Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind and a few tornadoes remain possible through the remainder of this afternoon and evening across parts of upstate New York, the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast. ...20z Update... The main forecast changes for 20z have been to reduce probabilities behind the squall line ongoing over PA and western NY state, and expand slightly ahead of the more persistent bowing segments over northern NY. Lingering cloud cover and modest surface moisture greatly limit available buoyancy ahead of the line. With only a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE, decreasing with eastward extent, a gradual loss in intensity is expected over the next several hours over northeastern PA and NY. Still, very strong gradient winds and flow aloft will support some potential for convective-enhanced damaging gusts through this evening. 300-400 m2/s2 of 0-3km SRH may also support the threat for a couple of brief QLCS tornadoes while the line maintains intensity. Probabilities have also be trimmed farther south over parts of the western Carolinas, GA and northern FL as the main convective band and cold front have shifted east. Some isolated thunderstorm redevelopment remains possible over parts of the Blue Ridge Mountains of western VA and into the central Carolinas where diurnal heating has steepened low-level lapse rates immediately ahead of the synoptic cold front. While confidence in severe potential is modest given meager buoyancy, the steep lapse rates could support damaging gusts or marginal hail, should more sustained convection redevelop as indicated by some CAMS. These storms may eventually shift eastward into the mid Atlantic late this afternoon and into the early evening, where low-level synoptic flow remains fairly strong. Will maintain the Slight Risk for damaging gusts and isolated tornado potential over parts of the Mid Atlantic into tonight. ..Lyons.. 03/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025/ ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... A highly amplified upper trough over the MS Valley this morning will advance eastward over much of the eastern CONUS today. An embedded 100+ kt southwesterly mid-level jet and associated large-scale ascent will overspread the upper OH Valley and western Mid-Atlantic regions through this evening. The primary surface low over eastern Lower MI will develop northeastward into Ontario and Quebec through the day, while an attendant cold front sweeps eastward across the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic through the period. Recent visible satellite imagery shows some clearing ahead of the synoptic cold front in eastern OH and western PA. Although low-level moisture will be somewhat limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, cool mid-level temperatures will overspread the narrow warm sector this afternoon. This, combined with daytime heating, will support a narrow zone of up to 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE just ahead of the cold front and/or pre-frontal trough, which should be sufficient for surface-based convection. Bands of low-topped thunderstorms have developed both along and just ahead of the cold front. This activity will move quickly east-northeastward across WV, western/central PA, and parts of NY through the day. With strong low/mid-level flow already in place per area VWPs, this line should pose a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds, with peak gusts perhaps reaching up to 60-70 mph. There will also be rather strong low-level shear in place, which may support some threat for a few tornadoes embedded within the line, especially if low-level flow can remain backed more to a southeasterly component. The northeastward extent of this severe wind and tornado risk into the Mid-Atlantic and NY remains unclear, as persistent cloud cover will inhibit daytime heating to some extent. Still, most guidance shows one or more lines persisting through the afternoon and evening while posing some wind threat. Severe probabilities have been adjusted northeastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic to account for latest observational and guidance trends. ...Southeast/Carolinas... The southern portion of the highly amplified upper trough will continue eastward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast today, as an intense southerly low-level jet shifts east across north FL and the Carolinas through this evening. Ongoing pre-frontal convection has mostly weakened late this morning/early afternoon, with a couple of stronger cells persisting over southeast GA and north FL where greater low-level moisture and instability is present. Adequately enlarged low-level hodographs within a gradually destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL, with weaker instability over the coastal Carolinas) should continue to support organized convection through the afternoon and evening, before activity eventually moves offshore. Broken line segments (mainly Carolinas) and some supercells (mainly southeast GA and north FL) will pose a threat for scattered damaging winds (peak gusts up to 55-70 mph) and a few tornadoes. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind and a few tornadoes remain possible through the remainder of this afternoon and evening across parts of upstate New York, the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast. ...20z Update... The main forecast changes for 20z have been to reduce probabilities behind the squall line ongoing over PA and western NY state, and expand slightly ahead of the more persistent bowing segments over northern NY. Lingering cloud cover and modest surface moisture greatly limit available buoyancy ahead of the line. With only a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE, decreasing with eastward extent, a gradual loss in intensity is expected over the next several hours over northeastern PA and NY. Still, very strong gradient winds and flow aloft will support some potential for convective-enhanced damaging gusts through this evening. 