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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Split flow is expected to prevail throughout the period, with the northern stream extending from the off the Pacific Northwest coast eastward along the international border vicinity and through the Upper Great Lakes and Northeast. Several shortwave troughs are expected to traverse through this belt of enhanced flow, but stable conditions will persist across the majority of the region. The only exception is along the Pacific Northwest coast, where convection is possible within any frontal bands that move ashore. Within the southern stream, a slow-moving shortwave trough is forecast to move across TX on D5/Monday, contributing to the development of a surface low over the western Gulf of Mexico. Thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of this low, with some potentially impacting portions of southeast TX and southern LA on D5/Monday and the central Gulf Coast on D6/Tuesday. Limited buoyancy and shear should keep the severe potential low. Medium-range guidance is coming into better agreement regarding the potential for a substantial upper trough to move over the West Coast during the latter half of next week. Evolution of this system into next weekend is still uncertain, but this trough could lead to a more consolidated upper pattern across the CONUS, bringing the storm track closer to the low-level moisture. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Split flow is expected to prevail throughout the period, with the northern stream extending from the off the Pacific Northwest coast eastward along the international border vicinity and through the Upper Great Lakes and Northeast. Several shortwave troughs are expected to traverse through this belt of enhanced flow, but stable conditions will persist across the majority of the region. The only exception is along the Pacific Northwest coast, where convection is possible within any frontal bands that move ashore. Within the southern stream, a slow-moving shortwave trough is forecast to move across TX on D5/Monday, contributing to the development of a surface low over the western Gulf of Mexico. Thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of this low, with some potentially impacting portions of southeast TX and southern LA on D5/Monday and the central Gulf Coast on D6/Tuesday. Limited buoyancy and shear should keep the severe potential low. Medium-range guidance is coming into better agreement regarding the potential for a substantial upper trough to move over the West Coast during the latter half of next week. Evolution of this system into next weekend is still uncertain, but this trough could lead to a more consolidated upper pattern across the CONUS, bringing the storm track closer to the low-level moisture. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Split flow is expected to prevail throughout the period, with the northern stream extending from the off the Pacific Northwest coast eastward along the international border vicinity and through the Upper Great Lakes and Northeast. Several shortwave troughs are expected to traverse through this belt of enhanced flow, but stable conditions will persist across the majority of the region. The only exception is along the Pacific Northwest coast, where convection is possible within any frontal bands that move ashore. Within the southern stream, a slow-moving shortwave trough is forecast to move across TX on D5/Monday, contributing to the development of a surface low over the western Gulf of Mexico. Thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of this low, with some potentially impacting portions of southeast TX and southern LA on D5/Monday and the central Gulf Coast on D6/Tuesday. Limited buoyancy and shear should keep the severe potential low. Medium-range guidance is coming into better agreement regarding the potential for a substantial upper trough to move over the West Coast during the latter half of next week. Evolution of this system into next weekend is still uncertain, but this trough could lead to a more consolidated upper pattern across the CONUS, bringing the storm track closer to the low-level moisture. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Split flow is expected to prevail throughout the period, with the northern stream extending from the off the Pacific Northwest coast eastward along the international border vicinity and through the Upper Great Lakes and Northeast. Several shortwave troughs are expected to traverse through this belt of enhanced flow, but stable conditions will persist across the majority of the region. The only exception is along the Pacific Northwest coast, where convection is possible within any frontal bands that move ashore. Within the southern stream, a slow-moving shortwave trough is forecast to move across TX on D5/Monday, contributing to the development of a surface low over the western Gulf of Mexico. Thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of this low, with some potentially impacting portions of southeast TX and southern LA on D5/Monday and the central Gulf Coast on D6/Tuesday. Limited buoyancy and shear should keep the severe potential low. Medium-range guidance is coming into better agreement regarding the potential for a substantial upper trough to move over the West Coast during the latter half of next week. Evolution of this system into next weekend is still uncertain, but this trough could lead to a more consolidated upper pattern across the CONUS, bringing the storm track closer to the low-level moisture. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Split flow is expected to prevail throughout the period, with the northern stream extending from the off the Pacific Northwest coast eastward along the international border vicinity and through the Upper Great Lakes and Northeast. Several shortwave troughs are expected to traverse through this belt of enhanced flow, but stable conditions will persist across the majority of the region. The only exception is along the Pacific Northwest coast, where convection is possible within any frontal bands that move ashore. Within the southern stream, a slow-moving shortwave trough is forecast to move across TX on D5/Monday, contributing to the development of a surface low over the western Gulf of Mexico. Thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of this low, with some potentially impacting portions of southeast TX and southern LA on D5/Monday and the central Gulf Coast on D6/Tuesday. Limited buoyancy and shear should keep the severe potential low. Medium-range guidance is coming into better agreement regarding the potential for a substantial upper trough to move over the West Coast during the latter half of next week. Evolution of this system into next weekend is still uncertain, but this trough could lead to a more consolidated upper pattern across the CONUS, bringing the storm track closer to the low-level moisture. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far northwest Washington on Saturday. Thunderstorms are not expected elsewhere. ...Synopsis... A northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to extend across the northern and central High Plains early Saturday morning, with another shortwave trough in its wake over British Columbia and WA. Both of these shortwaves are expected to make steady eastward progress throughout the day, with the lead wave reaching the Upper/Mid MS Valley and the second wave reaching eastern Saskatchewan. The progressive train of shortwaves within the northern stream is expected to continue with another wave entering the Pacific Northwest/southern British Columbia Saturday morning, and reaching central Saskatchewan by Sunday morning. Strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could result in isolated lightning flashes Saturday morning. Farther south, a southern-stream shortwave trough initially extending from eastern AZ into northern Baja will drift southward into northwest Mexico, becoming increasingly displaced south of the stronger westerly flow aloft. The evolution of these waves will be displaced north and west of any low-level moisture, which is expected to be confined to the immediate Gulf Coast and over FL. Moist southwesterly flow aloft will remain over the region, with a shortwave trough expected to progress through this flow from the middle TX Coast into southern LA. A few lightning flashes are possible in the vicinity of this wave along the immediate coast, but coverage over land areas is expected to remain less than 10%. ..Mosier.. 11/09/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far northwest Washington on Saturday. Thunderstorms are not expected elsewhere. ...Synopsis... A northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to extend across the northern and central High Plains early Saturday morning, with another shortwave trough in its wake over British Columbia and WA. Both of these shortwaves are expected to make steady eastward progress throughout the day, with the lead wave reaching the Upper/Mid MS Valley and the second wave reaching eastern Saskatchewan. The progressive train of shortwaves within the northern stream is expected to continue with another wave entering the Pacific Northwest/southern British Columbia Saturday morning, and reaching central Saskatchewan by Sunday morning. Strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could result in isolated lightning flashes Saturday morning. Farther south, a southern-stream shortwave trough initially extending from eastern AZ into northern Baja will drift southward into northwest Mexico, becoming increasingly displaced south of the stronger westerly flow aloft. The evolution of these waves will be displaced north and west of any low-level moisture, which is expected to be confined to the immediate Gulf Coast and over FL. Moist southwesterly flow aloft will remain over the region, with a shortwave trough expected to progress through this flow from the middle TX Coast into southern LA. A few lightning flashes are possible in the vicinity of this wave along the immediate coast, but coverage over land areas is expected to remain less than 10%. ..Mosier.. 11/09/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far northwest Washington on Saturday. Thunderstorms are not expected elsewhere. ...Synopsis... A northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to extend across the northern and central High Plains early Saturday morning, with another shortwave trough in its wake over British Columbia and WA. Both of these shortwaves are expected to make steady eastward progress throughout the day, with the lead wave reaching the Upper/Mid MS Valley and the second wave reaching eastern Saskatchewan. The progressive train of shortwaves within the northern stream is expected to continue with another wave entering the Pacific Northwest/southern British Columbia Saturday morning, and reaching central Saskatchewan by Sunday morning. Strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could result in isolated lightning flashes Saturday morning. Farther south, a southern-stream shortwave trough initially extending from eastern AZ into northern Baja will drift southward into northwest Mexico, becoming increasingly displaced south of the stronger westerly flow aloft. The evolution of these waves will be displaced north and west of any low-level moisture, which is expected to be confined to the immediate Gulf Coast and over FL. Moist southwesterly flow aloft will remain over the region, with a shortwave trough expected to progress through this flow from the middle TX Coast into southern LA. A few lightning flashes are possible in the vicinity of this wave along the immediate coast, but coverage over land areas is expected to remain less than 10%. ..Mosier.. 