Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected again on Thursday for parts of the southern High Plains. Surface high pressure is expected to build into the south-central CONUS through the day Thursday in the wake of the strong surface low currently over the Plains and its attendant cold front. Meanwhile aloft, a relatively low-amplitude upper wave will begin impinging on the northern Rockies, resulting in modest lee troughing from the northern to central High Plains. West/southwesterly downslope winds are expected to develop to the west of the lee trough, resulting in dry/windy conditions from eastern MT and WY southward into NM and southwest TX. Downslope warming/drying will support RH values in the teens across much of the High Plains with the lowest RH (5-15%) expected across eastern NM given antecedent dry conditions. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph appear likely across northeastern NM where fuels remain dry and limited precipitation is expected over the next 48 hours. Weaker winds with southward extent will limit the potential for critical conditions, but winds in the between 15-20 mph will still support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Further north into the central High Plains, elevated to critical meteorological conditions are likely, but ongoing rain/snow will likely mitigate fuel dryness for the next few days. ..Moore.. 03/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected again on Thursday for parts of the southern High Plains. Surface high pressure is expected to build into the south-central CONUS through the day Thursday in the wake of the strong surface low currently over the Plains and its attendant cold front. Meanwhile aloft, a relatively low-amplitude upper wave will begin impinging on the northern Rockies, resulting in modest lee troughing from the northern to central High Plains. West/southwesterly downslope winds are expected to develop to the west of the lee trough, resulting in dry/windy conditions from eastern MT and WY southward into NM and southwest TX. Downslope warming/drying will support RH values in the teens across much of the High Plains with the lowest RH (5-15%) expected across eastern NM given antecedent dry conditions. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph appear likely across northeastern NM where fuels remain dry and limited precipitation is expected over the next 48 hours. Weaker winds with southward extent will limit the potential for critical conditions, but winds in the between 15-20 mph will still support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Further north into the central High Plains, elevated to critical meteorological conditions are likely, but ongoing rain/snow will likely mitigate fuel dryness for the next few days. ..Moore.. 03/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected to linger across the southern High Plains into the Rio Grande Valley where fuels remain critically dry. More widespread, but less intense, fire weather concerns are likely across parts of the upper Ohio River Valley. 05 UTC surface observations show an intense cyclone maturing across the central Plains. This feature is expected to lift to the northeast over the next 24 hours with cold front trailing southward into the lower MS River Valley. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected within the post-frontal regime across the southern Plains with more localized fire weather concerns ahead of the low within a dry return flow regime. ...Southern Plains... Widespread northwesterly winds are expected from eastern NM into TX, OK, and western LA this afternoon within the post-frontal regime. Sustained winds are expected to be between 20-25 mph across OK in closer proximity to the surface low and across southern TX where a belt of 30-40 mph flow near the top of the boundary layer is expected to mix to the surface by early afternoon. Cooling temperatures across eastern OK should sufficiently modulate RH reductions to limit the fire weather threat, but progressively drier air with southward extent will support afternoon minimum RH values between 10-25%. A swath of critical fire weather conditions is expected from southeast NM into the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Valley where confidence in sub-20% RH and sustained 20 mph winds is greatest. Elsewhere, elevated conditions are expected with transient critical conditions possible. More transient fire weather conditions are possible further east across AR/LA immediately behind the front; however, recent precipitation over the region precludes additional highlights. ...Upper OH River Valley... As of 05 UTC, southerly winds are already increasing to around 15 mph ahead of the approaching surface low across the OH River Valley. Moisture return ahead of the low is expected to be confined to a narrow swath immediately ahead of the Pacific Front. Limited moisture return over the upper OH River Valley, combined with downslope flow off the northern Appalachians, will promote areas of elevated fire weather conditions. The fire weather threat will be greatest for areas that received relatively limited rainfall over the past 3 days, which is roughly depicted by the current risk area. ..Moore.. 03/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected to linger across the southern High Plains into the Rio Grande Valley where fuels remain critically dry. More widespread, but less intense, fire weather concerns are likely across parts of the upper Ohio River Valley. 05 UTC surface observations show an intense cyclone maturing across the central Plains. This feature is expected to lift to the northeast over the next 24 hours with cold front trailing southward into the lower MS River Valley. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected within the post-frontal regime across the southern Plains with more localized fire weather concerns ahead of the low within a dry return flow regime. ...Southern Plains... Widespread northwesterly winds are expected from eastern NM into TX, OK, and western LA this afternoon within the post-frontal regime. Sustained winds are expected to be between 20-25 mph across OK in closer proximity to the surface low and across southern TX where a belt of 30-40 mph flow near the top of the boundary layer is expected to mix to the surface by early afternoon. Cooling temperatures across eastern OK should sufficiently modulate RH reductions to limit the fire weather threat, but progressively drier air with southward extent will support afternoon minimum RH values between 10-25%. A swath of critical fire weather conditions is expected from southeast NM into the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Valley where confidence in sub-20% RH and sustained 20 mph winds is greatest. Elsewhere, elevated conditions are expected with transient critical conditions possible. More transient fire weather conditions are possible further east across AR/LA immediately behind the front; however, recent precipitation over the region precludes additional highlights. ...Upper OH River Valley... As of 05 UTC, southerly winds are already increasing to around 15 mph ahead of the approaching surface low across the OH River Valley. Moisture return ahead of the low is expected to be confined to a narrow swath immediately ahead of the Pacific Front. Limited moisture return over the upper OH River Valley, combined with downslope flow off the northern Appalachians, will promote areas of elevated fire weather conditions. The fire weather threat will be greatest for areas that received relatively limited rainfall over the past 3 days, which is roughly depicted by the current risk area. ..Moore.. 03/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected to linger across the southern High Plains into the Rio Grande Valley where fuels remain critically dry. More widespread, but less intense, fire weather concerns are likely across parts of the upper Ohio River Valley. 05 UTC surface observations show an intense cyclone maturing across the central Plains. This feature is expected to lift to the northeast over the next 24 hours with cold front trailing southward into the lower MS River Valley. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected within the post-frontal regime across the southern Plains with more localized fire weather concerns ahead of the low within a dry return flow regime. ...Southern Plains... Widespread northwesterly winds are expected from eastern NM into TX, OK, and western LA this afternoon within the post-frontal regime. Sustained winds are expected to be between 20-25 mph across OK in closer proximity to the surface low and across southern TX where a belt of 30-40 mph flow near the top of the boundary layer is expected to mix to the surface by early afternoon. Cooling temperatures across eastern OK should sufficiently modulate RH reductions to limit the fire weather threat, but progressively drier air with southward extent will support afternoon minimum RH values between 10-25%. A swath of critical fire weather conditions is expected from southeast NM into the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Valley where confidence in sub-20% RH and sustained 20 mph winds is greatest. Elsewhere, elevated conditions are expected with transient critical conditions possible. More transient fire weather conditions are possible further east across AR/LA immediately behind the front; however, recent precipitation over the region precludes additional highlights. ...Upper OH River Valley... As of 05 UTC, southerly winds are already increasing to around 15 mph ahead of the approaching surface low across the OH River Valley. Moisture return ahead of the low is expected to be confined to a narrow swath immediately ahead of the Pacific Front. Limited moisture return over the upper OH River Valley, combined with downslope flow off the northern Appalachians, will promote areas of elevated fire weather conditions. The fire weather threat will be greatest for areas that received relatively limited rainfall over the past 3 days, which is roughly depicted by the current risk area. ..Moore.. 03/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected to linger across the southern High Plains into the Rio Grande Valley where fuels remain critically dry. More widespread, but less intense, fire weather concerns are likely across parts of the upper Ohio River Valley. 05 UTC surface observations show an intense cyclone maturing across the central Plains. This feature is expected to lift to the northeast over the next 24 hours with cold front trailing southward into the lower MS River Valley. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected within the post-frontal regime across the southern Plains with more localized fire weather concerns ahead of the low within a dry return flow regime. ...Southern Plains... Widespread northwesterly winds are expected from eastern NM into TX, OK, and western LA this afternoon within the post-frontal regime. Sustained winds are expected to be between 20-25 mph across OK in closer proximity to the surface low and across southern TX where a belt of 30-40 mph flow near the top of the boundary layer is expected to mix to the surface by early afternoon. Cooling temperatures across eastern OK should sufficiently modulate RH reductions to limit the fire weather threat, but progressively drier air with southward extent will support afternoon minimum RH values between 10-25%. A swath of critical fire weather conditions is expected from southeast NM into the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Valley where confidence in sub-20% RH and sustained 20 mph winds is greatest. Elsewhere, elevated conditions are expected with transient critical conditions possible. More transient fire weather conditions are possible further east across AR/LA immediately behind the front; however, recent precipitation over the region precludes additional highlights. ...Upper OH River Valley... As of 05 UTC, southerly winds are already increasing to around 15 mph ahead of the approaching surface low across the OH River Valley. Moisture return ahead of the low is expected to be confined to a narrow swath immediately ahead of the Pacific Front. Limited moisture return over the upper OH River Valley, combined with downslope flow off the northern Appalachians, will promote areas of elevated fire weather conditions. The fire weather threat will be greatest for areas that received relatively limited rainfall over the past 3 days, which is roughly depicted by the current risk area. ..Moore.. 