Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening from central/northern Illinois to western Indiana. A few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...IL/IN this afternoon into early tonight... A deep (989 mb) cyclone near the northeast KS/northwest MO border will move northeastward to northern IL by this evening and Lower MI overnight, in conjunction with a deep midlevel trough and 100+ kt midlevel jet streak. Elevated convection is ongoing this morning in a zone of focused ascent with warm advection/frontogenesis across IA, where isolated large hail may occur with MUCAPE around 500 J/kg and steep midlevel lapse rates/cool midlevel temperatures. The warm sector of the cyclone is characterized by a narrow/modest corridor of returning moisture (low-mid 50s boundary-layer dewpoints) that will overspread MO/IL through the afternoon. Surface heating in cloud breaks, continued moisture advection and relatively cool midlevel temperatures will all contribute to warm sector destabilization (MLCAPE 500-750 J/kg) through the afternoon across IL. Surface-based thunderstorm development will become probable by early-mid afternoon in a broken band along and just ahead of a remnant dryline moving from MO into IL, and storms will subsequently move eastward/northeastward into IN by early tonight before weakening gradually. The deeper buoyancy profiles will be on the cyclonic side of the midlevel jet, where 500 mb temperatures will be < -20 C. Forecast wind profiles suggest supercell potential with long hodographs (effective bulk shear vectors >50 kt), and sufficient low-level hodograph curvature/shear for tornado potential. The primary uncertainty centers of the degree of low-level moistening/destabilization, and the current forecast represents a conditional/reasonable worst case scenario. Otherwise, occasional large hail (1-1.5 inches in diameter) will be possible in IL this afternoon/evening, and the threat for damaging gusts (60-70 mph) and a couple of tornadoes will persist into IN through early tonight. ...TN/MS/AL this afternoon/evening... Boundary-layer dewpoints will slowly increase to the upper 50s/lower 60s ahead of the surface wind shift moving across AR/LA this afternoon. Forcing for ascent should be sufficient to remove the cap, allowing some deep convection in a broken band this afternoon/evening. Buoyancy will be relatively weak compared to the vertical shear, so it will be difficult to get sustained severe storms and isolated wind damage will be the most probable threat. ..Thompson/Dean.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening from central/northern Illinois to western Indiana. A few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...IL/IN this afternoon into early tonight... A deep (989 mb) cyclone near the northeast KS/northwest MO border will move northeastward to northern IL by this evening and Lower MI overnight, in conjunction with a deep midlevel trough and 100+ kt midlevel jet streak. Elevated convection is ongoing this morning in a zone of focused ascent with warm advection/frontogenesis across IA, where isolated large hail may occur with MUCAPE around 500 J/kg and steep midlevel lapse rates/cool midlevel temperatures. The warm sector of the cyclone is characterized by a narrow/modest corridor of returning moisture (low-mid 50s boundary-layer dewpoints) that will overspread MO/IL through the afternoon. Surface heating in cloud breaks, continued moisture advection and relatively cool midlevel temperatures will all contribute to warm sector destabilization (MLCAPE 500-750 J/kg) through the afternoon across IL. Surface-based thunderstorm development will become probable by early-mid afternoon in a broken band along and just ahead of a remnant dryline moving from MO into IL, and storms will subsequently move eastward/northeastward into IN by early tonight before weakening gradually. The deeper buoyancy profiles will be on the cyclonic side of the midlevel jet, where 500 mb temperatures will be < -20 C. Forecast wind profiles suggest supercell potential with long hodographs (effective bulk shear vectors >50 kt), and sufficient low-level hodograph curvature/shear for tornado potential. The primary uncertainty centers of the degree of low-level moistening/destabilization, and the current forecast represents a conditional/reasonable worst case scenario. Otherwise, occasional large hail (1-1.5 inches in diameter) will be possible in IL this afternoon/evening, and the threat for damaging gusts (60-70 mph) and a couple of tornadoes will persist into IN through early tonight. ...TN/MS/AL this afternoon/evening... Boundary-layer dewpoints will slowly increase to the upper 50s/lower 60s ahead of the surface wind shift moving across AR/LA this afternoon. Forcing for ascent should be sufficient to remove the cap, allowing some deep convection in a broken band this afternoon/evening. Buoyancy will be relatively weak compared to the vertical shear, so it will be difficult to get sustained severe storms and isolated wind damage will be the most probable threat. ..Thompson/Dean.