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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 14:36:15 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 15:22:15 GMT

WW 0483 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0483 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 14:36:15 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 14:36:15 GMT

Issued at 800 AM MST Thu Jul 03 2025 557 WTPZ41 KNHC 031434 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 800 AM MST Thu Jul 03 2025 Flossie is now a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds with no associated convection as it moves over colder sea surface temperatures to the southwest of Baja California Sur. The initial intensity is decreased to a somewhat uncertain 40 kt in agreement with the latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. Flossie should continue to steadily weaken, with the cyclone expected to become a post-tropical low later today and a remnant low tonight. The system should dissipate completely by 60 h. The initial motion is 300/9. A generally northwestward to west-northwestward should continue to the next 36 h or so, followed by a gradual bend more toward the west-northwest. The new track forecast is close to the previous forecast and the consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 20.6N 111.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 21.4N 112.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 04/1200Z 22.6N 114.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0000Z 23.6N 116.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1200Z 24.3N 117.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 03 2025 756 FOPZ11 KNHC 031433 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 1500 UTC THU JUL 03 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 800 AM MST Thu Jul 03 2025 597 WTPZ31 KNHC 031433 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Flossie Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 800 AM MST Thu Jul 03 2025 ...FLOSSIE WEAKENING RAPIDLY OVER COOL WATER... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 111.7W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 111.7 West. Flossie is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a general west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is expected during the next day or so, with the system forecast to become a post-tropical low later today and a remnant low by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...FLOSSIE WEAKENING RAPIDLY OVER COOL WATER... As of 8:00 AM MST Thu Jul 03 the center of Flossie was located near 20.6, -111.7 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 03 2025 167 WTPZ21 KNHC 031433 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 1500 UTC THU JUL 03 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 111.7W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 111.7W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 111.3W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.4N 112.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.6N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 23.6N 116.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 24.3N 117.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 111.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

No watches are valid as of Thu Jul 3 14:10:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0713 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and northern Plains today. ...Northern Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates a weak disturbance over western ND is cresting a central U.S. upper ridge. An upstream minor perturbation is forecast to move from northern WY/MT eastward into western ND by late afternoon/evening. Coincident with this feature, an elongated weak low is forecast from the north-central High Plains northward into SK, with an attendant warm frontal zone draped east-southeast from ND into the Upper Midwest. A seasonably moist boundary layer is indicated by morning surface observations. Dewpoints currently range from the lower 60s deg F over ND to upper 60s to near 70 in central and eastern SD. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates coupled with heating in wake of morning cloud debris/shower activity, will likely result in a weakly capped and very unstable airmass by mid-late afternoon over ND where low-level moisture is maximized. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to develop 20-23 UTC with a few supercells possible. A risk for very large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany the supercells before storm outflow and mergers leading to upscale growth into one or two eastward-moving clusters during the evening. Have introduced a significant wind highlight for potential peak gusts in the 70-85 mph range. A focused mesoscale wind corridor is indicated by some 00z HREF and MPAS members but sufficient model variability precludes higher probabilities at this time. This activity will likely weaken late this evening as it approaches the Red River and adjacent portions of northern MN. ...Northeast... An upper trough with an embedded 40-50 kt mid-level speed maximum will pivot across the Northeast today. A related surface cold front will likewise develop eastward across this region through the afternoon/evening. Heating will act to destabilize a moist airmass and support weak to moderate buoyancy (500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) along/ahead of the cold front by early afternoon. Sufficient deep-layer shear will favor multicellular and some transient supercell organization. Scattered damaging (50-65 mph) winds should be the primary severe threat as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen. But, some large hail may occur given favorable shear, especially with any supercell. The severe risk will likely diminish by the early to mid evening as thunderstorms push east of the coast. ...Upper Midwest... Weak forcing aloft and the persistence of the upper ridge should tend to limit convective development in an otherwise moderately to strongly unstable airmass. Still, any thunderstorms which can develop, perhaps aided by modest low-level warm advection this evening/tonight, could pose an isolated severe hail/wind threat. ..Smith/Broyles.