Severe Storms

WW 0050 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 50 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE AAF TO 35 SSE MCN TO 40 S AGS. ..THOMPSON..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...TAE...JAX...FFC...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 50 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC065-073-079-123-129-161240- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JEFFERSON LEON MADISON TAYLOR WAKULLA GAC003-017-019-027-069-071-075-091-107-155-161-173-175-185-209- 271-275-277-279-283-287-309-321-161240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATKINSON BEN HILL BERRIEN BROOKS COFFEE COLQUITT COOK DODGE EMANUEL IRWIN JEFF DAVIS LANIER LAURENS LOWNDES MONTGOMERY TELFAIR THOMAS TIFT TOOMBS TREUTLEN TURNER WHEELER WORTH Read more

WW 0050 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 50 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S AAF TO 15 SSW ABY TO 35 S MCN TO 40 SSW AGS TO 45 N AGS. ..THOMPSON..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...TAE...JAX...FFC...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 50 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC037-039-065-073-077-079-123-129-161140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRANKLIN GADSDEN JEFFERSON LEON LIBERTY MADISON TAYLOR WAKULLA GAC003-017-019-023-027-033-069-071-075-081-091-093-107-131-155- 161-173-175-185-205-209-235-245-271-275-277-279-283-287-309-315- 321-161140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATKINSON BEN HILL BERRIEN BLECKLEY BROOKS BURKE COFFEE COLQUITT COOK CRISP DODGE DOOLY EMANUEL GRADY IRWIN JEFF DAVIS LANIER LAURENS LOWNDES MITCHELL MONTGOMERY PULASKI RICHMOND TELFAIR Read more

MD 0221 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0221 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0430 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Areas affected...Southeast Georgia to south central North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 160930Z - 161030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The potential for occasional wind damage and a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations will spread east of the current watches. A new tornado watch will likely be needed by 10z from southeast Georgia across South Carolina into south central North Carolina. DISCUSSION...A persistent QLCS continues to move eastward toward east central GA and will reach the edge of tornado watch #50 close to 10z. Echo depth and flash rates have decreased some over the past hour, which could be a reflection of the storms getting too far ahead of the destabilization, and weakening forcing for ascent with time. Still, a 70 kt low-level jet and surface temperatures near 70 with low-mid 60s dewpoints suggest that some rejuvenation of the convection will be possible. Given the strong vertical shear profiles, any persistent storms would pose some threat for damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes. The MD area is being considered for a new tornado watch by about 10z. ..Thompson/Smith.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... LAT...LON 33838146 34598094 35248030 35437979 35367929 35107884 34707884 33837965 33208030 31878147 32058210 32528204 33838146 Read more

MD 0220 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 50... FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA TO THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0220 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Areas affected...East central Georgia to the eastern Florida Panhandle Concerning...Tornado Watch 50... Valid 160843Z - 161015Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 50 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for occasional wind damage and a couple of tornadoes will persist through the morning. DISCUSSION...A forced, pre-frontal convective band is moving from central toward east central GA, with the band largely oriented parallel to the deep-layer flow/shear vectors. The QLCS in central GA is moving along the edge of the near-surface destabilization, and close to the 70 kt low-level jet core. Despite the weak near-surface buoyancy, occasional damaging gusts and a tornado or two could occur with embedded circulations, especially more north-south oriented segments. Stronger buoyancy is located farther to the southwest, where 68-70 F dewpoints have spread inland to extreme southwest GA and the eastern FL Panhandle. The more cellular storm mode in this area suggests some potential for occasional supercell structures, though low-level shear will slowly weaken through the morning as the low-level jet develops northeastward toward SC. ..Thompson.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 32928311 33548277 33778217 33568193 32888218 32198252 31598306 31018363 30378419 29948467 29758515 30348515 31708435 32928311 Read more

WW 0051 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0051 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0051 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0051 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0051 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0051 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0051 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0051 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... A mid-level trough is forecast to move northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Ahead of the trough, a narrow axis of moisture and weak instability is forecast from the western Great Lakes into the lower Ohio Valley. This corridor of low-level moisture will be the favored location for convective development Wednesday afternoon. Surface dewpoints along the moist axis are only expected to be in the 40s to lower 50s F. In spite of this, the exit region of the mid-level jet is forecast to overspread the region during the mid to late afternoon. This will provide strong lift and deep-layer shear, sufficient for an isolated severe threat. Any severe threat should remain marginal. On Thursday, the trough is forecast move eastward through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front advances to near the Atlantic Seaboard, from the eastern Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated severe storms will again be possible along or ahead of the front during the mid to late afternoon, but any threat is expected to be marginal. On Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the central states, where isolated convection will be possible. However, moisture return is expected to be confined to the Texas Coastal Plain, which will be a severe threat limiting factor. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, the trough is forecast to de-amplify and move into the northeastern U.S. as a broad low-amplitude cyclonic flow pattern develops over much of the U.S. Moisture return is expected to take place over the western Gulf Coast on Saturday and across the southern Plains on Sunday. Some models suggest that a trough will take shape in the Great Plains on Sunday, with a cluster of storms forming ahead of the system Sunday afternoon. These storms would develop along the northern edge of the stronger instability from Oklahoma into Arkansas, expanding Sunday evening across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. If this scenario where to verify, then a severe threat would be possible with the stronger storms within the MCS. However, at this extended range, the magnitude and spatial extent of any severe threat remains considerably uncertain. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... A mid-level trough is forecast to move northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Ahead of the trough, a narrow axis of moisture and weak instability is forecast from the western Great Lakes into the lower Ohio Valley. This corridor of low-level moisture will be the favored location for convective development Wednesday afternoon. Surface dewpoints along the moist axis are only expected to be in the 40s to lower 50s F. In spite of this, the exit region of the mid-level jet is forecast to overspread the region during the mid to late afternoon. This will provide strong lift and deep-layer shear, sufficient for an isolated severe threat. Any severe threat should remain marginal. On Thursday, the trough is forecast move eastward through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front advances to near the Atlantic Seaboard, from the eastern Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated severe storms will again be possible along or ahead of the front during the mid to late afternoon, but any threat is expected to be marginal. On Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the central states, where isolated convection will be possible. However, moisture return is expected to be confined to the Texas Coastal Plain, which will be a severe threat limiting factor. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, the trough is forecast to de-amplify and move into the northeastern U.S. as a broad low-amplitude cyclonic flow pattern develops over much of the U.S. Moisture return is expected to take place over the western Gulf Coast on Saturday and across the southern Plains on Sunday. Some models suggest that a trough will take shape in the Great Plains on Sunday, with a cluster of storms forming ahead of the system Sunday afternoon. These storms would develop along the northern edge of the stronger instability from Oklahoma into Arkansas, expanding Sunday evening across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. If this scenario where to verify, then a severe threat would be possible with the stronger storms within the MCS. However, at this extended range, the magnitude and spatial extent of any severe threat remains considerably uncertain. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... A mid-level trough is forecast to move northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Ahead of the trough, a narrow axis of moisture and weak instability is forecast from the western Great Lakes into the lower Ohio Valley. This corridor of low-level moisture will be the favored location for convective development Wednesday afternoon. Surface dewpoints along the moist axis are only expected to be in the 40s to lower 50s F. In spite of this, the exit region of the mid-level jet is forecast to overspread the region during the mid to late afternoon. This will provide strong lift and deep-layer shear, sufficient for an isolated severe threat. Any severe threat should remain marginal. On Thursday, the trough is forecast move eastward through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front advances to near the Atlantic Seaboard, from the eastern Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated severe storms will again be possible along or ahead of the front during the mid to late afternoon, but any threat is expected to be marginal. On Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the central states, where isolated convection will be possible. However, moisture return is expected to be confined to the Texas Coastal Plain, which will be a severe threat limiting factor. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, the trough is forecast to de-amplify and move into the northeastern U.S. as a broad low-amplitude cyclonic flow pattern develops over much of the U.S. Moisture return is expected to take place over the western Gulf Coast on Saturday and across the southern Plains on Sunday. Some models suggest that a trough will take shape in the Great Plains on Sunday, with a cluster of storms forming ahead of the system Sunday afternoon. These storms would develop along the northern edge of the stronger instability from Oklahoma into Arkansas, expanding Sunday evening across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. If this scenario where to verify, then a severe threat would be possible with the stronger storms within the MCS. However, at this extended range, the magnitude and spatial extent of any severe threat remains considerably uncertain. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... A mid-level trough is forecast to move northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Ahead of the trough, a narrow axis of moisture and weak instability is forecast from the western Great Lakes into the lower Ohio Valley. This corridor of low-level moisture will be the favored location for convective development Wednesday afternoon. Surface dewpoints along the moist axis are only expected to be in the 40s to lower 50s F. In spite of this, the exit region of the mid-level jet is forecast to overspread the region during the mid to late afternoon. This will provide strong lift and deep-layer shear, sufficient for an isolated severe threat. Any severe threat should remain marginal. On Thursday, the trough is forecast move eastward through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front advances to near the Atlantic Seaboard, from the eastern Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated severe storms will again be possible along or ahead of the front during the mid to late afternoon, but any threat is expected to be marginal. On Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the central states, where isolated convection will be possible. However, moisture return is expected to be confined to the Texas Coastal Plain, which will be a severe threat limiting factor. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, the trough is forecast to de-amplify and move into the northeastern U.S. as a broad low-amplitude cyclonic flow pattern develops over much of the U.S. Moisture return is expected to take place over the western Gulf Coast on Saturday and across the southern Plains on Sunday. Some models suggest that a trough will take shape in the Great Plains on Sunday, with a cluster of storms forming ahead of the system Sunday afternoon. These storms would develop along the northern edge of the stronger instability from Oklahoma into Arkansas, expanding Sunday evening across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. If this scenario where to verify, then a severe threat would be possible with the stronger storms within the MCS. However, at this extended range, the magnitude and spatial extent of any severe threat remains considerably uncertain. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... A mid-level trough is forecast to move northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Ahead of the trough, a narrow axis of moisture and weak instability is forecast from the western Great Lakes into the lower Ohio Valley. This corridor of low-level moisture will be the favored location for convective development Wednesday afternoon. Surface dewpoints along the moist axis are only expected to be in the 40s to lower 50s F. In spite of this, the exit region of the mid-level jet is forecast to overspread the region during the mid to late afternoon. This will provide strong lift and deep-layer shear, sufficient for an isolated severe threat. Any severe threat should remain marginal. On Thursday, the trough is forecast move eastward through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front advances to near the Atlantic Seaboard, from the eastern Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated severe storms will again be possible along or ahead of the front during the mid to late afternoon, but any threat is expected to be marginal. On Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the central states, where isolated convection will be possible. However, moisture return is expected to be confined to the Texas Coastal Plain, which will be a severe threat limiting factor. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, the trough is forecast to de-amplify and move into the northeastern U.S. as a broad low-amplitude cyclonic flow pattern develops over much of the U.S. Moisture return is expected to take place over the western Gulf Coast on Saturday and across the southern Plains on Sunday. Some models suggest that a trough will take shape in the Great Plains on Sunday, with a cluster of storms forming ahead of the system Sunday afternoon. These storms would develop along the northern edge of the stronger instability from Oklahoma into Arkansas, expanding Sunday evening across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. If this scenario where to verify, then a severe threat would be possible with the stronger storms within the MCS. However, at this extended range, the magnitude and spatial extent of any severe threat remains considerably uncertain. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... A mid-level trough is forecast to move northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Ahead of the trough, a narrow axis of moisture and weak instability is forecast from the western Great Lakes into the lower Ohio Valley. This corridor of low-level moisture will be the favored location for convective development Wednesday afternoon. Surface dewpoints along the moist axis are only expected to be in the 40s to lower 50s F. In spite of this, the exit region of the mid-level jet is forecast to overspread the region during the mid to late afternoon. This will provide strong lift and deep-layer shear, sufficient for an isolated severe threat. Any severe threat should remain marginal. On Thursday, the trough is forecast move eastward through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front advances to near the Atlantic Seaboard, from the eastern Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated severe storms will again be possible along or ahead of the front during the mid to late afternoon, but any threat is expected to be marginal. On Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the central states, where isolated convection will be possible. However, moisture return is expected to be confined to the Texas Coastal Plain, which will be a severe threat limiting factor. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, the trough is forecast to de-amplify and move into the northeastern U.S. as a broad low-amplitude cyclonic flow pattern develops over much of the U.S. Moisture return is expected to take place over the western Gulf Coast on Saturday and across the southern Plains on Sunday. Some models suggest that a trough will take shape in the Great Plains on Sunday, with a cluster of storms forming ahead of the system Sunday afternoon. These storms would develop along the northern edge of the stronger instability from Oklahoma into Arkansas, expanding Sunday evening across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. If this scenario where to verify, then a severe threat would be possible with the stronger storms within the MCS. However, at this extended range, the magnitude and spatial extent of any severe threat remains considerably uncertain. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... A mid-level trough is forecast to move northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Ahead of the trough, a narrow axis of moisture and weak instability is forecast from the western Great Lakes into the lower Ohio Valley. This corridor of low-level moisture will be the favored location for convective development Wednesday afternoon. Surface dewpoints along the moist axis are only expected to be in the 40s to lower 50s F. In spite of this, the exit region of the mid-level jet is forecast to overspread the region during the mid to late afternoon. This will provide strong lift and deep-layer shear, sufficient for an isolated severe threat. Any severe threat should remain marginal. On Thursday, the trough is forecast move eastward through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front advances to near the Atlantic Seaboard, from the eastern Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated severe storms will again be possible along or ahead of the front during the mid to late afternoon, but any threat is expected to be marginal. On Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the central states, where isolated convection will be possible. However, moisture return is expected to be confined to the Texas Coastal Plain, which will be a severe threat limiting factor. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, the trough is forecast to de-amplify and move into the northeastern U.S. as a broad low-amplitude cyclonic flow pattern develops over much of the U.S. Moisture return is expected to take place over the western Gulf Coast on Saturday and across the southern Plains on Sunday. Some models suggest that a trough will take shape in the Great Plains on Sunday, with a cluster of storms forming ahead of the system Sunday afternoon. These storms would develop along the northern edge of the stronger instability from Oklahoma into Arkansas, expanding Sunday evening across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. If this scenario where to verify, then a severe threat would be possible with the stronger storms within the MCS. However, at this extended range, the magnitude and spatial extent of any severe threat remains considerably uncertain. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... A mid-level trough is forecast to move northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Ahead of the trough, a narrow axis of moisture and weak instability is forecast from the western Great Lakes into the lower Ohio Valley. This corridor of low-level moisture will be the favored location for convective development Wednesday afternoon. Surface dewpoints along the moist axis are only expected to be in the 40s to lower 50s F. In spite of this, the exit region of the mid-level jet is forecast to overspread the region during the mid to late afternoon. This will provide strong lift and deep-layer shear, sufficient for an isolated severe threat. Any severe threat should remain marginal. On Thursday, the trough is forecast move eastward through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front advances to near the Atlantic Seaboard, from the eastern Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated severe storms will again be possible along or ahead of the front during the mid to late afternoon, but any threat is expected to be marginal. On Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the central states, where isolated convection will be possible. However, moisture return is expected to be confined to the Texas Coastal Plain, which will be a severe threat limiting factor. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, the trough is forecast to de-amplify and move into the northeastern U.S. as a broad low-amplitude cyclonic flow pattern develops over much of the U.S. Moisture return is expected to take place over the western Gulf Coast on Saturday and across the southern Plains on Sunday. Some models suggest that a trough will take shape in the Great Plains on Sunday, with a cluster of storms forming ahead of the system Sunday afternoon. These storms would develop along the northern edge of the stronger instability from Oklahoma into Arkansas, expanding Sunday evening across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. If this scenario where to verify, then a severe threat would be possible with the stronger storms within the MCS. However, at this extended range, the magnitude and spatial extent of any severe threat remains considerably uncertain. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... A mid-level trough is forecast to move northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Ahead of the trough, a narrow axis of moisture and weak instability is forecast from the western Great Lakes into the lower Ohio Valley. This corridor of low-level moisture will be the favored location for convective development Wednesday afternoon. Surface dewpoints along the moist axis are only expected to be in the 40s to lower 50s F. In spite of this, the exit region of the mid-level jet is forecast to overspread the region during the mid to late afternoon. This will provide strong lift and deep-layer shear, sufficient for an isolated severe threat. Any severe threat should remain marginal. On Thursday, the trough is forecast move eastward through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front advances to near the Atlantic Seaboard, from the eastern Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated severe storms will again be possible along or ahead of the front during the mid to late afternoon, but any threat is expected to be marginal. On Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the central states, where isolated convection will be possible. However, moisture return is expected to be confined to the Texas Coastal Plain, which will be a severe threat limiting factor. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, the trough is forecast to de-amplify and move into the northeastern U.S. as a broad low-amplitude cyclonic flow pattern develops over much of the U.S. Moisture return is expected to take place over the western Gulf Coast on Saturday and across the southern Plains on Sunday. Some models suggest that a trough will take shape in the Great Plains on Sunday, with a cluster of storms forming ahead of the system Sunday afternoon. These storms would develop along the northern edge of the stronger instability from Oklahoma into Arkansas, expanding Sunday evening across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. If this scenario where to verify, then a severe threat would be possible with the stronger storms within the MCS. However, at this extended range, the magnitude and spatial extent of any severe threat remains considerably uncertain. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... A mid-level trough is forecast to move northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Ahead of the trough, a narrow axis of moisture and weak instability is forecast from the western Great Lakes into the lower Ohio Valley. This corridor of low-level moisture will be the favored location for convective development Wednesday afternoon. Surface dewpoints along the moist axis are only expected to be in the 40s to lower 50s F. In spite of this, the exit region of the mid-level jet is forecast to overspread the region during the mid to late afternoon. This will provide strong lift and deep-layer shear, sufficient for an isolated severe threat. Any severe threat should remain marginal. On Thursday, the trough is forecast move eastward through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front advances to near the Atlantic Seaboard, from the eastern Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated severe storms will again be possible along or ahead of the front during the mid to late afternoon, but any threat is expected to be marginal. On Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the central states, where isolated convection will be possible. However, moisture return is expected to be confined to the Texas Coastal Plain, which will be a severe threat limiting factor. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, the trough is forecast to de-amplify and move into the northeastern U.S. as a broad low-amplitude cyclonic flow pattern develops over much of the U.S. Moisture return is expected to take place over the western Gulf Coast on Saturday and across the southern Plains on Sunday. Some models suggest that a trough will take shape in the Great Plains on Sunday, with a cluster of storms forming ahead of the system Sunday afternoon. These storms would develop along the northern edge of the stronger instability from Oklahoma into Arkansas, expanding Sunday evening across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. If this scenario where to verify, then a severe threat would be possible with the stronger storms within the MCS. However, at this extended range, the magnitude and spatial extent of any severe threat remains considerably uncertain. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... A mid-level trough is forecast to move northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Ahead of the trough, a narrow axis of moisture and weak instability is forecast from the western Great Lakes into the lower Ohio Valley. This corridor of low-level moisture will be the favored location for convective development Wednesday afternoon. Surface dewpoints along the moist axis are only expected to be in the 40s to lower 50s F. In spite of this, the exit region of the mid-level jet is forecast to overspread the region during the mid to late afternoon. This will provide strong lift and deep-layer shear, sufficient for an isolated severe threat. Any severe threat should remain marginal. On Thursday, the trough is forecast move eastward through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front advances to near the Atlantic Seaboard, from the eastern Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated severe storms will again be possible along or ahead of the front during the mid to late afternoon, but any threat is expected to be marginal. On Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the central states, where isolated convection will be possible. However, moisture return is expected to be confined to the Texas Coastal Plain, which will be a severe threat limiting factor. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, the trough is forecast to de-amplify and move into the northeastern U.S. as a broad low-amplitude cyclonic flow pattern develops over much of the U.S. Moisture return is expected to take place over the western Gulf Coast on Saturday and across the southern Plains on Sunday. Some models suggest that a trough will take shape in the Great Plains on Sunday, with a cluster of storms forming ahead of the system Sunday afternoon. These storms would develop along the northern edge of the stronger instability from Oklahoma into Arkansas, expanding Sunday evening across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. If this scenario where to verify, then a severe threat would be possible with the stronger storms within the MCS. However, at this extended range, the magnitude and spatial extent of any severe threat remains considerably uncertain. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... A mid-level trough is forecast to move northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Ahead of the trough, a narrow axis of moisture and weak instability is forecast from the western Great Lakes into the lower Ohio Valley. This corridor of low-level moisture will be the favored location for convective development Wednesday afternoon. Surface dewpoints along the moist axis are only expected to be in the 40s to lower 50s F. In spite of this, the exit region of the mid-level jet is forecast to overspread the region during the mid to late afternoon. This will provide strong lift and deep-layer shear, sufficient for an isolated severe threat. Any severe threat should remain marginal. On Thursday, the trough is forecast move eastward through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front advances to near the Atlantic Seaboard, from the eastern Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated severe storms will again be possible along or ahead of the front during the mid to late afternoon, but any threat is expected to be marginal. On Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the central states, where isolated convection will be possible. However, moisture return is expected to be confined to the Texas Coastal Plain, which will be a severe threat limiting factor. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, the trough is forecast to de-amplify and move into the northeastern U.S. as a broad low-amplitude cyclonic flow pattern develops over much of the U.S. Moisture return is expected to take place over the western Gulf Coast on Saturday and across the southern Plains on Sunday. Some models suggest that a trough will take shape in the Great Plains on Sunday, with a cluster of storms forming ahead of the system Sunday afternoon. These storms would develop along the northern edge of the stronger instability from Oklahoma into Arkansas, expanding Sunday evening across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. If this scenario where to verify, then a severe threat would be possible with the stronger storms within the MCS. However, at this extended range, the magnitude and spatial extent of any severe threat remains considerably uncertain. Read more