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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 11/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023/ ...Synopsis... A zonal mid-level pattern will lead to mostly benign fire weather concerns on Friday. Some short-term dry and breezy conditions are possible in the wake of a cold front across the Ohio Valley on Friday. However, fuels in this region are moist and therefore, fire weather concerns will be marginal. The somewhat greater, albeit still low-end, fire weather threat may exist across parts of the southern-central High Plains. A weak lee cyclone will develop in the Plains as a weak shortwave trough crosses the central Rockies. A narrow corridor of dry/breezy southerly flow may develop along the Colorado/Kansas Border. However, the spatial coverage is too limited for an Elevated area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 11/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023/ ...Synopsis... A zonal mid-level pattern will lead to mostly benign fire weather concerns on Friday. Some short-term dry and breezy conditions are possible in the wake of a cold front across the Ohio Valley on Friday. However, fuels in this region are moist and therefore, fire weather concerns will be marginal. The somewhat greater, albeit still low-end, fire weather threat may exist across parts of the southern-central High Plains. A weak lee cyclone will develop in the Plains as a weak shortwave trough crosses the central Rockies. A narrow corridor of dry/breezy southerly flow may develop along the Colorado/Kansas Border. However, the spatial coverage is too limited for an Elevated area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible Friday from southern and coastal Texas toward the northern Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... An upper low over southern Quebec will weaken as becomes an open wave across the Maritimes, with a broad area of cyclonic flow extending westward across the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, modest west/southwest flow aloft will remain from the southern Plains into the Southeast. Weaker midlevel waves will move across the Rockies, with one over NM and another over MT/WY. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be centered over the Plains, with offshore winds into the western and northern Gulf of Mexico. However, a weak surface trough will stretch roughly from far southern LA/MS into the Carolinas where another front will be moving in from the north. The presence of weak instability may yield a few lightning flashes near the northern Gulf Coast, in a zone of weak low-level warm advection, and over parts of southern and coastal TX where weak elevated instability will remain. Severe weather is unlikely in either case. ..Jewell.. 11/09/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible Friday from southern and coastal Texas toward the northern Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... An upper low over southern Quebec will weaken as becomes an open wave across the Maritimes, with a broad area of cyclonic flow extending westward across the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, modest west/southwest flow aloft will remain from the southern Plains into the Southeast. Weaker midlevel waves will move across the Rockies, with one over NM and another over MT/WY. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be centered over the Plains, with offshore winds into the western and northern Gulf of Mexico. However, a weak surface trough will stretch roughly from far southern LA/MS into the Carolinas where another front will be moving in from the north. The presence of weak instability may yield a few lightning flashes near the northern Gulf Coast, in a zone of weak low-level warm advection, and over parts of southern and coastal TX where weak elevated instability will remain. Severe weather is unlikely in either case. ..Jewell.. 11/09/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible Friday from southern and coastal Texas toward the northern Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... An upper low over southern Quebec will weaken as becomes an open wave across the Maritimes, with a broad area of cyclonic flow extending westward across the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, modest west/southwest flow aloft will remain from the southern Plains into the Southeast. Weaker midlevel waves will move across the Rockies, with one over NM and another over MT/WY. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be centered over the Plains, with offshore winds into the western and northern Gulf of Mexico. However, a weak surface trough will stretch roughly from far southern LA/MS into the Carolinas where another front will be moving in from the north. The presence of weak instability may yield a few lightning flashes near the northern Gulf Coast, in a zone of weak low-level warm advection, and over parts of southern and coastal TX where weak elevated instability will remain. Severe weather is unlikely in either case. ..Jewell.. 11/09/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible Friday from southern and coastal Texas toward the northern Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... An upper low over southern Quebec will weaken as becomes an open wave across the Maritimes, with a broad area of cyclonic flow extending westward across the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, modest west/southwest flow aloft will remain from the southern Plains into the Southeast. Weaker midlevel waves will move across the Rockies, with one over NM and another over MT/WY. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be centered over the Plains, with offshore winds into the western and northern Gulf of Mexico. However, a weak surface trough will stretch roughly from far southern LA/MS into the Carolinas where another front will be moving in from the north. The presence of weak instability may yield a few lightning flashes near the northern Gulf Coast, in a zone of weak low-level warm advection, and over parts of southern and coastal TX where weak elevated instability will remain. Severe weather is unlikely in either case. ..Jewell.. 