Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS... Minor adjustments were made to expand Critical probabilities further north into Kansas and eastern Colorado in alignment with recent guidance. Otherwise, the current forecast remains unchanged. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0748 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will return to the southern and central Plains on Monday as a dry return flow regime becomes established across the central CONUS. A surface low is forecast to deepen along the northern High Plains before migrating into the northern Plains through the day Monday. As this occurs, a strong low-level mass response will induce breezy southerly winds from TX into the central Plains. A recent frontal passage into the northern Gulf has degraded moisture quality along the TX coast with persistent offshore flow expected for the next 24 hours. Consequently, moisture return into the Plains on Monday is expected to be limited and will allow for RH reductions into the teens to mid 20s as temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s. A surface high shifting into the Southeast by Monday afternoon will support strong pressure gradient winds across NM and western TX/OK with a high probability for a large swath of sustained winds over 20 mph. Fire weather concerns are expected to be greatest across this region given recent fire activity and expected RH reductions into the low teens and single digits. Further north into the central High Plains, closer proximity to the surface trough/low will likely result in sustained winds closer to 15-20 mph. While weaker, these will still be sufficient to pose a widespread fire weather risk given receptive fine fuels over the region. Both the Critical and Elevated fire weather risk areas were expanded east compared to the previous forecast to take into account the typical bias in guidance to under-mix the boundary layer in these regimes (which typically results in drier/windier conditions than otherwise expected). Additional uncertainties include the east/northeast extent of the fire weather risk given recent precipitation across parts of the MO River Valley. Fuel trends will be monitored and further expansions may be needed depending on fuel trends. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS... Minor adjustments were made to expand Critical probabilities further north into Kansas and eastern Colorado in alignment with recent guidance. Otherwise, the current forecast remains unchanged. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0748 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will return to the southern and central Plains on Monday as a dry return flow regime becomes established across the central CONUS. A surface low is forecast to deepen along the northern High Plains before migrating into the northern Plains through the day Monday. As this occurs, a strong low-level mass response will induce breezy southerly winds from TX into the central Plains. A recent frontal passage into the northern Gulf has degraded moisture quality along the TX coast with persistent offshore flow expected for the next 24 hours. Consequently, moisture return into the Plains on Monday is expected to be limited and will allow for RH reductions into the teens to mid 20s as temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s. A surface high shifting into the Southeast by Monday afternoon will support strong pressure gradient winds across NM and western TX/OK with a high probability for a large swath of sustained winds over 20 mph. Fire weather concerns are expected to be greatest across this region given recent fire activity and expected RH reductions into the low teens and single digits. Further north into the central High Plains, closer proximity to the surface trough/low will likely result in sustained winds closer to 15-20 mph. While weaker, these will still be sufficient to pose a widespread fire weather risk given receptive fine fuels over the region. Both the Critical and Elevated fire weather risk areas were expanded east compared to the previous forecast to take into account the typical bias in guidance to under-mix the boundary layer in these regimes (which typically results in drier/windier conditions than otherwise expected). Additional uncertainties include the east/northeast extent of the fire weather risk given recent precipitation across parts of the MO River Valley. Fuel trends will be monitored and further expansions may be needed depending on fuel trends. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS... Minor adjustments were made to expand Critical probabilities further north into Kansas and eastern Colorado in alignment with recent guidance. Otherwise, the current forecast remains unchanged. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0748 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will return to the southern and central Plains on Monday as a dry return flow regime becomes established across the central CONUS. A surface low is forecast to deepen along the northern High Plains before migrating into the northern Plains through the day Monday. As this occurs, a strong low-level mass response will induce breezy southerly winds from TX into the central Plains. A recent frontal passage into the northern Gulf has degraded moisture quality along the TX coast with persistent offshore flow expected for the next 24 hours. Consequently, moisture return into the Plains on Monday is expected to be limited and will allow for RH reductions into the teens to mid 20s as temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s. A surface high shifting into the Southeast by Monday afternoon will support strong pressure gradient winds across NM and western TX/OK with a high probability for a large swath of sustained winds over 20 mph. Fire weather concerns are expected to be greatest across this region given recent fire activity and expected RH reductions into the low teens and single digits. Further north into the central High Plains, closer proximity to the surface trough/low will likely result in sustained winds closer to 15-20 mph. While weaker, these will still be sufficient to pose a widespread fire weather risk given receptive fine fuels over the region. Both the Critical and Elevated fire weather risk areas were expanded east compared to the previous forecast to take into account the typical bias in guidance to under-mix the boundary layer in these regimes (which typically results in drier/windier conditions than otherwise expected). Additional uncertainties include the east/northeast extent of the fire weather risk given recent precipitation across parts of the MO River Valley. Fuel trends will be monitored and further expansions may be needed depending on fuel trends. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST NE AND PARTS OF IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from southeast Nebraska across the southern two-thirds of Iowa. ...Southeast NE and IA... A broad upper trough over the West will progress east as the primary embedded shortwave impulse ejects across the Southwest towards the central Great Plains. This will induce pronounced cyclogenesis in the lee of the southern Rockies, tracking into the Lower MO Valley by 12Z Wednesday. Low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will be tempered by a substantial continental air mass intrusion previously, characterized by 20s surface dew points currently along the TX Coast. It appears unlikely that sufficient buoyancy will exist to overcome the stout elevated mixed layer in the warm-limited moist sector ahead of the deep cyclone. However, elevated convection should develop Tuesday night across the Mid-MO Valley as large-scale ascent becomes quite strong. While elevated MUCAPE will be weak at most, effective bulk shear should be adequate for small to isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST NE AND PARTS OF IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from southeast Nebraska across the southern two-thirds of Iowa. ...Southeast NE and IA... A broad upper trough over the West will progress east as the primary embedded shortwave impulse ejects across the Southwest towards the central Great Plains. This will induce pronounced cyclogenesis in the lee of the southern Rockies, tracking into the Lower MO Valley by 12Z Wednesday. Low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will be tempered by a substantial continental air mass intrusion previously, characterized by 20s surface dew points currently along the TX Coast. It appears unlikely that sufficient buoyancy will exist to overcome the stout elevated mixed layer in the warm-limited moist sector ahead of the deep cyclone. However, elevated convection should develop Tuesday night across the Mid-MO Valley as large-scale ascent becomes quite strong. While elevated MUCAPE will be weak at most, effective bulk shear should be adequate for small to isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST NE AND PARTS OF IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from southeast Nebraska across the southern two-thirds of Iowa. ...Southeast NE and IA... A broad upper trough over the West will progress east as the primary embedded shortwave impulse ejects across the Southwest towards the central Great Plains. This will induce pronounced cyclogenesis in the lee of the southern Rockies, tracking into the Lower MO Valley by 12Z Wednesday. Low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will be tempered by a substantial continental air mass intrusion previously, characterized by 20s surface dew points currently along the TX Coast. It appears unlikely that sufficient buoyancy will exist to overcome the stout elevated mixed layer in the warm-limited moist sector ahead of the deep cyclone. However, elevated convection should develop Tuesday night across the Mid-MO Valley as large-scale ascent becomes quite strong. While elevated MUCAPE will be weak at most, effective bulk shear should be adequate for small to isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST NE AND PARTS OF IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from southeast Nebraska across the southern two-thirds of Iowa. ...Southeast NE and IA... A broad upper trough over the West will progress east as the primary embedded shortwave impulse ejects across the Southwest towards the central Great Plains. This will induce pronounced cyclogenesis in the lee of the southern Rockies, tracking into the Lower MO Valley by 12Z Wednesday. Low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will be tempered by a substantial continental air mass intrusion previously, characterized by 20s surface dew points currently along the TX Coast. It appears unlikely that sufficient buoyancy will exist to overcome the stout elevated mixed layer in the warm-limited moist sector ahead of the deep cyclone. However, elevated convection should develop Tuesday night across the Mid-MO Valley as large-scale ascent becomes quite strong. While elevated MUCAPE will be weak at most, effective bulk shear should be adequate for small to isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST NE AND PARTS OF IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from southeast Nebraska across the southern two-thirds of Iowa. ...Southeast NE and IA... A broad upper trough over the West will progress east as the primary embedded shortwave impulse ejects across the Southwest towards the central Great Plains. This will induce pronounced cyclogenesis in the lee of the southern Rockies, tracking into the Lower MO Valley by 12Z Wednesday. Low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will be tempered by a substantial continental air mass intrusion previously, characterized by 20s surface dew points currently along the TX Coast. It appears unlikely that sufficient buoyancy will exist to overcome the stout elevated mixed layer in the warm-limited moist sector ahead of the deep cyclone. However, elevated convection should develop Tuesday night across the Mid-MO Valley as large-scale ascent becomes quite strong. While elevated MUCAPE will be weak at most, effective bulk shear should be adequate for small to isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST NE AND PARTS OF IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from southeast Nebraska across the southern two-thirds of Iowa. ...Southeast NE and IA... A broad upper trough over the West will progress east as the primary embedded shortwave impulse ejects across the Southwest towards the central Great Plains. This will induce pronounced cyclogenesis in the lee of the