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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... A dry, continental airmass will envelop much of the CONUS in the wake of a cold frontal passage into the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. Stable conditions will prevail given a dearth of boundary-layer moisture and thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... A dry, continental airmass will envelop much of the CONUS in the wake of a cold frontal passage into the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. Stable conditions will prevail given a dearth of boundary-layer moisture and thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... A dry, continental airmass will envelop much of the CONUS in the wake of a cold frontal passage into the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. Stable conditions will prevail given a dearth of boundary-layer moisture and thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... A dry, continental airmass will envelop much of the CONUS in the wake of a cold frontal passage into the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. Stable conditions will prevail given a dearth of boundary-layer moisture and thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... A dry, continental airmass will envelop much of the CONUS in the wake of a cold frontal passage into the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. Stable conditions will prevail given a dearth of boundary-layer moisture and thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A midlevel low currently centered over the Ohio Valley will track eastward into the western Atlantic ocean as it devolves into an open wave through the period. A related cold front extending south-southwestward along the Gulf Stream into central Florida will continue southeastward across southern Florida into this evening. Along/immediately ahead of the southeastward-moving front, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints) should support isolated thunderstorm development across central/southern Florida despite poor midlevel lapse rates and dry air aloft. Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears low owing to veered surface winds/weak frontal convergence, weak instability, and modest deep-layer shear. ..Weinman/Hart.. 01/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A midlevel low currently centered over the Ohio Valley will track eastward into the western Atlantic ocean as it devolves into an open wave through the period. A related cold front extending south-southwestward along the Gulf Stream into central Florida will continue southeastward across southern Florida into this evening. Along/immediately ahead of the southeastward-moving front, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints) should support isolated thunderstorm development across central/southern Florida despite poor midlevel lapse rates and dry air aloft. Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears low owing to veered surface winds/weak frontal convergence, weak instability, and modest deep-layer shear. ..Weinman/Hart.. 01/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A midlevel low currently centered over the Ohio Valley will track eastward into the western Atlantic ocean as it devolves into an open wave through the period. A related cold front extending south-southwestward along the Gulf Stream into central Florida will continue southeastward across southern Florida into this evening. Along/immediately ahead of the southeastward-moving front, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints) should support isolated thunderstorm development across central/southern Florida despite poor midlevel lapse rates and dry air aloft. Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears low owing to veered surface winds/weak frontal convergence, weak instability, and modest deep-layer shear. ..Weinman/Hart.. 01/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A midlevel low currently centered over the Ohio Valley will track eastward into the western Atlantic ocean as it devolves into an open wave through the period. A related cold front extending south-southwestward along the Gulf Stream into central Florida will continue southeastward across southern Florida into this evening. Along/immediately ahead of the southeastward-moving front, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints) should support isolated thunderstorm development across central/southern Florida despite poor midlevel lapse rates and dry air aloft. Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears low owing to veered surface winds/weak frontal convergence, weak instability, and modest deep-layer shear. ..Weinman/Hart.. 01/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A midlevel low currently centered over the Ohio Valley will track eastward into the western Atlantic ocean as it devolves into an open wave through the period. A related cold front extending south-southwestward along the Gulf Stream into central Florida will continue southeastward across southern Florida into this evening. Along/immediately ahead of the southeastward-moving front, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints) should support isolated thunderstorm development across central/southern Florida despite poor midlevel lapse rates and dry air aloft. Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears low owing to veered surface winds/weak frontal convergence, weak instability, and modest deep-layer shear. ..Weinman/Hart.. 01/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A midlevel low currently centered over the Ohio Valley will track eastward into the western Atlantic ocean as it devolves into an open wave through the period. A related cold front extending south-southwestward along the Gulf Stream into central Florida will continue southeastward across southern Florida into this evening. Along/immediately ahead of the southeastward-moving front, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints) should support isolated thunderstorm development across central/southern Florida despite poor midlevel lapse rates and dry air aloft. Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears low owing to veered surface winds/weak frontal convergence, weak instability, and modest deep-layer shear. ..Weinman/Hart.. 01/28/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0906 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (below) remains on track with no changes needed. Morning observations and latest forecast guidance continue to suggest low potential for fire weather concerns across the country. ..Moore.. 01/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will build into the West and extend into the High Plains region today. Surface high pressure will extend from the Northwest into the southern Plains. With some downslope flow, temperatures in the southern High Plains will warm. Given weak winds, marginal RH, and poorly receptive fuels, fire weather concerns are not expected within the region. Similarly, modest dry offshore winds are anticipated in southern California. However, poor fuels receptiveness will mitigate fire weather risk here as well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0906 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (below) remains on track with no changes needed. Morning observations and latest forecast guidance continue to suggest low potential for fire weather concerns across the country. ..Moore.. 01/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will build into the West and extend into the High Plains region today. Surface high pressure will extend from the Northwest into the southern Plains. With some downslope flow, temperatures in the southern High Plains will warm. Given weak winds, marginal RH, and poorly receptive fuels, fire weather concerns are not expected within the region. Similarly, modest dry offshore winds are anticipated in southern California. However, poor fuels receptiveness will mitigate fire weather risk here as well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0906 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (below) remains on track with no changes needed. Morning observations and latest forecast guidance continue to suggest low potential for fire weather concerns across the country. ..Moore.. 