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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2023 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging wind and possibly a tornado will be possible across parts of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday, mainly early in the day. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough is expected to move across parts of the MS/OH Valleys and Southeast on Tuesday, though considerable spread remains regarding the synoptic-scale details. The primary surface cyclone is forecast to move toward the lower Great Lakes, with secondary cyclogenesis possible across parts of the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic late in the period. A cold front will continue to move through portions of the Southeast. ...Parts of AL and the FL Panhandle into southwest GA... At the start of the period Tuesday morning, rather strong low-level and deep-layer shear will likely overlap a moist and weakly unstable environment across parts of south AL and the FL Panhandle, in advance of the cold front. Storms may persist along/ahead of the front through the morning, as a continuation of widespread convection from late in the D2/Monday period. Storm intensity and coverage may tend to wane with time, as stronger large-scale ascent becomes increasingly displaced from the warm sector, and instability weakens with eastward extent. However, some threat for isolated damaging wind and a brief tornado or two may persist during the day across southeast MS, south AL, the FL Panhandle, and possibly into parts of southwest GA. ...Carolinas and southern Mid Atlantic... Substantial spread persists among model guidance with regard to the synoptic pattern late on D3/Tuesday across parts of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic. The deterministic GFS and some GEFS members develop a mid/upper-level cyclone near the lower MS Valley, while most other guidance is notably less amplified, with a broad, positively tilted trough approaching the region. With rather strong low-level and deep-layer shear generally forecast to overspread an increasingly moist but only weakly unstable environment, the strength of large-scale forcing will be crucial for determining the potential for organized deep convection. Given the unusually large uncertainty at this forecast range, and the likelihood for instability to remain quite weak even in the stronger scenarios, no probabilities have been included with this outlook. However, if guidance trends towards a more strongly forced scenario across this region, then severe probabilities may eventually be needed for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. ..Dean.. 11/19/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2023 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging wind and possibly a tornado will be possible across parts of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday, mainly early in the day. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough is expected to move across parts of the MS/OH Valleys and Southeast on Tuesday, though considerable spread remains regarding the synoptic-scale details. The primary surface cyclone is forecast to move toward the lower Great Lakes, with secondary cyclogenesis possible across parts of the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic late in the period. A cold front will continue to move through portions of the Southeast. ...Parts of AL and the FL Panhandle into southwest GA... At the start of the period Tuesday morning, rather strong low-level and deep-layer shear will likely overlap a moist and weakly unstable environment across parts of south AL and the FL Panhandle, in advance of the cold front. Storms may persist along/ahead of the front through the morning, as a continuation of widespread convection from late in the D2/Monday period. Storm intensity and coverage may tend to wane with time, as stronger large-scale ascent becomes increasingly displaced from the warm sector, and instability weakens with eastward extent. However, some threat for isolated damaging wind and a brief tornado or two may persist during the day across southeast MS, south AL, the FL Panhandle, and possibly into parts of southwest GA. ...Carolinas and southern Mid Atlantic... Substantial spread persists among model guidance with regard to the synoptic pattern late on D3/Tuesday across parts of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic. The deterministic GFS and some GEFS members develop a mid/upper-level cyclone near the lower MS Valley, while most other guidance is notably less amplified, with a broad, positively tilted trough approaching the region. With rather strong low-level and deep-layer shear generally forecast to overspread an increasingly moist but only weakly unstable environment, the strength of large-scale forcing will be crucial for determining the potential for organized deep convection. Given the unusually large uncertainty at this forecast range, and the likelihood for instability to remain quite weak even in the stronger scenarios, no probabilities have been included with this outlook. However, if guidance trends towards a more strongly forced scenario across this region, then severe probabilities may eventually be needed for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. ..Dean.. 11/19/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2023 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging wind and possibly a tornado will be possible across parts of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday, mainly early in the day. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough is expected to move across parts of the MS/OH Valleys and Southeast on Tuesday, though considerable spread remains regarding the synoptic-scale details. The primary surface cyclone is forecast to move toward the lower Great Lakes, with secondary cyclogenesis possible across parts of the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic late in the period. A cold front will continue to move through portions of the Southeast. ...Parts of AL and the FL Panhandle into southwest GA... At the start of the period Tuesday morning, rather strong low-level and deep-layer shear will likely overlap a moist and weakly unstable environment across parts of south AL and the FL Panhandle, in advance of the cold front. Storms may persist along/ahead of the front through the morning, as a continuation of widespread convection from late in the D2/Monday period. Storm intensity and coverage may tend to wane with time, as stronger large-scale ascent becomes increasingly displaced from the warm sector, and instability weakens with eastward extent. However, some threat for isolated damaging wind and a brief tornado or two may persist during the day across southeast MS, south AL, the FL Panhandle, and possibly into parts of southwest GA. ...Carolinas and southern Mid Atlantic... Substantial spread persists among model guidance with regard to the synoptic pattern late on D3/Tuesday across parts of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic. The deterministic GFS and some GEFS members develop a mid/upper-level cyclone near the lower MS Valley, while most other guidance is notably less amplified, with a broad, positively tilted trough approaching the region. With rather strong low-level and deep-layer shear generally forecast to overspread an increasingly moist but only weakly unstable environment, the strength of large-scale forcing will be crucial for determining the potential for organized deep convection. Given the unusually large uncertainty at this forecast range, and the likelihood for instability to remain quite weak even in the stronger scenarios, no probabilities have been included with this outlook. However, if guidance trends towards a more strongly forced scenario across this region, then severe probabilities may eventually be needed for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. ..Dean.. 11/19/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough over the Four Corners will begin to move eastward over the Plains and central US through Monday with an accompanying surface low and Pacific front. Very strong mid-level flow will overspread parts of the Southern High Plains, while surface high pressure develops within the Great Basin. Gusty winds are possible over parts of Southern CA and the southern High Plains, but recent rainfall and cooler conditions should keep fire-weather concerns localized. ...Southern Plains... To the east of the deepening Four Corners trough, very strong flow aloft is expected to overspread parts of the Southern High Plains and eastern NM as the upper-level systems begins to move east. Aided by the low over central OK, gusty northwest surface winds are possible across west TX and eastern NM Monday afternoon and evening. However, recent rainfall and cooler temperatures in the wake of the passing Pacific front should keep RH above critical levels. Gusty winds still may support brief local fire-weather concerns before weakening late Monday. ...Southern California... As the main upper trough continues to deepen, strong flow aloft along the backside will overspread parts of southern CA late this weekend into early Monday. High pressure over the Great Basin will tighten offshore surface pressure gradients, enhancing surface winds across Point Conception and the lee of the Peninsular Ranges. A few hours of gusty winds and low humidity are likely through Monday evening before winds begin to weaken into Tuesday morning. However, recent rain and the relatively brief period of offshore winds suggests any fire-weather concerns will remain localized, with only marginally receptive fuels. ..Lyons.. 11/19/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough over the Four Corners will begin to move eastward over the Plains and central US through Monday with an accompanying surface low and Pacific front. Very strong mid-level flow will overspread parts of the Southern High Plains, while surface high pressure develops within the Great Basin. Gusty winds are possible over parts of Southern CA and the southern High Plains, but recent rainfall and cooler conditions should keep fire-weather concerns localized. ...Southern Plains... To the east of the deepening Four Corners trough, very strong flow aloft is expected to overspread parts of the Southern High Plains and eastern NM as the upper-level systems begins to move east. Aided by the low over central OK, gusty northwest surface winds are possible across west TX and eastern NM Monday afternoon and evening. However, recent rainfall and cooler temperatures in the wake of the passing Pacific front should keep RH above critical levels. Gusty winds still may support brief local fire-weather concerns before weakening late Monday. ...Southern California... As the main upper trough continues to deepen, strong flow aloft along the backside will overspread parts of southern CA late this weekend into early Monday. High pressure over the Great Basin will tighten offshore surface pressure gradients, enhancing surface winds across Point Conception and the lee of the Peninsular Ranges. A few hours of gusty winds and low humidity are likely through Monday evening before winds begin to weaken into Tuesday morning. However, recent rain and the relatively brief period of offshore winds suggests any fire-weather concerns will remain localized, with only marginally receptive fuels. ..Lyons.. 