SPC Tornado Watch 53 Status Reports

4 months ago
WW 0053 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N SSU TO 10 ESE MGW TO 15 NNW ERI. ..LYONS..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...CLE...RLX...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS PAC005-031-039-049-053-063-065-121-161940- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG CLARION CRAWFORD ERIE FOREST INDIANA JEFFERSON VENANGO WVC075-077-083-093-161940- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE POCAHONTAS PRESTON RANDOLPH TUCKER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 53 Status Reports

4 months ago
WW 0053 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N SSU TO 10 ESE MGW TO 15 NNW ERI. ..LYONS..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...CLE...RLX...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS PAC005-031-039-049-053-063-065-121-161940- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG CLARION CRAWFORD ERIE FOREST INDIANA JEFFERSON VENANGO WVC075-077-083-093-161940- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE POCAHONTAS PRESTON RANDOLPH TUCKER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 53 Status Reports

4 months ago
WW 0053 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N SSU TO 10 ESE MGW TO 15 NNW ERI. ..LYONS..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...CLE...RLX...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS PAC005-031-039-049-053-063-065-121-161940- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG CLARION CRAWFORD ERIE FOREST INDIANA JEFFERSON VENANGO WVC075-077-083-093-161940- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE POCAHONTAS PRESTON RANDOLPH TUCKER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 53

4 months ago
WW 53 TORNADO OH PA WV 161430Z - 162000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 53 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Ohio Western Pennsylvania West Virginia * Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 1030 AM until 400 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Multiple lines and clusters of thunderstorms will continue to develop and intensify as they move quickly northeastward late this morning and into the afternoon. Scattered damaging winds will likely be the main threat with this activity, with peak gusts perhaps reaching up to 60-70 mph. But, the environment will also support some threat for a few line-embedded tornadoes as well. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northwest of Franklin PA to 40 miles south southeast of Charleston WV. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 51...WW 52... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 350. Mean storm motion vector 22045. ...Gleason Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 54 Status Reports

4 months ago
WW 0054 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 54 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW EKN TO 40 SSE LBE TO 15 W AOO TO 5 S DUJ TO 20 NNE ERI. ..LYONS..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 54 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC001-023-043-161940- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY GARRETT WASHINGTON PAC009-013-021-023-027-033-035-041-047-055-057-061-067-081-083- 087-099-105-109-111-117-119-123-161940- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEDFORD BLAIR CAMBRIA CAMERON CENTRE CLEARFIELD CLINTON CUMBERLAND ELK FRANKLIN FULTON HUNTINGDON JUNIATA LYCOMING MCKEAN MIFFLIN PERRY POTTER SNYDER SOMERSET TIOGA UNION WARREN VAC015-043-069-091-139-165-171-187-660-790-820-840-161940- Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 55 Status Reports

4 months ago
WW 0055 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 55 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 55 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC003-009-013-029-037-051-055-063-069-073-097-099-101-117-121- 123-161940- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY CATTARAUGUS CHAUTAUQUA ERIE GENESEE LIVINGSTON MONROE NIAGARA ONTARIO ORLEANS SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN WAYNE WYOMING YATES LEZ020-040-041-061-LOZ030-042-043-062-063-161940- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH NY HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY Read more

SPC MD 228

4 months ago
MD 0228 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 53... FOR WEST VIRGINIA...FAR WESTERN MARYLAND...WESTERN AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK.
Mesoscale Discussion 0228 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Areas affected...West Virginia...far western Maryland...western and central Pennsylvania...and far southwestern New York. Concerning...Tornado Watch 53... Valid 161608Z - 161745Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 53 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds and isolated tornadoes remains through mid-afternoon. DISCUSSION...A line of storms has now developed along the pre-frontal trough across West Virginia and eastern Ohio/southwest Pennsylvania. This line of storms is already starting to accelerate northeast. Visible satellite continues to show cloud breaks ahead of these storms which should allow for some destabilization immediately ahead of these storms. Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes remain the primary threat. These storms may reach the eastern edge of tornado watch 53 within the next 60 to 90 minutes. An additional watch may be needed soon across portions of central Pennsylvania and perhaps into southern New York. ..Bentley/Gleason.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE... LAT...LON 37818140 38308118 38918107 39848163 40968168 41048172 41478164 41748111 42187988 42467840 42367777 41597700 40977730 39837773 38987869 38247991 37848068 37818140 Read more

