Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... On Thursday, a trough at mid-levels will move eastward into the Appalachians, as a cold front advances quickly eastward across the Atlantic Coastal states. Isolated strong gusts may occur with convection that develops along or ahead of the front. The threat is expected to be marginal. On Saturday and Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to quickly move from the High Plains to the East Coast. A moist airmmass in the Gulf Coast region is forecast to remain largely in place as the system passes to the north. This will likely limit any severe potential. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... From Saturday night into Sunday, moisture advection is forecast to increase considerably over the southern Plains, as a mid-level trough moves quickly southeastward across the central U.S. Medium-range models suggest that the northern edge of the moist airmass will be located from the Red River Valley eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley by Sunday afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be possible along this east-to-west corridor during the late afternoon and evening, where the models suggest that moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will be in place. Model spread appears low enough to add a 15 percent area, centered on the Ark-La-Tex for Sunday. On Monday, the trough is forecast to move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front advances quickly toward the Atlantic Seaboard. Thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat will be possible along and near the front during the afternoon, but predictability is low concerning the timing of the front, and its associated trough. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... On Thursday, a trough at mid-levels will move eastward into the Appalachians, as a cold front advances quickly eastward across the Atlantic Coastal states. Isolated strong gusts may occur with convection that develops along or ahead of the front. The threat is expected to be marginal. On Saturday and Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to quickly move from the High Plains to the East Coast. A moist airmmass in the Gulf Coast region is forecast to remain largely in place as the system passes to the north. This will likely limit any severe potential. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... From Saturday night into Sunday, moisture advection is forecast to increase considerably over the southern Plains, as a mid-level trough moves quickly southeastward across the central U.S. Medium-range models suggest that the northern edge of the moist airmass will be located from the Red River Valley eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley by Sunday afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be possible along this east-to-west corridor during the late afternoon and evening, where the models suggest that moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will be in place. Model spread appears low enough to add a 15 percent area, centered on the Ark-La-Tex for Sunday. On Monday, the trough is forecast to move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front advances quickly toward the Atlantic Seaboard. Thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat will be possible along and near the front during the afternoon, but predictability is low concerning the timing of the front, and its associated trough. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... On Thursday, a trough at mid-levels will move eastward into the Appalachians, as a cold front advances quickly eastward across the Atlantic Coastal states. Isolated strong gusts may occur with convection that develops along or ahead of the front. The threat is expected to be marginal. On Saturday and Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to quickly move from the High Plains to the East Coast. A moist airmmass in the Gulf Coast region is forecast to remain largely in place as the system passes to the north. This will likely limit any severe potential. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... From Saturday night into Sunday, moisture advection is forecast to increase considerably over the southern Plains, as a mid-level trough moves quickly southeastward across the central U.S. Medium-range models suggest that the northern edge of the moist airmass will be located from the Red River Valley eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley by Sunday afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be possible along this east-to-west corridor during the late afternoon and evening, where the models suggest that moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will be in place. Model spread appears low enough to add a 15 percent area, centered on the Ark-La-Tex for Sunday. On Monday, the trough is forecast to move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front advances quickly toward the Atlantic Seaboard. Thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat will be possible along and near the front during the afternoon, but predictability is low concerning the timing of the front, and its associated trough. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... On Thursday, a trough at mid-levels will move eastward into the Appalachians, as a cold front advances quickly eastward across the Atlantic Coastal states. Isolated strong gusts may occur with convection that develops along or ahead of the front. The threat is expected to be marginal. On Saturday and Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to quickly move from the High Plains to the East Coast. A moist airmmass in the Gulf Coast region is forecast to remain largely in place as the system passes to the north. This will likely limit any severe potential. