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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA AND WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN UTAH... ...Update... Lightning is ongoing this morning over portions of southeastern and southern OR, and southeastern ID. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms are still expected across this region throughout the day, and will spread east and north with time. The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was extended eastward across southern ID, northern UT, and southwestern WY to account for low forecast precipitation amounts (< 0.25") and PWATs less than 0.75". The boundary layer within these regions will remain relatively dry, with mostly inverted-V forecast soundings depicted. Fuels also remain very receptive here. Farther south, from near the Mojave Desert northeastward into southeastern NV and western UT, low RH near 5-15% will combine with breezy southwest winds around 20-35 mph this afternoon. No adjustments were made to the Critical area. However, the Elevated area was extended southward to include Death Valley National Park and Las Vegas, to far northwestern AZ. Although most of this region has limited fuel availability, critical meteorological fire weather conditions are expected to persist for most of the day. ..Barnes.. 07/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the central CONUS, with various shortwave troughs traversing the periphery. One such trough is expected to move across portions of the Great Basin, providing a focus for fire weather concerns through the day. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of southeastern Oregon, where surface moisture will be sufficient for conditional instability to develop. In this environment, inverted-V thermodynamic profiles, low precipitable water, and strong deep-layer shear suggest the potential for dry thunderstorms. Fuels in the region have not received much rainfall recently and therefore should be receptive to lightning ignitions. Farther south across portions of the Great Basin, strong mixing is expected to promote RH in the 5-15% range with strong winds. A Critical area has been maintained across portions of southeast Nevada and southwestern Utah, where a corridor of enhanced surface winds is expected in association with a mid-level jet. This region also has the best overlap with dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA AND WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN UTAH... ...Update... Lightning is ongoing this morning over portions of southeastern and southern OR, and southeastern ID. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms are still expected across this region throughout the day, and will spread east and north with time. The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was extended eastward across southern ID, northern UT, and southwestern WY to account for low forecast precipitation amounts (< 0.25") and PWATs less than 0.75". The boundary layer within these regions will remain relatively dry, with mostly inverted-V forecast soundings depicted. Fuels also remain very receptive here. Farther south, from near the Mojave Desert northeastward into southeastern NV and western UT, low RH near 5-15% will combine with breezy southwest winds around 20-35 mph this afternoon. No adjustments were made to the Critical area. However, the Elevated area was extended southward to include Death Valley National Park and Las Vegas, to far northwestern AZ. Although most of this region has limited fuel availability, critical meteorological fire weather conditions are expected to persist for most of the day. ..Barnes.. 07/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the central CONUS, with various shortwave troughs traversing the periphery. One such trough is expected to move across portions of the Great Basin, providing a focus for fire weather concerns through the day. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of southeastern Oregon, where surface moisture will be sufficient for conditional instability to develop. In this environment, inverted-V thermodynamic profiles, low precipitable water, and strong deep-layer shear suggest the potential for dry thunderstorms. Fuels in the region have not received much rainfall recently and therefore should be receptive to lightning ignitions. Farther south across portions of the Great Basin, strong mixing is expected to promote RH in the 5-15% range with strong winds. A Critical area has been maintained across portions of southeast Nevada and southwestern Utah, where a corridor of enhanced surface winds is expected in association with a mid-level jet. This region also has the best overlap with dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA AND WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN UTAH... ...Update... Lightning is ongoing this morning over portions of southeastern and southern OR, and southeastern ID. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms are still expected across this region throughout the day, and will spread east and north with time. The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was extended eastward across southern ID, northern UT, and southwestern WY to account for low forecast precipitation amounts (< 0.25") and PWATs less than 0.75". The boundary layer within these regions will remain relatively dry, with mostly inverted-V forecast soundings depicted. Fuels also remain very receptive here. Farther south, from near the Mojave Desert northeastward into southeastern NV and western UT, low RH near 5-15% will combine with breezy southwest winds around 20-35 mph this afternoon. No adjustments were made to the Critical area. However, the Elevated area was extended southward to include Death Valley National Park and Las Vegas, to far northwestern AZ. Although most of this region has limited fuel availability, critical meteorological fire weather conditions are expected to persist for most of the day. ..Barnes.. 