Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING...WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing gusts to 80 mph, large hail greater than 2.5 inches, and a couple of tornadoes are possible across parts of eastern Montana into western portions of the northern and central Plains Thursday afternoon and evening. ...MT/ND/SD/NE vicinity... An upper ridge will initially be positioned over the northern High Plains vicinity on Thursday. The ridge will flatten and shift east through the period as an upper shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest develops east across the northern Rockies. Strong height falls will result in a deepening surface low over eastern MT during the day. The low will develop east/southeast into the western Dakotas during the evening while an associated surface cold front shifts east across the region into the overnight hours. A surface trough/dryline will extend southward from the low across the northern/central High Plains. South/southeasterly low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northward across KS/NE and into the Dakotas/eastern MT. Cooling aloft/steepening midlevel lapse rates atop this moist boundary-layer will result in a corridor of moderate to strong instability. Vertically veering wind profiles indicate supercells storm mode will be possible with initial convection developing during the afternoon. Initial storms are likely to first develop over higher terrain and near the surface low in MT, and southward along the dryline in an area of strong low-level convergence and increasing large-scale ascent. With time, a southerly low-level jet is forecast to increase during the evening. Thunderstorm clusters may grow upscale into a coupe of smaller bowing MCSs from far eastern MT/western Dakotas, and possibly across western NE. Large instability, a deeply mixed boundary layer with steep low-level lapse rates, and some dry air above 700 mb will support strong downdrafts capable of severe to significant wind gusts. Isolated to widely scattered large to very large hail (2.5+ inch diameter) also will be possible, especially with any discrete supercells. As the low-level jet increases toward evening, low-level SRH will increase and hodographs will become enlarged, especially near the surface low. A few tornadoes will be possibly, mainly in the 23-03z time frame. Severe potential will gradually wane with eastward extent overnight as capping increases across central/eastern ND/SD/NE. ...Eastern CO/KS into the southern High Plains/northwest OK... Vertical shear will be more marginal (20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes) with stronger deep-layer flow remaining displaced northward. Nevertheless, a narrow corridor for rich boundary-layer moisture and strong instability will exist along/just east of the surface dryline. Isolated/widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected by late afternoon into the evening. Transient supercells capable of mainly strong/severe gusts and hail will be possible during the afternoon/evening. Clustering may occur during the evening over KS as the low-level jet increases, but strong capping with eastward extent will likely limit severe potential overnight. ...UT/AZ/NM/western CO/WY... A relatively moist airmass will be in place, with surface dewpoints in the upper 40s to upper 50s F common across the region. This will aid in afternoon destabilization, with MLCAPE up to 750 J/kg forecast. Vertical shear will support at least transient organized cells as the area remains on the southern fringe of stronger mid/upper westerly flow. Isolated strong to severe gusts and marginal hail will be possible with storms during the afternoon into mid-evening. ...Eastern Carolinas/Southeast vicinity... Modest upper troughing will be oriented over the Southeast on Thursday. A weak surface boundary may sag southward across the Carolinas/GA while some forecast guidance indicates an MCV may be located over AL. A very moist airmass will be in place, and strong heating will aid in a corridor of moderate to strong instability. The most likely area for a few strong to severe storms will exist over the eastern Carolinas where strongest instability will align with modest vertical shear (around 25 kt effective shear magnitudes). Damaging gusts and isolated hail to near 1 inch diameter will be possible. Further west across parts of GA and AL, vertical shear will be very weak (less than 15 kt). This should preclude organized severe potential further west, but PW values greater than 2 inches and sufficient instability could result in a couple of strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING...WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing gusts to 80 mph, large hail greater than 2.5 inches, and a couple of tornadoes are possible across parts of eastern Montana into western portions of the northern and central Plains Thursday afternoon and evening. ...MT/ND/SD/NE vicinity... An upper ridge will initially be positioned over the northern High Plains vicinity on Thursday. The ridge will flatten and shift east through the period as an upper shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest develops east across the northern Rockies. Strong height falls will result in a deepening surface low over eastern MT during the day. The low will develop east/southeast into the western Dakotas during the evening while an associated surface cold front shifts east across the region into the overnight hours. A surface trough/dryline will extend southward from the low across the northern/central High Plains. South/southeasterly low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northward across KS/NE and into the Dakotas/eastern MT. Cooling aloft/steepening midlevel lapse rates atop this moist boundary-layer will result in a corridor of moderate to strong instability. Vertically veering wind profiles indicate supercells storm mode will be possible with initial convection developing during the afternoon. Initial storms are likely to first develop over higher terrain and near the surface low in MT, and southward along the dryline in an area of strong low-level convergence and increasing large-scale ascent. With time, a southerly low-level jet is forecast to increase during the evening. Thunderstorm clusters may grow upscale into a coupe of smaller bowing MCSs from far eastern MT/western Dakotas, and possibly across western NE. Large instability, a deeply mixed boundary layer with steep low-level lapse rates, and some dry air above 700 mb will support strong downdrafts capable of severe to significant wind gusts. Isolated to widely scattered large to very large hail (2.5+ inch diameter) also will be possible, especially with any discrete supercells. As the low-level jet increases toward evening, low-level SRH will increase and hodographs will become enlarged, especially near the surface low. A few tornadoes will be possibly, mainly in the 23-03z time frame. Severe potential will gradually wane with eastward extent overnight as capping increases across central/eastern ND/SD/NE. ...Eastern CO/KS into the southern High Plains/northwest OK... Vertical shear will be more marginal (20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes) with stronger deep-layer flow remaining