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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected mainly over the central to northern Plains, and perhaps late toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A trio of shortwave troughs will affect parts of the northern CONUS on Friday, with widely-scattered strong to severe storms most likely with the system moving across the Plains. This wave will lift northeastward out of the high Plains during the day, with temporary shortwave ridging over the upper MS Valley. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively warm, though some cooling will occur over the western Dakotas and NE. At the surface, a cold front will slowly develop into the western Dakotas during the day, with a trough extending southward along the CO/KS border. This front will push into NE and western MN overnight, maintaining a focus for continues storms. Southerly winds will maintain substantial low-level moisture ahead of the front with dewpoints from the mid 60s to lower 70s F contributing to moderate overall instability. ...Dakotas into MN... Storms are likely to develop near the surface trough from central NE into SD, and especially near the cold front over ND where lift will be strongest. Instability will also be stronger from ND into northern MN, and mixed storms modes may produce both damaging gusts and isolated hail. This activity will likely persist through the nigh across much of western and northern MN, with perhaps more isolated storms persisting farther south into southern MN/western IA. ...NE into western KS... Strong heating and low-level convergence within the surface trough will combine with a moist air mass and support least isolated afternoon storms from far eastern CO into western KS and vicinity. Shear will be weak, with veering winds with height supporting southeastward-propagating storms capable of locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected mainly over the central to northern Plains, and perhaps late toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A trio of shortwave troughs will affect parts of the northern CONUS on Friday, with widely-scattered strong to severe storms most likely with the system moving across the Plains. This wave will lift northeastward out of the high Plains during the day, with temporary shortwave ridging over the upper MS Valley. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively warm, though some cooling will occur over the western Dakotas and NE. At the surface, a cold front will slowly develop into the western Dakotas during the day, with a trough extending southward along the CO/KS border. This front will push into NE and western MN overnight, maintaining a focus for continues storms. Southerly winds will maintain substantial low-level moisture ahead of the front with dewpoints from the mid 60s to lower 70s F contributing to moderate overall instability. ...Dakotas into MN... Storms are likely to develop near the surface trough from central NE into SD, and especially near the cold front over ND where lift will be strongest. Instability will also be stronger from ND into northern MN, and mixed storms modes may produce both damaging gusts and isolated hail. This activity will likely persist through the nigh across much of western and northern MN, with perhaps more isolated storms persisting farther south into southern MN/western IA. ...NE into western KS... Strong heating and low-level convergence within the surface trough will combine with a moist air mass and support least isolated afternoon storms from far eastern CO into western KS and vicinity. Shear will be weak, with veering winds with height supporting southeastward-propagating storms capable of locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected mainly over the central to northern Plains, and perhaps late toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A trio of shortwave troughs will affect parts of the northern CONUS on Friday, with widely-scattered strong to severe storms most likely with the system moving across the Plains. This wave will lift northeastward out of the high Plains during the day, with temporary shortwave ridging over the upper MS Valley. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively warm, though some cooling will occur over the western Dakotas and NE. At the surface, a cold front will slowly develop into the western Dakotas during the day, with a trough extending southward along the CO/KS border. This front will push into NE and western MN overnight, maintaining a focus for continues storms. Southerly winds will maintain substantial low-level moisture ahead of the front with dewpoints from the mid 60s to lower 70s F contributing to moderate overall instability. ...Dakotas into MN... Storms are likely to develop near the surface trough from central NE into SD, and especially near the cold front over ND where lift will be strongest. Instability will also be stronger from ND into northern MN, and mixed storms modes may produce both damaging gusts and isolated hail. This activity will likely persist through the nigh across much of western and northern MN, with perhaps more isolated storms persisting farther south into southern MN/western IA. ...NE into western KS... Strong heating and low-level convergence within the surface trough will combine with a moist air mass and support least isolated afternoon storms from far eastern CO into western KS and vicinity. Shear will be weak, with veering winds with height supporting southeastward-propagating storms capable of locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected mainly over the central to northern Plains, and perhaps late toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A trio of shortwave troughs will affect parts of the northern CONUS on Friday, with widely-scattered strong to severe storms most likely with the system moving across the Plains. This wave will lift northeastward out of the high Plains during the day, with temporary shortwave ridging over the upper MS Valley. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively warm, though some cooling will occur over the western Dakotas and NE. At the surface, a cold front will slowly develop into the western Dakotas during the day, with a trough extending southward along the CO/KS border. This front will push into NE and western MN overnight, maintaining a focus for continues storms. Southerly winds will maintain substantial low-level moisture ahead of the front with dewpoints from the mid 60s to lower 70s F contributing to moderate overall instability. ...Dakotas into MN... Storms are likely to develop near the surface trough from central NE into SD, and especially near the cold front over ND where lift will be strongest. Instability will also be stronger from ND into northern MN, and mixed storms modes may produce both damaging gusts and isolated hail. This activity will likely persist through the nigh across much of western and northern MN, with perhaps more isolated storms persisting farther south into southern MN/western IA. ...NE into western KS... Strong heating and low-level convergence within the surface trough will combine with a moist air mass and support least isolated afternoon storms from far eastern CO into western KS and vicinity. Shear will be weak, with veering winds with height supporting southeastward-propagating storms capable of locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/03/2025 Read more

MD 1547 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 483... FOR NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 1547 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Areas affected...New England Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 483... Valid 031617Z - 031815Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 483 continues. SUMMARY...Primary severe potential, from isolated to scattered damaging winds, will be largely focused across central/eastern Maine and far southeast New Hampshire. Potential exists for a separate area of storms over the Champlain Valley to intensify downstream later this afternoon. DISCUSSION...A broken thin band of quasi-linear convection is ongoing from northern ME to the NH/MA border area. The recent consolidation into linear structures should modulate the earlier large hail threat. But this will support an increasing damaging wind risk as storms impinge on a warm/unstable boundary layer downstream. Low to mid 80s surface temperatures combined with dew points holding in the low to mid 60s is yielding modest buoyancy with MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg. Strong gusts will be possible as this initial round spreads off the coast/into NB. Farther west, stabilization in the wake of this leading convection will yield a lull in severe potential. But the primary lobe of ascent supporting convection across the Champlain Valley into QC should spread across at least northern VT/NH into western ME through late afternoon. There should be an adequate gap of destabilization between the two regimes for a marginal severe threat, although there is below-average confidence on whether sufficient recovery will occur for a scattered damaging wind threat. ..Grams.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV... LAT...LON 45007271 46187063 46966808 46706719 45206680 44646705 42387090 42437174 43017147 43327174 43607241 43777324 44017400 44487354 45007271 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0484 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0484 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0483 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 483 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1547. ..GRAMS..07/03/25 ATTN...WFO...GYX...CAR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 483 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MEC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029- 031-031840- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDROSCOGGIN AROOSTOOK CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN HANCOCK KENNEBEC KNOX LINCOLN OXFORD PENOBSCOT PISCATAQUIS SAGADAHOC SOMERSET WALDO WASHINGTON YORK NHC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-031840- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELKNAP CARROLL CHESHIRE COOS GRAFTON HILLSBOROUGH MERRIMACK ROCKINGHAM STRAFFORD SULLIVAN Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031713
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Flossie, located in the eastern Pacific basin, a couple of
hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, partly
associated with a tropical wave, is centered a few hundred miles
south of southern Mexico. Gradual development of this system is
expected during the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form over the weekend or early next week while it moves
