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No watches are valid as of Sun Feb 18 23:04:02 UTC 2024.

MD 0153 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 0153 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Areas affected...Northern New York Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 182301Z - 190300Z SUMMARY...Periodic snow squalls will be possible in the coming hours as a cold front approaches northern New York. DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar composites and surface observations show a persistent snow band moving east across southeast Ontario. This band is primarily being driven by ascent along a cold front - likely through a shallow layer from the surface to around 700 mb where lapse rates are on the order of 7 C/km based on recent RAP mesoanalyses and forecast soundings. The snow band/cold front is expected to continue to push east into upstate NY within the next few hours. The combination of persistent frontal ascent, steep low-level lapse rates, and 25-30 mph wind gusts (which have been observed across southeast Ontario with the passage of the band/front) suggests snow squall conditions will be possible. Snow squall potential will likely be greatest along the eastern shores of Lake Ontario with diminishing confidence in snow squall potential with east/southeastern extent as low-level lapse rates begin to diminish due to the onset of nocturnal cooling. ..Moore.. 02/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 42747618 42677673 42737739 43037864 43187890 43357895 43527872 43507764 43587718 43747689 44307641 44787553 44977489 44977457 44757421 44577407 44287405 43117527 42887565 42747618 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Feb 18 22:22:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Periods of dry and windy conditions will be possible through the extended period D3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday, with some drying of fuels anticipated across the southern High Plains (especially on D4/Wednesday). Fire weather highlights will largely depend on the status of fuels, which remain too marginal at this time for inclusion of probabilities within D3-8 period. On D3/Tuesday, midlevel west-southwesterly flow will strengthen across the central/southern Rockies ahead of an approaching large-scale trough in the Pacific. Increasing downslope flow will produce dry/windy conditions across the southern High Plains. While drying has been observed in fuels across far western Texas, the overall marginal state of fuels across much of the southern Plains will preclude probabilities at this time. On D4/Wednesday, the Pacific trough will move inland across the western US, with enhanced flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. As a result, lee cyclogenesis will favor strong westerly surface winds and low RH across the southern High Plains. Poor recovery is likely overnight D4/Wednesday - D5/Thursday across southwestern and far western Texas, with breezy post frontal northwesterly flow overlapping elevated to critical relative humidity again Thursday afternoon. Elevated to perhaps critical meteorological conditions are possible both D5/Wednesday and D6/Thursday. Confidence in supportive fuels (with mainly marginal fuels over the area) limits confidence in a Critical fire-weather event. Therefore, Critical probabilities have been withheld, though fuel trends leading up to D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday will be monitored. An upper-level ridge will build in across the western US with downstream troughing across the east D6-Friday through D8-Sunday. Surface high pressure across the central US will keep winds generally light where the driest conditions are expected in the central and southern high Plains. ..Thornton.. 02/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Periods of dry and windy conditions will be possible through the extended period D3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday, with some drying of fuels anticipated across the southern High Plains (especially on D4/Wednesday). Fire weather highlights will largely depend on the status of fuels, which remain too marginal at this time for inclusion of probabilities within D3-8 period. On D3/Tuesday, midlevel west-southwesterly flow will strengthen across the central/southern Rockies ahead of an approaching large-scale trough in the Pacific. Increasing downslope flow will produce dry/windy conditions across the southern High Plains. While drying has been observed in fuels across far western Texas, the overall marginal state of fuels across much of the southern Plains will preclude probabilities at this time. On D4/Wednesday, the Pacific trough will move inland across the western US, with enhanced flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. As a result, lee cyclogenesis will favor strong westerly surface winds and low RH across the southern High Plains. Poor recovery is likely overnight D4/Wednesday - D5/Thursday across southwestern and far western Texas, with breezy post frontal northwesterly flow overlapping elevated to critical relative humidity again Thursday afternoon. Elevated to perhaps critical meteorological conditions are possible both D5/Wednesday and D6/Thursday. Confidence in supportive fuels (with mainly marginal fuels over the area) limits confidence in a Critical fire-weather event. Therefore, Critical probabilities have been withheld, though fuel trends leading up to D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday will be monitored. An upper-level ridge will build in across the western US with downstream troughing across the east D6-Friday through D8-Sunday. Surface high pressure across the central US will keep winds generally light where the driest conditions are expected in the central and southern high Plains. ..Thornton.. 