displaced northward. Nevertheless, a narrow corridor for rich boundary-layer moisture and strong instability will exist along/just east of the surface dryline. Isolated/widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected by late afternoon into the evening. Transient supercells capable of mainly strong/severe gusts and hail will be possible during the afternoon/evening. Clustering may occur during the evening over KS as the low-level jet increases, but strong capping with eastward extent will likely limit severe potential overnight. ...UT/AZ/NM/western CO/WY... A relatively moist airmass will be in place, with surface dewpoints in the upper 40s to upper 50s F common across the region. This will aid in afternoon destabilization, with MLCAPE up to 750 J/kg forecast. Vertical shear will support at least transient organized cells as the area remains on the southern fringe of stronger mid/upper westerly flow. Isolated strong to severe gusts and marginal hail will be possible with storms during the afternoon into mid-evening. ...Eastern Carolinas/Southeast vicinity... Modest upper troughing will be oriented over the Southeast on Thursday. A weak surface boundary may sag southward across the Carolinas/GA while some forecast guidance indicates an MCV may be located over AL. A very moist airmass will be in place, and strong heating will aid in a corridor of moderate to strong instability. The most likely area for a few strong to severe storms will exist over the eastern Carolinas where strongest instability will align with modest vertical shear (around 25 kt effective shear magnitudes). Damaging gusts and isolated hail to near 1 inch diameter will be possible. Further west across parts of GA and AL, vertical shear will be very weak (less than 15 kt). This should preclude organized severe potential further west, but PW values greater than 2 inches and sufficient instability could result in a couple of strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING...WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing gusts to 80 mph, large hail greater than 2.5 inches, and a couple of tornadoes are possible across parts of eastern Montana into western portions of the northern and central Plains Thursday afternoon and evening. ...MT/ND/SD/NE vicinity... An upper ridge will initially be positioned over the northern High Plains vicinity on Thursday. The ridge will flatten and shift east through the period as an upper shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest develops east across the northern Rockies. Strong height falls will result in a deepening surface low over eastern MT during the day. The low will develop east/southeast into the western Dakotas during the evening while an associated surface cold front shifts east across the region into the overnight hours. A surface trough/dryline will extend southward from the low across the northern/central High Plains. South/southeasterly low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northward across KS/NE and into the Dakotas/eastern MT. Cooling aloft/steepening midlevel lapse rates atop this moist boundary-layer will result in a corridor of moderate to strong instability. Vertically veering wind profiles indicate supercells storm mode will be possible with initial convection developing during the afternoon. Initial storms are likely to first develop over higher terrain and near the surface low in MT, and southward along the dryline in an area of strong low-level convergence and increasing large-scale ascent. With time, a southerly low-level jet is forecast to increase during the evening. Thunderstorm clusters may grow upscale into a coupe of smaller bowing MCSs from far eastern MT/western Dakotas, and possibly across western NE. Large instability, a deeply mixed boundary layer with steep low-level lapse rates, and some dry air above 700 mb will support strong downdrafts capable of severe to significant wind gusts. Isolated to widely scattered large to very large hail (2.5+ inch diameter) also will be possible, especially with any discrete supercells. As the low-level jet increases toward evening, low-level SRH will increase and hodographs will become enlarged, especially near the surface low. A few tornadoes will be possibly, mainly in the 23-03z time frame. Severe potential will gradually wane with eastward extent overnight as capping increases across central/eastern ND/SD/NE. ...Eastern CO/KS into the southern High Plains/northwest OK... Vertical shear will be more marginal (20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes) with stronger deep-layer flow remaining displaced northward. Nevertheless, a narrow corridor for rich boundary-layer moisture and strong instability will exist along/just east of the surface dryline. Isolated/widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected by late afternoon into the evening. Transient supercells capable of mainly strong/severe gusts and hail will be possible during the afternoon/evening. Clustering may occur during the evening over KS as the low-level jet increases, but strong capping with eastward extent will likely limit severe potential overnight. ...UT/AZ/NM/western CO/WY... A relatively moist airmass will be in place, with surface dewpoints in the upper 40s to upper 50s F common across the region. This will aid in afternoon destabilization, with MLCAPE up to 750 J/kg forecast. Vertical shear will support at least transient organized cells as the area remains on the southern fringe of stronger mid/upper westerly flow. Isolated strong to severe gusts and marginal hail will be possible with storms during the afternoon into mid-evening. ...Eastern Carolinas/Southeast vicinity... Modest upper troughing will be oriented over the Southeast on Thursday. A weak surface boundary may sag southward across the Carolinas/GA while some forecast guidance indicates an MCV may be located over AL. A very moist airmass will be in place, and strong heating will aid in a corridor of moderate to strong instability. The most likely area for a few strong to severe storms will exist over the eastern Carolinas where strongest instability will align with modest vertical shear (around 25 kt effective shear magnitudes). Damaging gusts and isolated hail to near 1 inch diameter will be possible. Further west across parts of GA and AL, vertical shear will be very weak (less than 15 kt). This should preclude organized severe potential further west, but PW values greater than 2 inches and sufficient instability could result in a couple of strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING...WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing gusts to 80 mph, large hail greater than 2.5 inches, and a couple of tornadoes are possible across parts of eastern Montana into western portions of the northern and central Plains Thursday afternoon and evening. ...MT/ND/SD/NE vicinity... An upper ridge will initially be positioned over the northern High Plains vicinity on Thursday. The ridge will flatten and shift east through the period as an upper shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest develops east across the northern Rockies. Strong height falls will result in a deepening surface low over eastern MT during the day. The low will develop east/southeast