Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible along a eastward-progressing cold front from the Upper Great Lakes into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. The probability of severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis... A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over central/southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba early Wednesday morning, with troughing associated with the cyclone stretching across the Upper Midwest into the Lower OH Valley. A shortwave trough is expected to move quickly through the base of this cyclone, from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes with another closed mid-level circulation developing over the Upper Great Lakes/eastern Ontario late Wednesday evening/early Thursday morning. Evolution of this shortwave trough will encourage a more eastward progression of the triple point surface low expected to be in the western Upper MI vicinity early Wednesday. A cold front will likely extend southward from this low through central IL before then extending more southwestward across southern MO and eastern/south-central OK into northwest TX. As this low moves eastward into central/eastern Ontario, the associated front will progress eastward across MI and much of the TN and OH Valleys. Thunderstorm are likely along and ahead of this front, but modest buoyancy and shear should limit the severe potential. Western extent of the front (i.e. from northwest TX into the Arklatex) will only make modest southward progress, with limited convergence along the boundary. Warm mid-level temperatures are currently expected to suppress deep convection, but ample low-level moisture and strong buoyancy will be in place, supporting a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms if convective initiation is realized. ..Mosier.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible along a eastward-progressing cold front from the Upper Great Lakes into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. The probability of severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis... A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over central/southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba early Wednesday morning, with troughing associated with the cyclone stretching across the Upper Midwest into the Lower OH Valley. A shortwave trough is expected to move quickly through the base of this cyclone, from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes with another closed mid-level circulation developing over the Upper Great Lakes/eastern Ontario late Wednesday evening/early Thursday morning. Evolution of this shortwave trough will encourage a more eastward progression of the triple point surface low expected to be in the western Upper MI vicinity early Wednesday. A cold front will likely extend southward from this low through central IL before then extending more southwestward across southern MO and eastern/south-central OK into northwest TX. As this low moves eastward into central/eastern Ontario, the associated front will progress eastward across MI and much of the TN and OH Valleys. Thunderstorm are likely along and ahead of this front, but modest buoyancy and shear should limit the severe potential. Western extent of the front (i.e. from northwest TX into the Arklatex) will only make modest southward progress, with limited convergence along the boundary. Warm mid-level temperatures are currently expected to suppress deep convection, but ample low-level moisture and strong buoyancy will be in place, supporting a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms if convective initiation is realized. ..Mosier.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible along a eastward-progressing cold front from the Upper Great Lakes into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. The probability of severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis... A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over central/southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba early Wednesday morning, with troughing associated with the cyclone stretching across the Upper Midwest into the Lower OH Valley. A shortwave trough is expected to move quickly through the base of this cyclone, from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes with another closed mid-level circulation developing over the Upper Great Lakes/eastern Ontario late Wednesday evening/early Thursday morning. Evolution of this shortwave trough will encourage a more eastward progression of the triple point surface low expected to be in the western Upper MI vicinity early Wednesday. A cold front will likely extend southward from this low through central IL before then extending more southwestward across southern MO and eastern/south-central OK into northwest TX. As this low moves eastward into central/eastern Ontario, the associated front will progress eastward across MI and much of the TN and OH Valleys. Thunderstorm are likely along and ahead of this front, but modest buoyancy and shear should limit the severe potential. Western extent of the front (i.e. from northwest TX into the Arklatex) will only make modest southward progress, with limited convergence along the boundary. Warm mid-level temperatures are currently expected to suppress deep convection, but ample low-level moisture and strong buoyancy will be in place, supporting a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms if convective initiation is realized. ..Mosier.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible along a eastward-progressing cold front from the Upper Great Lakes into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. The probability of severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis... A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over central/southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba early Wednesday morning, with troughing associated with the cyclone stretching across the Upper Midwest into the Lower OH Valley. A shortwave trough is expected to move quickly through the base of this cyclone, from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes with another closed mid-level circulation developing over the Upper Great Lakes/eastern Ontario late Wednesday evening/early Thursday morning. Evolution of this shortwave trough will encourage a more eastward progression of the triple point surface low expected to be in the western Upper MI vicinity early Wednesday. A cold front will likely extend southward from this low through central IL before then extending more southwestward across southern MO and eastern/south-central OK into northwest TX. As this low moves eastward into central/eastern Ontario, the associated front will progress eastward across MI and much of the TN and OH Valleys. Thunderstorm are likely along and ahead of this front, but modest buoyancy and shear should limit the severe potential. Western extent of the front (i.e. from northwest TX into the Arklatex) will only make modest southward progress, with limited convergence along the boundary. Warm mid-level temperatures are currently expected to suppress deep convection, but ample low-level moisture and strong buoyancy will be in place, supporting a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms if convective initiation is realized. ..Mosier.