Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday from parts of the Mid-Atlantic southward into eastern North Carolina. A severe threat is not expected. ...DISCUSSION... A pre-frontal trough will move from the Appalachians to the Atlantic Coastal plains on Thursday, as an associated mid-level trough moves through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Low-topped convection is forecast to develop near the pre-frontal trough in the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along an axis of strong low-level flow from the Mid-Atlantic southward into eastern North Carolina, mainly during the mid to late afternoon. However, MUCAPE is forecast to remain below 200 J/kg along the instability axis, which should limit the severe potential. ..Broyles.. 03/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday from parts of the Mid-Atlantic southward into eastern North Carolina. A severe threat is not expected. ...DISCUSSION... A pre-frontal trough will move from the Appalachians to the Atlantic Coastal plains on Thursday, as an associated mid-level trough moves through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Low-topped convection is forecast to develop near the pre-frontal trough in the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along an axis of strong low-level flow from the Mid-Atlantic southward into eastern North Carolina, mainly during the mid to late afternoon. However, MUCAPE is forecast to remain below 200 J/kg along the instability axis, which should limit the severe potential. ..Broyles.. 03/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday from parts of the Mid-Atlantic southward into eastern North Carolina. A severe threat is not expected. ...DISCUSSION... A pre-frontal trough will move from the Appalachians to the Atlantic Coastal plains on Thursday, as an associated mid-level trough moves through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Low-topped convection is forecast to develop near the pre-frontal trough in the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along an axis of strong low-level flow from the Mid-Atlantic southward into eastern North Carolina, mainly during the mid to late afternoon. However, MUCAPE is forecast to remain below 200 J/kg along the instability axis, which should limit the severe potential. ..Broyles.. 03/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday from parts of the Mid-Atlantic southward into eastern North Carolina. A severe threat is not expected. ...DISCUSSION... A pre-frontal trough will move from the Appalachians to the Atlantic Coastal plains on Thursday, as an associated mid-level trough moves through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Low-topped convection is forecast to develop near the pre-frontal trough in the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along an axis of strong low-level flow from the Mid-Atlantic southward into eastern North Carolina, mainly during the mid to late afternoon. However, MUCAPE is forecast to remain below 200 J/kg along the instability axis, which should limit the severe potential. ..Broyles.. 03/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday from parts of the Mid-Atlantic southward into eastern North Carolina. A severe threat is not expected. ...DISCUSSION... A pre-frontal trough will move from the Appalachians to the Atlantic Coastal plains on Thursday, as an associated mid-level trough moves through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Low-topped convection is forecast to develop near the pre-frontal trough in the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along an axis of strong low-level flow from the Mid-Atlantic southward into eastern North Carolina, mainly during the mid to late afternoon. However, MUCAPE is forecast to remain below 200 J/kg along the instability axis, which should limit the severe potential. ..Broyles.. 03/18/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected to persist across the southern High Plains into central and southern Texas Wednesday afternoon. More regional fire weather concerns are anticipated across parts of the upper OH River Valley. ...Southern Plains... A Pacific cold front attendant to a deep surface cyclone is expected to push east/southeast across the southern Plains late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. In its wake, cool, but very dry air will overspread eastern NM into OK and TX. Temperature reductions will be muted with southward extent, resulting in a swath of RH minimums between 15-25% from eastern NM to eastern TX. Although the surface low will be lifting to the northeast away from the region, a lingering belt of 20-30 mph winds between 850-700 mb will promote breezy conditions at the surface by mid-afternoon. Ensemble guidance shows a strong signal for sustained winds near 20 mph from the Davis Mountains region southeastward towards the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Valley, though critical wind speeds may emerge as far north as the lee of the Sacramento mountains. More broadly across TX, wind speeds between 15-20 mph will support an expansive swath of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Upper OH River Valley... Southerly winds are expected to strengthen to 15-20 mph ahead of an approaching surface low across much of the OH River Valley. This will induce a downslope flow regime off the northern slopes of the Appalachians with forecast guidance suggesting RH values will fall into the 20-30% range by mid-afternoon across parts of KY, WV, OH, and PA. Although elevated meteorological conditions may be somewhat expansive, the Elevated risk area is confined to locations that received relatively little rainfall over the past few days and will have a higher probability of receptive fuels. ..Moore.. 