300-400 m2/s2 of 0-3km SRH may also support the threat for a couple of brief QLCS tornadoes while the line maintains intensity. Probabilities have also be trimmed farther south over parts of the western Carolinas, GA and northern FL as the main convective band and cold front have shifted east. Some isolated thunderstorm redevelopment remains possible over parts of the Blue Ridge Mountains of western VA and into the central Carolinas where diurnal heating has steepened low-level lapse rates immediately ahead of the synoptic cold front. While confidence in severe potential is modest given meager buoyancy, the steep lapse rates could support damaging gusts or marginal hail, should more sustained convection redevelop as indicated by some CAMS. These storms may eventually shift eastward into the mid Atlantic late this afternoon and into the early evening, where low-level synoptic flow remains fairly strong. Will maintain the Slight Risk for damaging gusts and isolated tornado potential over parts of the Mid Atlantic into tonight. ..Lyons.. 03/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025/ ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... A highly amplified upper trough over the MS Valley this morning will advance eastward over much of the eastern CONUS today. An embedded 100+ kt southwesterly mid-level jet and associated large-scale ascent will overspread the upper OH Valley and western Mid-Atlantic regions through this evening. The primary surface low over eastern Lower MI will develop northeastward into Ontario and Quebec through the day, while an attendant cold front sweeps eastward across the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic through the period. Recent visible satellite imagery shows some clearing ahead of the synoptic cold front in eastern OH and western PA. Although low-level moisture will be somewhat limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, cool mid-level temperatures will overspread the narrow warm sector this afternoon. This, combined with daytime heating, will support a narrow zone of up to 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE just ahead of the cold front and/or pre-frontal trough, which should be sufficient for surface-based convection. Bands of low-topped thunderstorms have developed both along and just ahead of the cold front. This activity will move quickly east-northeastward across WV, western/central PA, and parts of NY through the day. With strong low/mid-level flow already in place per area VWPs, this line should pose a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds, with peak gusts perhaps reaching up to 60-70 mph. There will also be rather strong low-level shear in place, which may support some threat for a few tornadoes embedded within the line, especially if low-level flow can remain backed more to a southeasterly component. The northeastward extent of this severe wind and tornado risk into the Mid-Atlantic and NY remains unclear, as persistent cloud cover will inhibit daytime heating to some extent. Still, most guidance shows one or more lines persisting through the afternoon and evening while posing some wind threat. Severe probabilities have been adjusted northeastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic to account for latest observational and guidance trends. ...Southeast/Carolinas... The southern portion of the highly amplified upper trough will continue eastward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast today, as an intense southerly low-level jet shifts east across north FL and the Carolinas through this evening. Ongoing pre-frontal convection has mostly weakened late this morning/early afternoon, with a couple of stronger cells persisting over southeast GA and north FL where greater low-level moisture and instability is present. Adequately enlarged low-level hodographs within a gradually destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL, with weaker instability over the coastal Carolinas) should continue to support organized convection through the afternoon and evening, before activity eventually moves offshore. Broken line segments (mainly Carolinas) and some supercells (mainly southeast GA and north FL) will pose a threat for scattered damaging winds (peak gusts up to 55-70 mph) and a few tornadoes. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind and a few tornadoes remain possible through the remainder of this afternoon and evening across parts of upstate New York, the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast. ...20z Update... The main forecast changes for 20z have been to reduce probabilities behind the squall line ongoing over PA and western NY state, and expand slightly ahead of the more persistent bowing segments over northern NY. Lingering cloud cover and modest surface moisture greatly limit available buoyancy ahead of the line. With only a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE, decreasing with eastward extent, a gradual loss in intensity is expected over the next several hours over northeastern PA and NY. Still, very strong gradient winds and flow aloft will support some potential for convective-enhanced damaging gusts through this evening. 300-400 m2/s2 of 0-3km SRH may also support the threat for a couple of brief QLCS tornadoes while the line maintains intensity. Probabilities have also be trimmed farther south over parts of the western Carolinas, GA and northern FL as the main convective band and cold front have shifted east. Some isolated thunderstorm redevelopment remains possible over parts of the Blue Ridge Mountains of western VA and into the central Carolinas where diurnal heating has steepened low-level lapse rates immediately ahead of the synoptic cold front. While confidence in severe potential is modest given meager buoyancy, the steep lapse rates could support damaging gusts or marginal hail, should more sustained convection redevelop as indicated by some CAMS. These storms may eventually shift eastward into the mid Atlantic late this afternoon and into the early evening, where low-level synoptic flow remains fairly strong. Will maintain the Slight Risk for damaging gusts and isolated tornado potential over parts of the Mid Atlantic into tonight. ..Lyons.. 