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... From Saturday night into Sunday, moisture advection is forecast to increase considerably over the southern Plains, as a mid-level trough moves quickly southeastward across the central U.S. Medium-range models suggest that the northern edge of the moist airmass will be located from the Red River Valley eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley by Sunday afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be possible along this east-to-west corridor during the late afternoon and evening, where the models suggest that moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will be in place. Model spread appears low enough to add a 15 percent area, centered on the Ark-La-Tex for Sunday. On Monday, the trough is forecast to move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front advances quickly toward the Atlantic Seaboard. Thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat will be possible along and near the front during the afternoon, but predictability is low concerning the timing of the front, and its associated trough. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... On Thursday, a trough at mid-levels will move eastward into the Appalachians, as a cold front advances quickly eastward across the Atlantic Coastal states. Isolated strong gusts may occur with convection that develops along or ahead of the front. The threat is expected to be marginal. On Saturday and Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to quickly move from the High Plains to the East Coast. A moist airmmass in the Gulf Coast region is forecast to remain largely in place as the system passes to the north. This will likely limit any severe potential. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... From Saturday night into Sunday, moisture advection is forecast to increase considerably over the southern Plains, as a mid-level trough moves quickly southeastward across the central U.S. Medium-range models suggest that the northern edge of the moist airmass will be located from the Red River Valley eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley by Sunday afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be possible along this east-to-west corridor during the late afternoon and evening, where the models suggest that moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will be in place. Model spread appears low enough to add a 15 percent area, centered on the Ark-La-Tex for Sunday. On Monday, the trough is forecast to move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front advances quickly toward the Atlantic Seaboard. Thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat will be possible along and near the front during the afternoon, but predictability is low concerning the timing of the front, and its associated trough. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday afternoon across parts of the southern High Plains with widespread critical/elevated conditions extending well into the central Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an amplified upper trough off the West Coast. This feature is expected to migrate east over the next 48 hours, ejecting into the southern/central Plains by late Tuesday. As this occurs, robust lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across eastern CO and western KS with minimum surface pressure values falling into the 988 to 992 mb range, which would be well below the 10th percentile of surface pressure climatology for mid-March in the Plains. Such a strong surface low will induce a wide fetch of 20-25 mph winds ahead of and behind an eastward advancing dryline across TX/OK. Moisture return ahead of the low across central TX/OK will limit RH reductions to some degree by late afternoon, but single digit RH minimums are forecast behind the dryline across much of eastern NM and western KS. The arrival of a jet streak associated with a low to mid-level cold front across the southern Rockies along with terrain enhancements off the Caprock and Davis Mountains will support a swath of sustained 30 mph winds (potentially gusting to 40-50 mph) from the Trans Pecos region northeastward to the I-40 corridor in the TX Panhandle. Some forecast uncertainty remains regarding the timing of the low-level front/jet streak, but ensemble probabilities between 50-70% for 30 mph winds coupled with single-digit RH values and critically dry fuels lend enough confidence to introduce an Extremely Critical fire weather risk area. Elsewhere, widespread 20-30 mph winds are expected to the west of the surface flow within the downslope flow regime. Extremely critical conditions may develop across northeast NM into far southeast CO and adjacent portions of KS and OK based on drier/windier solutions, but weaker ensemble support limits confidence in this potential. Across central OK, critical conditions may spread as far east as the I-35 corridor depending on how far east the dryline mixes by peak heating. Similarly, the quality of moisture return into eastern OK and KS will determine the magnitude of the fire weather threat given the expectation for sustained 15-25 mph southerly winds. Forecast adjustments are expected over the next 24 hours as these details come into better focus in short-range guidance. ..Moore.. 03/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday afternoon across parts of the southern High Plains with widespread critical/elevated conditions extending well into the central Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an amplified upper trough off the West Coast. This feature is expected to migrate east over the next 48 hours, ejecting into the southern/central Plains by late Tuesday. As this occurs, robust lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across eastern CO and western KS with minimum surface pressure values falling into the 988 to 992 mb range, which would be well below the 10th percentile of surface pressure climatology for mid-March in the Plains. Such a strong surface low will induce a wide fetch of 20-25 mph winds ahead of and behind an eastward advancing dryline across TX/OK. Moisture return ahead of the low across central TX/OK will limit RH reductions to some degree by late afternoon, but single digit RH minimums are forecast behind the dryline