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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF ALABAMA INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible today mainly over southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and far southern Mississippi. More isolated activity may extend into southern Tennessee and the western Carolinas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move east across the Lower MS Valley today, with a strong midlevel speed max nosing into the TN Valley through 00Z. Coincident with the strengthening mid/upper flow will be a low-level jet increasing to over 50 kt out of the south/southwest. At the surface, a low is forecast to deepen during the day as it moves from MS into TN, with a trough/cold front extending southwestward across central AL by 00Z. Southerly winds will aid moisture return, but heating will be limited except near the front with the overspreading dry slot. The strong winds above the surface will enhance shear and conditionally favor a few supercells, but destabilization, particularly in the low-levels, and timing of the early day storms reduces predictability. ...Southeast... The greatest likelihood of damaging winds and perhaps a couple tornadoes appears to be with storms that will be present early in the day, and travel east along the MS/AL coastal areas and into the FL Panhandle. Substantial morning storms are forecast to be ongoing after 12Z this morning from southeast LA into southern MS and AL, and strong southerly winds off the Gulf of Mexico will lead to moistening and over 500 J/kg SBCAPE in advance of these storms. It is possible these storms propagate eastward relatively quickly, with areas of wind damage potential. In addition, the position of the early day storms will have implications for destabilization to the west and north. As such, a relative minimum in severe potential cannot be ruled out over parts of central AL. Farther north from southern TN into the western Carolinas, the area ahead of the surface low will have wind profiles favorable for supercells, but this will be highly conditional on destabilization prior to the cold front passage. Dewpoints to around 60 F may stop just south of the TN/AL/GA border, with SBCAPE of a few hundred J/kg possible just ahead of the cold front. Low-level lapse rates are forecast to remain relatively poor, and this may mitigate overall tornado potential. However, a brief tornado or two may still occur across the area during the late afternoon or early evening, should a corridor of heating develop. ..Jewell/Wendt.. 01/27/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... For Sunday, a similar weather pattern to Saturday will continue. Surface high pressure will be maintained across the West and Plains with some expansion into the Midwest and Southeast expected. Winds are expected to be lighter and RH will remain above critical thresholds for most areas. Fire weather concerns will remain minimal across the CONUS. ..Wendt.. 01/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... For Sunday, a similar weather pattern to Saturday will continue. Surface high pressure will be maintained across the West and Plains with some expansion into the Midwest and Southeast expected. Winds are expected to be lighter and RH will remain above critical thresholds for most areas. Fire weather concerns will remain minimal across the CONUS. ..Wendt.. 01/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... For Sunday, a similar weather pattern to Saturday will continue. Surface high pressure will be maintained across the West and Plains with some expansion into the Midwest and Southeast expected. Winds are expected to be lighter and RH will remain above critical thresholds for most areas. Fire weather concerns will remain minimal across the CONUS. ..Wendt.. 01/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will be present over much of the West and the Plains. Cooler temperatures in combination with generally unreceptive fuels will keep fire weather concerns minimal across the CONUS today. ..Wendt.. 01/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will be present over much of the West and the Plains. Cooler temperatures in combination with generally unreceptive fuels will keep fire weather concerns minimal across the CONUS today. ..Wendt.. 01/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will be present over much of the West and the Plains. Cooler temperatures in combination with generally unreceptive fuels will keep fire weather concerns minimal across the CONUS today. ..Wendt.. 01/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SABINE VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible through early Saturday morning from the lower Sabine Valley into southwest Mississippi. ...Sabine Valley across LA and into southern MS... Scattered elevated storms persist this evening within the low-level warm air advection regime, with the primary surface boundary over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Several cells have had indications of hail, with elevated CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. As the upper trough moves across TX and toward the lower MS Valley tonight, large-scale ascent will increase with additional storms likely over much of LA into southern MS. Forecast soundings indicate the boundary layer may remain relatively cool and saturated, which may tend to limit the northward extent of any isolated tornado risk. As such, the greatest risk of a supercell and tornado will conditionally be over southern LA and far southern MS in closer proximity to better surface-based potential. Otherwise, cells may continue to produce marginally severe hail at times through tonight. ..Jewell.. 01/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SABINE VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible through early Saturday morning from the lower Sabine Valley into southwest Mississippi. ...Sabine Valley across LA and into southern MS... Scattered elevated storms persist this evening within the low-level warm air advection regime, with the primary surface boundary over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Several cells have had indications of hail, with elevated CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. As the upper trough moves across TX and toward the lower MS Valley tonight, large-scale ascent will increase with additional storms likely over much of LA into southern MS. Forecast soundings indicate the boundary layer may remain relatively cool and saturated, which may tend to limit the northward extent of any isolated tornado risk. As such, the greatest risk of a supercell and tornado will conditionally be over southern LA and far southern MS in closer proximity to better surface-based potential. Otherwise, cells may continue to produce marginally severe hail at times through tonight. ..Jewell.. 