1 week 3 days ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025
Valid 170100Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...
...SUMMARY...
A small organized cluster of thunderstorms with potential to produce
a swath of strong to severe wind gusts still appears possible across
parts of the central Dakotas later this evening into the overnight
hours. More sporadic strong thunderstorms with potential to produce
severe wind and hail are possible in a corridor across the Midwest
into Great Lakes vicinity.
...01Z Update...
In the wake of a weakening convective perturbation shifting
east-southeastward through the Great Lakes region, modest mid-level
height rises across eastern portions of the northern Great Plains
will gradually overspread the Upper Midwest and adjacent Great Lakes
region overnight. In the presence of weak and/or weakening
deep-layer shear, and weak mid/upper support for convective
development, the probabilities for the evolution of a sustained
organized severe storm cluster appear to be lowering. However, weak
low-level warm advection to the immediate cool side of convective
outflow, and a quasi-stationary frontal zone extending roughly from
west-northwest of the Dubuque IA vicinity into the middle Missouri
Valley, is forecast to contribute to a corridor of increasing
thunderstorm development overnight. Although mid-level profiles
appear relatively warm, a plume of dry lower/mid-tropospheric air
with steep lapse rates may contribute to a risk for localized strong
wind gusts and some hail in sporadic stronger storms.
Upstream, across the middle Missouri Valley, as a weak mid-level
short wave trough slowly shifts eastward into the western Dakotas,
models continue to suggest that associated scattered thunderstorm
development may gradually consolidate into an organizing cluster,
perhaps aided by lift associated with warm advection on the nose of
a strengthening southerly low-level jet. As this occurs, although
deep-layer mean wind fields will remain generally weak, modest shear
and thermodynamic profiles with steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse
rates and sizable CAPE may contribute to potential for the
development of strong to severe wind gusts overnight.
..Kerr.. 08/17/2025
Read more1 week 3 days ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025
Valid 170100Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...
...SUMMARY...
A small organized cluster of thunderstorms with potential to produce
a swath of strong to severe wind gusts still appears possible across
parts of the central Dakotas later this evening into the overnight
hours. More sporadic strong thunderstorms with potential to produce
severe wind and hail are possible in a corridor across the Midwest
into Great Lakes vicinity.
...01Z Update...
In the wake of a weakening convective perturbation shifting
east-southeastward through the Great Lakes region, modest mid-level
height rises across eastern portions of the northern Great Plains
will gradually overspread the Upper Midwest and adjacent Great Lakes
region overnight. In the presence of weak and/or weakening
deep-layer shear, and weak mid/upper support for convective
development, the probabilities for the evolution of a sustained
organized severe storm cluster appear to be lowering. However, weak
low-level warm advection to the immediate cool side of convective
outflow, and a quasi-stationary frontal zone extending roughly from
west-northwest of the Dubuque IA vicinity into the middle Missouri
Valley, is forecast to contribute to a corridor of increasing
thunderstorm development overnight. Although mid-level profiles
appear relatively warm, a plume of dry lower/mid-tropospheric air
with steep lapse rates may contribute to a risk for localized strong
wind gusts and some hail in sporadic stronger storms.
Upstream, across the middle Missouri Valley, as a weak mid-level
short wave trough slowly shifts eastward into the western Dakotas,
models continue to suggest that associated scattered thunderstorm
development may gradually consolidate into an organizing cluster,
perhaps aided by lift associated with warm advection on the nose of
a strengthening southerly low-level jet. As this occurs, although
deep-layer mean wind fields will remain generally weak, modest shear
and thermodynamic profiles with steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse
rates and sizable CAPE may contribute to potential for the
development of strong to severe wind gusts overnight.
..Kerr.. 08/17/2025
Read more1 week 3 days ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025
Valid 170100Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...
...SUMMARY...
A small organized cluster of thunderstorms with potential to produce
a swath of strong to severe wind gusts still appears possible across
parts of the central Dakotas later this evening into the overnight
hours. More sporadic strong thunderstorms with potential to produce
severe wind and hail are possible in a corridor across the Midwest
into Great Lakes vicinity.