03/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected to linger across the southern High Plains into the Rio Grande Valley where fuels remain critically dry. More widespread, but less intense, fire weather concerns are likely across parts of the upper Ohio River Valley. 05 UTC surface observations show an intense cyclone maturing across the central Plains. This feature is expected to lift to the northeast over the next 24 hours with cold front trailing southward into the lower MS River Valley. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected within the post-frontal regime across the southern Plains with more localized fire weather concerns ahead of the low within a dry return flow regime. ...Southern Plains... Widespread northwesterly winds are expected from eastern NM into TX, OK, and western LA this afternoon within the post-frontal regime. Sustained winds are expected to be between 20-25 mph across OK in closer proximity to the surface low and across southern TX where a belt of 30-40 mph flow near the top of the boundary layer is expected to mix to the surface by early afternoon. Cooling temperatures across eastern OK should sufficiently modulate RH reductions to limit the fire weather threat, but progressively drier air with southward extent will support afternoon minimum RH values between 10-25%. A swath of critical fire weather conditions is expected from southeast NM into the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Valley where confidence in sub-20% RH and sustained 20 mph winds is greatest. Elsewhere, elevated conditions are expected with transient critical conditions possible. More transient fire weather conditions are possible further east across AR/LA immediately behind the front; however, recent precipitation over the region precludes additional highlights. ...Upper OH River Valley... As of 05 UTC, southerly winds are already increasing to around 15 mph ahead of the approaching surface low across the OH River Valley. Moisture return ahead of the low is expected to be confined to a narrow swath immediately ahead of the Pacific Front. Limited moisture return over the upper OH River Valley, combined with downslope flow off the northern Appalachians, will promote areas of elevated fire weather conditions. The fire weather threat will be greatest for areas that received relatively limited rainfall over the past 3 days, which is roughly depicted by the current risk area. ..Moore.. 03/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected to linger across the southern High Plains into the Rio Grande Valley where fuels remain critically dry. More widespread, but less intense, fire weather concerns are likely across parts of the upper Ohio River Valley. 05 UTC surface observations show an intense cyclone maturing across the central Plains. This feature is expected to lift to the northeast over the next 24 hours with cold front trailing southward into the lower MS River Valley. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected within the post-frontal regime across the southern Plains with more localized fire weather concerns ahead of the low within a dry return flow regime. ...Southern Plains... Widespread northwesterly winds are expected from eastern NM into TX, OK, and western LA this afternoon within the post-frontal regime. Sustained winds are expected to be between 20-25 mph across OK in closer proximity to the surface low and across southern TX where a belt of 30-40 mph flow near the top of the boundary layer is expected to mix to the surface by early afternoon. Cooling temperatures across eastern OK should sufficiently modulate RH reductions to limit the fire weather threat, but progressively drier air with southward extent will support afternoon minimum RH values between 10-25%. A swath of critical fire weather conditions is expected from southeast NM into the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Valley where confidence in sub-20% RH and sustained 20 mph winds is greatest. Elsewhere, elevated conditions are expected with transient critical conditions possible. More transient fire weather conditions are possible further east across AR/LA immediately behind the front; however, recent precipitation over the region precludes additional highlights. ...Upper OH River Valley... As of 05 UTC, southerly winds are already increasing to around 15 mph ahead of the approaching surface low across the OH River Valley. Moisture return ahead of the low is expected to be confined to a narrow swath immediately ahead of the Pacific Front. Limited moisture return over the upper OH River Valley, combined with downslope flow off the northern Appalachians, will promote areas of elevated fire weather conditions. The fire weather threat will be greatest for areas that received relatively limited rainfall over the past 3 days, which is roughly depicted by the current risk area. ..Moore.. 03/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected to linger across the southern High Plains into the Rio Grande Valley where fuels remain critically dry. More widespread, but less intense, fire weather concerns are likely across parts of the upper Ohio River Valley. 