Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS EAST INTO THE ARK-LA-TEX AND ARK-LA-MISS REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains this afternoon and evening. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southwest and southern Oklahoma this evening into early tonight. ...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley through tonight... IR/radar imagery late this morning shows an MCS over central/eastern OK. This thunderstorm complex is forecast to continue moving east-southeast into western AR and potentially the Ark-La-Miss region by early evening. Latest thinking is this thunderstorm activity will serve as a northern bound for Slight-Risk equivalent wind probabilities due in part to 1) residual cold pool and associated cloud debris from AR-related storms, 2) weak instability noted on the 12z Little Rock, AR raob. It is not clear whether severe potential rejuvenates with this MCS or if it is primarily attendant to additional storm development downstream. Regardless, it seems some threat for damaging gusts will develop into the afternoon/evening. Outflow trailing southwestward from these morning storms will likely provide a mesoscale focus for supercell development this afternoon along the stalling boundary in the vicinity of southwest OK border. Here, rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s) and surface heating will drive MLCAPE to near 5000-6000 J/kg with weakening convective inhibition after peak surface heating. At least isolated thunderstorm development is expected late this afternoon/evening near the outflow/dryline intersection (close to the southwest OK/southeast TX Panhandle border), and storms will subsequently move southeastward along the stalled boundary. Substantial veering from low-level east-southeasterlies to 20-30 kt mid-level flow will yield sufficient effective shear (30-40 kt) for supercells. Model-based hodographs enlarge considerably during the 23-01z period, and coupled with the extreme buoyancy, will favor the potential for a couple of tornadoes (perhaps one tornado being strong). Very large hail (up to 3 inches in diameter) and severe gusts will also be accompanying hazards with these storms. A continuation of the evening storm activity or additional storms associated with warm advection, will be possible tonight across southern and central OK yielding a severe risk. ...Southern WI and vicinity this afternoon/evening... No change in forecast thinking from the previously issued forecast. A remnant MCV over IA will move northeastward over WI this afternoon, atop a subtle surface front/trough and differential heating zone. As heating continues through early afternoon, temperatures will warm to 75-80 F in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints increase to 65-70 F. This low-level destabilization will yield moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) developing in the warm sector from eastern IA/northwest IL into southern WI. Despite some localized enhancement to vertical shear with the remnant MCV, deep-layer vertical shear will generally remain weak (primarily supporting multicell clusters and low-end supercell structures). Thus, expect a few clusters of storms capable of producing occasional wind damage and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...Northeast MT/ND... A potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough initially over the Pacific Northwest this morning will quickly move east into central MT by early evening. Models indicate perhaps isolated storms developing across western ND late this afternoon and widely scattered storms developing farther west into north-central MT spreading east. Forecast sounding profiles indicate weak instability but perhaps an isolated threat for severe gusts may develop with the storms. This activity will likely persist through the late evening as it moves east. ..Smith/Goss.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS EAST INTO THE ARK-LA-TEX AND ARK-LA-MISS REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains this afternoon and evening. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southwest and southern Oklahoma this evening into early tonight. ...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley through tonight... IR/radar imagery late this morning shows an MCS over central/eastern OK. This thunderstorm complex is forecast to continue moving east-southeast into western AR and potentially the Ark-La-Miss region by early evening. Latest thinking is this thunderstorm activity will serve as a northern bound for Slight-Risk equivalent wind probabilities due in part to 1) residual cold pool and associated cloud debris from AR-related storms, 2) weak instability noted on the 12z Little Rock, AR raob. It is not clear whether severe potential rejuvenates with this MCS or if it is primarily attendant to additional storm development downstream. Regardless, it seems some threat for damaging gusts will develop into the afternoon/evening. Outflow trailing southwestward from these morning storms will likely provide a mesoscale focus for supercell development this afternoon along the stalling boundary in the vicinity of southwest OK border. Here, rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s) and surface heating will drive MLCAPE to near 5000-6000 J/kg with weakening convective inhibition after peak surface heating. At least isolated thunderstorm development is expected late this afternoon/evening near the outflow/dryline intersection (close to the southwest OK/southeast TX Panhandle border), and storms will subsequently move southeastward along the stalled boundary. Substantial veering from low-level east-southeasterlies to 20-30 kt mid-level flow will yield sufficient effective shear (30-40 kt) for supercells. Model-based hodographs enlarge considerably during the 23-01z period, and coupled with the extreme buoyancy, will favor the potential for a couple of tornadoes (perhaps one