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0713 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and northern Plains today. ...Northern Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates a weak disturbance over western ND is cresting a central U.S. upper ridge. An upstream minor perturbation is forecast to move from northern WY/MT eastward into western ND by late afternoon/evening. Coincident with this feature, an elongated weak low is forecast from the north-central High Plains northward into SK, with an attendant warm frontal zone draped east-southeast from ND into the Upper Midwest. A seasonably moist boundary layer is indicated by morning surface observations. Dewpoints currently range from the lower 60s deg F over ND to upper 60s to near 70 in central and eastern SD. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates coupled with heating in wake of morning cloud debris/shower activity, will likely result in a weakly capped and very unstable airmass by mid-late afternoon over ND where low-level moisture is maximized. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to develop 20-23 UTC with a few supercells possible. A risk for very large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany the supercells before storm outflow and mergers leading to upscale growth into one or two eastward-moving clusters during the evening. Have introduced a significant wind highlight for potential peak gusts in the 70-85 mph range. A focused mesoscale wind corridor is indicated by some 00z HREF and MPAS members but sufficient model variability precludes higher probabilities at this time. This activity will likely weaken late this evening as it approaches the Red River and adjacent portions of northern MN. ...Northeast... An upper trough with an embedded 40-50 kt mid-level speed maximum will pivot across the Northeast today. A related surface cold front will likewise develop eastward across this region through the afternoon/evening. Heating will act to destabilize a moist airmass and support weak to moderate buoyancy (500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) along/ahead of the cold front by early afternoon. Sufficient deep-layer shear will favor multicellular and some transient supercell organization. Scattered damaging (50-65 mph) winds should be the primary severe threat as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen. But, some large hail may occur given favorable shear, especially with any supercell. The severe risk will likely diminish by the early to mid evening as thunderstorms push east of the coast. ...Upper Midwest... Weak forcing aloft and the persistence of the upper ridge should tend to limit convective development in an otherwise moderately to strongly unstable airmass. Still, any thunderstorms which can develop, perhaps aided by modest low-level warm advection this evening/tonight, could pose an isolated severe hail/wind threat. ..Smith/Broyles.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0713 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and northern Plains today. ...Northern Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates a weak disturbance over western ND is cresting a central U.S. upper ridge. An upstream minor perturbation is forecast to move from northern WY/MT eastward into western ND by late afternoon/evening. Coincident with this feature, an elongated weak low is forecast from the north-central High Plains northward into SK, with an attendant warm frontal zone draped east-southeast from ND into the Upper Midwest. A seasonably moist boundary layer is indicated by morning surface observations. Dewpoints currently range from the lower 60s deg F over ND to upper 60s to near 70 in central and eastern SD. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates coupled with heating in wake of morning cloud debris/shower activity, will likely result in a weakly capped and very unstable airmass by mid-late afternoon over ND where low-level moisture is maximized. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to develop 20-23 UTC with a few supercells possible. A risk for very large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany the supercells before storm outflow and mergers leading to upscale growth into one or two eastward-moving clusters during the evening. Have introduced a significant wind highlight for potential peak gusts in the 70-85 mph range. A focused mesoscale wind corridor is indicated by some 00z HREF and MPAS members but sufficient model variability precludes higher probabilities at this time. This activity will likely weaken late this evening as it approaches the Red River and adjacent portions of northern MN. ...Northeast... An upper trough with an embedded 40-50 kt mid-level speed maximum will pivot across the Northeast today. A related surface cold front will likewise develop eastward across this region through the afternoon/evening. Heating will act to destabilize a moist airmass and support weak to moderate buoyancy (500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) along/ahead of the cold front by early afternoon. Sufficient deep-layer shear will favor multicellular and some transient supercell organization. Scattered damaging (50-65 mph) winds should be the primary severe threat as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen. But, some large hail may occur given favorable shear, especially with any supercell. The severe risk will likely diminish by the early to mid evening as thunderstorms push east of the coast. ...Upper Midwest... Weak forcing aloft and the persistence of the upper ridge should tend to limit convective development in an otherwise moderately to strongly unstable airmass. Still, any thunderstorms which can develop, perhaps aided by modest low-level warm advection this evening/tonight, could pose an isolated severe hail/wind threat. ..Smith/Broyles.