across much of eastern NM and western KS. The arrival of a jet streak associated with a low to mid-level cold front across the southern Rockies along with terrain enhancements off the Caprock and Davis Mountains will support a swath of sustained 30 mph winds (potentially gusting to 40-50 mph) from the Trans Pecos region northeastward to the I-40 corridor in the TX Panhandle. Some forecast uncertainty remains regarding the timing of the low-level front/jet streak, but ensemble probabilities between 50-70% for 30 mph winds coupled with single-digit RH values and critically dry fuels lend enough confidence to introduce an Extremely Critical fire weather risk area. Elsewhere, widespread 20-30 mph winds are expected to the west of the surface flow within the downslope flow regime. Extremely critical conditions may develop across northeast NM into far southeast CO and adjacent portions of KS and OK based on drier/windier solutions, but weaker ensemble support limits confidence in this potential. Across central OK, critical conditions may spread as far east as the I-35 corridor depending on how far east the dryline mixes by peak heating. Similarly, the quality of moisture return into eastern OK and KS will determine the magnitude of the fire weather threat given the expectation for sustained 15-25 mph southerly winds. Forecast adjustments are expected over the next 24 hours as these details come into better focus in short-range guidance. ..Moore.. 03/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday afternoon across parts of the southern High Plains with widespread critical/elevated conditions extending well into the central Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an amplified upper trough off the West Coast. This feature is expected to migrate east over the next 48 hours, ejecting into the southern/central Plains by late Tuesday. As this occurs, robust lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across eastern CO and western KS with minimum surface pressure values falling into the 988 to 992 mb range, which would be well below the 10th percentile of surface pressure climatology for mid-March in the Plains. Such a strong surface low will induce a wide fetch of 20-25 mph winds ahead of and behind an eastward advancing dryline across TX/OK. Moisture return ahead of the low across central TX/OK will limit RH reductions to some degree by late afternoon, but single digit RH minimums are forecast behind the dryline across much of eastern NM and western KS. The arrival of a jet streak associated with a low to mid-level cold front across the southern Rockies along with terrain enhancements off the Caprock and Davis Mountains will support a swath of sustained 30 mph winds (potentially gusting to 40-50 mph) from the Trans Pecos region northeastward to the I-40 corridor in the TX Panhandle. Some forecast uncertainty remains regarding the timing of the low-level front/jet streak, but ensemble probabilities between 50-70% for 30 mph winds coupled with single-digit RH values and critically dry fuels lend enough confidence to introduce an Extremely Critical fire weather risk area. Elsewhere, widespread 20-30 mph winds are expected to the west of the surface flow within the downslope flow regime. Extremely critical conditions may develop across northeast NM into far southeast CO and adjacent portions of KS and OK based on drier/windier solutions, but weaker ensemble support limits confidence in this potential. Across central OK, critical conditions may spread as far east as the I-35 corridor depending on how far east the dryline mixes by peak heating. Similarly, the quality of moisture return into eastern OK and KS will determine the magnitude of the fire weather threat given the expectation for sustained 15-25 mph southerly winds. Forecast adjustments are expected over the next 24 hours as these details come into better focus in short-range guidance. ..Moore.. 03/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday afternoon across parts of the southern High Plains with widespread critical/elevated conditions extending well into the central Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an amplified upper trough off the West Coast. This feature is expected to migrate east over the next 48 hours, ejecting into the southern/central Plains by late Tuesday. As this occurs, robust lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across eastern CO and western KS with minimum surface pressure values falling into the 988 to 992 mb range, which would be well below the 10th percentile of surface pressure climatology for mid-March in the Plains. Such a strong surface low will induce a wide fetch of 20-25 mph winds ahead of and behind an eastward advancing dryline across TX/OK. Moisture return ahead of the low across central TX/OK will limit RH reductions to some degree by late afternoon, but single digit RH minimums are forecast behind the dryline across much of eastern NM and western KS. The arrival of a jet streak associated with a low to mid-level cold front across the southern Rockies along with terrain enhancements off the Caprock and Davis Mountains will support a swath of sustained 30 mph winds (potentially gusting to 40-50 mph) from the Trans Pecos region northeastward to the I-40 corridor in the TX Panhandle. Some forecast uncertainty remains regarding the timing of the low-level front/jet streak, but ensemble probabilities between 50-70% for 30 mph winds coupled with single-digit RH values and critically dry fuels lend enough confidence to introduce an Extremely Critical fire weather risk area. Elsewhere, widespread 20-30 mph winds are expected to the west of the surface flow within the downslope flow regime. Extremely critical conditions may develop across northeast NM into far southeast CO and adjacent portions of KS and OK based on drier/windier solutions, but weaker ensemble support limits confidence in this potential. Across central OK, critical conditions may spread as far east as the I-35 corridor depending on how far east the dryline mixes by peak heating. Similarly, the quality of moisture return into eastern OK and KS will determine the magnitude of the fire weather threat given the expectation for sustained 15-25 mph southerly winds. Forecast adjustments are expected over the next 24 hours as these details come into better focus in short-range guidance. ..Moore.. 