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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A strong upper-level trough will be in the process pivoting through the Southwest/northern Mexico on Thursday before quickly ejecting into the southern Plains by Friday morning. As this feature races northeastward it will become a strong upper low in the Upper Midwest with broadly cyclonic flow elsewhere across much of the central/eastern CONUS during the weekend. The upper-level pattern becomes a bit more uncertain into next week, though a trough in the East and a ridge in the West is the current general theme in forecast guidance. At the surface, a surface cyclone will deepen rapidly as it moves from the southern Plains into the lower Great Lakes region. Colder air will eventually filter into the Plains during the weekend with another reinforcing shot early next week. Low temperatures and precipitation should limit fire weather concerns in most areas. Dry and windy conditions are expected to occur in the Trans-Pecos on Thursday. Though locally elevated fire weather appears probable, limited fuel receptiveness should keep greater concerns from developing despite the near-critical/critical meteorological conditions. As the front moves southward on Friday, another northwesterly flow regime will develop in the Rio Grande Valley/South Texas. With the dry and windy conditions in the preceding days, fine fuels appear that they will be dry enough to support fire spread. Winds will be strongest in the morning into the early afternoon before diminishing. Highlights have been added for the few hours of expected elevated to near-critical fire weather. ..Wendt.. 01/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A strong upper-level trough will be in the process pivoting through the Southwest/northern Mexico on Thursday before quickly ejecting into the southern Plains by Friday morning. As this feature races northeastward it will become a strong upper low in the Upper Midwest with broadly cyclonic flow elsewhere across much of the central/eastern CONUS during the weekend. The upper-level pattern becomes a bit more uncertain into next week, though a trough in the East and a ridge in the West is the current general theme in forecast guidance. At the surface, a surface cyclone will deepen rapidly as it moves from the southern Plains into the lower Great Lakes region. Colder air will eventually filter into the Plains during the weekend with another reinforcing shot early next week. Low temperatures and precipitation should limit fire weather concerns in most areas. Dry and windy conditions are expected to occur in the Trans-Pecos on Thursday. Though locally elevated fire weather appears probable, limited fuel receptiveness should keep greater concerns from developing despite the near-critical/critical meteorological conditions. As the front moves southward on Friday, another northwesterly flow regime will develop in the Rio Grande Valley/South Texas. With the dry and windy conditions in the preceding days, fine fuels appear that they will be dry enough to support fire spread. Winds will be strongest in the morning into the early afternoon before diminishing. Highlights have been added for the few hours of expected elevated to near-critical fire weather. ..Wendt.. 01/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A strong upper-level trough will be in the process pivoting through the Southwest/northern Mexico on Thursday before quickly ejecting into the southern Plains by Friday morning. As this feature races northeastward it will become a strong upper low in the Upper Midwest with broadly cyclonic flow elsewhere across much of the central/eastern CONUS during the weekend. The upper-level pattern becomes a bit more uncertain into next week, though a trough in the East and a ridge in the West is the current general theme in forecast guidance. At the surface, a surface cyclone will deepen rapidly as it moves from the southern Plains into the lower Great Lakes region. Colder air will eventually filter into the Plains during the weekend with another reinforcing shot early next week. Low temperatures and precipitation should limit fire weather concerns in most areas. Dry and windy conditions are expected to occur in the Trans-Pecos on Thursday. Though locally elevated fire weather appears probable, limited fuel receptiveness should keep greater concerns from developing despite the near-critical/critical meteorological conditions. As the front moves southward on Friday, another northwesterly flow regime will develop in the Rio Grande Valley/South Texas. With the dry and windy conditions in the preceding days, fine fuels appear that they will be dry enough to support fire spread. Winds will be strongest in the morning into the early afternoon before diminishing. Highlights have been added for the few hours of expected elevated to near-critical fire weather. ..Wendt.. 