...01Z Update...
In the wake of a weakening convective perturbation shifting
east-southeastward through the Great Lakes region, modest mid-level
height rises across eastern portions of the northern Great Plains
will gradually overspread the Upper Midwest and adjacent Great Lakes
region overnight. In the presence of weak and/or weakening
deep-layer shear, and weak mid/upper support for convective
development, the probabilities for the evolution of a sustained
organized severe storm cluster appear to be lowering. However, weak
low-level warm advection to the immediate cool side of convective
outflow, and a quasi-stationary frontal zone extending roughly from
west-northwest of the Dubuque IA vicinity into the middle Missouri
Valley, is forecast to contribute to a corridor of increasing
thunderstorm development overnight. Although mid-level profiles
appear relatively warm, a plume of dry lower/mid-tropospheric air
with steep lapse rates may contribute to a risk for localized strong
wind gusts and some hail in sporadic stronger storms.
Upstream, across the middle Missouri Valley, as a weak mid-level
short wave trough slowly shifts eastward into the western Dakotas,
models continue to suggest that associated scattered thunderstorm
development may gradually consolidate into an organizing cluster,
perhaps aided by lift associated with warm advection on the nose of
a strengthening southerly low-level jet. As this occurs, although
deep-layer mean wind fields will remain generally weak, modest shear
and thermodynamic profiles with steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse
rates and sizable CAPE may contribute to potential for the
development of strong to severe wind gusts overnight.
..Kerr.. 08/17/2025
Read more1 week 3 days ago
Issued at 800 PM AST Sat Aug 16 2025 000
WTNT35 KNHC 162348
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
800 PM AST Sat Aug 16 2025
...NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT ERIN IS
UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 64.6W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM NW OF ANGUILLA
ABOUT 150 MI...235 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Sint Maarten
* Turks and Caicos Islands
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12
hours in the Leeward Islands and in the next 48 hours in the Turks
and Caicos Islands.
Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico, as well as in the southeastern Bahamas should
monitor the progress of Erin.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Erin was located near
latitude 20.0 North, longitude 64.6 West. Erin is moving toward the
west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn towards the west-northwest is
expected later tonight with a decrease in forward speed, and a turn
towards the north is expected to occur early next week. On the
forecast track, the center of Erin is expected to move just north of
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through Sunday, and pass to the
east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas
Sunday night and Monday.
Recent data from both the NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunters indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near
150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Erin is a category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some
fluctuations in intensity are expected over the next couple of days
due to inner-core structural changes.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).
The latest minimum central pressure estimated by hurricane hunter
dropsonde data is 934 mb (27.58 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.
RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin will continue to produce areas of
heavy rainfall through Sunday across the northern Leeward Islands,
the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4
inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are expected. Locally
considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or
mudslides, are possible.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in the Leeward Islands through tonight, and in the watch area
in the Turks and Caicos Islands beginning on Sunday. Squalls with
wind gusts to tropical-storm force may occur elsewhere over portions
of the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
through Sunday. Squalls with wind gusts to tropical-storm force may
also occur over the southeastern Bahamas beginning on Sunday.
SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect portions of the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and
the Turks and Caicos Islands through the weekend. These swells will
spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United
States by early next week. These rough ocean conditions will likely
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Papin
NHC Webmaster
1 week 3 days ago
MD 1968 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1968
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025
Areas affected...western South Dakota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 162336Z - 170130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will increase this afternoon
into the evening. Large hail may be an initial concern, but the
primary severe threat should be damaging winds.
DISCUSSION...Strong heating of a moist airmass across western South
Dakota has resulted in a strongly unstable environment with MUCAPE
in excess of 3000 J/kg in areas. Within this environment,
thunderstorms are gradually increasing in coverage in response to
strengthening large-scale ascent ahead of another shortwave trough
moving around the periphery of the southern Plains ridge.