SPC MD 227

4 months ago
MD 0227 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 52... FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0227 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Areas affected...far southeastern Georgia into the northern and central Florida Peninsula Concerning...Tornado Watch 52... Valid 161539Z - 161715Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 52 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 52. Damaging gusts should be the main threat, though a couple of tornadoes still cannot be ruled out through at least early afternoon. DISCUSSION...Multiple thunderstorm clusters and transient supercells continue to progress across far southeast GA into the northern and central FL Peninsula, with additional storms over the eastern Gulf poised to move ashore over the next few hours. These storms are progressing toward a heated airmass, with surface temperatures already exceeding 80 F in multiple locales. Given 70+ F surface dewpoints, 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE is already in place. While strong flow aloft is contributing to 50+ kts of effective bulk shear, the northward advancement of the upper trough is resulting in deep-layer ascent and the accompanying low-level jet to drift away from the FL peninsula. Regional VADs show a slight decreasing trend in low-level shear. However, these VADs still show adequate hodograph elongation and curvature near the GA/FL border to support a couple of tornadoes. Otherwise, damaging gusts should remain the primary severe threat this afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 28638324 29368322 30928265 31348230 31518170 31508147 31368138 30468137 29828119 29408125 28838180 28648229 28588279 28638324 Read more

SPC Mar 16, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

4 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Monday. ...Discussion... A return to negligible severe potential across the CONUS will occur on Monday. In the West, a broad upper trough will progress with multiple embedded shortwave impulses. The primary impulse will move across parts of CA into the southern Great Basin, aiding in overall amplification of the trough by Monday night. A large plume of cool mid-level temperatures combined with modest boundary-layer heating should support pockets of scant to meager buoyancy. Low-topped convection will be most probable across the Central Valley of CA, where thunder coverage may become scattered during the afternoon. Weak deep-layer shear is expected where instability develops, north of the southern CA jetlet. While small hail and locally gusty winds are possible, organized severe storms are not anticipated. Elsewhere in the West, thunder coverage should be rather isolated. Low-probability thunder with isolated low-topped convection is apparent along the immediate NC coast on Monday afternoon. While a post-frontal environment, scant buoyancy may develop as a sharp gradient in mid-level cooling approaches at peak boundary-layer heating. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 16, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

4 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Monday. ...Discussion... A return to negligible severe potential across the CONUS will occur on Monday. In the West, a broad upper trough will progress with multiple embedded shortwave impulses. The primary impulse will move across parts of CA into the southern Great Basin, aiding in overall amplification of the trough by Monday night. A large plume of cool mid-level temperatures combined with modest boundary-layer heating should support pockets of scant to meager buoyancy. Low-topped convection will be most probable across the Central Valley of CA, where thunder coverage may become scattered during the afternoon. Weak deep-layer shear is expected where instability develops, north of the southern CA jetlet. While small hail and locally gusty winds are possible, organized severe storms are not anticipated. Elsewhere in the West, thunder coverage should be rather isolated. Low-probability thunder with isolated low-topped convection is apparent along the immediate NC coast on Monday afternoon. While a post-frontal environment, scant buoyancy may develop as a sharp gradient in mid-level cooling approaches at peak boundary-layer heating. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 16, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

4 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Monday. ...Discussion... A return to negligible severe potential across the CONUS will occur on Monday. In the West, a broad upper trough will progress with multiple embedded shortwave impulses. The primary impulse will move across parts of CA into the southern Great Basin, aiding in overall amplification of the trough by Monday night. A large plume of cool mid-level temperatures combined with modest boundary-layer heating should support pockets of scant to meager buoyancy. Low-topped convection will be most probable across the Central Valley of CA, where thunder coverage may become scattered during the afternoon. Weak deep-layer shear is expected where instability develops, north of the southern CA jetlet. While small hail and locally gusty winds are possible, organized severe storms are not anticipated. Elsewhere in the West, thunder coverage should be rather isolated. Low-probability thunder with isolated low-topped convection is apparent along the immediate NC coast on Monday afternoon. While a post-frontal environment, scant buoyancy may develop as a sharp gradient in mid-level cooling approaches at peak boundary-layer heating. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 16, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