11/19/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough over the Four Corners will begin to move eastward over the Plains and central US through Monday with an accompanying surface low and Pacific front. Very strong mid-level flow will overspread parts of the Southern High Plains, while surface high pressure develops within the Great Basin. Gusty winds are possible over parts of Southern CA and the southern High Plains, but recent rainfall and cooler conditions should keep fire-weather concerns localized. ...Southern Plains... To the east of the deepening Four Corners trough, very strong flow aloft is expected to overspread parts of the Southern High Plains and eastern NM as the upper-level systems begins to move east. Aided by the low over central OK, gusty northwest surface winds are possible across west TX and eastern NM Monday afternoon and evening. However, recent rainfall and cooler temperatures in the wake of the passing Pacific front should keep RH above critical levels. Gusty winds still may support brief local fire-weather concerns before weakening late Monday. ...Southern California... As the main upper trough continues to deepen, strong flow aloft along the backside will overspread parts of southern CA late this weekend into early Monday. High pressure over the Great Basin will tighten offshore surface pressure gradients, enhancing surface winds across Point Conception and the lee of the Peninsular Ranges. A few hours of gusty winds and low humidity are likely through Monday evening before winds begin to weaken into Tuesday morning. However, recent rain and the relatively brief period of offshore winds suggests any fire-weather concerns will remain localized, with only marginally receptive fuels. ..Lyons.. 11/19/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough over the Four Corners will begin to move eastward over the Plains and central US through Monday with an accompanying surface low and Pacific front. Very strong mid-level flow will overspread parts of the Southern High Plains, while surface high pressure develops within the Great Basin. Gusty winds are possible over parts of Southern CA and the southern High Plains, but recent rainfall and cooler conditions should keep fire-weather concerns localized. ...Southern Plains... To the east of the deepening Four Corners trough, very strong flow aloft is expected to overspread parts of the Southern High Plains and eastern NM as the upper-level systems begins to move east. Aided by the low over central OK, gusty northwest surface winds are possible across west TX and eastern NM Monday afternoon and evening. However, recent rainfall and cooler temperatures in the wake of the passing Pacific front should keep RH above critical levels. Gusty winds still may support brief local fire-weather concerns before weakening late Monday. ...Southern California... As the main upper trough continues to deepen, strong flow aloft along the backside will overspread parts of southern CA late this weekend into early Monday. High pressure over the Great Basin will tighten offshore surface pressure gradients, enhancing surface winds across Point Conception and the lee of the Peninsular Ranges. A few hours of gusty winds and low humidity are likely through Monday evening before winds begin to weaken into Tuesday morning. However, recent rain and the relatively brief period of offshore winds suggests any fire-weather concerns will remain localized, with only marginally receptive fuels. ..Lyons.. 11/19/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough over the Four Corners will begin to move eastward over the Plains and central US through Monday with an accompanying surface low and Pacific front. Very strong mid-level flow will overspread parts of the Southern High Plains, while surface high pressure develops within the Great Basin. Gusty winds are possible over parts of Southern CA and the southern High Plains, but recent rainfall and cooler conditions should keep fire-weather concerns localized. ...Southern Plains... To the east of the deepening Four Corners trough, very strong flow aloft is expected to overspread parts of the Southern High Plains and eastern NM as the upper-level systems begins to move east. Aided by the low over central OK, gusty northwest surface winds are possible across west TX and eastern NM Monday afternoon and evening. However, recent rainfall and cooler temperatures in the wake of the passing Pacific front should keep RH above critical levels. Gusty winds still may support brief local fire-weather concerns before weakening late Monday. ...Southern California... As the main upper trough continues to deepen, strong flow aloft along the backside will overspread parts of southern CA late this weekend into early Monday. High pressure over the Great Basin will tighten offshore surface pressure gradients, enhancing surface winds across Point Conception and the lee of the Peninsular Ranges. A few hours of gusty winds and low humidity are likely through Monday evening before winds begin to weaken into Tuesday morning. However, recent rain and the relatively brief period of offshore winds suggests any fire-weather concerns will remain localized, with only marginally receptive fuels. ..Lyons.. 