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Residents in Chase County have been asked to voluntarily conserve water. This request includes Cottonwood Falls, Strong City and Chase County Rural Water District 1. KVOE (Emporia, Kan.), Oct 22, 2022

The Blue Ridge Salvage and Fuels Reduction Project is part of the Forest Service’s on-going effort to improve forest health conditions on the Sulphur Ranger District. Blue Ridge is the geographic feature that runs North-South from Granby to Fraser, between the East Troublesome, Church Park and Williams Fork fires. Improving conditions in this area is a key component of the Hot Sulphur, Fraser and Grand County Community Wildfire Protection Plans. Much of the adjacent private land is developed or proposed for development. In addition, the adjacent private land contains large ranches and the YMCA of the Rockies’ Snow Mountain Ranch. The project area and the adjacent private land experienced a mountain pine beetle epidemic about a decade ago. As a result, the majority of the mature lodgepole pine trees within this area have been killed, both on and off the National Forest. The prescribed burning portion of the decision includes approximately 11,652 acres to be treated using prescribed...

The Tennessee Valley Authority began releasing water from Kentucky Dam on the Tennessee River and Barkley Dam on the Cumberland River in Kentucky into the Mississippi and Ohio rivers. The measure was intended to help stabilize commercial navigation conditions on the lower Ohio and Mississippi Rivers. The Mississippi River at Cairo, Illinois was nearing its lowest level since 1901, according to TVA post. Memphis Commercial Appeal (Tenn.), Oct 20, 2022

Barge drafts on the Lower Mississippi River were reduced to 9 feet on Oct. 17 in both directions, marking a 24% to 30% reduction to tons per barge compared to normal conditions. The bottom line is that shippers pay the same for a barge regardless of how much is loaded in it. DTN – Progressive Farmer (Burnsville, Minn.), Oct 24, 2022

No watches are valid as of Mon Oct 24 18:06:02 UTC 2022.

The Diamond Watch Fire started by lightning on July 14th had a small uptick in fire activity this week. The smoke was highly visible from ID Highway 57 near Nordman, ID and is burning below the eastern slope of Diamond Peak.  The public is encouraged not to stop along the roadway if traveling HWY 57 near the fire area.  The fire has been burning in rugged, steep, and dangerous terrain which has prompted fire officials to apply a confine/contain strategy to provide a safe working environment for firefighters.  Smoke will continue to linger as duff and small timber litter debris burn within the fire.  Fire behavior has been low to moderate, with fire mostly creeping along the forest floor.An area and road closure is in place, effective for Forest Service Roads 311, 308 and 1362H and the area in the vicinity of the Diamond Watch Fire.  Petit Lake and its associated dispersed campsites are within the area closure.  FSR 1362 remains open.  This closure is for public safety due to...

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO ALABAMA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from the Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South across the Southeast States on Tuesday. Damaging gusts will be the main hazard with these storms, though a tornado or two also will be possible. ...Synopsis... A compact and potent mid/upper shortwave trough will move from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley on Tuesday. This system will bring intense midlevel flow to portions of the lower MS Valley and the Mid-South, with 80+ kt southwesterly flow forecast at 500 mb. In the low levels, a 50 kt southerly low-level jet will develop east/northeast from the lower MS Valley toward Middle TN through early evening. A surface low over northwest AR Tuesday morning will track northeast through the period, becoming positioned over lower MI by Wednesday morning. An attendant cold front will sweep eastward across the Lower MS, TN and OH Valley vicinity, extending from eastern IN/western OH into eastern TN/western GA and the middle FL Peninsula by the end of the period. Strong to severe thunderstorms will precede the cold front across portions of the Lower MS Valley/Mid-South and Southeast states. ...Lower MS Valley/Mid-South into MS/AL... Strong warm advection will support a wedge of 60s F dewpoints as far north as Middle TN to develop ahead of the eastward-progressing cold front. Boundary-layer moisture will diminish with northward extent into the Ohio Valley/Midwest, with mainly 50s F dewpoints expected. Potential showers and cloud cover across the warm sector will limit stronger heating, and midlevel lapse rates will remain modest. This will preclude stronger destabilization, with MLCAPE generally in the 500-1000 J/kg range anticipated (with highest values further south). Nevertheless, the region will be under the influence for strong vertical shear and organized line segments are expected. The Marginal risk was expanded into parts of northeast AR/southeast MO near the surface low where ongoing thunderstorms could pose a threat for strong gusts and perhaps small hail for a few hours during the morning. Otherwise, severe potential should gradually increase through the morning/early afternoon as a line of showers and thunderstorms near the MS River shifts east across MS/western TN. Damaging gusts will be the main hazard with this activity along the strongly forced line of convection. However, enlarged, favorably curved low-level hodographs indicative of the rapidly increasing flow with height accompanying this system will support both mesovortex formation along line segments and rotating updrafts within any semi-discrete cells that can develop. A corridor of relative higher tornado potential (indicated by a 5 percent tornado probability) may develop where stronger low-level instability will overlap with favorable vertical shear across parts of MS/AL. ..Leitman.. 10/24/2022 Read more