into the western Dakotas during the evening while an associated surface cold front shifts east across the region into the overnight hours. A surface trough/dryline will extend southward from the low across the northern/central High Plains. South/southeasterly low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northward across KS/NE and into the Dakotas/eastern MT. Cooling aloft/steepening midlevel lapse rates atop this moist boundary-layer will result in a corridor of moderate to strong instability. Vertically veering wind profiles indicate supercells storm mode will be possible with initial convection developing during the afternoon. Initial storms are likely to first develop over higher terrain and near the surface low in MT, and southward along the dryline in an area of strong low-level convergence and increasing large-scale ascent. With time, a southerly low-level jet is forecast to increase during the evening. Thunderstorm clusters may grow upscale into a coupe of smaller bowing MCSs from far eastern MT/western Dakotas, and possibly across western NE. Large instability, a deeply mixed boundary layer with steep low-level lapse rates, and some dry air above 700 mb will support strong downdrafts capable of severe to significant wind gusts. Isolated to widely scattered large to very large hail (2.5+ inch diameter) also will be possible, especially with any discrete supercells. As the low-level jet increases toward evening, low-level SRH will increase and hodographs will become enlarged, especially near the surface low. A few tornadoes will be possibly, mainly in the 23-03z time frame. Severe potential will gradually wane with eastward extent overnight as capping increases across central/eastern ND/SD/NE. ...Eastern CO/KS into the southern High Plains/northwest OK... Vertical shear will be more marginal (20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes) with stronger deep-layer flow remaining displaced northward. Nevertheless, a narrow corridor for rich boundary-layer moisture and strong instability will exist along/just east of the surface dryline. Isolated/widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected by late afternoon into the evening. Transient supercells capable of mainly strong/severe gusts and hail will be possible during the afternoon/evening. Clustering may occur during the evening over KS as the low-level jet increases, but strong capping with eastward extent will likely limit severe potential overnight. ...UT/AZ/NM/western CO/WY... A relatively moist airmass will be in place, with surface dewpoints in the upper 40s to upper 50s F common across the region. This will aid in afternoon destabilization, with MLCAPE up to 750 J/kg forecast. Vertical shear will support at least transient organized cells as the area remains on the southern fringe of stronger mid/upper westerly flow. Isolated strong to severe gusts and marginal hail will be possible with storms during the afternoon into mid-evening. ...Eastern Carolinas/Southeast vicinity... Modest upper troughing will be oriented over the Southeast on Thursday. A weak surface boundary may sag southward across the Carolinas/GA while some forecast guidance indicates an MCV may be located over AL. A very moist airmass will be in place, and strong heating will aid in a corridor of moderate to strong instability. The most likely area for a few strong to severe storms will exist over the eastern Carolinas where strongest instability will align with modest vertical shear (around 25 kt effective shear magnitudes). Damaging gusts and isolated hail to near 1 inch diameter will be possible. Further west across parts of GA and AL, vertical shear will be very weak (less than 15 kt). This should preclude organized severe potential further west, but PW values greater than 2 inches and sufficient instability could result in a couple of strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING...WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing gusts to 80 mph, large hail greater than 2.5 inches, and a couple of tornadoes are possible across parts of eastern Montana into western portions of the northern and central Plains Thursday afternoon and evening. ...MT/ND/SD/NE vicinity... An upper ridge will initially be positioned over the northern High Plains vicinity on Thursday. The ridge will flatten and shift east through the period as an upper shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest develops east across the northern Rockies. Strong height falls will result in a deepening surface low over eastern MT during the day. The low will develop east/southeast into the western Dakotas during the evening while an associated surface cold front shifts east across the region into the overnight hours. A surface trough/dryline will extend southward from the low across the northern/central High Plains. South/southeasterly low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northward across KS/NE and into the Dakotas/eastern MT. Cooling aloft/steepening midlevel lapse rates atop this moist boundary-layer will result in a corridor of moderate to strong instability. Vertically veering wind profiles indicate supercells storm mode will be possible with initial convection developing during the afternoon. Initial storms are likely to first develop over higher terrain and near the surface low in MT, and southward along the dryline in an area of strong low-level convergence and increasing large-scale ascent. With time, a southerly low-level jet is forecast to increase during the evening. Thunderstorm clusters may grow upscale into a coupe of smaller bowing MCSs from far eastern MT/western Dakotas, and possibly across western NE. Large instability, a deeply mixed boundary layer with steep low-level lapse rates, and some dry air above 700 mb will support strong downdrafts capable of severe to significant wind gusts. Isolated to widely scattered large to very large hail (2.5+ inch diameter) also will be possible, especially with any discrete supercells. As the low-level jet increases toward evening, low-level SRH will increase and hodographs will become enlarged, especially near the surface low. A few tornadoes will be possibly, mainly in the 23-03z time frame. Severe potential will gradually wane with eastward extent overnight as capping increases across central/eastern ND/SD/NE. ...Eastern CO/KS into the southern High Plains/northwest OK... Vertical shear will be more marginal (20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes) with stronger deep-layer flow remaining displaced northward. Nevertheless, a narrow corridor for rich boundary-layer moisture and strong instability will exist along/just east of the surface dryline. Isolated/widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected by late afternoon into the evening. Transient supercells capable of mainly strong/severe gusts and hail will be possible during the afternoon/evening. Clustering may occur during the evening over KS as the low-level jet increases, but strong capping with eastward extent will likely limit severe potential overnight. ...UT/AZ/NM/western CO/WY... A relatively moist airmass will be in place, with surface dewpoints in the upper 40s to upper 50s F common across the region. This will aid in afternoon destabilization, with