11/19/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough over the Four Corners will begin to move eastward over the Plains and central US through Monday with an accompanying surface low and Pacific front. Very strong mid-level flow will overspread parts of the Southern High Plains, while surface high pressure develops within the Great Basin. Gusty winds are possible over parts of Southern CA and the southern High Plains, but recent rainfall and cooler conditions should keep fire-weather concerns localized. ...Southern Plains... To the east of the deepening Four Corners trough, very strong flow aloft is expected to overspread parts of the Southern High Plains and eastern NM as the upper-level systems begins to move east. Aided by the low over central OK, gusty northwest surface winds are possible across west TX and eastern NM Monday afternoon and evening. However, recent rainfall and cooler temperatures in the wake of the passing Pacific front should keep RH above critical levels. Gusty winds still may support brief local fire-weather concerns before weakening late Monday. ...Southern California... As the main upper trough continues to deepen, strong flow aloft along the backside will overspread parts of southern CA late this weekend into early Monday. High pressure over the Great Basin will tighten offshore surface pressure gradients, enhancing surface winds across Point Conception and the lee of the Peninsular Ranges. A few hours of gusty winds and low humidity are likely through Monday evening before winds begin to weaken into Tuesday morning. However, recent rain and the relatively brief period of offshore winds suggests any fire-weather concerns will remain localized, with only marginally receptive fuels. ..Lyons.. 11/19/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A broad western US trough is forecast to amplify considerably through the period as it digs southeastward toward the Four Corners later tonight. Strong mid-level flow along the back of the trough will move onshore over the West Coast as Pacific ridging intensifies farther west. Surface high pressure will intensify over the northern Great Basin, helping to strengthen surface pressure gradients over parts of southern CA late tonight into early Monday. Gusty winds are possible over parts of southern CA and the lower CO River Valley. However, recent precipitation and only modest RH decreases should keep fire-weather concerns low. Fire-weather concerns are also expected to remain localized across the southern Appalachians and TN Valley where high pressure will support dry surface conditions, but weak winds. ..Lyons.. 11/19/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A broad western US trough is forecast to amplify considerably through the period as it digs southeastward toward the Four Corners later tonight. Strong mid-level flow along the back of the trough will move onshore over the West Coast as Pacific ridging intensifies farther west. Surface high pressure will intensify over the northern Great Basin, helping to strengthen surface pressure gradients over parts of southern CA late tonight into early Monday. Gusty winds are possible over parts of southern CA and the lower CO River Valley. However, recent precipitation and only modest RH decreases should keep fire-weather concerns low. Fire-weather concerns are also expected to remain localized across the southern Appalachians and TN Valley where high pressure will support dry surface conditions, but weak winds. ..Lyons.. 11/19/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A broad western US trough is forecast to amplify considerably through the period as it digs southeastward toward the Four Corners later tonight. Strong mid-level flow along the back of the trough will move onshore over the West Coast as Pacific ridging intensifies farther west. Surface high pressure will intensify over the northern Great Basin, helping to strengthen surface pressure gradients over parts of southern CA late tonight into early Monday. Gusty winds are possible over parts of southern CA and the lower CO River Valley. However, recent precipitation and only modest RH decreases should keep fire-weather concerns low. Fire-weather concerns are also expected to remain localized across the southern Appalachians and TN Valley where high pressure will support dry surface conditions, but weak winds. ..Lyons.. 11/19/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A broad western US trough is forecast to amplify considerably through the period as it digs southeastward toward the Four Corners later tonight. Strong mid-level flow along the back of the trough will move onshore over the West Coast as Pacific ridging intensifies farther west. Surface high pressure will intensify over the northern Great Basin, helping to strengthen surface pressure gradients over parts of southern CA late tonight into early Monday. Gusty winds are possible over parts of southern CA and the lower CO River Valley. However, recent precipitation and only modest RH decreases should keep fire-weather concerns low. Fire-weather concerns are also expected to remain localized across the southern Appalachians and TN Valley where high pressure will support dry surface conditions, but weak winds. ..Lyons.. 11/19/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A broad western US trough is forecast to amplify considerably through the period as it digs southeastward toward the Four Corners later tonight. Strong mid-level flow along the back of the trough will move onshore over the West Coast as Pacific ridging intensifies farther west. Surface high pressure will intensify over the northern Great Basin, helping to strengthen surface pressure gradients over parts of southern CA late tonight into early Monday. Gusty winds are possible over parts of southern CA and the lower CO River Valley. However, recent precipitation and only modest RH decreases should keep fire-weather concerns low. Fire-weather concerns are also expected to remain localized across the southern Appalachians and TN Valley where high pressure will support dry surface conditions, but weak winds. ..Lyons.. 