Aggregator

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY FROM CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains tomorrow (Saturday), with hail and wind being the main concerns. Isolated damaging gusts may also accompany the stronger storms over the Upper Midwest. ...Northern High Plains... The prominent shortwave trough currently tracking across southeast OR will top the ridge over the northern High Plains on Saturday. As this happens, large scale forcing will overspread much of eastern MT/WY into the Dakotas. Deep southeasterly low-level winds into this region will result in a corridor of moderate instability from northeast WY into central MT, where steep low and mid-level lapse rates will contribute to MLCAPE values over 2000 J/kg. Thunderstorms will begin increasing by early afternoon, with storms spreading into the Dakotas by evening. Supercells and bowing structures are expected, with a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Upper Midwest... Current water vapor loop shows a weak shortwave trough over eastern WY. This feature will strengthen and move into the upper Midwest tomorrow. A surface cold front will extend from northeast IA into central WI by afternoon, providing the focus for scattered thunderstorm development. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak, but ample low-level moisture should provide sufficient CAPE for a few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds. A few of the 12z CAM solutions suggest a few organized storm clusters and some potential for a zone of greater severe concern from northeast IA into southwest WI. Will maintain MRGL risk for now, but monitor for an upgrade in later outlooks. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected on Saturday across much of the southern High Plains from eastern CO into southwest KS, the TX Panhandle, and eastern NM. Forecast soundings show steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient northwest flow aloft for some convective organization. Multiple clusters of storms capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail are expected. Parts of this region may need an upgrade to SLGT as mesoscale details become more clear. ..Hart.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY FROM CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains tomorrow (Saturday), with hail and wind being the main concerns. Isolated damaging gusts may also accompany the stronger storms over the Upper Midwest. ...Northern High Plains... The prominent shortwave trough currently tracking across southeast OR will top the ridge over the northern High Plains on Saturday. As this happens, large scale forcing will overspread much of eastern MT/WY into the Dakotas. Deep southeasterly low-level winds into this region will result in a corridor of moderate instability from northeast WY into central MT, where steep low and mid-level lapse rates will contribute to MLCAPE values over 2000 J/kg. Thunderstorms will begin increasing by early afternoon, with storms spreading into the Dakotas by evening. Supercells and bowing structures are expected, with a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Upper Midwest... Current water vapor loop shows a weak shortwave trough over eastern WY. This feature will strengthen and move into the upper Midwest tomorrow. A surface cold front will extend from northeast IA into central WI by afternoon, providing the focus for scattered thunderstorm development. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak, but ample low-level moisture should provide sufficient CAPE for a few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds. A few of the 12z CAM solutions suggest a few organized storm clusters and some potential for a zone of greater severe concern from northeast IA into southwest WI. Will maintain MRGL risk for now, but monitor for an upgrade in later outlooks. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected on Saturday across much of the southern High Plains from eastern CO into southwest KS, the TX Panhandle, and eastern NM. Forecast soundings show steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient northwest flow aloft for some convective organization. Multiple clusters of storms capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail are expected. Parts of this region may need an upgrade to SLGT as mesoscale details become more clear. ..Hart.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY FROM CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains tomorrow (Saturday), with hail and wind being the main concerns. Isolated damaging gusts may also accompany the stronger storms over the Upper Midwest. ...Northern High Plains... The prominent shortwave trough currently tracking across southeast OR will top the ridge over the northern High Plains on Saturday. As this happens, large scale forcing will overspread much of eastern MT/WY into the Dakotas. Deep southeasterly low-level winds into this region will result in a corridor of moderate instability from northeast WY into central MT, where steep low and mid-level lapse rates will contribute to MLCAPE values over 2000 J/kg. Thunderstorms will begin increasing by early afternoon, with storms spreading into the Dakotas by evening. Supercells and bowing structures are expected, with a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Upper Midwest... Current water vapor loop shows a weak shortwave trough over eastern WY. This feature will strengthen and move into the upper Midwest tomorrow. A surface cold front will extend from northeast IA into central WI by afternoon, providing the focus for scattered thunderstorm development. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak, but ample low-level moisture should provide sufficient CAPE for a few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds. A few of the 12z CAM solutions suggest a few organized storm clusters and some potential for a zone of greater severe concern from northeast IA into southwest WI. Will maintain MRGL risk for now, but monitor for an upgrade in later outlooks. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected on Saturday across much of the southern High Plains from eastern CO into southwest KS, the TX Panhandle, and eastern NM. Forecast soundings show steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient northwest flow aloft for some convective organization. Multiple clusters of storms capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail are expected. Parts of this region may need an upgrade to SLGT as mesoscale details become more clear. ..Hart.