02/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Periods of dry and windy conditions will be possible through the extended period D3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday, with some drying of fuels anticipated across the southern High Plains (especially on D4/Wednesday). Fire weather highlights will largely depend on the status of fuels, which remain too marginal at this time for inclusion of probabilities within D3-8 period. On D3/Tuesday, midlevel west-southwesterly flow will strengthen across the central/southern Rockies ahead of an approaching large-scale trough in the Pacific. Increasing downslope flow will produce dry/windy conditions across the southern High Plains. While drying has been observed in fuels across far western Texas, the overall marginal state of fuels across much of the southern Plains will preclude probabilities at this time. On D4/Wednesday, the Pacific trough will move inland across the western US, with enhanced flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. As a result, lee cyclogenesis will favor strong westerly surface winds and low RH across the southern High Plains. Poor recovery is likely overnight D4/Wednesday - D5/Thursday across southwestern and far western Texas, with breezy post frontal northwesterly flow overlapping elevated to critical relative humidity again Thursday afternoon. Elevated to perhaps critical meteorological conditions are possible both D5/Wednesday and D6/Thursday. Confidence in supportive fuels (with mainly marginal fuels over the area) limits confidence in a Critical fire-weather event. Therefore, Critical probabilities have been withheld, though fuel trends leading up to D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday will be monitored. An upper-level ridge will build in across the western US with downstream troughing across the east D6-Friday through D8-Sunday. Surface high pressure across the central US will keep winds generally light where the driest conditions are expected in the central and southern high Plains. ..Thornton.. 02/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Periods of dry and windy conditions will be possible through the extended period D3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday, with some drying of fuels anticipated across the southern High Plains (especially on D4/Wednesday). Fire weather highlights will largely depend on the status of fuels, which remain too marginal at this time for inclusion of probabilities within D3-8 period. On D3/Tuesday, midlevel west-southwesterly flow will strengthen across the central/southern Rockies ahead of an approaching large-scale trough in the Pacific. Increasing downslope flow will produce dry/windy conditions across the southern High Plains. While drying has been observed in fuels across far western Texas, the overall marginal state of fuels across much of the southern Plains will preclude probabilities at this time. On D4/Wednesday, the Pacific trough will move inland across the western US, with enhanced flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. As a result, lee cyclogenesis will favor strong westerly surface winds and low RH across the southern High Plains. Poor recovery is likely overnight D4/Wednesday - D5/Thursday across southwestern and far western Texas, with breezy post frontal northwesterly flow overlapping elevated to critical relative humidity again Thursday afternoon. Elevated to perhaps critical meteorological conditions are possible both D5/Wednesday and D6/Thursday. Confidence in supportive fuels (with mainly marginal fuels over the area) limits confidence in a Critical fire-weather event. Therefore, Critical probabilities have been withheld, though fuel trends leading up to D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday will be monitored. An upper-level ridge will build in across the western US with downstream troughing across the east D6-Friday through D8-Sunday. Surface high pressure across the central US will keep winds generally light where the driest conditions are expected in the central and southern high Plains. ..Thornton.. 02/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Periods of dry and windy conditions will be possible through the extended period D3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday, with some drying of fuels anticipated across the southern High Plains (especially on D4/Wednesday). Fire weather highlights will largely depend on the status of fuels, which remain too marginal at this time for inclusion of probabilities within D3-8 period. On D3/Tuesday, midlevel west-southwesterly flow will strengthen across the central/southern Rockies ahead of an approaching large-scale trough in the Pacific. Increasing downslope flow will produce dry/windy conditions across the southern High Plains. While drying has been observed in fuels across far western Texas, the overall marginal state of fuels across much of the southern Plains will preclude probabilities at this time. On D4/Wednesday, the Pacific trough will move inland across the western US, with enhanced flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. As a result, lee cyclogenesis will favor strong westerly surface winds and low RH across the southern High Plains. Poor recovery is likely overnight D4/Wednesday - D5/Thursday across southwestern and far western Texas, with breezy post frontal northwesterly flow overlapping elevated to critical relative humidity again Thursday afternoon. Elevated to perhaps critical meteorological conditions are possible both D5/Wednesday and D6/Thursday. Confidence in supportive fuels (with mainly marginal fuels over the area) limits confidence in a Critical fire-weather event. Therefore, Critical probabilities have been withheld, though fuel trends leading up to D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday will be monitored. An upper-level ridge will build in across the western US with downstream troughing across the east D6-Friday through D8-Sunday. Surface high pressure across the central US will keep winds generally light where the driest conditions are expected in the central and southern high Plains. ..Thornton.. 