generally west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...Central California... An approaching mid-level short wave trough will promote enhanced dry downslope winds along and leeward of the Diablo Range into the San Joaquin Valley this afternoon. West-northwest winds of 10-15 mph with locally sustained 20 mph combined with relative humidity as low as 10% will support a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions amid dry fuels. ...Northern Great Basin and Upper-Colorado River Basin... Isolated dry thunderstorm threat was expanded into south-central OR and north-central NV with latest model guidance and observed soundings indicating precipitable water values holding in the 0.50-0.80 inch range for this afternoon. The advancing short-wave trough will support faster storm motions particularly across southeastern OR. In addition, falling 500 DM heights and mid-level jet support will keep a nocturnal thunderstorm threat for southeastern OR and southern Idaho through 12Z Friday. Otherwise, a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms across the Upper CO River Basin and central Mountains of UT could support new ignitions in pockets of existing dry fuels. ..Williams.. 07/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough moving across northern CA will accompany 40-50 kt westerly flow across the northern Great Basin. This will encourage dry downslope flow across parts of western NV and the northern Great Basin. At the same time, continued monsoon moisture will allow scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Intermountain West with isolated lightning. ...Northern Great Basin... Dry and breezy conditions are expected today and tonight in the lee of the Sierra and northern Great Basin ahead of the shortwave trough. Sustained 15-20 mph surface winds are expected from the west/southwest through the day. A dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15-20%. Despite some recent rainfall, area fuels remain receptive across much of NV and the northern Great Basin. Widespread elevated and locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunder... As the upper trough moves into the West, monsoon moisture will be shunted eastward compared to the last several days. Still, PWATS around 0.6-0.8 inches across western CO and into the northern Rockies will be sufficient to support scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Fuel receptiveness has decreased with multiple rounds of showers and storms this week. Still, drier pockets remain and lightning outside of the heavier precipitation cores will be capable of ignitions. This appears most likely over parts of northern CO to eastern ID, where less rainfall has been observed. Will maintain IsoDryT highlights for occasional lighting strikes within receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...Central California... An approaching mid-level short wave trough will promote enhanced dry downslope winds along and leeward of the Diablo Range into the San Joaquin Valley this afternoon. West-northwest winds of 10-15 mph with locally sustained 20 mph combined with relative humidity as low as 10% will support a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions amid dry fuels. ...Northern Great Basin and Upper-Colorado River Basin... Isolated dry thunderstorm threat was expanded into south-central OR and north-central NV with latest model guidance and observed soundings indicating precipitable water values holding in the 0.50-0.80 inch range for this afternoon. The advancing short-wave trough will support faster storm motions particularly across southeastern OR. In addition, falling 500 DM heights and mid-level jet support will keep a nocturnal thunderstorm threat for southeastern OR and southern Idaho through 12Z Friday. Otherwise, a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms across the Upper CO River Basin and central Mountains of UT could support new ignitions in pockets of existing dry fuels. ..Williams.. 07/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough moving across northern CA will accompany 40-50 kt westerly flow across the northern Great Basin. This will encourage dry downslope flow across parts of western NV and the northern Great Basin. At the same time, continued monsoon moisture will allow scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Intermountain West with isolated lightning. ...Northern Great Basin... Dry and breezy conditions are expected today and tonight in the lee of the Sierra and northern Great Basin ahead of the shortwave trough. Sustained 15-20 mph surface winds are expected from the west/southwest through the day. A dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15-20%. Despite some recent rainfall, area fuels remain receptive across much of NV and the northern Great Basin. Widespread elevated and locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunder... As the upper trough moves into the West, monsoon moisture will be shunted eastward compared to the last several days. Still, PWATS around 0.6-0.8 inches across western CO and into the northern Rockies will be sufficient to support scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Fuel receptiveness has decreased with multiple rounds of showers and storms this week. Still, drier pockets remain and lightning outside of the heavier precipitation cores will be capable of ignitions. This appears most likely over parts of northern CO to eastern ID, where less rainfall has been observed. Will maintain IsoDryT highlights for occasional lighting strikes within receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...Central California... An approaching mid-level short wave trough will promote enhanced dry downslope winds along