Severe Storms

WW 0383 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 383 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E LBL TO 25 ENE DDC TO 20 SW RSL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1148. ..GRAMS..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 383 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-025-033-047-097-145-151-185-031140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS KIOWA PAWNEE PRATT STAFFORD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1148 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 383...384... FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL KS AND NORTHWEST OK
Mesoscale Discussion 1148 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0514 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Areas affected...South-central KS and northwest OK Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 383...384... Valid 031014Z - 031115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 383, 384 continues. SUMMARY...A swath of 65-80 mph wind gusts is likely ongoing across a portion of south-central Kansas and should spread into parts of northwest Oklahoma through mid-morning. DISCUSSION...A 200-km long QLCS is ongoing across a part of southwest/south-central KS into far northwest OK. This QLCS has matured over the past couple hours with a history of measured severe wind gusts to 74 mph thus far. Strongest velocities have been noted within the apex of the line that has now shifted south of the US-54 corridor. Time-series of Vance AFB VWP has indicated some weakening of the south-southwesterly low-level jet, but it is still holding in the low 40s kts. While this leading wind surge may be tempered in time as it spreads into a more marginally unstable air mass farther east in south-central KS, an additional swath may develop along the trailing flank along the pronounced MLCAPE gradient in northwest OK. ..Grams.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC... LAT...LON 37589940 37949918 37939863 37809818 37619782 37279740 36689767 36369806 36359851 36579916 36829974 37060001 37589940 Read more

WW 383 SEVERE TSTM KS 030620Z - 031200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 383 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 120 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Kansas * Effective this Monday morning from 120 AM until 700 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible SUMMARY...Clusters of storms are expected to develop east-southeastward across southwest Kansas through the early morning hours, with the primary threat of occasional large hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter. Isolated severe gusts up to 60 mph may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles west southwest of Garden City KS to 35 miles north of Medicine Lodge KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30020. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0384 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0384 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0383 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 383 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E LBL TO 20 WSW DDC TO 50 WSW RSL. ..GRAMS..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 383 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-025-033-047-057-083-097-119-145-151-165-185-031040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS FORD HODGEMAN KIOWA MEADE PAWNEE PRATT RUSH STAFFORD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0383 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 383 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW GCK TO 55 SSW HLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1147. ..GRAMS..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 383 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-025-033-047-055-057-069-081-083-097-101-119-135-145-151- 165-185-030940- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS FINNEY FORD GRAY HASKELL HODGEMAN KIOWA LANE MEADE NESS PAWNEE PRATT RUSH STAFFORD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1147 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 383... FOR SOUTHWEST KS TO NORTHWEST OK
Mesoscale Discussion 1147 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Areas affected...Southwest KS to northwest OK Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 383... Valid 030800Z - 030930Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 383 continues. SUMMARY...Increasing potential for strong to severe wind gusts is expected through dawn as a developing QLCS intensifies across southwest Kansas. It appears this should eventually track towards northwest Oklahoma and an additional severe thunderstorm watch will be considered as it approaches. DISCUSSION...A 150-km long developing QLCS is ongoing across southwest KS. While it is initially rooted from elevated parcels and MRMS MESH cores have flirted around 1 inch, strong surface wind gusts have been observed (up to 55 mph at the Ulysses AWOS). This QLCS should intensify as it impinges on increasing buoyancy advecting across the Panhandles amid a 45-50 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet per Amarillo VWP data. Surface wind gusts of 55-70 mph should become more numerous into daybreak. While the bulk of 00Z CAM guidance indicated MCS development spreading more easterly across southern KS, the 06Z HRRR along with 00Z NSSL-MPAS suggest a more southeasterly track into northwest OK. Given the placement of both the MLCAPE/MUCAPE gradient and residual outflows from prior MCSs, this scenario appears more likely. ..Grams/Thompson.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 38280065 38310006 37739874 37329808 36939772 36579780 36339802 36149857 36089920 36309981 36880080 37330129 37690139 38280065 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to vary on the strength and evolution of the mid-latitude cyclone forecast to be over the Upper Great Lakes/southern Ontario vicinity early D4/Thursday. Even with this variance, the overall pattern remains fairly similar with the cyclone drifting gradually eastward/southeastward into the Northeast from D4/Thursday through D6/Saturday. At the same time, upper ridging is forecast to build from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia. A belt of strong northwesterlies is anticipated between these two features, from the Canadian Prairies across the Upper Midwest and OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic, through the weekend. The greater low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain confined to the southern Plains and Southeast on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday, before some moisture advection takes it back into the central Plains on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday. No synoptic features are forecast to interact with this moisture across the southern/central Plains, but daily afternoon thunderstorm development along the lee trough across central/southern High Plains appears possible. However, predictability of coverage and severity is low at this forecast range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to vary on the strength and evolution of the mid-latitude cyclone forecast to be over the Upper Great Lakes/southern Ontario vicinity early D4/Thursday. Even with this variance, the overall pattern remains fairly similar with the cyclone drifting gradually eastward/southeastward into the Northeast from D4/Thursday through D6/Saturday. At the same time, upper ridging is forecast to build from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia. A belt