southern Rockies, tracking into the Lower MO Valley by 12Z Wednesday. Low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will be tempered by a substantial continental air mass intrusion previously, characterized by 20s surface dew points currently along the TX Coast. It appears unlikely that sufficient buoyancy will exist to overcome the stout elevated mixed layer in the warm-limited moist sector ahead of the deep cyclone. However, elevated convection should develop Tuesday night across the Mid-MO Valley as large-scale ascent becomes quite strong. While elevated MUCAPE will be weak at most, effective bulk shear should be adequate for small to isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST NE AND PARTS OF IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from southeast Nebraska across the southern two-thirds of Iowa. ...Southeast NE and IA... A broad upper trough over the West will progress east as the primary embedded shortwave impulse ejects across the Southwest towards the central Great Plains. This will induce pronounced cyclogenesis in the lee of the southern Rockies, tracking into the Lower MO Valley by 12Z Wednesday. Low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will be tempered by a substantial continental air mass intrusion previously, characterized by 20s surface dew points currently along the TX Coast. It appears unlikely that sufficient buoyancy will exist to overcome the stout elevated mixed layer in the warm-limited moist sector ahead of the deep cyclone. However, elevated convection should develop Tuesday night across the Mid-MO Valley as large-scale ascent becomes quite strong. While elevated MUCAPE will be weak at most, effective bulk shear should be adequate for small to isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST NE AND PARTS OF IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from southeast Nebraska across the southern two-thirds of Iowa. ...Southeast NE and IA... A broad upper trough over the West will progress east as the primary embedded shortwave impulse ejects across the Southwest towards the central Great Plains. This will induce pronounced cyclogenesis in the lee of the southern Rockies, tracking into the Lower MO Valley by 12Z Wednesday. Low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will be tempered by a substantial continental air mass intrusion previously, characterized by 20s surface dew points currently along the TX Coast. It appears unlikely that sufficient buoyancy will exist to overcome the stout elevated mixed layer in the warm-limited moist sector ahead of the deep cyclone. However, elevated convection should develop Tuesday night across the Mid-MO Valley as large-scale ascent becomes quite strong. While elevated MUCAPE will be weak at most, effective bulk shear should be adequate for small to isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST NE AND PARTS OF IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from southeast Nebraska across the southern two-thirds of Iowa. ...Southeast NE and IA... A broad upper trough over the West will progress east as the primary embedded shortwave impulse ejects across the Southwest towards the central Great Plains. This will induce pronounced cyclogenesis in the lee of the southern Rockies, tracking into the Lower MO Valley by 12Z Wednesday. Low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will be tempered by a substantial continental air mass intrusion previously, characterized by 20s surface dew points currently along the TX Coast. It appears unlikely that sufficient buoyancy will exist to overcome the stout elevated mixed layer in the warm-limited moist sector ahead of the deep cyclone. However, elevated convection should develop Tuesday night across the Mid-MO Valley as large-scale ascent becomes quite strong. While elevated MUCAPE will be weak at most, effective bulk shear should be adequate for small to isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST NE AND PARTS OF IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from southeast Nebraska across the southern two-thirds of Iowa. ...Southeast NE and IA... A broad upper trough over the West will progress east as the primary embedded shortwave impulse ejects across the Southwest towards the central Great Plains. This will induce pronounced cyclogenesis in the lee of the southern Rockies, tracking into the Lower MO Valley by 12Z Wednesday. Low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will be tempered by a substantial continental air mass intrusion previously, characterized by 20s surface dew points currently along the TX Coast. It appears unlikely that sufficient buoyancy will exist to overcome the stout elevated mixed layer in the warm-limited moist sector ahead of the deep cyclone. However, elevated convection should develop Tuesday night across the Mid-MO Valley as large-scale ascent becomes quite strong. While elevated MUCAPE will be weak at most, effective bulk shear should be adequate for small to isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST NE AND PARTS OF IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from southeast Nebraska across the southern two-thirds of Iowa. ...Southeast NE and IA... A broad upper trough over the West will progress east as the primary embedded shortwave impulse ejects across the Southwest towards the central Great Plains. This will induce pronounced cyclogenesis in the lee of the southern Rockies, tracking into the Lower MO Valley by 12Z Wednesday. Low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will be tempered by a substantial continental air mass intrusion previously, characterized by 20s surface dew points currently along the TX Coast. It appears unlikely that sufficient buoyancy will exist to overcome the stout elevated mixed layer in the warm-limited moist sector ahead of the deep cyclone. However, elevated convection should develop Tuesday night across the Mid-MO Valley as large-scale ascent becomes quite strong. While elevated MUCAPE will be weak at most, effective bulk shear should be adequate for small to isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST NE AND PARTS OF IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from southeast Nebraska across the southern two-thirds of Iowa. ...Southeast NE and IA... A broad upper trough over the