Continued southeast-to-east surface winds beneath westerly flow
aloft will maintain a sheared (ESHR around 35-40 knots) environment
across the region. The combination of a strongly unstable and
sheared environment should result in a gradual increase in
thunderstorm intensity late this afternoon into the evening. The
primary threat will be strong, damaging thunderstorm winds as
thunderstorm coverage increases later this evening and thunderstorm
outflows congeal ahead of the aforementioned trough. Isolated large
to perhaps significant hail may occur with the strongest, more
discrete thunderstorms.
The need for a severe thunderstorm watch this evening remains
somewhat unclear, but may increase this evening into the overnight
hours. The most likely onset of more widespread severe potential
should be after 9 PM MDT. However, conditions will be monitored
through the evening in the event coverage and intensity begins to
increase.
..Marsh/Smith.. 08/16/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...BYZ...
LAT...LON 42800197 43310375 44510434 45780402 46130352 45920163
45520078 44390047 43250061 42800197
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more1 week 3 days ago
000
ABNT20 KNHC 162313
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erin, located about 100 miles north of the Virgin Islands.
Northwestern Atlantic:
The area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles off the
coast of North Carolina has not become any better organized over the
past 24 hours, with limited disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity displaced well to the east of the center. Some slight
development of this system is still possible over the next day or so
while it moves little over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. By
Monday, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable
for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
Central Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure could form over the central tropical
Atlantic during the middle to latter portion of next week from a
westward moving tropical wave. Some subsequent development could
occur as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at around
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Hagen
NHC Webmaster
1 week 3 days ago
MD 1967 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 596... FOR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1967
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0444 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025
Areas affected...northern Illinois and northwest Indiana
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 596...
Valid 162144Z - 162245Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 596
continues.
SUMMARY...A cluster of severe storms will move southeastward over
the Chicago Metro through the next 1-2 hours. Damaging gusts and
some hail are likely.
DISCUSSION...As of 2145 UTC, local radar showed a cluster of severe
thunderstorms ongoing over portions of northern IL. Over the last
half hour, several report of severe wind gusts and 1-1.5 inch hail
have occurred with these cells. Continued intensification appears
likely as these cells track southeastward at 30 kt along a buoyancy
gradient of 3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE and local lake breeze
boundaries. These cells will continue across the Chicago Metro
through the next 1-2 hours with damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and hail
up to the size of golf balls likely.
As storms exit northern IL into northwest IN, some loss of
organization is expected as vertical shear decreases to the south.
However, large buoyancy and the strong cold pool should continue to
support some severe risk over the next couple of hours.
..Lyons.. 08/16/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...
LAT...LON 42008899 42228784 41938744 41588687 41238688 40968732
40948804 41338867 41368876 42008899
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more1 week 3 days ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0458 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025
Valid 181200Z - 241200Z
...Day 3-5/Monday-Wednesday...
An expanding and strengthening mid-level ridge over the Four Corners
region will bring above normal temperatures but relatively light
winds to much of the Intermountain West through the midweek.
Mid-level troughing across the Pacific Northwest is expected to
begin translating northeastward along the northern periphery of the
ridge by Day 5/Wednesday, inviting drier conditions to filter into
the Northwestern U.S. Ridge positioning will also usher in a
northward surge of elevated monsoon moisture into the Desert
Southwest by Day 4/Tuesday and by Day 5/Wednesday across the Eastern
Great Basin. A dry boundary layer in place across the Four Corners
and Great Basin regions will support limited rainfall from higher
terrain convection and thunderstorms. Fuels are expected to remain
quite dry and receptive across this region with a particular threat
from new lightning ignitions. A 10 percent probability area for dry
thunderstorms was introduced for Day 5/Wednesday. Farther north, the
mid-level trough could support additional thunderstorms across
portions of the central/northern ID and western MT Day
4-5/Tuesday-Wednesday but some uncertainty regarding antecedent
rainfall distribution along with marginal fuel dryness precludes
introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time.
...Day 6-8/Thursday-Saturday...