07/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the central CONUS, with various shortwave troughs traversing the periphery. One such trough is expected to move across portions of the Great Basin, providing a focus for fire weather concerns through the day. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of southeastern Oregon, where surface moisture will be sufficient for conditional instability to develop. In this environment, inverted-V thermodynamic profiles, low precipitable water, and strong deep-layer shear suggest the potential for dry thunderstorms. Fuels in the region have not received much rainfall recently and therefore should be receptive to lightning ignitions. Farther south across portions of the Great Basin, strong mixing is expected to promote RH in the 5-15% range with strong winds. A Critical area has been maintained across portions of southeast Nevada and southwestern Utah, where a corridor of enhanced surface winds is expected in association with a mid-level jet. This region also has the best overlap with dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA AND WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN UTAH... ...Update... Lightning is ongoing this morning over portions of southeastern and southern OR, and southeastern ID. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms are still expected across this region throughout the day, and will spread east and north with time. The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was extended eastward across southern ID, northern UT, and southwestern WY to account for low forecast precipitation amounts (< 0.25") and PWATs less than 0.75". The boundary layer within these regions will remain relatively dry, with mostly inverted-V forecast soundings depicted. Fuels also remain very receptive here. Farther south, from near the Mojave Desert northeastward into southeastern NV and western UT, low RH near 5-15% will combine with breezy southwest winds around 20-35 mph this afternoon. No adjustments were made to the Critical area. However, the Elevated area was extended southward to include Death Valley National Park and Las Vegas, to far northwestern AZ. Although most of this region has limited fuel availability, critical meteorological fire weather conditions are expected to persist for most of the day. ..Barnes.. 07/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the central CONUS, with various shortwave troughs traversing the periphery. One such trough is expected to move across portions of the Great Basin, providing a focus for fire weather concerns through the day. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of southeastern Oregon, where surface moisture will be sufficient for conditional instability to develop. In this environment, inverted-V thermodynamic profiles, low precipitable water, and strong deep-layer shear suggest the potential for dry thunderstorms. Fuels in the region have not received much rainfall recently and therefore should be receptive to lightning ignitions. Farther south across portions of the Great Basin, strong mixing is expected to promote RH in the 5-15% range with strong winds. A Critical area has been maintained across portions of southeast Nevada and southwestern Utah, where a corridor of enhanced surface winds is expected in association with a mid-level jet. This region also has the best overlap with dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA AND WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN UTAH... ...Update... Lightning is ongoing this morning over portions of southeastern and southern OR, and southeastern ID. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms are still expected across this region throughout the day, and will spread east and north with time. The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was extended eastward across southern ID, northern UT, and southwestern WY to account for low forecast precipitation amounts (< 0.25") and PWATs less than 0.75". The boundary layer within these regions will remain relatively dry, with mostly inverted-V forecast soundings depicted. Fuels also remain very receptive here. Farther south, from near the Mojave Desert northeastward into southeastern NV and western UT, low RH near 5-15% will combine with breezy southwest winds around 20-35 mph this afternoon. No adjustments were made to the Critical area. However, the Elevated area was extended southward to include Death Valley National Park and Las Vegas, to far northwestern AZ. Although most of this region has limited fuel availability, critical meteorological fire weather conditions are expected to persist for most of the day. ..Barnes.. 07/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the central CONUS, with various shortwave troughs traversing the periphery. One such trough is expected to move across portions of the Great Basin, providing a focus for fire weather concerns through the day. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of southeastern Oregon, where surface moisture will be sufficient for conditional instability to develop. In this environment, inverted-V thermodynamic profiles, low precipitable water, and strong deep-layer shear suggest the potential for dry thunderstorms. Fuels in the region have not received much rainfall recently and therefore should be receptive to lightning ignitions. Farther south across portions of the Great Basin, strong mixing is expected to promote RH in the 5-15% range with strong winds. A Critical area has been maintained across portions of southeast Nevada and southwestern Utah, where a corridor of enhanced surface winds is expected in association with a mid-level jet. This region also has the best overlap with dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA AND WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN UTAH... ...Update... Lightning is ongoing this morning over portions of southeastern and southern OR, and southeastern ID. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms are still expected across this region throughout the day, and will spread east and north with time. The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was extended eastward across southern ID, northern UT, and southwestern WY to account for low forecast precipitation amounts (< 0.25") and PWATs less than 0.75". The boundary layer within these regions will remain relatively dry, with mostly inverted-V forecast soundings depicted. Fuels also remain very receptive here. Farther south, from near the Mojave Desert northeastward into southeastern NV and western UT, low RH near 5-15% will combine with breezy southwest winds around 20-35 mph this afternoon. No adjustments were made to the Critical area. However, the Elevated area was extended southward to include Death Valley National Park and Las Vegas, to far northwestern AZ. Although most of this region has limited fuel availability, critical meteorological fire weather conditions are expected to persist for most of the day. ..Barnes.. 07/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the central CONUS, with various shortwave troughs traversing the periphery. One such trough is expected to move across portions of the Great Basin, providing a focus for fire weather concerns through the day. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of southeastern Oregon, where surface moisture will be sufficient for conditional instability to develop. In this environment, inverted-V thermodynamic profiles, low precipitable water, and strong deep-layer shear suggest the potential for dry thunderstorms. Fuels in the region have not received much rainfall recently and therefore should be receptive to lightning ignitions. Farther south across portions of the Great Basin, strong mixing is expected to promote RH in the 5-15% range with strong winds. A Critical area has been maintained across portions of southeast Nevada and southwestern Utah, where a corridor of enhanced surface winds is expected in association with a mid-level jet. This region also has the best overlap with dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA AND WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN UTAH... ...Update... Lightning is ongoing this morning over portions of southeastern and southern OR, and southeastern ID. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms are still expected across this region throughout the day, and will spread east and north with time. The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was extended eastward across southern ID, northern UT, and southwestern WY to account for low forecast precipitation amounts (< 0.25") and PWATs less than 0.75". The boundary layer within these regions will remain relatively dry, with mostly inverted-V forecast soundings depicted. Fuels also remain very receptive here. Farther south, from near the Mojave Desert northeastward into southeastern NV and western UT, low RH near 5-15% will combine with breezy southwest winds around 20-35 mph this afternoon. No adjustments were made to the Critical area. However, the Elevated area was extended southward to include Death Valley National Park and Las Vegas, to far northwestern AZ. Although most of this region has limited fuel availability, critical meteorological fire weather conditions are expected to persist for most of the day. ..Barnes.. 07/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the central CONUS, with various shortwave troughs traversing the periphery. One such trough is expected to move across portions of the Great Basin, providing a focus for fire weather concerns through the day. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of southeastern Oregon, where surface moisture will be sufficient for conditional instability to develop. In this environment, inverted-V thermodynamic profiles, low precipitable water, and strong deep-layer shear suggest the potential for dry thunderstorms. Fuels in the region have not received much rainfall recently and therefore should be receptive to lightning ignitions. Farther south across portions of the Great Basin, strong mixing is expected to promote RH in the 5-15% range with strong winds. A Critical area has been maintained across portions of southeast Nevada and southwestern Utah, where a corridor of enhanced surface winds is expected in association with a mid-level jet. This region also has the best overlap with dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA AND WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN UTAH... ...Update... Lightning is ongoing this morning over portions of southeastern and southern OR, and southeastern ID. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms are still expected across this region throughout the day, and will spread east and north with time. The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was extended eastward across southern ID, northern UT, and southwestern WY to account for low forecast precipitation amounts (< 0.25") and PWATs less than 0.75". The boundary layer within these regions will remain relatively dry, with mostly inverted-V forecast soundings depicted. Fuels also remain very receptive here. Farther south, from near the Mojave Desert northeastward into southeastern NV and western UT, low RH near 5-15% will combine with breezy southwest winds around 20-35 mph this afternoon. No adjustments were made to the Critical area. However, the Elevated area was extended southward to include Death Valley National Park and Las Vegas, to far northwestern AZ. Although most of this region has limited fuel availability, critical meteorological fire weather conditions are expected to persist for most of the day. ..Barnes.. 07/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the central CONUS, with various shortwave troughs traversing the periphery. One such trough is expected to move across portions of the Great Basin, providing a focus for fire weather concerns through the day. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of southeastern Oregon, where surface moisture will be sufficient for conditional instability to develop. In this environment, inverted-V thermodynamic profiles, low precipitable water, and strong deep-layer shear suggest the potential for dry thunderstorms. Fuels in the region have not received much rainfall recently and therefore should be receptive to lightning ignitions. Farther south across portions of the Great Basin, strong mixing is expected to promote RH in the 5-15% range with strong winds. A Critical area has been maintained across portions of southeast Nevada and southwestern Utah, where a corridor of enhanced surface winds is expected in association with a mid-level jet. This region also has the best overlap with dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA AND WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN UTAH... ...Update... Lightning is ongoing this morning over portions of southeastern and southern OR, and southeastern ID. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms are still expected across this region throughout the day, and will spread east and north with time. The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was extended eastward across southern ID, northern UT, and southwestern WY to account for low forecast precipitation amounts (< 0.25") and PWATs less than 0.75". The boundary layer within these regions will remain relatively dry, with mostly inverted-V forecast soundings depicted. Fuels also remain very receptive here. Farther south, from near the Mojave Desert northeastward into southeastern NV and western UT, low RH near 5-15% will combine with breezy southwest winds around 20-35 mph this afternoon. No adjustments were made to the Critical area. However, the Elevated area was extended southward to include Death Valley National Park and Las Vegas, to far northwestern AZ. Although most of this region has limited fuel availability, critical meteorological fire weather conditions are expected to persist for most of the day. ..Barnes.. 07/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the central CONUS, with various shortwave troughs traversing the periphery. One such trough is expected to move across portions of the Great Basin, providing a focus for fire weather concerns through the day. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of southeastern Oregon, where surface moisture will be sufficient for conditional instability to develop. In this environment, inverted-V thermodynamic profiles, low precipitable water, and strong deep-layer shear suggest the potential for dry thunderstorms. Fuels in the region have not received much rainfall recently and therefore should be receptive to lightning ignitions. Farther south across portions of the Great Basin, strong mixing is expected to promote RH in the 5-15% range with strong winds. A Critical area has been maintained across portions of southeast Nevada and southwestern Utah, where a corridor of enhanced surface winds is expected in association with a mid-level jet. This region also has the best overlap with dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA AND WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN UTAH... ...Update... Lightning is ongoing this morning over portions of southeastern and southern OR, and southeastern ID. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms are still expected across this region throughout the day, and will spread east and north with time. The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was extended eastward across southern ID, northern UT, and southwestern WY to account for low forecast precipitation amounts (< 0.25") and PWATs less than 0.75". The boundary layer within these regions will remain relatively dry, with mostly inverted-V forecast soundings depicted. Fuels also remain very receptive here. Farther south, from near the Mojave Desert northeastward into southeastern NV and western UT, low RH near 5-15% will combine with breezy southwest winds around 20-35 mph this afternoon. No adjustments were made to the Critical area. However, the Elevated area was extended southward to include Death Valley National Park and Las Vegas, to far northwestern AZ. Although most of this region has limited fuel availability, critical meteorological fire weather conditions are expected to persist for most of the day. ..Barnes.. 