01/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will build into the West and extend into the High Plains region today. Surface high pressure will extend from the Northwest into the southern Plains. With some downslope flow, temperatures in the southern High Plains will warm. Given weak winds, marginal RH, and poorly receptive fuels, fire weather concerns are not expected within the region. Similarly, modest dry offshore winds are anticipated in southern California. However, poor fuels receptiveness will mitigate fire weather risk here as well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0906 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (below) remains on track with no changes needed. Morning observations and latest forecast guidance continue to suggest low potential for fire weather concerns across the country. ..Moore.. 01/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will build into the West and extend into the High Plains region today. Surface high pressure will extend from the Northwest into the southern Plains. With some downslope flow, temperatures in the southern High Plains will warm. Given weak winds, marginal RH, and poorly receptive fuels, fire weather concerns are not expected within the region. Similarly, modest dry offshore winds are anticipated in southern California. However, poor fuels receptiveness will mitigate fire weather risk here as well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0906 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (below) remains on track with no changes needed. Morning observations and latest forecast guidance continue to suggest low potential for fire weather concerns across the country. ..Moore.. 01/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will build into the West and extend into the High Plains region today. Surface high pressure will extend from the Northwest into the southern Plains. With some downslope flow, temperatures in the southern High Plains will warm. Given weak winds, marginal RH, and poorly receptive fuels, fire weather concerns are not expected within the region. Similarly, modest dry offshore winds are anticipated in southern California. However, poor fuels receptiveness will mitigate fire weather risk here as well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0906 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (below) remains on track with no changes needed. Morning observations and latest forecast guidance continue to suggest low potential for fire weather concerns across the country. ..Moore.. 01/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will build into the West and extend into the High Plains region today. Surface high pressure will extend from the Northwest into the southern Plains. With some downslope flow, temperatures in the southern High Plains will warm. Given weak winds, marginal RH, and poorly receptive fuels, fire weather concerns are not expected within the region. Similarly, modest dry offshore winds are anticipated in southern California. However, poor fuels receptiveness will mitigate fire weather risk here as well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a progressive, high-amplitude pattern will continue. A well-developed cyclone, with multiple centers or core vorticity maxima apparent in moisture-channel imagery, covered much of IN and neighboring states, with a trough southwestward across the Arklatex region. The cyclone will devolve to an open wave through the period, but with a strong synoptic trough regardless. By 00Z, the trough should extend from the remnant 500-mb low over PA southwestward across AL. By 12Z tomorrow, the open trough will be over New England, then just offshore of the remainder of the Atlantic Coast from the Mid Atlantic to northeastern FL. At 11Z, surface analysis showed a low well inland near PKB, with occluded front to a triple-point low near the eastern part of the NC/VA border, and cold front to central SC, southeastern GA, northwestern FL, and the northeastern to south-central Gulf. By 00Z, the triple-point low should be offshore from ACY, with cold front southwestward over Atlantic waters to south FL. The front should sweep off the remainder of the FL Peninsula soon thereafter. In the meantime, the Carolinas-area thunderstorm threat has shifted offshore. Isolated thunderstorms may develop in weak but sufficient moisture and lapse rates along/ahead of the front over portions of FL. Isolated thunder also may occur over the upper Ohio Valley region, with about 100-300 J/kg elevated MUCAPE, in the cold-core region of the midlevel circulation. The shear/instability parameter space will be too weak to support an organized severe threat. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 01/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a progressive, high-amplitude pattern will continue. A well-developed cyclone, with multiple centers or core vorticity maxima apparent in moisture-channel imagery, covered much of IN and neighboring states, with a trough southwestward across the Arklatex region. The cyclone will devolve to an open wave through the period, but with a strong synoptic trough regardless. By 00Z, the trough should extend from the remnant 500-mb low over PA southwestward across AL. By 12Z tomorrow, the open trough will be over New England, then just offshore of the remainder of the Atlantic Coast from the Mid Atlantic to northeastern FL. At 11Z, surface analysis showed a low well inland near PKB, with occluded front to a triple-point low near the eastern part of the NC/VA border, and cold front to central SC, southeastern GA, northwestern FL, and the northeastern to south-central Gulf. By 00Z, the triple-point low should be offshore from ACY, with cold front southwestward over Atlantic waters to south FL. The front should sweep off the remainder of the FL Peninsula soon thereafter. In the meantime, the Carolinas-area thunderstorm threat has shifted offshore. Isolated thunderstorms may develop in weak but sufficient moisture and lapse rates along/ahead of the front over portions of FL. Isolated thunder also may occur over the upper Ohio Valley region, with about 100-300 J/kg elevated MUCAPE, in the cold-core region of the midlevel circulation. The shear/instability parameter space will be too weak to support an organized severe threat. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 01/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a progressive, high-amplitude pattern will continue. A well-developed cyclone, with multiple centers or core vorticity maxima apparent in moisture-channel imagery, covered much of IN and neighboring states, with a trough southwestward across the Arklatex region. The cyclone will devolve to an open wave through the period, but with a strong synoptic trough regardless. By 00Z, the trough should extend from the remnant 500-mb low over PA southwestward across AL. By 12Z tomorrow, the open trough will be over New England, then just offshore of the remainder of the Atlantic Coast from the Mid Atlantic to northeastern FL. At 11Z, surface analysis showed a low well inland near PKB, with occluded front to a triple-point low near the eastern part of the NC/VA border, and cold front to central SC, southeastern GA, northwestern FL, and the northeastern to south-central Gulf. By 00Z, the triple-point low should be offshore from ACY, with cold front southwestward over Atlantic waters to south FL. The front should sweep off the remainder of the FL Peninsula soon thereafter. In the meantime, the Carolinas-area thunderstorm threat has shifted offshore. Isolated thunderstorms may develop in weak but sufficient moisture and lapse rates along/ahead of the front over portions of FL. Isolated thunder also may occur over the upper Ohio Valley region, with about 100-300 J/kg elevated MUCAPE, in the cold-core region of the midlevel circulation. The shear/instability parameter space will be too weak to support an organized severe threat. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 01/28/2024 Read more