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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may threaten the southern and eastern Florida Peninsula, but the bulk of the activity is expected to remain offshore. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern over the western CONUS will continue to be characterized by converging split flow in the Rockies region -- downstream from a cut-off synoptic cyclone over the Pacific. That cyclone will begin to move slowly eastward through the period, but will remain well offshore until day 2. An ejecting, deamplifying, basal shortwave trough will cross the central CA coastal areas around 00Z. Forecast soundings suggest deep-enough buoyancy for isolated coastal and inland thunder potential with convection occupying a related swath of large-scale DCVA/lift and strongly difluent mid/upper flow. Isolated elevated thunderstorms also may develop in a low-level warm/moist-advection swath farther southeast from the lower Colorado River Valley across parts of AZ, but with more marginal instability and somewhat weaker lift. A northern-stream trough initially was located from northwestern Hudson Bay southwestward over MT. This feature should amplify and move eastward to northwestern ON, Lake Superior, the upper Mississippi Valley, and the lower Missouri Valley by 12Z tomorrow. Downstream height falls will spread over much of the eastern CONUS. The southeastern periphery of those height falls will encourage a continued slow eastward shift of a weaker, southern-stream, mid/upper-level trough now apparent in moisture-channel imagery over the eastern Gulf. That trough should extend from just off the JAX/DAB area southwestward across the peninsula near FMY by 12Z. As that occurs, a low-level cyclone -- its center now apparent in satellite imagery near 26N89W -- will be left behind to continue drifting southwestward and weakening gradually. A quasistationary frontal zone extends from there roughly eastward across parts of the Keys and Straits to another low -- apparent as part of a prominent MCV on radar and satellite imagery near Bimini. Extensive convection has accompanied the eastern circulation -- which may pivot northward near the Gulf Stream today, but remaining largely offshore. Behind/southwest of it, several stable layers aloft -- sampled by 12Z KEY/MFL soundings, should inhibit convective potential over south FL. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may occur in MCV-enhanced/deep low-level easterlies farther north across central/eastern FL. Adequate speed shear, but little directional change in the easterly layer, will render modest, somewhat hook-shaped low-level hodographs, beneath weak midlevel southerlies/southwesterlies. A few cells may exhibit weak rotation inland, or produce strong gusts with downdrafts superimposed on the ambient/gradient flow, but the greatest convective coverage and intensity should be out to sea. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 11/16/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may threaten the southern and eastern Florida Peninsula, but the bulk of the activity is expected to remain offshore. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern over the western CONUS will continue to be characterized by converging split flow in the Rockies region -- downstream from a cut-off synoptic cyclone over the Pacific. That cyclone will begin to move slowly eastward through the period, but will remain well offshore until day 2. An ejecting, deamplifying, basal shortwave trough will cross the central CA coastal areas around 00Z. Forecast soundings suggest deep-enough buoyancy for isolated coastal and inland thunder potential with convection occupying a related swath of large-scale DCVA/lift and strongly difluent mid/upper flow. Isolated elevated thunderstorms also may develop in a low-level warm/moist-advection swath farther southeast from the lower Colorado River Valley across parts of AZ, but with more marginal instability and somewhat weaker lift. A northern-stream trough initially was located from northwestern Hudson Bay southwestward over MT. This feature should amplify and move eastward to northwestern ON, Lake Superior, the upper Mississippi Valley, and the lower Missouri Valley by 12Z tomorrow. Downstream height falls will spread over much of the eastern CONUS. The southeastern periphery of those height falls will encourage a continued slow eastward shift of a weaker, southern-stream, mid/upper-level trough now apparent in moisture-channel imagery over the eastern Gulf. That trough should extend from just off the JAX/DAB area southwestward across the peninsula near FMY by 12Z. As that occurs, a low-level cyclone -- its center now apparent in satellite imagery near 26N89W -- will be left behind to continue drifting southwestward and weakening gradually. A quasistationary frontal zone extends from there roughly eastward across parts of the Keys and Straits to another low -- apparent as part of a prominent MCV on radar and satellite imagery near Bimini. Extensive convection has accompanied the eastern circulation -- which may pivot northward near the Gulf Stream today, but remaining largely offshore. Behind/southwest of it, several stable layers aloft -- sampled by 12Z KEY/MFL soundings, should inhibit convective potential over south FL. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may occur in MCV-enhanced/deep low-level easterlies farther north across central/eastern FL. Adequate speed shear, but little directional change in the easterly layer, will render modest, somewhat hook-shaped low-level hodographs, beneath weak midlevel southerlies/southwesterlies. A few cells may exhibit weak rotation inland, or produce strong gusts with downdrafts superimposed on the ambient/gradient flow, but the greatest convective coverage and intensity should be out to sea. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 11/16/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may threaten the southern and eastern Florida Peninsula, but the bulk of the activity is expected to remain offshore. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern over the western CONUS will continue to be characterized by converging split flow in the Rockies region -- downstream from a cut-off synoptic cyclone over the Pacific. That cyclone will begin to move slowly eastward through the period, but will remain well offshore until day 2. An ejecting, deamplifying, basal shortwave trough will cross the central CA coastal areas around 00Z. Forecast soundings suggest deep-enough buoyancy for isolated coastal and inland thunder potential with convection occupying a related swath of large-scale DCVA/lift and strongly difluent mid/upper flow. Isolated elevated thunderstorms also may develop in a low-level warm/moist-advection swath farther southeast from the lower Colorado River Valley across parts of AZ, but with more marginal instability and somewhat weaker lift. A northern-stream trough initially was located from northwestern Hudson Bay southwestward over MT. This feature should amplify and move eastward to northwestern ON, Lake Superior, the upper Mississippi Valley, and the lower Missouri Valley by 12Z tomorrow. Downstream height falls will spread over much of the eastern CONUS. The southeastern periphery of those height falls will encourage a continued slow eastward shift of a weaker, southern-stream, mid/upper-level trough now apparent in moisture-channel imagery over the eastern Gulf. That trough should extend from just off the JAX/DAB area southwestward across the peninsula near FMY by 12Z. As that occurs, a low-level cyclone -- its center now apparent in satellite imagery near 26N89W -- will be left behind to continue drifting southwestward and weakening gradually. A quasistationary frontal zone extends from there roughly eastward across parts of the Keys and Straits to another low -- apparent as part of a prominent MCV on radar and satellite imagery near Bimini. Extensive convection has accompanied the eastern circulation -- which may pivot northward near the Gulf Stream today, but remaining largely offshore. Behind/southwest of it, several stable layers aloft -- sampled by 12Z KEY/MFL soundings, should inhibit convective potential over south FL. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may occur in MCV-enhanced/deep low-level easterlies farther north across central/eastern FL. Adequate speed shear, but little directional change in the easterly layer, will render modest, somewhat hook-shaped low-level hodographs, beneath weak midlevel southerlies/southwesterlies. A few cells may exhibit weak rotation inland, or produce strong gusts with downdrafts superimposed on the ambient/gradient flow, but the greatest convective coverage and intensity should be out to sea. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 11/16/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may threaten the southern and eastern Florida Peninsula, but the bulk of the activity is expected to remain offshore. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern over the western CONUS will continue to be characterized by converging split flow in the Rockies region -- downstream from a cut-off synoptic cyclone over the Pacific. That cyclone will begin to move slowly eastward through the period, but will remain well offshore until day 2. An ejecting, deamplifying, basal shortwave trough will cross the central CA coastal areas around 00Z. Forecast soundings suggest deep-enough buoyancy for isolated coastal and inland thunder potential with convection occupying a related swath of large-scale DCVA/lift and strongly difluent mid/upper flow. Isolated elevated thunderstorms also may develop in a low-level warm/moist-advection swath farther southeast from the lower Colorado River Valley across parts of AZ, but with more marginal instability and somewhat weaker lift. A northern-stream trough initially was located from northwestern Hudson Bay southwestward over MT. This feature should amplify and move eastward to northwestern ON, Lake Superior, the upper Mississippi Valley, and the lower Missouri Valley by 12Z tomorrow. Downstream height falls will spread over much of the eastern CONUS. The southeastern periphery of those height falls will encourage a continued slow eastward shift of a weaker, southern-stream, mid/upper-level trough now apparent in moisture-channel imagery over the eastern Gulf. That trough should extend from just off the JAX/DAB area southwestward across the peninsula near FMY by 12Z. As that occurs, a low-level cyclone -- its center now apparent in satellite imagery near 26N89W -- will be left behind to continue drifting southwestward and weakening gradually. A quasistationary frontal zone extends from there roughly eastward across parts of the Keys and Straits to another low -- apparent as part of a prominent MCV on radar and satellite imagery near Bimini. Extensive convection has accompanied the eastern circulation -- which may pivot northward near the Gulf Stream today, but remaining largely offshore. Behind/southwest of it, several stable layers aloft -- sampled by 12Z KEY/MFL soundings, should inhibit convective potential over south FL. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may occur in MCV-enhanced/deep low-level easterlies farther north across central/eastern FL. Adequate speed shear, but little directional change in the easterly layer, will render modest, somewhat hook-shaped low-level hodographs, beneath weak midlevel southerlies/southwesterlies. A few cells may exhibit weak rotation inland, or produce strong gusts with downdrafts superimposed on the ambient/gradient flow, but the greatest convective coverage and intensity should be out to sea. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 11/16/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may threaten the southern and eastern Florida Peninsula, but the bulk of the activity is expected to remain offshore. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern over the western CONUS will continue to be characterized by converging split flow in the Rockies region -- downstream from a cut-off synoptic cyclone over the Pacific. That cyclone will begin to move slowly eastward through the period, but will remain well offshore until day 2. An ejecting, deamplifying, basal shortwave trough will cross the central CA coastal areas around 00Z. Forecast soundings suggest deep-enough buoyancy for isolated coastal and inland thunder potential with convection occupying a related swath of large-scale DCVA/lift and strongly difluent mid/upper flow. Isolated elevated thunderstorms also may develop in a low-level warm/moist-advection swath farther southeast from the lower Colorado River Valley across parts of AZ, but with more marginal instability and somewhat weaker lift. A northern-stream trough initially was located from northwestern Hudson Bay southwestward over MT. This feature should amplify and move eastward to northwestern ON, Lake Superior, the upper Mississippi Valley, and the lower Missouri Valley by 12Z tomorrow. Downstream height falls will spread over much of the eastern CONUS. The southeastern periphery of those height falls will encourage a continued slow eastward shift of a weaker, southern-stream, mid/upper-level trough now apparent in moisture-channel imagery over the eastern Gulf. That trough should extend from just off the JAX/DAB area southwestward across the peninsula near FMY by 12Z. As that occurs, a low-level cyclone -- its center now apparent in satellite imagery near 26N89W -- will be left behind to continue drifting southwestward and weakening gradually. A quasistationary frontal zone extends from there roughly eastward across parts of the Keys and Straits to another low -- apparent as part of a prominent MCV on radar and satellite imagery near Bimini. Extensive convection has accompanied the eastern circulation -- which may pivot northward near the Gulf Stream today, but remaining largely offshore. Behind/southwest of it, several stable layers aloft -- sampled by 12Z KEY/MFL soundings, should inhibit convective potential over south FL. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may occur in MCV-enhanced/deep low-level easterlies farther north across central/eastern FL. Adequate speed shear, but little directional change in the easterly layer, will render modest, somewhat hook-shaped low-level hodographs, beneath weak midlevel southerlies/southwesterlies. A few cells may exhibit weak rotation inland, or produce strong gusts with downdrafts superimposed on the ambient/gradient flow, but the greatest convective coverage and intensity should be out to sea. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 11/16/2023 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5... A well-defined 80 to 100 kt mid-level jet will translate quickly southeastward across the Desert Southwest on Sunday. As a result, a rapid deepening of an upper-level trough is expected over the Rockies. The exit region of the jet is forecast to overspread the southern Plains on Sunday, with moisture return taking place across the southern Plains. Surface dewpoints should reach the 60s F across parts of central and east Texas by afternoon. As large-scale ascent increases across the southern Plains, thunderstorm development is expected late Sunday afternoon along and near the moist axis from northeast Texas into east-central Oklahoma. The models are in reasonably good agreement on this. A narrow 15 percent contour has been added along the zone with the greatest severe-weather potential. Sunday night into Monday, an upper-level low is forecast to develop over the central Plains, as the southern extension of the associated trough moves quickly from the Desert Southwest into the southern Plains. New medium-range model forecasts are more aggressive with moisture return across the western and central Gulf Coast region. By mid afternoon on Monday, surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the 60s F from the Texas Coastal Plain east-northeastward throughout the lower Mississippi Valley and much of the central Gulf Coast states, with a broad low-level jet developing across the moist sector. In association with the low-level jet, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the day and move east-northeastward across the central Gulf Coast states. Although instability across the moist sector is forecast to remain weak, strong forcing and moderate to strong deep-layer shear will likely be favorable for severe storms. At this time, the lack of instability suggests there is uncertainty concerning how large the severe-threat area will be. Have added a 15 percent contour in the area where confidence is the greatest. ...Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8... From Tuesday to Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to move from the Mississippi Valley to the Eastern Seaboard. Thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday along parts of the Eastern Seaboard ahead of a fast-moving cold front. Surface high pressure is expected to move into much of the central and eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday. The associated dry airmass would limit thunderstorm potential in most areas across the continental U.S. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5... A well-defined 80 to 100 kt mid-level jet will translate quickly southeastward across the Desert Southwest on Sunday. As a result, a rapid deepening of an upper-level trough is expected over the Rockies. The exit region of the jet is forecast to overspread the southern Plains on Sunday, with moisture return taking place across the southern Plains. Surface dewpoints should reach the 60s F across parts of central and east Texas by afternoon. As large-scale ascent increases across the southern Plains, thunderstorm development is expected late Sunday afternoon along and near the moist axis from northeast Texas into east-central Oklahoma. The models are in reasonably good agreement on this. A narrow 15 percent contour has been added along the zone with the greatest severe-weather potential. Sunday night into Monday, an upper-level low is forecast to develop over the central Plains, as the southern extension of the associated trough moves quickly from the Desert Southwest into the southern Plains. New medium-range model forecasts are more aggressive with moisture return across the western and central Gulf Coast region. By mid afternoon on Monday, surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the 60s F from the Texas Coastal Plain east-northeastward throughout the lower Mississippi Valley and much of the central Gulf Coast states, with a broad low-level jet developing across the moist sector. In association with the low-level jet, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the day and move east-northeastward across the central Gulf Coast states. Although instability across the moist sector is forecast to remain weak, strong forcing and moderate to strong deep-layer shear will likely be favorable for severe storms. At this time, the lack of instability suggests there is uncertainty concerning how large the severe-threat area will be. Have added a 15 percent contour in the area where confidence is the greatest. ...Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8... From Tuesday to Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to move from the Mississippi Valley to the Eastern Seaboard. Thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday along parts of the Eastern Seaboard ahead of a fast-moving cold front. Surface high pressure is expected to move into much of the central and eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday. The associated dry airmass would limit thunderstorm potential in most areas across the continental U.S. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5... A well-defined 80 to 100 kt mid-level jet will translate quickly southeastward across the Desert Southwest on Sunday. As a result, a rapid deepening of an upper-level trough is expected over the Rockies. The exit region of the jet is forecast to overspread the southern Plains on Sunday, with moisture return taking place across the southern Plains. Surface dewpoints should reach the 60s F across parts of central and east Texas by afternoon. As large-scale ascent increases across the southern Plains, thunderstorm development is expected late Sunday afternoon along and near the moist axis from northeast Texas into east-central Oklahoma. The models are in reasonably good agreement on this. A narrow 15 percent contour has been added along the zone with the greatest severe-weather potential. Sunday night into Monday, an upper-level low is forecast to develop over the central Plains, as the southern extension of the associated trough moves quickly from the Desert Southwest into the southern Plains. New medium-range model forecasts are more aggressive with moisture return across the western and central Gulf Coast region. By mid afternoon on Monday, surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the 60s F from the Texas Coastal Plain east-northeastward throughout the lower Mississippi Valley and much of the central Gulf Coast states, with a broad low-level jet developing across the moist sector. In association with the low-level jet, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the day and move east-northeastward across the central Gulf Coast states. Although instability across the moist sector is forecast to remain weak, strong forcing and moderate to strong deep-layer shear will likely be favorable for severe storms. At this time, the lack of instability suggests there is uncertainty concerning how large the severe-threat area will be. Have added a 15 percent contour in the area where confidence is the greatest. ...Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8... From Tuesday to Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to move from the Mississippi Valley to the Eastern Seaboard. Thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday along parts of the Eastern Seaboard ahead of a fast-moving cold front. Surface high pressure is expected to move into much of the central and eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday. The associated dry airmass would limit thunderstorm potential in most areas across the continental U.S. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5... A well-defined 80 to 100 kt mid-level jet will translate quickly southeastward across the Desert Southwest on Sunday. As a result, a rapid deepening of an upper-level trough is expected over the Rockies. The exit region of the jet is forecast to overspread the southern Plains on Sunday, with moisture return taking place across the southern Plains. Surface dewpoints should reach the 60s F across parts of central and east Texas by afternoon. As large-scale ascent increases across the southern Plains, thunderstorm development is expected late Sunday afternoon along and near the moist axis from northeast Texas into east-central Oklahoma. The models are in reasonably good agreement on this. A narrow 15 percent contour has been added along the zone with the greatest severe-weather potential. Sunday night into Monday, an upper-level low is forecast to develop over the central Plains, as the southern extension of the associated trough moves quickly from the Desert Southwest into the southern Plains. New medium-range model forecasts are more aggressive with moisture return across the western and central Gulf Coast region. By mid afternoon on Monday, surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the 60s F from the Texas Coastal Plain east-northeastward throughout the lower Mississippi Valley and much of the central Gulf Coast states, with a broad low-level jet developing across the moist sector. In association with the low-level jet, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the day and move east-northeastward across the central Gulf Coast states. Although instability across the moist sector is forecast to remain weak, strong forcing and moderate to strong deep-layer shear will likely be favorable for severe storms. At this time, the lack of instability suggests there is uncertainty concerning how large the severe-threat area will be. Have added a 15 percent contour in the area where confidence is the greatest. ...Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8... From Tuesday to Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to move from the Mississippi Valley to the Eastern Seaboard. Thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday along parts of the Eastern Seaboard ahead of a fast-moving cold front. Surface high pressure is expected to move into much of the central and eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday. The associated dry airmass would limit thunderstorm potential in most areas across the continental U.S. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5... A well-defined 80 to 100 kt mid-level jet will translate quickly southeastward across the Desert Southwest on Sunday. As a result, a rapid deepening of an upper-level trough is expected over the Rockies. The exit region of the jet is forecast to overspread the southern Plains on Sunday, with moisture return taking place across the southern Plains. Surface dewpoints should reach the 60s F across parts of central and east Texas by afternoon. As large-scale ascent increases across the southern Plains, thunderstorm development is expected late Sunday afternoon along and near the moist axis from northeast Texas into east-central Oklahoma. The models are in reasonably good agreement on this. A narrow 15 percent contour has been added along the zone with the greatest severe-weather potential. Sunday night into Monday, an upper-level low is forecast to develop over the central Plains, as the southern extension of the associated trough moves quickly from the Desert Southwest into the southern Plains. New medium-range model forecasts are more aggressive with moisture return across the western and central Gulf Coast region. By mid afternoon on Monday, surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the 60s F from the Texas Coastal Plain east-northeastward throughout the lower Mississippi Valley and much of the central Gulf Coast states, with a broad low-level jet developing across the moist sector. In association with the low-level jet, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the day and move east-northeastward across the central Gulf Coast states. Although instability across the moist sector is forecast to remain weak, strong forcing and moderate to strong deep-layer shear will likely be favorable for severe storms. At this time, the lack of instability suggests there is uncertainty concerning how large the severe-threat area will be. Have added a 15 percent contour in the area where confidence is the greatest. ...Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8... From Tuesday to Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to move from the Mississippi Valley to the Eastern Seaboard. Thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday along parts of the Eastern Seaboard ahead of a fast-moving cold front. Surface high pressure is expected to move into much of the central and eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday. The associated dry airmass would limit thunderstorm potential in most areas across the continental U.S. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5... A well-defined 80 to 100 kt mid-level jet will translate quickly southeastward across the Desert Southwest on Sunday. As a result, a rapid deepening of an upper-level trough is expected over the Rockies. The exit region of the jet is forecast to overspread the southern Plains on Sunday, with moisture return taking place across the southern Plains. Surface dewpoints should reach the 60s F across parts of central and east Texas by afternoon. As large-scale ascent increases across the southern Plains, thunderstorm development is expected late Sunday afternoon along and near the moist axis from northeast Texas into east-central Oklahoma. The models are in reasonably good agreement on this. A narrow 15 percent contour has been added along the zone with the greatest severe-weather potential. Sunday night into Monday, an upper-level low is forecast to develop over the central Plains, as the southern extension of the associated trough moves quickly from the Desert Southwest into the southern Plains. New medium-range model forecasts are more aggressive with moisture return across the western and central Gulf Coast region. By mid afternoon on Monday, surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the 60s F from the Texas Coastal Plain east-northeastward throughout the lower Mississippi Valley and much of the central Gulf Coast states, with a broad low-level jet developing across the moist sector. In association with the low-level jet, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the day and move east-northeastward across the central Gulf Coast states. Although instability across the moist sector is forecast to remain weak, strong forcing and moderate to strong deep-layer shear will likely be favorable for severe storms. At this time, the lack of instability suggests there is uncertainty concerning how large the severe-threat area will be. Have added a 15 percent contour in the area where confidence is the greatest. ...Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8... From Tuesday to Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to move from the Mississippi Valley to the Eastern Seaboard. Thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday along parts of the Eastern Seaboard ahead of a fast-moving cold front. Surface high pressure is expected to move into much of the central and eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday. The associated dry airmass would limit thunderstorm potential in most areas across the continental U.S. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday and Saturday night along parts of the West Coast, across parts of the Four Corners and Desert Southwest, in parts of the southern and central High Plains, and in southeast Florida. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move into central California on Saturday, with another trough moving into the Pacific Northwest Saturday night. As these two troughs move inland, isolated thunderstorms will be possible. Another shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Four Corners Saturday afternoon to the southern Rockies Saturday night. Along and ahead the trough, thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and early evening from near the Mogollon Rim eastward into central and northern New Mexico. Thunderstorms may also develop Saturday night near the axis of a low-level jet from west Texas to western Kansas. Isolated thunderstorms could also develop in southeast Florida. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Saturday and Saturday night. ..Broyles.. 11/16/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday and Saturday night along parts of the West Coast, across parts of the Four Corners and Desert Southwest, in parts of the southern and central High Plains, and in southeast Florida. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move into central California on Saturday, with another trough moving into the Pacific Northwest Saturday night. As these two troughs move inland, isolated thunderstorms will be possible. Another shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Four Corners Saturday afternoon to the southern Rockies Saturday night. Along and ahead the trough, thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and early evening from near the Mogollon Rim eastward into central and northern New Mexico. Thunderstorms may also develop Saturday night near the axis of a low-level jet from west Texas to western Kansas. Isolated thunderstorms could also develop in southeast Florida. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Saturday and Saturday night. ..Broyles.. 11/16/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday and Saturday night along parts of the West Coast, across parts of the Four Corners and Desert Southwest, in parts of the southern and central High Plains, and in southeast Florida. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move into central California on Saturday, with another trough moving into the Pacific Northwest Saturday night. As these two troughs move inland, isolated thunderstorms will be possible. Another shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Four Corners Saturday afternoon to the southern Rockies Saturday night. Along and ahead the trough, thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and early evening from near the Mogollon Rim eastward into central and northern New Mexico. Thunderstorms may also develop Saturday night near the axis of a low-level jet from west Texas to western Kansas. Isolated thunderstorms could also develop in southeast Florida. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Saturday and Saturday night. ..Broyles.. 