Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model guidance exhibits reasonable agreement in showing a strong mid-level speed max moving quickly east across the Southeast on Thursday. Models have shown some consistency in showing limited moisture return north into parts of the lower MS Valley/Mid South on Thursday, and areas farther east prior to a front moving offshore into the western Atlantic on Friday. Given the potential for lower CAPE/strong shear setup and inherent uncertainties involved, will refrain from a highlighted area on Thursday across the Mid South for this outlook update. A progressive flow regime will continue on Saturday across the CONUS with climatologically below-average severe-weather potential likely through Sunday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model guidance exhibits reasonable agreement in showing a strong mid-level speed max moving quickly east across the Southeast on Thursday. Models have shown some consistency in showing limited moisture return north into parts of the lower MS Valley/Mid South on Thursday, and areas farther east prior to a front moving offshore into the western Atlantic on Friday. Given the potential for lower CAPE/strong shear setup and inherent uncertainties involved, will refrain from a highlighted area on Thursday across the Mid South for this outlook update. A progressive flow regime will continue on Saturday across the CONUS with climatologically below-average severe-weather potential likely through Sunday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model guidance exhibits reasonable agreement in showing a strong mid-level speed max moving quickly east across the Southeast on Thursday. Models have shown some consistency in showing limited moisture return north into parts of the lower MS Valley/Mid South on Thursday, and areas farther east prior to a front moving offshore into the western Atlantic on Friday. Given the potential for lower CAPE/strong shear setup and inherent uncertainties involved, will refrain from a highlighted area on Thursday across the Mid South for this outlook update. A progressive flow regime will continue on Saturday across the CONUS with climatologically below-average severe-weather potential likely through Sunday. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms potentially capable of severe hail are possible Wednesday night over the Ozarks. ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level trough initially west of Baja California will quickly move east reaching OK/TX by early Thursday morning. A cyclone is forecast to develop over the south-central High Plains by early evening and move across northern OK overnight Wednesday. Southerly low-level flow will strengthen across the southern Great Plains during the day with the initial stage of moisture return into the south-central U.S. ...Ozarks vicinity... An intensifying southern Great Plains LLJ Wednesday evening will favor strong low-level warm air advection/isentropic lift over eastern OK/AR northward into KS/MO. An EML is forecast to overspread the OK/TX into the Ozarks during the day with a plume of 8 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates. Cold temperatures in the mid levels (-20 to -22 deg C at 500 mb) over the Ozarks coupled with lower 50s dewpoints spreading into the area, will yield 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE. Isolated to scattered storms will probably develop within the warm conveyer east of the cyclone, on the periphery of the stronger capping inversion (04-12z). Model forecast soundings suggest potential for severe hail with the stronger storms that manage to develop. ..Smith.. 02/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms potentially capable of severe hail are possible Wednesday night over the Ozarks. ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level trough initially west of Baja California will quickly move east reaching OK/TX by early Thursday morning. A cyclone is forecast to develop over the south-central High Plains by early evening and move across northern OK overnight Wednesday. Southerly low-level flow will strengthen across the southern Great Plains during the day with the initial stage of moisture return into the south-central U.S. ...Ozarks vicinity... An intensifying southern Great Plains LLJ Wednesday evening will favor strong low-level warm air advection/isentropic lift over eastern OK/AR northward into KS/MO. An EML is forecast to overspread the OK/TX into the Ozarks during the day with a plume of 8 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates. Cold temperatures in the mid levels (-20 to -22 deg C at 500 mb) over the Ozarks coupled with lower 50s dewpoints spreading into the area, will yield 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE. Isolated to scattered storms will probably develop within the warm conveyer east of the cyclone, on the periphery of the stronger capping inversion (04-12z). Model forecast soundings suggest potential for severe hail with the stronger storms that manage to develop. ..Smith.. 02/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms potentially capable of severe hail are possible Wednesday night over the Ozarks. ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level trough initially west of Baja California will quickly move east reaching OK/TX by early Thursday morning. A cyclone is forecast to develop over the south-central High Plains by early evening and move across northern OK overnight Wednesday. Southerly low-level flow will strengthen across the southern Great Plains during the day with the initial stage of moisture return into the south-central U.S. ...Ozarks vicinity... An intensifying southern Great Plains LLJ Wednesday evening will favor strong low-level warm air advection/isentropic lift over eastern OK/AR northward into KS/MO. An EML is forecast to overspread the OK/TX into the Ozarks during the day with a plume of 8 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates. Cold temperatures in the mid levels (-20 to -22 deg C at 500 mb) over the Ozarks coupled with lower 50s dewpoints spreading into the area, will yield 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE. Isolated to scattered storms will probably develop within the warm conveyer east of the cyclone, on the periphery of the stronger capping inversion (04-12z). Model forecast soundings suggest potential for severe hail with the stronger storms that manage to develop. ..Smith.. 