02/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Periods of dry and windy conditions will be possible through the extended period D3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday, with some drying of fuels anticipated across the southern High Plains (especially on D4/Wednesday). Fire weather highlights will largely depend on the status of fuels, which remain too marginal at this time for inclusion of probabilities within D3-8 period. On D3/Tuesday, midlevel west-southwesterly flow will strengthen across the central/southern Rockies ahead of an approaching large-scale trough in the Pacific. Increasing downslope flow will produce dry/windy conditions across the southern High Plains. While drying has been observed in fuels across far western Texas, the overall marginal state of fuels across much of the southern Plains will preclude probabilities at this time. On D4/Wednesday, the Pacific trough will move inland across the western US, with enhanced flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. As a result, lee cyclogenesis will favor strong westerly surface winds and low RH across the southern High Plains. Poor recovery is likely overnight D4/Wednesday - D5/Thursday across southwestern and far western Texas, with breezy post frontal northwesterly flow overlapping elevated to critical relative humidity again Thursday afternoon. Elevated to perhaps critical meteorological conditions are possible both D5/Wednesday and D6/Thursday. Confidence in supportive fuels (with mainly marginal fuels over the area) limits confidence in a Critical fire-weather event. Therefore, Critical probabilities have been withheld, though fuel trends leading up to D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday will be monitored. An upper-level ridge will build in across the western US with downstream troughing across the east D6-Friday through D8-Sunday. Surface high pressure across the central US will keep winds generally light where the driest conditions are expected in the central and southern high Plains. ..Thornton.. 02/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, associated with a marginal wind/tornado threat, remain possible across part of south Florida and the Keys for the next few hours. ...20Z Update... A QLCS continues to progress across the southern FL Peninsula as well as portions of the FL Keys. Regional radar data shows occasional bouts of focused low-level rotation associated with line-embedded mesovortices. With 500+ J/kg MLCAPE, 50+ kt effective bulk shear vectors aligned normal to the QLCS line, and over 200 m2/s2 effective SRH present over the Keys and southernmost tip of the FL Peninsula, a couple damaging gusts or a brief tornado remain possible until the QLCS moves offshore over the next couple of hours. ..Squitieri.. 02/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024/ ...South Florida... Current radar imagery shows a line of thunderstorms approaching the lower FL Keys. This line has multiple embedded weak circulations, which should continue through the day as it tracks east-northeastward at 25 knots. Meanwhile, a surface boundary extends across the southern tip of FL and Keys, which should provide some enhancement to low-level shear and convergence. Despite the very small areal nature of the risk, there is some potential for a tornado or damaging winds as these storms track across parts of Monroe, Miami-Dade, and Broward counties FL this afternoon from 18-21z. Please refer to SPC Mesoscale Discussion #151 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, associated with a marginal wind/tornado threat, remain possible across part of south Florida and the Keys for the next few hours. ...20Z Update... A QLCS continues to progress across the southern FL Peninsula as well as portions of the FL Keys. Regional radar data shows occasional bouts of focused low-level rotation associated with line-embedded mesovortices. With 500+ J/kg MLCAPE, 50+ kt effective bulk shear vectors aligned normal to the QLCS line, and over 200 m2/s2 effective SRH present over the Keys and southernmost tip of the FL Peninsula, a couple damaging gusts or a brief tornado remain possible until the QLCS moves offshore over the next couple of hours. ..Squitieri.. 02/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024/ ...South Florida... Current radar imagery shows a line of thunderstorms approaching the lower FL Keys. This line has multiple embedded weak circulations, which should continue through the day as it tracks east-northeastward at 25 knots. Meanwhile, a surface boundary extends across the southern tip of FL and Keys, which should provide some enhancement to low-level shear and convergence. Despite the very small areal nature of the risk, there is some potential for a tornado or damaging winds as these storms track across parts of Monroe, Miami-Dade, and Broward counties FL this afternoon from 18-21z. Please refer to SPC Mesoscale Discussion #151 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, associated with a marginal wind/tornado threat, remain possible across part of south Florida and the Keys for the next few hours. ...20Z Update... A QLCS continues to progress across the southern FL Peninsula as well as portions of the FL Keys. Regional radar data shows occasional bouts of focused low-level rotation associated with line-embedded mesovortices. With 500+ J/kg MLCAPE, 50+ kt effective bulk shear vectors aligned normal to the QLCS line, and over 200 m2/s2 effective SRH present over the Keys and southernmost tip of the FL Peninsula, a couple damaging gusts or a brief tornado remain possible until the QLCS moves offshore over the next couple of hours. ..Squitieri.. 