Severe Storms

WW 0463 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 463 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOSIER..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...ICT...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 463 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-007-009-015-033-047-071-083-087-089-101-115-127-129-131- 143-261140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BENTON BOONE CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN JOHNSON LOGAN MADISON MARION NEWTON POPE SCOTT SEARCY SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON KSC001-011-015-017-019-021-037-049-073-099-115-125-133-205-207- 261140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BOURBON BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE CRAWFORD ELK GREENWOOD LABETTE MARION MONTGOMERY NEOSHO WILSON WOODSON Read more

WW 0462 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 462 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E SZL TO 10 ENE VIH TO 35 NW POF. ..MOSIER..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 462 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC015-029-039-043-057-059-065-067-077-085-091-105-125-131-141- 149-153-161-167-169-185-203-213-215-225-229-261140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CAMDEN CEDAR CHRISTIAN DADE DALLAS DENT DOUGLAS GREENE HICKORY HOWELL LACLEDE MARIES MILLER MORGAN OREGON OZARK PHELPS POLK PULASKI ST. CLAIR SHANNON TANEY TEXAS WEBSTER WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0462 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 462 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E SZL TO 10 ENE VIH TO 35 NW POF. ..MOSIER..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 462 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC015-029-039-043-057-059-065-067-077-085-091-105-125-131-141- 149-153-161-167-169-185-203-213-215-225-229-261140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CAMDEN CEDAR CHRISTIAN DADE DALLAS DENT DOUGLAS GREENE HICKORY HOWELL LACLEDE MARIES MILLER MORGAN OREGON OZARK PHELPS POLK PULASKI ST. CLAIR SHANNON TANEY TEXAS WEBSTER WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0461 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 461 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW SZL TO 30 ESE SZL. ..MOSIER..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...OAX...DMX...TOP...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 461 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC003-031-111-261140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON COFFEY LYON MOC013-083-261140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BATES HENRY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0461 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 461 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW SZL TO 30 ESE SZL. ..MOSIER..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...OAX...DMX...TOP...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 461 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC003-031-111-261140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON COFFEY LYON MOC013-083-261140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BATES HENRY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0461 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 461 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW SZL TO 30 ESE SZL. ..MOSIER..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...OAX...DMX...TOP...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 461 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC003-031-111-261140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON COFFEY LYON MOC013-083-261140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BATES HENRY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0461 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 461 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW SZL TO 30 ESE SZL. ..MOSIER..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...OAX...DMX...TOP...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 461 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC003-031-111-261140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON COFFEY LYON MOC013-083-261140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BATES HENRY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0461 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 461 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW SZL TO 30 ESE SZL. ..MOSIER..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...OAX...DMX...TOP...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 461 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC003-031-111-261140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON COFFEY LYON MOC013-083-261140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BATES HENRY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 461 SEVERE TSTM IA KS MO NE 260440Z - 261200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 461 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Iowa Northeast and East-Central Kansas Northern and Western Missouri Eastern Nebraska * Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 1140 PM until 700 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms will continue to pose a threat for large hail around 1-2 inches in diameter overnight. The threat for severe/damaging winds up to 60-75 mph will likely increase as an intense bowing cluster forms and moves southeastward through the early morning hours. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west southwest of Lincoln NE to 40 miles southeast of Chillicothe MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 459...WW 460... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 31035. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0462 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 462 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E SZL TO 10 ENE VIH TO 35 NW POF. ..MOSIER..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 462 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC015-029-039-043-057-059-065-067-077-085-091-105-125-131-141- 149-153-161-167-169-185-203-213-215-225-229-261040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CAMDEN CEDAR CHRISTIAN DADE DALLAS DENT DOUGLAS GREENE HICKORY HOWELL LACLEDE MARIES MILLER MORGAN OREGON OZARK PHELPS POLK PULASKI ST. CLAIR SHANNON TANEY TEXAS WEBSTER WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1423 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 461...462... FOR EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS...FAR NORTHEAST OK...SOUTHWEST MO...FAR NORTHWEST AR