03/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected to persist across the southern High Plains into central and southern Texas Wednesday afternoon. More regional fire weather concerns are anticipated across parts of the upper OH River Valley. ...Southern Plains... A Pacific cold front attendant to a deep surface cyclone is expected to push east/southeast across the southern Plains late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. In its wake, cool, but very dry air will overspread eastern NM into OK and TX. Temperature reductions will be muted with southward extent, resulting in a swath of RH minimums between 15-25% from eastern NM to eastern TX. Although the surface low will be lifting to the northeast away from the region, a lingering belt of 20-30 mph winds between 850-700 mb will promote breezy conditions at the surface by mid-afternoon. Ensemble guidance shows a strong signal for sustained winds near 20 mph from the Davis Mountains region southeastward towards the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Valley, though critical wind speeds may emerge as far north as the lee of the Sacramento mountains. More broadly across TX, wind speeds between 15-20 mph will support an expansive swath of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Upper OH River Valley... Southerly winds are expected to strengthen to 15-20 mph ahead of an approaching surface low across much of the OH River Valley. This will induce a downslope flow regime off the northern slopes of the Appalachians with forecast guidance suggesting RH values will fall into the 20-30% range by mid-afternoon across parts of KY, WV, OH, and PA. Although elevated meteorological conditions may be somewhat expansive, the Elevated risk area is confined to locations that received relatively little rainfall over the past few days and will have a higher probability of receptive fuels. ..Moore.. 03/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected to persist across the southern High Plains into central and southern Texas Wednesday afternoon. More regional fire weather concerns are anticipated across parts of the upper OH River Valley. ...Southern Plains... A Pacific cold front attendant to a deep surface cyclone is expected to push east/southeast across the southern Plains late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. In its wake, cool, but very dry air will overspread eastern NM into OK and TX. Temperature reductions will be muted with southward extent, resulting in a swath of RH minimums between 15-25% from eastern NM to eastern TX. Although the surface low will be lifting to the northeast away from the region, a lingering belt of 20-30 mph winds between 850-700 mb will promote breezy conditions at the surface by mid-afternoon. Ensemble guidance shows a strong signal for sustained winds near 20 mph from the Davis Mountains region southeastward towards the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Valley, though critical wind speeds may emerge as far north as the lee of the Sacramento mountains. More broadly across TX, wind speeds between 15-20 mph will support an expansive swath of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Upper OH River Valley... Southerly winds are expected to strengthen to 15-20 mph ahead of an approaching surface low across much of the OH River Valley. This will induce a downslope flow regime off the northern slopes of the Appalachians with forecast guidance suggesting RH values will fall into the 20-30% range by mid-afternoon across parts of KY, WV, OH, and PA. Although elevated meteorological conditions may be somewhat expansive, the Elevated risk area is confined to locations that received relatively little rainfall over the past few days and will have a higher probability of receptive fuels. ..Moore.. 03/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected to persist across the southern High Plains into central and southern Texas Wednesday afternoon. More regional fire weather concerns are anticipated across parts of the upper OH River Valley. ...Southern Plains... A Pacific cold front attendant to a deep surface cyclone is expected to push east/southeast across the southern Plains late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. In its wake, cool, but very dry air will overspread eastern NM into OK and TX. Temperature reductions will be muted with southward extent, resulting in a swath of RH minimums between 15-25% from eastern NM to eastern TX. Although the surface low will be lifting to the northeast away from the region, a lingering belt of 20-30 mph winds between 850-700 mb will promote breezy conditions at the surface by mid-afternoon. Ensemble guidance shows a strong signal for sustained winds near 20 mph from the Davis Mountains region southeastward towards the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Valley, though critical wind speeds may emerge as far north as the lee of the Sacramento mountains. More broadly across TX, wind speeds between 15-20 mph will support an expansive swath of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Upper OH River Valley... Southerly winds are expected to strengthen to 15-20 mph ahead of an approaching surface low across much of the OH River Valley. This will induce a downslope flow regime off the northern slopes of the Appalachians with forecast guidance suggesting RH values will fall into the 20-30% range by mid-afternoon across parts of KY, WV, OH, and PA. Although elevated meteorological conditions may be somewhat expansive, the Elevated risk area is confined to locations that received relatively little rainfall over the past few days and will have a higher probability of receptive fuels. ..Moore.. 03/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected to persist across the southern High Plains into central and southern Texas Wednesday afternoon. More regional fire weather concerns are anticipated across parts of the upper OH River Valley. ...Southern Plains... A Pacific cold front attendant to a deep surface cyclone is expected to push east/southeast across the southern Plains late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. In its wake, cool, but very dry air will overspread eastern NM into OK and TX. Temperature reductions will be muted with southward extent, resulting in a swath of RH minimums between 15-25% from eastern NM to eastern TX. Although the surface low will be lifting to the northeast away from the region, a lingering belt of 20-30 mph winds between 850-700 mb will promote breezy conditions at the surface by mid-afternoon. Ensemble guidance shows a strong signal for sustained winds near 20 mph from the Davis Mountains region southeastward towards the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Valley, though critical wind speeds may emerge as far north as the lee of the Sacramento mountains. More broadly across TX, wind speeds between 15-20 mph will support an expansive swath of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Upper OH River Valley... Southerly winds are expected to strengthen to 15-20 mph ahead of an approaching surface low across much of the OH River Valley. This will induce a downslope flow regime off the northern slopes of the Appalachians with forecast guidance suggesting RH values will fall into the 20-30% range by mid-afternoon across parts of KY, WV, OH, and PA. Although elevated meteorological conditions may be somewhat expansive, the Elevated risk area is confined to locations that received relatively little rainfall over the past few days and will have a higher probability of receptive fuels. ..Moore.. 03/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected to persist across the southern High Plains into central and southern Texas Wednesday afternoon. More regional fire weather concerns are anticipated across parts of the upper OH River Valley. ...Southern Plains... A Pacific cold front attendant to a deep surface cyclone is expected to push east/southeast across the southern Plains late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. In its wake, cool, but very dry air will overspread eastern NM into OK and TX. Temperature reductions will be muted with southward extent, resulting in a swath of RH minimums between 15-25% from eastern NM to eastern TX. Although the surface low will be lifting to the northeast away from the region, a lingering belt of 20-30 mph winds between 850-700 mb will promote breezy conditions at the surface by mid-afternoon. Ensemble guidance shows a strong signal for sustained winds near 20 mph from the Davis Mountains region southeastward towards the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Valley, though critical wind speeds may emerge as far north as the lee of the Sacramento mountains. More broadly across TX, wind speeds between 15-20 mph will support an expansive swath of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Upper OH River Valley... Southerly winds are expected to strengthen to 15-20 mph ahead of an approaching surface low across much of the OH River Valley. This will induce a downslope flow regime off the northern slopes of the Appalachians with forecast guidance suggesting RH values will fall into the 20-30% range by mid-afternoon across parts of KY, WV, OH, and PA. Although elevated meteorological conditions may be somewhat expansive, the Elevated risk area is confined to locations that received relatively little rainfall over the past few days and will have a higher probability of receptive fuels. ..Moore.. 03/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected today across parts of the southern High Plains and into western Oklahoma. More broadly, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected across much of the southern and central Plains where fuels remain critical dry after minimal rainfall over the past week. 05 UTC surface observations show surface pressure falls across eastern CO/western KS as a surface low begins to organized ahead of an approaching upper-level trough. Rapid cyclogenesis is anticipated through the afternoon across northwest KS, resulting in a robust low-level mass response across the Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Recent surface observations show 5-15 F dewpoints in place across southeast NM and southwest TX. The 00z MAF sounding sampled even drier air within the residual boundary layer that will quickly mix to the surface by early afternoon. Widespread 25-30 mph gradient winds are expected across much of the southern High Plains with sustained 30-35 mph winds likely under the low-level thermal ridge due to a combination of terrain enhancements along/off the Caprock and maximized boundary-layer mixing. The Extremely Critical risk area aligns with the forecast location of the low-level thermal ridge axis by late afternoon to the west of the dryline. Latest guidance continues to suggest that the dryline will remain across western OK into northwest TX, but extreme/near-extreme fire weather conditions may spread further east if guidance is under-mixing the eastward progression of this boundary. Winds are expected to strengthen slightly and shift from southwest to westerly around/after 21 UTC as a Pacific cold front pushes into the southern High Plains in tandem with the mid-level jet. The combination of increasing wind gusts (possibly up to 50-60 mph) and the directional change may support rapid fire spread with any ongoing fires. ...Central/Eastern TX, OK, KS into MO... To the east of the dryline, a broad swath of 15-25 mph winds is expected across central TX, OK, KS, and adjacent portions of MO. Shallow low-level moisture along the TX Coastal Plain and dewpoints in the 40s off the Gulf coast suggest that moisture return ahead of the dryline will be poor. Filtered diurnal heating will likely support sufficient boundary-layer mixing to promote RH reductions into the teens and 20s and 15-25 mph winds ahead of the dryline. Forecast guidance typically under mixes the boundary layer in these regime, resulting in more widespread elevated/critical fire weather conditions than otherwise predicted. As such, the Elevated/Critical risk areas have been expanded to account for this bias. ..Moore.. 03/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected today across parts of the southern High Plains and into western Oklahoma. More broadly, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected across much of the southern and central Plains where fuels remain critical dry after minimal rainfall over the past week. 05 UTC surface observations show surface pressure falls across eastern CO/western KS as a surface low begins to organized ahead of an approaching upper-level trough. Rapid cyclogenesis is anticipated through the afternoon across northwest KS, resulting in a robust low-level mass response across the Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Recent surface observations show 5-15 F dewpoints in place across southeast NM and southwest TX. The 00z MAF sounding sampled even drier air within the residual boundary layer that will quickly mix to the surface by early afternoon. Widespread 25-30 mph gradient winds are expected across much of the southern High Plains with sustained 30-35 mph winds likely under the low-level thermal ridge due to a combination of terrain enhancements along/off the Caprock and maximized boundary-layer mixing. The Extremely Critical risk area aligns with the forecast location of the low-level thermal ridge axis by late afternoon to the west of the dryline. Latest guidance continues to suggest that the dryline will remain across western OK into northwest TX, but extreme/near-extreme fire weather conditions may spread further east if guidance is under-mixing the eastward progression of this boundary. Winds are expected to strengthen slightly and shift from southwest to westerly around/after 21 UTC as a Pacific cold front pushes into the southern High Plains in tandem with the mid-level jet. The combination of increasing wind gusts (possibly up to 50-60 mph) and the directional change may support rapid fire spread with any ongoing fires. ...Central/Eastern TX, OK, KS into MO... To the east of the dryline, a broad swath of 15-25 mph winds is expected across central TX, OK, KS, and adjacent portions of MO. Shallow low-level moisture along the TX Coastal Plain and dewpoints in the 40s off the Gulf coast suggest that moisture return ahead of the dryline will be poor. Filtered diurnal heating will likely support sufficient boundary-layer mixing to promote RH reductions into the teens and 20s and 15-25 mph winds ahead of the dryline. Forecast guidance typically under mixes the boundary layer in these regime, resulting in more widespread elevated/critical fire weather conditions than otherwise predicted. As such, the Elevated/Critical risk areas have been expanded to account for this bias. ..Moore.. 03/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected today across parts of the southern High Plains and into western Oklahoma. More broadly, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected across much of the southern and central Plains where fuels remain critical dry after minimal rainfall over the past week. 05 UTC surface observations show surface pressure falls across eastern CO/western KS as a surface low begins to organized ahead of an approaching upper-level trough. Rapid cyclogenesis is anticipated through the afternoon across northwest KS, resulting in a robust low-level mass response across the Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Recent surface observations show 5-15 F dewpoints in place across southeast NM and southwest TX. The 00z MAF sounding sampled even drier air within the residual boundary layer that will quickly mix to the surface by early afternoon. Widespread 25-30 mph gradient winds are expected across much of the southern High Plains with sustained 30-35 mph winds likely under the low-level thermal ridge due to a combination of terrain enhancements along/off the Caprock and maximized boundary-layer mixing. The Extremely Critical risk area aligns with the forecast location of the low-level thermal ridge axis by late afternoon to the west of the dryline. Latest guidance continues to suggest that the dryline will remain across western OK into northwest TX, but extreme/near-extreme fire weather conditions may spread further east if guidance is under-mixing the eastward progression of this boundary. Winds are expected to strengthen slightly and shift from southwest to westerly around/after 21 UTC as a Pacific cold front pushes into the southern High Plains