and leeward of the Diablo Range into the San Joaquin Valley this afternoon. West-northwest winds of 10-15 mph with locally sustained 20 mph combined with relative humidity as low as 10% will support a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions amid dry fuels. ...Northern Great Basin and Upper-Colorado River Basin... Isolated dry thunderstorm threat was expanded into south-central OR and north-central NV with latest model guidance and observed soundings indicating precipitable water values holding in the 0.50-0.80 inch range for this afternoon. The advancing short-wave trough will support faster storm motions particularly across southeastern OR. In addition, falling 500 DM heights and mid-level jet support will keep a nocturnal thunderstorm threat for southeastern OR and southern Idaho through 12Z Friday. Otherwise, a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms across the Upper CO River Basin and central Mountains of UT could support new ignitions in pockets of existing dry fuels. ..Williams.. 07/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough moving across northern CA will accompany 40-50 kt westerly flow across the northern Great Basin. This will encourage dry downslope flow across parts of western NV and the northern Great Basin. At the same time, continued monsoon moisture will allow scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Intermountain West with isolated lightning. ...Northern Great Basin... Dry and breezy conditions are expected today and tonight in the lee of the Sierra and northern Great Basin ahead of the shortwave trough. Sustained 15-20 mph surface winds are expected from the west/southwest through the day. A dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15-20%. Despite some recent rainfall, area fuels remain receptive across much of NV and the northern Great Basin. Widespread elevated and locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunder... As the upper trough moves into the West, monsoon moisture will be shunted eastward compared to the last several days. Still, PWATS around 0.6-0.8 inches across western CO and into the northern Rockies will be sufficient to support scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Fuel receptiveness has decreased with multiple rounds of showers and storms this week. Still, drier pockets remain and lightning outside of the heavier precipitation cores will be capable of ignitions. This appears most likely over parts of northern CO to eastern ID, where less rainfall has been observed. Will maintain IsoDryT highlights for occasional lighting strikes within receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...Central California... An approaching mid-level short wave trough will promote enhanced dry downslope winds along and leeward of the Diablo Range into the San Joaquin Valley this afternoon. West-northwest winds of 10-15 mph with locally sustained 20 mph combined with relative humidity as low as 10% will support a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions amid dry fuels. ...Northern Great Basin and Upper-Colorado River Basin... Isolated dry thunderstorm threat was expanded into south-central OR and north-central NV with latest model guidance and observed soundings indicating precipitable water values holding in the 0.50-0.80 inch range for this afternoon. The advancing short-wave trough will support faster storm motions particularly across southeastern OR. In addition, falling 500 DM heights and mid-level jet support will keep a nocturnal thunderstorm threat for southeastern OR and southern Idaho through 12Z Friday. Otherwise, a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms across the Upper CO River Basin and central Mountains of UT could support new ignitions in pockets of existing dry fuels. ..Williams.. 07/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough moving across northern CA will accompany 40-50 kt westerly flow across the northern Great Basin. This will encourage dry downslope flow across parts of western NV and the northern Great Basin. At the same time, continued monsoon moisture will allow scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Intermountain West with isolated lightning. ...Northern Great Basin... Dry and breezy conditions are expected today and tonight in the lee of the Sierra and northern Great Basin ahead of the shortwave trough. Sustained 15-20 mph surface winds are expected from the west/southwest through the day. A dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15-20%. Despite some recent rainfall, area fuels remain receptive across much of NV and the northern Great Basin. Widespread elevated and locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunder... As the upper trough moves into the West, monsoon moisture will be shunted eastward compared to the last several days. Still, PWATS around 0.6-0.8 inches across western CO and into the northern Rockies will be sufficient to support scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Fuel receptiveness has decreased with multiple rounds of showers and storms this week. Still, drier pockets remain and lightning outside of the heavier precipitation cores will be capable of ignitions. This appears most likely over parts of northern CO to eastern ID, where less rainfall has been observed. Will maintain IsoDryT highlights for occasional lighting strikes within receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...Central California... An approaching mid-level short wave trough will promote enhanced dry