11/19/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A broad western US trough is forecast to amplify considerably through the period as it digs southeastward toward the Four Corners later tonight. Strong mid-level flow along the back of the trough will move onshore over the West Coast as Pacific ridging intensifies farther west. Surface high pressure will intensify over the northern Great Basin, helping to strengthen surface pressure gradients over parts of southern CA late tonight into early Monday. Gusty winds are possible over parts of southern CA and the lower CO River Valley. However, recent precipitation and only modest RH decreases should keep fire-weather concerns low. Fire-weather concerns are also expected to remain localized across the southern Appalachians and TN Valley where high pressure will support dry surface conditions, but weak winds. ..Lyons.. 11/19/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon into Monday night from east Texas into parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Damaging wind and a few tornadoes are expected to be the primary hazards, though some hail will also be possible. ...Synopsis... A complex mid/upper-level trough will gradually shift eastward across the central CONUS on Monday, as a vigorous vorticity maximum and related mid/upper-level jet move through the base of the trough from the southern Plains into the lower/mid MS Valley. A surface cyclone initially over OK is forecast to move eastward toward the lower MS Valley during the day, then northeastward toward the lower OH Valley Monday night. Relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward in advance of the cyclone and trailing cold front, with mid/upper 60s F dewpoints becoming established across east TX into LA during the day, and into parts of MS and western AL by Monday evening into the overnight. ...East TX/ArkLaTex into the lower MS Valley and Southeast... Thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards will be possible from east TX into the lower MS Valley Monday afternoon and evening, but uncertainties remain regarding favored corridors of greater threat and the longevity of the threat Monday night within a lower CAPE (but high shear) environment. Modest heating of an increasingly moist environment will support prefrontal MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg Monday afternoon from near the ArkLaTex region southward across east TX. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible near the surface low and cold front, and also potentially within an increasingly moist prefrontal warm sector. Wind profiles may initially be rather unidirectional, but strong mid/upper-level flow will support effective shear of 50-60 kt, more than sufficient for supercells. Large hail and locally damaging gusts will be the primary initial threats. Some tornado threat will potentially evolve with any persistent supercells as low-level shear/SRH generally increases with time. A transition to more of a cluster or linear mode is expected as storms move east-northeastward and increase in coverage across the ArkLaMiss region, with some increase in damaging-wind potential. Some tornado threat may continue into Monday night as well, in association with any persistent supercells and/or stronger line-embedded mesovortices. The severe threat may persist as far east as western AL, though a gradual decreasing trend is expected with time and eastward extent, as the surface cyclone and stronger large-scale ascent move northeastward away from the warm sector early Tuesday morning. A broad Slight Risk has been maintained with this outlook, though a corridor of somewhat greater tornado/wind threat may eventually evolve within this area, including the potential for a strong tornado. Due to lingering uncertainties regarding the strength of low-level mass response and the extent of sufficient instability, confidence remains too low for greater unconditional probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 11/19/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon into Monday night from east Texas into parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Damaging wind and a few tornadoes are expected to be the primary hazards, though some hail will also be possible. ...Synopsis... A complex mid/upper-level trough will gradually shift eastward across the central CONUS on Monday, as a vigorous vorticity maximum and related mid/upper-level jet move through the base of the trough from the southern Plains into the lower/mid MS Valley. A surface cyclone initially over OK is forecast to move eastward toward the lower MS Valley during the day, then northeastward toward the lower OH Valley Monday night. Relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward in advance of the cyclone and trailing cold front, with mid/upper 60s F dewpoints becoming established across east TX into LA during the day, and into parts of MS and western AL by Monday evening into the overnight. ...East TX/ArkLaTex into the lower MS Valley and Southeast... Thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards will be possible from east TX into the lower MS Valley Monday afternoon and evening, but uncertainties remain regarding favored corridors of greater threat and the longevity of the threat Monday night within a lower CAPE (but high shear) environment. Modest heating of an increasingly moist environment will support prefrontal MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg Monday afternoon from near the ArkLaTex region southward across east TX. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible near the surface low and cold front, and also potentially within an increasingly moist prefrontal warm sector. Wind profiles may initially be rather unidirectional, but strong mid/upper-level flow will support effective shear of 50-60 kt, more than sufficient for supercells. Large hail and locally damaging gusts will be the primary initial threats. Some tornado threat will potentially evolve with any persistent supercells as low-level shear/SRH generally increases with time. A transition to more of a cluster or linear mode is expected as storms move east-northeastward and increase in coverage across the ArkLaMiss region, with some increase in damaging-wind potential. Some tornado threat may continue into Monday night as well, in association with any persistent supercells and/or stronger line-embedded mesovortices. The severe threat may persist as far east as western AL, though a gradual decreasing trend is expected with time and eastward extent, as the surface cyclone and stronger large-scale ascent move northeastward away from the warm sector early Tuesday morning. A broad Slight Risk has been maintained with this outlook, though a corridor of somewhat greater tornado/wind threat may eventually evolve within this area, including the potential for a strong tornado. Due to lingering uncertainties regarding the strength of low-level mass response and the extent of sufficient instability, confidence remains too low for greater unconditional probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 11/19/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon into Monday night from east Texas into parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Damaging wind and a few tornadoes are expected to be the primary hazards, though some hail will also be possible. ...Synopsis... A complex mid/upper-level trough will gradually shift eastward across the central CONUS on Monday, as a vigorous vorticity maximum and related mid/upper-level jet move through the base of the trough from the southern Plains into the lower/mid MS Valley. A surface cyclone initially over OK is forecast to move eastward toward the lower MS Valley during the day, then northeastward toward the lower OH Valley Monday night. Relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward in advance of the cyclone and trailing cold front, with mid/upper 60s F dewpoints becoming established across east TX into LA during the day, and into parts of MS and western AL by Monday evening into the overnight. ...East TX/ArkLaTex into the lower MS Valley and Southeast... Thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards will be possible from east TX into the lower MS Valley Monday afternoon and evening, but uncertainties remain regarding favored corridors of greater threat and the longevity of the threat Monday night within a lower CAPE (but high shear) environment. Modest heating of an increasingly moist environment will support prefrontal MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg Monday afternoon from near the ArkLaTex region southward across east TX. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible near the surface low and cold front, and also potentially within an increasingly moist prefrontal warm sector. Wind profiles may initially be rather unidirectional, but strong mid/upper-level flow will support effective shear of 50-60 kt, more than sufficient for supercells. Large hail and locally damaging gusts will be the primary initial threats. Some tornado threat will potentially evolve with any persistent supercells as low-level shear/SRH generally increases with time. A transition to more of a cluster or linear mode is expected as storms move east-northeastward and increase in coverage across the ArkLaMiss region, with some increase in damaging-wind potential. Some tornado threat may continue into Monday night as well, in association with any persistent supercells and/or stronger line-embedded mesovortices. The severe threat may persist as far east as western AL, though a gradual decreasing trend is expected with time and eastward extent, as the surface cyclone and stronger large-scale ascent move northeastward away from the warm sector early Tuesday morning. A broad Slight Risk has been maintained with this outlook, though a corridor of somewhat greater tornado/wind threat may eventually evolve within this area, including the potential for a strong tornado. Due to lingering uncertainties regarding the strength of low-level mass response and the extent of sufficient instability, confidence remains too low for greater unconditional probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 11/19/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon into Monday night from east Texas into parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Damaging wind and a few tornadoes are expected to be the primary hazards, though some hail will also be possible. ...Synopsis... A complex mid/upper-level trough will gradually shift eastward across the central CONUS on Monday, as a vigorous vorticity maximum and related mid/upper-level jet move through the base of the trough from the southern Plains into the lower/mid MS Valley. A surface cyclone initially over OK is forecast to move eastward toward the lower MS Valley during the