tornado being strong). Very large hail (up to 3 inches in diameter) and severe gusts will also be accompanying hazards with these storms. A continuation of the evening storm activity or additional storms associated with warm advection, will be possible tonight across southern and central OK yielding a severe risk. ...Southern WI and vicinity this afternoon/evening... No change in forecast thinking from the previously issued forecast. A remnant MCV over IA will move northeastward over WI this afternoon, atop a subtle surface front/trough and differential heating zone. As heating continues through early afternoon, temperatures will warm to 75-80 F in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints increase to 65-70 F. This low-level destabilization will yield moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) developing in the warm sector from eastern IA/northwest IL into southern WI. Despite some localized enhancement to vertical shear with the remnant MCV, deep-layer vertical shear will generally remain weak (primarily supporting multicell clusters and low-end supercell structures). Thus, expect a few clusters of storms capable of producing occasional wind damage and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...Northeast MT/ND... A potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough initially over the Pacific Northwest this morning will quickly move east into central MT by early evening. Models indicate perhaps isolated storms developing across western ND late this afternoon and widely scattered storms developing farther west into north-central MT spreading east. Forecast sounding profiles indicate weak instability but perhaps an isolated threat for severe gusts may develop with the storms. This activity will likely persist through the late evening as it moves east. ..Smith/Goss.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS EAST INTO THE ARK-LA-TEX AND ARK-LA-MISS REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains this afternoon and evening. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southwest and southern Oklahoma this evening into early tonight. ...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley through tonight... IR/radar imagery late this morning shows an MCS over central/eastern OK. This thunderstorm complex is forecast to continue moving east-southeast into western AR and potentially the Ark-La-Miss region by early evening. Latest thinking is this thunderstorm activity will serve as a northern bound for Slight-Risk equivalent wind probabilities due in part to 1) residual cold pool and associated cloud debris from AR-related storms, 2) weak instability noted on the 12z Little Rock, AR raob. It is not clear whether severe potential rejuvenates with this MCS or if it is primarily attendant to additional storm development downstream. Regardless, it seems some threat for damaging gusts will develop into the afternoon/evening. Outflow trailing southwestward from these morning storms will likely provide a mesoscale focus for supercell development this afternoon along the stalling boundary in the vicinity of southwest OK border. Here, rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s) and surface heating will drive MLCAPE to near 5000-6000 J/kg with weakening convective inhibition after peak surface heating. At least isolated thunderstorm development is expected late this afternoon/evening near the outflow/dryline intersection (close to the southwest OK/southeast TX Panhandle border), and storms will subsequently move southeastward along the stalled boundary. Substantial veering from low-level east-southeasterlies to 20-30 kt mid-level flow will yield sufficient effective shear (30-40 kt) for supercells. Model-based hodographs enlarge considerably during the 23-01z period, and coupled with the extreme buoyancy, will favor the potential for a couple of tornadoes (perhaps one tornado being strong). Very large hail (up to 3 inches in diameter) and severe gusts will also be accompanying hazards with these storms. A continuation of the evening storm activity or additional storms associated with warm advection, will be possible tonight across southern and central OK yielding a severe risk. ...Southern WI and vicinity this afternoon/evening... No change in forecast thinking from the previously issued forecast. A remnant MCV over IA will move northeastward over WI this afternoon, atop a subtle surface front/trough and differential heating zone. As heating continues through early afternoon, temperatures will warm to 75-80 F in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints increase to 65-70 F. This low-level destabilization will yield moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) developing in the warm sector from eastern IA/northwest IL into southern WI. Despite some localized enhancement to vertical shear with the remnant MCV, deep-layer vertical shear will generally remain weak (primarily supporting multicell clusters and low-end supercell structures). Thus, expect a few clusters of storms capable of producing occasional wind damage and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...Northeast MT/ND... A potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough initially over the Pacific Northwest this morning will quickly move east into central MT by early evening. Models indicate perhaps isolated storms developing across western ND late this afternoon and widely scattered storms developing farther west into north-central MT spreading east. Forecast sounding profiles indicate weak instability but perhaps an isolated threat for severe gusts may develop with the storms. This activity will likely persist through the late evening as it moves east. ..Smith/Goss.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS EAST INTO THE ARK-LA-TEX AND ARK-LA-MISS REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains this afternoon and evening. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southwest and southern Oklahoma this evening into early tonight. ...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley through tonight... IR/radar imagery late this morning shows an MCS over central/eastern OK. This thunderstorm complex is forecast to continue moving east-southeast into western AR and potentially the Ark-La-Miss region by early evening. Latest thinking is this thunderstorm activity will serve as a northern bound for Slight-Risk equivalent wind probabilities due in part to 1) residual cold pool and associated cloud debris from AR-related storms, 2) weak instability noted on the 12z Little Rock, AR raob. It is not clear whether severe potential rejuvenates with this MCS or if it is primarily attendant to additional storm development downstream. Regardless, it seems some threat for damaging gusts will develop into the afternoon/evening. Outflow trailing southwestward from these morning storms will likely provide a mesoscale focus for supercell development this afternoon along the stalling boundary in the vicinity of southwest OK border. Here, rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s) and surface heating will drive MLCAPE to near 5000-6000 J/kg with weakening convective inhibition after peak surface heating. At least isolated thunderstorm development is expected late this afternoon/evening near the outflow/dryline intersection (close to the southwest OK/southeast TX Panhandle border), and storms will subsequently move southeastward along the stalled boundary. Substantial veering from low-level east-southeasterlies to 20-30 kt mid-level flow will yield sufficient effective shear (30-40 kt) for supercells. Model-based hodographs enlarge considerably during the 23-01z period, and coupled with the extreme buoyancy, will favor the potential for a couple of tornadoes (perhaps one tornado being strong). Very large hail (up to 3 inches in diameter) and severe gusts will also be accompanying hazards with these storms. A continuation of the evening storm activity or additional storms associated with warm advection, will be possible tonight across southern and central OK yielding a severe risk. ...Southern WI and vicinity this afternoon/evening... No change in forecast thinking from the previously issued forecast. A remnant MCV over IA will move northeastward over WI this afternoon, atop a subtle surface front/trough and differential heating zone. As heating continues through early afternoon, temperatures will warm to 75-80 F in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints increase to 65-70 F. This low-level destabilization will yield moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) developing in the warm sector from eastern IA/northwest IL into southern WI. Despite some localized enhancement to vertical shear with the remnant MCV, deep-layer vertical shear will generally remain weak (primarily supporting multicell clusters and low-end supercell structures). Thus, expect a few clusters of storms capable of producing occasional wind damage and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...Northeast MT/ND... A potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough initially over the Pacific Northwest this morning will quickly move east into central MT by early evening. Models indicate perhaps isolated storms developing across western ND late this afternoon and widely scattered storms developing farther west into north-central MT spreading east. Forecast sounding profiles indicate weak instability but perhaps an isolated threat for severe gusts may develop with the storms. This activity will likely persist through the late evening as it moves east. ..Smith/Goss.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS EAST INTO THE ARK-LA-TEX AND ARK-LA-MISS REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains this afternoon and evening. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southwest and southern Oklahoma this evening into early tonight. ...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley through tonight... IR/radar imagery late this morning shows an MCS over central/eastern OK. This thunderstorm complex is forecast to continue moving east-southeast into western AR and potentially the Ark-La-Miss region by early evening. Latest thinking is this thunderstorm activity will serve as a northern bound for Slight-Risk equivalent wind probabilities due in part to 1) residual cold pool and associated cloud debris from AR-related storms, 2) weak instability noted on the 12z Little Rock, AR raob. It is not clear whether severe potential rejuvenates with this MCS or if it is primarily attendant to additional storm development downstream. Regardless, it seems some threat for damaging gusts will develop into the afternoon/evening. Outflow trailing southwestward from these morning storms will likely provide a mesoscale focus for supercell development this afternoon along the stalling boundary in the vicinity of southwest OK border. Here, rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s) and surface heating will drive MLCAPE to near 5000-6000 J/kg with weakening convective inhibition after peak surface heating. At least isolated thunderstorm development is expected late this afternoon/evening near the outflow/dryline intersection (close to the southwest OK/southeast TX Panhandle border), and storms will subsequently move southeastward along the stalled boundary. Substantial veering from low-level east-southeasterlies to 20-30 kt mid-level flow will yield sufficient effective shear (30-40 kt) for supercells. Model-based hodographs enlarge considerably during the 23-01z period, and coupled with the extreme buoyancy, will favor the potential for a couple of tornadoes (perhaps one tornado being strong). Very large hail (up to 3 inches in diameter) and severe gusts will also be accompanying hazards with these storms. A continuation of the evening storm activity or additional storms associated with warm