of strong northwesterlies is anticipated between these two features, from the Canadian Prairies across the Upper Midwest and OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic, through the weekend. The greater low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain confined to the southern Plains and Southeast on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday, before some moisture advection takes it back into the central Plains on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday. No synoptic features are forecast to interact with this moisture across the southern/central Plains, but daily afternoon thunderstorm development along the lee trough across central/southern High Plains appears possible. However, predictability of coverage and severity is low at this forecast range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to vary on the strength and evolution of the mid-latitude cyclone forecast to be over the Upper Great Lakes/southern Ontario vicinity early D4/Thursday. Even with this variance, the overall pattern remains fairly similar with the cyclone drifting gradually eastward/southeastward into the Northeast from D4/Thursday through D6/Saturday. At the same time, upper ridging is forecast to build from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia. A belt of strong northwesterlies is anticipated between these two features, from the Canadian Prairies across the Upper Midwest and OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic, through the weekend. The greater low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain confined to the southern Plains and Southeast on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday, before some moisture advection takes it back into the central Plains on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday. No synoptic features are forecast to interact with this moisture across the southern/central Plains, but daily afternoon thunderstorm development along the lee trough across central/southern High Plains appears possible. However, predictability of coverage and severity is low at this forecast range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to vary on the strength and evolution of the mid-latitude cyclone forecast to be over the Upper Great Lakes/southern Ontario vicinity early D4/Thursday. Even with this variance, the overall pattern remains fairly similar with the cyclone drifting gradually eastward/southeastward into the Northeast from D4/Thursday through D6/Saturday. At the same time, upper ridging is forecast to build from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia. A belt of strong northwesterlies is anticipated between these two features, from the Canadian Prairies across the Upper Midwest and OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic, through the weekend. The greater low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain confined to the southern Plains and Southeast on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday, before some moisture advection takes it back into the central Plains on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday. No synoptic features are forecast to interact with this moisture across the southern/central Plains, but daily afternoon thunderstorm development along the lee trough across central/southern High Plains appears possible. However, predictability of coverage and severity is low at this forecast range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to vary on the strength and evolution of the mid-latitude cyclone forecast to be over the Upper Great Lakes/southern Ontario vicinity early D4/Thursday. Even with this variance, the overall pattern remains fairly similar with the cyclone drifting gradually eastward/southeastward into the Northeast from D4/Thursday through D6/Saturday. At the same time, upper ridging is forecast to build from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia. A belt of strong northwesterlies is anticipated between these two features, from the Canadian Prairies across the Upper Midwest and OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic, through the weekend. The greater low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain confined to the southern Plains and Southeast on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday, before some moisture advection takes it back into the central Plains on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday. No synoptic features are forecast to interact with this moisture across the southern/central Plains, but daily afternoon thunderstorm development along the lee trough across central/southern High Plains appears possible. However, predictability of coverage and severity is low at this forecast range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to vary on the strength and evolution of the mid-latitude cyclone forecast to be over the Upper Great Lakes/southern Ontario vicinity early D4/Thursday. Even with this variance, the overall pattern remains fairly similar with the cyclone drifting gradually eastward/southeastward into the Northeast from D4/Thursday through D6/Saturday. At the same time, upper ridging is forecast to build from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia. A belt of strong northwesterlies is anticipated between these two features, from the Canadian Prairies across the Upper Midwest and OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic, through the weekend. The greater low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain confined to the southern Plains and Southeast on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday, before some moisture advection takes it back into the central Plains on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday. No synoptic features are forecast to interact with this moisture across the southern/central Plains, but daily afternoon thunderstorm development along the lee trough across central/southern High Plains appears possible. However, predictability of coverage and severity is low at this forecast range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to vary on the strength and evolution of the mid-latitude cyclone forecast to be over the Upper Great Lakes/southern Ontario vicinity early D4/Thursday. Even with this variance, the overall pattern remains fairly similar with the cyclone drifting gradually eastward/southeastward into the Northeast from D4/Thursday through D6/Saturday. At the same time, upper ridging is forecast to build from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia. A belt of strong northwesterlies is anticipated between these two features, from the Canadian Prairies across the Upper Midwest and OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic, through the weekend. The greater low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain confined to the southern Plains and Southeast on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday, before some moisture advection takes it back into the central Plains on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday. No synoptic features are forecast to interact with this moisture across the southern/central Plains, but daily afternoon thunderstorm development along the lee trough across central/southern High Plains appears possible. However, predictability of coverage and severity is low at this forecast range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to vary on the strength and evolution of the mid-latitude cyclone forecast to be over the Upper Great Lakes/southern Ontario vicinity early D4/Thursday. Even with this variance, the overall pattern remains