11/09/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far northwest Washington on Saturday. Thunderstorms are not expected elsewhere. ...Synopsis... A northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to extend across the northern and central High Plains early Saturday morning, with another shortwave trough in its wake over British Columbia and WA. Both of these shortwaves are expected to make steady eastward progress throughout the day, with the lead wave reaching the Upper/Mid MS Valley and the second wave reaching eastern Saskatchewan. The progressive train of shortwaves within the northern stream is expected to continue with another wave entering the Pacific Northwest/southern British Columbia Saturday morning, and reaching central Saskatchewan by Sunday morning. Strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could result in isolated lightning flashes Saturday morning. Farther south, a southern-stream shortwave trough initially extending from eastern AZ into northern Baja will drift southward into northwest Mexico, becoming increasingly displaced south of the stronger westerly flow aloft. The evolution of these waves will be displaced north and west of any low-level moisture, which is expected to be confined to the immediate Gulf Coast and over FL. Moist southwesterly flow aloft will remain over the region, with a shortwave trough expected to progress through this flow from the middle TX Coast into southern LA. A few lightning flashes are possible in the vicinity of this wave along the immediate coast, but coverage over land areas is expected to remain less than 10%. ..Mosier.. 11/09/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far northwest Washington on Saturday. Thunderstorms are not expected elsewhere. ...Synopsis... A northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to extend across the northern and central High Plains early Saturday morning, with another shortwave trough in its wake over British Columbia and WA. Both of these shortwaves are expected to make steady eastward progress throughout the day, with the lead wave reaching the Upper/Mid MS Valley and the second wave reaching eastern Saskatchewan. The progressive train of shortwaves within the northern stream is expected to continue with another wave entering the Pacific Northwest/southern British Columbia Saturday morning, and reaching central Saskatchewan by Sunday morning. Strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could result in isolated lightning flashes Saturday morning. Farther south, a southern-stream shortwave trough initially extending from eastern AZ into northern Baja will drift southward into northwest Mexico, becoming increasingly displaced south of the stronger westerly flow aloft. The evolution of these waves will be displaced north and west of any low-level moisture, which is expected to be confined to the immediate Gulf Coast and over FL. Moist southwesterly flow aloft will remain over the region, with a shortwave trough expected to progress through this flow from the middle TX Coast into southern LA. A few lightning flashes are possible in the vicinity of this wave along the immediate coast, but coverage over land areas is expected to remain less than 10%. ..Mosier.. 11/09/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A zonal mid-level pattern will lead to mostly benign fire weather concerns on Friday. Some short-term dry and breezy conditions are possible in the wake of a cold front across the Ohio Valley on Friday. However, fuels in this region are moist and therefore, fire weather concerns will be marginal. The somewhat greater, albeit still low-end, fire weather threat may exist across parts of the southern-central High Plains. A weak lee cyclone will develop in the Plains as a weak shortwave trough crosses the central Rockies. A narrow corridor of dry/breezy southerly flow may develop along the Colorado/Kansas Border. However, the spatial coverage is too limited for an Elevated area at this time. ..Bentley.. 11/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A zonal mid-level pattern will lead to mostly benign fire weather concerns on Friday. Some short-term dry and breezy conditions are possible in the wake of a cold front across the Ohio Valley on Friday. However, fuels in this region are moist and therefore, fire weather concerns will be marginal. The somewhat greater, albeit still low-end, fire weather threat may exist across parts of the southern-central High Plains. A weak lee cyclone will develop in the Plains as a weak shortwave trough crosses the central Rockies. A narrow corridor of dry/breezy southerly flow may develop along the Colorado/Kansas Border. However, the spatial coverage is too limited for an Elevated area at this time. ..Bentley.. 11/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A zonal mid-level pattern will lead to mostly benign fire weather concerns on Friday. Some short-term dry and breezy conditions are possible in the wake of a cold front across the Ohio Valley on Friday. However, fuels in this region are moist and therefore, fire weather concerns will be marginal. The somewhat greater, albeit still low-end, fire weather threat may exist across parts of the southern-central High Plains. A weak lee cyclone will develop in the Plains as a weak shortwave trough crosses the central Rockies. A narrow corridor of dry/breezy southerly flow may develop along the Colorado/Kansas Border. However, the spatial coverage is too limited for an Elevated area at this time. ..Bentley.. 