downslope winds along and leeward of the Diablo Range into the San Joaquin Valley this afternoon. West-northwest winds of 10-15 mph with locally sustained 20 mph combined with relative humidity as low as 10% will support a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions amid dry fuels. ...Northern Great Basin and Upper-Colorado River Basin... Isolated dry thunderstorm threat was expanded into south-central OR and north-central NV with latest model guidance and observed soundings indicating precipitable water values holding in the 0.50-0.80 inch range for this afternoon. The advancing short-wave trough will support faster storm motions particularly across southeastern OR. In addition, falling 500 DM heights and mid-level jet support will keep a nocturnal thunderstorm threat for southeastern OR and southern Idaho through 12Z Friday. Otherwise, a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms across the Upper CO River Basin and central Mountains of UT could support new ignitions in pockets of existing dry fuels. ..Williams.. 07/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough moving across northern CA will accompany 40-50 kt westerly flow across the northern Great Basin. This will encourage dry downslope flow across parts of western NV and the northern Great Basin. At the same time, continued monsoon moisture will allow scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Intermountain West with isolated lightning. ...Northern Great Basin... Dry and breezy conditions are expected today and tonight in the lee of the Sierra and northern Great Basin ahead of the shortwave trough. Sustained 15-20 mph surface winds are expected from the west/southwest through the day. A dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15-20%. Despite some recent rainfall, area fuels remain receptive across much of NV and the northern Great Basin. Widespread elevated and locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunder... As the upper trough moves into the West, monsoon moisture will be shunted eastward compared to the last several days. Still, PWATS around 0.6-0.8 inches across western CO and into the northern Rockies will be sufficient to support scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Fuel receptiveness has decreased with multiple rounds of showers and storms this week. Still, drier pockets remain and lightning outside of the heavier precipitation cores will be capable of ignitions. This appears most likely over parts of northern CO to eastern ID, where less rainfall has been observed. Will maintain IsoDryT highlights for occasional lighting strikes within receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...Central California... An approaching mid-level short wave trough will promote enhanced dry downslope winds along and leeward of the Diablo Range into the San Joaquin Valley this afternoon. West-northwest winds of 10-15 mph with locally sustained 20 mph combined with relative humidity as low as 10% will support a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions amid dry fuels. ...Northern Great Basin and Upper-Colorado River Basin... Isolated dry thunderstorm threat was expanded into south-central OR and north-central NV with latest model guidance and observed soundings indicating precipitable water values holding in the 0.50-0.80 inch range for this afternoon. The advancing short-wave trough will support faster storm motions particularly across southeastern OR. In addition, falling 500 DM heights and mid-level jet support will keep a nocturnal thunderstorm threat for southeastern OR and southern Idaho through 12Z Friday. Otherwise, a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms across the Upper CO River Basin and central Mountains of UT could support new ignitions in pockets of existing dry fuels. ..Williams.. 07/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough moving across northern CA will accompany 40-50 kt westerly flow across the northern Great Basin. This will encourage dry downslope flow across parts of western NV and the northern Great Basin. At the same time, continued monsoon moisture will allow scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Intermountain West with isolated lightning. ...Northern Great Basin... Dry and breezy conditions are expected today and tonight in the lee of the Sierra and northern Great Basin ahead of the shortwave trough. Sustained 15-20 mph surface winds are expected from the west/southwest through the day. A dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15-20%. Despite some recent rainfall, area fuels remain receptive across much of NV and the northern Great Basin. Widespread elevated and locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunder... As the upper trough moves into the West, monsoon moisture will be shunted eastward compared to the last several days. Still, PWATS around 0.6-0.8 inches across western CO and into the northern Rockies will be sufficient to support scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Fuel receptiveness has decreased with multiple rounds of showers and storms this week. Still, drier pockets remain and lightning outside of the heavier precipitation cores will be capable of ignitions. This appears most likely over parts of northern CO to eastern ID, where less rainfall has been observed. Will maintain IsoDryT highlights for occasional lighting strikes within receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...Central California... An approaching mid-level short wave trough