01/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A strong upper-level trough will be in the process pivoting through the Southwest/northern Mexico on Thursday before quickly ejecting into the southern Plains by Friday morning. As this feature races northeastward it will become a strong upper low in the Upper Midwest with broadly cyclonic flow elsewhere across much of the central/eastern CONUS during the weekend. The upper-level pattern becomes a bit more uncertain into next week, though a trough in the East and a ridge in the West is the current general theme in forecast guidance. At the surface, a surface cyclone will deepen rapidly as it moves from the southern Plains into the lower Great Lakes region. Colder air will eventually filter into the Plains during the weekend with another reinforcing shot early next week. Low temperatures and precipitation should limit fire weather concerns in most areas. Dry and windy conditions are expected to occur in the Trans-Pecos on Thursday. Though locally elevated fire weather appears probable, limited fuel receptiveness should keep greater concerns from developing despite the near-critical/critical meteorological conditions. As the front moves southward on Friday, another northwesterly flow regime will develop in the Rio Grande Valley/South Texas. With the dry and windy conditions in the preceding days, fine fuels appear that they will be dry enough to support fire spread. Winds will be strongest in the morning into the early afternoon before diminishing. Highlights have been added for the few hours of expected elevated to near-critical fire weather. ..Wendt.. 01/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A strong upper-level trough will be in the process pivoting through the Southwest/northern Mexico on Thursday before quickly ejecting into the southern Plains by Friday morning. As this feature races northeastward it will become a strong upper low in the Upper Midwest with broadly cyclonic flow elsewhere across much of the central/eastern CONUS during the weekend. The upper-level pattern becomes a bit more uncertain into next week, though a trough in the East and a ridge in the West is the current general theme in forecast guidance. At the surface, a surface cyclone will deepen rapidly as it moves from the southern Plains into the lower Great Lakes region. Colder air will eventually filter into the Plains during the weekend with another reinforcing shot early next week. Low temperatures and precipitation should limit fire weather concerns in most areas. Dry and windy conditions are expected to occur in the Trans-Pecos on Thursday. Though locally elevated fire weather appears probable, limited fuel receptiveness should keep greater concerns from developing despite the near-critical/critical meteorological conditions. As the front moves southward on Friday, another northwesterly flow regime will develop in the Rio Grande Valley/South Texas. With the dry and windy conditions in the preceding days, fine fuels appear that they will be dry enough to support fire spread. Winds will be strongest in the morning into the early afternoon before diminishing. Highlights have been added for the few hours of expected elevated to near-critical fire weather. ..Wendt.. 01/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A strong upper-level trough will be in the process pivoting through the Southwest/northern Mexico on Thursday before quickly ejecting into the southern Plains by Friday morning. As this feature races northeastward it will become a strong upper low in the Upper Midwest with broadly cyclonic flow elsewhere across much of the central/eastern CONUS during the weekend. The upper-level pattern becomes a bit more uncertain into next week, though a trough in the East and a ridge in the West is the current general theme in forecast guidance. At the surface, a surface cyclone will deepen rapidly as it moves from the southern Plains into the lower Great Lakes region. Colder air will eventually filter into the Plains during the weekend with another reinforcing shot early next week. Low temperatures and precipitation should limit fire weather concerns in most areas. Dry and windy conditions are expected to occur in the Trans-Pecos on Thursday. Though locally elevated fire weather appears probable, limited fuel receptiveness should keep greater concerns from developing despite the near-critical/critical meteorological conditions. As the front moves southward on Friday, another northwesterly flow regime will develop in the Rio Grande Valley/South Texas. With the dry and windy conditions in the preceding days, fine fuels appear that they will be dry enough to support fire spread. Winds will be strongest in the morning into the early afternoon before diminishing. Highlights have been added for the few hours of expected elevated to near-critical fire weather. ..Wendt.. 01/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A strong upper-level trough will be in the process pivoting through the Southwest/northern Mexico on Thursday before quickly ejecting into the southern Plains by Friday morning. As this feature races northeastward it will become a strong upper low in the Upper Midwest with broadly cyclonic flow elsewhere across much of the central/eastern CONUS during the weekend. The upper-level pattern becomes a bit more uncertain into next week, though a trough in the East and a ridge in the West is the current general theme in forecast guidance. At the surface, a surface cyclone will deepen rapidly as it moves from the southern Plains into the lower Great Lakes region. Colder air will eventually filter into the Plains during the weekend with another reinforcing shot early next week. Low temperatures and precipitation should limit fire weather concerns in most areas. Dry and windy conditions are expected to occur in the Trans-Pecos on Thursday. Though locally elevated fire weather appears probable, limited fuel receptiveness should keep greater concerns from developing despite the near-critical/critical meteorological conditions. As the front moves southward on Friday, another northwesterly flow regime will develop in the Rio Grande Valley/South Texas. With the dry and windy conditions in the preceding days, fine fuels appear that they will be dry enough to support fire spread. Winds will be strongest in the morning into the early afternoon before diminishing. Highlights have been added for the few hours of expected elevated to near-critical fire weather. ..Wendt.. 