03/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday afternoon across parts of the southern High Plains with widespread critical/elevated conditions extending well into the central Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an amplified upper trough off the West Coast. This feature is expected to migrate east over the next 48 hours, ejecting into the southern/central Plains by late Tuesday. As this occurs, robust lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across eastern CO and western KS with minimum surface pressure values falling into the 988 to 992 mb range, which would be well below the 10th percentile of surface pressure climatology for mid-March in the Plains. Such a strong surface low will induce a wide fetch of 20-25 mph winds ahead of and behind an eastward advancing dryline across TX/OK. Moisture return ahead of the low across central TX/OK will limit RH reductions to some degree by late afternoon, but single digit RH minimums are forecast behind the dryline across much of eastern NM and western KS. The arrival of a jet streak associated with a low to mid-level cold front across the southern Rockies along with terrain enhancements off the Caprock and Davis Mountains will support a swath of sustained 30 mph winds (potentially gusting to 40-50 mph) from the Trans Pecos region northeastward to the I-40 corridor in the TX Panhandle. Some forecast uncertainty remains regarding the timing of the low-level front/jet streak, but ensemble probabilities between 50-70% for 30 mph winds coupled with single-digit RH values and critically dry fuels lend enough confidence to introduce an Extremely Critical fire weather risk area. Elsewhere, widespread 20-30 mph winds are expected to the west of the surface flow within the downslope flow regime. Extremely critical conditions may develop across northeast NM into far southeast CO and adjacent portions of KS and OK based on drier/windier solutions, but weaker ensemble support limits confidence in this potential. Across central OK, critical conditions may spread as far east as the I-35 corridor depending on how far east the dryline mixes by peak heating. Similarly, the quality of moisture return into eastern OK and KS will determine the magnitude of the fire weather threat given the expectation for sustained 15-25 mph southerly winds. Forecast adjustments are expected over the next 24 hours as these details come into better focus in short-range guidance. ..Moore.. 03/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday afternoon across parts of the southern High Plains with widespread critical/elevated conditions extending well into the central Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an amplified upper trough off the West Coast. This feature is expected to migrate east over the next 48 hours, ejecting into the southern/central Plains by late Tuesday. As this occurs, robust lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across eastern CO and western KS with minimum surface pressure values falling into the 988 to 992 mb range, which would be well below the 10th percentile of surface pressure climatology for mid-March in the Plains. Such a strong surface low will induce a wide fetch of 20-25 mph winds ahead of and behind an eastward advancing dryline across TX/OK. Moisture return ahead of the low across central TX/OK will limit RH reductions to some degree by late afternoon, but single digit RH minimums are forecast behind the dryline across much of eastern NM and western KS. The arrival of a jet streak associated with a low to mid-level cold front across the southern Rockies along with terrain enhancements off the Caprock and Davis Mountains will support a swath of sustained 30 mph winds (potentially gusting to 40-50 mph) from the Trans Pecos region northeastward to the I-40 corridor in the TX Panhandle. Some forecast uncertainty remains regarding the timing of the low-level front/jet streak, but ensemble probabilities between 50-70% for 30 mph winds coupled with single-digit RH values and critically dry fuels lend enough confidence to introduce an Extremely Critical fire weather risk area. Elsewhere, widespread 20-30 mph winds are expected to the west of the surface flow within the downslope flow regime. Extremely critical conditions may develop across northeast NM into far southeast CO and adjacent portions of KS and OK based on drier/windier solutions, but weaker ensemble support limits confidence in this potential. Across central OK, critical conditions may spread as far east as the I-35 corridor depending on how far east the dryline mixes by peak heating. Similarly, the quality of moisture return into eastern OK and KS will determine the magnitude of the fire weather threat given the expectation for sustained 15-25 mph southerly winds. Forecast adjustments are expected over the next 24 hours as these details come into better focus in short-range guidance. ..Moore.. 