Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A cold front has cleared the Outer Banks and moved offshore. Still, isolated thunderstorms should persist through this afternoon across coastal NC and vicinity, as cool temperatures aloft associated with an eastward-moving upper trough support weak MUCAPE. Small hail may occur with this activity. Farther west, isolated convection appears possible this afternoon through tonight across parts of CA into the Great Basin and interior Pacific Northwest, along with coastal OR/WA. This activity will occur in association with an upper trough moving eastward over the western CONUS through the period. Weak instability is expected to limit the overall severe threat, with small hail possible with the strongest cores in the northern part of the Central Valley in CA. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A cold front has cleared the Outer Banks and moved offshore. Still, isolated thunderstorms should persist through this afternoon across coastal NC and vicinity, as cool temperatures aloft associated with an eastward-moving upper trough support weak MUCAPE. Small hail may occur with this activity. Farther west, isolated convection appears possible this afternoon through tonight across parts of CA into the Great Basin and interior Pacific Northwest, along with coastal OR/WA. This activity will occur in association with an upper trough moving eastward over the western CONUS through the period. Weak instability is expected to limit the overall severe threat, with small hail possible with the strongest cores in the northern part of the Central Valley in CA. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A cold front has cleared the Outer Banks and moved offshore. Still, isolated thunderstorms should persist through this afternoon across coastal NC and vicinity, as cool temperatures aloft associated with an eastward-moving upper trough support weak MUCAPE. Small hail may occur with this activity. Farther west, isolated convection appears possible this afternoon through tonight across parts of CA into the Great Basin and interior Pacific Northwest, along with coastal OR/WA. This activity will occur in association with an upper trough moving eastward over the western CONUS through the period. Weak instability is expected to limit the overall severe threat, with small hail possible with the strongest cores in the northern part of the Central Valley in CA. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A cold front has cleared the Outer Banks and moved offshore. Still, isolated thunderstorms should persist through this afternoon across coastal NC and vicinity, as cool temperatures aloft associated with an eastward-moving upper trough support weak MUCAPE. Small hail may occur with this activity. Farther west, isolated convection appears possible this afternoon through tonight across parts of CA into the Great Basin and interior Pacific Northwest, along with coastal OR/WA. This activity will occur in association with an upper trough moving eastward over the western CONUS through the period. Weak instability is expected to limit the overall severe threat, with small hail possible with the strongest cores in the northern part of the Central Valley in CA. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A cold front has cleared the Outer Banks and moved offshore. Still, isolated thunderstorms should persist through this afternoon across coastal NC and vicinity, as cool temperatures aloft associated with an eastward-moving upper trough support weak MUCAPE. Small hail may occur with this activity. Farther west, isolated convection appears possible this afternoon through tonight across parts of CA into the Great Basin and interior Pacific Northwest, along with coastal OR/WA. This activity will occur in association with an upper trough moving eastward over the western CONUS through the period. Weak instability is expected to limit the overall severe threat, with small hail possible with the strongest cores in the northern part of the Central Valley in CA. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A cold front has cleared the Outer Banks and moved offshore. Still, isolated thunderstorms should persist through this afternoon across coastal NC and vicinity, as cool temperatures aloft associated with an eastward-moving upper trough support weak MUCAPE. Small hail may occur with this activity. Farther west, isolated convection appears possible this afternoon through tonight across parts of CA into the Great Basin and interior Pacific Northwest, along with coastal OR/WA. This activity will occur in association with an upper trough moving eastward over the western CONUS through the period. Weak instability is expected to limit the overall severe threat, with small hail possible with the strongest cores in the northern part of the Central Valley in CA. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern today will feature a large-scale trough exiting the East Coast as a ridge builds over the central U.S., followed by a trough moving into Interior West from the eastern Pacific. A few weak thunderstorms may develop beneath a cold mid-level trough along the Carolina coast later this afternoon. Otherwise, dry offshore flow over the East Coast and Gulf Coast will lead to tranquil conditions. A few widely spaced, weak thunderstorms are possible over parts of the West. ..Smith/Thompson.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern today will feature a large-scale trough exiting the East Coast as a ridge builds over the central U.S., followed by a trough moving into Interior West from the eastern Pacific. A few weak thunderstorms may develop beneath a cold mid-level trough along the Carolina coast later this afternoon. Otherwise, dry offshore flow over the East Coast and Gulf Coast will lead to tranquil conditions. A few widely spaced, weak thunderstorms are possible over parts of the West. ..Smith/Thompson.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern today will feature a large-scale trough exiting the East Coast as a ridge builds over the central U.S., followed by a trough moving into Interior West from the eastern Pacific. A few weak thunderstorms may develop beneath a cold mid-level trough along the Carolina coast later this afternoon. Otherwise, dry offshore flow over the East Coast and Gulf Coast will lead to tranquil conditions. A few widely spaced, weak thunderstorms are possible over parts of the West. ..Smith/Thompson.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern today will feature a large-scale trough exiting the East Coast as a ridge builds over the central U.S., followed by a trough moving into Interior West from the eastern Pacific. A few weak thunderstorms may develop beneath a cold mid-level trough along the Carolina coast later this afternoon. Otherwise, dry offshore flow over the East Coast and Gulf Coast will lead to tranquil conditions. A few widely spaced, weak thunderstorms are possible over parts of the West. ..Smith/Thompson.