will promote enhanced dry downslope winds along and leeward of the Diablo Range into the San Joaquin Valley this afternoon. West-northwest winds of 10-15 mph with locally sustained 20 mph combined with relative humidity as low as 10% will support a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions amid dry fuels. ...Northern Great Basin and Upper-Colorado River Basin... Isolated dry thunderstorm threat was expanded into south-central OR and north-central NV with latest model guidance and observed soundings indicating precipitable water values holding in the 0.50-0.80 inch range for this afternoon. The advancing short-wave trough will support faster storm motions particularly across southeastern OR. In addition, falling 500 DM heights and mid-level jet support will keep a nocturnal thunderstorm threat for southeastern OR and southern Idaho through 12Z Friday. Otherwise, a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms across the Upper CO River Basin and central Mountains of UT could support new ignitions in pockets of existing dry fuels. ..Williams.. 07/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough moving across northern CA will accompany 40-50 kt westerly flow across the northern Great Basin. This will encourage dry downslope flow across parts of western NV and the northern Great Basin. At the same time, continued monsoon moisture will allow scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Intermountain West with isolated lightning. ...Northern Great Basin... Dry and breezy conditions are expected today and tonight in the lee of the Sierra and northern Great Basin ahead of the shortwave trough. Sustained 15-20 mph surface winds are expected from the west/southwest through the day. A dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15-20%. Despite some recent rainfall, area fuels remain receptive across much of NV and the northern Great Basin. Widespread elevated and locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunder... As the upper trough moves into the West, monsoon moisture will be shunted eastward compared to the last several days. Still, PWATS around 0.6-0.8 inches across western CO and into the northern Rockies will be sufficient to support scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Fuel receptiveness has decreased with multiple rounds of showers and storms this week. Still, drier pockets remain and lightning outside of the heavier precipitation cores will be capable of ignitions. This appears most likely over parts of northern CO to eastern ID, where less rainfall has been observed. Will maintain IsoDryT highlights for occasional lighting strikes within receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...Central California... An approaching mid-level short wave trough will promote enhanced dry downslope winds along and leeward of the Diablo Range into the San Joaquin Valley this afternoon. West-northwest winds of 10-15 mph with locally sustained 20 mph combined with relative humidity as low as 10% will support a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions amid dry fuels. ...Northern Great Basin and Upper-Colorado River Basin... Isolated dry thunderstorm threat was expanded into south-central OR and north-central NV with latest model guidance and observed soundings indicating precipitable water values holding in the 0.50-0.80 inch range for this afternoon. The advancing short-wave trough will support faster storm motions particularly across southeastern OR. In addition, falling 500 DM heights and mid-level jet support will keep a nocturnal thunderstorm threat for southeastern OR and southern Idaho through 12Z Friday. Otherwise, a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms across the Upper CO River Basin and central Mountains of UT could support new ignitions in pockets of existing dry fuels. ..Williams.. 07/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough moving across northern CA will accompany 40-50 kt westerly flow across the northern Great Basin. This will encourage dry downslope flow across parts of western NV and the northern Great Basin. At the same time, continued monsoon moisture will allow scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Intermountain West with isolated lightning. ...Northern Great Basin... Dry and breezy conditions are expected today and tonight in the lee of the Sierra and northern Great Basin ahead of the shortwave trough. Sustained 15-20 mph surface winds are expected from the west/southwest through the day. A dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15-20%. Despite some recent rainfall, area fuels remain receptive across much of NV and the northern Great Basin. Widespread elevated and locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunder... As the upper trough moves into the West, monsoon moisture will be shunted eastward compared to the last several days. Still, PWATS around 0.6-0.8 inches across western CO and into the northern Rockies will be sufficient to support scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Fuel receptiveness has decreased with multiple rounds of showers and storms this week. Still, drier pockets remain and lightning outside of the heavier precipitation cores will be capable of ignitions. This appears most likely over parts of northern CO to eastern ID, where less rainfall has been observed. Will maintain IsoDryT highlights for occasional lighting strikes within receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...Central California... An approaching mid-level