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible along a eastward-progressing cold front from the Upper Great Lakes into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. The probability of severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis... A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over central/southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba early Wednesday morning, with troughing associated with the cyclone stretching across the Upper Midwest into the Lower OH Valley. A shortwave trough is expected to move quickly through the base of this cyclone, from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes with another closed mid-level circulation developing over the Upper Great Lakes/eastern Ontario late Wednesday evening/early Thursday morning. Evolution of this shortwave trough will encourage a more eastward progression of the triple point surface low expected to be in the western Upper MI vicinity early Wednesday. A cold front will likely extend southward from this low through central IL before then extending more southwestward across southern MO and eastern/south-central OK into northwest TX. As this low moves eastward into central/eastern Ontario, the associated front will progress eastward across MI and much of the TN and OH Valleys. Thunderstorm are likely along and ahead of this front, but modest buoyancy and shear should limit the severe potential. Western extent of the front (i.e. from northwest TX into the Arklatex) will only make modest southward progress, with limited convergence along the boundary. Warm mid-level temperatures are currently expected to suppress deep convection, but ample low-level moisture and strong buoyancy will be in place, supporting a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms if convective initiation is realized. ..Mosier.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible along a eastward-progressing cold front from the Upper Great Lakes into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. The probability of severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis... A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over central/southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba early Wednesday morning, with troughing associated with the cyclone stretching across the Upper Midwest into the Lower OH Valley. A shortwave trough is expected to move quickly through the base of this cyclone, from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes with another closed mid-level circulation developing over the Upper Great Lakes/eastern Ontario late Wednesday evening/early Thursday morning. Evolution of this shortwave trough will encourage a more eastward progression of the triple point surface low expected to be in the western Upper MI vicinity early Wednesday. A cold front will likely extend southward from this low through central IL before then extending more southwestward across southern MO and eastern/south-central OK into northwest TX. As this low moves eastward into central/eastern Ontario, the associated front will progress eastward across MI and much of the TN and OH Valleys. Thunderstorm are likely along and ahead of this front, but modest buoyancy and shear should limit the severe potential. Western extent of the front (i.e. from northwest TX into the Arklatex) will only make modest southward progress, with limited convergence along the boundary. Warm mid-level temperatures are currently expected to suppress deep convection, but ample low-level moisture and strong buoyancy will be in place, supporting a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms if convective initiation is realized. ..Mosier.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible along a eastward-progressing cold front from the Upper Great Lakes into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. The probability of severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis... A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over central/southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba early Wednesday morning, with troughing associated with the cyclone stretching across the Upper Midwest into the Lower OH Valley. A shortwave trough is expected to move quickly through the base of this cyclone, from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes with another closed mid-level circulation developing over the Upper Great Lakes/eastern Ontario late Wednesday evening/early Thursday morning. Evolution of this shortwave trough will encourage a more eastward progression of the triple point surface low expected to be in the western Upper MI vicinity early Wednesday. A cold front will likely extend southward from this low through central IL before then extending more southwestward across southern MO and eastern/south-central OK into northwest TX. As this low moves eastward into central/eastern Ontario, the associated front will progress eastward across MI and much of the TN and OH Valleys. Thunderstorm are likely along and ahead of this front, but modest buoyancy and shear should limit the severe potential. Western extent of the front (i.e. from northwest TX into the Arklatex) will only make modest southward progress, with limited convergence along the boundary. Warm mid-level temperatures are currently expected to suppress deep convection, but ample low-level moisture and strong buoyancy will be in place, supporting a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms if convective initiation is realized. ..Mosier.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible along a eastward-progressing cold front from the Upper Great Lakes into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. The probability of severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis... A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over central/southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba early Wednesday morning, with troughing associated with the cyclone stretching across the Upper Midwest into the Lower OH Valley. A shortwave trough is expected to move quickly through the base of this cyclone, from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes with another closed mid-level circulation developing over the Upper Great Lakes/eastern Ontario late Wednesday evening/early Thursday morning. Evolution of this shortwave trough will encourage a more eastward progression of the triple point surface low expected to be in the western Upper MI vicinity early Wednesday. A cold front will likely extend southward from this low through central IL before then extending more southwestward across southern MO and eastern/south-central OK into northwest TX. As this low moves eastward into central/eastern Ontario, the associated front will progress eastward across MI and much of the TN and OH Valleys. Thunderstorm are likely along and ahead of this front, but modest buoyancy and shear should limit the severe potential. Western extent of the front (i.e. from northwest TX into the Arklatex) will only make modest southward progress, with limited convergence along the boundary. Warm mid-level temperatures are currently expected to suppress deep convection, but ample low-level moisture and strong buoyancy will be in place, supporting a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms if convective initiation is realized. ..Mosier.