03/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025/ ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... A highly amplified upper trough over the MS Valley this morning will advance eastward over much of the eastern CONUS today. An embedded 100+ kt southwesterly mid-level jet and associated large-scale ascent will overspread the upper OH Valley and western Mid-Atlantic regions through this evening. The primary surface low over eastern Lower MI will develop northeastward into Ontario and Quebec through the day, while an attendant cold front sweeps eastward across the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic through the period. Recent visible satellite imagery shows some clearing ahead of the synoptic cold front in eastern OH and western PA. Although low-level moisture will be somewhat limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, cool mid-level temperatures will overspread the narrow warm sector this afternoon. This, combined with daytime heating, will support a narrow zone of up to 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE just ahead of the cold front and/or pre-frontal trough, which should be sufficient for surface-based convection. Bands of low-topped thunderstorms have developed both along and just ahead of the cold front. This activity will move quickly east-northeastward across WV, western/central PA, and parts of NY through the day. With strong low/mid-level flow already in place per area VWPs, this line should pose a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds, with peak gusts perhaps reaching up to 60-70 mph. There will also be rather strong low-level shear in place, which may support some threat for a few tornadoes embedded within the line, especially if low-level flow can remain backed more to a southeasterly component. The northeastward extent of this severe wind and tornado risk into the Mid-Atlantic and NY remains unclear, as persistent cloud cover will inhibit daytime heating to some extent. Still, most guidance shows one or more lines persisting through the afternoon and evening while posing some wind threat. Severe probabilities have been adjusted northeastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic to account for latest observational and guidance trends. ...Southeast/Carolinas... The southern portion of the highly amplified upper trough will continue eastward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast today, as an intense southerly low-level jet shifts east across north FL and the Carolinas through this evening. Ongoing pre-frontal convection has mostly weakened late this morning/early afternoon, with a couple of stronger cells persisting over southeast GA and north FL where greater low-level moisture and instability is present. Adequately enlarged low-level hodographs within a gradually destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL, with weaker instability over the coastal Carolinas) should continue to support organized convection through the afternoon and evening, before activity eventually moves offshore. Broken line segments (mainly Carolinas) and some supercells (mainly southeast GA and north FL) will pose a threat for scattered damaging winds (peak gusts up to 55-70 mph) and a few tornadoes. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind and a few tornadoes remain possible through the remainder of this afternoon and evening across parts of upstate New York, the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast. ...20z Update... The main forecast changes for 20z have been to reduce probabilities behind the squall line ongoing over PA and western NY state, and expand slightly ahead of the more persistent bowing segments over northern NY. Lingering cloud cover and modest surface moisture greatly limit available buoyancy ahead of the line. With only a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE, decreasing with eastward extent, a gradual loss in intensity is expected over the next several hours over northeastern PA and NY. Still, very strong gradient winds and flow aloft will support some potential for convective-enhanced damaging gusts through this evening. 300-400 m2/s2 of 0-3km SRH may also support the threat for a couple of brief QLCS tornadoes while the line maintains intensity. Probabilities have also be trimmed farther south over parts of the western Carolinas, GA and northern FL as the main convective band and cold front have shifted east. Some isolated thunderstorm redevelopment remains possible over parts of the Blue Ridge Mountains of western VA and into the central Carolinas where diurnal heating has steepened low-level lapse rates immediately ahead of the synoptic cold front. While confidence in severe potential is modest given meager buoyancy, the steep lapse rates could support damaging gusts or marginal hail, should more sustained convection redevelop as indicated by some CAMS. These storms may eventually shift eastward into the mid Atlantic late this afternoon and into the early evening, where low-level synoptic flow remains fairly strong. Will maintain the Slight Risk for damaging gusts and isolated tornado potential over parts of the Mid Atlantic into tonight. ..Lyons.. 03/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025/ ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... A highly amplified upper trough over the MS Valley this morning will advance eastward over much of the eastern CONUS today. An embedded 100+ kt southwesterly mid-level jet and associated large-scale ascent will overspread the upper OH Valley and western Mid-Atlantic regions through this evening. The primary surface low over eastern Lower MI will develop northeastward into Ontario and Quebec through the day, while an attendant cold front sweeps eastward across the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic through the period. Recent visible satellite imagery shows some clearing ahead of the synoptic cold front in eastern OH and western PA. Although low-level moisture will be somewhat limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, cool mid-level temperatures will overspread the narrow warm sector this afternoon. This, combined with daytime heating, will support