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern today will feature a large-scale trough exiting the East Coast as a ridge builds over the central U.S., followed by a trough moving into Interior West from the eastern Pacific. A few weak thunderstorms may develop beneath a cold mid-level trough along the Carolina coast later this afternoon. Otherwise, dry offshore flow over the East Coast and Gulf Coast will lead to tranquil conditions. A few widely spaced, weak thunderstorms are possible over parts of the West. ..Smith/Thompson.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern today will feature a large-scale trough exiting the East Coast as a ridge builds over the central U.S., followed by a trough moving into Interior West from the eastern Pacific. A few weak thunderstorms may develop beneath a cold mid-level trough along the Carolina coast later this afternoon. Otherwise, dry offshore flow over the East Coast and Gulf Coast will lead to tranquil conditions. A few widely spaced, weak thunderstorms are possible over parts of the West. ..Smith/Thompson.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern today will feature a large-scale trough exiting the East Coast as a ridge builds over the central U.S., followed by a trough moving into Interior West from the eastern Pacific. A few weak thunderstorms may develop beneath a cold mid-level trough along the Carolina coast later this afternoon. Otherwise, dry offshore flow over the East Coast and Gulf Coast will lead to tranquil conditions. A few widely spaced, weak thunderstorms are possible over parts of the West. ..Smith/Thompson.. 03/17/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... On Thursday, a trough at mid-levels will move eastward into the Appalachians, as a cold front advances quickly eastward across the Atlantic Coastal states. Isolated strong gusts may occur with convection that develops along or ahead of the front. The threat is expected to be marginal. On Saturday and Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to quickly move from the High Plains to the East Coast. A moist airmmass in the Gulf Coast region is forecast to remain largely in place as the system passes to the north. This will likely limit any severe potential. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... From Saturday night into Sunday, moisture advection is forecast to increase considerably over the southern Plains, as a mid-level trough moves quickly southeastward across the central U.S. Medium-range models suggest that the northern edge of the moist airmass will be located from the Red River Valley eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley by Sunday afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be possible along this east-to-west corridor during the late afternoon and evening, where the models suggest that moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will be in place. Model spread appears low enough to add a 15 percent area, centered on the Ark-La-Tex for Sunday. On Monday, the trough is forecast to move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front advances quickly toward the Atlantic Seaboard. Thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat will be possible along and near the front during the afternoon, but predictability is low concerning the timing of the front, and its associated trough. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... On Thursday, a trough at mid-levels will move eastward into the Appalachians, as a cold front advances quickly eastward across the Atlantic Coastal states. Isolated strong gusts may occur with convection that develops along or ahead of the front. The threat is expected to be marginal. On Saturday and Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to quickly move from the High Plains to the East Coast. A moist airmmass in the Gulf Coast region is forecast to remain largely in place as the system passes to the north. This will likely limit any severe potential. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... From Saturday night into Sunday, moisture advection is forecast to increase considerably over the southern Plains, as a mid-level trough moves quickly southeastward across the central U.S. Medium-range models suggest that the northern edge of the moist airmass will be located from the Red River Valley eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley by Sunday afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be possible along this east-to-west corridor during the late afternoon and evening, where the models suggest that moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will be in place. Model spread appears low enough to add a 15 percent area, centered on the Ark-La-Tex for Sunday. On Monday, the trough is forecast to move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front advances quickly toward the Atlantic Seaboard. Thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat will be possible along and near the front during the afternoon, but predictability is low concerning the timing of the front, and its associated trough. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... On Thursday, a trough at mid-levels will move eastward into the Appalachians, as a cold front advances quickly eastward across the Atlantic Coastal states. Isolated strong gusts may occur with convection that develops along or ahead of the front. The threat is expected to be marginal. On Saturday and Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to quickly move from the High Plains to the East Coast. A moist airmmass in the Gulf Coast region is forecast to remain largely in place as the system passes to the north. This will likely limit any severe potential. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... From Saturday night into Sunday, moisture advection is forecast to increase considerably over the southern Plains, as a mid-level trough moves quickly southeastward across the central U.S. Medium-range models suggest that the northern edge of the moist airmass will be located from the Red River Valley eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley by Sunday afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be possible along this east-to-west corridor during the late afternoon and evening, where the models suggest that moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will be in place. Model spread appears low enough to add a 15 percent area, centered on the Ark-La-Tex for Sunday. On Monday, the trough is forecast to move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front advances quickly toward the Atlantic Seaboard. Thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat will be possible along and near the front during the afternoon, but predictability is low concerning the timing of the front, and its associated trough. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... On Thursday, a trough at mid-levels will move eastward into the Appalachians, as a cold front advances quickly eastward across the Atlantic Coastal states. Isolated strong gusts may occur with convection that develops along or ahead of the front. The threat is expected to be marginal. On Saturday and Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to quickly move from the High Plains to the East Coast. A moist airmmass in the Gulf Coast region is forecast to remain largely in place as the system passes to the north. This will likely limit any severe potential. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... From Saturday night into Sunday, moisture advection is forecast to increase considerably over the southern Plains, as a mid-level trough moves quickly southeastward across the central U.S. Medium-range models suggest that the northern edge of the moist airmass will be located from the Red River Valley eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley by Sunday afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be possible along this east-to-west corridor during the late afternoon and evening, where the models suggest that moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will be in place. Model spread appears low enough to add a 15 percent area, centered on the Ark-La-Tex for Sunday. On Monday, the trough is forecast to move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front advances quickly toward the Atlantic Seaboard. Thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat will be possible along and near the front during the afternoon, but predictability is low concerning the timing of the front, and its associated trough. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... On Thursday, a trough at mid-levels will move eastward into the Appalachians, as a cold front advances quickly eastward across the Atlantic Coastal states. Isolated strong gusts may occur with convection that develops along or ahead of the front. The threat is expected to be marginal. On Saturday and Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to quickly move from the High Plains to the East Coast. A moist airmmass in the Gulf Coast region is forecast to remain largely in place as the system passes to the north. This will likely limit any severe potential. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... From Saturday night into Sunday, moisture advection is forecast to increase considerably over the southern Plains, as a mid-level trough moves quickly southeastward across the central U.S. Medium-range models suggest that the northern edge of the moist airmass will be located from the Red River Valley eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley by Sunday afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be possible along this east-to-west corridor during the late afternoon and evening, where the models suggest that moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will be in place. Model spread appears low enough to add a 15 percent area, centered on the Ark-La-Tex for Sunday. On Monday, the trough is forecast to move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front advances quickly toward the Atlantic Seaboard. Thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat will be possible along and near the front during the afternoon, but predictability is low concerning the timing of the front, and its associated trough. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... On Thursday, a trough at mid-levels will move eastward into the Appalachians, as a cold front advances quickly eastward across the Atlantic Coastal states. Isolated strong gusts may occur with convection that develops along or ahead of the front. The threat is expected to be marginal. On Saturday and Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to quickly move from the High Plains to the East Coast. A moist airmmass in the Gulf Coast region is forecast to remain largely in place as the system passes to the north. This will likely limit any severe potential. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... From Saturday night into Sunday, moisture advection is forecast to increase considerably over the southern Plains, as a mid-level trough moves quickly southeastward across the central U.S. Medium-range models suggest that the northern edge of the moist airmass will be located from the Red River Valley eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley by Sunday afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be possible along this east-to-west corridor during the late afternoon and evening, where the models suggest that moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will be in place. Model spread appears low enough to add a 15 percent area, centered on the Ark-La-Tex for Sunday. On Monday, the trough is forecast to move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front advances quickly toward the Atlantic Seaboard. Thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat will be possible along and near the front during the afternoon, but predictability is low concerning the timing of the front, and its associated trough. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... On Thursday, a trough at mid-levels will move eastward into the Appalachians, as a cold front advances quickly eastward across the Atlantic Coastal states. Isolated strong gusts may occur with convection that develops along or ahead of the front. The threat is expected to be marginal. On Saturday and Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to quickly move from the High Plains to the East Coast. A moist airmmass in the Gulf Coast region is forecast to remain largely in place as the system passes to the north. This will likely limit any severe potential. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... From Saturday night into Sunday, moisture advection is forecast to increase considerably over the southern Plains, as a mid-level trough moves quickly southeastward across the central U.S. Medium-range models suggest that the northern edge of the moist airmass will be located from the Red River Valley eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley by Sunday afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be possible along this east-to-west corridor during the late afternoon and evening, where the models suggest that moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will be in place. Model spread appears low enough to add a 15 percent area, centered on the Ark-La-Tex for Sunday. On Monday, the trough is forecast to move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front advances quickly toward the Atlantic Seaboard. Thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat will be possible along and near the front during the afternoon, but predictability is low concerning the timing of the front, and its associated trough. Read more