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0713 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and northern Plains today. ...Northern Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates a weak disturbance over western ND is cresting a central U.S. upper ridge. An upstream minor perturbation is forecast to move from northern WY/MT eastward into western ND by late afternoon/evening. Coincident with this feature, an elongated weak low is forecast from the north-central High Plains northward into SK, with an attendant warm frontal zone draped east-southeast from ND into the Upper Midwest. A seasonably moist boundary layer is indicated by morning surface observations. Dewpoints currently range from the lower 60s deg F over ND to upper 60s to near 70 in central and eastern SD. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates coupled with heating in wake of morning cloud debris/shower activity, will likely result in a weakly capped and very unstable airmass by mid-late afternoon over ND where low-level moisture is maximized. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to develop 20-23 UTC with a few supercells possible. A risk for very large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany the supercells before storm outflow and mergers leading to upscale growth into one or two eastward-moving clusters during the evening. Have introduced a significant wind highlight for potential peak gusts in the 70-85 mph range. A focused mesoscale wind corridor is indicated by some 00z HREF and MPAS members but sufficient model variability precludes higher probabilities at this time. This activity will likely weaken late this evening as it approaches the Red River and adjacent portions of northern MN. ...Northeast... An upper trough with an embedded 40-50 kt mid-level speed maximum will pivot across the Northeast today. A related surface cold front will likewise develop eastward across this region through the afternoon/evening. Heating will act to destabilize a moist airmass and support weak to moderate buoyancy (500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) along/ahead of the cold front by early afternoon. Sufficient deep-layer shear will favor multicellular and some transient supercell organization. Scattered damaging (50-65 mph) winds should be the primary severe threat as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen. But, some large hail may occur given favorable shear, especially with any supercell. The severe risk will likely diminish by the early to mid evening as thunderstorms push east of the coast. ...Upper Midwest... Weak forcing aloft and the persistence of the upper ridge should tend to limit convective development in an otherwise moderately to strongly unstable airmass. Still, any thunderstorms which can develop, perhaps aided by modest low-level warm advection this evening/tonight, could pose an isolated severe hail/wind threat. ..Smith/Broyles.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0713 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and northern Plains today. ...Northern Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates a weak disturbance over western ND is cresting a central U.S. upper ridge. An upstream minor perturbation is forecast to move from northern WY/MT eastward into western ND by late afternoon/evening. Coincident with this feature, an elongated weak low is forecast from the north-central High Plains northward into SK, with an attendant warm frontal zone draped east-southeast from ND into the Upper Midwest. A seasonably moist boundary layer is indicated by morning surface observations. Dewpoints currently range from the lower 60s deg F over ND to upper 60s to near 70 in central and eastern SD. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates coupled with heating in wake of morning cloud debris/shower activity, will likely result in a weakly capped and very unstable airmass by mid-late afternoon over ND where low-level moisture is maximized. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to develop 20-23 UTC with a few supercells possible. A risk for very large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany the supercells before storm outflow and mergers leading to upscale growth into one or two eastward-moving clusters during the evening. Have introduced a significant wind highlight for potential peak gusts in the 70-85 mph range. A focused mesoscale wind corridor is indicated by some 00z HREF and MPAS members but sufficient model variability precludes higher probabilities at this time. This activity will likely weaken late this evening as it approaches the Red River and adjacent portions of northern MN. ...Northeast... An upper trough with an embedded 40-50 kt mid-level speed maximum will pivot across the Northeast today. A related surface cold front will likewise develop eastward across this region through the afternoon/evening. Heating will act to destabilize a moist airmass and support weak to moderate buoyancy (500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) along/ahead of the cold front by early afternoon. Sufficient deep-layer shear will favor multicellular and some transient supercell organization. Scattered damaging (50-65 mph) winds should be the primary severe threat as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen. But, some large hail may occur given favorable shear, especially with any supercell. The severe risk will likely diminish by the early to mid evening as thunderstorms push east of the coast. ...Upper Midwest... Weak forcing aloft and the persistence of the upper ridge should tend to limit convective development in an otherwise moderately to strongly unstable airmass. Still, any thunderstorms which can develop, perhaps aided by modest low-level warm advection this evening/tonight, could pose an isolated severe hail/wind threat. ..Smith/Broyles.