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WW 0007 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 7 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0032 ..THORNTON..01/09/24 ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...MHX...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 7 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC001-017-019-033-037-047-051-061-063-065-069-077-079-081-083- 085-093-101-105-107-123-125-127-129-131-135-141-145-153-155-157- 163-165-181-183-185-191-195-092040- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE BLADEN BRUNSWICK CASWELL CHATHAM COLUMBUS CUMBERLAND DUPLIN DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GRANVILLE GREENE GUILFORD HALIFAX HARNETT HOKE JOHNSTON LEE LENOIR MONTGOMERY MOORE NASH NEW HANOVER NORTHAMPTON ORANGE PENDER PERSON RICHMOND ROBESON ROCKINGHAM SAMPSON SCOTLAND VANCE WAKE WARREN WAYNE WILSON VAC007-011-025-029-031-037-041-049-053-081-083-111-117-135-143- 145-147-570-590-595-730-092040- Read more

WW 0005 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 5 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E CTY TO 20 W JAX TO 30 WSW SAV TO 45 SE AGS TO 20 WSW OGB TO 15 NE CAE TO 40 NNE CLT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0033 ..THORNTON..01/09/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...CHS...CAE...RAH...GSP...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 5 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-007-019-031-035-083-089-107-109-125-092040- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA BRADFORD CLAY DUVAL FLAGLER MARION NASSAU PUTNAM ST. JOHNS UNION GAC029-039-051-103-127-179-191-092040- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRYAN CAMDEN CHATHAM EFFINGHAM GLYNN LIBERTY MCINTOSH NCC007-025-057-067-151-159-167-179-092040- Read more

MD 0033 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 4...5... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH FL AND COASTAL/SOUTHEAST GA
Mesoscale Discussion 0033 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Areas affected...Portions of north FL and coastal/southeast GA Concerning...Tornado Watch 4...5... Valid 091816Z - 091945Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 4, 5 continues. SUMMARY...A tornado threat continues with small cells embedded within a line of thunderstorms moving quickly eastward. Severe/damaging winds also remain a concern. DISCUSSION...The line of thunderstorms across southeast GA has become a bit more broken recently, with a couple small cells noted. Extremely strong low-level shear remains present along/downstream of this activity across north FL and coastal/southeast GA, with recent VWPs from KJAX showing around 50 kt of 0-1 km shear, and effective SRH in excess of 500 m2/s2. Low-level rotation has been noted with these small cells, and a tornado threat remains apparent given the very favorable kinematic environment. With some modest daytime heating also occurring (surface temperatures generally reaching into the low to mid 70s), steepening low-level lapse rates should promote efficient downward momentum transfer of the very strong flow just off the surface. Severe/damaging downdraft winds will remain a concern with the more linear structures as the overall line advances quickly eastward through the afternoon. ..Gleason.. 01/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 29898334 30918299 32518231 32618172 31878108 31138134 29618180 29898334 Read more

MD 0031 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FL PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0031 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Areas affected...Portions of the northern and central FL Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 091742Z - 091945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms will move quickly eastward this afternoon, posing a threat for severe/damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Watch issuance is likely. DISCUSSION...As of 1740Z, convection extends in a nearly continuous line from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico into north FL and southern/eastern GA ahead of a cold front. Strong deep-layer shear associated with a powerful mid/upper-level cyclone will continue to support updraft intensity and organization with this activity as it approaches the FL Peninsula over the next couple of hours. A very moist low-level airmass is already in place over much of the northern/central FL Peninsula, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 60s. Filtered diurnal heating with some cloud breaks has allowed for modest boundary-layer destabilization so far, even with poor lapse rates/residual capping noted in the 850-700 mb layer from various RAP/NAM forecast soundings. While FL remains on the southern extent of an enhanced low-level jet, around 50-60 kt of south-southwesterly flow near/above 1 km has been estimated from the KTBW and KMLB radars. Corresponding 0-1 km SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 will be more than adequate to foster low-level rotation and some tornado threat with circulations embedded within the line. Greater potential for severe/damaging winds is evident given the mainly linear mode expected and strength of the low-level flow. With the ongoing fast eastward movement of the line, watch issuance will likely be needed for parts of the northern/central FL Peninsula this afternoon. ..Gleason/Hart.. 01/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 29478272 29198122 28738090 27728110 26778218 27538281 28118286 28718275 29148303 29478272 Read more

