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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... A Critical area was added for portions of southeastern Ventura and western Los Angeles Counties. Here, high-resolution guidance has come into good agreement, depicting several hours of 20+ mph sustained northeasterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 50 mph) amid 10-15 percent RH -- especially over wind-prone areas. The best overlap of the strong/gusty winds and low RH is expected during the late morning/early afternoon hours, as diurnal heating aids in boundary-layer drying. Given sufficiently dry/receptive fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 11/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected to be ongoing at the beginning of the period Thursday as Santa Ana winds are likely across Ventura and Los Angeles counties. Expect these conditions to last through the morning before potentially waning Thursday afternoon. The mid-level ridge is forecast to break down on Thursday in response to the shortwave trough moving toward the Pacific Northwest. As this occurs, high pressure in the Great Basin will weaken/move into the Plains. This should bring an end to this round of Santa Ana winds across southern California. Some windy conditions are expected Thursday in the northern Plains, but fuels are still sufficiently moist to mitigate most fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central/southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana into southern/eastern Texas on Thursday. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, an upper low will deepen as it moves from near Lake Superior into southern Quebec, with intensifying mid and high level winds across the Northeast. Behind this feature, modest southwest flow aloft will extend into the southern Plains and northern Mexico, with subtle embedded disturbances. At the surface, the primary feature of interest will be an elongated cold front which will interact with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints from the lower MS Valley into central and eastern TX. This front will push toward the TX Coast by Friday morning, with a small warm sector remaining from near Houston eastward along the northern Gulf coast at 12Z Friday. ...Southern and eastern TX into southwest AR... MUCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg should develop both north of the front in an elevated sense and ahead of it into southern TX where dewpoints will be higher. Weak warm advection atop the boundary as well as increased differential divergence near the right entrance region of the intensifying upper jet should support scattered convection centered over the Arklatex during the day. Temperatures aloft will not be particularly cool, suggesting only non-severe storms. To the south into TX and ahead of the cold front, heating will lead to surface-based parcels and isolated storms. Low-level winds will remain weak, and temperatures aloft relatively warm. As such, severe storms are not anticipated. Elsewhere, a strong cold front will approach the coastal Pacific Northwest late in the day, and minimal CAPE values could support isolated lightning flashes with shallow convection along the WA Coast after 03Z. ..Jewell.. 11/08/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central/southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana into southern/eastern Texas on Thursday. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, an upper low will deepen as it moves from near Lake Superior into southern Quebec, with intensifying mid and high level winds across the Northeast. Behind this feature, modest southwest flow aloft will extend into the southern Plains and northern Mexico, with subtle embedded disturbances. At the surface, the primary feature of interest will be an elongated cold front which will interact with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints from the lower MS Valley into central and eastern TX. This front will push toward the TX Coast by Friday morning, with a small warm sector remaining from near Houston eastward along the northern Gulf coast at 12Z Friday. ...Southern and eastern TX into southwest AR... MUCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg should develop both north of the front in an elevated sense and ahead of it into southern TX where dewpoints will be higher. Weak warm advection atop the boundary as well as increased differential divergence near the right entrance region of the intensifying upper jet should support scattered convection centered over the Arklatex during the day. Temperatures aloft will not be particularly cool, suggesting only non-severe storms. To the south into TX and ahead of the cold front, heating will lead to surface-based parcels and isolated storms. Low-level winds will remain weak, and temperatures aloft relatively warm. As such, severe storms are not anticipated. Elsewhere, a strong cold front will approach the coastal Pacific Northwest late in the day, and minimal CAPE values could support isolated lightning flashes with shallow convection along the WA Coast after 03Z. ..Jewell.. 11/08/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central/southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana into southern/eastern Texas on Thursday. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, an upper low will deepen as it moves from near Lake Superior into southern Quebec, with intensifying mid and high level winds across the Northeast. Behind this feature, modest southwest flow aloft will extend into the southern Plains and northern Mexico, with subtle embedded disturbances. At the surface, the primary feature of interest will be an elongated cold front which will interact with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints from the lower MS Valley into central and eastern TX. This front will push toward the TX Coast by Friday morning, with a small warm sector remaining from near Houston eastward along the northern Gulf coast at 12Z Friday. ...Southern and eastern TX into southwest AR... MUCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg should develop both north of the front in an elevated sense and ahead of it into southern TX where dewpoints will be higher. Weak warm advection atop the boundary as well as increased differential divergence near the right entrance region of the intensifying upper jet should support scattered convection centered over the Arklatex during the day. Temperatures aloft will not be particularly cool, suggesting only non-severe storms. To the south into TX and ahead of the cold front, heating will lead to surface-based parcels and isolated storms. Low-level winds will remain weak, and temperatures aloft relatively warm. As such, severe storms are not anticipated. Elsewhere, a strong cold front will approach the coastal Pacific Northwest late in the day, and minimal CAPE values could support isolated lightning flashes with shallow convection along the WA Coast after 03Z. ..Jewell.. 11/08/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central/southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana into southern/eastern Texas on Thursday. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, an upper low will deepen as it moves from near Lake Superior into southern Quebec, with intensifying mid and high level winds across the Northeast. Behind this feature, modest southwest flow aloft will extend into the southern Plains and northern Mexico, with subtle embedded disturbances. At the surface, the primary feature of interest will be an elongated cold front which will interact with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints from the lower MS Valley into central and eastern TX. This front will push toward the TX Coast by Friday morning, with a small warm sector remaining from near Houston eastward along the northern Gulf coast at 12Z Friday. ...Southern and eastern TX into southwest AR... MUCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg should develop both north of the front in an elevated sense and ahead of it into southern TX where dewpoints will be higher. Weak warm advection atop the boundary as well as increased differential divergence near the right entrance region of the intensifying upper jet should support scattered convection centered over the Arklatex during the day. Temperatures aloft will not be particularly cool, suggesting only non-severe storms. To the south into TX and ahead of the cold front, heating will lead to surface-based parcels and isolated storms. Low-level winds will remain weak, and temperatures aloft relatively warm. As such, severe storms are not anticipated. Elsewhere, a strong cold front will approach the coastal Pacific Northwest late in the day, and minimal CAPE values could support isolated lightning flashes with shallow convection along the WA Coast after 03Z. ..Jewell.. 11/08/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central/southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana into southern/eastern Texas on Thursday. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, an upper low will deepen as it moves from near Lake Superior into southern Quebec, with intensifying mid and high level winds across the Northeast. Behind this feature, modest southwest flow aloft will extend into the southern Plains and northern Mexico, with subtle embedded disturbances. At the surface, the primary feature of interest will be an elongated cold front which will interact with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints from the lower MS Valley into central and eastern TX. This front will push toward the TX Coast by Friday morning, with a small warm sector remaining from near Houston eastward along the northern Gulf coast at 12Z Friday. ...Southern and eastern TX into southwest AR... MUCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg should develop both north of the front in an elevated sense and ahead of it into southern TX where dewpoints will be higher. Weak warm advection atop the boundary as well as increased differential divergence near the right entrance region of the intensifying upper jet should support scattered convection centered over the Arklatex during the day. Temperatures aloft will not be particularly cool, suggesting only non-severe storms. To the south into TX and ahead of the cold front, heating will lead to surface-based parcels and isolated storms. Low-level winds will remain weak, and temperatures aloft relatively warm. As such, severe storms are not anticipated. Elsewhere, a strong cold front will approach the coastal Pacific Northwest late in the day, and minimal CAPE values could support isolated lightning flashes with shallow convection along the WA Coast after 03Z. ..Jewell.. 