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Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 19 2023 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 192034 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132023 2100 UTC TUE SEP 19 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 121.0W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 121.0W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 120.5W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.4N 122.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.9N 124.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.4N 125.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.4N 126.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.0N 127.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 20.4N 127.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 22.3N 128.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 121.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/PASCH

Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 19 2023 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 192034 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kenneth Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 19 2023 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO ELEVENTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2023 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 121.0W ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kenneth was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 121.0 West. Kenneth is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected during the next day or two. A turn to the northwest or north-northwest is expected on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. A weakening trend is forecast to begin on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO ELEVENTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2023 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON... As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Sep 19 the center of Kenneth was located near 15.1, -121.0 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...THE TEXAS BIG COUNTRY...AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very hail and damaging gusts are possible today and tonight across portions of Oklahoma and the Texas Big Country into north-central Texas. ...20Z Update... ...Much of OK into TX Big Country and North TX... Warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms continue in an arc from north-central OK into north-central TX. Temperatures immediately west of the this arc are in the low 80s, increasing into the upper 80s and low 90s farther west across western OK and adjacent portions of the TX Panhandle. This warming is expected to continue, fostering further destabilization ahead a subtle shortwave moving across the TX/OK Panhandles. Consequently, as outlined in the previous forecast, re-development is still anticipated across western OK and northwest TX later this afternoon/evening. These storms will then track eastward/northeastward into more of central OK and north-central TX. Moderate northwesterly flow aloft will contribute to 45-50 kt of effective shear, supporting the potential for organized updrafts capable of large to very large hail. Damaging gusts are possible with this activity as well, particularly if upscale growth into a forward-propagating line occurs. ..Mosier.. 09/19/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023/ ...OK/North TX... Morning water vapor imagery loop shows multiple subtle mid-level vorticity maxima moving across the central Plains. The primary system is currently over southwest/south-central KS, and aided in rather widespread convection overnight across OK/KS. The back edge of stronger forcing associated with this feature is over western OK, with clear skies and southerly low-level winds back in place. By mid/late afternoon, strong heating will lead to a corridor of moderate CAPE across western OK into western North TX. A consensus of CAMS develop scattered thunderstorms along this axis, with storms persisting for a few hours and tracking into central OK and north-central TX. Forecast soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-50 knots of effective shear. This will support supercells capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. An isolated tornado or two is also possible. Model guidance is also consistent in developing storms in north-central OK this afternoon, just ahead of the upper system over KS. This area will see less heating/destabilization than farther south, but could also see a cluster of intense storms that move across northeast OK. Damaging winds and hail would be the main threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...THE TEXAS BIG COUNTRY...AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very hail and damaging gusts are possible today and tonight across portions of Oklahoma and the Texas Big Country into north-central Texas. ...20Z Update... ...Much of OK into TX Big Country and North TX... Warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms continue in an arc from north-central OK into north-central TX. Temperatures immediately west of the this arc are in the low 80s, increasing into the upper 80s and low 90s farther west across western OK and adjacent portions of the TX Panhandle. This warming is expected to continue, fostering further destabilization ahead a subtle shortwave moving across the TX/OK Panhandles. Consequently, as outlined in the previous forecast, re-development is still anticipated across western OK and northwest TX later this afternoon/evening. These storms will then track eastward/northeastward into more of central OK and north-central TX. Moderate northwesterly flow aloft will contribute to 45-50 kt of effective shear, supporting the potential for organized updrafts capable of large to very large hail. Damaging gusts are possible with this activity as well, particularly if upscale growth into a forward-propagating line occurs. ..Mosier.. 09/19/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023/ ...OK/North TX... Morning water vapor imagery loop shows multiple subtle mid-level vorticity maxima moving across the central Plains. The primary system is currently over southwest/south-central KS, and aided in rather widespread convection overnight across OK/KS. The back edge of stronger forcing associated with this feature is over western OK, with clear skies and southerly low-level winds back in place. By mid/late afternoon, strong heating will lead to a corridor of moderate CAPE across western OK into western North TX. A consensus of CAMS develop scattered thunderstorms along this axis, with storms persisting for a few hours and tracking into central OK and north-central TX. Forecast soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-50 knots of effective shear. This will support supercells capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. An isolated tornado or two is also possible. Model guidance is also consistent in developing storms in north-central OK this afternoon, just ahead of the upper system over KS. This area will see less heating/destabilization than farther south, but could also see a cluster of intense storms that move across northeast OK. Damaging winds and hail would be the main threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...THE TEXAS BIG COUNTRY...AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very