03/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday afternoon across parts of the southern High Plains with widespread critical/elevated conditions extending well into the central Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an amplified upper trough off the West Coast. This feature is expected to migrate east over the next 48 hours, ejecting into the southern/central Plains by late Tuesday. As this occurs, robust lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across eastern CO and western KS with minimum surface pressure values falling into the 988 to 992 mb range, which would be well below the 10th percentile of surface pressure climatology for mid-March in the Plains. Such a strong surface low will induce a wide fetch of 20-25 mph winds ahead of and behind an eastward advancing dryline across TX/OK. Moisture return ahead of the low across central TX/OK will limit RH reductions to some degree by late afternoon, but single digit RH minimums are forecast behind the dryline across much of eastern NM and western KS. The arrival of a jet streak associated with a low to mid-level cold front across the southern Rockies along with terrain enhancements off the Caprock and Davis Mountains will support a swath of sustained 30 mph winds (potentially gusting to 40-50 mph) from the Trans Pecos region northeastward to the I-40 corridor in the TX Panhandle. Some forecast uncertainty remains regarding the timing of the low-level front/jet streak, but ensemble probabilities between 50-70% for 30 mph winds coupled with single-digit RH values and critically dry fuels lend enough confidence to introduce an Extremely Critical fire weather risk area. Elsewhere, widespread 20-30 mph winds are expected to the west of the surface flow within the downslope flow regime. Extremely critical conditions may develop across northeast NM into far southeast CO and adjacent portions of KS and OK based on drier/windier solutions, but weaker ensemble support limits confidence in this potential. Across central OK, critical conditions may spread as far east as the I-35 corridor depending on how far east the dryline mixes by peak heating. Similarly, the quality of moisture return into eastern OK and KS will determine the magnitude of the fire weather threat given the expectation for sustained 15-25 mph southerly winds. Forecast adjustments are expected over the next 24 hours as these details come into better focus in short-range guidance. ..Moore.. 03/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...LOWER OHIO VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat will be possible on Wednesday from parts of the Upper Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states. ...Upper Midwest/Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Northern Gulf Coast States... At the start of the period, scattered elevated storms with hail potential are expected to be ongoing along a warm front from Iowa into southwest Wisconsin. The storms will be located to the north and northeast of a mid-level low moving through the mid Missouri Valley. Ahead of the system, moisture advection associated with a strong low-level jet will take place during the day across the mid Mississippi Valley. By afternoon, the moist axis is forecast to be located from eastern Mississippi northward into western Tennessee and western Kentucky. Strong large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching trough will likely support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development in the mid to late afternoon near the moist axis. These storms will move eastward across the western part of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys extending southward into the northern Gulf Coast states. Forecast soundings Wednesday afternoon have MLCAPE along and near the moist axis only reaching then 250 to 500 J/kg. However, a passing 90 to 100 knot mid-level jet streak will contribute to very strong deep-layer shear across the region. For this reason, an isolated severe threat is expected to develop during the late afternoon. The environment should support hail, isolated severe gusts and perhaps a marginal tornado threat with the strongest of storms. The greatest severe threat could be in the vicinity of northern Mississippi, western Tennessee and far northwest Alabama, where some forecast soundings suggest the environment could support isolated supercell development. ..Broyles.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...LOWER OHIO VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat will be possible on Wednesday from parts of the Upper Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states. ...Upper Midwest/Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Northern Gulf Coast States... At the start of the period, scattered elevated storms with hail potential are expected to be ongoing along a warm front from Iowa into southwest Wisconsin. The storms will be located to the north and northeast of a mid-level low moving through the mid Missouri Valley. Ahead of the system, moisture advection associated with a strong low-level jet will take place during the day across the mid Mississippi Valley. By afternoon, the moist axis is forecast to be located from eastern Mississippi northward into western Tennessee and western Kentucky. Strong large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching trough will likely support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development in the mid to late afternoon near the moist axis. These storms will move eastward across the western part of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys extending southward into the northern Gulf Coast states. Forecast soundings Wednesday afternoon have MLCAPE along and near the moist axis only reaching then 250 to 500 J/kg. However, a passing 90 to 100 knot mid-level jet streak will contribute to very strong deep-layer shear across the region. For this reason, an isolated severe threat is expected to develop during the late afternoon. The environment should support hail, isolated severe gusts and perhaps a marginal tornado threat with the strongest of storms. The greatest severe threat could be in the vicinity of northern Mississippi, western Tennessee and far northwest Alabama, where some forecast soundings suggest the environment could support isolated supercell development. ..Broyles.