MLCAPE up to 750 J/kg forecast. Vertical shear will support at least transient organized cells as the area remains on the southern fringe of stronger mid/upper westerly flow. Isolated strong to severe gusts and marginal hail will be possible with storms during the afternoon into mid-evening. ...Eastern Carolinas/Southeast vicinity... Modest upper troughing will be oriented over the Southeast on Thursday. A weak surface boundary may sag southward across the Carolinas/GA while some forecast guidance indicates an MCV may be located over AL. A very moist airmass will be in place, and strong heating will aid in a corridor of moderate to strong instability. The most likely area for a few strong to severe storms will exist over the eastern Carolinas where strongest instability will align with modest vertical shear (around 25 kt effective shear magnitudes). Damaging gusts and isolated hail to near 1 inch diameter will be possible. Further west across parts of GA and AL, vertical shear will be very weak (less than 15 kt). This should preclude organized severe potential further west, but PW values greater than 2 inches and sufficient instability could result in a couple of strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING...WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing gusts to 80 mph, large hail greater than 2.5 inches, and a couple of tornadoes are possible across parts of eastern Montana into western portions of the northern and central Plains Thursday afternoon and evening. ...MT/ND/SD/NE vicinity... An upper ridge will initially be positioned over the northern High Plains vicinity on Thursday. The ridge will flatten and shift east through the period as an upper shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest develops east across the northern Rockies. Strong height falls will result in a deepening surface low over eastern MT during the day. The low will develop east/southeast into the western Dakotas during the evening while an associated surface cold front shifts east across the region into the overnight hours. A surface trough/dryline will extend southward from the low across the northern/central High Plains. South/southeasterly low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northward across KS/NE and into the Dakotas/eastern MT. Cooling aloft/steepening midlevel lapse rates atop this moist boundary-layer will result in a corridor of moderate to strong instability. Vertically veering wind profiles indicate supercells storm mode will be possible with initial convection developing during the afternoon. Initial storms are likely to first develop over higher terrain and near the surface low in MT, and southward along the dryline in an area of strong low-level convergence and increasing large-scale ascent. With time, a southerly low-level jet is forecast to increase during the evening. Thunderstorm clusters may grow upscale into a coupe of smaller bowing MCSs from far eastern MT/western Dakotas, and possibly across western NE. Large instability, a deeply mixed boundary layer with steep low-level lapse rates, and some dry air above 700 mb will support strong downdrafts capable of severe to significant wind gusts. Isolated to widely scattered large to very large hail (2.5+ inch diameter) also will be possible, especially with any discrete supercells. As the low-level jet increases toward evening, low-level SRH will increase and hodographs will become enlarged, especially near the surface low. A few tornadoes will be possibly, mainly in the 23-03z time frame. Severe potential will gradually wane with eastward extent overnight as capping increases across central/eastern ND/SD/NE. ...Eastern CO/KS into the southern High Plains/northwest OK... Vertical shear will be more marginal (20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes) with stronger deep-layer flow remaining displaced northward. Nevertheless, a narrow corridor for rich boundary-layer moisture and strong instability will exist along/just east of the surface dryline. Isolated/widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected by late afternoon into the evening. Transient supercells capable of mainly strong/severe gusts and hail will be possible during the afternoon/evening. Clustering may occur during the evening over KS as the low-level jet increases, but strong capping with eastward extent will likely limit severe potential overnight. ...UT/AZ/NM/western CO/WY... A relatively moist airmass will be in place, with surface dewpoints in the upper 40s to upper 50s F common across the region. This will aid in afternoon destabilization, with MLCAPE up to 750 J/kg forecast. Vertical shear will support at least transient organized cells as the area remains on the southern fringe of stronger mid/upper westerly flow. Isolated strong to severe gusts and marginal hail will be possible with storms during the afternoon into mid-evening. ...Eastern Carolinas/Southeast vicinity... Modest upper troughing will be oriented over the Southeast on Thursday. A weak surface boundary may sag southward across the Carolinas/GA while some forecast guidance indicates an MCV may be located over AL. A very moist airmass will be in place, and strong heating will aid in a corridor of moderate to strong instability. The most likely area for a few strong to severe storms will exist over the eastern Carolinas where strongest instability will align with modest vertical shear (around 25 kt effective shear magnitudes). Damaging gusts and isolated hail to near 1 inch diameter will be possible. Further west across parts of GA and AL, vertical shear will be very weak (less than 15 kt). This should preclude organized severe potential further west, but PW values greater than 2 inches and sufficient instability could result in a couple of strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING...WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing gusts to 80 mph, large hail greater than 2.5 inches, and a couple of tornadoes are possible across parts of eastern Montana into western portions of the northern and central Plains Thursday afternoon and evening. ...MT/ND/SD/NE vicinity... An upper ridge will initially be positioned over the northern High Plains vicinity on Thursday. The ridge will flatten and shift east through the period as an upper shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest develops east across the northern Rockies. Strong height falls will result in a deepening surface low over eastern MT during the day. The low will develop east/southeast into the western Dakotas during the evening while an associated surface cold front shifts east across the region into the overnight hours. A surface trough/dryline will extend southward from the low across the northern/central High Plains. South/southeasterly low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northward across KS/NE and into the Dakotas/eastern MT. Cooling aloft/steepening midlevel lapse rates atop this moist boundary-layer will result in a corridor of moderate to strong instability. Vertically veering wind profiles indicate supercells storm mode will be possible with initial convection developing during the afternoon. Initial storms are likely to first develop over higher terrain and near the surface low in