07/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the central CONUS, with various shortwave troughs traversing the periphery. One such trough is expected to move across portions of the Great Basin, providing a focus for fire weather concerns through the day. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of southeastern Oregon, where surface moisture will be sufficient for conditional instability to develop. In this environment, inverted-V thermodynamic profiles, low precipitable water, and strong deep-layer shear suggest the potential for dry thunderstorms. Fuels in the region have not received much rainfall recently and therefore should be receptive to lightning ignitions. Farther south across portions of the Great Basin, strong mixing is expected to promote RH in the 5-15% range with strong winds. A Critical area has been maintained across portions of southeast Nevada and southwestern Utah, where a corridor of enhanced surface winds is expected in association with a mid-level jet. This region also has the best overlap with dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA AND WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN UTAH... ...Update... Lightning is ongoing this morning over portions of southeastern and southern OR, and southeastern ID. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms are still expected across this region throughout the day, and will spread east and north with time. The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was extended eastward across southern ID, northern UT, and southwestern WY to account for low forecast precipitation amounts (< 0.25") and PWATs less than 0.75". The boundary layer within these regions will remain relatively dry, with mostly inverted-V forecast soundings depicted. Fuels also remain very receptive here. Farther south, from near the Mojave Desert northeastward into southeastern NV and western UT, low RH near 5-15% will combine with breezy southwest winds around 20-35 mph this afternoon. No adjustments were made to the Critical area. However, the Elevated area was extended southward to include Death Valley National Park and Las Vegas, to far northwestern AZ. Although most of this region has limited fuel availability, critical meteorological fire weather conditions are expected to persist for most of the day. ..Barnes.. 07/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will remain in place across the central CONUS, with various shortwave troughs traversing the periphery. One such trough is expected to move across portions of the Great Basin, providing a focus for fire weather concerns through the day. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of southeastern Oregon, where surface moisture will be sufficient for conditional instability to develop. In this environment, inverted-V thermodynamic profiles, low precipitable water, and strong deep-layer shear suggest the potential for dry thunderstorms. Fuels in the region have not received much rainfall recently and therefore should be receptive to lightning ignitions. Farther south across portions of the Great Basin, strong mixing is expected to promote RH in the 5-15% range with strong winds. A Critical area has been maintained across portions of southeast Nevada and southwestern Utah, where a corridor of enhanced surface winds is expected in association with a mid-level jet. This region also has the best overlap with dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today into the evening over the Upper Midwest. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur from eastern Oregon into portions of the northern Great Basin/Rockies. ...Upper Midwest into the central High Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning indicate an upper ridge extends northward from the southern Plains into the Upper Midwest. A notable disturbance is moving northeastward across the central Rockies this morning and into the northern-central Plains by early evening. Lee troughing extending southward from a weak low forecast to migrate east from the Dakotas into MN, is expected to focus thunderstorm activity this afternoon into the evening. Moist southerly low-level flow will maintain a seasonably moist/unstable airmass across the central into the north-central U.S. The latest model guidance shows the strongest buoyancy developing across the Upper Midwest (2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) amidst relatively limited deep-layer shear (generally at or below 30-kt 0-6 km shear). Heating and appreciable forcing for ascent will aid in scattered thunderstorms eventually evolving by the late afternoon into the early evening near the aforementioned wind shift and an eastward-moving cold front over Dakotas/MN vicinity. Severe gusts appear to be the primary hazard, but large hail may accompany the stronger storms. ...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies... A belt of strong 40-50 kt 500-mb flow will move across northern NV into ID through the base of a mid- to upper-level trough/low situated over the Pacific Northwest. IR satellite imagery this morning shows extensive cloudiness immediately ahead of a upper PV anomaly from the NV/ID/OR border northward through much of ID and eastern OR. In the wake of morning showers and a few thunderstorms, additional storm activity is forecast to develop later this afternoon. A locally greater risk for severe may become focused within this broader region from southeast ID and northern UT into far western WY, where 700-500 mb lapse rates are likely to be larger [reference the 12 UTC raobs between Elko, NV (6.3 deg C/km) versus Salt Lake City, UT (8.2 deg C/km)]. Isolated severe gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail may occur with the stronger storms. ..Smith/Broyles.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today into the evening over the Upper Midwest. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur from eastern Oregon into portions of the northern Great Basin/Rockies. ...Upper Midwest into the central High Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning indicate an upper ridge extends northward from the southern Plains into the Upper Midwest. A notable disturbance is moving northeastward across the central Rockies this morning and into the northern-central Plains by early evening. Lee troughing extending southward from a weak low forecast to migrate east from the Dakotas into MN, is expected to focus thunderstorm activity this afternoon into the evening. Moist southerly low-level flow will maintain a seasonably moist/unstable airmass across the central into the north-central U.S. The latest model guidance shows the strongest buoyancy developing across the Upper Midwest (2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) amidst relatively limited deep-layer shear (generally at or below 30-kt 0-6 km shear). Heating and appreciable forcing for ascent will aid in scattered thunderstorms eventually evolving by the late afternoon into the early evening near the aforementioned wind shift and an eastward-moving cold front over Dakotas/MN vicinity. Severe gusts appear to be the primary hazard, but large hail may accompany the stronger storms. ...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies... A belt of strong 40-50 kt 500-mb flow will move across northern NV into ID through the base of a mid- to upper-level trough/low situated over the Pacific Northwest. IR satellite imagery this morning shows extensive cloudiness immediately ahead of a upper PV anomaly from the NV/ID/OR border northward through much of ID and eastern OR. In the wake of morning showers and a few thunderstorms, additional storm activity is forecast to develop later this afternoon. A locally greater risk for severe may become focused within this broader region from southeast ID and northern UT into far western WY, where 700-500 mb lapse rates are likely to be larger [reference the 12 UTC raobs between Elko, NV (6.3 deg C/km) versus Salt Lake City, UT (8.2 deg C/km)]. Isolated severe gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail may occur with the stronger storms. ..Smith/Broyles.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today into the evening over the Upper Midwest. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur from eastern Oregon into portions of the northern Great Basin/Rockies. ...Upper Midwest into the central High Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning indicate an upper ridge extends northward from the southern Plains into the Upper Midwest. A notable disturbance is moving northeastward across the central Rockies this morning and into the northern-central Plains by early evening. Lee troughing extending southward from a weak low forecast to migrate east from the Dakotas into MN, is expected to focus thunderstorm activity this afternoon into the evening. Moist southerly low-level flow will maintain a seasonably moist/unstable airmass across the central into the north-central U.S. The latest model guidance shows the strongest buoyancy developing across the Upper Midwest (2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) amidst relatively limited deep-layer shear (generally at or below 30-kt 0-6 km shear). Heating and appreciable forcing for ascent will aid in scattered thunderstorms eventually evolving by the late afternoon into the early evening near the aforementioned wind shift and an eastward-moving cold front over Dakotas/MN vicinity. Severe gusts appear to be the primary hazard, but large hail may accompany the stronger storms. ...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies... A belt of strong 40-50 kt 500-mb flow will move across northern NV into ID through the base of a mid- to upper-level trough/low situated over the Pacific Northwest. IR satellite imagery this morning shows extensive cloudiness immediately ahead of a upper PV anomaly from the NV/ID/OR border northward through much of ID and eastern OR. In the wake of morning showers and a few thunderstorms, additional storm activity is forecast to develop later this afternoon. A locally greater risk for severe may become focused within this broader region from southeast ID and northern UT into far western WY, where 700-500 mb lapse rates are likely to be larger [reference the 12 UTC raobs between Elko, NV (6.3 deg C/km) versus Salt Lake City, UT (8.2 deg C/km)]. Isolated severe gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail may occur with the stronger storms. ..Smith/Broyles.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today into the evening over the Upper Midwest. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur from eastern Oregon into portions of the northern Great Basin/Rockies. ...Upper Midwest into the central High Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning indicate an upper ridge extends northward from the southern Plains into the Upper Midwest. A notable disturbance is moving northeastward across the central Rockies this morning and into the northern-central Plains by early evening. Lee troughing extending southward from a weak low forecast to migrate east from the Dakotas into MN, is expected to focus thunderstorm activity this afternoon into the evening. Moist southerly low-level flow will maintain a seasonably moist/unstable airmass across the central into the north-central U.S. The latest model guidance shows the strongest buoyancy developing across the Upper Midwest (2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) amidst relatively limited deep-layer shear (generally at or below 30-kt 0-6 km shear). Heating and appreciable forcing for ascent will aid in scattered thunderstorms eventually evolving by the late afternoon into the early evening near the aforementioned wind shift and an eastward-moving cold front over Dakotas/MN vicinity. Severe gusts appear to be the primary hazard, but large hail may accompany the stronger storms. ...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies... A belt of strong 40-50 kt 500-mb flow will move across northern NV into ID through the base of a mid- to upper-level trough/low situated over the Pacific Northwest. IR satellite imagery this morning shows extensive cloudiness immediately ahead of a upper PV anomaly from the NV/ID/OR border northward through much of ID and eastern OR. In the wake of morning showers and a few thunderstorms, additional storm activity is forecast to develop later this afternoon. A locally greater risk for severe may become focused within this broader region from southeast ID and northern UT into far western WY, where 700-500 mb lapse rates are likely to be larger [reference the 12 UTC raobs between Elko, NV (6.3 deg C/km) versus Salt Lake City, UT (8.2 deg C/km)]. Isolated severe gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail may occur with the stronger storms. ..Smith/Broyles.. 07/04/2025 Read more

852
ABPZ20 KNHC 041145
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jul 4 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, partly
associated with a tropical wave, is centered a few hundred miles
south of southern Mexico. Gradual development of this system is
expected during the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form later this weekend or early next week while it moves
generally west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041145
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jul 4 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, partly
associated with a tropical wave, is centered a few hundred miles
south of southern Mexico. Gradual development of this system is
expected during the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form later this weekend or early next week while it moves
generally west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper ridge will gradually build over the Southwest while mainly zonal mid-level flow persists over the northern CONUS through next week. A relatively nebulous surface pattern will be the norm through the extended range. Rich low-level moisture will overspread the CONUS east of the Rockies Days 4-8/next Monday-Friday, supporting scattered thunderstorm development over much of the Great Plains into the MS Valley, and the Southeast into the Northeast. The best chance for at least isolated strong to potentially severe storms in the upcoming week would be across the north-central CONUS. Here, the low-level moisture will advect northward beneath relatively cooler temperatures and modest northwesterly flow/shear aloft. However, given the nebulous and weakly forced environment, confidence is too low to delineate severe probabilities over the north-central U.S. for any given day. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper ridge will gradually build over the Southwest while mainly zonal mid-level flow persists over the northern CONUS through next week. A relatively nebulous surface pattern will be the norm through the extended range. Rich low-level moisture will overspread the CONUS east of the Rockies Days 4-8/next Monday-Friday, supporting scattered thunderstorm development over much of the Great Plains into the MS Valley, and the Southeast into the Northeast. The best chance for at least isolated strong to potentially severe storms in the upcoming week would be across the north-central CONUS. Here, the low-level moisture will advect northward beneath relatively cooler temperatures and modest northwesterly flow/shear aloft. However, given the nebulous and weakly forced environment, confidence is too low to delineate severe probabilities over the north-central U.S. for any given day. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper ridge will gradually build over the Southwest while mainly zonal mid-level flow persists over the northern CONUS through next week. A relatively nebulous surface pattern will be the norm through the extended range. Rich low-level moisture will overspread the CONUS east of the Rockies Days 4-8/next Monday-Friday, supporting scattered thunderstorm development over much of the Great Plains into the MS Valley, and the Southeast into the Northeast. The best chance for at least isolated strong to potentially severe storms in the upcoming week would be across the north-central CONUS. Here, the low-level moisture will advect northward beneath relatively cooler temperatures and modest northwesterly flow/shear aloft. However, given the nebulous and weakly forced environment, confidence is too low to delineate severe probabilities over the north-central U.S. for any given day. Read more