01/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A strong upper-level trough will be in the process pivoting through the Southwest/northern Mexico on Thursday before quickly ejecting into the southern Plains by Friday morning. As this feature races northeastward it will become a strong upper low in the Upper Midwest with broadly cyclonic flow elsewhere across much of the central/eastern CONUS during the weekend. The upper-level pattern becomes a bit more uncertain into next week, though a trough in the East and a ridge in the West is the current general theme in forecast guidance. At the surface, a surface cyclone will deepen rapidly as it moves from the southern Plains into the lower Great Lakes region. Colder air will eventually filter into the Plains during the weekend with another reinforcing shot early next week. Low temperatures and precipitation should limit fire weather concerns in most areas. Dry and windy conditions are expected to occur in the Trans-Pecos on Thursday. Though locally elevated fire weather appears probable, limited fuel receptiveness should keep greater concerns from developing despite the near-critical/critical meteorological conditions. As the front moves southward on Friday, another northwesterly flow regime will develop in the Rio Grande Valley/South Texas. With the dry and windy conditions in the preceding days, fine fuels appear that they will be dry enough to support fire spread. Winds will be strongest in the morning into the early afternoon before diminishing. Highlights have been added for the few hours of expected elevated to near-critical fire weather. ..Wendt.. 01/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A strong upper-level trough will be in the process pivoting through the Southwest/northern Mexico on Thursday before quickly ejecting into the southern Plains by Friday morning. As this feature races northeastward it will become a strong upper low in the Upper Midwest with broadly cyclonic flow elsewhere across much of the central/eastern CONUS during the weekend. The upper-level pattern becomes a bit more uncertain into next week, though a trough in the East and a ridge in the West is the current general theme in forecast guidance. At the surface, a surface cyclone will deepen rapidly as it moves from the southern Plains into the lower Great Lakes region. Colder air will eventually filter into the Plains during the weekend with another reinforcing shot early next week. Low temperatures and precipitation should limit fire weather concerns in most areas. Dry and windy conditions are expected to occur in the Trans-Pecos on Thursday. Though locally elevated fire weather appears probable, limited fuel receptiveness should keep greater concerns from developing despite the near-critical/critical meteorological conditions. As the front moves southward on Friday, another northwesterly flow regime will develop in the Rio Grande Valley/South Texas. With the dry and windy conditions in the preceding days, fine fuels appear that they will be dry enough to support fire spread. Winds will be strongest in the morning into the early afternoon before diminishing. Highlights have been added for the few hours of expected elevated to near-critical fire weather. ..Wendt.. 01/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A strong upper-level trough will be in the process pivoting through the Southwest/northern Mexico on Thursday before quickly ejecting into the southern Plains by Friday morning. As this feature races northeastward it will become a strong upper low in the Upper Midwest with broadly cyclonic flow elsewhere across much of the central/eastern CONUS during the weekend. The upper-level pattern becomes a bit more uncertain into next week, though a trough in the East and a ridge in the West is the current general theme in forecast guidance. At the surface, a surface cyclone will deepen rapidly as it moves from the southern Plains into the lower Great Lakes region. Colder air will eventually filter into the Plains during the weekend with another reinforcing shot early next week. Low temperatures and precipitation should limit fire weather concerns in most areas. Dry and windy conditions are expected to occur in the Trans-Pecos on Thursday. Though locally elevated fire weather appears probable, limited fuel receptiveness should keep greater concerns from developing despite the near-critical/critical meteorological conditions. As the front moves southward on Friday, another northwesterly flow regime will develop in the Rio Grande Valley/South Texas. With the dry and windy conditions in the preceding days, fine fuels appear that they will be dry enough to support fire spread. Winds will be strongest in the morning into the early afternoon before diminishing. Highlights have been added for the few hours of expected elevated to near-critical fire weather. ..Wendt.. 01/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0007 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 7 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..01/09/24 ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...MHX...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 7 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC001-017-019-033-037-047-051-061-063-065-069-077-079-081-083- 085-093-101-105-107-123-125-127-129-131-135-141-145-153-155-157- 163-165-181-183-185-191-195-092140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE BLADEN BRUNSWICK CASWELL CHATHAM COLUMBUS CUMBERLAND DUPLIN DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GRANVILLE GREENE GUILFORD HALIFAX HARNETT HOKE JOHNSTON LEE LENOIR MONTGOMERY MOORE NASH NEW HANOVER NORTHAMPTON ORANGE PENDER PERSON RICHMOND ROBESON ROCKINGHAM SAMPSON SCOTLAND VANCE WAKE WARREN WAYNE WILSON VAC007-011-025-029-031-037-041-049-053-081-083-111-117-135-143- 145-147-570-590-595-730-092140- VA Read more