MT, and southward along the dryline in an area of strong low-level convergence and increasing large-scale ascent. With time, a southerly low-level jet is forecast to increase during the evening. Thunderstorm clusters may grow upscale into a coupe of smaller bowing MCSs from far eastern MT/western Dakotas, and possibly across western NE. Large instability, a deeply mixed boundary layer with steep low-level lapse rates, and some dry air above 700 mb will support strong downdrafts capable of severe to significant wind gusts. Isolated to widely scattered large to very large hail (2.5+ inch diameter) also will be possible, especially with any discrete supercells. As the low-level jet increases toward evening, low-level SRH will increase and hodographs will become enlarged, especially near the surface low. A few tornadoes will be possibly, mainly in the 23-03z time frame. Severe potential will gradually wane with eastward extent overnight as capping increases across central/eastern ND/SD/NE. ...Eastern CO/KS into the southern High Plains/northwest OK... Vertical shear will be more marginal (20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes) with stronger deep-layer flow remaining displaced northward. Nevertheless, a narrow corridor for rich boundary-layer moisture and strong instability will exist along/just east of the surface dryline. Isolated/widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected by late afternoon into the evening. Transient supercells capable of mainly strong/severe gusts and hail will be possible during the afternoon/evening. Clustering may occur during the evening over KS as the low-level jet increases, but strong capping with eastward extent will likely limit severe potential overnight. ...UT/AZ/NM/western CO/WY... A relatively moist airmass will be in place, with surface dewpoints in the upper 40s to upper 50s F common across the region. This will aid in afternoon destabilization, with MLCAPE up to 750 J/kg forecast. Vertical shear will support at least transient organized cells as the area remains on the southern fringe of stronger mid/upper westerly flow. Isolated strong to severe gusts and marginal hail will be possible with storms during the afternoon into mid-evening. ...Eastern Carolinas/Southeast vicinity... Modest upper troughing will be oriented over the Southeast on Thursday. A weak surface boundary may sag southward across the Carolinas/GA while some forecast guidance indicates an MCV may be located over AL. A very moist airmass will be in place, and strong heating will aid in a corridor of moderate to strong instability. The most likely area for a few strong to severe storms will exist over the eastern Carolinas where strongest instability will align with modest vertical shear (around 25 kt effective shear magnitudes). Damaging gusts and isolated hail to near 1 inch diameter will be possible. Further west across parts of GA and AL, vertical shear will be very weak (less than 15 kt). This should preclude organized severe potential further west, but PW values greater than 2 inches and sufficient instability could result in a couple of strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING...WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing gusts to 80 mph, large hail greater than 2.5 inches, and a couple of tornadoes are possible across parts of eastern Montana into western portions of the northern and central Plains Thursday afternoon and evening. ...MT/ND/SD/NE vicinity... An upper ridge will initially be positioned over the northern High Plains vicinity on Thursday. The ridge will flatten and shift east through the period as an upper shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest develops east across the northern Rockies. Strong height falls will result in a deepening surface low over eastern MT during the day. The low will develop east/southeast into the western Dakotas during the evening while an associated surface cold front shifts east across the region into the overnight hours. A surface trough/dryline will extend southward from the low across the northern/central High Plains. South/southeasterly low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northward across KS/NE and into the Dakotas/eastern MT. Cooling aloft/steepening midlevel lapse rates atop this moist boundary-layer will result in a corridor of moderate to strong instability. Vertically veering wind profiles indicate supercells storm mode will be possible with initial convection developing during the afternoon. Initial storms are likely to first develop over higher terrain and near the surface low in MT, and southward along the dryline in an area of strong low-level convergence and increasing large-scale ascent. With time, a southerly low-level jet is forecast to increase during the evening. Thunderstorm clusters may grow upscale into a coupe of smaller bowing MCSs from far eastern MT/western Dakotas, and possibly across western NE. Large instability, a deeply mixed boundary layer with steep low-level lapse rates, and some dry air above 700 mb will support strong downdrafts capable of severe to significant wind gusts. Isolated to widely scattered large to very large hail (2.5+ inch diameter) also will be possible, especially with any discrete supercells. As the low-level jet increases toward evening, low-level SRH will increase and hodographs will become enlarged, especially near the surface low. A few tornadoes will be possibly, mainly in the 23-03z time frame. Severe potential will gradually wane with eastward extent overnight as capping increases across central/eastern ND/SD/NE. ...Eastern CO/KS into the southern High Plains/northwest OK... Vertical shear will be more marginal (20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes) with stronger deep-layer flow remaining displaced northward. Nevertheless, a narrow corridor for rich boundary-layer moisture and strong instability will exist along/just east of the surface dryline. Isolated/widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected by late afternoon into the evening. Transient supercells capable of mainly strong/severe gusts and hail will be possible during the afternoon/evening. Clustering may occur during the evening over KS as the low-level jet increases, but strong capping with eastward extent will likely limit severe potential overnight. ...UT/AZ/NM/western CO/WY... A relatively moist airmass will be in place, with surface dewpoints in the upper 40s to upper 50s F common across the region. This will aid in afternoon destabilization, with MLCAPE up to 750 J/kg forecast. Vertical shear will support at least transient organized cells as the area remains on the southern fringe of stronger mid/upper westerly flow. Isolated strong to severe gusts and marginal hail will be possible with storms during the afternoon into mid-evening. ...Eastern Carolinas/Southeast vicinity... Modest upper troughing will be oriented over the Southeast on Thursday. A weak surface boundary may sag southward across the Carolinas/GA while some forecast guidance indicates an MCV may be located over AL. A very moist airmass will be in place, and strong heating will aid in a corridor of moderate to strong instability. The most likely area for a few strong to severe storms will exist over the