a narrow zone of up to 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE just ahead of the cold front and/or pre-frontal trough, which should be sufficient for surface-based convection. Bands of low-topped thunderstorms have developed both along and just ahead of the cold front. This activity will move quickly east-northeastward across WV, western/central PA, and parts of NY through the day. With strong low/mid-level flow already in place per area VWPs, this line should pose a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds, with peak gusts perhaps reaching up to 60-70 mph. There will also be rather strong low-level shear in place, which may support some threat for a few tornadoes embedded within the line, especially if low-level flow can remain backed more to a southeasterly component. The northeastward extent of this severe wind and tornado risk into the Mid-Atlantic and NY remains unclear, as persistent cloud cover will inhibit daytime heating to some extent. Still, most guidance shows one or more lines persisting through the afternoon and evening while posing some wind threat. Severe probabilities have been adjusted northeastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic to account for latest observational and guidance trends. ...Southeast/Carolinas... The southern portion of the highly amplified upper trough will continue eastward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast today, as an intense southerly low-level jet shifts east across north FL and the Carolinas through this evening. Ongoing pre-frontal convection has mostly weakened late this morning/early afternoon, with a couple of stronger cells persisting over southeast GA and north FL where greater low-level moisture and instability is present. Adequately enlarged low-level hodographs within a gradually destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL, with weaker instability over the coastal Carolinas) should continue to support organized convection through the afternoon and evening, before activity eventually moves offshore. Broken line segments (mainly Carolinas) and some supercells (mainly southeast GA and north FL) will pose a threat for scattered damaging winds (peak gusts up to 55-70 mph) and a few tornadoes. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind and a few tornadoes remain possible through the remainder of this afternoon and evening across parts of upstate New York, the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast. ...20z Update... The main forecast changes for 20z have been to reduce probabilities behind the squall line ongoing over PA and western NY state, and expand slightly ahead of the more persistent bowing segments over northern NY. Lingering cloud cover and modest surface moisture greatly limit available buoyancy ahead of the line. With only a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE, decreasing with eastward extent, a gradual loss in intensity is expected over the next several hours over northeastern PA and NY. Still, very strong gradient winds and flow aloft will support some potential for convective-enhanced damaging gusts through this evening. 300-400 m2/s2 of 0-3km SRH may also support the threat for a couple of brief QLCS tornadoes while the line maintains intensity. Probabilities have also be trimmed farther south over parts of the western Carolinas, GA and northern FL as the main convective band and cold front have shifted east. Some isolated thunderstorm redevelopment remains possible over parts of the Blue Ridge Mountains of western VA and into the central Carolinas where diurnal heating has steepened low-level lapse rates immediately ahead of the synoptic cold front. While confidence in severe potential is modest given meager buoyancy, the steep lapse rates could support damaging gusts or marginal hail, should more sustained convection redevelop as indicated by some CAMS. These storms may eventually shift eastward into the mid Atlantic late this afternoon and into the early evening, where low-level synoptic flow remains fairly strong. Will maintain the Slight Risk for damaging gusts and isolated tornado potential over parts of the Mid Atlantic into tonight. ..Lyons.. 03/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025/ ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... A highly amplified upper trough over the MS Valley this morning will advance eastward over much of the eastern CONUS today. An embedded 100+ kt southwesterly mid-level jet and associated large-scale ascent will overspread the upper OH Valley and western Mid-Atlantic regions through this evening. The primary surface low over eastern Lower MI will develop northeastward into Ontario and Quebec through the day, while an attendant cold front sweeps eastward across the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic through the period. Recent visible satellite imagery shows some clearing ahead of the synoptic cold front in eastern OH and western PA. Although low-level moisture will be somewhat limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, cool mid-level temperatures will overspread the narrow warm sector this afternoon. This, combined with daytime heating, will support a narrow zone of up to 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE just ahead of the cold front and/or pre-frontal trough, which should be sufficient for surface-based convection. Bands of low-topped thunderstorms have developed both along and just ahead of the cold front. This activity will move quickly east-northeastward across WV, western/central PA, and parts of NY through the day. With strong low/mid-level flow already in place per area VWPs, this line should pose a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds, with peak gusts perhaps reaching up to 60-70 mph. There will also be rather strong low-level shear in place, which may support some threat for a few tornadoes embedded within the line, especially if low-level flow can remain backed more to a southeasterly component. The northeastward extent of this severe wind and tornado risk into the Mid-Atlantic and NY remains unclear, as persistent cloud cover will inhibit daytime heating to some