11/09/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible Friday from southern and coastal Texas toward the northern Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... An upper low over southern Quebec will weaken as becomes an open wave across the Maritimes, with a broad area of cyclonic flow extending westward across the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, modest west/southwest flow aloft will remain from the southern Plains into the Southeast. Weaker midlevel waves will move across the Rockies, with one over NM and another over MT/WY. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be centered over the Plains, with offshore winds into the western and northern Gulf of Mexico. However, a weak surface trough will stretch roughly from far southern LA/MS into the Carolinas where another front will be moving in from the north. The presence of weak instability may yield a few lightning flashes near the northern Gulf Coast, in a zone of weak low-level warm advection, and over parts of southern and coastal TX where weak elevated instability will remain. Severe weather is unlikely in either case. ..Jewell.. 11/09/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. Latest surface observations depict dry/breezy conditions ongoing across parts of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties, with gusts upwards of 40-50 mph amid 10-15 percent RH over the wind-prone mountains and valleys. These dry/windy conditions should persist into the afternoon hours, before the winds decrease substantially during the late afternoon/early evening time frame. ..Weinman.. 11/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023/ ...Synopsis... Within the last 6 hours, Critical fire weather conditions have been observed at 6 observation sites across southern California. The LAX/TPH gradient is currently -9.3 at 06Z , down from a peak of -10.5 at 03Z. Expect this gradient to maintain into the morning hours before starting to relax by late morning. Expect Elevated fire weather concerns to wane by this evening as the gradient continues to weaken. Some dry and breezy conditions are expected across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest this afternoon, but fuels remain moist in this region and therefore, no fire weather highlights are necessary. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. Latest surface observations depict dry/breezy conditions ongoing across parts of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties, with gusts upwards of 40-50 mph amid 10-15 percent RH over the wind-prone mountains and valleys. These dry/windy conditions should persist into the afternoon hours, before the winds decrease substantially during the late afternoon/early evening time frame. ..Weinman.. 11/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023/ ...Synopsis... Within the last 6 hours, Critical fire weather conditions have been observed at 6 observation sites across southern California. The LAX/TPH gradient is currently -9.3 at 06Z , down from a peak of -10.5 at 03Z. Expect this gradient to maintain into the morning hours before starting to relax by late morning. Expect Elevated fire weather concerns to wane by this evening as the gradient continues to weaken. Some dry and breezy conditions are expected across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest this afternoon, but fuels remain moist in this region and therefore, no fire weather highlights are necessary. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. Latest surface observations depict dry/breezy conditions ongoing across parts of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties, with gusts upwards of 40-50 mph amid 10-15 percent RH over the wind-prone mountains and valleys. These dry/windy conditions should persist into the afternoon hours, before the winds decrease substantially during the late afternoon/early evening time frame. ..Weinman.. 11/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023/ ...Synopsis... Within the last 6 hours, Critical fire weather conditions have been observed at 6 observation sites across southern California. The LAX/TPH gradient is currently -9.3 at 06Z , down from a peak of -10.5 at 03Z. Expect this gradient to maintain into the morning hours before starting to relax by late morning. Expect Elevated fire weather concerns to wane by this evening as the gradient continues to weaken. Some dry and breezy conditions are expected across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest this afternoon, but fuels remain moist in this region and therefore, no fire weather highlights are necessary. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. Latest surface observations depict dry/breezy conditions ongoing across parts of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties, with gusts upwards of 40-50 mph amid 10-15 percent RH over the wind-prone mountains and valleys. These dry/windy conditions should persist into the afternoon hours, before the winds decrease substantially during the late afternoon/early evening time frame. ..Weinman.. 11/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023/ ...Synopsis... Within the last 6 hours, Critical fire weather conditions have been observed at 6 observation sites across southern California. The LAX/TPH gradient is currently -9.3 at 06Z , down from a peak of -10.5 at 03Z. Expect this gradient to maintain into the morning hours before starting to relax by late morning. Expect Elevated fire weather concerns to wane by this evening as the gradient continues to weaken. Some dry and breezy conditions are expected across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest this afternoon, but fuels remain moist in this region and therefore, no fire weather highlights are necessary. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible through tonight from the ArkLaTex into south Texas, and across southwest New Mexico. ...Synopsis... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will continue across portions of southeast OK and the ArkLaTex vicinity in a warm advection regime atop a surface cold front. Additional thunderstorms are expected further south into central and southern TX ahead of the southward-advancing cold front. A moist boundary-layer is in place ahead of the front, with dewpoints generally in the mid-60s F to near 70 F. Along with diurnal heating, this will contribute to modest instability. However, warm midlevel temperatures will limit stronger destabilization and preclude severe potential. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible across southwest NM and vicinity this evening into tonight. The western extent of the surface cold front moving south across TX will back into this area and stall, while the main upper shortwave trough develops east from the southwestern deserts. Cooling aloft will result in steepening midlevel lapse rates and weak destabilization, supporting a few lightning flashes. ..Leitman/Wendt.. 11/09/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible through tonight from the ArkLaTex into south Texas, and across southwest New Mexico. ...Synopsis... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will continue across portions of southeast OK and the ArkLaTex vicinity in a warm advection regime atop a surface cold front. Additional thunderstorms are expected further south into central and southern TX ahead of the southward-advancing cold front. A moist boundary-layer is in place ahead of the front, with dewpoints generally in the mid-60s F to near 70 F. Along with diurnal heating, this will contribute to modest instability. However, warm midlevel temperatures will limit stronger destabilization and preclude severe potential. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible across southwest NM and vicinity this evening into tonight. The western extent of the surface cold front moving south across TX will back into this area and stall, while the main upper shortwave trough develops east from the southwestern deserts. Cooling aloft will result in steepening midlevel lapse rates and weak destabilization, supporting a few lightning flashes. ..Leitman/Wendt.. 11/09/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible through tonight from the ArkLaTex into south Texas, and across southwest New Mexico. ...Synopsis... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will continue across portions of southeast OK and the ArkLaTex vicinity in a warm advection regime atop a surface cold front. Additional thunderstorms are expected further south into central and southern TX ahead of the southward-advancing cold front. A moist boundary-layer is in place ahead of the front, with dewpoints generally in the mid-60s F to near 70 F. Along with diurnal heating, this will contribute to modest instability. However, warm midlevel temperatures will limit stronger destabilization and preclude severe potential. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible across southwest NM and vicinity this evening into tonight. The western extent of the surface cold front moving south across TX will back into this area and stall, while the main upper shortwave trough develops east from the southwestern deserts. Cooling aloft will result in steepening midlevel lapse rates and weak destabilization, supporting a few lightning flashes. ..Leitman/Wendt.. 11/09/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible through tonight from the ArkLaTex into south Texas, and across southwest New Mexico. ...Synopsis... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will continue across portions of southeast OK and the ArkLaTex vicinity in a warm advection regime atop a surface cold front. Additional thunderstorms are expected further south into central and southern TX ahead of the southward-advancing cold front. A moist boundary-layer is in place ahead of the front, with dewpoints generally in the mid-60s F to near 70 F. Along with diurnal heating, this will contribute to modest instability. However, warm midlevel temperatures will limit stronger destabilization and preclude severe potential. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible across southwest NM and vicinity this evening into tonight. The western extent of the surface cold front moving south across TX will back into this area and stall, while the main upper shortwave trough develops east from the southwestern deserts. Cooling aloft will result in steepening midlevel lapse rates and weak destabilization, supporting a few lightning flashes. ..Leitman/Wendt.. 11/09/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible through tonight from the Ark-La-Tex into south Texas, and across southwest New Mexico. ...Ark-La-Tex to south TX through tonight... In the wake of a northern stream shortwave trough over the Upper Great Lakes, a surface cold front will continue to move slowly southeastward into the Ark-La-Miss and to the TX coast by the end of the period. Aloft, a weak southern stream shortwave trough will move east-northeastward from Sonora toward TX. Boundary-layer dewpoints range from the low-mid 60s in the Ark-La-Tex to the low 70s across south TX, beneath lingering steep midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km. Temperatures above the 500 mb level are relatively warm and will tend to limit the depth/magnitude of buoyancy, while lapse rates will be reduced by gradual moistening/ascent along the cold front and atop the frontal surface. Thus, a few thunderstorms will be possible through tonight along the front, but relatively weak buoyancy and vertical shear will limit the potential for severe storms. ...Elsewhere... A modest increase in low-level moisture along a backdoor front and the approach of the midlevel trough from Sonora could support isolated thunderstorms across southwest NM and vicinity from later this afternoon into early tonight. A deamplifying midlevel shortwave trough and associated cold front will progress inland over WA by early tonight. Buoyancy will be minimal along the frontal band and quite shallow/weak in the post-frontal airmass, so thunderstorm chances appear too low for an outlook area. ..Thompson/Smith.. 