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY FROM CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains tomorrow (Saturday), with hail and wind being the main concerns. Isolated damaging gusts may also accompany the stronger storms over the Upper Midwest. ...Northern High Plains... The prominent shortwave trough currently tracking across southeast OR will top the ridge over the northern High Plains on Saturday. As this happens, large scale forcing will overspread much of eastern MT/WY into the Dakotas. Deep southeasterly low-level winds into this region will result in a corridor of moderate instability from northeast WY into central MT, where steep low and mid-level lapse rates will contribute to MLCAPE values over 2000 J/kg. Thunderstorms will begin increasing by early afternoon, with storms spreading into the Dakotas by evening. Supercells and bowing structures are expected, with a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Upper Midwest... Current water vapor loop shows a weak shortwave trough over eastern WY. This feature will strengthen and move into the upper Midwest tomorrow. A surface cold front will extend from northeast IA into central WI by afternoon, providing the focus for scattered thunderstorm development. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak, but ample low-level moisture should provide sufficient CAPE for a few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds. A few of the 12z CAM solutions suggest a few organized storm clusters and some potential for a zone of greater severe concern from northeast IA into southwest WI. Will maintain MRGL risk for now, but monitor for an upgrade in later outlooks. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected on Saturday across much of the southern High Plains from eastern CO into southwest KS, the TX Panhandle, and eastern NM. Forecast soundings show steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient northwest flow aloft for some convective organization. Multiple clusters of storms capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail are expected. Parts of this region may need an upgrade to SLGT as mesoscale details become more clear. ..Hart.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY FROM CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains tomorrow (Saturday), with hail and wind being the main concerns. Isolated damaging gusts may also accompany the stronger storms over the Upper Midwest. ...Northern High Plains... The prominent shortwave trough currently tracking across southeast OR will top the ridge over the northern High Plains on Saturday. As this happens, large scale forcing will overspread much of eastern MT/WY into the Dakotas. Deep southeasterly low-level winds into this region will result in a corridor of moderate instability from northeast WY into central MT, where steep low and mid-level lapse rates will contribute to MLCAPE values over 2000 J/kg. Thunderstorms will begin increasing by early afternoon, with storms spreading into the Dakotas by evening. Supercells and bowing structures are expected, with a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Upper Midwest... Current water vapor loop shows a weak shortwave trough over eastern WY. This feature will strengthen and move into the upper Midwest tomorrow. A surface cold front will extend from northeast IA into central WI by afternoon, providing the focus for scattered thunderstorm development. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak, but ample low-level moisture should provide sufficient CAPE for a few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds. A few of the 12z CAM solutions suggest a few organized storm clusters and some potential for a zone of greater severe concern from northeast IA into southwest WI. Will maintain MRGL risk for now, but monitor for an upgrade in later outlooks. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected on Saturday across much of the southern High Plains from eastern CO into southwest KS, the TX Panhandle, and eastern NM. Forecast soundings show steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient northwest flow aloft for some convective organization. Multiple clusters of storms capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail are expected. Parts of this region may need an upgrade to SLGT as mesoscale details become more clear. ..Hart.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY FROM CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains tomorrow (Saturday), with hail and wind being the main concerns. Isolated damaging gusts may also accompany the stronger storms over the Upper Midwest. ...Northern High Plains... The prominent shortwave trough currently tracking across southeast OR will top the ridge over the northern High Plains on Saturday. As this happens, large scale forcing will overspread much of eastern MT/WY into the Dakotas. Deep southeasterly low-level winds into this region will result in a corridor of moderate instability from northeast WY into central MT, where steep low and mid-level lapse rates will contribute to MLCAPE values over 2000 J/kg. Thunderstorms will begin increasing by early afternoon, with storms spreading into the Dakotas by evening. Supercells and bowing structures are expected, with a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Upper Midwest... Current water vapor loop shows a weak shortwave trough over eastern WY. This feature will strengthen and move into the upper Midwest tomorrow. A surface cold front will extend from northeast IA into central WI by afternoon, providing the focus for scattered thunderstorm development. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak, but ample low-level moisture should provide sufficient CAPE for a few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds. A few of the 12z CAM solutions suggest a few organized storm clusters and some potential for a zone of greater severe concern from northeast IA into southwest WI. Will maintain MRGL risk for now, but monitor for an upgrade in later outlooks. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected on Saturday across much of the southern High Plains from eastern CO into southwest KS, the TX Panhandle, and eastern NM. Forecast soundings show steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient northwest flow aloft for some convective organization. Multiple clusters of storms capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail are expected. Parts of this region may need an upgrade to SLGT as mesoscale details become more clear. ..Hart.