in tandem with the mid-level jet. The combination of increasing wind gusts (possibly up to 50-60 mph) and the directional change may support rapid fire spread with any ongoing fires. ...Central/Eastern TX, OK, KS into MO... To the east of the dryline, a broad swath of 15-25 mph winds is expected across central TX, OK, KS, and adjacent portions of MO. Shallow low-level moisture along the TX Coastal Plain and dewpoints in the 40s off the Gulf coast suggest that moisture return ahead of the dryline will be poor. Filtered diurnal heating will likely support sufficient boundary-layer mixing to promote RH reductions into the teens and 20s and 15-25 mph winds ahead of the dryline. Forecast guidance typically under mixes the boundary layer in these regime, resulting in more widespread elevated/critical fire weather conditions than otherwise predicted. As such, the Elevated/Critical risk areas have been expanded to account for this bias. ..Moore.. 03/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected today across parts of the southern High Plains and into western Oklahoma. More broadly, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected across much of the southern and central Plains where fuels remain critical dry after minimal rainfall over the past week. 05 UTC surface observations show surface pressure falls across eastern CO/western KS as a surface low begins to organized ahead of an approaching upper-level trough. Rapid cyclogenesis is anticipated through the afternoon across northwest KS, resulting in a robust low-level mass response across the Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Recent surface observations show 5-15 F dewpoints in place across southeast NM and southwest TX. The 00z MAF sounding sampled even drier air within the residual boundary layer that will quickly mix to the surface by early afternoon. Widespread 25-30 mph gradient winds are expected across much of the southern High Plains with sustained 30-35 mph winds likely under the low-level thermal ridge due to a combination of terrain enhancements along/off the Caprock and maximized boundary-layer mixing. The Extremely Critical risk area aligns with the forecast location of the low-level thermal ridge axis by late afternoon to the west of the dryline. Latest guidance continues to suggest that the dryline will remain across western OK into northwest TX, but extreme/near-extreme fire weather conditions may spread further east if guidance is under-mixing the eastward progression of this boundary. Winds are expected to strengthen slightly and shift from southwest to westerly around/after 21 UTC as a Pacific cold front pushes into the southern High Plains in tandem with the mid-level jet. The combination of increasing wind gusts (possibly up to 50-60 mph) and the directional change may support rapid fire spread with any ongoing fires. ...Central/Eastern TX, OK, KS into MO... To the east of the dryline, a broad swath of 15-25 mph winds is expected across central TX, OK, KS, and adjacent portions of MO. Shallow low-level moisture along the TX Coastal Plain and dewpoints in the 40s off the Gulf coast suggest that moisture return ahead of the dryline will be poor. Filtered diurnal heating will likely support sufficient boundary-layer mixing to promote RH reductions into the teens and 20s and 15-25 mph winds ahead of the dryline. Forecast guidance typically under mixes the boundary layer in these regime, resulting in more widespread elevated/critical fire weather conditions than otherwise predicted. As such, the Elevated/Critical risk areas have been expanded to account for this bias. ..Moore.. 03/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected today across parts of the southern High Plains and into western Oklahoma. More broadly, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected across much of the southern and central Plains where fuels remain critical dry after minimal rainfall over the past week. 05 UTC surface observations show surface pressure falls across eastern CO/western KS as a surface low begins to organized ahead of an approaching upper-level trough. Rapid cyclogenesis is anticipated through the afternoon across northwest KS, resulting in a robust low-level mass response across the Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Recent surface observations show 5-15 F dewpoints in place across southeast NM and southwest TX. The 00z MAF sounding sampled even drier air within the residual boundary layer that will quickly mix to the surface by early afternoon. Widespread 25-30 mph gradient winds are expected across much of the southern High Plains with sustained 30-35 mph winds likely under the low-level thermal ridge due to a combination of terrain enhancements along/off the Caprock and maximized boundary-layer mixing. The Extremely Critical risk area aligns with the forecast location of the low-level thermal ridge axis by late afternoon to the west of the dryline. Latest guidance continues to suggest that the dryline will remain across western OK into northwest TX, but extreme/near-extreme fire weather conditions may spread further east if guidance is under-mixing the eastward progression of this boundary. Winds are expected to strengthen slightly and shift from southwest to westerly around/after 21 UTC as a Pacific cold front pushes into the southern High Plains in tandem with the mid-level jet. The combination of increasing wind gusts (possibly up to 50-60 mph) and the directional change may support rapid fire spread with any ongoing fires. ...Central/Eastern TX, OK, KS into MO... To the east of the dryline, a broad swath of 15-25 mph winds is expected across central TX, OK, KS, and adjacent portions of MO. Shallow low-level moisture along the TX Coastal Plain and dewpoints in the 40s off the Gulf coast suggest that moisture return ahead of the dryline will be poor. Filtered diurnal heating will likely support sufficient boundary-layer mixing to promote RH reductions into the teens and 20s and 15-25 mph winds ahead of the dryline. Forecast guidance typically under mixes the boundary layer in these regime, resulting in more widespread elevated/critical fire weather conditions than otherwise predicted. As such, the Elevated/Critical risk areas have been expanded to account for this bias. ..Moore.. 