01/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SABINE VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible through early Saturday morning from the lower Sabine Valley into southwest Mississippi. ...Sabine Valley across LA and into southern MS... Scattered elevated storms persist this evening within the low-level warm air advection regime, with the primary surface boundary over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Several cells have had indications of hail, with elevated CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. As the upper trough moves across TX and toward the lower MS Valley tonight, large-scale ascent will increase with additional storms likely over much of LA into southern MS. Forecast soundings indicate the boundary layer may remain relatively cool and saturated, which may tend to limit the northward extent of any isolated tornado risk. As such, the greatest risk of a supercell and tornado will conditionally be over southern LA and far southern MS in closer proximity to better surface-based potential. Otherwise, cells may continue to produce marginally severe hail at times through tonight. ..Jewell.. 01/27/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Jan 26 23:04:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jan 26 23:04:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Fire weather potential appears limited for the extended period. A high-amplitude upper ridge currently in place along the West Coast will slowly migrate east over the next several days as the upper wave currently over the southern Plains drifts east/northeast. This synoptic regime will favor persistent rain/snow chances along the West Coast, but dry conditions across much of the interior U.S. - especially over the Plains where some locations have seen limited rainfall over the past 1-2 weeks. Some fuel drying is probable, and appears most likely to occur across the central/northern High Plains where the winter snow pack is somewhat patchy and temperatures are forecast to be well above average for late January. However, the presence of the upper ridge will modulate surface pressure gradients, limiting the potential for strong winds. Precipitation chances should return to the central U.S. by the end of the upcoming work week/next weekend. Long-range ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in this scenario, suggesting low potential for critical fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 01/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Fire weather potential appears limited for the extended period. A high-amplitude upper ridge currently in place along the West Coast will slowly migrate east over the next several days as the upper wave currently over the southern Plains drifts east/northeast. This synoptic regime will favor persistent rain/snow chances along the West Coast, but dry conditions across much of the interior U.S. - especially over the Plains where some locations have seen limited rainfall over the past 1-2 weeks. Some fuel drying is probable, and appears most likely to occur across the central/northern High Plains where the winter snow pack is somewhat patchy and temperatures are forecast to be well above average for late January. However, the presence of the upper ridge will modulate surface pressure gradients, limiting the potential for strong winds. Precipitation chances should return to the central U.S. by the end of the upcoming work week/next weekend. Long-range ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in this scenario, suggesting low potential for critical fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 01/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Fire weather potential appears limited for the extended period. A high-amplitude upper ridge currently in place along the West Coast will slowly migrate east over the next several days as the upper wave currently over the southern Plains drifts east/northeast. This synoptic regime will favor persistent rain/snow chances along the West Coast, but dry conditions across much of the interior U.S. - especially over the Plains where some locations have seen limited rainfall over the past 1-2 weeks. Some fuel drying is probable, and appears most likely to occur across the central/northern High Plains where the winter snow pack is somewhat patchy and temperatures are forecast to be well above average for late January. However, the presence of the upper ridge will modulate surface pressure gradients, limiting the potential for strong winds. Precipitation chances should return to the central U.S. by the end of the upcoming work week/next weekend. Long-range ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in this scenario, suggesting low potential for critical fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 01/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Fire weather potential appears limited for the extended period. A high-amplitude upper ridge currently in place along the West Coast will slowly migrate east over the next several days as the upper wave currently over the southern Plains drifts east/northeast. This synoptic regime will favor persistent rain/snow chances along the West Coast, but dry conditions across much of the interior U.S. - especially over the Plains where some locations have seen limited rainfall over the past 1-2 weeks. Some fuel drying is probable, and appears most likely to occur across the central/northern High Plains where the winter snow pack is somewhat patchy and temperatures are forecast to be well above average for late January. However, the presence of the upper ridge will modulate surface pressure gradients, limiting the potential for strong winds. Precipitation chances should return to the central U.S. by the end of the upcoming work week/next weekend. Long-range ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in this scenario, suggesting low potential for critical fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 