West will progress east as the primary embedded shortwave impulse ejects across the Southwest towards the central Great Plains. This will induce pronounced cyclogenesis in the lee of the southern Rockies, tracking into the Lower MO Valley by 12Z Wednesday. Low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will be tempered by a substantial continental air mass intrusion previously, characterized by 20s surface dew points currently along the TX Coast. It appears unlikely that sufficient buoyancy will exist to overcome the stout elevated mixed layer in the warm-limited moist sector ahead of the deep cyclone. However, elevated convection should develop Tuesday night across the Mid-MO Valley as large-scale ascent becomes quite strong. While elevated MUCAPE will be weak at most, effective bulk shear should be adequate for small to isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST NE AND PARTS OF IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from southeast Nebraska across the southern two-thirds of Iowa. ...Southeast NE and IA... A broad upper trough over the West will progress east as the primary embedded shortwave impulse ejects across the Southwest towards the central Great Plains. This will induce pronounced cyclogenesis in the lee of the southern Rockies, tracking into the Lower MO Valley by 12Z Wednesday. Low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will be tempered by a substantial continental air mass intrusion previously, characterized by 20s surface dew points currently along the TX Coast. It appears unlikely that sufficient buoyancy will exist to overcome the stout elevated mixed layer in the warm-limited moist sector ahead of the deep cyclone. However, elevated convection should develop Tuesday night across the Mid-MO Valley as large-scale ascent becomes quite strong. While elevated MUCAPE will be weak at most, effective bulk shear should be adequate for small to isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST NE AND PARTS OF IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from southeast Nebraska across the southern two-thirds of Iowa. ...Southeast NE and IA... A broad upper trough over the West will progress east as the primary embedded shortwave impulse ejects across the Southwest towards the central Great Plains. This will induce pronounced cyclogenesis in the lee of the southern Rockies, tracking into the Lower MO Valley by 12Z Wednesday. Low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will be tempered by a substantial continental air mass intrusion previously, characterized by 20s surface dew points currently along the TX Coast. It appears unlikely that sufficient buoyancy will exist to overcome the stout elevated mixed layer in the warm-limited moist sector ahead of the deep cyclone. However, elevated convection should develop Tuesday night across the Mid-MO Valley as large-scale ascent becomes quite strong. While elevated MUCAPE will be weak at most, effective bulk shear should be adequate for small to isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST NE AND PARTS OF IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from southeast Nebraska across the southern two-thirds of Iowa. ...Southeast NE and IA... A broad upper trough over the West will progress east as the primary embedded shortwave impulse ejects across the Southwest towards the central Great Plains. This will induce pronounced cyclogenesis in the lee of the southern Rockies, tracking into the Lower MO Valley by 12Z Wednesday. Low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will be tempered by a substantial continental air mass intrusion previously, characterized by 20s surface dew points currently along the TX Coast. It appears unlikely that sufficient buoyancy will exist to overcome the stout elevated mixed layer in the warm-limited moist sector ahead of the deep cyclone. However, elevated convection should develop Tuesday night across the Mid-MO Valley as large-scale ascent becomes quite strong. While elevated MUCAPE will be weak at most, effective bulk shear should be adequate for small to isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST NE AND PARTS OF IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from southeast Nebraska across the southern two-thirds of Iowa. ...Southeast NE and IA... A broad upper trough over the West will progress east as the primary embedded shortwave impulse ejects across the Southwest towards the central Great Plains. This will induce pronounced cyclogenesis in the lee of the southern Rockies, tracking into the Lower MO Valley by 12Z Wednesday. Low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will be tempered by a substantial continental air mass intrusion previously, characterized by 20s surface dew points currently along the TX Coast. It appears unlikely that sufficient buoyancy will exist to overcome the stout elevated mixed layer in the warm-limited moist sector ahead of the deep cyclone. However, elevated convection should develop Tuesday night across the Mid-MO Valley as large-scale ascent becomes quite strong. While elevated MUCAPE will be weak at most, effective bulk shear should be adequate for small to isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST NE AND PARTS OF IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from southeast Nebraska across the southern two-thirds of Iowa. ...Southeast NE and IA... A broad upper trough over the West will progress east as the primary embedded shortwave impulse ejects across the Southwest towards the central Great Plains. This will induce pronounced cyclogenesis in the lee of the southern Rockies, tracking into the Lower MO Valley by 12Z Wednesday. Low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will be tempered by a substantial continental air mass intrusion previously, characterized by 20s surface dew points currently along the TX Coast. It appears unlikely that sufficient buoyancy will exist to overcome the stout elevated mixed layer in the warm-limited moist sector ahead of the deep cyclone. However, elevated convection should develop Tuesday night across the Mid-MO Valley as large-scale ascent becomes quite strong. While elevated MUCAPE will be weak at most, effective bulk shear should be adequate for small to isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more