02/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024/ ...South Florida... Current radar imagery shows a line of thunderstorms approaching the lower FL Keys. This line has multiple embedded weak circulations, which should continue through the day as it tracks east-northeastward at 25 knots. Meanwhile, a surface boundary extends across the southern tip of FL and Keys, which should provide some enhancement to low-level shear and convergence. Despite the very small areal nature of the risk, there is some potential for a tornado or damaging winds as these storms track across parts of Monroe, Miami-Dade, and Broward counties FL this afternoon from 18-21z. Please refer to SPC Mesoscale Discussion #151 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, associated with a marginal wind/tornado threat, remain possible across part of south Florida and the Keys for the next few hours. ...20Z Update... A QLCS continues to progress across the southern FL Peninsula as well as portions of the FL Keys. Regional radar data shows occasional bouts of focused low-level rotation associated with line-embedded mesovortices. With 500+ J/kg MLCAPE, 50+ kt effective bulk shear vectors aligned normal to the QLCS line, and over 200 m2/s2 effective SRH present over the Keys and southernmost tip of the FL Peninsula, a couple damaging gusts or a brief tornado remain possible until the QLCS moves offshore over the next couple of hours. ..Squitieri.. 02/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024/ ...South Florida... Current radar imagery shows a line of thunderstorms approaching the lower FL Keys. This line has multiple embedded weak circulations, which should continue through the day as it tracks east-northeastward at 25 knots. Meanwhile, a surface boundary extends across the southern tip of FL and Keys, which should provide some enhancement to low-level shear and convergence. Despite the very small areal nature of the risk, there is some potential for a tornado or damaging winds as these storms track across parts of Monroe, Miami-Dade, and Broward counties FL this afternoon from 18-21z. Please refer to SPC Mesoscale Discussion #151 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, associated with a marginal wind/tornado threat, remain possible across part of south Florida and the Keys for the next few hours. ...20Z Update... A QLCS continues to progress across the southern FL Peninsula as well as portions of the FL Keys. Regional radar data shows occasional bouts of focused low-level rotation associated with line-embedded mesovortices. With 500+ J/kg MLCAPE, 50+ kt effective bulk shear vectors aligned normal to the QLCS line, and over 200 m2/s2 effective SRH present over the Keys and southernmost tip of the FL Peninsula, a couple damaging gusts or a brief tornado remain possible until the QLCS moves offshore over the next couple of hours. ..Squitieri.. 02/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024/ ...South Florida... Current radar imagery shows a line of thunderstorms approaching the lower FL Keys. This line has multiple embedded weak circulations, which should continue through the day as it tracks east-northeastward at 25 knots. Meanwhile, a surface boundary extends across the southern tip of FL and Keys, which should provide some enhancement to low-level shear and convergence. Despite the very small areal nature of the risk, there is some potential for a tornado or damaging winds as these storms track across parts of Monroe, Miami-Dade, and Broward counties FL this afternoon from 18-21z. Please refer to SPC Mesoscale Discussion #151 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, associated with a marginal wind/tornado threat, remain possible across part of south Florida and the Keys for the next few hours. ...20Z Update... A QLCS continues to progress across the southern FL Peninsula as well as portions of the FL Keys. Regional radar data shows occasional bouts of focused low-level rotation associated with line-embedded mesovortices. With 500+ J/kg MLCAPE, 50+ kt effective bulk shear vectors aligned normal to the QLCS line, and over 200 m2/s2 effective SRH present over the Keys and southernmost tip of the FL Peninsula, a couple damaging gusts or a brief tornado remain possible until the QLCS moves offshore over the next couple of hours. ..Squitieri.. 02/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024/ ...South Florida... Current radar imagery shows a line of thunderstorms approaching the lower FL Keys. This line has multiple embedded weak circulations, which should continue through the day as it tracks east-northeastward at 25 knots. Meanwhile, a surface boundary extends across the southern tip of FL and Keys, which should provide some enhancement to low-level shear and convergence. Despite the very small areal nature of the risk, there is some potential for a tornado or damaging winds as these storms track across parts of Monroe, Miami-Dade, and Broward counties FL this afternoon from 18-21z. Please refer to SPC Mesoscale Discussion #151 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, associated with a marginal wind/tornado threat, remain possible across part of south Florida and the Keys for the next few hours. ...20Z Update... A QLCS continues to progress across the southern FL Peninsula as well as portions of the FL Keys. Regional radar data shows occasional bouts of focused low-level rotation associated with line-embedded mesovortices. With 500+ J/kg MLCAPE, 50+ kt effective bulk shear vectors aligned normal to the QLCS line, and over 200 m2/s2 effective SRH present over the Keys and southernmost tip of the FL Peninsula, a couple damaging gusts or a brief tornado remain possible until the QLCS moves offshore over the next couple of hours. ..Squitieri.. 