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY FROM CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains tomorrow (Saturday), with hail and wind being the main concerns. Isolated damaging gusts may also accompany the stronger storms over the Upper Midwest. ...Northern High Plains... The prominent shortwave trough currently tracking across southeast OR will top the ridge over the northern High Plains on Saturday. As this happens, large scale forcing will overspread much of eastern MT/WY into the Dakotas. Deep southeasterly low-level winds into this region will result in a corridor of moderate instability from northeast WY into central MT, where steep low and mid-level lapse rates will contribute to MLCAPE values over 2000 J/kg. Thunderstorms will begin increasing by early afternoon, with storms spreading into the Dakotas by evening. Supercells and bowing structures are expected, with a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Upper Midwest... Current water vapor loop shows a weak shortwave trough over eastern WY. This feature will strengthen and move into the upper Midwest tomorrow. A surface cold front will extend from northeast IA into central WI by afternoon, providing the focus for scattered thunderstorm development. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak, but ample low-level moisture should provide sufficient CAPE for a few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds. A few of the 12z CAM solutions suggest a few organized storm clusters and some potential for a zone of greater severe concern from northeast IA into southwest WI. Will maintain MRGL risk for now, but monitor for an upgrade in later outlooks. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected on Saturday across much of the southern High Plains from eastern CO into southwest KS, the TX Panhandle, and eastern NM. Forecast soundings show steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient northwest flow aloft for some convective organization. Multiple clusters of storms capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail are expected. Parts of this region may need an upgrade to SLGT as mesoscale details become more clear. ..Hart.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY FROM CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains tomorrow (Saturday), with hail and wind being the main concerns. Isolated damaging gusts may also accompany the stronger storms over the Upper Midwest. ...Northern High Plains... The prominent shortwave trough currently tracking across southeast OR will top the ridge over the northern High Plains on Saturday. As this happens, large scale forcing will overspread much of eastern MT/WY into the Dakotas. Deep southeasterly low-level winds into this region will result in a corridor of moderate instability from northeast WY into central MT, where steep low and mid-level lapse rates will contribute to MLCAPE values over 2000 J/kg. Thunderstorms will begin increasing by early afternoon, with storms spreading into the Dakotas by evening. Supercells and bowing structures are expected, with a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Upper Midwest... Current water vapor loop shows a weak shortwave trough over eastern WY. This feature will strengthen and move into the upper Midwest tomorrow. A surface cold front will extend from northeast IA into central WI by afternoon, providing the focus for scattered thunderstorm development. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak, but ample low-level moisture should provide sufficient CAPE for a few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds. A few of the 12z CAM solutions suggest a few organized storm clusters and some potential for a zone of greater severe concern from northeast IA into southwest WI. Will maintain MRGL risk for now, but monitor for an upgrade in later outlooks. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected on Saturday across much of the southern High Plains from eastern CO into southwest KS, the TX Panhandle, and eastern NM. Forecast soundings show steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient northwest flow aloft for some convective organization. Multiple clusters of storms capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail are expected. Parts of this region may need an upgrade to SLGT as mesoscale details become more clear. ..Hart.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY FROM CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains tomorrow (Saturday), with hail and wind being the main concerns. Isolated damaging gusts may also accompany the stronger storms over the Upper Midwest. ...Northern High Plains... The prominent shortwave trough currently tracking across southeast OR will top the ridge over the northern High Plains on Saturday. As this happens, large scale forcing will overspread much of eastern MT/WY into the Dakotas. Deep southeasterly low-level winds into this region will result in a corridor of moderate instability from northeast WY into central MT, where steep low and mid-level lapse rates will contribute to MLCAPE values over 2000 J/kg. Thunderstorms will begin increasing by early afternoon, with storms spreading into the Dakotas by evening. Supercells and bowing structures are expected, with a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Upper Midwest... Current water vapor loop shows a weak shortwave trough over eastern WY. This feature will strengthen and move into the upper Midwest tomorrow. A surface cold front will extend from northeast IA into central WI by afternoon, providing the focus for scattered thunderstorm development. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak, but ample low-level moisture should provide sufficient CAPE for a few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds. A few of the 12z CAM solutions suggest a few organized storm clusters and some potential for a zone of greater severe concern from northeast IA into southwest WI. Will maintain MRGL risk for now, but monitor for an upgrade in later outlooks. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected on Saturday across much of the southern High Plains from eastern CO into southwest KS, the TX Panhandle, and eastern NM. Forecast soundings show steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient northwest flow aloft for some convective organization. Multiple clusters of storms capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail are expected. Parts of this region may need an upgrade to SLGT as mesoscale details become more clear. ..Hart.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today into the evening over the Upper Midwest. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur from eastern Oregon into portions of the northern Great Basin/Rockies. ...Central High Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Recent satellite imagery shows expansive upper ridging from the Lower MS Valley into western Ontario, with several disturbances along the periphery of this ridge. The shortwave trough currently moving through the central Rockies/central High Plains will be the most impactful for today's severe potential as it continues northeastward towards the very moist airmass in place across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. Current surface observations reveal a large reservoir of dewpoints greater than 68 deg F across the northern/central Plains, with higher dewpoints (70+ deg F) farther northeastward across the Upper MS Valley. Strong heating is anticipated over the region, particularly the Upper Midwest, destabilizing the airmass by the early afternoon and contributing to strong to very strong buoyancy. Low-level convergence along a southeastward-progressing cold front, as well as along expected pre-frontal troughing, will augment large-scale ascent provided by the approaching shortwave. All of this lift will provide the impetus for convective initiation. Initial development appears most likely in the early afternoon (i.e. around 18Z) over northeast/eastern CO, NE Panhandle/western NE, and western KS. Vertical shear and buoyancy will be modest in this region, limiting storm strength and organization. Even so, steep low-level lapse rates and moderately high cloud bases could result in a few strong gusts. A relatively greater severe potential exists farther north over the eastern Dakotas into northern/central MN. Here, strong buoyancy (i.e. 2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE) is expected by the late afternoon. Vertical shear will be relatively modest, but the strong buoyancy should support robust updrafts capable of precipitation loading and water-loaded downbursts. Given the limited shear and progressive cold front, a quick transition to an outflow-dominant, linear structure is anticipated. A few stronger gusts are possible within this line as well. Isolated large hail could occur with the strongest, early-stage cellular storms. ...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies... Extensive cloud cover has begun to clear from south to north as a lead shortwave trough progresses through the region. Secondary shortwave trough currently moving through northern CA is expected to progress eastward/northeastward into the region later this afternoon, fostering additional storm development this afternoon. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 40-45 kt at 500 mb) will persist, supporting the potential for a few stronger/more organized updrafts. A locally greater severe wind risk may materialize across southern ID and northern UT where stronger heating and deeper mixing is anticipated. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today into the evening over the Upper Midwest. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur from eastern Oregon into portions of the northern Great Basin/Rockies. ...Central High Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Recent satellite imagery shows expansive upper ridging from the Lower MS Valley into western Ontario, with several disturbances along the periphery of this ridge. The shortwave trough currently moving through the central Rockies/central High Plains will be the most impactful for today's severe potential as it continues northeastward towards the very moist airmass in place across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. Current surface observations reveal a large reservoir of dewpoints greater than 68 deg F across the northern/central Plains, with higher dewpoints (70+ deg F) farther northeastward across the Upper MS Valley. Strong heating is anticipated over the region, particularly the Upper Midwest, destabilizing the airmass by the early afternoon and contributing to strong to very strong buoyancy. Low-level convergence along a southeastward-progressing cold front, as well as along expected pre-frontal troughing, will augment large-scale ascent provided by the approaching shortwave. All of this lift will provide the impetus for convective initiation. Initial development appears most likely in the early afternoon (i.e. around 18Z) over northeast/eastern CO, NE Panhandle/western NE, and western KS. Vertical shear and buoyancy will be modest in this region, limiting storm strength and organization. Even so, steep low-level lapse rates and moderately high cloud bases could result in a few strong gusts. A relatively greater severe potential exists farther north over the eastern Dakotas into northern/central MN. Here, strong buoyancy (i.e. 2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE) is expected by the late afternoon. Vertical shear will be relatively modest, but the strong buoyancy should support robust updrafts capable of precipitation loading and water-loaded downbursts. Given the limited shear and progressive cold front, a quick transition to an outflow-dominant, linear structure is anticipated. A few stronger gusts are possible within this line as well. Isolated large hail could occur with the strongest, early-stage cellular storms. ...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies... Extensive cloud cover has begun to clear from south to north as a lead shortwave trough progresses through the region. Secondary shortwave trough currently moving through northern CA is expected to progress eastward/northeastward into the region later this afternoon, fostering additional storm development this afternoon. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 40-45 kt at 500 mb) will persist, supporting the potential for a few stronger/more organized updrafts. A locally greater severe wind risk may materialize across southern ID and northern UT where stronger heating and deeper mixing is anticipated. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today into the evening over the Upper Midwest. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur from eastern Oregon into portions of the northern Great Basin/Rockies. ...Central High Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Recent satellite imagery shows expansive upper ridging from the Lower MS Valley into western Ontario, with several disturbances along the periphery of this ridge. The shortwave trough currently moving through the central Rockies/central High Plains will be the most impactful for today's severe potential as it continues northeastward towards the very moist airmass in place across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. Current surface observations reveal a large reservoir of dewpoints greater than 68 deg F across the northern/central Plains, with higher dewpoints (70+ deg F) farther northeastward across the Upper MS Valley. Strong heating is anticipated over the region, particularly the Upper Midwest, destabilizing the airmass by the early afternoon and contributing to strong to very strong buoyancy. Low-level convergence along a southeastward-progressing cold front, as well as along expected pre-frontal troughing, will augment large-scale ascent provided by the approaching shortwave. All of this lift will provide the impetus for convective initiation. Initial development appears most likely in the early afternoon (i.e. around 18Z) over northeast/eastern CO, NE Panhandle/western NE, and western KS. Vertical shear and buoyancy will be modest in this region, limiting storm strength and organization. Even so, steep low-level lapse rates and moderately high cloud bases could result in a few strong gusts. A relatively greater severe potential exists farther north over the eastern Dakotas into northern/central MN. Here, strong buoyancy (i.e. 2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE) is expected by the late afternoon. Vertical shear will be relatively modest, but the strong buoyancy should support robust updrafts capable of precipitation loading and water-loaded downbursts. Given the limited shear and progressive cold front, a quick transition to an outflow-dominant, linear structure is anticipated. A few stronger gusts are possible within this line as well. Isolated large hail could occur with the strongest, early-stage cellular storms. ...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies... Extensive cloud cover has begun to clear from south to north as a lead shortwave trough progresses through the region. Secondary shortwave trough currently moving through northern CA is expected to progress eastward/northeastward into the region later this afternoon, fostering additional storm development this afternoon. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 40-45 kt at 500 mb) will persist, supporting the potential for a few stronger/more organized updrafts. A locally greater severe wind risk may materialize across southern ID and northern UT where stronger heating and deeper mixing is anticipated. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today into the evening over the Upper Midwest. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur from eastern Oregon into portions of the northern Great Basin/Rockies. ...Central High Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Recent satellite imagery shows expansive upper ridging from the Lower MS Valley into western Ontario, with several disturbances along the periphery of this ridge. The shortwave trough currently moving through the central Rockies/central High Plains will be the most impactful for today's severe potential as it continues northeastward towards the very moist airmass in place across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. Current surface observations reveal a large reservoir of dewpoints greater than 68 deg F across the northern/central Plains, with higher dewpoints (70+ deg F) farther northeastward across the Upper MS Valley. Strong heating is anticipated over the region, particularly the Upper Midwest, destabilizing the airmass by the early afternoon and contributing to strong to very strong buoyancy. Low-level convergence along a southeastward-progressing cold front, as well as along expected pre-frontal troughing, will augment large-scale ascent provided by the approaching shortwave. All of this lift will provide the impetus for convective initiation. Initial development appears most likely in the early afternoon (i.e. around 18Z) over northeast/eastern CO, NE Panhandle/western NE, and western KS. Vertical shear and buoyancy will be modest in this region, limiting storm strength and organization. Even so, steep low-level lapse rates and moderately high cloud bases could result in a few strong gusts. A relatively greater severe potential exists farther north over the eastern Dakotas into northern/central MN. Here, strong buoyancy (i.e. 2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE) is expected by the late afternoon. Vertical shear will be relatively modest, but the strong buoyancy should support robust updrafts capable of precipitation loading and water-loaded downbursts. Given the limited shear and progressive cold front, a quick transition to an outflow-dominant, linear structure is anticipated. A few stronger gusts are possible within this line as well. Isolated large hail could occur with the strongest, early-stage cellular storms. ...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies... Extensive cloud cover has begun to clear from south to north as a lead shortwave trough progresses through the region. Secondary shortwave trough currently moving through northern CA is expected to progress eastward/northeastward into the region later this afternoon, fostering additional storm development this afternoon. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 40-45 kt at 500 mb) will persist, supporting the potential for a few stronger/more organized updrafts. A locally greater severe wind risk may materialize across southern ID and northern UT where stronger heating and deeper mixing is anticipated. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today into the evening over the Upper Midwest. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur from eastern Oregon into portions of the northern Great Basin/Rockies. ...Central High Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Recent satellite imagery shows expansive upper ridging from the Lower MS Valley into western Ontario, with several disturbances along the periphery of this ridge. The shortwave trough currently moving through the central Rockies/central High Plains will be the most impactful for today's severe potential as it continues northeastward towards the very moist airmass in place across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. Current surface observations reveal a large reservoir of dewpoints greater than 68 deg F across the northern/central Plains, with higher dewpoints (70+ deg F) farther northeastward across the Upper MS Valley. Strong heating is anticipated over the region, particularly the Upper Midwest, destabilizing the airmass by the early afternoon and contributing to strong to very strong buoyancy. Low-level convergence along a southeastward-progressing cold front, as well as along expected pre-frontal troughing, will augment large-scale ascent provided by the approaching shortwave. All of this lift will provide the impetus for convective initiation. Initial development appears most likely in the early afternoon (i.e. around 18Z) over northeast/eastern CO, NE Panhandle/western NE, and western KS. Vertical shear and buoyancy will be modest in this region, limiting storm strength and organization. Even so, steep low-level lapse rates and moderately high cloud bases could result in a few strong gusts. A relatively greater severe potential exists farther north over the eastern Dakotas into northern/central MN. Here, strong buoyancy (i.e. 2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE) is expected by the late afternoon. Vertical shear will be relatively modest, but the strong buoyancy should support robust updrafts capable of precipitation loading and water-loaded downbursts. Given the limited shear and progressive cold front, a quick transition to an outflow-dominant, linear structure is anticipated. A few stronger gusts are possible within this line as well. Isolated large hail could occur with the strongest, early-stage cellular storms. ...