Deeper monsoon moisture moving into Great Basin, with PWATs around
1.00 inch as well as rising surface dewpoints/relative humidity,
should begin to limit dry lightning potential late in the week
across the Great Basin and Four Corners regions with at least some
wetting rains expected. Nonetheless, multiple days of higher terrain
showers and thunderstorms will expand across much of the
Intermountain West late next week. Lighter winds overall are
expected under a building ridge over the Western U.S. along with
steadily increasing temperatures, particularly across the western
coastal states. A thermal trough begins to set up across CA late
next week, further drying fuelscapes across the region as
temperatures reach into the 100s in valley/interior locations.
..Williams.. 08/16/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more1 week 3 days ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0458 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025
Valid 181200Z - 241200Z
...Day 3-5/Monday-Wednesday...
An expanding and strengthening mid-level ridge over the Four Corners
region will bring above normal temperatures but relatively light
winds to much of the Intermountain West through the midweek.
Mid-level troughing across the Pacific Northwest is expected to
begin translating northeastward along the northern periphery of the
ridge by Day 5/Wednesday, inviting drier conditions to filter into
the Northwestern U.S. Ridge positioning will also usher in a
northward surge of elevated monsoon moisture into the Desert
Southwest by Day 4/Tuesday and by Day 5/Wednesday across the Eastern
Great Basin. A dry boundary layer in place across the Four Corners
and Great Basin regions will support limited rainfall from higher
terrain convection and thunderstorms. Fuels are expected to remain
quite dry and receptive across this region with a particular threat
from new lightning ignitions. A 10 percent probability area for dry
thunderstorms was introduced for Day 5/Wednesday. Farther north, the
mid-level trough could support additional thunderstorms across
portions of the central/northern ID and western MT Day
4-5/Tuesday-Wednesday but some uncertainty regarding antecedent
rainfall distribution along with marginal fuel dryness precludes
introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time.
...Day 6-8/Thursday-Saturday...
Deeper monsoon moisture moving into Great Basin, with PWATs around
1.00 inch as well as rising surface dewpoints/relative humidity,
should begin to limit dry lightning potential late in the week
across the Great Basin and Four Corners regions with at least some
wetting rains expected. Nonetheless, multiple days of higher terrain
showers and thunderstorms will expand across much of the
Intermountain West late next week. Lighter winds overall are
expected under a building ridge over the Western U.S. along with
steadily increasing temperatures, particularly across the western
coastal states. A thermal trough begins to set up across CA late
next week, further drying fuelscapes across the region as
temperatures reach into the 100s in valley/interior locations.
..Williams.. 08/16/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more1 week 3 days ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0458 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025
Valid 181200Z - 241200Z
...Day 3-5/Monday-Wednesday...
An expanding and strengthening mid-level ridge over the Four Corners
region will bring above normal temperatures but relatively light
winds to much of the Intermountain West through the midweek.
Mid-level troughing across the Pacific Northwest is expected to
begin translating northeastward along the northern periphery of the
ridge by Day 5/Wednesday, inviting drier conditions to filter into
the Northwestern U.S. Ridge positioning will also usher in a
northward surge of elevated monsoon moisture into the Desert
Southwest by Day 4/Tuesday and by Day 5/Wednesday across the Eastern
Great Basin. A dry boundary layer in place across the Four Corners
and Great Basin regions will support limited rainfall from higher
terrain convection and thunderstorms. Fuels are expected to remain
quite dry and receptive across this region with a particular threat
from new lightning ignitions. A 10 percent probability area for dry
thunderstorms was introduced for Day 5/Wednesday. Farther north, the
mid-level trough could support additional thunderstorms across
portions of the central/northern ID and western MT Day
4-5/Tuesday-Wednesday but some uncertainty regarding antecedent
rainfall distribution along with marginal fuel dryness precludes
introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time.
...Day 6-8/Thursday-Saturday...
Deeper monsoon moisture moving into Great Basin, with PWATs around
1.00 inch as well as rising surface dewpoints/relative humidity,
should begin to limit dry lightning potential late in the week
across the Great Basin and Four Corners regions with at least some
wetting rains expected. Nonetheless, multiple days of higher terrain
showers and thunderstorms will expand across much of the
Intermountain West late next week. Lighter winds overall are
expected under a building ridge over the Western U.S. along with
steadily increasing temperatures, particularly across the western
coastal states. A thermal trough begins to set up across CA late
next week, further drying fuelscapes across the region as
temperatures reach into the 100s in valley/interior locations.