eastern Carolinas where strongest instability will align with modest vertical shear (around 25 kt effective shear magnitudes). Damaging gusts and isolated hail to near 1 inch diameter will be possible. Further west across parts of GA and AL, vertical shear will be very weak (less than 15 kt). This should preclude organized severe potential further west, but PW values greater than 2 inches and sufficient instability could result in a couple of strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING...WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing gusts to 80 mph, large hail greater than 2.5 inches, and a couple of tornadoes are possible across parts of eastern Montana into western portions of the northern and central Plains Thursday afternoon and evening. ...MT/ND/SD/NE vicinity... An upper ridge will initially be positioned over the northern High Plains vicinity on Thursday. The ridge will flatten and shift east through the period as an upper shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest develops east across the northern Rockies. Strong height falls will result in a deepening surface low over eastern MT during the day. The low will develop east/southeast into the western Dakotas during the evening while an associated surface cold front shifts east across the region into the overnight hours. A surface trough/dryline will extend southward from the low across the northern/central High Plains. South/southeasterly low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northward across KS/NE and into the Dakotas/eastern MT. Cooling aloft/steepening midlevel lapse rates atop this moist boundary-layer will result in a corridor of moderate to strong instability. Vertically veering wind profiles indicate supercells storm mode will be possible with initial convection developing during the afternoon. Initial storms are likely to first develop over higher terrain and near the surface low in MT, and southward along the dryline in an area of strong low-level convergence and increasing large-scale ascent. With time, a southerly low-level jet is forecast to increase during the evening. Thunderstorm clusters may grow upscale into a coupe of smaller bowing MCSs from far eastern MT/western Dakotas, and possibly across western NE. Large instability, a deeply mixed boundary layer with steep low-level lapse rates, and some dry air above 700 mb will support strong downdrafts capable of severe to significant wind gusts. Isolated to widely scattered large to very large hail (2.5+ inch diameter) also will be possible, especially with any discrete supercells. As the low-level jet increases toward evening, low-level SRH will increase and hodographs will become enlarged, especially near the surface low. A few tornadoes will be possibly, mainly in the 23-03z time frame. Severe potential will gradually wane with eastward extent overnight as capping increases across central/eastern ND/SD/NE. ...Eastern CO/KS into the southern High Plains/northwest OK... Vertical shear will be more marginal (20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes) with stronger deep-layer flow remaining displaced northward. Nevertheless, a narrow corridor for rich boundary-layer moisture and strong instability will exist along/just east of the surface dryline. Isolated/widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected by late afternoon into the evening. Transient supercells capable of mainly strong/severe gusts and hail will be possible during the afternoon/evening. Clustering may occur during the evening over KS as the low-level jet increases, but strong capping with eastward extent will likely limit severe potential overnight. ...UT/AZ/NM/western CO/WY... A relatively moist airmass will be in place, with surface dewpoints in the upper 40s to upper 50s F common across the region. This will aid in afternoon destabilization, with MLCAPE up to 750 J/kg forecast. Vertical shear will support at least transient organized cells as the area remains on the southern fringe of stronger mid/upper westerly flow. Isolated strong to severe gusts and marginal hail will be possible with storms during the afternoon into mid-evening. ...Eastern Carolinas/Southeast vicinity... Modest upper troughing will be oriented over the Southeast on Thursday. A weak surface boundary may sag southward across the Carolinas/GA while some forecast guidance indicates an MCV may be located over AL. A very moist airmass will be in place, and strong heating will aid in a corridor of moderate to strong instability. The most likely area for a few strong to severe storms will exist over the eastern Carolinas where strongest instability will align with modest vertical shear (around 25 kt effective shear magnitudes). Damaging gusts and isolated hail to near 1 inch diameter will be possible. Further west across parts of GA and AL, vertical shear will be very weak (less than 15 kt). This should preclude organized severe potential further west, but PW values greater than 2 inches and sufficient instability could result in a couple of strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 06/26/2024 Read more

WW 0464 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0464 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0464 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0464 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0464 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0464 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0464 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0464 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z A Critical risk area has been introduced for portions of southeast OR and northwest NV. Multiple thunderstorms were noted overnight and early this morning across northwest NV into southeast OR and far southwest ID. MRMS rainfall estimates suggest that most of the associated lightning strikes were not accompanied by wetting rainfall. 16 UTC surface observations upstream across northern CA/southern OR show RH already falling into the 25-30% range. These observations support the recent trend in ensemble guidance towards higher probability for sustained critical conditions across southeast OR/northwest NV. While these conditions may be somewhat transient (persisting only 2-3 hours for most locations), the coincidence with the recent dry lightning strikes warrants a higher risk category. Additional thunderstorm development remains possible through early afternoon along the OR/ID/NV tri-state region, but increasing PWAT values should favor a tendency for a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. Further north across WA, a cluster of thunderstorms has developed over the past 2 hours, and while MRMS rainfall rates appear to be above 0.1 in/hour, storm motions above 40 knots should limit rainfall totals. Consequently, the potential for dry lightning strikes should continue through at least early afternoon. Dry/windy downslope conditions remain likely this afternoon (see the previous discussion for additional details). ..Moore.. 