11/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A zonal mid-level pattern will lead to mostly benign fire weather concerns on Friday. Some short-term dry and breezy conditions are possible in the wake of a cold front across the Ohio Valley on Friday. However, fuels in this region are moist and therefore, fire weather concerns will be marginal. The somewhat greater, albeit still low-end, fire weather threat may exist across parts of the southern-central High Plains. A weak lee cyclone will develop in the Plains as a weak shortwave trough crosses the central Rockies. A narrow corridor of dry/breezy southerly flow may develop along the Colorado/Kansas Border. However, the spatial coverage is too limited for an Elevated area at this time. ..Bentley.. 11/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A zonal mid-level pattern will lead to mostly benign fire weather concerns on Friday. Some short-term dry and breezy conditions are possible in the wake of a cold front across the Ohio Valley on Friday. However, fuels in this region are moist and therefore, fire weather concerns will be marginal. The somewhat greater, albeit still low-end, fire weather threat may exist across parts of the southern-central High Plains. A weak lee cyclone will develop in the Plains as a weak shortwave trough crosses the central Rockies. A narrow corridor of dry/breezy southerly flow may develop along the Colorado/Kansas Border. However, the spatial coverage is too limited for an Elevated area at this time. ..Bentley.. 11/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LAS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS... ...Synopsis... Within the last 6 hours, Critical fire weather conditions have been observed at 6 observation sites across southern California. The LAX/TPH gradient is currently -9.3 at 06Z , down from a peak of -10.5 at 03Z. Expect this gradient to maintain into the morning hours before starting to relax by late morning. Expect Elevated fire weather concerns to wane by this evening as the gradient continues to weaken. Some dry and breezy conditions are expected across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest this afternoon, but fuels remain moist in this region and therefore, no fire weather highlights are necessary. ..Bentley.. 11/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LAS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS... ...Synopsis... Within the last 6 hours, Critical fire weather conditions have been observed at 6 observation sites across southern California. The LAX/TPH gradient is currently -9.3 at 06Z , down from a peak of -10.5 at 03Z. Expect this gradient to maintain into the morning hours before starting to relax by late morning. Expect Elevated fire weather concerns to wane by this evening as the gradient continues to weaken. Some dry and breezy conditions are expected across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest this afternoon, but fuels remain moist in this region and therefore, no fire weather highlights are necessary. ..Bentley.. 11/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LAS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS... ...Synopsis... Within the last 6 hours, Critical fire weather conditions have been observed at 6 observation sites across southern California. The LAX/TPH gradient is currently -9.3 at 06Z , down from a peak of -10.5 at 03Z. Expect this gradient to maintain into the morning hours before starting to relax by late morning. Expect Elevated fire weather concerns to wane by this evening as the gradient continues to weaken. Some dry and breezy conditions are expected across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest this afternoon, but fuels remain moist in this region and therefore, no fire weather highlights are necessary. ..Bentley.. 11/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LAS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS... ...Synopsis... Within the last 6 hours, Critical fire weather conditions have been observed at 6 observation sites across southern California. The LAX/TPH gradient is currently -9.3 at 06Z , down from a peak of -10.5 at 03Z. Expect this gradient to maintain into the morning hours before starting to relax by late morning. Expect Elevated fire weather concerns to wane by this evening as the gradient continues to weaken. Some dry and breezy conditions are expected across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest this afternoon, but fuels remain moist in this region and therefore, no fire weather highlights are necessary. ..Bentley.. 11/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LAS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS... ...Synopsis... Within the last 6 hours, Critical fire weather conditions have been observed at 6 observation sites across southern California. The LAX/TPH gradient is currently -9.3 at 06Z , down from a peak of -10.5 at 03Z. Expect this gradient to maintain into the morning hours before starting to relax by late morning. Expect Elevated fire weather concerns to wane by this evening as the gradient continues to weaken. Some dry and breezy conditions are expected across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest this afternoon, but fuels remain moist in this region and therefore, no fire weather highlights are necessary. ..Bentley.. 11/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more