advection, will be possible tonight across southern and central OK yielding a severe risk. ...Southern WI and vicinity this afternoon/evening... No change in forecast thinking from the previously issued forecast. A remnant MCV over IA will move northeastward over WI this afternoon, atop a subtle surface front/trough and differential heating zone. As heating continues through early afternoon, temperatures will warm to 75-80 F in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints increase to 65-70 F. This low-level destabilization will yield moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) developing in the warm sector from eastern IA/northwest IL into southern WI. Despite some localized enhancement to vertical shear with the remnant MCV, deep-layer vertical shear will generally remain weak (primarily supporting multicell clusters and low-end supercell structures). Thus, expect a few clusters of storms capable of producing occasional wind damage and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...Northeast MT/ND... A potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough initially over the Pacific Northwest this morning will quickly move east into central MT by early evening. Models indicate perhaps isolated storms developing across western ND late this afternoon and widely scattered storms developing farther west into north-central MT spreading east. Forecast sounding profiles indicate weak instability but perhaps an isolated threat for severe gusts may develop with the storms. This activity will likely persist through the late evening as it moves east. ..Smith/Goss.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS EAST INTO THE ARK-LA-TEX AND ARK-LA-MISS REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains this afternoon and evening. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southwest and southern Oklahoma this evening into early tonight. ...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley through tonight... IR/radar imagery late this morning shows an MCS over central/eastern OK. This thunderstorm complex is forecast to continue moving east-southeast into western AR and potentially the Ark-La-Miss region by early evening. Latest thinking is this thunderstorm activity will serve as a northern bound for Slight-Risk equivalent wind probabilities due in part to 1) residual cold pool and associated cloud debris from AR-related storms, 2) weak instability noted on the 12z Little Rock, AR raob. It is not clear whether severe potential rejuvenates with this MCS or if it is primarily attendant to additional storm development downstream. Regardless, it seems some threat for damaging gusts will develop into the afternoon/evening. Outflow trailing southwestward from these morning storms will likely provide a mesoscale focus for supercell development this afternoon along the stalling boundary in the vicinity of southwest OK border. Here, rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s) and surface heating will drive MLCAPE to near 5000-6000 J/kg with weakening convective inhibition after peak surface heating. At least isolated thunderstorm development is expected late this afternoon/evening near the outflow/dryline intersection (close to the southwest OK/southeast TX Panhandle border), and storms will subsequently move southeastward along the stalled boundary. Substantial veering from low-level east-southeasterlies to 20-30 kt mid-level flow will yield sufficient effective shear (30-40 kt) for supercells. Model-based hodographs enlarge considerably during the 23-01z period, and coupled with the extreme buoyancy, will favor the potential for a couple of tornadoes (perhaps one tornado being strong). Very large hail (up to 3 inches in diameter) and severe gusts will also be accompanying hazards with these storms. A continuation of the evening storm activity or additional storms associated with warm advection, will be possible tonight across southern and central OK yielding a severe risk. ...Southern WI and vicinity this afternoon/evening... No change in forecast thinking from the previously issued forecast. A remnant MCV over IA will move northeastward over WI this afternoon, atop a subtle surface front/trough and differential heating zone. As heating continues through early afternoon, temperatures will warm to 75-80 F in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints increase to 65-70 F. This low-level destabilization will yield moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) developing in the warm sector from eastern IA/northwest IL into southern WI. Despite some localized enhancement to vertical shear with the remnant MCV, deep-layer vertical shear will generally remain weak (primarily supporting multicell clusters and low-end supercell structures). Thus, expect a few clusters of storms capable of producing occasional wind damage and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...Northeast MT/ND... A potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough initially over the Pacific Northwest this morning will quickly move east into central MT by early evening. Models indicate perhaps isolated storms developing across western ND late this afternoon and widely scattered storms developing farther west into north-central MT spreading east. Forecast sounding profiles indicate weak instability but perhaps an isolated threat for severe gusts may develop with the storms. This activity will likely persist through the late evening as it moves east. ..Smith/Goss.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS EAST INTO THE ARK-LA-TEX AND ARK-LA-MISS REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains this afternoon and evening. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southwest and southern Oklahoma this evening into early tonight. ...