02/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024/ ...South Florida... Current radar imagery shows a line of thunderstorms approaching the lower FL Keys. This line has multiple embedded weak circulations, which should continue through the day as it tracks east-northeastward at 25 knots. Meanwhile, a surface boundary extends across the southern tip of FL and Keys, which should provide some enhancement to low-level shear and convergence. Despite the very small areal nature of the risk, there is some potential for a tornado or damaging winds as these storms track across parts of Monroe, Miami-Dade, and Broward counties FL this afternoon from 18-21z. Please refer to SPC Mesoscale Discussion #151 for further details. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook requires no changes. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 02/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will likely remain limited through Monday across the country. A lee trough along the central to southern High Plains at the start of the period is forecast to drift east into the central Plains through the day. As this occurs, the downslope pressure gradient along the central/southern Rockies should abate, resulting in weaker downslope winds by peak heating compared to Sunday afternoon (though 20-30 mph gusts are probable in the immediate lee of terrain features). Despite the potential for weaker winds, diurnal RH reductions into the low 20s are expected and may coincide with 15-20 mph gusts. Consequently, pockets of transient elevated fire weather conditions are possible along the central/southern High Plains. As with Sunday, confidence in the extent and duration of such conditions - along with the potential for overlap with sufficiently dry fuels - is limited. Highlights are withheld for this forecast, but trends will be monitored. Elsewhere across the country, dry conditions are expected across the eastern third of the CONUS; however, weak winds along the axis of a surface ridge, combined with generally unreceptive fuels, should preclude fire concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook requires no changes. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 02/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will likely remain limited through Monday across the country. A lee trough along the central to southern High Plains at the start of the period is forecast to drift east into the central Plains through the day. As this occurs, the downslope pressure gradient along the central/southern Rockies should abate, resulting in weaker downslope winds by peak heating compared to Sunday afternoon (though 20-30 mph gusts are probable in the immediate lee of terrain features). Despite the potential for weaker winds, diurnal RH reductions into the low 20s are expected and may coincide with 15-20 mph gusts. Consequently, pockets of transient elevated fire weather conditions are possible along the central/southern High Plains. As with Sunday, confidence in the extent and duration of such conditions - along with the potential for overlap with sufficiently dry fuels - is limited. Highlights are withheld for this forecast, but trends will be monitored. Elsewhere across the country, dry conditions are expected across the eastern third of the CONUS; however, weak winds along the axis of a surface ridge, combined with generally unreceptive fuels, should preclude fire concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook requires no changes. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 02/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will likely remain limited through Monday across the country. A lee trough along the central to southern High Plains at the start of the period is forecast to drift east into the central Plains through the day. As this occurs, the downslope pressure gradient along the central/southern Rockies should abate, resulting in weaker downslope winds by peak heating compared to Sunday afternoon (though 20-30 mph gusts are probable in the immediate lee of terrain features). Despite the potential for weaker winds, diurnal RH reductions into the low 20s are expected and may coincide with 15-20 mph gusts. Consequently, pockets of transient elevated fire weather conditions are possible along the central/southern High Plains. As with Sunday, confidence in the extent and duration of such conditions - along with the potential for overlap with sufficiently dry fuels - is limited. Highlights are withheld for this forecast, but trends will be monitored. Elsewhere across the country, dry conditions are expected across the eastern third of the CONUS; however, weak winds along the axis of a surface ridge, combined with generally unreceptive fuels, should preclude fire concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook requires no changes. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 02/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will likely remain limited through Monday across the country. A lee trough along the central to southern High Plains at the start of the period is forecast to drift east into the central Plains through the day. As this occurs, the downslope pressure gradient along the central/southern Rockies should abate, resulting in weaker downslope winds by peak heating compared to Sunday afternoon (though 20-30 mph gusts are probable in the immediate lee of terrain features). Despite the potential for weaker winds, diurnal RH reductions into the low 20s are expected and may coincide with 15-20 mph gusts. Consequently, pockets of transient elevated fire weather conditions are possible along the central/southern High Plains. As with Sunday, confidence in the extent and duration of such conditions - along with the potential for overlap with sufficiently dry fuels - is limited. Highlights are withheld for this forecast, but trends will be monitored. Elsewhere across the country, dry conditions are expected across the eastern third of the CONUS; however, weak winds along the axis of a surface ridge, combined with generally unreceptive fuels, should preclude fire concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more