11/09/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible through tonight from the Ark-La-Tex into south Texas, and across southwest New Mexico. ...Ark-La-Tex to south TX through tonight... In the wake of a northern stream shortwave trough over the Upper Great Lakes, a surface cold front will continue to move slowly southeastward into the Ark-La-Miss and to the TX coast by the end of the period. Aloft, a weak southern stream shortwave trough will move east-northeastward from Sonora toward TX. Boundary-layer dewpoints range from the low-mid 60s in the Ark-La-Tex to the low 70s across south TX, beneath lingering steep midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km. Temperatures above the 500 mb level are relatively warm and will tend to limit the depth/magnitude of buoyancy, while lapse rates will be reduced by gradual moistening/ascent along the cold front and atop the frontal surface. Thus, a few thunderstorms will be possible through tonight along the front, but relatively weak buoyancy and vertical shear will limit the potential for severe storms. ...Elsewhere... A modest increase in low-level moisture along a backdoor front and the approach of the midlevel trough from Sonora could support isolated thunderstorms across southwest NM and vicinity from later this afternoon into early tonight. A deamplifying midlevel shortwave trough and associated cold front will progress inland over WA by early tonight. Buoyancy will be minimal along the frontal band and quite shallow/weak in the post-frontal airmass, so thunderstorm chances appear too low for an outlook area. ..Thompson/Smith.. 11/09/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible through tonight from the Ark-La-Tex into south Texas, and across southwest New Mexico. ...Ark-La-Tex to south TX through tonight... In the wake of a northern stream shortwave trough over the Upper Great Lakes, a surface cold front will continue to move slowly southeastward into the Ark-La-Miss and to the TX coast by the end of the period. Aloft, a weak southern stream shortwave trough will move east-northeastward from Sonora toward TX. Boundary-layer dewpoints range from the low-mid 60s in the Ark-La-Tex to the low 70s across south TX, beneath lingering steep midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km. Temperatures above the 500 mb level are relatively warm and will tend to limit the depth/magnitude of buoyancy, while lapse rates will be reduced by gradual moistening/ascent along the cold front and atop the frontal surface. Thus, a few thunderstorms will be possible through tonight along the front, but relatively weak buoyancy and vertical shear will limit the potential for severe storms. ...Elsewhere... A modest increase in low-level moisture along a backdoor front and the approach of the midlevel trough from Sonora could support isolated thunderstorms across southwest NM and vicinity from later this afternoon into early tonight. A deamplifying midlevel shortwave trough and associated cold front will progress inland over WA by early tonight. Buoyancy will be minimal along the frontal band and quite shallow/weak in the post-frontal airmass, so thunderstorm chances appear too low for an outlook area. ..Thompson/Smith.. 11/09/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible through tonight from the Ark-La-Tex into south Texas, and across southwest New Mexico. ...Ark-La-Tex to south TX through tonight... In the wake of a northern stream shortwave trough over the Upper Great Lakes, a surface cold front will continue to move slowly southeastward into the Ark-La-Miss and to the TX coast by the end of the period. Aloft, a weak southern stream shortwave trough will move east-northeastward from Sonora toward TX. Boundary-layer dewpoints range from the low-mid 60s in the Ark-La-Tex to the low 70s across south TX, beneath lingering steep midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km. Temperatures above the 500 mb level are relatively warm and will tend to limit the depth/magnitude of buoyancy, while lapse rates will be reduced by gradual moistening/ascent along the cold front and atop the frontal surface. Thus, a few thunderstorms will be possible through tonight along the front, but relatively weak buoyancy and vertical shear will limit the potential for severe storms. ...Elsewhere... A modest increase in low-level moisture along a backdoor front and the approach of the midlevel trough from Sonora could support isolated thunderstorms across southwest NM and vicinity from later this afternoon into early tonight. A deamplifying midlevel shortwave trough and associated cold front will progress inland over WA by early tonight. Buoyancy will be minimal along the frontal band and quite shallow/weak in the post-frontal airmass, so thunderstorm chances appear too low for an outlook area. ..Thompson/Smith.. 11/09/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible through tonight from the Ark-La-Tex into south Texas, and across southwest New Mexico. ...Ark-La-Tex to south TX through tonight... In the wake of a northern stream shortwave trough over the Upper Great Lakes, a surface cold front will continue to move slowly southeastward into the Ark-La-Miss and to the TX coast by the end of the period. Aloft, a weak southern stream shortwave trough will move east-northeastward from Sonora toward TX. Boundary-layer dewpoints range from the low-mid 60s in the Ark-La-Tex to the low 70s across south TX, beneath lingering steep midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km. Temperatures above the 500 mb level are relatively warm and will tend to limit the depth/magnitude of buoyancy, while lapse rates will be reduced by gradual moistening/ascent along the cold front and atop the frontal surface. Thus, a few thunderstorms will be possible through tonight along the front, but relatively weak buoyancy and vertical shear will limit the potential for severe storms. ...Elsewhere... A modest increase in low-level moisture along a backdoor front and the approach of the midlevel trough from Sonora could support isolated thunderstorms across southwest NM and vicinity from later this afternoon into early tonight. A deamplifying midlevel shortwave trough and associated cold front will progress inland over WA by early tonight. Buoyancy will be minimal along the frontal band and quite shallow/weak in the post-frontal airmass, so thunderstorm chances appear too low for an outlook area. ..Thompson/Smith.. 11/09/2023 Read more