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley through tonight... IR/radar imagery late this morning shows an MCS over central/eastern OK. This thunderstorm complex is forecast to continue moving east-southeast into western AR and potentially the Ark-La-Miss region by early evening. Latest thinking is this thunderstorm activity will serve as a northern bound for Slight-Risk equivalent wind probabilities due in part to 1) residual cold pool and associated cloud debris from AR-related storms, 2) weak instability noted on the 12z Little Rock, AR raob. It is not clear whether severe potential rejuvenates with this MCS or if it is primarily attendant to additional storm development downstream. Regardless, it seems some threat for damaging gusts will develop into the afternoon/evening. Outflow trailing southwestward from these morning storms will likely provide a mesoscale focus for supercell development this afternoon along the stalling boundary in the vicinity of southwest OK border. Here, rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s) and surface heating will drive MLCAPE to near 5000-6000 J/kg with weakening convective inhibition after peak surface heating. At least isolated thunderstorm development is expected late this afternoon/evening near the outflow/dryline intersection (close to the southwest OK/southeast TX Panhandle border), and storms will subsequently move southeastward along the stalled boundary. Substantial veering from low-level east-southeasterlies to 20-30 kt mid-level flow will yield sufficient effective shear (30-40 kt) for supercells. Model-based hodographs enlarge considerably during the 23-01z period, and coupled with the extreme buoyancy, will favor the potential for a couple of tornadoes (perhaps one tornado being strong). Very large hail (up to 3 inches in diameter) and severe gusts will also be accompanying hazards with these storms. A continuation of the evening storm activity or additional storms associated with warm advection, will be possible tonight across southern and central OK yielding a severe risk. ...Southern WI and vicinity this afternoon/evening... No change in forecast thinking from the previously issued forecast. A remnant MCV over IA will move northeastward over WI this afternoon, atop a subtle surface front/trough and differential heating zone. As heating continues through early afternoon, temperatures will warm to 75-80 F in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints increase to 65-70 F. This low-level destabilization will yield moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) developing in the warm sector from eastern IA/northwest IL into southern WI. Despite some localized enhancement to vertical shear with the remnant MCV, deep-layer vertical shear will generally remain weak (primarily supporting multicell clusters and low-end supercell structures). Thus, expect a few clusters of storms capable of producing occasional wind damage and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...Northeast MT/ND... A potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough initially over the Pacific Northwest this morning will quickly move east into central MT by early evening. Models indicate perhaps isolated storms developing across western ND late this afternoon and widely scattered storms developing farther west into north-central MT spreading east. Forecast sounding profiles indicate weak instability but perhaps an isolated threat for severe gusts may develop with the storms. This activity will likely persist through the late evening as it moves east. ..Smith/Goss.. 06/03/2024 Read more

WW 0384 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 384 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E OKC TO 20 SSE CQB. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 384 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 03/17Z. ..KERR..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 384 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC027-125-133-031700- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLEVELAND POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0384 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 384 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E OKC TO 20 SSE CQB. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 384 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 03/17Z. ..KERR..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 384 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC027-125-133-031700- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLEVELAND POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0384 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 384 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E OKC TO 20 SSE CQB. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 384 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 03/17Z. ..KERR..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 384 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC027-125-133-031700- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLEVELAND POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0384 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 384 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E OKC TO 20 SSE CQB. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 384 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 03/17Z. ..KERR..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 384 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC027-125-133-031700- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLEVELAND POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0384 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 384 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E OKC TO 20 SSE CQB. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 384 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 03/17Z. ..KERR..