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0713 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and northern Plains today. ...Northern Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates a weak disturbance over western ND is cresting a central U.S. upper ridge. An upstream minor perturbation is forecast to move from northern WY/MT eastward into western ND by late afternoon/evening. Coincident with this feature, an elongated weak low is forecast from the north-central High Plains northward into SK, with an attendant warm frontal zone draped east-southeast from ND into the Upper Midwest. A seasonably moist boundary layer is indicated by morning surface observations. Dewpoints currently range from the lower 60s deg F over ND to upper 60s to near 70 in central and eastern SD. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates coupled with heating in wake of morning cloud debris/shower activity, will likely result in a weakly capped and very unstable airmass by mid-late afternoon over ND where low-level moisture is maximized. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to develop 20-23 UTC with a few supercells possible. A risk for very large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany the supercells before storm outflow and mergers leading to upscale growth into one or two eastward-moving clusters during the evening. Have introduced a significant wind highlight for potential peak gusts in the 70-85 mph range. A focused mesoscale wind corridor is indicated by some 00z HREF and MPAS members but sufficient model variability precludes higher probabilities at this time. This activity will likely weaken late this evening as it approaches the Red River and adjacent portions of northern MN. ...Northeast... An upper trough with an embedded 40-50 kt mid-level speed maximum will pivot across the Northeast today. A related surface cold front will likewise develop eastward across this region through the afternoon/evening. Heating will act to destabilize a moist airmass and support weak to moderate buoyancy (500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) along/ahead of the cold front by early afternoon. Sufficient deep-layer shear will favor multicellular and some transient supercell organization. Scattered damaging (50-65 mph) winds should be the primary severe threat as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen. But, some large hail may occur given favorable shear, especially with any supercell. The severe risk will likely diminish by the early to mid evening as thunderstorms push east of the coast. ...Upper Midwest... Weak forcing aloft and the persistence of the upper ridge should tend to limit convective development in an otherwise moderately to strongly unstable airmass. Still, any thunderstorms which can develop, perhaps aided by modest low-level warm advection this evening/tonight, could pose an isolated severe hail/wind threat. ..Smith/Broyles.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0713 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and northern Plains today. ...Northern Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates a weak disturbance over western ND is cresting a central U.S. upper ridge. An upstream minor perturbation is forecast to move from northern WY/MT eastward into western ND by late afternoon/evening. Coincident with this feature, an elongated weak low is forecast from the north-central High Plains northward into SK, with an attendant warm frontal zone draped east-southeast from ND into the Upper Midwest. A seasonably moist boundary layer is indicated by morning surface observations. Dewpoints currently range from the lower 60s deg F over ND to upper 60s to near 70 in central and eastern SD. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates coupled with heating in wake of morning cloud debris/shower activity, will likely result in a weakly capped and very unstable airmass by mid-late afternoon over ND where low-level moisture is maximized. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to develop 20-23 UTC with a few supercells possible. A risk for very large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany the supercells before storm outflow and mergers leading to upscale growth into one or two eastward-moving clusters during the evening. Have introduced a significant wind highlight for potential peak gusts in the 70-85 mph range. A focused mesoscale wind corridor is indicated by some 00z HREF and MPAS members but sufficient model variability precludes higher probabilities at this time. This activity will likely weaken late this evening as it approaches the Red River and adjacent portions of northern MN. ...Northeast... An upper trough with an embedded 40-50 kt mid-level speed maximum will pivot across the Northeast today. A related surface cold front will likewise develop eastward across this region through the afternoon/evening. Heating will act to destabilize a moist airmass and support weak to moderate buoyancy (500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) along/ahead of the cold front by early afternoon. Sufficient deep-layer shear will favor multicellular and some transient supercell organization. Scattered damaging (50-65 mph) winds should be the primary severe threat as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen. But, some large hail may occur given favorable shear, especially with any supercell. The severe risk will likely diminish by the early to mid evening as thunderstorms push east of the coast. ...Upper Midwest... Weak forcing aloft and the persistence of the upper ridge should tend to limit convective development in an otherwise moderately to strongly unstable airmass. Still, any thunderstorms which can develop, perhaps aided by modest low-level warm advection this evening/tonight, could pose an isolated severe hail/wind threat. ..Smith/Broyles.