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies... Extensive cloud cover has begun to clear from south to north as a lead shortwave trough progresses through the region. Secondary shortwave trough currently moving through northern CA is expected to progress eastward/northeastward into the region later this afternoon, fostering additional storm development this afternoon. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 40-45 kt at 500 mb) will persist, supporting the potential for a few stronger/more organized updrafts. A locally greater severe wind risk may materialize across southern ID and northern UT where stronger heating and deeper mixing is anticipated. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today into the evening over the Upper Midwest. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur from eastern Oregon into portions of the northern Great Basin/Rockies. ...Central High Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Recent satellite imagery shows expansive upper ridging from the Lower MS Valley into western Ontario, with several disturbances along the periphery of this ridge. The shortwave trough currently moving through the central Rockies/central High Plains will be the most impactful for today's severe potential as it continues northeastward towards the very moist airmass in place across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. Current surface observations reveal a large reservoir of dewpoints greater than 68 deg F across the northern/central Plains, with higher dewpoints (70+ deg F) farther northeastward across the Upper MS Valley. Strong heating is anticipated over the region, particularly the Upper Midwest, destabilizing the airmass by the early afternoon and contributing to strong to very strong buoyancy. Low-level convergence along a southeastward-progressing cold front, as well as along expected pre-frontal troughing, will augment large-scale ascent provided by the approaching shortwave. All of this lift will provide the impetus for convective initiation. Initial development appears most likely in the early afternoon (i.e. around 18Z) over northeast/eastern CO, NE Panhandle/western NE, and western KS. Vertical shear and buoyancy will be modest in this region, limiting storm strength and organization. Even so, steep low-level lapse rates and moderately high cloud bases could result in a few strong gusts. A relatively greater severe potential exists farther north over the eastern Dakotas into northern/central MN. Here, strong buoyancy (i.e. 2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE) is expected by the late afternoon. Vertical shear will be relatively modest, but the strong buoyancy should support robust updrafts capable of precipitation loading and water-loaded downbursts. Given the limited shear and progressive cold front, a quick transition to an outflow-dominant, linear structure is anticipated. A few stronger gusts are possible within this line as well. Isolated large hail could occur with the strongest, early-stage cellular storms. ...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies... Extensive cloud cover has begun to clear from south to north as a lead shortwave trough progresses through the region. Secondary shortwave trough currently moving through northern CA is expected to progress eastward/northeastward into the region later this afternoon, fostering additional storm development this afternoon. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 40-45 kt at 500 mb) will persist, supporting the potential for a few stronger/more organized updrafts. A locally greater severe wind risk may materialize across southern ID and northern UT where stronger heating and deeper mixing is anticipated. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today into the evening over the Upper Midwest. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur from eastern Oregon into portions of the northern Great Basin/Rockies. ...Central High Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Recent satellite imagery shows expansive upper ridging from the Lower MS Valley into western Ontario, with several disturbances along the periphery of this ridge. The shortwave trough currently moving through the central Rockies/central High Plains will be the most impactful for today's severe potential as it continues northeastward towards the very moist airmass in place across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. Current surface observations reveal a large reservoir of dewpoints greater than 68 deg F across the northern/central Plains, with higher dewpoints (70+ deg F) farther northeastward across the Upper MS Valley. Strong heating is anticipated over the region, particularly the Upper Midwest, destabilizing the airmass by the early afternoon and contributing to strong to very strong buoyancy. Low-level convergence along a southeastward-progressing cold front, as well as along expected pre-frontal troughing, will augment large-scale ascent provided by the approaching shortwave. All of this lift will provide the impetus for convective initiation. Initial development appears most likely in the early afternoon (i.e. around 18Z) over northeast/eastern CO, NE Panhandle/western NE, and western KS. Vertical shear and buoyancy will be modest in this region, limiting storm strength and organization. Even so, steep low-level lapse rates and moderately high cloud bases could result in a few strong gusts. A relatively greater severe potential exists farther north over the eastern Dakotas into northern/central MN. Here, strong buoyancy (i.e. 2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE) is expected by the late afternoon. Vertical shear will be relatively modest, but the strong buoyancy should support robust updrafts capable of precipitation loading and water-loaded downbursts. Given the limited shear and progressive cold front, a quick transition to an outflow-dominant, linear structure is anticipated. A few stronger gusts are possible within this line as well. Isolated large hail could occur with the strongest, early-stage cellular storms. ...