hail and damaging gusts are possible today and tonight across portions of Oklahoma and the Texas Big Country into north-central Texas. ...20Z Update... ...Much of OK into TX Big Country and North TX... Warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms continue in an arc from north-central OK into north-central TX. Temperatures immediately west of the this arc are in the low 80s, increasing into the upper 80s and low 90s farther west across western OK and adjacent portions of the TX Panhandle. This warming is expected to continue, fostering further destabilization ahead a subtle shortwave moving across the TX/OK Panhandles. Consequently, as outlined in the previous forecast, re-development is still anticipated across western OK and northwest TX later this afternoon/evening. These storms will then track eastward/northeastward into more of central OK and north-central TX. Moderate northwesterly flow aloft will contribute to 45-50 kt of effective shear, supporting the potential for organized updrafts capable of large to very large hail. Damaging gusts are possible with this activity as well, particularly if upscale growth into a forward-propagating line occurs. ..Mosier.. 09/19/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023/ ...OK/North TX... Morning water vapor imagery loop shows multiple subtle mid-level vorticity maxima moving across the central Plains. The primary system is currently over southwest/south-central KS, and aided in rather widespread convection overnight across OK/KS. The back edge of stronger forcing associated with this feature is over western OK, with clear skies and southerly low-level winds back in place. By mid/late afternoon, strong heating will lead to a corridor of moderate CAPE across western OK into western North TX. A consensus of CAMS develop scattered thunderstorms along this axis, with storms persisting for a few hours and tracking into central OK and north-central TX. Forecast soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-50 knots of effective shear. This will support supercells capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. An isolated tornado or two is also possible. Model guidance is also consistent in developing storms in north-central OK this afternoon, just ahead of the upper system over KS. This area will see less heating/destabilization than farther south, but could also see a cluster of intense storms that move across northeast OK. Damaging winds and hail would be the main threat. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z An Elevated area was added for portions of northern CA (including the northern/northwestern Sacramento Valley), far south-central OR, and far northwest NV. The latest high-resolution guidance and CANSAC WRF runs have come into reasonably good agreement, depicting the development of around 15 mph sustained northerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 25 mph) and 15-25 percent RH during the afternoon/evening hours -- along the southern periphery of the cooler conditions to the north. For the northern/northwestern Sacramento Valley, the best overlap of breezy winds and reduced RH is expected from the evening into the overnight hours, with some uncertainty regarding RH reductions during this time frame. Given modestly receptive fuels across the area and possibly a few holdover fires from recent lightning activity, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 09/19/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0117 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be minimal on Wednesday. A mid-level trough will amplify across the Northwest and bring cool and moist conditions to much of this region. Farther south, dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Great Basin and Southwest as mid-level flow strengthens in the well-mixed environment. However fuels remain green in this region, which should preclude the potential for new large fires. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z An Elevated area was added for portions of northern CA (including the northern/northwestern Sacramento Valley), far south-central OR, and far northwest NV. The latest high-resolution guidance and CANSAC WRF runs have come into reasonably good agreement, depicting the development of around 15 mph sustained northerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 25 mph) and 15-25 percent RH during the afternoon/evening hours -- along the southern periphery of the cooler conditions to the north. For the northern/northwestern Sacramento Valley, the best overlap of breezy winds and reduced RH is expected from the evening into the overnight hours, with some uncertainty regarding RH reductions during this time frame. Given modestly receptive fuels across the area and possibly a few holdover fires from recent lightning activity, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 09/19/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0117 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be minimal on Wednesday. A mid-level trough will amplify across the Northwest and bring cool and moist conditions to much of this region. Farther south, dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Great Basin and Southwest as mid-level flow strengthens in the well-mixed environment. However fuels remain green in this region, which should preclude the potential for new large fires. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z An Elevated area was added for portions of northern CA (including the northern/northwestern Sacramento Valley), far south-central OR, and far northwest NV. The latest high-resolution guidance and CANSAC WRF runs have come into reasonably good agreement, depicting the development of around 15 mph sustained northerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 25 mph) and 15-25 percent RH during the afternoon/evening hours -- along the southern periphery of the cooler conditions to the north. For the northern/northwestern Sacramento Valley, the best overlap of breezy winds and reduced RH is expected from the evening into the overnight hours, with some uncertainty regarding RH reductions during this time frame. Given modestly receptive fuels across the area and possibly a few holdover fires from recent lightning activity, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 09/19/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0117 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be minimal on Wednesday. A mid-level trough will amplify across the Northwest and bring cool and moist conditions to much of this region. Farther south, dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Great Basin and Southwest as mid-level flow strengthens in the well-mixed environment. However fuels remain green in this region, which should preclude the potential for new large fires. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191728
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 19 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Thirteen-E, located several hundred miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Texas pumpkin growers have had vines damaged by heat and drought. some vines died early, and yield was lower than usual. The lack of rainfall led some farmers to replant their crops and irrigate. About 5,000 to 8,000 acres are planted annually in Texas, with 90% in the west Texas region. Midland Reporter-Telegram (Texas), Sept 15, 2023