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0713 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and northern Plains today. ...Northern Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates a weak disturbance over western ND is cresting a central U.S. upper ridge. An upstream minor perturbation is forecast to move from northern WY/MT eastward into western ND by late afternoon/evening. Coincident with this feature, an elongated weak low is forecast from the north-central High Plains northward into SK, with an attendant warm frontal zone draped east-southeast from ND into the Upper Midwest. A seasonably moist boundary layer is indicated by morning surface observations. Dewpoints currently range from the lower 60s deg F over ND to upper 60s to near 70 in central and eastern SD. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates coupled with heating in wake of morning cloud debris/shower activity, will likely result in a weakly capped and very unstable airmass by mid-late afternoon over ND where low-level moisture is maximized. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to develop 20-23 UTC with a few supercells possible. A risk for very large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany the supercells before storm outflow and mergers leading to upscale growth into one or two eastward-moving clusters during the evening. Have introduced a significant wind highlight for potential peak gusts in the 70-85 mph range. A focused mesoscale wind corridor is indicated by some 00z HREF and MPAS members but sufficient model variability precludes higher probabilities at this time. This activity will likely weaken late this evening as it approaches the Red River and adjacent portions of northern MN. ...Northeast... An upper trough with an embedded 40-50 kt mid-level speed maximum will pivot across the Northeast today. A related surface cold front will likewise develop eastward across this region through the afternoon/evening. Heating will act to destabilize a moist airmass and support weak to moderate buoyancy (500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) along/ahead of the cold front by early afternoon. Sufficient deep-layer shear will favor multicellular and some transient supercell organization. Scattered damaging (50-65 mph) winds should be the primary severe threat as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen. But, some large hail may occur given favorable shear, especially with any supercell. The severe risk will likely diminish by the early to mid evening as thunderstorms push east of the coast. ...Upper Midwest... Weak forcing aloft and the persistence of the upper ridge should tend to limit convective development in an otherwise moderately to strongly unstable airmass. Still, any thunderstorms which can develop, perhaps aided by modest low-level warm advection this evening/tonight, could pose an isolated severe hail/wind threat. ..Smith/Broyles.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0713 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and northern Plains today. ...Northern Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates a weak disturbance over western ND is cresting a central U.S. upper ridge. An upstream minor perturbation is forecast to move from northern WY/MT eastward into western ND by late afternoon/evening. Coincident with this feature, an elongated weak low is forecast from the north-central High Plains northward into SK, with an attendant warm frontal zone draped east-southeast from ND into the Upper Midwest. A seasonably moist boundary layer is indicated by morning surface observations. Dewpoints currently range from the lower 60s deg F over ND to upper 60s to near 70 in central and eastern SD. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates coupled with heating in wake of morning cloud debris/shower activity, will likely result in a weakly capped and very unstable airmass by mid-late afternoon over ND where low-level moisture is maximized. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to develop 20-23 UTC with a few supercells possible. A risk for very large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany the supercells before storm outflow and mergers leading to upscale growth into one or two eastward-moving clusters during the evening. Have introduced a significant wind highlight for potential peak gusts in the 70-85 mph range. A focused mesoscale wind corridor is indicated by some 00z HREF and MPAS members but sufficient model variability precludes higher probabilities at this time. This activity will likely weaken late this evening as it approaches the Red River and adjacent portions of northern MN. ...Northeast... An upper trough with an embedded 40-50 kt mid-level speed maximum will pivot across the Northeast today. A related surface cold front will likewise develop eastward across this region through the afternoon/evening. Heating will act to destabilize a moist airmass and support weak to moderate buoyancy (500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) along/ahead of the cold front by early afternoon. Sufficient deep-layer shear will favor multicellular and some transient supercell organization. Scattered damaging (50-65 mph) winds should be the primary severe threat as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen. But, some large hail may occur given favorable shear, especially with any supercell. The severe risk will likely diminish by the early to mid evening as thunderstorms push east of the coast. ...Upper Midwest... Weak forcing aloft and the persistence of the upper ridge should tend to limit convective development in an otherwise moderately to strongly unstable airmass. Still, any thunderstorms which can develop, perhaps aided by modest low-level warm advection this evening/tonight, could pose an isolated severe hail/wind threat. ..Smith/Broyles.