11/08/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A strong mid-level jet max is tracking east-northeastward across the central Plains. An associated deepening surface low will move across IL and into the Great Lakes region. Low-level warm advection to the northeast of the surface low will lead to scattered precipitation and a few thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Organized severe storms are not expected in this region. Other isolated showers are expected this evening over parts of TX as a weak subtropical system begins to interact with a quasi-stationary boundary. A few lightning flashes are possible, but the overall risk appears to be less than 10%. ..Hart/Wendt.. 11/08/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A strong mid-level jet max is tracking east-northeastward across the central Plains. An associated deepening surface low will move across IL and into the Great Lakes region. Low-level warm advection to the northeast of the surface low will lead to scattered precipitation and a few thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Organized severe storms are not expected in this region. Other isolated showers are expected this evening over parts of TX as a weak subtropical system begins to interact with a quasi-stationary boundary. A few lightning flashes are possible, but the overall risk appears to be less than 10%. ..Hart/Wendt.. 11/08/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A strong mid-level jet max is tracking east-northeastward across the central Plains. An associated deepening surface low will move across IL and into the Great Lakes region. Low-level warm advection to the northeast of the surface low will lead to scattered precipitation and a few thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Organized severe storms are not expected in this region. Other isolated showers are expected this evening over parts of TX as a weak subtropical system begins to interact with a quasi-stationary boundary. A few lightning flashes are possible, but the overall risk appears to be less than 10%. ..Hart/Wendt.. 11/08/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A strong mid-level jet max is tracking east-northeastward across the central Plains. An associated deepening surface low will move across IL and into the Great Lakes region. Low-level warm advection to the northeast of the surface low will lead to scattered precipitation and a few thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Organized severe storms are not expected in this region. Other isolated showers are expected this evening over parts of TX as a weak subtropical system begins to interact with a quasi-stationary boundary. A few lightning flashes are possible, but the overall risk appears to be less than 10%. ..Hart/Wendt.. 11/08/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A strong mid-level jet max is tracking east-northeastward across the central Plains. An associated deepening surface low will move across IL and into the Great Lakes region. Low-level warm advection to the northeast of the surface low will lead to scattered precipitation and a few thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Organized severe storms are not expected in this region. Other isolated showers are expected this evening over parts of TX as a weak subtropical system begins to interact with a quasi-stationary boundary. A few lightning flashes are possible, but the overall risk appears to be less than 10%. ..Hart/Wendt.. 11/08/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0954 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 11/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves east across the Southwest, surface high pressure is arriving in its wake. This surface high is over Oregon this morning and will settle into the Great Basin by this afternoon/evening. This will set up offshore Santa Ana winds across southern California during the day today with some assistance from surface heating and deeper mixing bringing stronger winds to the surface. Therefore, as the boundary layer cools, expect some weakening of winds. However, as high pressure reintensifies across the Great Basin amid cooling overnight temperatures, expect the gradient to intensify again Thursday morning with strong offshore flow developing, particularly in Ventura county. Some Elevated to locally critical conditions may be possible across parts of the Southwest today. However, these conditions appear somewhat transient and may not last long enough to warrant an Elevated delineation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0954 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 11/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves east across the Southwest, surface high pressure is arriving in its wake. This surface high is over Oregon this morning and will settle into the Great Basin by this afternoon/evening. This will set up offshore Santa Ana winds across southern California during the day today with some assistance from surface heating and deeper mixing bringing stronger winds to the surface. Therefore, as the boundary layer cools, expect some weakening of winds. However, as high pressure reintensifies across the Great Basin amid cooling overnight temperatures, expect