Severe Storms

MD 1427 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 1427 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Areas affected...Northeastern Louisiana into Southeast Arkansas and Northern Mississippi Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 261745Z - 261945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A QLCS located near and along the Mississippi river, in addition to warm sector thunderstorms developing over much of Northern MS, are being monitored for possible weather watch issuance. The primary threat is for damaging straight-line winds. DISCUSSION...A QLCS located along and near the Mississippi River is advancing east-southeast into northern Mississippi, with another region of stronger reflectivity advancing from southern AR into northern LA. Ahead of the QLCS, warm sector thunderstorms have developed across much of MS and into western AL. This environment is characterized by MLCAPE > 2500 J/kg, but deep layer vertical shear remains weak at only 10-20 kts and mostly unidirectional. Coupled with anomalously high precipitable water values > 2 inches on the 12Z JAN sounding -- near the daily max for this time of year -- the primary severe threat appears to be from wet microbursts, in addition to damaging winds from QLCS outflow. Given current convective trends, the area is being monitored for weather watch issuance. ..Halbert/Weinman/Hart.. 06/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK... LAT...LON 33318934 32848991 32529040 32189086 32109144 32239176 32639183 33039196 33149206 33629241 33869238 34199201 34449157 34819106 35029074 35089013 35028969 34948928 34798898 34598875 34298867 34118872 33718905 33318934 Read more

WW 0465 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 465 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W TYR TO 25 SSW GGG TO 20 SSW SHV TO 30 ENE SHV TO 10 SW ELD TO 15 NE ELD. ..HALBERT..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 465 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC139-262040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE UNION LAC013-021-027-031-043-049-059-061-069-073-081-085-111-127- 262040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE CALDWELL CLAIBORNE DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RED RIVER SABINE UNION WINN TXC005-073-347-403-405-419-262040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on recent trends in model guidance and rainfall totals over the past 24 hours. MRMS QPE data indicated that wetting rainfall has recently fallen across portions of western to central NV, which should mitigate fuel receptiveness for the near term. The Elevated risk area across northeast NV has been trimmed to account for this factor. Further north into the Snake River Plain, critical fire weather conditions remain possible, but ensemble guidance continues to suggest that such conditions will be fairly transient (1-2 hours). ...Southeast New Mexico into far West Texas... Localized elevated conditions appear possible across southeast NM into the Trans Pecos region of far west TX as winds increase to around 15 mph and temperatures climb to around 100 F. Areas that have not received rainfall in recent days likely have dry grasses given the ongoing drought conditions, which may support a localized fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 06/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0225 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level shortwave trough, jet max, and associated cold front will pass over the Pacific Northwest and western/northwestern Great Basin Thursday. Although some cloud cover is expected throughout the day, pockets of clearer skies will allow for deeper mixing through the lower troposphere near the Upper Snake River Plain and portions of the northern Great Basin around the UT/NV border. This, along with a tightening surface pressure gradient, will support sustained winds around 25 to 30 mph (with localized gusts up to 40 mph possible) across the Upper Snake Region and 15 to 20 mph winds further south. Warm temperatures and dry boundary-layer conditions near a prefrontal trough axis will also yield RH in the upper to lower teens north to south respectively. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on recent trends in model guidance and rainfall totals over the past 24 hours. MRMS QPE data indicated that wetting rainfall has recently fallen across portions of western to central NV, which should mitigate fuel receptiveness for the near term. The Elevated risk area across northeast NV has been trimmed to account for this factor. Further north into the Snake River Plain, critical fire weather conditions remain possible, but ensemble guidance continues to suggest that such conditions will be fairly transient (1-2 hours). ...Southeast New Mexico into far West Texas... Localized elevated conditions appear possible across southeast NM into the Trans Pecos region of far west TX as winds increase to around 15 mph and temperatures climb to around 100 F. Areas that have not received rainfall in recent days likely have dry grasses given the ongoing drought conditions, which may support a localized fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 06/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0225 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level shortwave trough, jet max, and associated cold front will pass over the Pacific Northwest and western/northwestern Great Basin Thursday. Although some cloud cover is expected throughout the day, pockets of clearer skies will allow for deeper mixing through the lower troposphere near the Upper Snake River Plain and portions of the northern Great Basin around the UT/NV border. This, along with a tightening surface pressure gradient, will support sustained winds around 25 to 30 mph (with localized gusts up to 40 mph possible) across the Upper Snake Region and 15 to 20 mph winds further south. Warm temperatures and dry boundary-layer conditions near a prefrontal trough axis will also yield RH in the upper to lower teens north to south respectively. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on recent trends in model guidance and rainfall totals over the past 24 hours. MRMS QPE data indicated that wetting rainfall has recently fallen across portions of western to central NV, which should mitigate fuel receptiveness for the near term. The Elevated risk area across northeast NV has been trimmed to account for this factor. Further north into the Snake River Plain, critical fire weather conditions remain possible, but ensemble guidance continues to suggest that such conditions will be fairly transient (1-2 hours). ...Southeast New Mexico into far West Texas... Localized elevated conditions appear possible across southeast NM into the Trans Pecos region of far west TX as winds increase to around 15 mph and temperatures climb to around 100 F. Areas that have not received rainfall in recent days likely have dry grasses given the ongoing drought conditions, which may support a localized fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 06/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0225 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level shortwave trough, jet max, and associated cold front will pass over the Pacific Northwest and western/northwestern Great Basin Thursday. Although some cloud cover is expected throughout the day, pockets of clearer skies will allow for deeper mixing through the lower troposphere near the Upper Snake River Plain and portions of the northern Great Basin around the UT/NV border. This, along with a tightening surface pressure gradient, will support sustained winds around 25 to 30 mph (with localized gusts up to 40 mph possible) across the Upper Snake Region and 15 to 20 mph winds further south. Warm temperatures and dry boundary-layer conditions near a prefrontal trough axis will also yield RH in the upper to lower teens north to south respectively. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on recent trends in model guidance and rainfall totals over the past 24 hours. MRMS QPE data indicated that wetting rainfall has recently fallen across portions of western to central NV, which should mitigate fuel receptiveness for the near term. The Elevated risk area across northeast NV has been trimmed to account for this factor. Further north into the Snake River Plain, critical fire weather conditions remain possible, but ensemble guidance continues to suggest that such conditions will be fairly transient (1-2 hours). ...Southeast New Mexico into far West Texas... Localized elevated conditions appear possible across southeast NM into the Trans Pecos region of far west TX as winds increase to around 15 mph and temperatures climb to around 100 F. Areas that have not received rainfall in recent days likely have dry grasses given the ongoing drought conditions, which may support a localized fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 06/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0225 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level shortwave trough, jet max, and associated cold front will pass over the Pacific Northwest and western/northwestern Great Basin Thursday. Although some cloud cover is expected throughout the day, pockets of clearer skies will allow for deeper mixing through the lower troposphere near the Upper Snake River Plain and portions of the northern Great Basin around the UT/NV border. This, along with a tightening surface pressure gradient, will support sustained winds around 25 to 30 mph (with localized gusts up to 40 mph possible) across the Upper Snake Region and 15 to 20 mph winds further south. Warm temperatures and dry boundary-layer conditions near a prefrontal trough axis will also yield RH in the upper to lower teens north to south respectively. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on recent trends in model guidance and rainfall totals over the past 24 hours. MRMS QPE data indicated that wetting rainfall has recently fallen across portions of western to central NV, which should mitigate fuel receptiveness for the near term. The Elevated risk area across northeast NV has been trimmed to account for this factor. Further north into the Snake River Plain, critical fire weather conditions remain possible, but ensemble guidance continues to suggest that such conditions will be fairly transient (1-2 hours). ...Southeast New Mexico into far West Texas... Localized elevated conditions appear possible across southeast NM into the Trans Pecos region of far west TX as winds increase to around 15 mph and temperatures climb to around 100 F. Areas that have not received rainfall in recent days likely have dry grasses given the ongoing drought conditions, which may support a localized fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 06/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0225 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level shortwave trough, jet max, and associated cold front will pass over the Pacific Northwest and western/northwestern Great Basin Thursday. Although some cloud cover is expected throughout the day, pockets of clearer skies will allow for deeper mixing through the lower troposphere near the Upper Snake River Plain and portions of the northern Great Basin around the UT/NV border. This, along with a tightening surface pressure gradient, will support sustained winds around 25 to 30 mph (with localized gusts up to 40 mph possible) across the Upper Snake Region and 15 to 20 mph winds further south. Warm temperatures and dry boundary-layer conditions near a prefrontal trough axis will also yield RH in the upper to lower teens north to south respectively. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on recent trends in model guidance and rainfall totals over the past 24 hours. MRMS QPE data indicated that wetting rainfall has recently fallen across portions of western to central NV, which should mitigate fuel receptiveness for the near term. The Elevated risk area across northeast NV has been trimmed to account for this factor. Further north into the Snake River Plain, critical fire weather conditions remain possible, but ensemble guidance continues to suggest that such conditions will be fairly transient (1-2 hours). ...Southeast New Mexico into far West Texas... Localized elevated conditions appear possible across southeast NM into the Trans Pecos region of far west TX as winds increase to around 15 mph and temperatures climb to around 100 F. Areas that have not received rainfall in recent days likely have dry grasses given the ongoing drought conditions, which may support a localized fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 06/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0225 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level shortwave trough, jet max, and associated cold front will pass over the Pacific Northwest and western/northwestern Great Basin Thursday. Although some cloud cover is expected throughout the day, pockets of clearer skies will allow for deeper mixing through the lower troposphere near the Upper Snake River Plain and portions of the northern Great Basin around the UT/NV border. This, along with a tightening surface pressure gradient, will support sustained winds around 25 to 30 mph (with localized gusts up to 40 mph possible) across the Upper Snake Region and 15 to 20 mph winds further south. Warm temperatures and dry boundary-layer conditions near a prefrontal trough axis will also yield RH in the upper to lower teens north to south respectively. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on recent trends in model guidance and rainfall totals over the past 24 hours. MRMS QPE data indicated that wetting rainfall has recently fallen across portions of western to central NV, which should mitigate fuel receptiveness for the near term. The Elevated risk area across northeast NV has been trimmed to account for this factor. Further north into the Snake River Plain, critical fire weather conditions remain possible, but ensemble guidance continues to suggest that such conditions will be fairly transient (1-2 hours). ...Southeast New Mexico into far West Texas... Localized elevated conditions appear possible across southeast NM into the Trans Pecos region of far west TX as winds increase to around 15 mph and temperatures climb to around 100 F. Areas that have not received rainfall in recent days likely have dry grasses given the ongoing drought conditions, which may support a localized fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 06/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0225 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level shortwave trough, jet max, and associated cold front will pass over the Pacific Northwest and western/northwestern Great Basin Thursday. Although some cloud cover is expected throughout the day, pockets of clearer skies will allow for deeper mixing through the lower troposphere near the Upper Snake River Plain and portions of the northern Great Basin around the UT/NV border. This, along with a tightening surface pressure gradient, will support sustained winds around 25 to 30 mph (with localized gusts up to 40 mph possible) across the Upper Snake Region and 15 to 20 mph winds further south. Warm temperatures and dry boundary-layer conditions near a prefrontal trough axis will also yield RH in the upper to lower teens north to south respectively. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on recent trends in model guidance and rainfall totals over the past 24 hours. MRMS QPE data indicated that wetting rainfall has recently fallen across portions of western to central NV, which should mitigate fuel receptiveness for the near term. The Elevated risk area across northeast NV has been trimmed to account for this factor. Further north into the Snake River Plain, critical fire weather conditions remain possible, but ensemble guidance continues to suggest that such conditions will be fairly transient (1-2 hours). ...Southeast New Mexico into far West Texas... Localized elevated conditions appear possible across southeast NM into the Trans Pecos region of far west TX as winds increase to around 15 mph and temperatures climb to around 100 F. Areas that have not received rainfall in recent days likely have dry grasses given the ongoing drought conditions, which may support a localized fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 06/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0225 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level shortwave trough, jet max, and associated cold front will pass over the Pacific Northwest and western/northwestern Great Basin Thursday. Although some cloud cover is expected throughout the day, pockets of clearer skies will allow for deeper mixing through the lower troposphere near the Upper Snake River Plain and portions of the northern Great Basin around the UT/NV border. This, along with a tightening surface pressure gradient, will support sustained winds around 25 to 30 mph (with localized gusts up to 40 mph possible) across the Upper Snake Region and 15 to 20 mph winds further south. Warm temperatures and dry boundary-layer conditions near a prefrontal trough axis will also yield RH in the upper to lower teens north to south respectively. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on recent trends in model guidance and rainfall totals over the past 24 hours. MRMS QPE data indicated that wetting rainfall has recently fallen across portions of western to central NV, which should mitigate fuel receptiveness for the near term. The Elevated risk area across northeast NV has been trimmed to account for this factor. Further north into the Snake River Plain, critical fire weather conditions remain possible, but ensemble guidance continues to suggest that such conditions will be fairly transient (1-2 hours). ...Southeast New Mexico into far West Texas... Localized elevated conditions appear possible across southeast NM into the Trans Pecos region of far west TX as winds increase to around 15 mph and temperatures climb to around 100 F. Areas that have not received rainfall in recent days likely have dry grasses given the ongoing drought conditions, which may support a localized fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 06/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0225 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level shortwave trough, jet max, and associated cold front will pass over the Pacific Northwest and western/northwestern Great Basin Thursday. Although some cloud cover is expected throughout the day, pockets of clearer skies will allow for deeper mixing through the lower troposphere near the Upper Snake River Plain and portions of the northern Great Basin around the UT/NV border. This, along with a tightening surface pressure gradient, will support sustained winds around 25 to 30 mph (with localized gusts up to 40 mph possible) across the Upper Snake Region and 15 to 20 mph winds further south. Warm temperatures and dry boundary-layer conditions near a prefrontal trough axis will also yield RH in the upper to lower teens north to south respectively. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on recent trends in model guidance and rainfall totals over the past 24 hours. MRMS QPE data indicated that wetting rainfall has recently fallen across portions of western to central NV, which should mitigate fuel receptiveness for the near term. The Elevated risk area across northeast NV has been trimmed to account for this factor. Further north into the Snake River Plain, critical fire weather conditions remain possible, but ensemble guidance continues to suggest that such conditions will be fairly transient (1-2 hours). ...Southeast New Mexico into far West Texas... Localized elevated conditions appear possible across southeast NM into the Trans Pecos region of far west TX as winds increase to around 15 mph and temperatures climb to around 100 F. Areas that have not received rainfall in recent days likely have dry grasses given the ongoing drought conditions, which may support a localized fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 06/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0225 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level shortwave trough, jet max, and associated cold front will pass over the Pacific Northwest and western/northwestern Great Basin Thursday. Although some cloud cover is expected throughout the day, pockets of clearer skies will allow for deeper mixing through the lower troposphere near the Upper Snake River Plain and portions of the northern Great Basin around the UT/NV border. This, along with a tightening surface pressure gradient, will support sustained winds around 25 to 30 mph (with localized gusts up to 40 mph possible) across the Upper Snake Region and 15 to 20 mph winds further south. Warm temperatures and dry boundary-layer conditions near a prefrontal trough axis will also yield RH in the upper to lower teens north to south respectively. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on recent trends in model guidance and rainfall totals over the past 24 hours. MRMS QPE data indicated that wetting rainfall has recently fallen across portions of western to central NV, which should mitigate fuel receptiveness for the near term. The Elevated risk area across northeast NV has been trimmed to account for this factor. Further north into the Snake River Plain, critical fire weather conditions remain possible, but ensemble guidance continues to suggest that such conditions will be fairly transient (1-2 hours). ...Southeast New Mexico into far West Texas... Localized elevated conditions appear possible across southeast NM into the Trans Pecos region of far west TX as winds increase to around 15 mph and temperatures climb to around 100 F. Areas that have not received rainfall in recent days likely have dry grasses given the ongoing drought conditions, which may support a localized fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 06/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0225 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level shortwave trough, jet max, and associated cold front will pass over the Pacific Northwest and western/northwestern Great Basin Thursday. Although some cloud cover is expected throughout the day, pockets of clearer skies will allow for deeper mixing through the lower troposphere near the Upper Snake River Plain and portions of the northern Great Basin around the UT/NV border. This, along with a tightening surface pressure gradient, will support sustained winds around 25 to 30 mph (with localized gusts up to 40 mph possible) across the Upper Snake Region and 15 to 20 mph winds further south. Warm temperatures and dry boundary-layer conditions near a prefrontal trough axis will also yield RH in the upper to lower teens north to south respectively. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on recent trends in model guidance and rainfall totals over the past 24 hours. MRMS QPE data indicated that wetting rainfall has recently fallen across portions of western to central NV, which should mitigate fuel receptiveness for the near term. The Elevated risk area across northeast NV has been trimmed to account for this factor. Further north into the Snake River Plain, critical fire weather conditions remain possible, but ensemble guidance continues to suggest that such conditions will be fairly transient (1-2 hours). ...Southeast New Mexico into far West Texas... Localized elevated conditions appear possible across southeast NM into the Trans Pecos region of far west TX as winds increase to around 15 mph and temperatures climb to around 100 F. Areas that have not received rainfall in recent days likely have dry grasses given the ongoing drought conditions, which may support a localized fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 06/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0225 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level shortwave trough, jet max, and associated cold front will pass over the Pacific Northwest and western/northwestern Great Basin Thursday. Although some cloud cover is expected throughout the day, pockets of clearer skies will allow for deeper mixing through the lower troposphere near the Upper Snake River Plain and portions of the northern Great Basin around the UT/NV border. This, along with a tightening surface pressure gradient, will support sustained winds around 25 to 30 mph (with localized gusts up to 40 mph possible) across the Upper Snake Region and 15 to 20 mph winds further south. Warm temperatures and dry boundary-layer conditions near a prefrontal trough axis will also yield RH in the upper to lower teens north to south respectively. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on recent trends in model guidance and rainfall totals over the past 24 hours. MRMS QPE data indicated that wetting rainfall has recently fallen across portions of western to central NV, which should mitigate fuel receptiveness for the near term. The Elevated risk area across northeast NV has been trimmed to account for this factor. Further north into the Snake River Plain, critical fire weather conditions remain possible, but ensemble guidance continues to suggest that such conditions will be fairly transient (1-2 hours). ...Southeast New Mexico into far West Texas... Localized elevated conditions appear possible across southeast NM into the Trans Pecos region of far west TX as winds increase to around 15 mph and temperatures climb to around 100 F. Areas that have not received rainfall in recent days likely have dry grasses given the ongoing drought conditions, which may support a localized fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 06/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0225 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level shortwave trough, jet max, and associated cold front will pass over the Pacific Northwest and western/northwestern Great Basin Thursday. Although some cloud cover is expected throughout the day, pockets of clearer skies will allow for deeper mixing through the lower troposphere near the Upper Snake River Plain and portions of the northern Great Basin around the UT/NV border. This, along with a tightening surface pressure gradient, will support sustained winds around 25 to 30 mph (with localized gusts up to 40 mph possible) across the Upper Snake Region and 15 to 20 mph winds further south. Warm temperatures and dry boundary-layer conditions near a prefrontal trough axis will also yield RH in the upper to lower teens north to south respectively. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on recent trends in model guidance and rainfall totals over the past 24 hours. MRMS QPE data indicated that wetting rainfall has recently fallen across portions of western to central NV, which should mitigate fuel receptiveness for the near term. The Elevated risk area across northeast NV has been trimmed to account for this factor. Further north into the Snake River Plain, critical fire weather conditions remain possible, but ensemble guidance continues to suggest that such conditions will be fairly transient (1-2 hours). ...Southeast New Mexico into far West Texas... Localized elevated conditions appear possible across southeast NM into the Trans Pecos region of far west TX as winds increase to around 15 mph and temperatures climb to around 100 F. Areas that have not received rainfall in recent days likely have dry grasses given the ongoing drought conditions, which may support a localized fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 06/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0225 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level shortwave trough, jet max, and associated cold front will pass over the Pacific Northwest and western/northwestern Great Basin Thursday. Although some cloud cover is expected throughout the day, pockets of clearer skies will allow for deeper mixing through the lower troposphere near the Upper Snake River Plain and portions of the northern Great Basin around the UT/NV border. This, along with a tightening surface pressure gradient, will support sustained winds around 25 to 30 mph (with localized gusts up to 40 mph possible) across the Upper Snake Region and 15 to 20 mph winds further south. Warm temperatures and dry boundary-layer conditions near a prefrontal trough axis will also yield RH in the upper to lower teens north to south respectively. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on recent trends in model guidance and rainfall totals over the past 24 hours. MRMS QPE data indicated that wetting rainfall has recently fallen across portions of western to central NV, which should mitigate fuel receptiveness for the near term. The Elevated risk area across northeast NV has been trimmed to account for this factor. Further north into the Snake River Plain, critical fire weather conditions remain possible, but ensemble guidance continues to suggest that such conditions will be fairly transient (1-2 hours). ...Southeast New Mexico into far West Texas... Localized elevated conditions appear possible across southeast NM into the Trans Pecos region of far west TX as winds increase to around 15 mph and temperatures climb to around 100 F. Areas that have not received rainfall in recent days likely have dry grasses given the ongoing drought conditions, which may support a localized fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 06/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0225 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level shortwave trough, jet max, and associated cold front will pass over the Pacific Northwest and western/northwestern Great Basin Thursday. Although some cloud cover is expected throughout the day, pockets of clearer skies will allow for deeper mixing through the lower troposphere near the Upper Snake River Plain and portions of the northern Great Basin around the UT/NV border. This, along with a tightening surface pressure gradient, will support sustained winds around 25 to 30 mph (with localized gusts up to 40 mph possible) across the Upper Snake Region and 15 to 20 mph winds further south. Warm temperatures and dry boundary-layer conditions near a prefrontal trough axis will also yield RH in the upper to lower teens north to south respectively. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on recent trends in model guidance and rainfall totals over the past 24 hours. MRMS QPE data indicated that wetting rainfall has recently fallen across portions of western to central NV, which should mitigate fuel receptiveness for the near term. The Elevated risk area across northeast NV has been trimmed to account for this factor. Further north into the Snake River Plain, critical fire weather conditions remain possible, but ensemble guidance continues to suggest that such conditions will be fairly transient (1-2 hours). ...Southeast New Mexico into far West Texas... Localized elevated conditions appear possible across southeast NM into the Trans Pecos region of far west TX as winds increase to around 15 mph and temperatures climb to around 100 F. Areas that have not received rainfall in recent days likely have dry grasses given the ongoing drought conditions, which may support a localized fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 06/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0225 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level shortwave trough, jet max, and associated cold front will pass over the Pacific Northwest and western/northwestern Great Basin Thursday. Although some cloud cover is expected throughout the day, pockets of clearer skies will allow for deeper mixing through the lower troposphere near the Upper Snake River Plain and portions of the northern Great Basin around the UT/NV border. This, along with a tightening surface pressure gradient, will support sustained winds around 25 to 30 mph (with localized gusts up to 40 mph possible) across the Upper Snake Region and 15 to 20 mph winds further south. Warm temperatures and dry boundary-layer conditions near a prefrontal trough axis will also yield RH in the upper to lower teens north to south respectively. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on recent trends in model guidance and rainfall totals over the past 24 hours. MRMS QPE data indicated that wetting rainfall has recently fallen across portions of western to central NV, which should mitigate fuel receptiveness for the near term. The Elevated risk area across northeast NV has been trimmed to account for this factor. Further north into the Snake River Plain, critical fire weather conditions remain possible, but ensemble guidance continues to suggest that such conditions will be fairly transient (1-2 hours). ...Southeast New Mexico into far West Texas... Localized elevated conditions appear possible across southeast NM into the Trans Pecos region of far west TX as winds increase to around 15 mph and temperatures climb to around 100 F. Areas that have not received rainfall in recent days likely have dry grasses given the ongoing drought conditions, which may support a localized fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 06/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0225 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level shortwave trough, jet max, and associated cold front will pass over the Pacific Northwest and western/northwestern Great Basin Thursday. Although some cloud cover is expected throughout the day, pockets of clearer skies will allow for deeper mixing through the lower troposphere near the Upper Snake River Plain and portions of the northern Great Basin around the UT/NV border. This, along with a tightening surface pressure gradient, will support sustained winds around 25 to 30 mph (with localized gusts up to 40 mph possible) across the Upper Snake Region and 15 to 20 mph winds further south. Warm temperatures and dry boundary-layer conditions near a prefrontal trough axis will also yield RH in the upper to lower teens north to south respectively. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1426 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN OHIO INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE 42ND PARALLEL/NEW YORK BORDER
Mesoscale Discussion 1426 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Areas affected...parts of northern Ohio into much of central Pennsylvania and northward towards the 42nd parallel/New York border Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 261632Z - 261900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Storms will likely increase within a developing frontal zone from northern Ohio into Pennsylvania. Scattered damaging gusts may eventually materialize, DISCUSSION...Surface map shows a diffuse frontal zone over northern IN/OH and extending toward the NY/PA border where the theta-e gradient is more pronounced. Storms are forming along the deeper portion of the front over IN/OH, despite substantial clouds/limited heating. GPS sensors indicate up to 1.75" PWAT in that area which is aiding destabilization. Farther east, stronger heating is noted over far northeast OH into much of PA and NY, with a clear CU field south of the NY/PA border. This area will continue to heat in advance of increasing development upstream. Large-scale lift will continue to increase along the front as a shortwave trough approaches from the west. As such, a gradual increase in storm coverage and strength is expected mainly after 18Z, with scattered damaging gusts most likely as deep-layer mean winds increase. ..Jewell.. 06/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 40867688 40377770 40078035 40258244 40718333 41308350 41718323 42297977 42407901 42167690 41747638 40867688 Read more