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0713 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and northern Plains today. ...Northern Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates a weak disturbance over western ND is cresting a central U.S. upper ridge. An upstream minor perturbation is forecast to move from northern WY/MT eastward into western ND by late afternoon/evening. Coincident with this feature, an elongated weak low is forecast from the north-central High Plains northward into SK, with an attendant warm frontal zone draped east-southeast from ND into the Upper Midwest. A seasonably moist boundary layer is indicated by morning surface observations. Dewpoints currently range from the lower 60s deg F over ND to upper 60s to near 70 in central and eastern SD. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates coupled with heating in wake of morning cloud debris/shower activity, will likely result in a weakly capped and very unstable airmass by mid-late afternoon over ND where low-level moisture is maximized. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to develop 20-23 UTC with a few supercells possible. A risk for very large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany the supercells before storm outflow and mergers leading to upscale growth into one or two eastward-moving clusters during the evening. Have introduced a significant wind highlight for potential peak gusts in the 70-85 mph range. A focused mesoscale wind corridor is indicated by some 00z HREF and MPAS members but sufficient model variability precludes higher probabilities at this time. This activity will likely weaken late this evening as it approaches the Red River and adjacent portions of northern MN. ...Northeast... An upper trough with an embedded 40-50 kt mid-level speed maximum will pivot across the Northeast today. A related surface cold front will likewise develop eastward across this region through the afternoon/evening. Heating will act to destabilize a moist airmass and support weak to moderate buoyancy (500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) along/ahead of the cold front by early afternoon. Sufficient deep-layer shear will favor multicellular and some transient supercell organization. Scattered damaging (50-65 mph) winds should be the primary severe threat as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen. But, some large hail may occur given favorable shear, especially with any supercell. The severe risk will likely diminish by the early to mid evening as thunderstorms push east of the coast. ...Upper Midwest... Weak forcing aloft and the persistence of the upper ridge should tend to limit convective development in an otherwise moderately to strongly unstable airmass. Still, any thunderstorms which can develop, perhaps aided by modest low-level warm advection this evening/tonight, could pose an isolated severe hail/wind threat. ..Smith/Broyles.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0713 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and northern Plains today. ...Northern Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates a weak disturbance over western ND is cresting a central U.S. upper ridge. An upstream minor perturbation is forecast to move from northern WY/MT eastward into western ND by late afternoon/evening. Coincident with this feature, an elongated weak low is forecast from the north-central High Plains northward into SK, with an attendant warm frontal zone draped east-southeast from ND into the Upper Midwest. A seasonably moist boundary layer is indicated by morning surface observations. Dewpoints currently range from the lower 60s deg F over ND to upper 60s to near 70 in central and eastern SD. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates coupled with heating in wake of morning cloud debris/shower activity, will likely result in a weakly capped and very unstable airmass by mid-late afternoon over ND where low-level moisture is maximized. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to develop 20-23 UTC with a few supercells possible. A risk for very large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany the supercells before storm outflow and mergers leading to upscale growth into one or two eastward-moving clusters during the evening. Have introduced a significant wind highlight for potential peak gusts in the 70-85 mph range. A focused mesoscale wind corridor is indicated by some 00z HREF and MPAS members but sufficient model variability precludes higher probabilities at this time. This activity will likely weaken late this evening as it approaches the Red River and adjacent portions of northern MN. ...Northeast... An upper trough with an embedded 40-50 kt mid-level speed maximum will pivot across the Northeast today. A related surface cold front will likewise develop eastward across this region through the afternoon/evening. Heating will act to destabilize a moist airmass and support weak to moderate buoyancy (500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) along/ahead of the cold front by early afternoon. Sufficient deep-layer shear will favor multicellular and some transient supercell organization. Scattered damaging (50-65 mph) winds should be the primary severe threat as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen. But, some large hail may occur given favorable shear, especially with any supercell. The severe risk will likely diminish by the early to mid evening as thunderstorms push east of the coast. ...Upper Midwest... Weak forcing aloft and the persistence of the upper ridge should tend to limit convective development in an otherwise moderately to strongly unstable airmass. Still, any thunderstorms which can develop, perhaps aided by modest low-level warm advection this evening/tonight, could pose an isolated severe hail/wind threat. ..Smith/Broyles.. 07/03/2025 Read more