MD 0032 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 5... FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND FAR SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0032 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Areas affected...central and eastern South Carolina and far southern North Carolina Concerning...Tornado Watch 5... Valid 091756Z - 091930Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 5 continues. SUMMARY...A squall line capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes is expected to continue through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Ahead of a squall line in western South Carolina and eastern Georgia, instability remains weak, but sufficient for some damaging wind threat. Strong southeasterly 15-25 kt surface winds continue to advect significant low-level moisture northward which will further destabilize areas ahead of the line. Given the very strong wind profile (80 knots at 1km per CAE VWP), this line will likely continue to produce damaging winds, even with meager instability. In addition, strong shear with clockwise curved hodographs will support some QLCS tornado threat, particularly across southern South Carolina where mid-60s dewpoints have advected onshore. Additionally, a confluence band of showers has started to develop off the South Carolina coast. As cooler air aloft overspreads this region and low-level moisture continues to advect northward, instability is expected to increase and may lead to some potential for strong supercells and perhaps a greater threat for strong tornadoes given the greater instability and discrete mode. ..Bentley.. 01/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... LAT...LON 34348174 35268122 35498066 35467993 34327889 33647877 33077899 32297996 32198061 32348140 33298242 34348174 Read more

MD 0034 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0034 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Areas affected...Eastern/Central North Carolina and southern Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 091832Z - 091930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Strong southeasterly flow is destabilizing eastern North Carolina and southern Virginia. This will increase the severe weather threat this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Instability is currently weak across much of North Carolina. However, southeasterly moisture advection is gradually destabilizing the airmass. By later this afternoon, some damaging wind threat is expected to materialize as the squall line moves into more substantial Gulf Stream moisture. Given the very strong wind field, even the current weak instability could support some damaging wind gusts with the threat increasing through the afternoon. The strong low-level speed and directional shear will support some tornado threat, but mid 60s dewpoints will likely be needed for a more substantial threat, which will not arrive until later this afternoon across eastern North Carolina. A watch will be issued soon to address this threat. ..Bentley/Hart.. 01/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK... LAT...LON 35618023 36108034 36448043 36758043 37017936 37117857 37007748 36317702 35737698 34917672 34677671 34517703 34247752 33807783 33677800 33687836 34707955 35618023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions appear mostly quiescent through the forecast period, as the potent upper-level cyclone over the central US quickly moves to the east. Strong westerly flow aloft will remain over the CONUS. However, surface winds will remain light in the dry, but relatively cool post-frontal air mass. A few hours of low-end fire weather conditions are possible from the Trans-Pecos into the Rio Grand Valley/South Texas, where lingering low humidity and occasional gusty surface winds are possible through the afternoon. However, with area fuel moisture near normal and the relatively limited overlap of dry and breezy conditions, fire-weather concerns should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions appear mostly quiescent through the forecast period, as the potent upper-level cyclone over the central US quickly moves to the east. Strong westerly flow aloft will remain over the CONUS. However, surface winds will remain light in the dry, but relatively cool post-frontal air mass. A few hours of low-end fire weather conditions are possible from the Trans-Pecos into the Rio Grand Valley/South Texas, where lingering low humidity and occasional gusty surface winds are possible through the afternoon. However, with area fuel moisture near normal and the relatively limited overlap of dry and breezy conditions, fire-weather concerns should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions appear mostly quiescent through the forecast period, as the potent upper-level cyclone over the central US quickly moves to the east. Strong westerly flow aloft will remain over the CONUS. However, surface winds will remain light in the dry, but relatively cool post-frontal air mass. A few hours of low-end fire weather conditions are possible from the Trans-Pecos into the Rio Grand Valley/South Texas, where lingering low humidity and occasional gusty surface winds are possible through the afternoon. However, with area fuel moisture near normal and the relatively limited overlap of dry and breezy conditions, fire-weather concerns should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions appear mostly quiescent through the forecast period, as the potent upper-level cyclone over the central US quickly moves to the east. Strong westerly flow aloft will remain over the CONUS. However, surface winds will remain light in the dry, but relatively cool post-frontal air mass. A few hours of low-end fire weather conditions are possible from the Trans-Pecos into the Rio Grand Valley/South Texas, where lingering low humidity and occasional gusty surface winds are possible through the afternoon. However, with area fuel moisture near normal and the relatively limited overlap of dry and breezy conditions, fire-weather concerns should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions appear mostly quiescent through the forecast period, as the potent upper-level cyclone over the central US quickly moves to the east. Strong westerly flow aloft will remain over the CONUS. However, surface winds will remain light in the dry, but relatively cool post-frontal air mass. A few hours of low-end fire weather conditions are possible from the Trans-Pecos into the Rio Grand Valley/South Texas, where