short wave trough will promote enhanced dry downslope winds along and leeward of the Diablo Range into the San Joaquin Valley this afternoon. West-northwest winds of 10-15 mph with locally sustained 20 mph combined with relative humidity as low as 10% will support a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions amid dry fuels. ...Northern Great Basin and Upper-Colorado River Basin... Isolated dry thunderstorm threat was expanded into south-central OR and north-central NV with latest model guidance and observed soundings indicating precipitable water values holding in the 0.50-0.80 inch range for this afternoon. The advancing short-wave trough will support faster storm motions particularly across southeastern OR. In addition, falling 500 DM heights and mid-level jet support will keep a nocturnal thunderstorm threat for southeastern OR and southern Idaho through 12Z Friday. Otherwise, a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms across the Upper CO River Basin and central Mountains of UT could support new ignitions in pockets of existing dry fuels. ..Williams.. 07/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough moving across northern CA will accompany 40-50 kt westerly flow across the northern Great Basin. This will encourage dry downslope flow across parts of western NV and the northern Great Basin. At the same time, continued monsoon moisture will allow scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Intermountain West with isolated lightning. ...Northern Great Basin... Dry and breezy conditions are expected today and tonight in the lee of the Sierra and northern Great Basin ahead of the shortwave trough. Sustained 15-20 mph surface winds are expected from the west/southwest through the day. A dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15-20%. Despite some recent rainfall, area fuels remain receptive across much of NV and the northern Great Basin. Widespread elevated and locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunder... As the upper trough moves into the West, monsoon moisture will be shunted eastward compared to the last several days. Still, PWATS around 0.6-0.8 inches across western CO and into the northern Rockies will be sufficient to support scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Fuel receptiveness has decreased with multiple rounds of showers and storms this week. Still, drier pockets remain and lightning outside of the heavier precipitation cores will be capable of ignitions. This appears most likely over parts of northern CO to eastern ID, where less rainfall has been observed. Will maintain IsoDryT highlights for occasional lighting strikes within receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...Central California... An approaching mid-level short wave trough will promote enhanced dry downslope winds along and leeward of the Diablo Range into the San Joaquin Valley this afternoon. West-northwest winds of 10-15 mph with locally sustained 20 mph combined with relative humidity as low as 10% will support a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions amid dry fuels. ...Northern Great Basin and Upper-Colorado River Basin... Isolated dry thunderstorm threat was expanded into south-central OR and north-central NV with latest model guidance and observed soundings indicating precipitable water values holding in the 0.50-0.80 inch range for this afternoon. The advancing short-wave trough will support faster storm motions particularly across southeastern OR. In addition, falling 500 DM heights and mid-level jet support will keep a nocturnal thunderstorm threat for southeastern OR and southern Idaho through 12Z Friday. Otherwise, a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms across the Upper CO River Basin and central Mountains of UT could support new ignitions in pockets of existing dry fuels. ..Williams.. 07/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough moving across northern CA will accompany 40-50 kt westerly flow across the northern Great Basin. This will encourage dry downslope flow across parts of western NV and the northern Great Basin. At the same time, continued monsoon moisture will allow scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Intermountain West with isolated lightning. ...Northern Great Basin... Dry and breezy conditions are expected today and tonight in the lee of the Sierra and northern Great Basin ahead of the shortwave trough. Sustained 15-20 mph surface winds are expected from the west/southwest through the day. A dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15-20%. Despite some recent rainfall, area fuels remain receptive across much of NV and the northern Great Basin. Widespread elevated and locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunder... As the upper trough moves into the West, monsoon moisture will be shunted eastward compared to the last several days. Still, PWATS around 0.6-0.8 inches across western CO and into the northern Rockies will be sufficient to support scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Fuel receptiveness has decreased with multiple rounds of showers and storms this week. Still, drier pockets remain and lightning outside of the heavier precipitation cores will be capable of ignitions. This appears most likely over parts of northern CO to eastern ID, where less rainfall has been observed. Will maintain IsoDryT highlights for occasional lighting strikes within receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...Central California... An