Mesoscale Discussion 1423 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Areas affected...East-Central/Southeast KS...Far Northeast OK...Southwest MO...Far Northwest AR Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 461...462... Valid 260835Z - 261000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 461, 462 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging gusts remain possible across east-central KS and west-central MO. Additional severe potential may extend south into portions of southeast KS, far southwest MO, far northeast OK, and far northwest AR, and trends are being monitored for a possible watch. DISCUSSION...Complex convective evolution is underway across eastern KS as a southeastward-progressing convective line begins to interact with a more southward-progressing line ahead of it. This southward-progressing line is also interacting with more cellular, warm-air advection thunderstorms that extend from east-central KS into far northeast OK. The quickest forward motion exists with the southeastward-progressing line over northeast KS, and the general expectation is for this line to remain dominant as it continues southeastward, with perhaps a shift to a more southerly motion once it encounters the warm-air advection responsible for the east-central/southeast KS cellular development. However, strong updrafts exist in the Kansas City vicinity (along the western edge of the southward-progressing line), and there is some potential this portion begins to surge southward as it interacts with the warm-air advection to its south. In either case, portions of southeast KS, far southwest MO, far northeast OK, and far northwest AR may eventually be impacted by whatever evolves. As a result, convective trends are being monitored for a potential watch. Until this line arrives, isolated hail is possible within the more cellular storms across the region. ..Mosier/Edwards.. 06/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 38829645 38839473 35949299 35489593 37439662 38829645 Read more

WW 0461 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 461 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E TOP TO 45 SE CDJ. ..MOSIER..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...OAX...DMX...TOP...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 461 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC003-031-045-059-091-107-111-121-127-139-209-261040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON COFFEY DOUGLAS FRANKLIN JOHNSON LINN LYON MIAMI MORRIS OSAGE WYANDOTTE MOC013-037-053-083-089-095-101-107-159-195-261040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BATES CASS COOPER HENRY HOWARD JACKSON JOHNSON LAFAYETTE PETTIS SALINE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0463 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0463 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0462 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 462 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOSIER..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 462 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC007-015-019-027-029-039-043-051-055-057-059-065-067-071-073- 077-085-091-093-105-125-131-135-137-139-141-149-151-153-161-167- 169-179-185-203-213-215-219-221-225-229-260940- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUDRAIN BENTON BOONE CALLAWAY CAMDEN CEDAR CHRISTIAN COLE CRAWFORD DADE DALLAS DENT DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GASCONADE GREENE HICKORY HOWELL IRON LACLEDE MARIES MILLER MONITEAU MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN OREGON OSAGE OZARK PHELPS POLK PULASKI REYNOLDS ST. CLAIR SHANNON TANEY TEXAS WARREN WASHINGTON WEBSTER WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Saturday: Central/southern Plains into the Midwest/OH Valley/Northeast... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the upper Great Lakes across parts of Ontario and Quebec on D4/Saturday, in conjunction with a surface cyclone. A belt of relatively strong mid/upper-level flow will move eastward along the southern periphery of this trough. The extent to which the stronger flow overlaps the warm sector of the cyclone is somewhat uncertain, but a corridor of organized severe-thunderstorm potential could evolve across parts of the Midwest/OH Valley into parts of the Northeast. Farther southwest, a cold front moving across the Ozarks vicinity and central/southern Plains will tend to be displaced from stronger flow aloft. However, potentially strong instability could support some severe threat in association with the front from parts of southern KS and OK into northern AR and southern MO. ...D5/Sunday: Mid Atlantic into the Northeast... Timing of the cold front that moves across parts of the Great Lakes on Saturday becomes increasingly uncertain by Sunday. However, a slower frontal progression would allow development of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms from parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast. ...D5/Sunday: Central/northern High Plains... A mid/upper-level trough is generally forecast to move from the Northwest across the northern Rockies on Sunday. Some low-level moisture return is expected to the east of a developing surface low across WY/MT. Depending on the timing of the trough and magnitude of moisture return, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the northern/central High Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. ...D6/Monday into D7/Tuesday: Parts of the central/northern Great Plains into the Midwest... The mid/upper-level trough that moves across the northern Rockies on Sunday is forecast to continue eastward into the northern/central Great Plains on Monday, as a surface low moves northeastward across the Dakotas in conjunction with a warm front. The corridor of favorable instability may be relatively confined due to the influence of a surface ridge covering much of the eastern CONUS, but some severe-thunderstorm potential could evolve from parts of the Dakotas southward into KS/NE, and potentially farther east into MN/IA/MO. Depending on the extent of moisture return and destabilization, some severe potential could spread into a larger part of the Midwest on D7/Tuesday, as the mid/upper-level trough continues eastward. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Saturday: Central/southern Plains into the Midwest/OH Valley/Northeast... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the upper Great Lakes across parts of Ontario and Quebec on D4/Saturday, in conjunction with a surface cyclone. A belt of relatively strong mid/upper-level flow will move eastward along the southern periphery of this trough. The extent to which the stronger flow overlaps the warm sector of the cyclone is somewhat uncertain, but a corridor of organized severe-thunderstorm potential could evolve across parts of the Midwest/OH Valley into parts of the Northeast. Farther southwest, a cold front moving across the Ozarks vicinity and central/southern Plains will tend to be displaced from stronger flow aloft. However, potentially strong instability could support some severe threat in association with the front from parts of southern KS and OK into northern AR and southern MO. ...D5/Sunday: Mid Atlantic into the Northeast... Timing of the cold front that moves across parts of the Great Lakes on Saturday becomes increasingly uncertain by Sunday. However, a slower frontal progression would allow development of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms from parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast. ...D5/Sunday: Central/northern High Plains... A mid/upper-level trough is generally forecast to move from the Northwest across the northern Rockies on Sunday. Some low-level moisture return is expected to the east of a developing surface low across WY/MT. Depending on the timing of the trough and magnitude of moisture return, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the northern/central High Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. ...D6/Monday into D7/Tuesday: Parts of the central/northern Great Plains into the Midwest... The mid/upper-level trough that moves across the northern Rockies on Sunday is forecast to continue eastward into the northern/central Great Plains on Monday, as a surface low moves northeastward across the Dakotas in conjunction with a warm front. The corridor of favorable instability may be relatively confined due to the influence of a surface ridge covering much of the eastern CONUS, but some severe-thunderstorm potential could evolve from parts of the Dakotas southward into KS/NE, and potentially farther east into MN/IA/MO. Depending on the extent of moisture return and destabilization, some severe potential could spread into a larger part of the Midwest on D7/Tuesday, as the mid/upper-level trough continues eastward. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Saturday: Central/southern Plains into the Midwest/OH Valley/Northeast... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the upper Great Lakes across parts of Ontario and Quebec on D4/Saturday, in conjunction with a surface cyclone. A belt of relatively strong mid/upper-level flow will move eastward along the southern periphery of this trough. The extent to which the stronger flow overlaps the warm sector of the cyclone is somewhat uncertain, but a corridor of organized severe-thunderstorm potential could evolve across parts of the Midwest/OH Valley into parts of the Northeast. Farther southwest, a cold front moving across the Ozarks vicinity and central/southern Plains will tend to be displaced from stronger flow aloft. However, potentially strong instability could support some severe threat in association with the front from parts of southern KS and OK into northern AR and southern MO. ...D5/Sunday: Mid Atlantic into the Northeast... Timing of the cold front that moves across parts of the Great Lakes on Saturday becomes increasingly uncertain by Sunday. However, a slower frontal progression would allow development of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms from parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast. ...D5/Sunday: Central/northern High Plains... A mid/upper-level trough is generally forecast to move from the Northwest across the northern Rockies on Sunday. Some low-level moisture return is expected to the east of a developing surface low across WY/MT. Depending on the timing of the trough and magnitude of moisture return, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the northern/central High Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. ...D6/Monday into D7/Tuesday: Parts of the central/northern Great Plains into the Midwest... The mid/upper-level trough that moves across the northern Rockies on Sunday is forecast to continue eastward into the northern/central Great Plains on Monday, as a surface low moves northeastward across the Dakotas in conjunction with a warm front. The corridor of favorable instability may be relatively confined due to the influence of a surface ridge covering much of the eastern CONUS, but some severe-thunderstorm potential could evolve from parts of the Dakotas southward into KS/NE, and potentially farther east into MN/IA/MO. Depending on the extent of moisture return and destabilization, some severe potential could spread into a larger part of the Midwest on D7/Tuesday, as the mid/upper-level trough continues eastward. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Saturday: Central/southern Plains into the Midwest/OH Valley/Northeast... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the upper Great Lakes across parts of Ontario and Quebec on D4/Saturday, in conjunction with a surface cyclone. A belt of relatively strong mid/upper-level flow will move eastward along the southern periphery of this trough. The extent to which the stronger flow overlaps the warm sector of the cyclone is somewhat uncertain, but a corridor of organized severe-thunderstorm potential could evolve across parts of the Midwest/OH Valley into parts of the Northeast. Farther southwest, a cold front moving across the Ozarks vicinity and central/southern Plains will tend to be displaced from stronger flow aloft. However, potentially strong instability could support some severe threat in association with the front from parts of southern KS and OK into northern AR and southern MO. ...D5/Sunday: Mid Atlantic into the Northeast... Timing of the cold front that moves across parts of the Great Lakes on Saturday becomes increasingly uncertain by Sunday. However, a slower frontal progression would allow development of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms from parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast. ...D5/Sunday: Central/northern High Plains... A mid/upper-level trough is generally forecast to move from the Northwest across the northern Rockies on Sunday. Some low-level moisture return is expected to the east of a developing surface low across WY/MT. Depending on the timing of the trough and magnitude of moisture return, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the northern/central High Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. ...D6/Monday into D7/Tuesday: Parts of the central/northern Great Plains into the Midwest... The mid/upper-level trough that moves across the northern Rockies on Sunday is forecast to continue eastward into the northern/central Great Plains on Monday, as a surface low moves northeastward across the Dakotas in conjunction with a warm front. The corridor of favorable instability may be relatively confined due to the influence of a surface ridge covering much of the eastern CONUS, but some severe-thunderstorm potential could evolve from parts of the Dakotas southward into KS/NE, and potentially farther east into MN/IA/MO. Depending on the extent of moisture return and destabilization, some severe potential could spread into a larger part of the Midwest on D7/Tuesday, as the mid/upper-level trough continues eastward. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Saturday: Central/southern Plains into the Midwest/OH Valley/Northeast... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the upper Great Lakes across parts of Ontario and Quebec on D4/Saturday, in conjunction with a surface cyclone. A belt of relatively strong mid/upper-level flow will move eastward along the southern periphery of this trough. The extent to which the stronger flow overlaps the warm sector of the cyclone is somewhat uncertain, but a corridor of organized severe-thunderstorm potential could evolve across parts of the Midwest/OH Valley into parts of the Northeast. Farther southwest, a cold front moving across the Ozarks vicinity and central/southern Plains will tend to be displaced from stronger flow aloft. However, potentially strong instability could support some severe threat in association with the front from parts of southern KS and OK into northern AR and southern MO. ...D5/Sunday: Mid Atlantic into the Northeast... Timing of the cold front that moves across parts of the Great Lakes on Saturday becomes increasingly uncertain by Sunday. However, a slower frontal progression would allow development of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms from parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast. ...D5/Sunday: Central/northern High Plains... A mid/upper-level trough is generally forecast to move from the Northwest across the northern Rockies on Sunday. Some low-level moisture return is expected to the east of a developing surface low across WY/MT. Depending on the timing of the trough and magnitude of moisture return, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the northern/central High Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. ...D6/Monday into D7/Tuesday: Parts of the central/northern Great Plains into the Midwest... The mid/upper-level trough that moves across the northern Rockies on Sunday is forecast to continue eastward into the northern/central Great Plains on Monday, as a surface low moves northeastward across the Dakotas in conjunction with a warm front. The corridor of favorable instability may be relatively confined due to the influence of a surface ridge covering much of the eastern CONUS, but some severe-thunderstorm potential could evolve from parts of the Dakotas southward into KS/NE, and potentially farther east into MN/IA/MO. Depending on the extent of moisture return and destabilization, some severe potential could spread into a larger part of the Midwest on D7/Tuesday, as the mid/upper-level trough continues eastward. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Saturday: Central/southern Plains into the Midwest/OH Valley/Northeast... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the upper Great Lakes across parts of Ontario and Quebec on D4/Saturday, in conjunction with a surface cyclone. A belt of relatively strong mid/upper-level flow will move eastward along the southern periphery of this trough. The extent to which the stronger flow overlaps the warm sector of the cyclone is somewhat uncertain, but a corridor of organized severe-thunderstorm potential could evolve across parts of the Midwest/OH Valley into parts of the Northeast. Farther southwest, a cold front moving across the Ozarks vicinity and central/southern Plains will tend to be displaced from stronger flow aloft. However, potentially strong instability could support some severe threat in association with the front from parts of southern KS and OK into northern AR and southern MO. ...D5/Sunday: Mid Atlantic into the Northeast... Timing of the cold front that moves across parts of the Great Lakes on Saturday becomes increasingly uncertain by Sunday. However, a slower frontal progression would allow development of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms from parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast. ...D5/Sunday: Central/northern High Plains... A mid/upper-level trough is generally forecast to move from the Northwest across the northern Rockies on Sunday. Some low-level moisture return is expected to the east of a developing surface low across WY/MT. Depending on the timing of the trough and magnitude of moisture return, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the northern/central High Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. ...D6/Monday into D7/Tuesday: Parts of the central/northern Great Plains into the Midwest... The mid/upper-level trough that moves across the northern Rockies on Sunday is forecast to continue eastward into the northern/central Great Plains on Monday, as a surface low moves northeastward across the Dakotas in conjunction with a warm front. The corridor of favorable instability may be relatively confined due to the influence of a surface ridge covering much of the eastern CONUS, but some severe-thunderstorm potential could evolve from parts of the Dakotas southward into KS/NE, and potentially farther east into MN/IA/MO. Depending on the extent of moisture return and destabilization, some severe potential could spread into a larger part of the Midwest on D7/Tuesday, as the mid/upper-level trough continues eastward. Read more