lingering low humidity and occasional gusty surface winds are possible through the afternoon. However, with area fuel moisture near normal and the relatively limited overlap of dry and breezy conditions, fire-weather concerns should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions appear mostly quiescent through the forecast period, as the potent upper-level cyclone over the central US quickly moves to the east. Strong westerly flow aloft will remain over the CONUS. However, surface winds will remain light in the dry, but relatively cool post-frontal air mass. A few hours of low-end fire weather conditions are possible from the Trans-Pecos into the Rio Grand Valley/South Texas, where lingering low humidity and occasional gusty surface winds are possible through the afternoon. However, with area fuel moisture near normal and the relatively limited overlap of dry and breezy conditions, fire-weather concerns should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions appear mostly quiescent through the forecast period, as the potent upper-level cyclone over the central US quickly moves to the east. Strong westerly flow aloft will remain over the CONUS. However, surface winds will remain light in the dry, but relatively cool post-frontal air mass. A few hours of low-end fire weather conditions are possible from the Trans-Pecos into the Rio Grand Valley/South Texas, where lingering low humidity and occasional gusty surface winds are possible through the afternoon. However, with area fuel moisture near normal and the relatively limited overlap of dry and breezy conditions, fire-weather concerns should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions appear mostly quiescent through the forecast period, as the potent upper-level cyclone over the central US quickly moves to the east. Strong westerly flow aloft will remain over the CONUS. However, surface winds will remain light in the dry, but relatively cool post-frontal air mass. A few hours of low-end fire weather conditions are possible from the Trans-Pecos into the Rio Grand Valley/South Texas, where lingering low humidity and occasional gusty surface winds are possible through the afternoon. However, with area fuel moisture near normal and the relatively limited overlap of dry and breezy conditions, fire-weather concerns should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions appear mostly quiescent through the forecast period, as the potent upper-level cyclone over the central US quickly moves to the east. Strong westerly flow aloft will remain over the CONUS. However, surface winds will remain light in the dry, but relatively cool post-frontal air mass. A few hours of low-end fire weather conditions are possible from the Trans-Pecos into the Rio Grand Valley/South Texas, where lingering low humidity and occasional gusty surface winds are possible through the afternoon. However, with area fuel moisture near normal and the relatively limited overlap of dry and breezy conditions, fire-weather concerns should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions appear mostly quiescent through the forecast period, as the potent upper-level cyclone over the central US quickly moves to the east. Strong westerly flow aloft will remain over the CONUS. However, surface winds will remain light in the dry, but relatively cool post-frontal air mass. A few hours of low-end fire weather conditions are possible from the Trans-Pecos into the Rio Grand Valley/South Texas, where lingering low humidity and occasional gusty surface winds are possible through the afternoon. However, with area fuel moisture near normal and the relatively limited overlap of dry and breezy conditions, fire-weather concerns should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions appear mostly quiescent through the forecast period, as the potent upper-level cyclone over the central US quickly moves to the east. Strong westerly flow aloft will remain over the CONUS. However, surface winds will remain light in the dry, but relatively cool post-frontal air mass. A few hours of low-end fire weather conditions are possible from the Trans-Pecos into the Rio Grand Valley/South Texas, where lingering low humidity and occasional gusty surface winds are possible through the afternoon. However, with area fuel moisture near normal and the relatively limited overlap of dry and breezy conditions, fire-weather concerns should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions appear mostly quiescent through the forecast period, as the potent upper-level cyclone over the central US quickly moves to the east. Strong westerly flow aloft will remain over the CONUS. However, surface winds will remain light in the dry, but relatively cool post-frontal air mass. A few hours of low-end fire weather conditions are possible from the Trans-Pecos into the Rio Grand Valley/South Texas, where lingering low humidity and occasional gusty surface winds are possible through the afternoon. However, with area fuel moisture near normal and the relatively limited overlap of dry and breezy conditions, fire-weather concerns should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions appear mostly quiescent through the forecast period, as the potent upper-level cyclone over the central US quickly moves to the east. Strong westerly flow aloft will remain over the CONUS. However, surface winds will remain light in the dry, but relatively cool post-frontal air mass. A few hours of low-end fire weather conditions are possible from the Trans-Pecos into the Rio Grand Valley/South Texas, where lingering low humidity and occasional gusty surface winds are possible through the afternoon. However, with area fuel moisture near normal and the relatively limited overlap of dry and breezy conditions, fire-weather concerns should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions appear mostly quiescent through the forecast period, as the potent upper-level cyclone over the central US quickly moves to the east. Strong westerly flow aloft will remain over the CONUS. However, surface winds will remain light in the dry, but relatively cool post-frontal air mass. A few hours of low-end fire weather conditions are possible from the Trans-Pecos into the Rio Grand Valley/South Texas, where lingering low humidity and occasional gusty surface winds are possible through the afternoon. However, with area fuel moisture near normal and the relatively limited overlap of dry and breezy conditions, fire-weather concerns should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more