05 UTC surface observations show an intense cyclone maturing across the central Plains. This feature is expected to lift to the northeast over the next 24 hours with cold front trailing southward into the lower MS River Valley. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected within the post-frontal regime across the southern Plains with more localized fire weather concerns ahead of the low within a dry return flow regime. ...Southern Plains... Widespread northwesterly winds are expected from eastern NM into TX, OK, and western LA this afternoon within the post-frontal regime. Sustained winds are expected to be between 20-25 mph across OK in closer proximity to the surface low and across southern TX where a belt of 30-40 mph flow near the top of the boundary layer is expected to mix to the surface by early afternoon. Cooling temperatures across eastern OK should sufficiently modulate RH reductions to limit the fire weather threat, but progressively drier air with southward extent will support afternoon minimum RH values between 10-25%. A swath of critical fire weather conditions is expected from southeast NM into the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Valley where confidence in sub-20% RH and sustained 20 mph winds is greatest. Elsewhere, elevated conditions are expected with transient critical conditions possible. More transient fire weather conditions are possible further east across AR/LA immediately behind the front; however, recent precipitation over the region precludes additional highlights. ...Upper OH River Valley... As of 05 UTC, southerly winds are already increasing to around 15 mph ahead of the approaching surface low across the OH River Valley. Moisture return ahead of the low is expected to be confined to a narrow swath immediately ahead of the Pacific Front. Limited moisture return over the upper OH River Valley, combined with downslope flow off the northern Appalachians, will promote areas of elevated fire weather conditions. The fire weather threat will be greatest for areas that received relatively limited rainfall over the past 3 days, which is roughly depicted by the current risk area. ..Moore.. 03/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected to linger across the southern High Plains into the Rio Grande Valley where fuels remain critically dry. More widespread, but less intense, fire weather concerns are likely across parts of the upper Ohio River Valley. 05 UTC surface observations show an intense cyclone maturing across the central Plains. This feature is expected to lift to the northeast over the next 24 hours with cold front trailing southward into the lower MS River Valley. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected within the post-frontal regime across the southern Plains with more localized fire weather concerns ahead of the low within a dry return flow regime. ...Southern Plains... Widespread northwesterly winds are expected from eastern NM into TX, OK, and western LA this afternoon within the post-frontal regime. Sustained winds are expected to be between 20-25 mph across OK in closer proximity to the surface low and across southern TX where a belt of 30-40 mph flow near the top of the boundary layer is expected to mix to the surface by early afternoon. Cooling temperatures across eastern OK should sufficiently modulate RH reductions to limit the fire weather threat, but progressively drier air with southward extent will support afternoon minimum RH values between 10-25%. A swath of critical fire weather conditions is expected from southeast NM into the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Valley where confidence in sub-20% RH and sustained 20 mph winds is greatest. Elsewhere, elevated conditions are expected with transient critical conditions possible. More transient fire weather conditions are possible further east across AR/LA immediately behind the front; however, recent precipitation over the region precludes additional highlights. ...Upper OH River Valley... As of 05 UTC, southerly winds are already increasing to around 15 mph ahead of the approaching surface low across the OH River Valley. Moisture return ahead of the low is expected to be confined to a narrow swath immediately ahead of the Pacific Front. Limited moisture return over the upper OH River Valley, combined with downslope flow off the northern Appalachians, will promote areas of elevated fire weather conditions. The fire weather threat will be greatest for areas that received relatively limited rainfall over the past 3 days, which is roughly depicted by the current risk area. ..Moore.. 03/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected to linger across the southern High Plains into the Rio Grande Valley where fuels remain critically dry. More widespread, but less intense, fire weather concerns are likely across parts of the upper Ohio River Valley. 05 UTC surface observations show an intense cyclone maturing across the central Plains. This feature is expected to lift to the northeast over the next 24 hours with cold front trailing southward into the lower MS River Valley. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected within the post-frontal regime across the southern Plains with more localized fire weather concerns ahead of the low within a dry return flow regime. ...Southern Plains... Widespread northwesterly winds are expected from eastern NM into TX, OK, and western LA this afternoon within the post-frontal regime. Sustained winds are expected to be between 20-25 mph across OK in closer proximity to the surface low and across southern TX where a belt of 30-40 mph flow near the top of the boundary layer is expected to mix to the surface by early afternoon. Cooling temperatures across eastern OK should sufficiently modulate RH reductions to limit the fire weather threat, but progressively drier air with southward extent will support afternoon minimum RH values between 10-25%. A swath of critical fire weather conditions is expected from southeast NM into the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Valley where confidence in sub-20% RH and sustained 20 mph winds is greatest. Elsewhere, elevated conditions are expected with transient critical conditions possible. More transient fire weather conditions are possible further east across AR/LA immediately behind the front; however, recent precipitation over the region precludes additional highlights. ...Upper OH River Valley... As of 05 UTC, southerly winds are already increasing to around 15 mph ahead of the approaching surface low across the OH River Valley. Moisture return ahead of the low is expected to be confined to a narrow swath immediately ahead of the Pacific Front. Limited moisture return over the upper OH River Valley, combined with downslope flow off the northern Appalachians, will promote areas of elevated fire weather conditions. The fire weather threat will be greatest for areas that received relatively limited rainfall over the past 3 days, which is roughly depicted by the current risk area. ..Moore.. 03/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. A severe threat is not expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels on Thursday, a trough will move across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a fetch of southwest flow strengthens along the East Coast. At the surface, a pre-frontal trough will move across the Atlantic Coastal Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are expected to reach the 50s F across the Mid-Atlantic, where weak destabilization will occur. Forecast soundings near the moist axis Thursday afternoon in central Virginia have MUCAPE peaking around 250 J/kg. As the exit region of the mid-level jet passes by, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 80 to 90 knot range. Although thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic Thursday afternoon, the instability is expected to be too weak for a severe threat. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of a shortwave mid-level trough, across parts of the northern Rockies and northern High Plains. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Thursday and Thursday night. ..Broyles.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. A severe threat is not expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels on Thursday, a trough will move across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a fetch of southwest flow strengthens along the East Coast. At the surface, a pre-frontal trough will move across the Atlantic Coastal Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are expected to reach the 50s F across the Mid-Atlantic, where weak destabilization will occur. Forecast soundings near the moist axis Thursday afternoon in central Virginia have MUCAPE peaking around 250 J/kg. As the exit region of the mid-level jet passes by, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 80 to 90 knot range. Although thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic Thursday afternoon, the instability is expected to be too weak for a severe threat. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of a shortwave mid-level trough, across parts of the northern Rockies and northern High Plains. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Thursday and Thursday night. ..Broyles.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. A severe threat is not expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels on Thursday, a trough will move across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a fetch of southwest flow strengthens along the East Coast. At the surface, a pre-frontal trough will move across the Atlantic Coastal Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are expected to reach the 50s F across the Mid-Atlantic, where weak destabilization will occur. Forecast soundings near the moist axis Thursday afternoon in central Virginia have MUCAPE peaking around 250 J/kg. As the exit region of the mid-level jet passes by, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 80 to 90 knot range. Although thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic Thursday afternoon, the instability is expected to be too weak for a severe threat. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of a shortwave mid-level trough, across parts of the northern Rockies and northern High Plains. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Thursday and Thursday night. ..Broyles.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. A severe threat is not expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels on Thursday, a trough will move across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a fetch of southwest flow strengthens along the East Coast. At the surface, a pre-frontal trough will move across the Atlantic Coastal Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are expected to reach the 50s F across the Mid-Atlantic, where weak destabilization will occur. Forecast soundings near the moist axis Thursday afternoon in central Virginia have MUCAPE peaking around 250 J/kg. As the exit region of the mid-level jet passes by, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 80 to 90 knot range. Although thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic Thursday afternoon, the instability is expected to be too weak for a severe threat. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of a shortwave mid-level trough, across parts of the northern Rockies and northern High Plains. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Thursday and Thursday night. ..Broyles.