4 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Monday. ...Discussion... A return to negligible severe potential across the CONUS will occur on Monday. In the West, a broad upper trough will progress with multiple embedded shortwave impulses. The primary impulse will move across parts of CA into the southern Great Basin, aiding in overall amplification of the trough by Monday night. A large plume of cool mid-level temperatures combined with modest boundary-layer heating should support pockets of scant to meager buoyancy. Low-topped convection will be most probable across the Central Valley of CA, where thunder coverage may become scattered during the afternoon. Weak deep-layer shear is expected where instability develops, north of the southern CA jetlet. While small hail and locally gusty winds are possible, organized severe storms are not anticipated. Elsewhere in the West, thunder coverage should be rather isolated. Low-probability thunder with isolated low-topped convection is apparent along the immediate NC coast on Monday afternoon. While a post-frontal environment, scant buoyancy may develop as a sharp gradient in mid-level cooling approaches at peak boundary-layer heating. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 16, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

4 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Monday. ...Discussion... A return to negligible severe potential across the CONUS will occur on Monday. In the West, a broad upper trough will progress with multiple embedded shortwave impulses. The primary impulse will move across parts of CA into the southern Great Basin, aiding in overall amplification of the trough by Monday night. A large plume of cool mid-level temperatures combined with modest boundary-layer heating should support pockets of scant to meager buoyancy. Low-topped convection will be most probable across the Central Valley of CA, where thunder coverage may become scattered during the afternoon. Weak deep-layer shear is expected where instability develops, north of the southern CA jetlet. While small hail and locally gusty winds are possible, organized severe storms are not anticipated. Elsewhere in the West, thunder coverage should be rather isolated. Low-probability thunder with isolated low-topped convection is apparent along the immediate NC coast on Monday afternoon. While a post-frontal environment, scant buoyancy may develop as a sharp gradient in mid-level cooling approaches at peak boundary-layer heating. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 16, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

4 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Monday. ...Discussion... A return to negligible severe potential across the CONUS will occur on Monday. In the West, a broad upper trough will progress with multiple embedded shortwave impulses. The primary impulse will move across parts of CA into the southern Great Basin, aiding in overall amplification of the trough by Monday night. A large plume of cool mid-level temperatures combined with modest boundary-layer heating should support pockets of scant to meager buoyancy. Low-topped convection will be most probable across the Central Valley of CA, where thunder coverage may become scattered during the afternoon. Weak deep-layer shear is expected where instability develops, north of the southern CA jetlet. While small hail and locally gusty winds are possible, organized severe storms are not anticipated. Elsewhere in the West, thunder coverage should be rather isolated. Low-probability thunder with isolated low-topped convection is apparent along the immediate NC coast on Monday afternoon. While a post-frontal environment, scant buoyancy may develop as a sharp gradient in mid-level cooling approaches at peak boundary-layer heating. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 16, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

4 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Monday. ...Discussion... A return to negligible severe potential across the CONUS will occur on Monday. In the West, a broad upper trough will progress with multiple embedded shortwave impulses. The primary impulse will move across parts of CA into the southern Great Basin, aiding in overall amplification of the trough by Monday night. A large plume of cool mid-level temperatures combined with modest boundary-layer heating should support pockets of scant to meager buoyancy. Low-topped convection will be most probable across the Central Valley of CA, where thunder coverage may become scattered during the afternoon. Weak deep-layer shear is expected where instability develops, north of the southern CA jetlet. While small hail and locally gusty winds are possible, organized severe storms are not anticipated. Elsewhere in the West, thunder coverage should be rather isolated. Low-probability thunder with isolated low-topped convection is apparent along the immediate NC coast on Monday afternoon. While a post-frontal environment, scant buoyancy may develop as a sharp gradient in mid-level cooling approaches at peak boundary-layer heating. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 16, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