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible along a eastward-progressing cold front from the Upper Great Lakes into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. The probability of severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis... A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over central/southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba early Wednesday morning, with troughing associated with the cyclone stretching across the Upper Midwest into the Lower OH Valley. A shortwave trough is expected to move quickly through the base of this cyclone, from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes with another closed mid-level circulation developing over the Upper Great Lakes/eastern Ontario late Wednesday evening/early Thursday morning. Evolution of this shortwave trough will encourage a more eastward progression of the triple point surface low expected to be in the western Upper MI vicinity early Wednesday. A cold front will likely extend southward from this low through central IL before then extending more southwestward across southern MO and eastern/south-central OK into northwest TX. As this low moves eastward into central/eastern Ontario, the associated front will progress eastward across MI and much of the TN and OH Valleys. Thunderstorm are likely along and ahead of this front, but modest buoyancy and shear should limit the severe potential. Western extent of the front (i.e. from northwest TX into the Arklatex) will only make modest southward progress, with limited convergence along the boundary. Warm mid-level temperatures are currently expected to suppress deep convection, but ample low-level moisture and strong buoyancy will be in place, supporting a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms if convective initiation is realized. ..Mosier.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible along a eastward-progressing cold front from the Upper Great Lakes into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. The probability of severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis... A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over central/southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba early Wednesday morning, with troughing associated with the cyclone stretching across the Upper Midwest into the Lower OH Valley. A shortwave trough is expected to move quickly through the base of this cyclone, from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes with another closed mid-level circulation developing over the Upper Great Lakes/eastern Ontario late Wednesday evening/early Thursday morning. Evolution of this shortwave trough will encourage a more eastward progression of the triple point surface low expected to be in the western Upper MI vicinity early Wednesday. A cold front will likely extend southward from this low through central IL before then extending more southwestward across southern MO and eastern/south-central OK into northwest TX. As this low moves eastward into central/eastern Ontario, the associated front will progress eastward across MI and much of the TN and OH Valleys. Thunderstorm are likely along and ahead of this front, but modest buoyancy and shear should limit the severe potential. Western extent of the front (i.e. from northwest TX into the Arklatex) will only make modest southward progress, with limited convergence along the boundary. Warm mid-level temperatures are currently expected to suppress deep convection, but ample low-level moisture and strong buoyancy will be in place, supporting a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms if convective initiation is realized. ..Mosier.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible along a eastward-progressing cold front from the Upper Great Lakes into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. The probability of severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis... A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over central/southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba early Wednesday morning, with troughing associated with the cyclone stretching across the Upper Midwest into the Lower OH Valley. A shortwave trough is expected to move quickly through the base of this cyclone, from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes with another closed mid-level circulation developing over the Upper Great Lakes/eastern Ontario late Wednesday evening/early Thursday morning. Evolution of this shortwave trough will encourage a more eastward progression of the triple point surface low expected to be in the western Upper MI vicinity early Wednesday. A cold front will likely extend southward from this low through central IL before then extending more southwestward across southern MO and eastern/south-central OK into northwest TX. As this low moves eastward into central/eastern Ontario, the associated front will progress eastward across MI and much of the TN and OH Valleys. Thunderstorm are likely along and ahead of this front, but modest buoyancy and shear should limit the severe potential. Western extent of the front (i.e. from northwest TX into the Arklatex) will only make modest southward progress, with limited convergence along the boundary. Warm mid-level temperatures are currently expected to suppress deep convection, but ample low-level moisture and strong buoyancy will be in place, supporting a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms if convective initiation is realized. ..Mosier.. 06/03/2024 Read more

MD 1146 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1146 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Areas affected...Southeast Colorado...Southwest Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 030449Z - 030715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A severe threat may develop and increase across parts of southwest Kansas over the next 2 to 3 hours. Large hail will be the primary threat, although isolated strong gusts could also occur. A watch may be needed across parts of the region later tonight, if a cluster can become organized. DISCUSSION...Over the last hour, a small cluster of strong thunderstorms has developed over southeast Colorado. This cluster is located along an axis of moderate instability, where MUCAPE is between 1000 and 2000 J/kg. The activity is detached from the stronger instability across the Texas Panhandle, and is elevated in nature. Short-term model forecasts suggest that convective coverage will increase across southwest Kansas, especially after 06Z. RAP forecast soundings for this time in southwest Kansas have MUCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 9 C/km, and moderate effective shear. This could be enough for a large hail threat with the stronger cores, with the threat likely maximizing during the 08Z to 12Z timeframe. ..Broyles/Hart.