06/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the western and northwestern Great Basin as early as this morning. Then, late this morning through this afternoon, additional isolated dry thunderstorms may develop along and east of the Cascades of WA. These areas will also be favored regions for increasing west to southwest sustained surface winds around 20-25 mph via a tightening surface pressure gradient along and just behind a cold front. Clearer skies in the wake of mid-level ascent accompanying a shortwave trough will also allow for deeper mixing/momentum transfer of stronger flow from aloft across these regions. The lowest RH is anticipated over the Great Basin, where low teens should persist throughout most of the day. Further north, east of the Cascades, minimum RH will range from 20-30 percent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z A Critical risk area has been introduced for portions of southeast OR and northwest NV. Multiple thunderstorms were noted overnight and early this morning across northwest NV into southeast OR and far southwest ID. MRMS rainfall estimates suggest that most of the associated lightning strikes were not accompanied by wetting rainfall. 16 UTC surface observations upstream across northern CA/southern OR show RH already falling into the 25-30% range. These observations support the recent trend in ensemble guidance towards higher probability for sustained critical conditions across southeast OR/northwest NV. While these conditions may be somewhat transient (persisting only 2-3 hours for most locations), the coincidence with the recent dry lightning strikes warrants a higher risk category. Additional thunderstorm development remains possible through early afternoon along the OR/ID/NV tri-state region, but increasing PWAT values should favor a tendency for a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. Further north across WA, a cluster of thunderstorms has developed over the past 2 hours, and while MRMS rainfall rates appear to be above 0.1 in/hour, storm motions above 40 knots should limit rainfall totals. Consequently, the potential for dry lightning strikes should continue through at least early afternoon. Dry/windy downslope conditions remain likely this afternoon (see the previous discussion for additional details). ..Moore.. 06/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the western and northwestern Great Basin as early as this morning. Then, late this morning through this afternoon, additional isolated dry thunderstorms may develop along and east of the Cascades of WA. These areas will also be favored regions for increasing west to southwest sustained surface winds around 20-25 mph via a tightening surface pressure gradient along and just behind a cold front. Clearer skies in the wake of mid-level ascent accompanying a shortwave trough will also allow for deeper mixing/momentum transfer of stronger flow from aloft across these regions. The lowest RH is anticipated over the Great Basin, where low teens should persist throughout most of the day. Further north, east of the Cascades, minimum RH will range from 20-30 percent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z A Critical risk area has been introduced for portions of southeast OR and northwest NV. Multiple thunderstorms were noted overnight and early this morning across northwest NV into southeast OR and far southwest ID. MRMS rainfall estimates suggest that most of the associated lightning strikes were not accompanied by wetting rainfall. 16 UTC surface observations upstream across northern CA/southern OR show RH already falling into the 25-30% range. These observations support the recent trend in ensemble guidance towards higher probability for sustained critical conditions across southeast OR/northwest NV. While these conditions may be somewhat transient (persisting only 2-3 hours for most locations), the coincidence with the recent dry lightning strikes warrants a higher risk category. Additional thunderstorm development remains possible through early afternoon along the OR/ID/NV tri-state region, but increasing PWAT values should favor a tendency for a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. Further north across WA, a cluster of thunderstorms has developed over the past 2 hours, and while MRMS rainfall rates appear to be above 0.1 in/hour, storm motions above 40 knots should limit rainfall totals. Consequently, the potential for dry lightning strikes should continue through at least early afternoon. Dry/windy downslope conditions remain likely this afternoon (see the previous discussion for additional details). ..Moore.. 06/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the western and northwestern Great Basin as early as this morning. Then, late this morning through this afternoon, additional isolated dry thunderstorms may develop along and east of the Cascades of WA. These areas will also be favored regions for increasing west to southwest sustained surface winds around 20-25 mph via a tightening surface pressure gradient along and just behind a cold front. Clearer skies in the wake of mid-level ascent accompanying a shortwave trough will also allow for deeper mixing/momentum transfer of stronger flow from aloft across these regions. The lowest RH is anticipated over the Great Basin, where low teens should persist throughout most of the day. Further north, east of the Cascades, minimum RH will range from 20-30 percent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z A Critical risk area has been introduced for portions of southeast OR and northwest NV. Multiple thunderstorms were noted overnight and early this morning across northwest NV into southeast OR and far southwest ID. MRMS rainfall estimates suggest that most of the associated lightning strikes were not accompanied by wetting rainfall. 16 UTC surface observations upstream across northern CA/southern OR show RH already falling into the 25-30% range. These observations support the recent trend in ensemble guidance towards higher probability for sustained critical conditions across southeast OR/northwest NV. While these conditions may be somewhat transient (persisting only 2-3 hours for most locations), the coincidence with the recent dry lightning strikes warrants a higher risk category. Additional thunderstorm development remains possible through early afternoon along the OR/ID/NV tri-state region, but increasing PWAT values should favor a tendency for a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. Further north across WA, a cluster of thunderstorms has developed over the past 2 hours, and while MRMS rainfall rates appear to be above 0.1 in/hour, storm motions above 40 knots should limit rainfall totals. Consequently, the potential for dry lightning strikes should continue through at least early afternoon. Dry/windy downslope conditions remain likely this afternoon (see the previous discussion for additional details). ..Moore.. 