03/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected today across parts of the southern High Plains and into western Oklahoma. More broadly, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected across much of the southern and central Plains where fuels remain critical dry after minimal rainfall over the past week. 05 UTC surface observations show surface pressure falls across eastern CO/western KS as a surface low begins to organized ahead of an approaching upper-level trough. Rapid cyclogenesis is anticipated through the afternoon across northwest KS, resulting in a robust low-level mass response across the Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Recent surface observations show 5-15 F dewpoints in place across southeast NM and southwest TX. The 00z MAF sounding sampled even drier air within the residual boundary layer that will quickly mix to the surface by early afternoon. Widespread 25-30 mph gradient winds are expected across much of the southern High Plains with sustained 30-35 mph winds likely under the low-level thermal ridge due to a combination of terrain enhancements along/off the Caprock and maximized boundary-layer mixing. The Extremely Critical risk area aligns with the forecast location of the low-level thermal ridge axis by late afternoon to the west of the dryline. Latest guidance continues to suggest that the dryline will remain across western OK into northwest TX, but extreme/near-extreme fire weather conditions may spread further east if guidance is under-mixing the eastward progression of this boundary. Winds are expected to strengthen slightly and shift from southwest to westerly around/after 21 UTC as a Pacific cold front pushes into the southern High Plains in tandem with the mid-level jet. The combination of increasing wind gusts (possibly up to 50-60 mph) and the directional change may support rapid fire spread with any ongoing fires. ...Central/Eastern TX, OK, KS into MO... To the east of the dryline, a broad swath of 15-25 mph winds is expected across central TX, OK, KS, and adjacent portions of MO. Shallow low-level moisture along the TX Coastal Plain and dewpoints in the 40s off the Gulf coast suggest that moisture return ahead of the dryline will be poor. Filtered diurnal heating will likely support sufficient boundary-layer mixing to promote RH reductions into the teens and 20s and 15-25 mph winds ahead of the dryline. Forecast guidance typically under mixes the boundary layer in these regime, resulting in more widespread elevated/critical fire weather conditions than otherwise predicted. As such, the Elevated/Critical risk areas have been expanded to account for this bias. ..Moore.. 03/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday across parts of eastern Illinois and western Indiana from mid-afternoon to early evening. Severe gusts and hail will be the primary threats. ...Upper Midwest/Lower Ohio Valley/Tennessee Valley... A broad cyclonic flow pattern will be in place over much of the continental U.S. on Wednesday. At the mid-levels, a trough will move from the central Plains into the Ozarks, as southwest flow strengthens over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. At the start of the period, a cluster of thunderstorms associated with an isolated large hail threat, will be ongoing over parts of Iowa and southern Wisconsin. At the surface, a low will move eastward into northern Illinois by afternoon, as low-level moisture increases across the mid Mississippi Valley. A north-to-south corridor with surface dewpoints in the 50s F will setup from southeast Missouri into south-central Illinois. A 50 to 60 knot low-level jet will consolidate over the extreme western portion of the lower Ohio Valley. Thunderstorms appear likely to initiate during the mid afternoon, along and near the moist axis, and to the west of the low-level jet. These storms will move eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys in the late afternoon and early evening. Although instability will remain weak along the moist axis, organized cells could develop across eastern Illinois and western Indiana within an area of strong large-scale ascent. Forecast soundings in eastern Illinois by late afternoon have MUCAPE peaking in the 400 to 600 J/kg range, with very strong deep-layer shear in excess of 80 knots. Cells that can persist in this environment could produce severe gusts and hail. ...Central Gulf Coast States... Cyclonically-curved mid-level southwest flow will be in place across much of the Southeast on Wednesday. The entrance region of a 90 to 100 mid-level jet will overspread the Ark-La-Tex, as a cold front moves eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the upper 50s and lower 60s F. During the late afternoon, isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop just ahead of the front in an area of focused low-level convergence from north-central Mississippi into northwest Alabama. Forecast soundings in north-central Mississippi at 00Z/Thursday have MUCAPE around 500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear near 70 knot. This could be enough for an isolated severe threat associated with the stronger multicells, and perhaps a rotating storm. Marginally severe gusts and hail will be possible. ..Broyles.. 