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...LOWER OHIO VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat will be possible on Wednesday from parts of the Upper Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states. ...Upper Midwest/Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Northern Gulf Coast States... At the start of the period, scattered elevated storms with hail potential are expected to be ongoing along a warm front from Iowa into southwest Wisconsin. The storms will be located to the north and northeast of a mid-level low moving through the mid Missouri Valley. Ahead of the system, moisture advection associated with a strong low-level jet will take place during the day across the mid Mississippi Valley. By afternoon, the moist axis is forecast to be located from eastern Mississippi northward into western Tennessee and western Kentucky. Strong large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching trough will likely support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development in the mid to late afternoon near the moist axis. These storms will move eastward across the western part of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys extending southward into the northern Gulf Coast states. Forecast soundings Wednesday afternoon have MLCAPE along and near the moist axis only reaching then 250 to 500 J/kg. However, a passing 90 to 100 knot mid-level jet streak will contribute to very strong deep-layer shear across the region. For this reason, an isolated severe threat is expected to develop during the late afternoon. The environment should support hail, isolated severe gusts and perhaps a marginal tornado threat with the strongest of storms. The greatest severe threat could be in the vicinity of northern Mississippi, western Tennessee and far northwest Alabama, where some forecast soundings suggest the environment could support isolated supercell development. ..Broyles.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...LOWER OHIO VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat will be possible on Wednesday from parts of the Upper Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states. ...Upper Midwest/Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Northern Gulf Coast States... At the start of the period, scattered elevated storms with hail potential are expected to be ongoing along a warm front from Iowa into southwest Wisconsin. The storms will be located to the north and northeast of a mid-level low moving through the mid Missouri Valley. Ahead of the system, moisture advection associated with a strong low-level jet will take place during the day across the mid Mississippi Valley. By afternoon, the moist axis is forecast to be located from eastern Mississippi northward into western Tennessee and western Kentucky. Strong large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching trough will likely support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development in the mid to late afternoon near the moist axis. These storms will move eastward across the western part of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys extending southward into the northern Gulf Coast states. Forecast soundings Wednesday afternoon have MLCAPE along and near the moist axis only reaching then 250 to 500 J/kg. However, a passing 90 to 100 knot mid-level jet streak will contribute to very strong deep-layer shear across the region. For this reason, an isolated severe threat is expected to develop during the late afternoon. The environment should support hail, isolated severe gusts and perhaps a marginal tornado threat with the strongest of storms. The greatest severe threat could be in the vicinity of northern Mississippi, western Tennessee and far northwest Alabama, where some forecast soundings suggest the environment could support isolated supercell development. ..Broyles.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...LOWER OHIO VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat will be possible on Wednesday from parts of the Upper Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states. ...Upper Midwest/Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Northern Gulf Coast States... At the start of the period, scattered elevated storms with hail potential are expected to be ongoing along a warm front from Iowa into southwest Wisconsin. The storms will be located to the north and northeast of a mid-level low moving through the mid Missouri Valley. Ahead of the system, moisture advection associated with a strong low-level jet will take place during the day across the mid Mississippi Valley. By afternoon, the moist axis is forecast to be located from eastern Mississippi northward into western Tennessee and western Kentucky. Strong large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching trough will likely support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development in the mid to late afternoon near the moist axis. These storms will move eastward across the western part of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys extending southward into the northern Gulf Coast states. Forecast soundings Wednesday afternoon have MLCAPE along and near the moist axis only reaching then 250 to 500 J/kg. However, a passing 90 to 100 knot mid-level jet streak will contribute to very strong deep-layer shear across the region. For this reason, an isolated severe threat is expected to develop during the late afternoon. The environment should support hail, isolated severe gusts and perhaps a marginal tornado threat with the strongest of storms. The greatest severe threat could be in the vicinity of northern Mississippi, western Tennessee and far northwest Alabama, where some forecast soundings suggest the environment could support isolated supercell development. ..Broyles.