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB... LAT...LON 37019968 36970062 36990148 37210207 37970262 38490286 38820248 38770130 37969874 37419834 37039847 37019968 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Zonal flow aloft is forecast to transition to northwesterly through the forecast period as mid-level ridging builds over the West Coast. At the same time, a shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will intensify as it ejects eastward into the Plains. At the surface, several lee lows are forecast to develop from eastern MT into the southern Plains. A cold front will move south over the Rockies and central US ushering in a slightly cooler air mass. Increasing moisture and weaker winds are expected over parts of the Southwest in the wake of the front and as ridging limits westerly flow aloft. The net result will be much less overlap of dry and windy conditions into parts of NM, AZ and far west TX. While a few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ..Lyons.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Zonal flow aloft is forecast to transition to northwesterly through the forecast period as mid-level ridging builds over the West Coast. At the same time, a shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will intensify as it ejects eastward into the Plains. At the surface, several lee lows are forecast to develop from eastern MT into the southern Plains. A cold front will move south over the Rockies and central US ushering in a slightly cooler air mass. Increasing moisture and weaker winds are expected over parts of the Southwest in the wake of the front and as ridging limits westerly flow aloft. The net result will be much less overlap of dry and windy conditions into parts of NM, AZ and far west TX. While a few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ..Lyons.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Zonal flow aloft is forecast to transition to northwesterly through the forecast period as mid-level ridging builds over the West Coast. At the same time, a shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will intensify as it ejects eastward into the Plains. At the surface, several lee lows are forecast to develop from eastern MT into the southern Plains. A cold front will move south over the Rockies and central US ushering in a slightly cooler air mass. Increasing moisture and weaker winds are expected over parts of the Southwest in the wake of the front and as ridging limits westerly flow aloft. The net result will be much less overlap of dry and windy conditions into parts of NM, AZ and far west TX. While a few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ..Lyons.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Zonal flow aloft is forecast to transition to northwesterly through the forecast period as mid-level ridging builds over the West Coast. At the same time, a shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will intensify as it ejects eastward into the Plains. At the surface, several lee lows are forecast to develop from eastern MT into the southern Plains. A cold front will move south over the Rockies and central US ushering in a slightly cooler air mass. Increasing moisture and weaker winds are expected over parts of the Southwest in the wake of the front and as ridging limits westerly flow aloft. The net result will be much less overlap of dry and windy conditions into parts of NM, AZ and far west TX. While a few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ..Lyons.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Zonal flow aloft is forecast to transition to northwesterly through the forecast period as mid-level ridging builds over the West Coast. At the same time, a shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will intensify as it ejects eastward into the Plains. At the surface, several lee lows are forecast to develop from eastern MT into the southern Plains. A cold front will move south over the Rockies and central US ushering in a slightly cooler air mass. Increasing moisture and weaker winds are expected over parts of the Southwest in the wake of the front and as ridging limits westerly flow aloft. The net result will be much less overlap of dry and windy conditions into parts of NM, AZ and far west TX. While a few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ..Lyons.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Zonal flow aloft is forecast to transition to northwesterly through the forecast period as mid-level ridging builds over the West Coast. At the same time, a shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will intensify as it ejects eastward into the Plains. At the surface, several lee lows are forecast to develop from eastern MT into the southern Plains. A cold front will move south over the Rockies and central US ushering in a slightly cooler air mass. Increasing moisture and weaker winds are expected over parts of the Southwest in the wake of the front and as ridging limits westerly flow aloft. The net result will be much less overlap of dry and windy conditions into parts of NM, AZ and far west TX. While a few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ..Lyons.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Zonal flow aloft is forecast to transition to northwesterly through the forecast period as mid-level ridging builds over the West Coast. At the same time, a shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will intensify as it ejects eastward into the Plains. At the surface, several lee lows are forecast to develop from eastern MT into the southern Plains. A cold front will move south over the Rockies and central US ushering in a slightly cooler air mass. Increasing moisture and weaker winds are expected over parts of the Southwest in the wake of the front and as ridging limits westerly flow aloft. The net result will be much less overlap of dry and windy conditions into parts of NM, AZ and far west TX. While a few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ..Lyons.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Zonal flow aloft is forecast to transition to northwesterly through the forecast period as mid-level ridging builds over the West Coast. At the same time, a shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will intensify as it ejects eastward into the Plains. At the surface, several lee lows are forecast to develop from eastern MT into the southern Plains. A cold front will move south over the Rockies and central US ushering in a slightly cooler air mass. Increasing moisture and weaker winds are expected over parts of the Southwest in the wake of the front and as ridging limits westerly flow aloft. The net result will be much less overlap of dry and windy conditions into parts of NM, AZ and far west TX. While a few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ..Lyons.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more