the gradient to intensify again Thursday morning with strong offshore flow developing, particularly in Ventura county. Some Elevated to locally critical conditions may be possible across parts of the Southwest today. However, these conditions appear somewhat transient and may not last long enough to warrant an Elevated delineation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0954 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 11/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves east across the Southwest, surface high pressure is arriving in its wake. This surface high is over Oregon this morning and will settle into the Great Basin by this afternoon/evening. This will set up offshore Santa Ana winds across southern California during the day today with some assistance from surface heating and deeper mixing bringing stronger winds to the surface. Therefore, as the boundary layer cools, expect some weakening of winds. However, as high pressure reintensifies across the Great Basin amid cooling overnight temperatures, expect the gradient to intensify again Thursday morning with strong offshore flow developing, particularly in Ventura county. Some Elevated to locally critical conditions may be possible across parts of the Southwest today. However, these conditions appear somewhat transient and may not last long enough to warrant an Elevated delineation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0954 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 11/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves east across the Southwest, surface high pressure is arriving in its wake. This surface high is over Oregon this morning and will settle into the Great Basin by this afternoon/evening. This will set up offshore Santa Ana winds across southern California during the day today with some assistance from surface heating and deeper mixing bringing stronger winds to the surface. Therefore, as the boundary layer cools, expect some weakening of winds. However, as high pressure reintensifies across the Great Basin amid cooling overnight temperatures, expect the gradient to intensify again Thursday morning with strong offshore flow developing, particularly in Ventura county. Some Elevated to locally critical conditions may be possible across parts of the Southwest today. However, these conditions appear somewhat transient and may not last long enough to warrant an Elevated delineation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0954 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 11/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves east across the Southwest, surface high pressure is arriving in its wake. This surface high is over Oregon this morning and will settle into the Great Basin by this afternoon/evening. This will set up offshore Santa Ana winds across southern California during the day today with some assistance from surface heating and deeper mixing bringing stronger winds to the surface. Therefore, as the boundary layer cools, expect some weakening of winds. However, as high pressure reintensifies across the Great Basin amid cooling overnight temperatures, expect the gradient to intensify again Thursday morning with strong offshore flow developing, particularly in Ventura county. Some Elevated to locally critical conditions may be possible across parts of the Southwest today. However, these conditions appear somewhat transient and may not last long enough to warrant an Elevated delineation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Great Lakes area through tonight... An embedded shortwave trough over the central High Plains this morning will move quickly east-northeastward toward the Great Lakes by tonight, while phasing with a deepening trough that will be located over the MN Arrowhead by Thursday morning. An associated surface cyclone will translate east-northeastward from northeast KS this morning to northern MO/IL this afternoon and Lower MI tonight. Boundary-layer dewpoints have increased to near 60 F in the warm sector of the cyclone in MO, and this moisture will spread northeastward into IL/IN through early tonight. However, buoyancy is likely to remain weak in the capped surface warm sector, and the stronger forcing for ascent will be in the warm advection zone from southern WI across Lower MI. MUCAPE of 250-500 J/kg rooted near 850 mb will support continued elevated thunderstorm development through the day and into tonight. Some sub-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms from southeast WI into Lower MI given the long hodographs aloft with the weak buoyancy, but the threat for hail greater than 1 inch in diameter should remain too low for an outlook area. ...Ark-La-Tex to central TX overnight... Gradual low-level moistening/destabilization will occur across TX/southeast OK/AR in advance of a cold front that will reach central AR to central TX by the end of the period. There will be a small chance for elevated convection along/just north of the front 09-12z. However, lingering convective inhibition should delay any storm development until the day 2 period, and relatively warm temperatures above 500 mb will limit buoyancy depth and charge separation potential with any deeper convection that does form prior to 12z. ..Thompson.. 