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 384 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC027-125-133-031700- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLEVELAND POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 384 SEVERE TSTM KS OK 031000Z - 031700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 384 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 500 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of South central Kansas Northern and central Oklahoma * Effective this Monday morning from 500 AM until NOON CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A well-developed MCS with embedded bowing segments will continue east-southeastward through the morning from southwest Kansas into south central Kansas and northern/central Oklahoma. Damaging winds of 65-80 mph will be the main threat, while the stronger embedded storms could produce isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles south of Medicine Lodge KS to 30 miles southeast of Ponca City OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 383... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 31035. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0384 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 384 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW CHK TO 15 SSE CQB. ..KERR..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 384 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC017-027-109-125-133-031640- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CANADIAN CLEVELAND OKLAHOMA POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on latest surface observations and trends in high-res guidance. Confidence remains reasonably high in the emergence of elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon across portions of AZ into southern NM and far west TX between the 20-01 UTC period. South-central NM into the Trans Pecos region of far west TX should see the longest duration of 15+ mph winds with 5-15% RH where deeper boundary-layer mixing should favor frequent gusts between 20-25 mph. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad and weak zonal flow will continue over parts of the Southwest and southern US as a subtle shortwave moves eastward into the Plains. Gusty winds are possible over parts of NM and west TX where receptive fuels and hot/dry temperatures are also expected. ...New Mexico and far West TX... Despite being weaker than the past several days, westerly mid-level flow should remain strong enough to bolster surface winds to around 10-15 MPH over parts of central/eastern NM and far West TX this afternoon behind a dryline. With RH values in the low teens and temperatures of 90+ F, the dry and breezy air mass will likely support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential within receptive fuels. The most likely corridor for more sustained and stronger winds will be closer to the dryline/surface trough across far west TX. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions may also extend farther west in to central AZ. While winds are expected to be more sporadic, dry surface conditions along the Mogollon Rim have allowed for continued drying of fuels. As such, at least a few hours of 15-20 mph wind gusts and RH below 15% may support some elevated fire-weather risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on latest surface observations and trends in high-res guidance. Confidence remains reasonably high in the emergence of elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon across portions of AZ into southern NM and far west TX between the 20-01 UTC period. South-central NM into the Trans Pecos region of far west TX should see the longest duration of 15+ mph winds with 5-15% RH where deeper boundary-layer mixing should favor frequent gusts between 20-25 mph. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad and weak zonal flow will continue over parts of the Southwest and southern US as a subtle shortwave moves eastward into the Plains. Gusty winds are possible over parts of NM and west TX where receptive fuels and hot/dry temperatures are also expected. ...New Mexico and far West TX... Despite being weaker than the past several days, westerly mid-level flow should remain strong enough to bolster surface winds to around 10-15 MPH over parts of central/eastern NM and far West TX this afternoon behind a dryline. With RH values in the low teens and temperatures of 90+ F, the dry and breezy air mass will likely support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential within receptive fuels. The most likely corridor for more sustained and stronger winds will be closer to the dryline/surface trough across far west TX. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions may also extend farther west in to central AZ. While winds are expected to be more sporadic, dry surface conditions along the Mogollon Rim have allowed for continued drying of fuels. As such, at least a few hours of 15-20 mph wind gusts and RH below 15% may support some elevated fire-weather risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on latest surface observations and trends in high-res guidance. Confidence remains reasonably high in the emergence of elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon across portions of AZ into southern NM and far west TX between the 20-01 UTC period. South-central NM into the Trans Pecos region of far west TX should see the longest duration of 15+ mph winds with 5-15% RH where deeper boundary-layer mixing should favor frequent gusts between 20-25 mph. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad and weak zonal flow will continue over parts of the Southwest and southern US as a subtle shortwave moves eastward into the Plains. Gusty winds are possible over parts of NM and west TX where receptive fuels and hot/dry temperatures are also expected. ...New Mexico and far West TX... Despite being weaker than the past several days, westerly mid-level flow should remain strong enough to bolster surface winds to around 10-15 MPH over parts of central/eastern NM and far West TX this afternoon behind a dryline. With RH values in the low teens and temperatures of 90+ F, the dry and breezy air mass will likely support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential within receptive fuels. The most likely corridor for more sustained and stronger winds will be closer to the dryline/surface trough across far west TX. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions may also extend farther west in to central AZ. While winds are expected to be more sporadic, dry surface conditions along the Mogollon Rim have allowed for continued drying of fuels. As such, at least a few hours of 15-20 mph wind gusts and RH below 15% may support some elevated fire-weather risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on latest surface observations and trends in high-res guidance. Confidence remains reasonably high in the emergence of elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon across portions of AZ into southern NM and far west TX between the 20-01 UTC period. South-central NM into the Trans Pecos region of far west TX should see the longest duration of 15+ mph winds with 5-15% RH where deeper boundary-layer mixing should favor frequent gusts between 20-25 mph. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad and weak zonal flow will continue over parts of the Southwest and southern US as a subtle shortwave moves eastward into the Plains. Gusty winds are possible over parts of NM and west TX where receptive fuels and hot/dry temperatures are also expected. ...New Mexico and far West TX... Despite being weaker than the past several days, westerly mid-level flow should remain strong enough to bolster surface winds to around 10-15 MPH over parts of central/eastern NM and far West TX this afternoon behind a dryline. With RH values in the low teens and temperatures of 90+ F, the dry and breezy air mass will likely support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential within receptive fuels. The most likely corridor for more sustained and stronger winds will be closer to the dryline/surface trough across far west TX. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions may also extend farther west in to central AZ. While winds are expected to be more sporadic, dry surface conditions along the Mogollon Rim have allowed for continued drying of fuels. As such, at least a few hours of 15-20 mph wind gusts and RH below 15% may support some elevated fire-weather risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on latest surface observations and trends in high-res guidance. Confidence remains reasonably high in the emergence of elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon across portions of AZ into southern NM and far west TX between the 20-01 UTC period. South-central NM into the Trans Pecos region of far west TX should see the longest duration of 15+ mph winds with 5-15% RH where deeper boundary-layer mixing should favor frequent gusts between 20-25 mph. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad and weak zonal flow will continue over parts of the Southwest and southern US as a subtle shortwave moves eastward into the Plains. Gusty winds are possible over parts of NM and west TX where receptive fuels and hot/dry temperatures are also expected. ...New Mexico and far West TX... Despite being weaker than the past several days, westerly mid-level flow should remain strong enough to bolster surface winds to around 10-15 MPH over parts of central/eastern NM and far West TX this afternoon behind a dryline. With RH values in the low teens and temperatures of 90+ F, the dry and breezy air mass will likely support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential within receptive fuels. The most likely corridor for more sustained and stronger winds will be closer to the dryline/surface trough across far west TX. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions may also extend farther west in to central AZ. While winds are expected to be more sporadic, dry surface conditions along the Mogollon Rim have allowed for continued drying of fuels. As such, at least a few hours of 15-20 mph wind gusts and RH below 15% may support some elevated fire-weather risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on latest surface observations and trends in high-res guidance. Confidence remains reasonably high in the emergence of elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon across portions of AZ into southern NM and far west TX between the 20-01 UTC period. South-central NM into the Trans Pecos region of far west TX should see the longest duration of 15+ mph winds with 5-15% RH where deeper boundary-layer mixing should favor frequent gusts between 20-25 mph. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad and weak zonal flow will continue over parts of the Southwest and southern US as a subtle shortwave moves eastward into the Plains. Gusty winds are possible over parts of NM and west TX where receptive fuels and hot/dry temperatures are also expected. ...New Mexico and far West TX... Despite being weaker than the past several days, westerly mid-level flow should remain strong enough to bolster surface winds to around 10-15 MPH over parts of central/eastern NM and far West TX this afternoon behind a dryline. With RH values in the low teens and temperatures of 90+ F, the dry and breezy air mass will likely support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential within receptive fuels. The most likely corridor for more sustained and stronger winds will be closer to the dryline/surface trough across far west TX. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions may also extend farther west in to central AZ. While winds are expected to be more sporadic, dry surface conditions along the Mogollon Rim have allowed for continued drying of fuels. As such, at least a few hours of 15-20 mph wind gusts and RH below 15% may support some elevated fire-weather risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more