fairly similar with the cyclone drifting gradually eastward/southeastward into the Northeast from D4/Thursday through D6/Saturday. At the same time, upper ridging is forecast to build from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia. A belt of strong northwesterlies is anticipated between these two features, from the Canadian Prairies across the Upper Midwest and OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic, through the weekend. The greater low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain confined to the southern Plains and Southeast on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday, before some moisture advection takes it back into the central Plains on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday. No synoptic features are forecast to interact with this moisture across the southern/central Plains, but daily afternoon thunderstorm development along the lee trough across central/southern High Plains appears possible. However, predictability of coverage and severity is low at this forecast range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to vary on the strength and evolution of the mid-latitude cyclone forecast to be over the Upper Great Lakes/southern Ontario vicinity early D4/Thursday. Even with this variance, the overall pattern remains fairly similar with the cyclone drifting gradually eastward/southeastward into the Northeast from D4/Thursday through D6/Saturday. At the same time, upper ridging is forecast to build from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia. A belt of strong northwesterlies is anticipated between these two features, from the Canadian Prairies across the Upper Midwest and OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic, through the weekend. The greater low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain confined to the southern Plains and Southeast on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday, before some moisture advection takes it back into the central Plains on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday. No synoptic features are forecast to interact with this moisture across the southern/central Plains, but daily afternoon thunderstorm development along the lee trough across central/southern High Plains appears possible. However, predictability of coverage and severity is low at this forecast range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to vary on the strength and evolution of the mid-latitude cyclone forecast to be over the Upper Great Lakes/southern Ontario vicinity early D4/Thursday. Even with this variance, the overall pattern remains fairly similar with the cyclone drifting gradually eastward/southeastward into the Northeast from D4/Thursday through D6/Saturday. At the same time, upper ridging is forecast to build from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia. A belt of strong northwesterlies is anticipated between these two features, from the Canadian Prairies across the Upper Midwest and OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic, through the weekend. The greater low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain confined to the southern Plains and Southeast on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday, before some moisture advection takes it back into the central Plains on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday. No synoptic features are forecast to interact with this moisture across the southern/central Plains, but daily afternoon thunderstorm development along the lee trough across central/southern High Plains appears possible. However, predictability of coverage and severity is low at this forecast range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to vary on the strength and evolution of the mid-latitude cyclone forecast to be over the Upper Great Lakes/southern Ontario vicinity early D4/Thursday. Even with this variance, the overall pattern remains fairly similar with the cyclone drifting gradually eastward/southeastward into the Northeast from D4/Thursday through D6/Saturday. At the same time, upper ridging is forecast to build from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia. A belt of strong northwesterlies is anticipated between these two features, from the Canadian Prairies across the Upper Midwest and OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic, through the weekend. The greater low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain confined to the southern Plains and Southeast on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday, before some moisture advection takes it back into the central Plains on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday. No synoptic features are forecast to interact with this moisture across the southern/central Plains, but daily afternoon thunderstorm development along the lee trough across central/southern High Plains appears possible. However, predictability of coverage and severity is low at this forecast range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to vary on the strength and evolution of the mid-latitude cyclone forecast to be over the Upper Great Lakes/southern Ontario vicinity early D4/Thursday. Even with this variance, the overall pattern remains fairly similar with the cyclone drifting gradually eastward/southeastward into the Northeast from D4/Thursday through D6/Saturday. At the same time, upper ridging is forecast to build from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia. A belt of strong northwesterlies is anticipated between these two features, from the Canadian Prairies across the Upper Midwest and OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic, through the weekend. The greater low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain confined to the southern Plains and Southeast on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday, before some moisture advection takes it back into the central Plains on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday. No synoptic features are forecast to interact with this moisture across the southern/central Plains, but daily afternoon thunderstorm development along the lee trough across central/southern High Plains appears possible. However, predictability of coverage and severity is low at this forecast range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to vary on the strength and evolution of the mid-latitude cyclone forecast to be over the Upper Great Lakes/southern Ontario vicinity early D4/Thursday. Even with this variance, the overall pattern remains fairly similar with the cyclone drifting gradually eastward/southeastward into the Northeast from D4/Thursday through D6/Saturday. At the same time, upper ridging is forecast to build from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia. A belt of strong northwesterlies is anticipated between these two features, from the Canadian Prairies across the Upper Midwest and OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic, through the weekend. The greater low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain confined to the southern Plains and Southeast on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday, before some moisture advection takes it back into the central Plains on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday. No synoptic features are forecast to interact with this moisture across the southern/central Plains, but daily afternoon thunderstorm development along the lee trough across central/southern High Plains appears possible. However, predictability of coverage and severity is low at this forecast range. Read more