4 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Monday. ...Discussion... A return to negligible severe potential across the CONUS will occur on Monday. In the West, a broad upper trough will progress with multiple embedded shortwave impulses. The primary impulse will move across parts of CA into the southern Great Basin, aiding in overall amplification of the trough by Monday night. A large plume of cool mid-level temperatures combined with modest boundary-layer heating should support pockets of scant to meager buoyancy. Low-topped convection will be most probable across the Central Valley of CA, where thunder coverage may become scattered during the afternoon. Weak deep-layer shear is expected where instability develops, north of the southern CA jetlet. While small hail and locally gusty winds are possible, organized severe storms are not anticipated. Elsewhere in the West, thunder coverage should be rather isolated. Low-probability thunder with isolated low-topped convection is apparent along the immediate NC coast on Monday afternoon. While a post-frontal environment, scant buoyancy may develop as a sharp gradient in mid-level cooling approaches at peak boundary-layer heating. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 16, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

4 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Monday. ...Discussion... A return to negligible severe potential across the CONUS will occur on Monday. In the West, a broad upper trough will progress with multiple embedded shortwave impulses. The primary impulse will move across parts of CA into the southern Great Basin, aiding in overall amplification of the trough by Monday night. A large plume of cool mid-level temperatures combined with modest boundary-layer heating should support pockets of scant to meager buoyancy. Low-topped convection will be most probable across the Central Valley of CA, where thunder coverage may become scattered during the afternoon. Weak deep-layer shear is expected where instability develops, north of the southern CA jetlet. While small hail and locally gusty winds are possible, organized severe storms are not anticipated. Elsewhere in the West, thunder coverage should be rather isolated. Low-probability thunder with isolated low-topped convection is apparent along the immediate NC coast on Monday afternoon. While a post-frontal environment, scant buoyancy may develop as a sharp gradient in mid-level cooling approaches at peak boundary-layer heating. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 16, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

4 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Monday. ...Discussion... A return to negligible severe potential across the CONUS will occur on Monday. In the West, a broad upper trough will progress with multiple embedded shortwave impulses. The primary impulse will move across parts of CA into the southern Great Basin, aiding in overall amplification of the trough by Monday night. A large plume of cool mid-level temperatures combined with modest boundary-layer heating should support pockets of scant to meager buoyancy. Low-topped convection will be most probable across the Central Valley of CA, where thunder coverage may become scattered during the afternoon. Weak deep-layer shear is expected where instability develops, north of the southern CA jetlet. While small hail and locally gusty winds are possible, organized severe storms are not anticipated. Elsewhere in the West, thunder coverage should be rather isolated. Low-probability thunder with isolated low-topped convection is apparent along the immediate NC coast on Monday afternoon. While a post-frontal environment, scant buoyancy may develop as a sharp gradient in mid-level cooling approaches at peak boundary-layer heating. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 16, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

4 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Monday. ...Discussion... A return to negligible severe potential across the CONUS will occur on Monday. In the West, a broad upper trough will progress with multiple embedded shortwave impulses. The primary impulse will move across parts of CA into the southern Great Basin, aiding in overall amplification of the trough by Monday night. A large plume of cool mid-level temperatures combined with modest boundary-layer heating should support pockets of scant to meager buoyancy. Low-topped convection will be most probable across the Central Valley of CA, where thunder coverage may become scattered during the afternoon. Weak deep-layer shear is expected where instability develops, north of the southern CA jetlet. While small hail and locally gusty winds are possible, organized severe storms are not anticipated. Elsewhere in the West, thunder coverage should be rather isolated. Low-probability thunder with isolated low-topped convection is apparent along the immediate NC coast on Monday afternoon. While a post-frontal environment, scant buoyancy may develop as a sharp gradient in mid-level cooling approaches at peak boundary-layer heating. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more
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