approaching mid-level short wave trough will promote enhanced dry downslope winds along and leeward of the Diablo Range into the San Joaquin Valley this afternoon. West-northwest winds of 10-15 mph with locally sustained 20 mph combined with relative humidity as low as 10% will support a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions amid dry fuels. ...Northern Great Basin and Upper-Colorado River Basin... Isolated dry thunderstorm threat was expanded into south-central OR and north-central NV with latest model guidance and observed soundings indicating precipitable water values holding in the 0.50-0.80 inch range for this afternoon. The advancing short-wave trough will support faster storm motions particularly across southeastern OR. In addition, falling 500 DM heights and mid-level jet support will keep a nocturnal thunderstorm threat for southeastern OR and southern Idaho through 12Z Friday. Otherwise, a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms across the Upper CO River Basin and central Mountains of UT could support new ignitions in pockets of existing dry fuels. ..Williams.. 07/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough moving across northern CA will accompany 40-50 kt westerly flow across the northern Great Basin. This will encourage dry downslope flow across parts of western NV and the northern Great Basin. At the same time, continued monsoon moisture will allow scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Intermountain West with isolated lightning. ...Northern Great Basin... Dry and breezy conditions are expected today and tonight in the lee of the Sierra and northern Great Basin ahead of the shortwave trough. Sustained 15-20 mph surface winds are expected from the west/southwest through the day. A dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15-20%. Despite some recent rainfall, area fuels remain receptive across much of NV and the northern Great Basin. Widespread elevated and locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunder... As the upper trough moves into the West, monsoon moisture will be shunted eastward compared to the last several days. Still, PWATS around 0.6-0.8 inches across western CO and into the northern Rockies will be sufficient to support scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Fuel receptiveness has decreased with multiple rounds of showers and storms this week. Still, drier pockets remain and lightning outside of the heavier precipitation cores will be capable of ignitions. This appears most likely over parts of northern CO to eastern ID, where less rainfall has been observed. Will maintain IsoDryT highlights for occasional lighting strikes within receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...Central California... An approaching mid-level short wave trough will promote enhanced dry downslope winds along and leeward of the Diablo Range into the San Joaquin Valley this afternoon. West-northwest winds of 10-15 mph with locally sustained 20 mph combined with relative humidity as low as 10% will support a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions amid dry fuels. ...Northern Great Basin and Upper-Colorado River Basin... Isolated dry thunderstorm threat was expanded into south-central OR and north-central NV with latest model guidance and observed soundings indicating precipitable water values holding in the 0.50-0.80 inch range for this afternoon. The advancing short-wave trough will support faster storm motions particularly across southeastern OR. In addition, falling 500 DM heights and mid-level jet support will keep a nocturnal thunderstorm threat for southeastern OR and southern Idaho through 12Z Friday. Otherwise, a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms across the Upper CO River Basin and central Mountains of UT could support new ignitions in pockets of existing dry fuels. ..Williams.. 07/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough moving across northern CA will accompany 40-50 kt westerly flow across the northern Great Basin. This will encourage dry downslope flow across parts of western NV and the northern Great Basin. At the same time, continued monsoon moisture will allow scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Intermountain West with isolated lightning. ...Northern Great Basin... Dry and breezy conditions are expected today and tonight in the lee of the Sierra and northern Great Basin ahead of the shortwave trough. Sustained 15-20 mph surface winds are expected from the west/southwest through the day. A dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15-20%. Despite some recent rainfall, area fuels remain receptive across much of NV and the northern Great Basin. Widespread elevated and locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunder... As the upper trough moves into the West, monsoon moisture will be shunted eastward compared to the last several days. Still, PWATS around 0.6-0.8 inches across western CO and into the northern Rockies will be sufficient to support scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Fuel receptiveness has decreased with multiple rounds of showers and storms this week. Still, drier pockets remain and lightning outside of the heavier precipitation cores will be capable of ignitions. This appears most likely over parts of northern CO to eastern ID, where less rainfall has been observed. Will maintain IsoDryT highlights for occasional lighting strikes within receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more