03/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday across parts of eastern Illinois and western Indiana from mid-afternoon to early evening. Severe gusts and hail will be the primary threats. ...Upper Midwest/Lower Ohio Valley/Tennessee Valley... A broad cyclonic flow pattern will be in place over much of the continental U.S. on Wednesday. At the mid-levels, a trough will move from the central Plains into the Ozarks, as southwest flow strengthens over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. At the start of the period, a cluster of thunderstorms associated with an isolated large hail threat, will be ongoing over parts of Iowa and southern Wisconsin. At the surface, a low will move eastward into northern Illinois by afternoon, as low-level moisture increases across the mid Mississippi Valley. A north-to-south corridor with surface dewpoints in the 50s F will setup from southeast Missouri into south-central Illinois. A 50 to 60 knot low-level jet will consolidate over the extreme western portion of the lower Ohio Valley. Thunderstorms appear likely to initiate during the mid afternoon, along and near the moist axis, and to the west of the low-level jet. These storms will move eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys in the late afternoon and early evening. Although instability will remain weak along the moist axis, organized cells could develop across eastern Illinois and western Indiana within an area of strong large-scale ascent. Forecast soundings in eastern Illinois by late afternoon have MUCAPE peaking in the 400 to 600 J/kg range, with very strong deep-layer shear in excess of 80 knots. Cells that can persist in this environment could produce severe gusts and hail. ...Central Gulf Coast States... Cyclonically-curved mid-level southwest flow will be in place across much of the Southeast on Wednesday. The entrance region of a 90 to 100 mid-level jet will overspread the Ark-La-Tex, as a cold front moves eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the upper 50s and lower 60s F. During the late afternoon, isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop just ahead of the front in an area of focused low-level convergence from north-central Mississippi into northwest Alabama. Forecast soundings in north-central Mississippi at 00Z/Thursday have MUCAPE around 500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear near 70 knot. This could be enough for an isolated severe threat associated with the stronger multicells, and perhaps a rotating storm. Marginally severe gusts and hail will be possible. ..Broyles.. 03/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday across parts of eastern Illinois and western Indiana from mid-afternoon to early evening. Severe gusts and hail will be the primary threats. ...Upper Midwest/Lower Ohio Valley/Tennessee Valley... A broad cyclonic flow pattern will be in place over much of the continental U.S. on Wednesday. At the mid-levels, a trough will move from the central Plains into the Ozarks, as southwest flow strengthens over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. At the start of the period, a cluster of thunderstorms associated with an isolated large hail threat, will be ongoing over parts of Iowa and southern Wisconsin. At the surface, a low will move eastward into northern Illinois by afternoon, as low-level moisture increases across the mid Mississippi Valley. A north-to-south corridor with surface dewpoints in the 50s F will setup from southeast Missouri into south-central Illinois. A 50 to 60 knot low-level jet will consolidate over the extreme western portion of the lower Ohio Valley. Thunderstorms appear likely to initiate during the mid afternoon, along and near the moist axis, and to the west of the low-level jet. These storms will move eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys in the late afternoon and early evening. Although instability will remain weak along the moist axis, organized cells could develop across eastern Illinois and western Indiana within an area of strong large-scale ascent. Forecast soundings in eastern Illinois by late afternoon have MUCAPE peaking in the 400 to 600 J/kg range, with very strong deep-layer shear in excess of 80 knots. Cells that can persist in this environment could produce severe gusts and hail. ...Central Gulf Coast States... Cyclonically-curved mid-level southwest flow will be in place across much of the Southeast on Wednesday. The entrance region of a 90 to 100 mid-level jet will overspread the Ark-La-Tex, as a cold front moves eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the upper 50s and lower 60s F. During the late afternoon, isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop just ahead of the front in an area of focused low-level convergence from north-central Mississippi into northwest Alabama. Forecast soundings in north-central Mississippi at 00Z/Thursday have MUCAPE around 500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear near 70 knot. This could be enough for an isolated severe threat associated with the stronger multicells, and perhaps a rotating storm. Marginally severe gusts and hail will be possible. ..Broyles.. 03/18/2025 Read more