extent. Still, most guidance shows one or more lines persisting through the afternoon and evening while posing some wind threat. Severe probabilities have been adjusted northeastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic to account for latest observational and guidance trends. ...Southeast/Carolinas... The southern portion of the highly amplified upper trough will continue eastward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast today, as an intense southerly low-level jet shifts east across north FL and the Carolinas through this evening. Ongoing pre-frontal convection has mostly weakened late this morning/early afternoon, with a couple of stronger cells persisting over southeast GA and north FL where greater low-level moisture and instability is present. Adequately enlarged low-level hodographs within a gradually destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL, with weaker instability over the coastal Carolinas) should continue to support organized convection through the afternoon and evening, before activity eventually moves offshore. Broken line segments (mainly Carolinas) and some supercells (mainly southeast GA and north FL) will pose a threat for scattered damaging winds (peak gusts up to 55-70 mph) and a few tornadoes. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind and a few tornadoes remain possible through the remainder of this afternoon and evening across parts of upstate New York, the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast. ...20z Update... The main forecast changes for 20z have been to reduce probabilities behind the squall line ongoing over PA and western NY state, and expand slightly ahead of the more persistent bowing segments over northern NY. Lingering cloud cover and modest surface moisture greatly limit available buoyancy ahead of the line. With only a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE, decreasing with eastward extent, a gradual loss in intensity is expected over the next several hours over northeastern PA and NY. Still, very strong gradient winds and flow aloft will support some potential for convective-enhanced damaging gusts through this evening. 300-400 m2/s2 of 0-3km SRH may also support the threat for a couple of brief QLCS tornadoes while the line maintains intensity. Probabilities have also be trimmed farther south over parts of the western Carolinas, GA and northern FL as the main convective band and cold front have shifted east. Some isolated thunderstorm redevelopment remains possible over parts of the Blue Ridge Mountains of western VA and into the central Carolinas where diurnal heating has steepened low-level lapse rates immediately ahead of the synoptic cold front. While confidence in severe potential is modest given meager buoyancy, the steep lapse rates could support damaging gusts or marginal hail, should more sustained convection redevelop as indicated by some CAMS. These storms may eventually shift eastward into the mid Atlantic late this afternoon and into the early evening, where low-level synoptic flow remains fairly strong. Will maintain the Slight Risk for damaging gusts and isolated tornado potential over parts of the Mid Atlantic into tonight. ..Lyons.. 03/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025/ ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... A highly amplified upper trough over the MS Valley this morning will advance eastward over much of the eastern CONUS today. An embedded 100+ kt southwesterly mid-level jet and associated large-scale ascent will overspread the upper OH Valley and western Mid-Atlantic regions through this evening. The primary surface low over eastern Lower MI will develop northeastward into Ontario and Quebec through the day, while an attendant cold front sweeps eastward across the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic through the period. Recent visible satellite imagery shows some clearing ahead of the synoptic cold front in eastern OH and western PA. Although low-level moisture will be somewhat limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, cool mid-level temperatures will overspread the narrow warm sector this afternoon. This, combined with daytime heating, will support a narrow zone of up to 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE just ahead of the cold front and/or pre-frontal trough, which should be sufficient for surface-based convection. Bands of low-topped thunderstorms have developed both along and just ahead of the cold front. This activity will move quickly east-northeastward across WV, western/central PA, and parts of NY through the day. With strong low/mid-level flow already in place per area VWPs, this line should pose a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds, with peak gusts perhaps reaching up to 60-70 mph. There will also be rather strong low-level shear in place, which may support some threat for a few tornadoes embedded within the line, especially if low-level flow can remain backed more to a southeasterly component. The northeastward extent of this severe wind and tornado risk into the Mid-Atlantic and NY remains unclear, as persistent cloud cover will inhibit daytime heating to some extent. Still, most guidance shows one or more lines persisting through the afternoon and evening while posing some wind threat. Severe probabilities have been adjusted northeastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic to account for latest observational and guidance trends. ...Southeast/Carolinas... The southern portion of the highly amplified upper trough will continue eastward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast today, as an intense southerly low-level jet shifts east across north FL and the Carolinas through this evening. Ongoing pre-frontal convection has mostly weakened late this morning/early afternoon, with a couple of stronger cells persisting over southeast GA and north FL where greater low-level moisture and instability is present. Adequately enlarged low-level hodographs within a gradually destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL, with weaker instability over the coastal Carolinas) should continue to support organized convection through the afternoon and evening, before activity eventually moves offshore. Broken line segments (mainly Carolinas) and some supercells (mainly southeast GA and north FL) will pose a threat for scattered damaging winds (peak gusts up to 55-70 mph) and a few tornadoes. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind and a few tornadoes remain possible through the remainder of this afternoon and evening across parts of upstate New York, the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast. ...20z Update... The main forecast changes for 20z have been to reduce probabilities behind the squall line ongoing over PA and western NY state, and expand slightly ahead of the more persistent bowing segments over northern NY. Lingering cloud cover and modest surface moisture greatly limit available buoyancy ahead of the line. With only a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE, decreasing with eastward extent, a gradual loss in intensity is expected over the next several hours over northeastern PA and NY. Still, very strong gradient winds and flow aloft will support some potential for convective-enhanced damaging gusts through this evening. 300-400 m2/s2 of 0-3km SRH may also support the threat for a couple of brief QLCS tornadoes while the line maintains intensity. Probabilities have also be trimmed farther south over parts of the western Carolinas, GA and northern FL as the main convective band and cold front have shifted east. Some isolated thunderstorm redevelopment remains possible over parts of the Blue Ridge Mountains of western VA and into the central Carolinas where diurnal heating has steepened low-level lapse rates immediately ahead of the synoptic cold front. While confidence in severe potential is modest given meager buoyancy, the steep lapse rates could support damaging gusts or marginal hail, should more sustained convection redevelop as indicated by some CAMS. These storms may eventually shift eastward into the mid Atlantic late this afternoon and into the early evening, where low-level synoptic flow remains fairly strong. Will maintain the Slight Risk for damaging gusts and isolated tornado potential over parts of the Mid Atlantic into tonight. ..Lyons.. 03/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025/ ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... A highly amplified upper trough over the MS Valley this morning will advance eastward over much of the eastern CONUS today. An embedded 100+ kt southwesterly mid-level jet and associated large-scale ascent will overspread the upper OH Valley and western Mid-Atlantic regions through this evening. The primary surface low over eastern Lower MI will develop northeastward into Ontario and Quebec through the day, while an attendant cold front sweeps eastward across the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic through the period. Recent visible satellite imagery shows some clearing ahead of the synoptic cold front in eastern OH and western PA. Although low-level moisture will be somewhat limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, cool mid-level temperatures will overspread the narrow warm sector this afternoon. This, combined with daytime heating, will support a narrow zone of up to 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE just ahead of the cold front and/or pre-frontal trough, which should be sufficient for surface-based convection. Bands of low-topped thunderstorms have developed both along and just ahead of the cold front. This activity will move quickly east-northeastward across WV, western/central PA, and parts of NY through the day. With strong low/mid-level flow already in place per area VWPs, this line should pose a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds, with peak gusts perhaps reaching up to 60-70 mph. There will also be rather strong low-level shear in place, which may support some threat for a few tornadoes embedded within the line, especially if low-level flow can remain backed more to a southeasterly component. The northeastward extent of this severe wind and tornado risk into the Mid-Atlantic and NY remains unclear, as persistent cloud cover will inhibit daytime heating to some extent. Still, most guidance shows one or more lines persisting through the afternoon and evening while posing some wind threat. Severe probabilities have been adjusted northeastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic to account for latest observational and guidance trends. ...Southeast/Carolinas... The southern portion of the highly amplified upper trough will continue eastward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast today, as an intense southerly low-level jet shifts east across north FL and the Carolinas through this evening. Ongoing pre-frontal convection has mostly weakened late this morning/early afternoon, with a couple of stronger cells persisting over southeast GA and north FL where greater low-level moisture and instability is present. Adequately enlarged low-level hodographs within a gradually destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL, with weaker instability over the coastal Carolinas) should continue to support organized convection through the afternoon and evening, before activity eventually moves offshore. Broken line segments (mainly Carolinas) and some supercells (mainly southeast GA and north FL) will pose a threat for scattered damaging winds (peak gusts up to 55-70 mph) and a few tornadoes. Read more