01/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Fire weather potential appears limited for the extended period. A high-amplitude upper ridge currently in place along the West Coast will slowly migrate east over the next several days as the upper wave currently over the southern Plains drifts east/northeast. This synoptic regime will favor persistent rain/snow chances along the West Coast, but dry conditions across much of the interior U.S. - especially over the Plains where some locations have seen limited rainfall over the past 1-2 weeks. Some fuel drying is probable, and appears most likely to occur across the central/northern High Plains where the winter snow pack is somewhat patchy and temperatures are forecast to be well above average for late January. However, the presence of the upper ridge will modulate surface pressure gradients, limiting the potential for strong winds. Precipitation chances should return to the central U.S. by the end of the upcoming work week/next weekend. Long-range ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in this scenario, suggesting low potential for critical fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 01/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRE-DAWN SATURDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible early Saturday morning over parts of Louisiana and southern Mississippi. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly northeastward based on the latest short-term guidance, but otherwise no major changes have been made. A line of storms is expected to develop across parts of LA overnight and spread eastward, with some threat for locally damaging wind and possibly a tornado. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 01/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024/ ...Southeast states today... Recent radar and satellite imagery shows multiple clusters of showers and thunderstorms occurring over the central Gulf of Mexico. This activity will continue through the day, with only weak forcing and minimal destabilization occurring inland across the Gulf coast states and Carolinas. Isolated thunderstorms are possible in this area, but coverage is expected to be quite limited. ...LA/MS early Saturday morning... Later in the forecast period, strong low-level cyclogenesis is forecast across the Arklatex region as the primary upper trough approaches from the west. Strengthening low-level wind fields will enhance warm advection and lift, resulting in scattered thunderstorms after midnight. Morning model guidance suggests the potential for the intensification/organization of a line of convection along the strengthening cold front over LA/MS after 09z. Forecast soundings indicate near-surface-based convection and strong vertical shear profiles - posing some risk of gusty/damaging winds or perhaps a tornado after 09z. Therefore have added a small MRGL risk area to cover this scenario. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRE-DAWN SATURDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible early Saturday morning over parts of Louisiana and southern Mississippi. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly northeastward based on the latest short-term guidance, but otherwise no major changes have been made. A line of storms is expected to develop across parts of LA overnight and spread eastward, with some threat for locally damaging wind and possibly a tornado. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 01/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024/ ...Southeast states today... Recent radar and satellite imagery shows multiple clusters of showers and thunderstorms occurring over the central Gulf of Mexico. This activity will continue through the day, with only weak forcing and minimal destabilization occurring inland across the Gulf coast states and Carolinas. Isolated thunderstorms are possible in this area, but coverage is expected to be quite limited. ...LA/MS early Saturday morning... Later in the forecast period, strong low-level cyclogenesis is forecast across the Arklatex region as the primary upper trough approaches from the west. Strengthening low-level wind fields will enhance warm advection and lift, resulting in scattered thunderstorms after midnight. Morning model guidance suggests the potential for the intensification/organization of a line of convection along the strengthening cold front over LA/MS after 09z. Forecast soundings indicate near-surface-based convection and strong vertical shear profiles - posing some risk of gusty/damaging winds or perhaps a tornado after 09z. Therefore have added a small MRGL risk area to cover this scenario. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRE-DAWN SATURDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible early Saturday morning over parts of Louisiana and southern Mississippi. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly northeastward based on the latest short-term guidance, but otherwise no major changes have been made. A line of storms is expected to develop across parts of LA overnight and spread eastward, with some threat for locally damaging wind and possibly a tornado. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 01/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024/ ...Southeast states today... Recent radar and satellite imagery shows multiple clusters of showers and thunderstorms occurring over the central Gulf of Mexico. This activity will continue through the day, with only weak forcing and minimal destabilization occurring inland across the Gulf coast states and Carolinas. Isolated thunderstorms are possible in this area, but coverage is expected to be quite limited. ...LA/MS early Saturday morning... Later in the forecast period, strong low-level cyclogenesis is forecast across the Arklatex region as the primary upper trough approaches from the west. Strengthening low-level wind fields will enhance warm advection and lift, resulting in scattered thunderstorms after midnight. Morning model guidance suggests the potential for the intensification/organization of a line of convection along the strengthening cold front over LA/MS after 09z. Forecast soundings indicate near-surface-based convection and strong vertical shear profiles - posing some risk of gusty/damaging winds or perhaps a tornado after 09z. Therefore have added a small MRGL risk area to cover this scenario. Read more