day, then northeastward toward the lower OH Valley Monday night. Relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward in advance of the cyclone and trailing cold front, with mid/upper 60s F dewpoints becoming established across east TX into LA during the day, and into parts of MS and western AL by Monday evening into the overnight. ...East TX/ArkLaTex into the lower MS Valley and Southeast... Thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards will be possible from east TX into the lower MS Valley Monday afternoon and evening, but uncertainties remain regarding favored corridors of greater threat and the longevity of the threat Monday night within a lower CAPE (but high shear) environment. Modest heating of an increasingly moist environment will support prefrontal MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg Monday afternoon from near the ArkLaTex region southward across east TX. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible near the surface low and cold front, and also potentially within an increasingly moist prefrontal warm sector. Wind profiles may initially be rather unidirectional, but strong mid/upper-level flow will support effective shear of 50-60 kt, more than sufficient for supercells. Large hail and locally damaging gusts will be the primary initial threats. Some tornado threat will potentially evolve with any persistent supercells as low-level shear/SRH generally increases with time. A transition to more of a cluster or linear mode is expected as storms move east-northeastward and increase in coverage across the ArkLaMiss region, with some increase in damaging-wind potential. Some tornado threat may continue into Monday night as well, in association with any persistent supercells and/or stronger line-embedded mesovortices. The severe threat may persist as far east as western AL, though a gradual decreasing trend is expected with time and eastward extent, as the surface cyclone and stronger large-scale ascent move northeastward away from the warm sector early Tuesday morning. A broad Slight Risk has been maintained with this outlook, though a corridor of somewhat greater tornado/wind threat may eventually evolve within this area, including the potential for a strong tornado. Due to lingering uncertainties regarding the strength of low-level mass response and the extent of sufficient instability, confidence remains too low for greater unconditional probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 11/19/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon into Monday night from east Texas into parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Damaging wind and a few tornadoes are expected to be the primary hazards, though some hail will also be possible. ...Synopsis... A complex mid/upper-level trough will gradually shift eastward across the central CONUS on Monday, as a vigorous vorticity maximum and related mid/upper-level jet move through the base of the trough from the southern Plains into the lower/mid MS Valley. A surface cyclone initially over OK is forecast to move eastward toward the lower MS Valley during the day, then northeastward toward the lower OH Valley Monday night. Relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward in advance of the cyclone and trailing cold front, with mid/upper 60s F dewpoints becoming established across east TX into LA during the day, and into parts of MS and western AL by Monday evening into the overnight. ...East TX/ArkLaTex into the lower MS Valley and Southeast... Thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards will be possible from east TX into the lower MS Valley Monday afternoon and evening, but uncertainties remain regarding favored corridors of greater threat and the longevity of the threat Monday night within a lower CAPE (but high shear) environment. Modest heating of an increasingly moist environment will support prefrontal MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg Monday afternoon from near the ArkLaTex region southward across east TX. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible near the surface low and cold front, and also potentially within an increasingly moist prefrontal warm sector. Wind profiles may initially be rather unidirectional, but strong mid/upper-level flow will support effective shear of 50-60 kt, more than sufficient for supercells. Large hail and locally damaging gusts will be the primary initial threats. Some tornado threat will potentially evolve with any persistent supercells as low-level shear/SRH generally increases with time. A transition to more of a cluster or linear mode is expected as storms move east-northeastward and increase in coverage across the ArkLaMiss region, with some increase in damaging-wind potential. Some tornado threat may continue into Monday night as well, in association with any persistent supercells and/or stronger line-embedded mesovortices. The severe threat may persist as far east as western AL, though a gradual decreasing trend is expected with time and eastward extent, as the surface cyclone and stronger large-scale ascent move northeastward away from the warm sector early Tuesday morning. A broad Slight Risk has been maintained with this outlook, though a corridor of somewhat greater tornado/wind threat may eventually evolve within this area, including the potential for a strong tornado. Due to lingering uncertainties regarding the strength of low-level mass response and the extent of sufficient instability, confidence remains too low for greater unconditional probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 11/19/2023 Read more