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. A severe threat is not expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels on Thursday, a trough will move across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a fetch of southwest flow strengthens along the East Coast. At the surface, a pre-frontal trough will move across the Atlantic Coastal Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are expected to reach the 50s F across the Mid-Atlantic, where weak destabilization will occur. Forecast soundings near the moist axis Thursday afternoon in central Virginia have MUCAPE peaking around 250 J/kg. As the exit region of the mid-level jet passes by, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 80 to 90 knot range. Although thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic Thursday afternoon, the instability is expected to be too weak for a severe threat. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of a shortwave mid-level trough, across parts of the northern Rockies and northern High Plains. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Thursday and Thursday night. ..Broyles.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. A severe threat is not expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels on Thursday, a trough will move across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a fetch of southwest flow strengthens along the East Coast. At the surface, a pre-frontal trough will move across the Atlantic Coastal Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are expected to reach the 50s F across the Mid-Atlantic, where weak destabilization will occur. Forecast soundings near the moist axis Thursday afternoon in central Virginia have MUCAPE peaking around 250 J/kg. As the exit region of the mid-level jet passes by, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 80 to 90 knot range. Although thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic Thursday afternoon, the instability is expected to be too weak for a severe threat. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of a shortwave mid-level trough, across parts of the northern Rockies and northern High Plains. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Thursday and Thursday night. ..Broyles.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO FAR WESTERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday across parts of central Illinois to western Indiana from mid-afternoon to early evening. Several tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level low will move from northeast Kansas this morning to Lower Michigan by 12Z Thursday. A strong mid-level jet streak along the southeastern periphery of this area of low pressure will translate from northeast Oklahoma to central Illinois. Meanwhile a surface low within the left exit region of this upper-level jet will move from northeast Kansas to north-central Illinois. ...Central Illinois into north-central Illinois and western Indiana... A rapidly changing environment is forecast across Illinois today. Extensive cloudcover is expected across the state for much of the day as low-level moisture streams north within a narrow corridor ahead of the cold front. However, by mid to late afternoon, some clearing is expected which may allow for some brief heating and destabilization across central Illinois. In fact, the HRRR shows what appears to be a dryline by mid afternoon. Mid-level temperatures will be very cold (-22C at 500mb and -4C at 700mb) which will allow for rapid destabilization with only slight heating. Once destabilization begins ahead of the cold front/dry line, expect thunderstorm development. The wind profile across central and northern Illinois will support supercells, but the intensity of these supercells will be modulated by the instability. 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE will likely be sufficient for supercells capable of all severe weather hazards. However, if greater destabilization occurs, such as shown by the 00Z HRRR/ 03Z RAP, an even more volatile environment would be present. 56-57F dewpoints would support 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE which is very significant in the low-topped environment with an EL below 30kft. HRRR/RAP soundings show STP values around 2-3 with very favorable low-level hodograph shapes. Therefore, in the higher instability scenario, multiple tornadic supercells would be possible with the potential for strong (EF2+) tornadoes. While uncertainties remain regarding dewpoints and the amount of clearing/heating along/ahead of the front, an enhanced risk upgrade seems prudent given the expectation for several supercells capable of all hazards and the conditional potential for a more volatile environment. ...Southern Indiana southward to MS/AL... Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front across Indiana at the nose of the mid-level jet streak during the evening as rapid ascent and mid-level cooling erodes inhibition. Forecast sounding show an environment favorable for supercells capable of all severe weather hazards to persist across Indiana before eventually outrunning the instability somewhere near the Ohio border. Mid-level cooling will not be as great farther south across KY/TN and into MS/AL. However, greater low-level moisture (upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints) should compensate with a few scattered supercells possible with a primary threat of large hail and damaging wind gusts during the evening. ..Bentley.