Severe Storms

MD 1433 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MIDDLE AND EASTERN TENNESSEE INTO SOUTHERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 1433 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0526 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Areas affected...middle and eastern Tennessee into southern Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 262226Z - 262330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Locally strong wind gusts will be possible as a band of storms shifts northeastward across portions of Tennessee and into southern Kentucky. WW issuance may not be needed however, due to isolated nature of this risk. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows and loosely organized, arcing band of storms moving across Middle Tennessee at this time -- in line with recent HRRR runs which depicted this band with reasonable accuracy. The storms are moving northeastward through an amply unstable environment, but with the flow in the lower to middle troposphere somewhat weak (generally less than 25 kt through the mid levels), storm organization/intensity should remain generally limited. With the storms producing a 35 kt gust when moving through Nashville, per the KBNA observation, this supports the assessment of the marginal nature of the risk. Overall, it appears at this time that potential for damaging winds should remain sufficiently isolated to preclude WW consideration. ..Goss/Smith.. 06/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH... LAT...LON 34528677 35248659 36038689 36478781 36908685 37018493 36458432 35088518 34528677 Read more

WW 0466 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 466 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N ESF TO 30 ESE GWO TO 40 S MSL. ..GOSS..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 466 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC007-057-063-065-075-091-105-107-119-125-127-133-262340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIBB FAYETTE GREENE HALE LAMAR MARENGO PERRY PICKENS SUMTER TUSCALOOSA WALKER WINSTON LAC025-029-041-065-107-262340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CATAHOULA CONCORDIA FRANKLIN MADISON TENSAS MSC001-007-019-021-025-029-049-051-063-069-075-079-087-089-099- 101-103-105-121-123-149-159-163-262340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 466 SEVERE TSTM AL AR LA MS 261950Z - 270200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 466 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 250 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West Central Alabama Southeast Arkansas Northeast Louisiana Central Mississippi * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 250 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms over southeast Arkansas will sag southward into the watch area this afternoon, while other more isolated cells affect western Alabama. Hot and humid conditions will promote a risk of locally intense wind gusts with the stronger cells. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles south southwest of Monroe LA to 30 miles east northeast of Tuscaloosa AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 464...WW 465... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26035. ...Hart Read more

WW 0467 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 467 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW UNI TO 25 N PIT. ..GOSS..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...JKL...RLX...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 467 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC011-019-025-043-051-063-065-069-071-089-095-109-115-119-121- 125-127-129-131-133-153-159-165-173-175-189-193-195-197-199-203- 205-237-262340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BATH BOYD BREATHITT CARTER CLAY ELLIOTT ESTILL FLEMING FLOYD GREENUP HARLAN JACKSON JOHNSON KNOTT KNOX LAUREL LAWRENCE LEE LESLIE LETCHER MAGOFFIN MARTIN MENIFEE MONTGOMERY MORGAN OWSLEY PERRY PIKE POWELL PULASKI ROCKCASTLE ROWAN WOLFE OHC009-013-053-059-067-079-081-087-105-111-115-121-127-163-167- 262340- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0467 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 467 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW UNI TO 25 N PIT. ..GOSS..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...JKL...RLX...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 467 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC011-019-025-043-051-063-065-069-071-089-095-109-115-119-121- 125-127-129-131-133-153-159-165-173-175-189-193-195-197-199-203- 205-237-262340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BATH BOYD BREATHITT CARTER CLAY ELLIOTT ESTILL FLEMING FLOYD GREENUP HARLAN JACKSON JOHNSON KNOTT KNOX LAUREL LAWRENCE LEE LESLIE LETCHER MAGOFFIN MARTIN MENIFEE MONTGOMERY MORGAN OWSLEY PERRY PIKE POWELL PULASKI ROCKCASTLE ROWAN WOLFE OHC009-013-053-059-067-079-081-087-105-111-115-121-127-163-167- 262340- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 1432 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN COLORADO INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING
Mesoscale Discussion 1432 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Areas affected...Portions of Northern Colorado into Southeast Wyoming Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 262053Z - 262300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms have begun developing west of Cheyenne, WY, with additional development possible near the Denver metro where visible satellite shows additional cumulus development. These thunderstorms will be capable of damaging winds and hail, but overall uncertainty in storm organization, coverage, and timing means convective trends will continue to be monitored for weather watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has increased over Cheyenne and is anticipated to continue eastward into relatively meager buoyancy of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE, and 40-45 kts of deep layer shear. Further south, developing cumulus was observed west of Denver over the Rockies, with convective coverage expected to increase this evening ahead of a subtle shortwave trough moving around the north side of the upper level high. RAP proximity soundings and SPC mesoanalysis show the environment is characterized by MLLCL heights > 2500m due to a relatively hot, dry boundary layer, indicating the primary threat will be for damaging straight-line winds from thunderstorm outflow. Given the strength of the vertical shear, severe hail is also possible with more organized storms. However, there is considerable uncertainty in the overall timing, coverage, and organization of severe convection this evening, and convective trends will continue to be monitored for later weather watch issuance. ..Halbert/Weinman/Hart.. 06/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 42750435 42260416 40070405 39620430 39460485 39490541 39720580 40660571 40810568 42140575 42570576 42710524 42750435 Read more