..Williams.. 08/16/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more1 week 3 days ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0458 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025
Valid 181200Z - 241200Z
...Day 3-5/Monday-Wednesday...
An expanding and strengthening mid-level ridge over the Four Corners
region will bring above normal temperatures but relatively light
winds to much of the Intermountain West through the midweek.
Mid-level troughing across the Pacific Northwest is expected to
begin translating northeastward along the northern periphery of the
ridge by Day 5/Wednesday, inviting drier conditions to filter into
the Northwestern U.S. Ridge positioning will also usher in a
northward surge of elevated monsoon moisture into the Desert
Southwest by Day 4/Tuesday and by Day 5/Wednesday across the Eastern
Great Basin. A dry boundary layer in place across the Four Corners
and Great Basin regions will support limited rainfall from higher
terrain convection and thunderstorms. Fuels are expected to remain
quite dry and receptive across this region with a particular threat
from new lightning ignitions. A 10 percent probability area for dry
thunderstorms was introduced for Day 5/Wednesday. Farther north, the
mid-level trough could support additional thunderstorms across
portions of the central/northern ID and western MT Day
4-5/Tuesday-Wednesday but some uncertainty regarding antecedent
rainfall distribution along with marginal fuel dryness precludes
introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time.
...Day 6-8/Thursday-Saturday...
Deeper monsoon moisture moving into Great Basin, with PWATs around
1.00 inch as well as rising surface dewpoints/relative humidity,
should begin to limit dry lightning potential late in the week
across the Great Basin and Four Corners regions with at least some
wetting rains expected. Nonetheless, multiple days of higher terrain
showers and thunderstorms will expand across much of the
Intermountain West late next week. Lighter winds overall are
expected under a building ridge over the Western U.S. along with
steadily increasing temperatures, particularly across the western
coastal states. A thermal trough begins to set up across CA late
next week, further drying fuelscapes across the region as
temperatures reach into the 100s in valley/interior locations.
..Williams.. 08/16/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more1 week 3 days ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0458 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025
Valid 181200Z - 241200Z
...Day 3-5/Monday-Wednesday...
An expanding and strengthening mid-level ridge over the Four Corners
region will bring above normal temperatures but relatively light
winds to much of the Intermountain West through the midweek.
Mid-level troughing across the Pacific Northwest is expected to
begin translating northeastward along the northern periphery of the
ridge by Day 5/Wednesday, inviting drier conditions to filter into
the Northwestern U.S. Ridge positioning will also usher in a
northward surge of elevated monsoon moisture into the Desert
Southwest by Day 4/Tuesday and by Day 5/Wednesday across the Eastern
Great Basin. A dry boundary layer in place across the Four Corners
and Great Basin regions will support limited rainfall from higher
terrain convection and thunderstorms. Fuels are expected to remain
quite dry and receptive across this region with a particular threat
from new lightning ignitions. A 10 percent probability area for dry
thunderstorms was introduced for Day 5/Wednesday. Farther north, the
mid-level trough could support additional thunderstorms across
portions of the central/northern ID and western MT Day
4-5/Tuesday-Wednesday but some uncertainty regarding antecedent
rainfall distribution along with marginal fuel dryness precludes
introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time.
...Day 6-8/Thursday-Saturday...
Deeper monsoon moisture moving into Great Basin, with PWATs around
1.00 inch as well as rising surface dewpoints/relative humidity,
should begin to limit dry lightning potential late in the week
across the Great Basin and Four Corners regions with at least some
wetting rains expected. Nonetheless, multiple days of higher terrain
showers and thunderstorms will expand across much of the
Intermountain West late next week. Lighter winds overall are
expected under a building ridge over the Western U.S. along with
steadily increasing temperatures, particularly across the western
coastal states. A thermal trough begins to set up across CA late
next week, further drying fuelscapes across the region as
temperatures reach into the 100s in valley/interior locations.
..Williams.. 08/16/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