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...LOWER OHIO VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat will be possible on Wednesday from parts of the Upper Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states. ...Upper Midwest/Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Northern Gulf Coast States... At the start of the period, scattered elevated storms with hail potential are expected to be ongoing along a warm front from Iowa into southwest Wisconsin. The storms will be located to the north and northeast of a mid-level low moving through the mid Missouri Valley. Ahead of the system, moisture advection associated with a strong low-level jet will take place during the day across the mid Mississippi Valley. By afternoon, the moist axis is forecast to be located from eastern Mississippi northward into western Tennessee and western Kentucky. Strong large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching trough will likely support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development in the mid to late afternoon near the moist axis. These storms will move eastward across the western part of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys extending southward into the northern Gulf Coast states. Forecast soundings Wednesday afternoon have MLCAPE along and near the moist axis only reaching then 250 to 500 J/kg. However, a passing 90 to 100 knot mid-level jet streak will contribute to very strong deep-layer shear across the region. For this reason, an isolated severe threat is expected to develop during the late afternoon. The environment should support hail, isolated severe gusts and perhaps a marginal tornado threat with the strongest of storms. The greatest severe threat could be in the vicinity of northern Mississippi, western Tennessee and far northwest Alabama, where some forecast soundings suggest the environment could support isolated supercell development. ..Broyles.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...LOWER OHIO VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat will be possible on Wednesday from parts of the Upper Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states. ...Upper Midwest/Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Northern Gulf Coast States... At the start of the period, scattered elevated storms with hail potential are expected to be ongoing along a warm front from Iowa into southwest Wisconsin. The storms will be located to the north and northeast of a mid-level low moving through the mid Missouri Valley. Ahead of the system, moisture advection associated with a strong low-level jet will take place during the day across the mid Mississippi Valley. By afternoon, the moist axis is forecast to be located from eastern Mississippi northward into western Tennessee and western Kentucky. Strong large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching trough will likely support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development in the mid to late afternoon near the moist axis. These storms will move eastward across the western part of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys extending southward into the northern Gulf Coast states. Forecast soundings Wednesday afternoon have MLCAPE along and near the moist axis only reaching then 250 to 500 J/kg. However, a passing 90 to 100 knot mid-level jet streak will contribute to very strong deep-layer shear across the region. For this reason, an isolated severe threat is expected to develop during the late afternoon. The environment should support hail, isolated severe gusts and perhaps a marginal tornado threat with the strongest of storms. The greatest severe threat could be in the vicinity of northern Mississippi, western Tennessee and far northwest Alabama, where some forecast soundings suggest the environment could support isolated supercell development. ..Broyles.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected today across a broad swath of the southern and central Plains. More localized fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Florida Peninsula. ...Southern to central Plains... Early-morning water-vapor imagery shows upper ridging shifting east towards the central CONUS with strong zonal flow over the northern Rockies. This upper flow regime has been promoting steady lee troughing along the northern and central High Plains over the past 12 hours, with further deepening to around 1000 mb expected through the day as a surface cyclone emerges across the northern Plains and a secondary lee cyclone develops in eastern CO. The anomalously strong surface low (surface pressures are expected to approach the 10th percentile for mid-March in the Plains) juxtaposed with a surface high across the Southeast will induce a robust low-level mass response with widespread 15-25 mph winds from TX to the MO River Valley. 05 UTC observations already show a southerly flow regime becoming established across TX and OK, but a recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted quality moisture well offshore. Consequently, a dry return flow regime is expected across much of the southern to central Plains. Guidance continues to show high confidence in widespread 20-25 sustained winds across a broad swath of the southern and central Plains. A corridor of 30-40 mph gusts appears likely from central TX through central/northeast OK into eastern KS and western MO. The meager moisture return coupled with diurnal heating and some degree of downslope warming/drying along the High Plains will result in widespread RH reductions into the single digits and low teens across eastern CO/NM and western TX/OK and into the low to mid 20s further north and east. Fuels across much of the central and south-central CONUS are considered supportive of fire spread based on either recent fire activity, high ERC values, or steady drying over the past 24-48 hours over areas that received rainfall late last week. Consequently, fire weather concerns are expected across a broad swath of the Plains. A regional minimum in wind speeds is likely across parts of northeastern CO into adjacent parts of KS and NE in close proximity to the surface low, but periods of breezy conditions and warm/dry conditions will still support some fire concern. Confidence in long-duration critical conditions is highest from eastern NM into western TX and western/central OK. ...Florida... Recent MRMS QPE shows that limited rain has fallen across parts of the central FL peninsula after yesterday's frontal passage. In the wake of this front, dry northerly winds are expected today as a surface high migrates into the Southeast. A combination of dry/breezy conditions (wind speeds between 15-20 mph) should promote areas of elevated fire weather conditions over a region with ERC values between the 70-90th percentile. ..Moore.. 03/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more