WW 467 SEVERE TSTM KY OH PA VA WV 262030Z - 270200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 467 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 430 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Kentucky Southeast Ohio Southwest Pennsylvania Southwest Virginia West Virginia * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 430 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage this afternoon from southwest Pennsylvania into eastern Kentucky and track eastward across the watch area. The strongest cells will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles south of Jackson KY to 35 miles northeast of Pittsburgh PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 464...WW 465...WW 466... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0464 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 464 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE UNV TO 10 WSW IPT TO 30 S ELM TO 25 SW BGM TO 25 NE MSV. ..GOSS..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CLE...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 464 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC105-262340- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SULLIVAN PAC005-015-019-037-069-079-081-093-097-103-107-109-113-115-119- 127-131-262340- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BRADFORD BUTLER COLUMBIA LACKAWANNA LUZERNE LYCOMING MONTOUR NORTHUMBERLAND PIKE SCHUYLKILL SNYDER SULLIVAN SUSQUEHANNA UNION WAYNE WYOMING THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0464 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 464 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE UNV TO 10 WSW IPT TO 30 S ELM TO 25 SW BGM TO 25 NE MSV. ..GOSS..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CLE...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 464 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC105-262340- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SULLIVAN PAC005-015-019-037-069-079-081-093-097-103-107-109-113-115-119- 127-131-262340- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BRADFORD BUTLER COLUMBIA LACKAWANNA LUZERNE LYCOMING MONTOUR NORTHUMBERLAND PIKE SCHUYLKILL SNYDER SULLIVAN SUSQUEHANNA UNION WAYNE WYOMING THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 464 SEVERE TSTM NY OH PA LE 261710Z - 270100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 464 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 110 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern New York Northeast Ohio Northern Pennsylvania Lake Erie * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 110 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop along a surface boundary across northern Pennsylvania through the afternoon. The more intense storms will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and some hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west northwest of Youngstown OH to 10 miles east southeast of Monticello NY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more

MD 1428 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO
Mesoscale Discussion 1428 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Areas affected...Southwestern Idaho Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 261947Z - 262245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms have developed over Southwestern ID in an environment supportive of isolated damaging wind gusts, marginally severe hail. Given overall uncertainty in convective coverage and longevity, weather watch issuance is not expected at this time. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue to develop this afternoon across Southwestern ID, as an upper-level shortwave trough over OR and WA continues to advance towards southern British Columbia. Surface temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s F, with dewpoints in the upper 50s F, resulting in MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg beneath 35-45 kts of deep layer vertical shear. Additionally, a local maxima of 0-1 km SRH is evident near Boise on both SPC Mesoanalysis and the Boise VAD wind profile, with values between 100-140 m^2/s^2. While the overall coverage and intensity of severe weather is expected to remain marginal, storms in this environment will be capable of isolated damaging wind gusts, and hail near 1-inch. Given uncertainty in convective coverage and intensity, weather watch issuance is not expected at this time, though convective trends will continue to be monitored. ..Halbert/Weinman/Hart.. 06/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PIH...BOI...LKN... LAT...LON 43601429 43071437 42711451 42211479 42001514 41901560 41881620 41941667 42011690 42221706 42591725 42951730 43261732 43721737 44191720 44521673 44641647 44861606 44981568 44991537 44841500 44591477 44261448 43601429 Read more