MD 1889 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1889 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022 Areas affected...parts of the South Plains and northwest Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 241738Z - 242015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to form this afternoon from South Plains into far southwest Oklahoma, with a few storms producing severe gusts or hail. DISCUSSION...Strong heating continues near an east-west oriented front from the Lubbock area into northwest TX, with increasing showers and isolated thunderstorms beginning to form. While moisture is limited with low 50s F dewpoints, deep-layer lapse rates will continue to steepen as a strong vorticity maximum aloft moves east out of NM. The initial focus for development will be near the Lubbock area, near the surface wave along the stationary front. Visible imagery also shows CU forming along the surging cold front as well north of the Midland area. Given strengthening deep-layer lift, and a surface focus, scattered storms appear likely over the next few hours. The surging cold front will favor linear modes, though very strong deep-layer shear oriented across this boundary may lead to QLCS structures and/or cellular activity as well, producing hail. While a watch is not expected in the short term, trends will be monitored for expanding strong to severe storm coverage. ..Jewell/Guyer.. 10/24/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... LAT...LON 34460165 34990001 34969958 34669924 34359920 33859925 33019986 32260058 32180125 32290201 32670220 33120200 33950191 34460165 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241725
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Oct 24 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 10/24/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022/ ...Synopsis... Widespread dry, occasionally breezy surface conditions should prevail across much of the Plains states tomorrow/Tuesday as a surface cyclone tracks eastward across the central MS Valley. While such conditions would necessitate Elevated highlights, the dampening of fuels by preceding rainfall suggests that fire-weather highlights are unwarranted this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

 The Nakia Creek Fire, located 9 miles northeast of Camas WA in Clark County, and is burning in the Larch Block of the Yacolt Burn State Forest. The fire spread predominantly on Washington Department of Natural Resources lands southeast of Larch Mountain between Four Corners to the northwest, Jones and Boulder creeks to the south, and the L-1200 Rd to the east and northeast. The nearest communities are Fern Prairie, Battle Ground, Camas, and Washougal.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from central Texas and eastern Oklahoma to the ArkLaTex, east Texas, far western Louisiana and the middle/upper Texas Coast through tonight. Damaging gusts will be the main hazard with these storms, although a couple of tornadoes are also possible. ...Southern Plains/ArkLaTex... A semi-organized but not overly intense squall line continues to progress eastward from near/east of I-35 across east-central Oklahoma and North Texas. Locally severe storms will remain a possibility with this convective line in the presence of strong/largely unidirectional deep-layer shear and modest lapse rates/buoyancy. Thinking remains that this regional severe threat this afternoon could remain a bit isolated/episodic across eastern Oklahoma/north Texas. A somewhat more organized/sustained severe risk should evolve by early evening, initially across central Texas and into eastern/south-central Texas tonight. This will be as the base of the southern Rockies upper trough ejects eastward and trends toward a more neutral tilt, with surface wave development/cyclogenesis expected from northwest Texas late this afternoon east-northeastward along the Red River vicinity and Ozarks late tonight. This scenario should allow for the southwest flank of the residual squall line/outflow to reinvigorate across central/east-central Texas by early evening, and for new development to occur near the east/southeastward-accelerating cold front tonight. Steady low-level moistening and modest cooling aloft could support upwards of 750-1250 J/kg MLCAPE this evening across central/east Texas. Increasingly large/modestly curved hodographs may yield the possibility of a few semi-discrete supercells ahead of or in the early developmental stages of the squall line, with evolving bowing segments otherwise likely. A couple of tornadoes may occur aside from possible wind damage. Given the large-scale trends and expected persistence of weak warm-sector buoyancy, at least some severe risk is expected to persist eastward through the late night/early Tuesday morning across far east/southeast Texas into Louisiana/possibly southern Arkansas, even if on just an isolated/marginal basis overnight. ...Northwest Texas/Low Rolling Plains... A spatially narrow/residual corridor of low-level moisture and buoyancy may be sufficient for the development of some low-topped stronger storms late this afternoon/early evening as lapse rates steepen. A few instances of strong thunderstorm winds and/or hail could occur. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 10/24/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the previous outlook. ..Wendt.. 10/24/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022/ ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level trough and associated surface cold front will progress across the Plains states today, preceded by widespread showers and thunderstorms. Appreciable rainfall accumulations should limit significant, widespread wildfire-spread concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Illinois American Water temporarily switched from using the Ohio River as its source water to groundwater for Cairo, Illinois as the Ohio River is at a historically low level. The groundwater contains more minerals than surface water. WPSD 6 (Paducah, Ky.), Oct 17, 2022