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening from central/northern Illinois to western Indiana. A few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...IL/IN this afternoon into early tonight... A deep (989 mb) cyclone near the northeast KS/northwest MO border will move northeastward to northern IL by this evening and Lower MI overnight, in conjunction with a deep midlevel trough and 100+ kt midlevel jet streak. Elevated convection is ongoing this morning in a zone of focused ascent with warm advection/frontogenesis across IA, where isolated large hail may occur with MUCAPE around 500 J/kg and steep midlevel lapse rates/cool midlevel temperatures. The warm sector of the cyclone is characterized by a narrow/modest corridor of returning moisture (low-mid 50s boundary-layer dewpoints) that will overspread MO/IL through the afternoon. Surface heating in cloud breaks, continued moisture advection and relatively cool midlevel temperatures will all contribute to warm sector destabilization (MLCAPE 500-750 J/kg) through the afternoon across IL. Surface-based thunderstorm development will become probable by early-mid afternoon in a broken band along and just ahead of a remnant dryline moving from MO into IL, and storms will subsequently move eastward/northeastward into IN by early tonight before weakening gradually. The deeper buoyancy profiles will be on the cyclonic side of the midlevel jet, where 500 mb temperatures will be < -20 C. Forecast wind profiles suggest supercell potential with long hodographs (effective bulk shear vectors >50 kt), and sufficient low-level hodograph curvature/shear for tornado potential. The primary uncertainty centers of the degree of low-level moistening/destabilization, and the current forecast represents a conditional/reasonable worst case scenario. Otherwise, occasional large hail (1-1.5 inches in diameter) will be possible in IL this afternoon/evening, and the threat for damaging gusts (60-70 mph) and a couple of tornadoes will persist into IN through early tonight. ...TN/MS/AL this afternoon/evening... Boundary-layer dewpoints will slowly increase to the upper 50s/lower 60s ahead of the surface wind shift moving across AR/LA this afternoon. Forcing for ascent should be sufficient to remove the cap, allowing some deep convection in a broken band this afternoon/evening. Buoyancy will be relatively weak compared to the vertical shear, so it will be difficult to get sustained severe storms and isolated wind damage will be the most probable threat. ..Thompson/Dean.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening from central/northern Illinois to western Indiana. A few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...IL/IN this afternoon into early tonight... A deep (989 mb) cyclone near the northeast KS/northwest MO border will move northeastward to northern IL by this evening and Lower MI overnight, in conjunction with a deep midlevel trough and 100+ kt midlevel jet streak. Elevated convection is ongoing this morning in a zone of focused ascent with warm advection/frontogenesis across IA, where isolated large hail may occur with MUCAPE around 500 J/kg and steep midlevel lapse rates/cool midlevel temperatures. The warm sector of the cyclone is characterized by a narrow/modest corridor of returning moisture (low-mid 50s boundary-layer dewpoints) that will overspread MO/IL through the afternoon. Surface heating in cloud breaks, continued moisture advection and relatively cool midlevel temperatures will all contribute to warm sector destabilization (MLCAPE 500-750 J/kg) through the afternoon across IL. Surface-based thunderstorm development will become probable by early-mid afternoon in a broken band along and just ahead of a remnant dryline moving from MO into IL, and storms will subsequently move eastward/northeastward into IN by early tonight before weakening gradually. The deeper buoyancy profiles will be on the cyclonic side of the midlevel jet, where 500 mb temperatures will be < -20 C. Forecast wind profiles suggest supercell potential with long hodographs (effective bulk shear vectors >50 kt), and sufficient low-level hodograph curvature/shear for tornado potential. The primary uncertainty centers of the degree of low-level moistening/destabilization, and the current forecast represents a conditional/reasonable worst case scenario. Otherwise, occasional large hail (1-1.5 inches in diameter) will be possible in IL this afternoon/evening, and the threat for damaging gusts (60-70 mph) and a couple of tornadoes will persist into IN through early tonight. ...TN/MS/AL this afternoon/evening... Boundary-layer dewpoints will slowly increase to the upper 50s/lower 60s ahead of the surface wind shift moving across AR/LA this afternoon. Forcing for ascent should be sufficient to remove the cap, allowing some deep convection in a broken band this afternoon/evening. Buoyancy will be relatively weak compared to the vertical shear, so it will be difficult to get sustained severe storms and isolated wind damage will be the most probable threat. ..Thompson/Dean.