MD 1431 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 467... FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1431 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Areas affected...eastern Kentucky into southwest Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 467... Valid 262035Z - 262230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 467 continues. SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity over the next several hours, with locally damaging gusts or marginal hail. DISCUSSION...A narrow plume of stronger instability extends from KY into WV and southwest PA, where storms are forming within the uncapped air mass. The main cold front and deeper ascent will eventually interact with this area as it moves in from the northwest, leading to increased storm coverage and scattered strong to severe storms. The steep low-level lapse rates along around 30-40 kt midlevel flow may support quick moving storms with strong to damaging outflow. Otherwise, marginal hail will be possible with the cellular storm mode given deep-layer shear close to 35 kt. ..Jewell.. 06/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN... LAT...LON 38168008 37768046 37238206 37408296 37818326 38498303 39368192 40308114 40648003 40477912 39467914 38168008 Read more

WW 0469 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0469 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0469 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0469 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 469 SEVERE TSTM CT NJ NY PA CW 262215Z - 270400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 469 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 615 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Connecticut Much of New Jersey Southeast New York and Long Island Eastern Pennsylvania Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday night from 615 PM until Midnight EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...A band of strong to severe thunderstorms is forecast to move east into and across much of the Watch area this evening. A risk for strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph) capable of wind damage will potentially accompany the stronger thunderstorms. An isolated threat for large hail (1 to 1.5 inches in diameter) may exist with any discrete and intense thunderstorms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles west northwest of Windsor Locks CT to 10 miles southwest of Philadelphia PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 464...WW 466...WW 467...WW 468... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25040. ...Smith Read more

MD 1430 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 465... FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WEST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1430 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Areas affected...Southeast Texas into west-central Louisiana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 465... Valid 262031Z - 262200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 465 continues. SUMMARY...A convective line moving south across East TX into West-Central LA will continue to move south and weaken as it exits the WW area. While additional convective development is ongoing ahead of the line, additional downstream WW issuance is not expected due an anticipated lack of convective organization. DISCUSSION...A bowing line of thunderstorms is exiting the watch area into West-Central LA and East TX. Radar trends indicate the overall coverage and intensity of convection is weakening, and the severe threat both ahead and behind the line will decrease this afternoon... though isolated severe wind gusts may be possible in the short term. Further south, daytime airmass thunderstorms have developed in West-Central LA, but remain unorganized with the absence of supportive deep-layer vertical shear. Given current convective trends, downstream weather watch issuance is not expected. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 06/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 31609445 31649405 31669323 31689279 31529227 31219217 30979224 30789250 30649272 30549309 30569355 30549389 30569427 30679465 30769485 31089515 31089515 31259523 31469526 31609445 Read more

MD 1429 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 1429 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Areas affected...much of eastern Pennsylvania into New Jersey and southeast New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 262002Z - 262200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...At least isolated severe gusts or marginal hail may occur this afternoon, with a greater potential for more widespread thunderstorms this evening. DISCUSSION...The air mass continues to destabilize south of an east-west oriented boundary from the PA/NY border eastward into southern New England. Visible satellite shows increase CU fields, with a few thunderstorms now extending from south-central PA into northern VA. As the main upper wave continues east, storms over northern PA along the front may organize further with damaging winds over much of northern PA possible. Isolated activity over southern PA has outflow associated with it currently, and this may support further development across the remainder of southeast PA, and eventually into NJ and southern NY. As such, the area is being monitored for further intensification or increase in coverage of the existing activity, and another watch may be considered over the next few hours south and/or east of WW 464. ..Jewell/Hart.. 06/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 41417357 40707373 40187391 39797430 39357547 39107644 39237695 39457753 39777792 40337813 40657816 40837792 41337580 41717426 41677375 41417357 Read more

WW 0468 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0468 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0468 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0468 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0468 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0468 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more