02/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms potentially capable of severe hail are possible Wednesday night over the Ozarks. ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level trough initially west of Baja California will quickly move east reaching OK/TX by early Thursday morning. A cyclone is forecast to develop over the south-central High Plains by early evening and move across northern OK overnight Wednesday. Southerly low-level flow will strengthen across the southern Great Plains during the day with the initial stage of moisture return into the south-central U.S. ...Ozarks vicinity... An intensifying southern Great Plains LLJ Wednesday evening will favor strong low-level warm air advection/isentropic lift over eastern OK/AR northward into KS/MO. An EML is forecast to overspread the OK/TX into the Ozarks during the day with a plume of 8 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates. Cold temperatures in the mid levels (-20 to -22 deg C at 500 mb) over the Ozarks coupled with lower 50s dewpoints spreading into the area, will yield 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE. Isolated to scattered storms will probably develop within the warm conveyer east of the cyclone, on the periphery of the stronger capping inversion (04-12z). Model forecast soundings suggest potential for severe hail with the stronger storms that manage to develop. ..Smith.. 02/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms potentially capable of severe hail are possible Wednesday night over the Ozarks. ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level trough initially west of Baja California will quickly move east reaching OK/TX by early Thursday morning. A cyclone is forecast to develop over the south-central High Plains by early evening and move across northern OK overnight Wednesday. Southerly low-level flow will strengthen across the southern Great Plains during the day with the initial stage of moisture return into the south-central U.S. ...Ozarks vicinity... An intensifying southern Great Plains LLJ Wednesday evening will favor strong low-level warm air advection/isentropic lift over eastern OK/AR northward into KS/MO. An EML is forecast to overspread the OK/TX into the Ozarks during the day with a plume of 8 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates. Cold temperatures in the mid levels (-20 to -22 deg C at 500 mb) over the Ozarks coupled with lower 50s dewpoints spreading into the area, will yield 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE. Isolated to scattered storms will probably develop within the warm conveyer east of the cyclone, on the periphery of the stronger capping inversion (04-12z). Model forecast soundings suggest potential for severe hail with the stronger storms that manage to develop. ..Smith.. 02/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms potentially capable of severe hail are possible Wednesday night over the Ozarks. ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level trough initially west of Baja California will quickly move east reaching OK/TX by early Thursday morning. A cyclone is forecast to develop over the south-central High Plains by early evening and move across northern OK overnight Wednesday. Southerly low-level flow will strengthen across the southern Great Plains during the day with the initial stage of moisture return into the south-central U.S. ...Ozarks vicinity... An intensifying southern Great Plains LLJ Wednesday evening will favor strong low-level warm air advection/isentropic lift over eastern OK/AR northward into KS/MO. An EML is forecast to overspread the OK/TX into the Ozarks during the day with a plume of 8 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates. Cold temperatures in the mid levels (-20 to -22 deg C at 500 mb) over the Ozarks coupled with lower 50s dewpoints spreading into the area, will yield 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE. Isolated to scattered storms will probably develop within the warm conveyer east of the cyclone, on the periphery of the stronger capping inversion (04-12z). Model forecast soundings suggest potential for severe hail with the stronger storms that manage to develop. ..Smith.. 02/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms potentially capable of severe hail are possible Wednesday night over the Ozarks. ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level trough initially west of Baja California will quickly move east reaching OK/TX by early Thursday morning. A cyclone is forecast to develop over the south-central High Plains by early evening and move across northern OK overnight Wednesday. Southerly low-level flow will strengthen across the southern Great Plains during the day with the initial stage of moisture return into the south-central U.S. ...Ozarks vicinity... An intensifying southern Great Plains LLJ Wednesday evening will favor strong low-level warm air advection/isentropic lift over eastern OK/AR northward into KS/MO. An EML is forecast to overspread the OK/TX into the Ozarks during the day with a plume of 8 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates. Cold temperatures in the mid levels (-20 to -22 deg C at 500 mb) over the Ozarks coupled with lower 50s dewpoints spreading into the area, will yield 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE. Isolated to scattered storms will probably develop within the warm conveyer east of the cyclone, on the periphery of the stronger capping inversion (04-12z). Model forecast soundings suggest potential for severe hail with the stronger storms that manage to develop. ..Smith.. 