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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Friday across the country. The surface low currently deepening over the northern High Plains is forecast to weaken through the day Friday as it lifts to the east/northeast into eastern Canada. An attendant cold front will continue to push east with the surface low (reaching from the Great Lakes to southeast TX by late Friday), but the weakening of the low, combined with surface pressure rises across the central Plains, will result in muted gradient winds compared to today/Thursday. Additionally, cooler temperatures should overspread much of the Plains where fuels are somewhat dry, limiting diurnal RH reductions. Consequently, fire weather concerns are expected to be fairly limited. ..Moore.. 11/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Friday across the country. The surface low currently deepening over the northern High Plains is forecast to weaken through the day Friday as it lifts to the east/northeast into eastern Canada. An attendant cold front will continue to push east with the surface low (reaching from the Great Lakes to southeast TX by late Friday), but the weakening of the low, combined with surface pressure rises across the central Plains, will result in muted gradient winds compared to today/Thursday. Additionally, cooler temperatures should overspread much of the Plains where fuels are somewhat dry, limiting diurnal RH reductions. Consequently, fire weather concerns are expected to be fairly limited. ..Moore.. 11/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible from Friday into Friday night along the Atlantic Seaboard (from North Carolina to Florida), in the southern Appalachians, and near the coast of California. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level low, just off the coast of northeastern Florida, is forecast to move east-northeastward across the western Atlantic on Friday. In the wake of the system, isolated thunderstorms will be possible in eastern Florida during the day. Further to the northwest, an upper-level trough will move eastward from the Mississippi Valley into the southern and central Appalachians Friday afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms, associated with surface heating, topographic forcing and large-scale ascent, may develop in parts of the southern Appalachians ahead of the trough. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop along and near the coast of California as an upper-level trough approaches the West Coast. Instability in these three areas will likely be too weak for a severe threat. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop over the remainder of the continental United States. ..Broyles.. 11/16/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible from Friday into Friday night along the Atlantic Seaboard (from North Carolina to Florida), in the southern Appalachians, and near the coast of California. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level low, just off the coast of northeastern Florida, is forecast to move east-northeastward across the western Atlantic on Friday. In the wake of the system, isolated thunderstorms will be possible in eastern Florida during the day. Further to the northwest, an upper-level trough will move eastward from the Mississippi Valley into the southern and central Appalachians Friday afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms, associated with surface heating, topographic forcing and large-scale ascent, may develop in parts of the southern Appalachians ahead of the trough. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop along and near the coast of California as an upper-level trough approaches the West Coast. Instability in these three areas will likely be too weak for a severe threat. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop over the remainder of the continental United States. ..Broyles.. 11/16/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible from Friday into Friday night along the Atlantic Seaboard (from North Carolina to Florida), in the southern Appalachians, and near the coast of California. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level low, just off the coast of northeastern Florida, is forecast to move east-northeastward across the western Atlantic on Friday. In the wake of the system, isolated thunderstorms will be possible in eastern Florida during the day. Further to the northwest, an upper-level trough will move eastward from the Mississippi Valley into the southern and central Appalachians Friday afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms, associated with surface heating, topographic forcing and large-scale ascent, may develop in parts of the southern Appalachians ahead of the trough. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop along and near the coast of California as an upper-level trough approaches the West Coast. Instability in these three areas will likely be too weak for a severe threat. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop over the remainder of the continental United States. ..Broyles.. 11/16/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible from Friday into Friday night along the Atlantic Seaboard (from North Carolina to Florida), in the southern Appalachians, and near the coast of California. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level low, just off the coast of northeastern Florida, is forecast to move east-northeastward across the western Atlantic on Friday. In the wake of the system, isolated thunderstorms will be possible in eastern Florida during the day. Further to the northwest, an upper-level trough will move eastward from the Mississippi Valley into the southern and central Appalachians Friday afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms, associated with surface heating, topographic forcing and large-scale ascent, may develop in parts of the southern Appalachians ahead of the trough. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop along and near the coast of California as an upper-level trough approaches the West Coast. Instability in these three areas will likely be too weak for a severe threat. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop over the remainder of the continental United States. ..Broyles.. 11/16/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible from Friday into Friday night along the Atlantic Seaboard (from North Carolina to Florida), in the southern Appalachians, and near the coast of California. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level low, just off the coast of northeastern Florida, is forecast to move east-northeastward across the western Atlantic on Friday. In the wake of the system, isolated thunderstorms will be possible in eastern Florida during the day. Further to the northwest, an upper-level trough will move eastward from the Mississippi Valley into the southern and central Appalachians Friday afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms, associated with surface heating, topographic forcing and large-scale ascent, may develop in parts of the southern Appalachians ahead of the trough. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop along and near the coast of California as an upper-level trough approaches the West Coast. Instability in these three areas will likely be too weak for a severe threat. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop over the remainder of the continental United States. ..Broyles.. 11/16/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will be limited today across the country. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper shortwave trough traversing the U.S./Canadian border. Ahead of this feature, steady surface pressure falls have been observed over the past 12 hours across eastern MT and the Dakotas with a surface low beginning to organize over the region. This low will continue to deepen and drift east through the day as an attendant cold front (already noted over northeast MT/northwest ND) sweeps to the south/southeast. Breezy conditions are expected ahead of and behind the front with winds gusting as high as 25-35 mph. However, the combination of moisture advection ahead of the front and an influx of cooler temperatures behind the front should modulate afternoon RH reductions. Localized elevated conditions are possible in the immediate lee of the central to southern Rockies (mainly from southeast CO to northeast NM), where pre-frontal westerly downslope flow may support areas of 15-20 mph winds and RH values in the 20-30% range. Such conditions are expected to be too transient and localized to warrant highlights. ..Moore.. 11/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will be limited today across the country. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper shortwave trough traversing the U.S./Canadian border. Ahead of this feature, steady surface pressure falls have been observed over the past 12 hours across eastern MT and the Dakotas with a surface low beginning to organize over the region. This low will continue to deepen and drift east through the day as an attendant cold front (already noted over northeast MT/northwest ND) sweeps to the south/southeast. Breezy conditions are expected ahead of and behind the front with winds gusting as high as 25-35 mph. However, the combination of moisture advection ahead of the front and an influx of cooler temperatures behind the front should modulate afternoon RH reductions. Localized elevated conditions are possible in the immediate lee of the central to southern Rockies (mainly from southeast CO to northeast NM), where pre-frontal westerly downslope flow may support areas of 15-20 mph winds and RH values in the 20-30% range. Such conditions are expected to be too transient and localized to warrant highlights. ..Moore.. 11/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will be limited today across the country. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper shortwave trough traversing the U.S./Canadian border. Ahead of this feature, steady surface pressure falls have been observed over the past 12 hours across eastern MT and the Dakotas with a surface low beginning to organize over the region. This low will continue to deepen and drift east through the day as an attendant cold front (already noted over northeast MT/northwest ND) sweeps to the south/southeast. Breezy conditions are expected ahead of and behind the front with winds gusting as high as 25-35 mph. However, the combination of moisture advection ahead of the front and an influx of cooler temperatures behind the front should modulate afternoon RH reductions. Localized elevated conditions are possible in the immediate lee of the central to southern Rockies (mainly from southeast CO to northeast NM), where pre-frontal westerly downslope flow may support areas of 15-20 mph winds and RH values in the 20-30% range. Such conditions are expected to be too transient and localized to warrant highlights. ..Moore.. 11/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will be limited today across the country. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper shortwave trough traversing the U.S./Canadian border. Ahead of this feature, steady surface pressure falls have been observed over the past 12 hours across eastern MT and the Dakotas with a surface low beginning to organize over the region. This low will continue to deepen and drift east through the day as an attendant cold front (already noted over northeast MT/northwest ND) sweeps to the south/southeast. Breezy conditions are expected ahead of and behind the front with winds gusting as high as 25-35 mph. However, the combination of moisture advection ahead of the front and an influx of cooler temperatures behind the front should modulate afternoon RH reductions. Localized elevated conditions are possible in the immediate lee of the central to southern Rockies (mainly from southeast CO to northeast NM), where pre-frontal westerly downslope flow may support areas of 15-20 mph winds and RH values in the 20-30% range. Such conditions are expected to be too transient and localized to warrant highlights. ..Moore.. 11/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will be limited today across the country. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper shortwave trough traversing the U.S./Canadian border. Ahead of this feature, steady surface pressure falls have been observed over the past 12 hours across eastern MT and the Dakotas with a surface low beginning to organize over the region. This low will continue to deepen and drift east through the day as an attendant cold front (already noted over northeast MT/northwest ND) sweeps to the south/southeast. Breezy conditions are expected ahead of and behind the front with winds gusting as high as 25-35 mph. However, the combination of moisture advection ahead of the front and an influx of cooler temperatures behind the front should modulate afternoon RH reductions. Localized elevated conditions are possible in the immediate lee of the central to southern Rockies (mainly from southeast CO to northeast NM), where pre-frontal westerly downslope flow may support areas of 15-20 mph winds and RH values in the 20-30% range. Such conditions are expected to be too transient and localized to warrant highlights. ..Moore.. 11/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may threaten the southern and eastern Florida Peninsula, but the bulk of the activity is expected to remain offshore. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong upper trough will move eastward across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley today, with an associated cold front interacting with a relatively stable air mass. This will be due in part to dry trajectories out of a strong Mid Atlantic surface high. This high will also be responsible for a tight pressure gradient and gale-force winds along the eastern FL Peninsula, where a moist air mass, in combination with a weak shortwave trough, will lead to scattered thunderstorms. Most of the activity will be immediately along or east of the coast, as low pressure develops. While low-level shear may conditionally favor rotation, there will be little to no severe threat assuming large storm clustering over the water, which would affect convergence inland. As such, will maintain general thunderstorms in the outlook, which will be aided by cool air aloft, and should support scattered inland convection, albeit disorganized. ..Jewell/Moore.. 11/16/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may threaten the southern and eastern Florida Peninsula, but the bulk of the activity is expected to remain offshore. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong upper trough will move eastward across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley today, with an associated cold front interacting with a relatively stable air mass. This will be due in part to dry trajectories out of a strong Mid Atlantic surface high. This high will also be responsible for a tight pressure gradient and gale-force winds along the eastern FL Peninsula, where a moist air mass, in combination with a weak shortwave trough, will lead to scattered thunderstorms. Most of the activity will be immediately along or east of the coast, as low pressure develops. While low-level shear may conditionally favor rotation, there will be little to no severe threat assuming large storm clustering over the water, which would affect convergence inland. As such, will maintain general thunderstorms in the outlook, which will be aided by cool air aloft, and should support scattered inland convection, albeit disorganized. ..Jewell/Moore.. 11/16/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may threaten the southern and eastern Florida Peninsula, but the bulk of the activity is expected to remain offshore. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong upper trough will move eastward across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley today, with an associated cold front interacting with a relatively stable air mass. This will be due in part to dry trajectories out of a strong Mid Atlantic surface high. This high will also be responsible for a tight pressure gradient and gale-force winds along the eastern FL Peninsula, where a moist air mass, in combination with a weak shortwave trough, will lead to scattered thunderstorms. Most of the activity will be immediately along or east of the coast, as low pressure develops. While low-level shear may conditionally favor rotation, there will be little to no severe threat assuming large storm clustering over the water, which would affect convergence inland. As such, will maintain general thunderstorms in the outlook, which will be aided by cool air aloft, and should support scattered inland convection, albeit disorganized. ..Jewell/Moore.. 11/16/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may threaten the southern and eastern Florida Peninsula, but the bulk of the activity is expected to remain offshore. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong upper trough will move eastward across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley today, with an associated cold front interacting with a relatively stable air mass. This will be due in part to dry trajectories out of a strong Mid Atlantic surface high. This high will also be responsible for a tight pressure gradient and gale-force winds along the eastern FL Peninsula, where a moist air mass, in combination with a weak shortwave trough, will lead to scattered thunderstorms. Most of the activity will be immediately along or east of the coast, as low pressure develops. While low-level shear may conditionally favor rotation, there will be little to no severe threat assuming large storm clustering over the water, which would affect convergence inland. As such, will maintain general thunderstorms in the outlook, which will be aided by cool air aloft, and should support scattered inland convection, albeit disorganized. ..Jewell/Moore.. 11/16/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may threaten the southern and eastern Florida Peninsula, but the bulk of the activity is expected to remain offshore. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong upper trough will move eastward across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley today, with an associated cold front interacting with a relatively stable air mass. This will be due in part to dry trajectories out of a strong Mid Atlantic surface high. This high will also be responsible for a tight pressure gradient and gale-force winds along the eastern FL Peninsula, where a moist air mass, in combination with a weak shortwave trough, will lead to scattered thunderstorms. Most of the activity will be immediately along or east of the coast, as low pressure develops. While low-level shear may conditionally favor rotation, there will be little to no severe threat assuming large storm clustering over the water, which would affect convergence inland. As such, will maintain general thunderstorms in the outlook, which will be aided by cool air aloft, and should support scattered inland convection, albeit disorganized. ..Jewell/Moore.. 11/16/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may threaten the southern and eastern Florida Peninsula, but the bulk of the activity is expected to remain offshore. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong upper trough will move eastward across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley today, with an associated cold front interacting with a relatively stable air mass. This will be due in part to dry trajectories out of a strong Mid Atlantic surface high. This high will also be responsible for a tight pressure gradient and gale-force winds along the eastern FL Peninsula, where a moist air mass, in combination with a weak shortwave trough, will lead to scattered thunderstorms. Most of the activity will be immediately along or east of the coast, as low pressure develops. While low-level shear may conditionally favor rotation, there will be little to no severe threat assuming large storm clustering over the water, which would affect convergence inland. As such, will maintain general thunderstorms in the outlook, which will be aided by cool air aloft, and should support scattered inland convection, albeit disorganized. ..Jewell/Moore.. 11/16/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE UPPER KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A low threat of a brief/weak tornado exists for a small part of far southern Florida. ...Extreme southern FL toward the Upper Keys... Clusters of thunderstorms may linger this evening over the far southern FL Peninsula and Upper Keys, where dewpoints will remain in the lower 70s F. Low-level shear will also remain favorable for rotation, with the greatest relative risk immediately along and coast and over the water where low-level lapse rates will remain more favorable. Available 00Z soundings show limited instability, especially for surface-based parcels. As such, any weak/brief tornado risk appears low over land. ..Jewell.. 11/16/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE UPPER KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A low threat of a brief/weak tornado exists for a small part of far southern Florida. ...Extreme southern FL toward the Upper Keys... Clusters of thunderstorms may linger this evening over the far southern FL Peninsula and Upper Keys, where dewpoints will remain in the lower 70s F. Low-level shear will also remain favorable for rotation, with the greatest relative risk immediately along and coast and over the water where low-level lapse rates will remain more favorable. Available 00Z soundings show limited instability, especially for surface-based parcels. As such, any weak/brief tornado risk appears low over land. ..Jewell.. 11/16/2023 Read more