WW 0054 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 54 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE SSU TO 40 ENE EKN TO 35 S AOO TO 25 ENE AOO TO 25 ENE UNV TO 30 NW IPT TO 30 WNW ELM. ..BENTLEY..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 54 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC001-043-162040- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY WASHINGTON PAC041-055-057-061-067-081-087-099-109-117-119-162040- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN FULTON HUNTINGDON JUNIATA LYCOMING MIFFLIN PERRY SNYDER TIOGA UNION VAC015-043-069-091-139-165-171-187-660-790-820-840-162040- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0054 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 54 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE SSU TO 40 ENE EKN TO 35 S AOO TO 25 ENE AOO TO 25 ENE UNV TO 30 NW IPT TO 30 WNW ELM. ..BENTLEY..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 54 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC001-043-162040- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY WASHINGTON PAC041-055-057-061-067-081-087-099-109-117-119-162040- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN FULTON HUNTINGDON JUNIATA LYCOMING MIFFLIN PERRY SNYDER TIOGA UNION VAC015-043-069-091-139-165-171-187-660-790-820-840-162040- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0054 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 54 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE SSU TO 40 ENE EKN TO 35 S AOO TO 25 ENE AOO TO 25 ENE UNV TO 30 NW IPT TO 30 WNW ELM. ..BENTLEY..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 54 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC001-043-162040- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY WASHINGTON PAC041-055-057-061-067-081-087-099-109-117-119-162040- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN FULTON HUNTINGDON JUNIATA LYCOMING MIFFLIN PERRY SNYDER TIOGA UNION VAC015-043-069-091-139-165-171-187-660-790-820-840-162040- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0055 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 55 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW ELM TO 15 S ROC TO 55 N ROC. ..BENTLEY..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 55 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC007-011-015-023-051-055-067-069-097-099-101-107-109-117-123- 162040- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOME CAYUGA CHEMUNG CORTLAND LIVINGSTON MONROE ONONDAGA ONTARIO SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN TIOGA TOMPKINS WAYNE YATES PAC015-069-079-115-131-162040- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADFORD LACKAWANNA LUZERNE SUSQUEHANNA WYOMING LOZ030-043-063-162040- CW Read more

WW 0055 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 55 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW ELM TO 15 S ROC TO 55 N ROC. ..BENTLEY..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 55 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC007-011-015-023-051-055-067-069-097-099-101-107-109-117-123- 162040- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOME CAYUGA CHEMUNG CORTLAND LIVINGSTON MONROE ONONDAGA ONTARIO SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN TIOGA TOMPKINS WAYNE YATES PAC015-069-079-115-131-162040- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADFORD LACKAWANNA LUZERNE SUSQUEHANNA WYOMING LOZ030-043-063-162040- CW Read more

WW 0055 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 55 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW ELM TO 15 S ROC TO 55 N ROC. ..BENTLEY..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 55 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC007-011-015-023-051-055-067-069-097-099-101-107-109-117-123- 162040- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOME CAYUGA CHEMUNG CORTLAND LIVINGSTON MONROE ONONDAGA ONTARIO SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN TIOGA TOMPKINS WAYNE YATES PAC015-069-079-115-131-162040- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADFORD LACKAWANNA LUZERNE SUSQUEHANNA WYOMING LOZ030-043-063-162040- CW Read more

WW 0055 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 55 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW ELM TO 15 S ROC TO 55 N ROC. ..BENTLEY..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 55 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC007-011-015-023-051-055-067-069-097-099-101-107-109-117-123- 162040- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOME CAYUGA CHEMUNG CORTLAND LIVINGSTON MONROE ONONDAGA ONTARIO SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN TIOGA TOMPKINS WAYNE YATES PAC015-069-079-115-131-162040- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADFORD LACKAWANNA LUZERNE SUSQUEHANNA WYOMING LOZ030-043-063-162040- CW Read more

WW 0055 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 55 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW ELM TO 15 S ROC TO 55 N ROC. ..BENTLEY..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 55 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC007-011-015-023-051-055-067-069-097-099-101-107-109-117-123- 162040- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOME CAYUGA CHEMUNG CORTLAND LIVINGSTON MONROE ONONDAGA ONTARIO SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN TIOGA TOMPKINS WAYNE YATES PAC015-069-079-115-131-162040- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADFORD LACKAWANNA LUZERNE SUSQUEHANNA WYOMING LOZ030-043-063-162040- CW Read more

WW 0055 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 55 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW ELM TO 15 S ROC TO 55 N ROC. ..BENTLEY..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 55 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC007-011-015-023-051-055-067-069-097-099-101-107-109-117-123- 162040- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOME CAYUGA CHEMUNG CORTLAND LIVINGSTON MONROE ONONDAGA ONTARIO SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN TIOGA TOMPKINS WAYNE YATES PAC015-069-079-115-131-162040- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADFORD LACKAWANNA LUZERNE SUSQUEHANNA WYOMING LOZ030-043-063-162040- CW Read more

WW 55 SEVERE TSTM NY LE LO 161735Z - 162300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 55 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 135 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western New York Lake Erie Lake Ontario * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Bands of thunderstorms will move quickly northeastward across western New York this afternoon and early evening. Scattered damaging winds, with peak gusts up to 60-70 mph, should be the main threat. A brief tornado or two may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles northwest of Rochester NY to 45 miles east southeast of Jamestown NY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 51...WW 52...WW 53...WW 54... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 350. Mean storm motion vector 22045. ...Gleason Read more