02/19/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for Tuesday, though regional concerns may emerge across portions of eastern New Mexico and west Texas. The upper ridge currently across the Great Basin/Four Corners is forecast to shift east to the southern Rockies by Tuesday afternoon. While the approach of the ridge will suppress the development of a strong lee trough, increasing zonal flow over the terrain will promote breezy westerly downslope winds. Latest ensemble guidance suggests sustained winds around 20 mph may gust up to 30 mph in the lee of more prominent terrain features. These winds, coupled with diurnal RH reductions into the low 20s, may support pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. This potential appears most likely to occur across eastern NM in the lee of the Sangre De Cristo and Sandia Manzano mountains where terrain influences will support breezier winds. Drier/windier solutions hint that these conditions may extend as far east as west TX, but a dry bias has been noted over the past 24 hours in recent RAP/HRRR runs, which casts uncertainty onto the likelihood of observing elevated fire weather conditions of appreciable extent and duration. Furthermore, fuels across much of the southern High Plains remain only marginally dry, with ERC values near or below the 50th percentile for most locations. ..Moore.. 02/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for Tuesday, though regional concerns may emerge across portions of eastern New Mexico and west Texas. The upper ridge currently across the Great Basin/Four Corners is forecast to shift east to the southern Rockies by Tuesday afternoon. While the approach of the ridge will suppress the development of a strong lee trough, increasing zonal flow over the terrain will promote breezy westerly downslope winds. Latest ensemble guidance suggests sustained winds around 20 mph may gust up to 30 mph in the lee of more prominent terrain features. These winds, coupled with diurnal RH reductions into the low 20s, may support pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. This potential appears most likely to occur across eastern NM in the lee of the Sangre De Cristo and Sandia Manzano mountains where terrain influences will support breezier winds. Drier/windier solutions hint that these conditions may extend as far east as west TX, but a dry bias has been noted over the past 24 hours in recent RAP/HRRR runs, which casts uncertainty onto the likelihood of observing elevated fire weather conditions of appreciable extent and duration. Furthermore, fuels across much of the southern High Plains remain only marginally dry, with ERC values near or below the 50th percentile for most locations. ..Moore.. 02/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for Tuesday, though regional concerns may emerge across portions of eastern New Mexico and west Texas. The upper ridge currently across the Great Basin/Four Corners is forecast to shift east to the southern Rockies by Tuesday afternoon. While the approach of the ridge will suppress the development of a strong lee trough, increasing zonal flow over the terrain will promote breezy westerly downslope winds. Latest ensemble guidance suggests sustained winds around 20 mph may gust up to 30 mph in the lee of more prominent terrain features. These winds, coupled with diurnal RH reductions into the low 20s, may support pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. This potential appears most likely to occur across eastern NM in the lee of the Sangre De Cristo and Sandia Manzano mountains where terrain influences will support breezier winds. Drier/windier solutions hint that these conditions may extend as far east as west TX, but a dry bias has been noted over the past 24 hours in recent RAP/HRRR runs, which casts uncertainty onto the likelihood of observing elevated fire weather conditions of appreciable extent and duration. Furthermore, fuels across much of the southern High Plains remain only marginally dry, with ERC values near or below the 50th percentile for most locations. ..Moore.. 02/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for Tuesday, though regional concerns may emerge across portions of eastern New Mexico and west Texas. The upper ridge currently across the Great Basin/Four Corners is forecast to shift east to the southern Rockies by Tuesday afternoon. While the approach of the ridge will suppress the development of a strong lee trough, increasing zonal flow over the terrain will promote breezy westerly downslope winds. Latest ensemble guidance suggests sustained winds around 20 mph may gust up to 30 mph in the lee of more prominent terrain features. These winds, coupled with diurnal RH reductions into the low 20s, may support pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. This potential appears most likely to occur across eastern NM in the lee of the Sangre De Cristo and Sandia Manzano mountains where terrain influences will support breezier winds. Drier/windier solutions hint that these conditions may extend as far east as west TX, but a dry bias has been noted over the past 24 hours in recent RAP/HRRR runs, which casts uncertainty onto the likelihood of observing elevated fire weather conditions of appreciable extent and duration. Furthermore, fuels across much of the southern High Plains remain only marginally dry, with ERC values near or below the 50th percentile for most locations. ..Moore.. 02/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for Tuesday, though regional concerns may emerge across portions of eastern New Mexico and west Texas. The upper ridge currently across the Great Basin/Four Corners is forecast to shift east to the southern Rockies by Tuesday afternoon. While the approach of the ridge will suppress the development of a strong lee trough, increasing zonal flow over the terrain will promote breezy westerly downslope winds. Latest ensemble guidance suggests sustained winds around 20 mph may gust up to 30 mph in the lee of more prominent terrain features. These winds, coupled with diurnal RH reductions into the low 20s, may support pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. This potential appears most likely to occur across eastern NM in the lee of the Sangre De Cristo and Sandia Manzano mountains where terrain influences will support breezier winds. Drier/windier solutions hint that these conditions may extend as far east as west TX, but a dry bias has been noted over the past 24 hours in recent RAP/HRRR runs, which casts uncertainty onto the likelihood of observing elevated fire weather conditions of appreciable extent and duration. Furthermore, fuels across much of the southern High Plains remain only marginally dry, with ERC values near or below the 50th percentile for most locations. ..Moore.. 