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening from central/northern Illinois to western Indiana. A few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...IL/IN this afternoon into early tonight... A deep (989 mb) cyclone near the northeast KS/northwest MO border will move northeastward to northern IL by this evening and Lower MI overnight, in conjunction with a deep midlevel trough and 100+ kt midlevel jet streak. Elevated convection is ongoing this morning in a zone of focused ascent with warm advection/frontogenesis across IA, where isolated large hail may occur with MUCAPE around 500 J/kg and steep midlevel lapse rates/cool midlevel temperatures. The warm sector of the cyclone is characterized by a narrow/modest corridor of returning moisture (low-mid 50s boundary-layer dewpoints) that will overspread MO/IL through the afternoon. Surface heating in cloud breaks, continued moisture advection and relatively cool midlevel temperatures will all contribute to warm sector destabilization (MLCAPE 500-750 J/kg) through the afternoon across IL. Surface-based thunderstorm development will become probable by early-mid afternoon in a broken band along and just ahead of a remnant dryline moving from MO into IL, and storms will subsequently move eastward/northeastward into IN by early tonight before weakening gradually. The deeper buoyancy profiles will be on the cyclonic side of the midlevel jet, where 500 mb temperatures will be < -20 C. Forecast wind profiles suggest supercell potential with long hodographs (effective bulk shear vectors >50 kt), and sufficient low-level hodograph curvature/shear for tornado potential. The primary uncertainty centers of the degree of low-level moistening/destabilization, and the current forecast represents a conditional/reasonable worst case scenario. Otherwise, occasional large hail (1-1.5 inches in diameter) will be possible in IL this afternoon/evening, and the threat for damaging gusts (60-70 mph) and a couple of tornadoes will persist into IN through early tonight. ...TN/MS/AL this afternoon/evening... Boundary-layer dewpoints will slowly increase to the upper 50s/lower 60s ahead of the surface wind shift moving across AR/LA this afternoon. Forcing for ascent should be sufficient to remove the cap, allowing some deep convection in a broken band this afternoon/evening. Buoyancy will be relatively weak compared to the vertical shear, so it will be difficult to get sustained severe storms and isolated wind damage will be the most probable threat. ..Thompson/Dean.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening from central/northern Illinois to western Indiana. A few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...IL/IN this afternoon into early tonight... A deep (989 mb) cyclone near the northeast KS/northwest MO border will move northeastward to northern IL by this evening and Lower MI overnight, in conjunction with a deep midlevel trough and 100+ kt midlevel jet streak. Elevated convection is ongoing this morning in a zone of focused ascent with warm advection/frontogenesis across IA, where isolated large hail may occur with MUCAPE around 500 J/kg and steep midlevel lapse rates/cool midlevel temperatures. The warm sector of the cyclone is characterized by a narrow/modest corridor of returning moisture (low-mid 50s boundary-layer dewpoints) that will overspread MO/IL through the afternoon. Surface heating in cloud breaks, continued moisture advection and relatively cool midlevel temperatures will all contribute to warm sector destabilization (MLCAPE 500-750 J/kg) through the afternoon across IL. Surface-based thunderstorm development will become probable by early-mid afternoon in a broken band along and just ahead of a remnant dryline moving from MO into IL, and storms will subsequently move eastward/northeastward into IN by early tonight before weakening gradually. The deeper buoyancy profiles will be on the cyclonic side of the midlevel jet, where 500 mb temperatures will be < -20 C. Forecast wind profiles suggest supercell potential with long hodographs (effective bulk shear vectors >50 kt), and sufficient low-level hodograph curvature/shear for tornado potential. The primary uncertainty centers of the degree of low-level moistening/destabilization, and the current forecast represents a conditional/reasonable worst case scenario. Otherwise, occasional large hail (1-1.5 inches in diameter) will be possible in IL this afternoon/evening, and the threat for damaging gusts (60-70 mph) and a couple of tornadoes will persist into IN through early tonight. ...TN/MS/AL this afternoon/evening... Boundary-layer dewpoints will slowly increase to the upper 50s/lower 60s ahead of the surface wind shift moving across AR/LA this afternoon. Forcing for ascent should be sufficient to remove the cap, allowing some deep convection in a broken band this afternoon/evening. Buoyancy will be relatively weak compared to the vertical shear, so it will be difficult to get sustained severe storms and isolated wind damage will be the most probable threat. ..Thompson/Dean.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening from central/northern Illinois to western Indiana. A few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...IL/IN this afternoon into early tonight... A deep (989 mb) cyclone near the northeast KS/northwest MO border will move northeastward to northern IL by this evening and Lower MI overnight, in conjunction with a deep midlevel trough and 100+ kt midlevel jet streak. Elevated convection is ongoing this morning in a zone of focused ascent with warm advection/frontogenesis across IA, where isolated large hail may occur with MUCAPE around 500 J/kg and steep midlevel lapse rates/cool midlevel temperatures. The warm sector of the cyclone is characterized by a narrow/modest corridor of returning moisture (low-mid 50s boundary-layer dewpoints) that will overspread MO/IL through the afternoon. Surface heating in cloud breaks, continued moisture advection and relatively cool midlevel temperatures will all contribute to warm sector destabilization (MLCAPE 500-750 J/kg) through the afternoon across IL. Surface-based thunderstorm development will become probable by early-mid afternoon in a broken band along and just ahead of a remnant dryline moving from MO into IL, and storms will subsequently move eastward/northeastward into IN by early tonight before weakening gradually. The deeper buoyancy profiles will be on the cyclonic side of the midlevel jet, where 500 mb temperatures will be < -20 C. Forecast wind profiles suggest supercell potential with long hodographs (effective bulk shear vectors >50 kt), and sufficient low-level hodograph curvature/shear for tornado potential. The primary uncertainty centers of the degree of low-level moistening/destabilization, and the current forecast represents a conditional/reasonable worst case scenario. Otherwise, occasional large hail (1-1.5 inches in diameter) will be possible in IL this afternoon/evening, and the threat for damaging gusts (60-70 mph) and a couple of tornadoes will persist into IN through early tonight. ...TN/MS/AL this afternoon/evening... Boundary-layer dewpoints will slowly increase to the upper 50s/lower 60s ahead of the surface wind shift moving across AR/LA this afternoon. Forcing for ascent should be sufficient to remove the cap, allowing some deep convection in a broken band this afternoon/evening. Buoyancy will be relatively weak compared to the vertical shear, so it will be difficult to get sustained severe storms and isolated wind damage will be the most probable threat. ..Thompson/Dean.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening from central/northern Illinois to western Indiana. A few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...IL/IN this afternoon into early tonight... A deep (989 mb) cyclone near the northeast KS/northwest MO border will move northeastward to northern IL by this evening and Lower MI overnight, in conjunction with a deep midlevel trough and 100+ kt midlevel jet streak. Elevated convection is ongoing this morning in a zone of focused ascent with warm advection/frontogenesis across IA, where isolated large hail may occur with MUCAPE around 500 J/kg and steep midlevel lapse rates/cool midlevel temperatures. The warm sector of the cyclone is characterized by a narrow/modest corridor of returning moisture (low-mid 50s boundary-layer dewpoints) that will overspread MO/IL through the afternoon. Surface heating in cloud breaks, continued moisture advection and relatively cool midlevel temperatures will all contribute to warm sector destabilization (MLCAPE 500-750 J/kg) through the afternoon across IL. Surface-based thunderstorm development will become probable by early-mid afternoon in a broken band along and just ahead of a remnant dryline moving from MO into IL, and storms will subsequently move eastward/northeastward into IN by early tonight before weakening gradually. The deeper buoyancy profiles will be on the cyclonic side of the midlevel jet, where 500 mb temperatures will be < -20 C. Forecast wind profiles suggest supercell potential with long hodographs (effective bulk shear vectors >50 kt), and sufficient low-level hodograph curvature/shear for tornado potential. The primary uncertainty centers of the degree of low-level moistening/destabilization, and the current forecast represents a conditional/reasonable worst case scenario. Otherwise, occasional large hail (1-1.5 inches in diameter) will be possible in IL this afternoon/evening, and the threat for damaging gusts (60-70 mph) and a couple of tornadoes will persist into IN through early tonight. ...TN/MS/AL this afternoon/evening... Boundary-layer dewpoints will slowly increase to the upper 50s/lower 60s ahead of the surface wind shift moving across AR/LA this afternoon. Forcing for ascent should be sufficient to remove the cap, allowing some deep convection in a broken band this afternoon/evening. Buoyancy will be relatively weak compared to the vertical shear, so it will be difficult to get sustained severe storms and isolated wind damage will be the most probable threat. ..Thompson/Dean.. 03/19/2025 Read more

MD 0240 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF IA INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST IL
Mesoscale Discussion 0240 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Areas affected...Parts of IA into extreme northwest IL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 190937Z - 191130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated hail and strong thunderstorm gusts are possible early this morning. DISCUSSION...An arc of elevated convection has recently intensified from west-central into eastern IA, aided by ascent attendant to a powerful cyclone moving across KS, and within an environment characterized by MUCAPE of around 500 J/kg and cold temperatures aloft. Increasing midlevel flow northeast of the cyclone is supporting effective shear of 30-40 kt, assuming a sufficiently deep updraft. Some transient storm organization will remain possible through the early morning, with a favorable thermodynamic environment for production of small to isolated severe hail, as noted earlier north of Omaha. Localized strong gusts also cannot be ruled out with any more organized and sustained cells. ..Dean/Thompson.. 03/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD... LAT...LON 42609501 43149325 42999171 41919009 40439084 41449350 41949503 42189528 42609501 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Mar 19 09:31:01 UTC 2025.