06/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the western and northwestern Great Basin as early as this morning. Then, late this morning through this afternoon, additional isolated dry thunderstorms may develop along and east of the Cascades of WA. These areas will also be favored regions for increasing west to southwest sustained surface winds around 20-25 mph via a tightening surface pressure gradient along and just behind a cold front. Clearer skies in the wake of mid-level ascent accompanying a shortwave trough will also allow for deeper mixing/momentum transfer of stronger flow from aloft across these regions. The lowest RH is anticipated over the Great Basin, where low teens should persist throughout most of the day. Further north, east of the Cascades, minimum RH will range from 20-30 percent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z A Critical risk area has been introduced for portions of southeast OR and northwest NV. Multiple thunderstorms were noted overnight and early this morning across northwest NV into southeast OR and far southwest ID. MRMS rainfall estimates suggest that most of the associated lightning strikes were not accompanied by wetting rainfall. 16 UTC surface observations upstream across northern CA/southern OR show RH already falling into the 25-30% range. These observations support the recent trend in ensemble guidance towards higher probability for sustained critical conditions across southeast OR/northwest NV. While these conditions may be somewhat transient (persisting only 2-3 hours for most locations), the coincidence with the recent dry lightning strikes warrants a higher risk category. Additional thunderstorm development remains possible through early afternoon along the OR/ID/NV tri-state region, but increasing PWAT values should favor a tendency for a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. Further north across WA, a cluster of thunderstorms has developed over the past 2 hours, and while MRMS rainfall rates appear to be above 0.1 in/hour, storm motions above 40 knots should limit rainfall totals. Consequently, the potential for dry lightning strikes should continue through at least early afternoon. Dry/windy downslope conditions remain likely this afternoon (see the previous discussion for additional details). ..Moore.. 06/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the western and northwestern Great Basin as early as this morning. Then, late this morning through this afternoon, additional isolated dry thunderstorms may develop along and east of the Cascades of WA. These areas will also be favored regions for increasing west to southwest sustained surface winds around 20-25 mph via a tightening surface pressure gradient along and just behind a cold front. Clearer skies in the wake of mid-level ascent accompanying a shortwave trough will also allow for deeper mixing/momentum transfer of stronger flow from aloft across these regions. The lowest RH is anticipated over the Great Basin, where low teens should persist throughout most of the day. Further north, east of the Cascades, minimum RH will range from 20-30 percent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z A Critical risk area has been introduced for portions of southeast OR and northwest NV. Multiple thunderstorms were noted overnight and early this morning across northwest NV into southeast OR and far southwest ID. MRMS rainfall estimates suggest that most of the associated lightning strikes were not accompanied by wetting rainfall. 16 UTC surface observations upstream across northern CA/southern OR show RH already falling into the 25-30% range. These observations support the recent trend in ensemble guidance towards higher probability for sustained critical conditions across southeast OR/northwest NV. While these conditions may be somewhat transient (persisting only 2-3 hours for most locations), the coincidence with the recent dry lightning strikes warrants a higher risk category. Additional thunderstorm development remains possible through early afternoon along the OR/ID/NV tri-state region, but increasing PWAT values should favor a tendency for a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. Further north across WA, a cluster of thunderstorms has developed over the past 2 hours, and while MRMS rainfall rates appear to be above 0.1 in/hour, storm motions above 40 knots should limit rainfall totals. Consequently, the potential for dry lightning strikes should continue through at least early afternoon. Dry/windy downslope conditions remain likely this afternoon (see the previous discussion for additional details). ..Moore.. 06/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the western and northwestern Great Basin as early as this morning. Then, late this morning through this afternoon, additional isolated dry thunderstorms may develop along and east of the Cascades of WA. These areas will also be favored regions for increasing west to southwest sustained surface winds around 20-25 mph via a tightening surface pressure gradient along and just behind a cold front. Clearer skies in the wake of mid-level ascent accompanying a shortwave trough will also allow for deeper mixing/momentum transfer of stronger flow from aloft across these regions. The lowest RH is anticipated over the Great Basin, where low teens should persist throughout most of the day. Further north, east of the Cascades, minimum RH will range from 20-30 percent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z A Critical risk area has been introduced for portions of southeast OR and northwest NV. Multiple thunderstorms were noted overnight and early this morning across northwest NV into southeast OR and far southwest ID. MRMS rainfall estimates suggest that most of the associated lightning strikes were not accompanied by wetting rainfall. 16 UTC surface observations upstream across northern CA/southern OR show RH already falling into the 25-30% range. These observations support the recent trend in ensemble guidance towards higher probability for sustained critical conditions across southeast OR/northwest NV. While these conditions may be somewhat transient (persisting only 2-3 hours for most locations), the coincidence with the recent dry lightning strikes warrants a higher risk category. Additional thunderstorm development remains possible through early afternoon along the OR/ID/NV tri-state region, but increasing PWAT values should favor a tendency for a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. Further north across WA, a cluster of thunderstorms has developed over the past 2 hours, and while MRMS rainfall rates appear to be above 0.1 in/hour, storm motions above 40 knots should limit rainfall totals. Consequently, the potential for dry lightning strikes should continue through at least early afternoon. Dry/windy downslope conditions remain likely this afternoon (see the previous discussion for additional details). ..Moore.. 06/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the western and northwestern Great Basin as early as this morning. Then, late this morning through this afternoon, additional isolated dry thunderstorms may develop along and east of the Cascades of WA. These areas will also be favored regions for increasing west to southwest sustained surface winds around 20-25 mph via a tightening surface pressure gradient along and just behind a cold front. Clearer skies in the wake of mid-level ascent accompanying a shortwave trough will also allow for deeper mixing/momentum transfer of stronger flow from aloft across these regions. The lowest RH is anticipated over the Great Basin, where low teens should persist throughout most of the day. Further north, east of the Cascades, minimum RH will range from 20-30 percent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more