The lack of rainfall made farming difficult for a farmer near Daphne. Cotton and peanuts are hardest to harvest when rain is scarce. The farmer fears that the grades on peanuts and cotton will be down. WKRG Online (Mobile, Ala.), Sept 18, 2023

The record heat and lack of rain in Louisiana this summer has dried the clay soil and cracked burrows housing crawfish which are dormant during the intense summer heat. Farmers have had to pump more water than usual onto their rice fields to try to keep the burrows moist, but it is unclear how successful they have been in keeping the crawfish alive. Farmers usually begin flooding their fields for crawfish later in September and throughout October. It will be apparent then how many crawfish survived. Excessive pumping and drought can also lead to saltwater intrusion and backflow of saltwater in irrigation canals. The Acadiana Advocate (Lafayette, La.), Sept 17, 2023 Drought was affecting crawfish production in southern Louisiana. The ground is very dry, allowing burrows to crack open, threatening their survival. The dearth of rain has increased the salinity of water sources that producers use to flood their ponds. There were also concerns about whether the crawfish will have enough food this winter as drought dries up rice, grasses and other forages. LSU AgCenter (Baton Rouge, La.), Aug 29, 2023

No watches are valid as of Mon Sep 18 22:31:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Sep 18 22:31:02 UTC 2023.

A popular wildflower farm in Hancock County will remain closed through September after drought kept flowers from growing. By Sept. 1, stalks are usually waist-high, but were just knee-high at most. The farm typically has fields of sunflowers, zinnias, poppies and daisies. Recent showers dampened the ground, so there is hope that surviving seeds might sprout and the farm could open in October. The Sun Herald (Biloxi, Miss.), Sept 1, 2023

The Hawaii State Drought Council met on Aug. 30 and discussed drought impacts and mitigation actions. Hawaii News Now (Honolulu, Hawaii), Sept 15, 2023

Dry vegetation on Oahu contributed to a large brush fire near Wahiawa on Aug. 17 and a brush fire near Maili. Hawaii News Now (Honolulu, Hawaii), Sept 15, 2023

Hawaii farmers noted that pasture conditions were poor in the Mauna area and in the Kau district on Hawaii Island. Hawaii News Now (Honolulu, Hawaii), Sept 15, 2023