11/16/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday and Saturday night along parts of the West Coast, across parts of the Four Corners and Desert Southwest, in parts of the southern and central High Plains, and in southeast Florida. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move into central California on Saturday, with another trough moving into the Pacific Northwest Saturday night. As these two troughs move inland, isolated thunderstorms will be possible. Another shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Four Corners Saturday afternoon to the southern Rockies Saturday night. Along and ahead the trough, thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and early evening from near the Mogollon Rim eastward into central and northern New Mexico. Thunderstorms may also develop Saturday night near the axis of a low-level jet from west Texas to western Kansas. Isolated thunderstorms could also develop in southeast Florida. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Saturday and Saturday night. ..Broyles.. 11/16/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday and Saturday night along parts of the West Coast, across parts of the Four Corners and Desert Southwest, in parts of the southern and central High Plains, and in southeast Florida. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move into central California on Saturday, with another trough moving into the Pacific Northwest Saturday night. As these two troughs move inland, isolated thunderstorms will be possible. Another shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Four Corners Saturday afternoon to the southern Rockies Saturday night. Along and ahead the trough, thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and early evening from near the Mogollon Rim eastward into central and northern New Mexico. Thunderstorms may also develop Saturday night near the axis of a low-level jet from west Texas to western Kansas. Isolated thunderstorms could also develop in southeast Florida. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Saturday and Saturday night. ..Broyles.. 11/16/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday and Saturday night along parts of the West Coast, across parts of the Four Corners and Desert Southwest, in parts of the southern and central High Plains, and in southeast Florida. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move into central California on Saturday, with another trough moving into the Pacific Northwest Saturday night. As these two troughs move inland, isolated thunderstorms will be possible. Another shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Four Corners Saturday afternoon to the southern Rockies Saturday night. Along and ahead the trough, thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and early evening from near the Mogollon Rim eastward into central and northern New Mexico. Thunderstorms may also develop Saturday night near the axis of a low-level jet from west Texas to western Kansas. Isolated thunderstorms could also develop in southeast Florida. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Saturday and Saturday night. ..Broyles.. 11/16/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Friday across the country. The surface low currently deepening over the northern High Plains is forecast to weaken through the day Friday as it lifts to the east/northeast into eastern Canada. An attendant cold front will continue to push east with the surface low (reaching from the Great Lakes to southeast TX by late Friday), but the weakening of the low, combined with surface pressure rises across the central Plains, will result in muted gradient winds compared to today/Thursday. Additionally, cooler temperatures should overspread much of the Plains where fuels are somewhat dry, limiting diurnal RH reductions. Consequently, fire weather concerns are expected to be fairly limited. ..Moore.. 11/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Friday across the country. The surface low currently deepening over the northern High Plains is forecast to weaken through the day Friday as it lifts to the east/northeast into eastern Canada. An attendant cold front will continue to push east with the surface low (reaching from the Great Lakes to southeast TX by late Friday), but the weakening of the low, combined with surface pressure rises across the central Plains, will result in muted gradient winds compared to today/Thursday. Additionally, cooler temperatures should overspread much of the Plains where fuels are somewhat dry, limiting diurnal RH reductions. Consequently, fire weather concerns are expected to be fairly limited. ..Moore.. 11/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Friday across the country. The surface low currently deepening over the northern High Plains is forecast to weaken through the day Friday as it lifts to the east/northeast into eastern Canada. An attendant cold front will continue to push east with the surface low (reaching from the Great Lakes to southeast TX by late Friday), but the weakening of the low, combined with surface pressure rises across the central Plains, will result in muted gradient winds compared to today/Thursday. Additionally, cooler temperatures should overspread much of the Plains where fuels are somewhat dry, limiting diurnal RH reductions. Consequently, fire weather concerns are expected to be fairly limited. ..Moore.. 11/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more