Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Monday. ...Discussion... A return to negligible severe potential across the CONUS will occur on Monday. In the West, a broad upper trough will progress with multiple embedded shortwave impulses. The primary impulse will move across parts of CA into the southern Great Basin, aiding in overall amplification of the trough by Monday night. A large plume of cool mid-level temperatures combined with modest boundary-layer heating should support pockets of scant to meager buoyancy. Low-topped convection will be most probable across the Central Valley of CA, where thunder coverage may become scattered during the afternoon. Weak deep-layer shear is expected where instability develops, north of the southern CA jetlet. While small hail and locally gusty winds are possible, organized severe storms are not anticipated. Elsewhere in the West, thunder coverage should be rather isolated. Low-probability thunder with isolated low-topped convection is apparent along the immediate NC coast on Monday afternoon. While a post-frontal environment, scant buoyancy may develop as a sharp gradient in mid-level cooling approaches at peak boundary-layer heating. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Monday. ...Discussion... A return to negligible severe potential across the CONUS will occur on Monday. In the West, a broad upper trough will progress with multiple embedded shortwave impulses. The primary impulse will move across parts of CA into the southern Great Basin, aiding in overall amplification of the trough by Monday night. A large plume of cool mid-level temperatures combined with modest boundary-layer heating should support pockets of scant to meager buoyancy. Low-topped convection will be most probable across the Central Valley of CA, where thunder coverage may become scattered during the afternoon. Weak deep-layer shear is expected where instability develops, north of the southern CA jetlet. While small hail and locally gusty winds are possible, organized severe storms are not anticipated. Elsewhere in the West, thunder coverage should be rather isolated. Low-probability thunder with isolated low-topped convection is apparent along the immediate NC coast on Monday afternoon. While a post-frontal environment, scant buoyancy may develop as a sharp gradient in mid-level cooling approaches at peak boundary-layer heating. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Monday. ...Discussion... A return to negligible severe potential across the CONUS will occur on Monday. In the West, a broad upper trough will progress with multiple embedded shortwave impulses. The primary impulse will move across parts of CA into the southern Great Basin, aiding in overall amplification of the trough by Monday night. A large plume of cool mid-level temperatures combined with modest boundary-layer heating should support pockets of scant to meager buoyancy. Low-topped convection will be most probable across the Central Valley of CA, where thunder coverage may become scattered during the afternoon. Weak deep-layer shear is expected where instability develops, north of the southern CA jetlet. While small hail and locally gusty winds are possible, organized severe storms are not anticipated. Elsewhere in the West, thunder coverage should be rather isolated. Low-probability thunder with isolated low-topped convection is apparent along the immediate NC coast on Monday afternoon. While a post-frontal environment, scant buoyancy may develop as a sharp gradient in mid-level cooling approaches at peak boundary-layer heating. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Monday. ...Discussion... A return to negligible severe potential across the CONUS will occur on Monday. In the West, a broad upper trough will progress with multiple embedded shortwave impulses. The primary impulse will move across parts of CA into the southern Great Basin, aiding in overall amplification of the trough by Monday night. A large plume of cool mid-level temperatures combined with modest boundary-layer heating should support pockets of scant to meager buoyancy. Low-topped convection will be most probable across the Central Valley of CA, where thunder coverage may become scattered during the afternoon. Weak deep-layer shear is expected where instability develops, north of the southern CA jetlet. While small hail and locally gusty winds are possible, organized severe storms are not anticipated. Elsewhere in the West, thunder coverage should be rather isolated. Low-probability thunder with isolated low-topped convection is apparent along the immediate NC coast on Monday afternoon. While a post-frontal environment, scant buoyancy may develop as a sharp gradient in mid-level cooling approaches at peak boundary-layer heating. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Monday. ...Discussion... A return to negligible severe potential across the CONUS will occur on Monday. In the West, a broad upper trough will progress with multiple embedded shortwave impulses. The primary impulse will move across parts of CA into the southern Great Basin, aiding in overall amplification of the trough by Monday night. A large plume of cool mid-level temperatures combined with modest boundary-layer heating should support pockets of scant to meager buoyancy. Low-topped convection will be most probable across the Central Valley of CA, where thunder coverage may become scattered during the afternoon. Weak deep-layer shear is expected where instability develops, north of the southern CA jetlet. While small hail and locally gusty winds are possible, organized severe storms are not anticipated. Elsewhere in the West, thunder coverage should be rather isolated. Low-probability thunder with isolated low-topped convection is apparent along the immediate NC coast on Monday afternoon. While a post-frontal environment, scant buoyancy may develop as a sharp gradient in mid-level cooling approaches at peak boundary-layer heating. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Monday. ...Discussion... A return to negligible severe potential across the CONUS will occur on Monday. In the West, a broad upper trough will progress with multiple embedded shortwave impulses. The primary impulse will move across parts of CA into the southern Great Basin, aiding in overall amplification of the trough by Monday night. A large plume of cool mid-level temperatures combined with modest boundary-layer heating should support pockets of scant to meager buoyancy. Low-topped convection will be most probable across the Central Valley of CA, where thunder coverage may become scattered during the afternoon. Weak deep-layer shear is expected where instability develops, north of the southern CA jetlet. While small hail and locally gusty winds are possible, organized severe storms are not anticipated. Elsewhere in the West, thunder coverage should be rather isolated. Low-probability thunder with isolated low-topped convection is apparent along the immediate NC coast on Monday afternoon. While a post-frontal environment, scant buoyancy may develop as a sharp gradient in mid-level cooling approaches at peak boundary-layer heating. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Monday. ...Discussion... A return to negligible severe potential across the CONUS will occur on Monday. In the West, a broad upper trough will progress with multiple embedded shortwave impulses. The primary impulse will move across parts of CA into the southern Great Basin, aiding in overall amplification of the trough by Monday night. A large plume of cool mid-level temperatures combined with modest boundary-layer heating should support pockets of scant to meager buoyancy. Low-topped convection will be most probable across the Central Valley of CA, where thunder coverage may become scattered during the afternoon. Weak deep-layer shear is expected where instability develops, north of the southern CA jetlet. While small hail and locally gusty winds are possible, organized severe storms are not anticipated. Elsewhere in the West, thunder coverage should be rather isolated. Low-probability thunder with isolated low-topped convection is apparent along the immediate NC coast on Monday afternoon. While a post-frontal environment, scant buoyancy may develop as a sharp gradient in mid-level cooling approaches at peak boundary-layer heating. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Monday. ...Discussion... A return to negligible severe potential across the CONUS will occur on Monday. In the West, a broad upper trough will progress with multiple embedded shortwave impulses. The primary impulse will move across parts of CA into the southern Great Basin, aiding in overall amplification of the trough by Monday night. A large plume of cool mid-level temperatures combined with modest boundary-layer heating should support pockets of scant to meager buoyancy. Low-topped convection will be most probable across the Central Valley of CA, where thunder coverage may become scattered during the afternoon. Weak deep-layer shear is expected where instability develops, north of the southern CA jetlet. While small hail and locally gusty winds are possible, organized severe storms are not anticipated. Elsewhere in the West, thunder coverage should be rather isolated. Low-probability thunder with isolated low-topped convection is apparent along the immediate NC coast on Monday afternoon. While a post-frontal environment, scant buoyancy may develop as a sharp gradient in mid-level cooling approaches at peak boundary-layer heating. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Monday. ...Discussion... A return to negligible severe potential across the CONUS will occur on Monday. In the West, a broad upper trough will progress with multiple embedded shortwave impulses. The primary impulse will move across parts of CA into the southern Great Basin, aiding in overall amplification of the trough by Monday night. A large plume of cool mid-level temperatures combined with modest boundary-layer heating should support pockets of scant to meager buoyancy. Low-topped convection will be most probable across the Central Valley of CA, where thunder coverage may become scattered during the afternoon. Weak deep-layer shear is expected where instability develops, north of the southern CA jetlet. While small hail and locally gusty winds are possible, organized severe storms are not anticipated. Elsewhere in the West, thunder coverage should be rather isolated. Low-probability thunder with isolated low-topped convection is apparent along the immediate NC coast on Monday afternoon. While a post-frontal environment, scant buoyancy may develop as a sharp gradient in mid-level cooling approaches at peak boundary-layer heating. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Monday. ...Discussion... A return to negligible severe potential across the CONUS will occur on Monday. In the West, a broad upper trough will progress with multiple embedded shortwave impulses. The primary impulse will move across parts of CA into the southern Great Basin, aiding in overall amplification of the trough by Monday night. A large plume of cool mid-level temperatures combined with modest boundary-layer heating should support pockets of scant to meager buoyancy. Low-topped convection will be most probable across the Central Valley of CA, where thunder coverage may become scattered during the afternoon. Weak deep-layer shear is expected where instability develops, north of the southern CA jetlet. While small hail and locally gusty winds are possible, organized severe storms are not anticipated. Elsewhere in the West, thunder coverage should be rather isolated. Low-probability thunder with isolated low-topped convection is apparent along the immediate NC coast on Monday afternoon. While a post-frontal environment, scant buoyancy may develop as a sharp gradient in mid-level cooling approaches at peak boundary-layer heating. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Monday. ...Discussion... A return to negligible severe potential across the CONUS will occur on Monday. In the West, a broad upper trough will progress with multiple embedded shortwave impulses. The primary impulse will move across parts of CA into the southern Great Basin, aiding in overall amplification of the trough by Monday night. A large plume of cool mid-level temperatures combined with modest boundary-layer heating should support pockets of scant to meager buoyancy. Low-topped convection will be most probable across the Central Valley of CA, where thunder coverage may become scattered during the afternoon. Weak deep-layer shear is expected where instability develops, north of the southern CA jetlet. While small hail and locally gusty winds are possible, organized severe storms are not anticipated. Elsewhere in the West, thunder coverage should be rather isolated. Low-probability thunder with isolated low-topped convection is apparent along the immediate NC coast on Monday afternoon. While a post-frontal environment, scant buoyancy may develop as a sharp gradient in mid-level cooling approaches at peak boundary-layer heating. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Monday. ...Discussion... A return to negligible severe potential across the CONUS will occur on Monday. In the West, a broad upper trough will progress with multiple embedded shortwave impulses. The primary impulse will move across parts of CA into the southern Great Basin, aiding in overall amplification of the trough by Monday night. A large plume of cool mid-level temperatures combined with modest boundary-layer heating should support pockets of scant to meager buoyancy. Low-topped convection will be most probable across the Central Valley of CA, where thunder coverage may become scattered during the afternoon. Weak deep-layer shear is expected where instability develops, north of the southern CA jetlet. While small hail and locally gusty winds are possible, organized severe storms are not anticipated. Elsewhere in the West, thunder coverage should be rather isolated. Low-probability thunder with isolated low-topped convection is apparent along the immediate NC coast on Monday afternoon. While a post-frontal environment, scant buoyancy may develop as a sharp gradient in mid-level cooling approaches at peak boundary-layer heating. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Monday. ...Discussion... A return to negligible severe potential across the CONUS will occur on Monday. In the West, a broad upper trough will progress with multiple embedded shortwave impulses. The primary impulse will move across parts of CA into the southern Great Basin, aiding in overall amplification of the trough by Monday night. A large plume of cool mid-level temperatures combined with modest boundary-layer heating should support pockets of scant to meager buoyancy. Low-topped convection will be most probable across the Central Valley of CA, where thunder coverage may become scattered during the afternoon. Weak deep-layer shear is expected where instability develops, north of the southern CA jetlet. While small hail and locally gusty winds are possible, organized severe storms are not anticipated. Elsewhere in the West, thunder coverage should be rather isolated. Low-probability thunder with isolated low-topped convection is apparent along the immediate NC coast on Monday afternoon. While a post-frontal environment, scant buoyancy may develop as a sharp gradient in mid-level cooling approaches at peak boundary-layer heating. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Monday. ...Discussion... A return to negligible severe potential across the CONUS will occur on Monday. In the West, a broad upper trough will progress with multiple embedded shortwave impulses. The primary impulse will move across parts of CA into the southern Great Basin, aiding in overall amplification of the trough by Monday night. A large plume of cool mid-level temperatures combined with modest boundary-layer heating should support pockets of scant to meager buoyancy. Low-topped convection will be most probable across the Central Valley of CA, where thunder coverage may become scattered during the afternoon. Weak deep-layer shear is expected where instability develops, north of the southern CA jetlet. While small hail and locally gusty winds are possible, organized severe storms are not anticipated. Elsewhere in the West, thunder coverage should be rather isolated. Low-probability thunder with isolated low-topped convection is apparent along the immediate NC coast on Monday afternoon. While a post-frontal environment, scant buoyancy may develop as a sharp gradient in mid-level cooling approaches at peak boundary-layer heating. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Monday. ...Discussion... A return to negligible severe potential across the CONUS will occur on Monday. In the West, a broad upper trough will progress with multiple embedded shortwave impulses. The primary impulse will move across parts of CA into the southern Great Basin, aiding in overall amplification of the trough by Monday night. A large plume of cool mid-level temperatures combined with modest boundary-layer heating should support pockets of scant to meager buoyancy. Low-topped convection will be most probable across the Central Valley of CA, where thunder coverage may become scattered during the afternoon. Weak deep-layer shear is expected where instability develops, north of the southern CA jetlet. While small hail and locally gusty winds are possible, organized severe storms are not anticipated. Elsewhere in the West, thunder coverage should be rather isolated. Low-probability thunder with isolated low-topped convection is apparent along the immediate NC coast on Monday afternoon. While a post-frontal environment, scant buoyancy may develop as a sharp gradient in mid-level cooling approaches at peak boundary-layer heating. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Monday. ...Discussion... A return to negligible severe potential across the CONUS will occur on Monday. In the West, a broad upper trough will progress with multiple embedded shortwave impulses. The primary impulse will move across parts of CA into the southern Great Basin, aiding in overall amplification of the trough by Monday night. A large plume of cool mid-level temperatures combined with modest boundary-layer heating should support pockets of scant to meager buoyancy. Low-topped convection will be most probable across the Central Valley of CA, where thunder coverage may become scattered during the afternoon. Weak deep-layer shear is expected where instability develops, north of the southern CA jetlet. While small hail and locally gusty winds are possible, organized severe storms are not anticipated. Elsewhere in the West, thunder coverage should be rather isolated. Low-probability thunder with isolated low-topped convection is apparent along the immediate NC coast on Monday afternoon. While a post-frontal environment, scant buoyancy may develop as a sharp gradient in mid-level cooling approaches at peak boundary-layer heating. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Monday. ...Discussion... A return to negligible severe potential across the CONUS will occur on Monday. In the West, a broad upper trough will progress with multiple embedded shortwave impulses. The primary impulse will move across parts of CA into the southern Great Basin, aiding in overall amplification of the trough by Monday night. A large plume of cool mid-level temperatures combined with modest boundary-layer heating should support pockets of scant to meager buoyancy. Low-topped convection will be most probable across the Central Valley of CA, where thunder coverage may become scattered during the afternoon. Weak deep-layer shear is expected where instability develops, north of the southern CA jetlet. While small hail and locally gusty winds are possible, organized severe storms are not anticipated. Elsewhere in the West, thunder coverage should be rather isolated. Low-probability thunder with isolated low-topped convection is apparent along the immediate NC coast on Monday afternoon. While a post-frontal environment, scant buoyancy may develop as a sharp gradient in mid-level cooling approaches at peak boundary-layer heating. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Monday. ...Discussion... A return to negligible severe potential across the CONUS will occur on Monday. In the West, a broad upper trough will progress with multiple embedded shortwave impulses. The primary impulse will move across parts of CA into the southern Great Basin, aiding in overall amplification of the trough by Monday night. A large plume of cool mid-level temperatures combined with modest boundary-layer heating should support pockets of scant to meager buoyancy. Low-topped convection will be most probable across the Central Valley of CA, where thunder coverage may become scattered during the afternoon. Weak deep-layer shear is expected where instability develops, north of the southern CA jetlet. While small hail and locally gusty winds are possible, organized severe storms are not anticipated. Elsewhere in the West, thunder coverage should be rather isolated. Low-probability thunder with isolated low-topped convection is apparent along the immediate NC coast on Monday afternoon. While a post-frontal environment, scant buoyancy may develop as a sharp gradient in mid-level cooling approaches at peak boundary-layer heating. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z The Elevated area across the north-central High Plains was expanded south and eastward across Kansas with this update in alignment with recent trends in guidance. HREF combined probabilities indicate high likelihood of Elevated fire weather conditions across this region. ERCs in this area are around the 80-90th percentile with below normal rainfall over the last 30 days across the region. This supports southward expansion of the Elevated into this region. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts of the southern High Plains and central High Plains this afternoon. Surface high pressure is expected to build across the eastern Plains this afternoon as an upper trough and attendant surface low translates east towards the East Coast. Across the central/northern Rockies, strengthening westerly flow at the apex of an upper ridge will induce lee troughing and a westerly flow regime across parts of the High Plains. This synoptic regime will favor dry/windy conditions across parts of NM/TX and WY/NE where fuels remain dry after minimal rainfall in recent days. ...Southern High Plains... West/southwest surface winds are expected to increase to around 15 mph on the southwesterly periphery of the surface ridge over the Plains. Although boundary-layer mixing is expected to be somewhat shallow (only to around 1 km AGL), 20-30 mph winds near the top of the boundary layer will manifest as occasional gusts at the surface by late afternoon. An influx of drier air from AZ and NM will support RH reductions into the teens, and fuels across the region remain receptive based on fuel guidance and recent fire activity. As such, a swath of elevated fire weather conditions appears likely this afternoon. ...North-central High Plains... Early signs of lee troughing are already noted in 05 UTC surface observations across the northern High Plains. This trend will continue as zonal flow across the northern Rockies strengthens over the next 24 hours. Dry conditions are expected on either side of the lee trough due to a combination of downslope flow off the Rockies and initial dry return flow over the Plains with RH reductions into the upper teens and low 20s likely. Westerly winds behind the lee trough should increase to 15-20 mph by late afternoon, which will support a broad area of elevated fire weather conditions. Localized critical conditions are possible - especially across the NE Panhandle where the best overlap of strong downslope winds and sub-20% RH is greatest. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z The Elevated area across the north-central High Plains was expanded south and eastward across Kansas with this update in alignment with recent trends in guidance. HREF combined probabilities indicate high likelihood of Elevated fire weather conditions across this region. ERCs in this area are around the 80-90th percentile with below normal rainfall over the last 30 days across the region. This supports southward expansion of the Elevated into this region. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts of the southern High Plains and central High Plains this afternoon. Surface high pressure is expected to build across the eastern Plains this afternoon as an upper trough and attendant surface low translates east towards the East Coast. Across the central/northern Rockies, strengthening westerly flow at the apex of an upper ridge will induce lee troughing and a westerly flow regime across parts of the High Plains. This synoptic regime will favor dry/windy conditions across parts of NM/TX and WY/NE where fuels remain dry after minimal rainfall in recent days. ...Southern High Plains... West/southwest surface winds are expected to increase to around 15 mph on the southwesterly periphery of the surface ridge over the Plains. Although boundary-layer mixing is expected to be somewhat shallow (only to around 1 km AGL), 20-30 mph winds near the top of the boundary layer will manifest as occasional gusts at the surface by late afternoon. An influx of drier air from AZ and NM will support RH reductions into the teens, and fuels across the region remain receptive based on fuel guidance and recent fire activity. As such, a swath of elevated fire weather conditions appears likely this afternoon. ...North-central High Plains... Early signs of lee troughing are already noted in 05 UTC surface observations across the northern High Plains. This trend will continue as zonal flow across the northern Rockies strengthens over the next 24 hours. Dry conditions are expected on either side of the lee trough due to a combination of downslope flow off the Rockies and initial dry return flow over the Plains with RH reductions into the upper teens and low 20s likely. Westerly winds behind the lee trough should increase to 15-20 mph by late afternoon, which will support a broad area of elevated fire weather conditions. Localized critical conditions are possible - especially across the NE Panhandle where the best overlap of strong downslope winds and sub-20% RH is greatest. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more