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO FAR WESTERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday across parts of central Illinois to western Indiana from mid-afternoon to early evening. Several tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level low will move from northeast Kansas this morning to Lower Michigan by 12Z Thursday. A strong mid-level jet streak along the southeastern periphery of this area of low pressure will translate from northeast Oklahoma to central Illinois. Meanwhile a surface low within the left exit region of this upper-level jet will move from northeast Kansas to north-central Illinois. ...Central Illinois into north-central Illinois and western Indiana... A rapidly changing environment is forecast across Illinois today. Extensive cloudcover is expected across the state for much of the day as low-level moisture streams north within a narrow corridor ahead of the cold front. However, by mid to late afternoon, some clearing is expected which may allow for some brief heating and destabilization across central Illinois. In fact, the HRRR shows what appears to be a dryline by mid afternoon. Mid-level temperatures will be very cold (-22C at 500mb and -4C at 700mb) which will allow for rapid destabilization with only slight heating. Once destabilization begins ahead of the cold front/dry line, expect thunderstorm development. The wind profile across central and northern Illinois will support supercells, but the intensity of these supercells will be modulated by the instability. 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE will likely be sufficient for supercells capable of all severe weather hazards. However, if greater destabilization occurs, such as shown by the 00Z HRRR/ 03Z RAP, an even more volatile environment would be present. 56-57F dewpoints would support 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE which is very significant in the low-topped environment with an EL below 30kft. HRRR/RAP soundings show STP values around 2-3 with very favorable low-level hodograph shapes. Therefore, in the higher instability scenario, multiple tornadic supercells would be possible with the potential for strong (EF2+) tornadoes. While uncertainties remain regarding dewpoints and the amount of clearing/heating along/ahead of the front, an enhanced risk upgrade seems prudent given the expectation for several supercells capable of all hazards and the conditional potential for a more volatile environment. ...Southern Indiana southward to MS/AL... Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front across Indiana at the nose of the mid-level jet streak during the evening as rapid ascent and mid-level cooling erodes inhibition. Forecast sounding show an environment favorable for supercells capable of all severe weather hazards to persist across Indiana before eventually outrunning the instability somewhere near the Ohio border. Mid-level cooling will not be as great farther south across KY/TN and into MS/AL. However, greater low-level moisture (upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints) should compensate with a few scattered supercells possible with a primary threat of large hail and damaging wind gusts during the evening. ..Bentley.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO FAR WESTERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday across parts of central Illinois to western Indiana from mid-afternoon to early evening. Several tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level low will move from northeast Kansas this morning to Lower Michigan by 12Z Thursday. A strong mid-level jet streak along the southeastern periphery of this area of low pressure will translate from northeast Oklahoma to central Illinois. Meanwhile a surface low within the left exit region of this upper-level jet will move from northeast Kansas to north-central Illinois. ...Central Illinois into north-central Illinois and western Indiana... A rapidly changing environment is forecast across Illinois today. Extensive cloudcover is expected across the state for much of the day as low-level moisture streams north within a narrow corridor ahead of the cold front. However, by mid to late afternoon, some clearing is expected which may allow for some brief heating and destabilization across central Illinois. In fact, the HRRR shows what appears to be a dryline by mid afternoon. Mid-level temperatures will be very cold (-22C at 500mb and -4C at 700mb) which will allow for rapid destabilization with only slight heating. Once destabilization begins ahead of the cold front/dry line, expect thunderstorm development. The wind profile across central and northern Illinois will support supercells, but the intensity of these supercells will be modulated by the instability. 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE will likely be sufficient for supercells capable of all severe weather hazards. However, if greater destabilization occurs, such as shown by the 00Z HRRR/ 03Z RAP, an even more volatile environment would be present. 56-57F dewpoints would support 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE which is very significant in the low-topped environment with an EL below 30kft. HRRR/RAP soundings show STP values around 2-3 with very favorable low-level hodograph shapes. Therefore, in the higher instability scenario, multiple tornadic supercells would be possible with the potential for strong (EF2+) tornadoes. While uncertainties remain regarding dewpoints and the amount of clearing/heating along/ahead of the front, an enhanced risk upgrade seems prudent given the expectation for several supercells capable of all hazards and the conditional potential for a more volatile environment. ...Southern Indiana southward to MS/AL... Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front across Indiana at the nose of the mid-level jet streak during the evening as rapid ascent and mid-level cooling erodes inhibition. Forecast sounding show an environment favorable for supercells capable of all severe weather hazards to persist across Indiana before eventually outrunning the instability somewhere near the Ohio border. Mid-level cooling will not be as great farther south across KY/TN and into MS/AL. However, greater low-level moisture (upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints) should compensate with a few scattered supercells possible with a primary threat of large hail and damaging wind gusts during the evening. ..Bentley.. 03/19/2025 Read more