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies... Extensive cloud cover has begun to clear from south to north as a lead shortwave trough progresses through the region. Secondary shortwave trough currently moving through northern CA is expected to progress eastward/northeastward into the region later this afternoon, fostering additional storm development this afternoon. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 40-45 kt at 500 mb) will persist, supporting the potential for a few stronger/more organized updrafts. A locally greater severe wind risk may materialize across southern ID and northern UT where stronger heating and deeper mixing is anticipated. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today into the evening over the Upper Midwest. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur from eastern Oregon into portions of the northern Great Basin/Rockies. ...Central High Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Recent satellite imagery shows expansive upper ridging from the Lower MS Valley into western Ontario, with several disturbances along the periphery of this ridge. The shortwave trough currently moving through the central Rockies/central High Plains will be the most impactful for today's severe potential as it continues northeastward towards the very moist airmass in place across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. Current surface observations reveal a large reservoir of dewpoints greater than 68 deg F across the northern/central Plains, with higher dewpoints (70+ deg F) farther northeastward across the Upper MS Valley. Strong heating is anticipated over the region, particularly the Upper Midwest, destabilizing the airmass by the early afternoon and contributing to strong to very strong buoyancy. Low-level convergence along a southeastward-progressing cold front, as well as along expected pre-frontal troughing, will augment large-scale ascent provided by the approaching shortwave. All of this lift will provide the impetus for convective initiation. Initial development appears most likely in the early afternoon (i.e. around 18Z) over northeast/eastern CO, NE Panhandle/western NE, and western KS. Vertical shear and buoyancy will be modest in this region, limiting storm strength and organization. Even so, steep low-level lapse rates and moderately high cloud bases could result in a few strong gusts. A relatively greater severe potential exists farther north over the eastern Dakotas into northern/central MN. Here, strong buoyancy (i.e. 2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE) is expected by the late afternoon. Vertical shear will be relatively modest, but the strong buoyancy should support robust updrafts capable of precipitation loading and water-loaded downbursts. Given the limited shear and progressive cold front, a quick transition to an outflow-dominant, linear structure is anticipated. A few stronger gusts are possible within this line as well. Isolated large hail could occur with the strongest, early-stage cellular storms. ...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies... Extensive cloud cover has begun to clear from south to north as a lead shortwave trough progresses through the region. Secondary shortwave trough currently moving through northern CA is expected to progress eastward/northeastward into the region later this afternoon, fostering additional storm development this afternoon. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 40-45 kt at 500 mb) will persist, supporting the potential for a few stronger/more organized updrafts. A locally greater severe wind risk may materialize across southern ID and northern UT where stronger heating and deeper mixing is anticipated. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today into the evening over the Upper Midwest. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur from eastern Oregon into portions of the northern Great Basin/Rockies. ...Central High Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Recent satellite imagery shows expansive upper ridging from the Lower MS Valley into western Ontario, with several disturbances along the periphery of this ridge. The shortwave trough currently moving through the central Rockies/central High Plains will be the most impactful for today's severe potential as it continues northeastward towards the very moist airmass in place across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. Current surface observations reveal a large reservoir of dewpoints greater than 68 deg F across the northern/central Plains, with higher dewpoints (70+ deg F) farther northeastward across the Upper MS Valley. Strong heating is anticipated over the region, particularly the Upper Midwest, destabilizing the airmass by the early afternoon and contributing to strong to very strong buoyancy. Low-level convergence along a southeastward-progressing cold front, as well as along expected pre-frontal troughing, will augment large-scale ascent provided by the approaching shortwave. All of this lift will provide the impetus for convective initiation. Initial development appears most likely in the early afternoon (i.e. around 18Z) over northeast/eastern CO, NE Panhandle/western NE, and western KS. Vertical shear and buoyancy will be modest in this region, limiting storm strength and organization. Even so, steep low-level lapse rates and moderately high cloud bases could result in a few strong gusts. A relatively greater severe potential exists farther north over the eastern Dakotas into northern/central MN. Here, strong buoyancy (i.e. 2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE) is expected by the late afternoon. Vertical shear will be relatively modest, but the strong buoyancy should support robust updrafts capable of precipitation loading and water-loaded downbursts. Given the limited shear and progressive cold front, a quick transition to an outflow-dominant, linear structure is anticipated. A few stronger gusts are possible within this line as well. Isolated large hail could occur with the strongest, early-stage cellular storms. ...