MD 0232 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 52... FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 0232 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Areas affected...northern and central Florida Concerning...Tornado Watch 52... Valid 161821Z - 161945Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 52 continues. SUMMARY...A couple of damaging gusts or a tornado cannot be ruled out through the remainder of the afternoon. An extension to Tornado Watch 52 or a new watch may be needed if storms maintain their intensity. DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms continues across the northern and central portions of the FL peninsula. Upper support continues to drift away from FL, which may limit thunderstorm intensity and severe potential to some degree. However, downstream ample heating is boosting MLCAPE to over 2000 J/kg, with residual strong flow aloft still contributing to 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear. As such, it is unclear the extent of future severe potential. Local temporal extensions of Tornado Watch 52, or the issuance of a new WW, may be needed if storms show signs of further organization or intensity. ..Squitieri.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 28768334 30648225 31038168 30688141 29768102 29218126 28458209 28218271 28178294 28228325 28768334 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS... Minor adjustments were made to expand Critical probabilities further north into Kansas and eastern Colorado in alignment with recent guidance. Otherwise, the current forecast remains unchanged. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0748 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will return to the southern and central Plains on Monday as a dry return flow regime becomes established across the central CONUS. A surface low is forecast to deepen along the northern High Plains before migrating into the northern Plains through the day Monday. As this occurs, a strong low-level mass response will induce breezy southerly winds from TX into the central Plains. A recent frontal passage into the northern Gulf has degraded moisture quality along the TX coast with persistent offshore flow expected for the next 24 hours. Consequently, moisture return into the Plains on Monday is expected to be limited and will allow for RH reductions into the teens to mid 20s as temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s. A surface high shifting into the Southeast by Monday afternoon will support strong pressure gradient winds across NM and western TX/OK with a high probability for a large swath of sustained winds over 20 mph. Fire weather concerns are expected to be greatest across this region given recent fire activity and expected RH reductions into the low teens and single digits. Further north into the central High Plains, closer proximity to the surface trough/low will likely result in sustained winds closer to 15-20 mph. While weaker, these will still be sufficient to pose a widespread fire weather risk given receptive fine fuels over the region. Both the Critical and Elevated fire weather risk areas were expanded east compared to the previous forecast to take into account the typical bias in guidance to under-mix the boundary layer in these regimes (which typically results in drier/windier conditions than otherwise expected). Additional uncertainties include the east/northeast extent of the fire weather risk given recent precipitation across parts of the MO River Valley. Fuel trends will be monitored and further expansions may be needed depending on fuel trends. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS... Minor adjustments were made to expand Critical probabilities further north into Kansas and eastern Colorado in alignment with recent guidance. Otherwise, the current forecast remains unchanged. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0748 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will return to the southern and central Plains on Monday as a dry return flow regime becomes established across the central CONUS. A surface low is forecast to deepen along the northern High Plains before migrating into the northern Plains through the day Monday. As this occurs, a strong low-level mass response will induce breezy southerly winds from TX into the central Plains. A recent frontal passage into the northern Gulf has degraded moisture quality along the TX coast with persistent offshore flow expected for the next 24 hours. Consequently, moisture return into the Plains on Monday is expected to be limited and will allow for RH reductions into the teens to mid 20s as temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s. A surface high shifting into the Southeast by Monday afternoon will support strong pressure gradient winds across NM and western TX/OK with a high probability for a large swath of sustained winds over 20 mph. Fire weather concerns are expected to be greatest across this region given recent fire activity and expected RH reductions into the low teens and single digits. Further north into the central High Plains, closer proximity to the surface trough/low will likely result in sustained winds closer to 15-20 mph. While weaker, these will still be sufficient to pose a widespread fire weather risk given receptive fine fuels over the region. Both the Critical and Elevated fire weather risk areas were expanded east compared to the previous forecast to take into account the typical bias in guidance to under-mix the boundary layer in these regimes (which typically results in drier/windier conditions than otherwise expected). Additional uncertainties include the east/northeast extent of the fire weather risk given recent precipitation across parts of the MO River Valley. Fuel trends will be monitored and further expansions may be needed depending on fuel trends. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more