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 5... A mid-level trough will move through the central U.S. on Saturday and Sunday, as moisture advection takes place across the southern Plains, lower Mississippi Valley and Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorm development will likely take place ahead of the trough on Sunday afternoon and evening, along the northern edge of the moist airmass from the Red River Valley eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. A threat for large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible within the more organized components of a developing MCS. The MCS is forecast to move southeastward through the lower Mississippi valley during the overnight period. ...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8... On Monday, the trough is forecast to become amplified across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front moves southward through the Gulf Coast states. Isolated severe storms could occur near the central Gulf Coast early in the day, but the majority of the storms are expected to move offshore into the Gulf. On Tuesday and Wednesday, surface high pressure is forecast to settle over the eastern half of the nation. This dry and cool airmass will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms over most of the continental U.S. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 5... A mid-level trough will move through the central U.S. on Saturday and Sunday, as moisture advection takes place across the southern Plains, lower Mississippi Valley and Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorm development will likely take place ahead of the trough on Sunday afternoon and evening, along the northern edge of the moist airmass from the Red River Valley eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. A threat for large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible within the more organized components of a developing MCS. The MCS is forecast to move southeastward through the lower Mississippi valley during the overnight period. ...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8... On Monday, the trough is forecast to become amplified across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front moves southward through the Gulf Coast states. Isolated severe storms could occur near the central Gulf Coast early in the day, but the majority of the storms are expected to move offshore into the Gulf. On Tuesday and Wednesday, surface high pressure is forecast to settle over the eastern half of the nation. This dry and cool airmass will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms over most of the continental U.S. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 5... A mid-level trough will move through the central U.S. on Saturday and Sunday, as moisture advection takes place across the southern Plains, lower Mississippi Valley and Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorm development will likely take place ahead of the trough on Sunday afternoon and evening, along the northern edge of the moist airmass from the Red River Valley eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. A threat for large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible within the more organized components of a developing MCS. The MCS is forecast to move southeastward through the lower Mississippi valley during the overnight period. ...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8... On Monday, the trough is forecast to become amplified across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front moves southward through the Gulf Coast states. Isolated severe storms could occur near the central Gulf Coast early in the day, but the majority of the storms are expected to move offshore into the Gulf. On Tuesday and Wednesday, surface high pressure is forecast to settle over the eastern half of the nation. This dry and cool airmass will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms over most of the continental U.S. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 5... A mid-level trough will move through the central U.S. on Saturday and Sunday, as moisture advection takes place across the southern Plains, lower Mississippi Valley and Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorm development will likely take place ahead of the trough on Sunday afternoon and evening, along the northern edge of the moist airmass from the Red River Valley eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. A threat for large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible within the more organized components of a developing MCS. The MCS is forecast to move southeastward through the lower Mississippi valley during the overnight period. ...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8... On Monday, the trough is forecast to become amplified across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front moves southward through the Gulf Coast states. Isolated severe storms could occur near the central Gulf Coast early in the day, but the majority of the storms are expected to move offshore into the Gulf. On Tuesday and Wednesday, surface high pressure is forecast to settle over the eastern half of the nation. This dry and cool airmass will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms over most of the continental U.S. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 5... A mid-level trough will move through the central U.S. on Saturday and Sunday, as moisture advection takes place across the southern Plains, lower Mississippi Valley and Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorm development will likely take place ahead of the trough on Sunday afternoon and evening, along the northern edge of the moist airmass from the Red River Valley eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. A threat for large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible within the more organized components of a developing MCS. The MCS is forecast to move southeastward through the lower Mississippi valley during the overnight period. ...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8... On Monday, the trough is forecast to become amplified across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front moves southward through the Gulf Coast states. Isolated severe storms could occur near the central Gulf Coast early in the day, but the majority of the storms are expected to move offshore into the Gulf. On Tuesday and Wednesday, surface high pressure is forecast to settle over the eastern half of the nation. This dry and cool airmass will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms over most of the continental U.S. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 5... A mid-level trough will move through the central U.S. on Saturday and Sunday, as moisture advection takes place across the southern Plains, lower Mississippi Valley and Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorm development will likely take place ahead of the trough on Sunday afternoon and evening, along the northern edge of the moist airmass from the Red River Valley eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. A threat for large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible within the more organized components of a developing MCS. The MCS is forecast to move southeastward through the lower Mississippi valley during the overnight period. ...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8... On Monday, the trough is forecast to become amplified across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front moves southward through the Gulf Coast states. Isolated severe storms could occur near the central Gulf Coast early in the day, but the majority of the storms are expected to move offshore into the Gulf. On Tuesday and Wednesday, surface high pressure is forecast to settle over the eastern half of the nation. This dry and cool airmass will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms over most of the continental U.S. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 5... A mid-level trough will move through the central U.S. on Saturday and Sunday, as moisture advection takes place across the southern Plains, lower Mississippi Valley and Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorm development will likely take place ahead of the trough on Sunday afternoon and evening, along the northern edge of the moist airmass from the Red River Valley eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. A threat for large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible within the more organized components of a developing MCS. The MCS is forecast to move southeastward through the lower Mississippi valley during the overnight period. ...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8... On Monday, the trough is forecast to become amplified across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front moves southward through the Gulf Coast states. Isolated severe storms could occur near the central Gulf Coast early in the day, but the majority of the storms are expected to move offshore into the Gulf. On Tuesday and Wednesday, surface high pressure is forecast to settle over the eastern half of the nation. This dry and cool airmass will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms over most of the continental U.S. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 5... A mid-level trough will move through the central U.S. on Saturday and Sunday, as moisture advection takes place across the southern Plains, lower Mississippi Valley and Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorm development will likely take place ahead of the trough on Sunday afternoon and evening, along the northern edge of the moist airmass from the Red River Valley eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. A threat for large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible within the more organized components of a developing MCS. The MCS is forecast to move southeastward through the lower Mississippi valley during the overnight period. ...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8... On Monday, the trough is forecast to become amplified across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front moves southward through the Gulf Coast states. Isolated severe storms could occur near the central Gulf Coast early in the day, but the majority of the storms are expected to move offshore into the Gulf. On Tuesday and Wednesday, surface high pressure is forecast to settle over the eastern half of the nation. This dry and cool airmass will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms over most of the continental U.S. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 5... A mid-level trough will move through the central U.S. on Saturday and Sunday, as moisture advection takes place across the southern Plains, lower Mississippi Valley and Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorm development will likely take place ahead of the trough on Sunday afternoon and evening, along the northern edge of the moist airmass from the Red River Valley eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. A threat for large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible within the more organized components of a developing MCS. The MCS is forecast to move southeastward through the lower Mississippi valley during the overnight period. ...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8... On Monday, the trough is forecast to become amplified across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front moves southward through the Gulf Coast states. Isolated severe storms could occur near the central Gulf Coast early in the day, but the majority of the storms are expected to move offshore into the Gulf. On Tuesday and Wednesday, surface high pressure is forecast to settle over the eastern half of the nation. This dry and cool airmass will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms over most of the continental U.S. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 5... A mid-level trough will move through the central U.S. on Saturday and Sunday, as moisture advection takes place across the southern Plains, lower Mississippi Valley and Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorm development will likely take place ahead of the trough on Sunday afternoon and evening, along the northern edge of the moist airmass from the Red River Valley eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. A threat for large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible within the more organized components of a developing MCS. The MCS is forecast to move southeastward through the lower Mississippi valley during the overnight period. ...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8... On Monday, the trough is forecast to become amplified across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front moves southward through the Gulf Coast states. Isolated severe storms could occur near the central Gulf Coast early in the day, but the majority of the storms are expected to move offshore into the Gulf. On Tuesday and Wednesday, surface high pressure is forecast to settle over the eastern half of the nation. This dry and cool airmass will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms over most of the continental U.S. Read more