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies... Extensive cloud cover has begun to clear from south to north as a lead shortwave trough progresses through the region. Secondary shortwave trough currently moving through northern CA is expected to progress eastward/northeastward into the region later this afternoon, fostering additional storm development this afternoon. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 40-45 kt at 500 mb) will persist, supporting the potential for a few stronger/more organized updrafts. A locally greater severe wind risk may materialize across southern ID and northern UT where stronger heating and deeper mixing is anticipated. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today into the evening over the Upper Midwest. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur from eastern Oregon into portions of the northern Great Basin/Rockies. ...Central High Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Recent satellite imagery shows expansive upper ridging from the Lower MS Valley into western Ontario, with several disturbances along the periphery of this ridge. The shortwave trough currently moving through the central Rockies/central High Plains will be the most impactful for today's severe potential as it continues northeastward towards the very moist airmass in place across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. Current surface observations reveal a large reservoir of dewpoints greater than 68 deg F across the northern/central Plains, with higher dewpoints (70+ deg F) farther northeastward across the Upper MS Valley. Strong heating is anticipated over the region, particularly the Upper Midwest, destabilizing the airmass by the early afternoon and contributing to strong to very strong buoyancy. Low-level convergence along a southeastward-progressing cold front, as well as along expected pre-frontal troughing, will augment large-scale ascent provided by the approaching shortwave. All of this lift will provide the impetus for convective initiation. Initial development appears most likely in the early afternoon (i.e. around 18Z) over northeast/eastern CO, NE Panhandle/western NE, and western KS. Vertical shear and buoyancy will be modest in this region, limiting storm strength and organization. Even so, steep low-level lapse rates and moderately high cloud bases could result in a few strong gusts. A relatively greater severe potential exists farther north over the eastern Dakotas into northern/central MN. Here, strong buoyancy (i.e. 2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE) is expected by the late afternoon. Vertical shear will be relatively modest, but the strong buoyancy should support robust updrafts capable of precipitation loading and water-loaded downbursts. Given the limited shear and progressive cold front, a quick transition to an outflow-dominant, linear structure is anticipated. A few stronger gusts are possible within this line as well. Isolated large hail could occur with the strongest, early-stage cellular storms. ...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies... Extensive cloud cover has begun to clear from south to north as a lead shortwave trough progresses through the region. Secondary shortwave trough currently moving through northern CA is expected to progress eastward/northeastward into the region later this afternoon, fostering additional storm development this afternoon. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 40-45 kt at 500 mb) will persist, supporting the potential for a few stronger/more organized updrafts. A locally greater severe wind risk may materialize across southern ID and northern UT where stronger heating and deeper mixing is anticipated. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today into the evening over the Upper Midwest. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur from eastern Oregon into portions of the northern Great Basin/Rockies. ...Central High Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Recent satellite imagery shows expansive upper ridging from the Lower MS Valley into western Ontario, with several disturbances along the periphery of this ridge. The shortwave trough currently moving through the central Rockies/central High Plains will be the most impactful for today's severe potential as it continues northeastward towards the very moist airmass in place across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. Current surface observations reveal a large reservoir of dewpoints greater than 68 deg F across the northern/central Plains, with higher dewpoints (70+ deg F) farther northeastward across the Upper MS Valley. Strong heating is anticipated over the region, particularly the Upper Midwest, destabilizing the airmass by the early afternoon and contributing to strong to very strong buoyancy. Low-level convergence along a southeastward-progressing cold front, as well as along expected pre-frontal troughing, will augment large-scale ascent provided by the approaching shortwave. All of this lift will provide the impetus for convective initiation. Initial development appears most likely in the early afternoon (i.e. around 18Z) over northeast/eastern CO, NE Panhandle/western NE, and western KS. Vertical shear and buoyancy will be modest in this region, limiting storm strength and organization. Even so, steep low-level lapse rates and moderately high cloud bases could result in a few strong gusts. A relatively greater severe potential exists farther north over the eastern Dakotas into northern/central MN. Here, strong buoyancy (i.e. 2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE) is expected by the late afternoon. Vertical shear will be relatively modest, but the strong buoyancy should support robust updrafts capable of precipitation loading and water-loaded downbursts. Given the limited shear and progressive cold front, a quick transition to an outflow-dominant, linear structure is anticipated. A few stronger gusts are possible within this line as well. Isolated large hail could occur with the strongest, early-stage cellular storms. ...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies... Extensive cloud cover has begun to clear from south to north as a lead shortwave trough progresses through the region. Secondary shortwave trough currently moving through northern CA is expected to progress eastward/northeastward into the region later this afternoon, fostering additional storm development this afternoon. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 40-45 kt at 500 mb) will persist, supporting the potential for a few stronger/more organized updrafts. A locally greater severe wind risk may materialize across southern ID and northern UT where stronger heating and deeper mixing is anticipated. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/04/2025 Read more