11/08/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Great Lakes area through tonight... An embedded shortwave trough over the central High Plains this morning will move quickly east-northeastward toward the Great Lakes by tonight, while phasing with a deepening trough that will be located over the MN Arrowhead by Thursday morning. An associated surface cyclone will translate east-northeastward from northeast KS this morning to northern MO/IL this afternoon and Lower MI tonight. Boundary-layer dewpoints have increased to near 60 F in the warm sector of the cyclone in MO, and this moisture will spread northeastward into IL/IN through early tonight. However, buoyancy is likely to remain weak in the capped surface warm sector, and the stronger forcing for ascent will be in the warm advection zone from southern WI across Lower MI. MUCAPE of 250-500 J/kg rooted near 850 mb will support continued elevated thunderstorm development through the day and into tonight. Some sub-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms from southeast WI into Lower MI given the long hodographs aloft with the weak buoyancy, but the threat for hail greater than 1 inch in diameter should remain too low for an outlook area. ...Ark-La-Tex to central TX overnight... Gradual low-level moistening/destabilization will occur across TX/southeast OK/AR in advance of a cold front that will reach central AR to central TX by the end of the period. There will be a small chance for elevated convection along/just north of the front 09-12z. However, lingering convective inhibition should delay any storm development until the day 2 period, and relatively warm temperatures above 500 mb will limit buoyancy depth and charge separation potential with any deeper convection that does form prior to 12z. ..Thompson.. 11/08/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Great Lakes area through tonight... An embedded shortwave trough over the central High Plains this morning will move quickly east-northeastward toward the Great Lakes by tonight, while phasing with a deepening trough that will be located over the MN Arrowhead by Thursday morning. An associated surface cyclone will translate east-northeastward from northeast KS this morning to northern MO/IL this afternoon and Lower MI tonight. Boundary-layer dewpoints have increased to near 60 F in the warm sector of the cyclone in MO, and this moisture will spread northeastward into IL/IN through early tonight. However, buoyancy is likely to remain weak in the capped surface warm sector, and the stronger forcing for ascent will be in the warm advection zone from southern WI across Lower MI. MUCAPE of 250-500 J/kg rooted near 850 mb will support continued elevated thunderstorm development through the day and into tonight. Some sub-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms from southeast WI into Lower MI given the long hodographs aloft with the weak buoyancy, but the threat for hail greater than 1 inch in diameter should remain too low for an outlook area. ...Ark-La-Tex to central TX overnight... Gradual low-level moistening/destabilization will occur across TX/southeast OK/AR in advance of a cold front that will reach central AR to central TX by the end of the period. There will be a small chance for elevated convection along/just north of the front 09-12z. However, lingering convective inhibition should delay any storm development until the day 2 period, and relatively warm temperatures above 500 mb will limit buoyancy depth and charge separation potential with any deeper convection that does form prior to 12z. ..Thompson.. 11/08/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Great Lakes area through tonight... An embedded shortwave trough over the central High Plains this morning will move quickly east-northeastward toward the Great Lakes by tonight, while phasing with a deepening trough that will be located over the MN Arrowhead by Thursday morning. An associated surface cyclone will translate east-northeastward from northeast KS this morning to northern MO/IL this afternoon and Lower MI tonight. Boundary-layer dewpoints have increased to near 60 F in the warm sector of the cyclone in MO, and this moisture will spread northeastward into IL/IN through early tonight. However, buoyancy is likely to remain weak in the capped surface warm sector, and the stronger forcing for ascent will be in the warm advection zone from southern WI across Lower MI. MUCAPE of 250-500 J/kg rooted near 850 mb will support continued elevated thunderstorm development through the day and into tonight. Some sub-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms from southeast WI into Lower MI given the long hodographs aloft with the weak buoyancy, but the threat for hail greater than 1 inch in diameter should remain too low for an outlook area. ...Ark-La-Tex to central TX overnight... Gradual low-level moistening/destabilization will occur across TX/southeast OK/AR in advance of a cold front that will reach central AR to central TX by the end of the period. There will be a small chance for elevated convection along/just north of the front 09-12z. However, lingering convective inhibition should delay any storm development until the day 2 period, and relatively warm temperatures above 500 mb will limit buoyancy depth and charge separation potential with any deeper convection that does form prior to 12z. ..Thompson.. 11/08/2023 Read more