WW 0006 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 6 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW PIE TO 50 SW OCF TO 5 NNW GNV. ..THORNTON..01/09/24 ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 6 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC009-015-017-027-049-053-055-057-069-071-081-095-097-101-103- 105-115-117-119-127-092140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BREVARD CHARLOTTE CITRUS DESOTO HARDEE HERNANDO HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH LAKE LEE MANATEE ORANGE OSCEOLA PASCO PINELLAS POLK SARASOTA SEMINOLE SUMTER VOLUSIA AMZ550-552-GMZ830-836-853-856-092140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM Read more

WW 0005 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 5 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW OCF TO 30 ENE GNV TO 15 WNW SSI TO 15 N SAV TO 35 SSW OGB TO 20 N OGB TO 40 SSE CLT TO 35 ENE CLT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0000 ..THORNTON..01/09/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...CHS...CAE...RAH...GSP...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 5 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC035-083-107-109-092140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FLAGLER MARION PUTNAM ST. JOHNS GAC051-127-191-092140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHATHAM GLYNN MCINTOSH NCC007-057-067-151-167-179-092140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong) and damaging wind remain possible through the afternoon and into the early evening from parts of Florida into the Carolinas. ...20Z Update... An extensive QLCS is ongoing this afternoon from the Carolinas into north FL, with embedded supercell structures occasionally noted within the line. Attempts at discrete, prefrontal supercell development have also been noted near and just off of the SC coast. Very strong deep-layer shear will continue to support organized convection wherever buoyancy can increase above negligible levels, with damaging wind and line-embedded tornadoes being the primary hazards. Extreme low-level shear (with 0-1 km SRH near or above 500 m2/s2) could still support a strong-tornado risk with any prefrontal supercells that can mature across the Carolinas, or perhaps with any persistent embedded supercell within the primary QLCS. The primary QLCS will likely persist until it reaches the Atlantic coast, with some severe threat potentially spreading as far north as southeast VA, and potentially into parts of east-central and south FL into this evening. See WW 5, WW 6, WW 7, and the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 01/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024/ ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong) and damaging wind remain possible through the afternoon and into the early evening from parts of Florida into the Carolinas. ...20Z Update... An extensive QLCS is ongoing this afternoon from the Carolinas into north FL, with embedded supercell structures occasionally noted within the line. Attempts at discrete, prefrontal supercell development have also been noted near and just off of the SC coast. Very strong deep-layer shear will continue to support organized convection wherever buoyancy can increase above negligible levels, with damaging wind and line-embedded tornadoes being the primary hazards. Extreme low-level shear (with 0-1 km SRH near or above 500 m2/s2) could still support a strong-tornado risk with any prefrontal supercells that can mature across the Carolinas, or perhaps with any persistent embedded supercell within the primary QLCS. The primary QLCS will likely persist until it reaches the Atlantic coast, with some severe threat potentially spreading as far north as southeast VA, and potentially into parts of east-central and south FL into this evening. See WW 5, WW 6, WW 7, and the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 01/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024/ ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong) and damaging wind remain possible through the afternoon and into the early evening from parts of Florida into the Carolinas. ...20Z Update... An extensive QLCS is ongoing this afternoon from the Carolinas into north FL, with embedded supercell structures occasionally noted within the line. Attempts at discrete, prefrontal supercell development have also been noted near and just off of the SC coast. Very strong deep-layer shear will continue to support organized convection wherever buoyancy can increase above negligible levels, with damaging wind and line-embedded tornadoes being the primary hazards. Extreme low-level shear (with 0-1 km SRH near or above 500 m2/s2) could still support a strong-tornado risk with any prefrontal supercells that can mature across the Carolinas, or perhaps with any persistent embedded supercell within the primary QLCS. The