... Despite being weaker than the past several days, westerly mid-level flow should remain strong enough to bolster surface winds to around 10-15 MPH over parts of central/eastern NM and far West TX this afternoon behind a dryline. With RH values in the low teens and temperatures of 90+ F, the dry and breezy air mass will likely support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential within receptive fuels. The most likely corridor for more sustained and stronger winds will be closer to the dryline/surface trough across far west TX. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions may also extend farther west in to central AZ. While winds are expected to be more sporadic, dry surface conditions along the Mogollon Rim have allowed for continued drying of fuels. As such, at least a few hours of 15-20 mph wind gusts and RH below 15% may support some elevated fire-weather risk. ..Lyons.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0383 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0383 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible from the Upper Midwest into the Middle/Lower Missouri Valley on Tuesday. ...Upper MS Valley into the Mid MO Valley... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across the northern/central Plains into the Upper/Mid MS Valley, becoming increasingly negatively tilted as it does. Primary surface low associated with this shortwave is expected to be over central Saskatchewan early Tuesday, but secondary low is anticipated at the triple point. This secondary low is forecast to move from the ND/SD/MN border intersection vicinity eastward across central MN and northern WI while an attendant cold front sweeps southeastward across the Upper and Mid MS Valleys. Much of the guidance has upper 60s dewpoints in place ahead of this front, helping to support moderate buoyancy across the Upper MS Valley despite limited heating (i.e. highs only in the mid to upper 70s). Slightly greater buoyancy is possible farther south in from southeast NE/southern IA into northeast KS/northwest MO where stronger daytime heating is possible (i.e. highs in the mid 80s). Thunderstorm development is anticipated as the approaching cold front impinges on this low-level moisture and buoyancy. Limited buoyancy and more meridional deep-layer flow will likely temper the severe potential across the Upper MS Valley with a multicellular, anafrontal storm mode most likely. Some isolated damaging gusts and/or hail is still possible. Greater severe potential is possible across the Mid MO valley, where stronger buoyancy and more zonal/boundary-parallel deep-layer shear is anticipated. An initially more cellular mode is possible, with large hail as the primary severe risk. A relatively quick transition to a more linear mode is likely, with damaging gusts becoming the primary risk. ...KS/OK.. A surface low will likely be over the southwest KS/northwest OK vicinity early Tuesday morning. This low may shift gradually northeastward while another low develops farther south over northwest TX where strong diurnal heating and southwesterly low-level flow will help push temperatures over 100. Modest troughing will extend between these two lows during the afternoon/evening. The influence of the front will be much less across OK and KS versus areas farther north. Instead, convergence along the troughing connecting the two surface lows and strong heating may be enough to over the capping. Mid-level temperatures will be quite warm (i.e. from 12 to 14 deg C at 700 mb), but if convective initiation is realized, ample low-level moisture will support robust updrafts capable of large to very large hail and damaging gusts. Uncertainty regarding initiation precludes anything but 5% hail/wind probabilities with this outlook. ...Elsewhere... One or more convectively generated vorticity maxima are possible across the eastern CONUS, including one over the Mid MS Valley and another over the Mid-South early Tuesday. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of these maxima during the afternoon as the airmass destabilizes, but weak shear should keep the severe potential low. ..Mosier.. 06/03/2024 Read more