02/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for Tuesday, though regional concerns may emerge across portions of eastern New Mexico and west Texas. The upper ridge currently across the Great Basin/Four Corners is forecast to shift east to the southern Rockies by Tuesday afternoon. While the approach of the ridge will suppress the development of a strong lee trough, increasing zonal flow over the terrain will promote breezy westerly downslope winds. Latest ensemble guidance suggests sustained winds around 20 mph may gust up to 30 mph in the lee of more prominent terrain features. These winds, coupled with diurnal RH reductions into the low 20s, may support pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. This potential appears most likely to occur across eastern NM in the lee of the Sangre De Cristo and Sandia Manzano mountains where terrain influences will support breezier winds. Drier/windier solutions hint that these conditions may extend as far east as west TX, but a dry bias has been noted over the past 24 hours in recent RAP/HRRR runs, which casts uncertainty onto the likelihood of observing elevated fire weather conditions of appreciable extent and duration. Furthermore, fuels across much of the southern High Plains remain only marginally dry, with ERC values near or below the 50th percentile for most locations. ..Moore.. 02/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for today across the country, though localized concerns are possible in the lee of the central and Southern Rockies. 06 UTC surface observations depict a weak lee trough along the High Plains amid the passage of a low-amplitude upper-level disturbance. This surface feature is expected to migrate east into the Plains today, resulting in modest westerly downslope flow. A stronger pressure gradient yesterday (Sunday) under a similar RH regime (afternoon minimums in the 20-30% range) yielded very localized elevated fire weather conditions based on recent RTMA analyses and surface observations. With somewhat weaker winds expected today, elevated fire weather conditions should remain even more transient/localized within the immediate lee of more prominent terrain features. Elsewhere across the country, dry conditions will persist across parts of the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic, but weak winds under a broad surface high and marginal fuels should limit wind speeds and the overall fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 02/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for today across the country, though localized concerns are possible in the lee of the central and Southern Rockies. 06 UTC surface observations depict a weak lee trough along the High Plains amid the passage of a low-amplitude upper-level disturbance. This surface feature is expected to migrate east into the Plains today, resulting in modest westerly downslope flow. A stronger pressure gradient yesterday (Sunday) under a similar RH regime (afternoon minimums in the 20-30% range) yielded very localized elevated fire weather conditions based on recent RTMA analyses and surface observations. With somewhat weaker winds expected today, elevated fire weather conditions should remain even more transient/localized within the immediate lee of more prominent terrain features. Elsewhere across the country, dry conditions will persist across parts of the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic, but weak winds under a broad surface high and marginal fuels should limit wind speeds and the overall fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 02/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for today across the country, though localized concerns are possible in the lee of the central and Southern Rockies. 06 UTC surface observations depict a weak lee trough along the High Plains amid the passage of a low-amplitude upper-level disturbance. This surface feature is expected to migrate east into the Plains today, resulting in modest westerly downslope flow. A stronger pressure gradient yesterday (Sunday) under a similar RH regime (afternoon minimums in the 20-30% range) yielded very localized elevated fire weather conditions based on recent RTMA analyses and surface observations. With somewhat weaker winds expected today, elevated fire weather conditions should remain even more transient/localized within the immediate lee of more prominent terrain features. Elsewhere across the country, dry conditions will persist across parts of the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic, but weak winds under a broad surface high and marginal fuels should limit wind speeds and the overall fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 02/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for today across the country, though localized concerns are possible in the lee of the central and Southern Rockies. 06 UTC surface observations depict a weak lee trough along the High Plains amid the passage of a low-amplitude upper-level disturbance. This surface feature is expected to migrate east into the Plains today, resulting in modest westerly downslope flow. A stronger pressure gradient yesterday (Sunday) under a similar RH regime (afternoon minimums in the 20-30% range) yielded very localized elevated fire weather conditions based on recent RTMA analyses and surface observations. With somewhat weaker winds expected today, elevated fire weather conditions should remain even more transient/localized within the immediate lee of more prominent terrain features. Elsewhere across the country, dry conditions will persist across parts of the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic, but weak winds under a broad surface high and marginal fuels should limit wind speeds and the overall fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 02/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more