primary QLCS will likely persist until it reaches the Atlantic coast, with some severe threat potentially spreading as far north as southeast VA, and potentially into parts of east-central and south FL into this evening. See WW 5, WW 6, WW 7, and the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 01/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024/ ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong) and damaging wind remain possible through the afternoon and into the early evening from parts of Florida into the Carolinas. ...20Z Update... An extensive QLCS is ongoing this afternoon from the Carolinas into north FL, with embedded supercell structures occasionally noted within the line. Attempts at discrete, prefrontal supercell development have also been noted near and just off of the SC coast. Very strong deep-layer shear will continue to support organized convection wherever buoyancy can increase above negligible levels, with damaging wind and line-embedded tornadoes being the primary hazards. Extreme low-level shear (with 0-1 km SRH near or above 500 m2/s2) could still support a strong-tornado risk with any prefrontal supercells that can mature across the Carolinas, or perhaps with any persistent embedded supercell within the primary QLCS. The primary QLCS will likely persist until it reaches the Atlantic coast, with some severe threat potentially spreading as far north as southeast VA, and potentially into parts of east-central and south FL into this evening. See WW 5, WW 6, WW 7, and the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 01/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024/ ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong) and damaging wind remain possible through the afternoon and into the early evening from parts of Florida into the Carolinas. ...20Z Update... An extensive QLCS is ongoing this afternoon from the Carolinas into north FL, with embedded supercell structures occasionally noted within the line. Attempts at discrete, prefrontal supercell development have also been noted near and just off of the SC coast. Very strong deep-layer shear will continue to support organized convection wherever buoyancy can increase above negligible levels, with damaging wind and line-embedded tornadoes being the primary hazards. Extreme low-level shear (with 0-1 km SRH near or above 500 m2/s2) could still support a strong-tornado risk with any prefrontal supercells that can mature across the Carolinas, or perhaps with any persistent embedded supercell within the primary QLCS. The primary QLCS will likely persist until it reaches the Atlantic coast, with some severe threat potentially spreading as far north as southeast VA, and potentially into parts of east-central and south FL into this evening. See WW 5, WW 6, WW 7, and the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 01/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024/ ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong) and damaging wind remain possible through the afternoon and into the early evening from parts of Florida into the Carolinas. ...20Z Update... An extensive QLCS is ongoing this afternoon from the Carolinas into north FL, with embedded supercell structures occasionally noted within the line. Attempts at discrete, prefrontal supercell development have also been noted near and just off of the SC coast. Very strong deep-layer shear will continue to support organized convection wherever buoyancy can increase above negligible levels, with damaging wind and line-embedded tornadoes being the primary hazards. Extreme low-level shear (with 0-1 km SRH near or above 500 m2/s2) could still support a strong-tornado risk with any prefrontal supercells that can mature across the Carolinas, or perhaps with any persistent embedded supercell within the primary QLCS. The primary QLCS will likely persist until it reaches the Atlantic coast, with some severe threat potentially spreading as far north as southeast VA, and potentially into parts of east-central and south FL into this evening. See WW 5, WW 6, WW 7, and the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 01/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024/ ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong) and damaging wind remain possible through the afternoon and into the early evening from parts of Florida into the Carolinas. ...20Z Update... An extensive QLCS is ongoing this afternoon from the Carolinas into north FL, with embedded supercell structures occasionally noted within the line. Attempts at discrete, prefrontal supercell development have also been noted near and just off of the SC coast. Very strong deep-layer shear will continue to support organized convection wherever buoyancy can increase above negligible levels, with damaging wind and line-embedded tornadoes being the primary hazards. Extreme low-level shear (with 0-1 km SRH near or above 500 m2/s2) could still support a strong-tornado risk with any prefrontal supercells that can mature across the Carolinas, or perhaps with any persistent embedded supercell within the primary QLCS. The primary QLCS will likely persist until it reaches the Atlantic coast, with some severe threat potentially spreading as far north as southeast VA, and potentially into parts of east-central and south FL into this evening. See WW 5, WW 6, WW 7, and the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 01/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024/ ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. Read more