The US Army Corps of Engineers is constructing a temporary 1,500-foot-wide underwater levee in the Mississippi River to prevent saltwater from pushing up the river amid record-low river levels and flow rates. Sediment will be dredged from the river and piled up near Myrtle Grove, Louisiana, downstream from New Orleans, to make a sill to dam the denser saltwater downstream. When the river’s flow is less than 300,000 cubic feet per second, there is insufficient force to keep the saltwater from creeping upstream. The flow of the Mississippi River has been around or below 200,000 cubic feet per second for more than a week, according to data from the US Geological Survey. CNN (Atlanta, Ga.), Oct 18, 2022

Drought in Kentucky has hindered fall pasture forage growth, leading farmers to feed hay earlier than usual. The drought-stressed pastures will likely have plant loss, which will be felt in the next growing season. After the dry weather in June, pastures did have some regrowth, so farmers do have some hay available. “The river hasn’t been this low since the 1980s, maybe longer,” said Chad Lee, director of the UK Grain and Forage Center of Excellence. “This has already hurt the local price for soybeans. On Oct. 17, there were 51 barges parked at Hickman, Kentucky, while crews dredged the riverbed to clear debris so they could pass.” “Grain farmers are taking up to $1 per bushel off of the soybean price to ‘pay’ for barges. Some are instead stockpiling soybeans to wait until barge prices drop. But, if you’re a farmer without on-farm storage, you have to take the cut.” The London Sentinel Echo (Ky.), Oct 23, 2022

No watches are valid as of Sun Oct 23 17:49:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Oct 23 17:49:02 UTC 2022.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231743
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Oct 23 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Roslyn, located over west-central mainland Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 231743 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Roslyn Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022 100 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING SPREADING INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 104.4W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF THE CITY OF DURANGO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued all warnings south of San Blas. The Hurricane Warning from San Blas to Escuinapa has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Mazatlan A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Roslyn was located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 104.4 West. Roslyn is moving toward the north-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). This general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected today. On the forecast track, Roslyn will move farther inland over west-central Mexico through this evening. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected to continue, and Roslyn is forecast to become a tropical depression by this evening and dissipate tonight or early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). An observing site at Marismas Nacionales near Felipe Angeles in the state of Nayarit reported sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a gust to 67 mph (107 km/h) within the past hour or so. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread inland through portions of west-central Mexico through late afternoon or early evening. Wind speeds atop hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. RAINFALL: Roslyn is expected to produce the following rainfall totals across coastal areas of west-central Mexico: Upper coast of Jalisco, Nayarit including Islas Marias: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches. Southeastern Sinaloa, southern Durango into southwestern Zacatecas: 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas of rugged terrain. STORM SURGE: Water levels along the coast of Mexico within the warning area should gradually subside this afternoon. SURF: Swells generated by Roslyn will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown