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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NEAR-COASTAL SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and damaging winds remain possible over parts of the near-coastal Southeast, as well as portions of central and north Texas. ...20Z Update... No major changes have been made to the outlook. The evolution of convection remains uncertain across north FL due to ongoing storms, but redevelopment of a few strong storms remains possible along the cold front into southeast GA and the Carolinas late this afternoon into this evening. Storms have recently developed across central TX, with additional development possible into north TX later this afternoon. Cold air aloft will support an isolated hail threat with the strongest storms in this area. See the previous discussion below for more information, and MCD 310 regarding the short-term threat in central TX. ..Dean.. 03/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Minor changes were made to expand the Marginal risk across the southeast into portions of southern South Carolina and to expand the Marginal Risk across Texas further south into central Texas to account for recent trends. ...Southeast CONUS... A broken line of thunderstorms continues to move eastward across the northern Florida Panhandle this morning. This activity will move offshore through the late morning/afternoon. A surface cold front/stationary front will slowly move eastward as weak frontal wave develops across the Carolinas this afternoon and a surface low deepens across the Gulf. Broken mid-to high level cloud cover will remain in place across much of the northern Florida Peninsula northward into the Carolinas in the wake of morning convection. Strengthening warm air advection in combination with some breaks in the cloud cover across this region should help to allow air mass recovery into the afternoon, with RAP forecast soundings developing around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE in a band from southern South Carolina into the northern Florida Peninsula. Widespread thunderstorm development is expected along the front by late afternoon/early evening. A few more robust thunderstorms will be capable of damaging winds and large hail, given strong deep layer shear profiles. A few of these stronger storms may extend as far northward as southern South Carolina where a surface warm front/stationary front will extend, supporting a northward expansion of the Marginal risk into this region. ...Central and North Texas.... Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to develop across northern and central Texas this afternoon as temperatures cool aloft and steep lapse rates overspread modest moisture. This activity will largely be driven by diurnal heating, with storms developing in the afternoon and decreasing in coverage through the evening. Given the cooling aloft, steep lapse rates, and modest deep layer shear. A few transient supercell structures will be possible with potential for large hail and gusty winds. The Marginal across this region was expanded southward to account for recent trends in hi-res guidance to capture potential for afternoon thunderstorm coverage. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NEAR-COASTAL SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and damaging winds remain possible over parts of the near-coastal Southeast, as well as portions of central and north Texas. ...20Z Update... No major changes have been made to the outlook. The evolution of convection remains uncertain across north FL due to ongoing storms, but redevelopment of a few strong storms remains possible along the cold front into southeast GA and the Carolinas late this afternoon into this evening. Storms have recently developed across central TX, with additional development possible into north TX later this afternoon. Cold air aloft will support an isolated hail threat with the strongest storms in this area. See the previous discussion below for more information, and MCD 310 regarding the short-term threat in central TX. ..Dean.. 03/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Minor changes were made to expand the Marginal risk across the southeast into portions of southern South Carolina and to expand the Marginal Risk across Texas further south into central Texas to account for recent trends. ...Southeast CONUS... A broken line of thunderstorms continues to move eastward across the northern Florida Panhandle this morning. This activity will move offshore through the late morning/afternoon. A surface cold front/stationary front will slowly move eastward as weak frontal wave develops across the Carolinas this afternoon and a surface low deepens across the Gulf. Broken mid-to high level cloud cover will remain in place across much of the northern Florida Peninsula northward into the Carolinas in the wake of morning convection. Strengthening warm air advection in combination with some breaks in the cloud cover across this region should help to allow air mass recovery into the afternoon, with RAP forecast soundings developing around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE in a band from southern South Carolina into the northern Florida Peninsula. Widespread thunderstorm development is expected along the front by late afternoon/early evening. A few more robust thunderstorms will be capable of damaging winds and large hail, given strong deep layer shear profiles. A few of these stronger storms may extend as far northward as southern South Carolina where a surface warm front/stationary front will extend, supporting a northward expansion of the Marginal risk into this region. ...Central and North Texas.... Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to develop across northern and central Texas this afternoon as temperatures cool aloft and steep lapse rates overspread modest moisture. This activity will largely be driven by diurnal heating, with storms developing in the afternoon and decreasing in coverage through the evening. Given the cooling aloft, steep lapse rates, and modest deep layer shear. A few transient supercell structures will be possible with potential for large hail and gusty winds. The Marginal across this region was expanded southward to account for recent trends in hi-res guidance to capture potential for afternoon thunderstorm coverage. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...20z Update... Despite recent light precipitation including snow, rapidly warming temperatures and a switch to southerly winds should support drying across much of the southern High Plains Thursday. Widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely with sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph and relative humidity of 15-20%. Localized critical conditions may also develop across parts of the western TX Panhandle where winds could gust closer to 30 mph with RH below 15% briefly. See previous discussion for additional information. Trimmed the eastern edge of the Elevated area away from heavier precipitation. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will approach the Rocky Mountains tomorrow (Thursday), with surface lee troughing and associated dry downslope flow anticipated across portions of the southern High Plains. For the afternoon hours, the latest guidance consensus depicts 15+ mph sustained south-southwesterly winds coinciding with 15-20 percent RH across eastern New Mexico into western Texas. With fuels being marginally receptive to wildfire spread, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...20z Update... Despite recent light precipitation including snow, rapidly warming temperatures and a switch to southerly winds should support drying across much of the southern High Plains Thursday. Widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely with sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph and relative humidity of 15-20%. Localized critical conditions may also develop across parts of the western TX Panhandle where winds could gust closer to 30 mph with RH below 15% briefly. See previous discussion for additional information. Trimmed the eastern edge of the Elevated area away from heavier precipitation. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will approach the Rocky Mountains tomorrow (Thursday), with surface lee troughing and associated dry downslope flow anticipated across portions of the southern High Plains. For the afternoon hours, the latest guidance consensus depicts 15+ mph sustained south-southwesterly winds coinciding with 15-20 percent RH across eastern New Mexico into western Texas. With fuels being marginally receptive to wildfire spread, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...20z Update... Despite recent light precipitation including snow, rapidly warming temperatures and a switch to southerly winds should support drying across much of the southern High Plains Thursday. Widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely with sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph and relative humidity of 15-20%. Localized critical conditions may also develop across parts of the western TX Panhandle where winds could gust closer to 30 mph with RH below 15% briefly. See previous discussion for additional information. Trimmed the eastern edge of the Elevated area away from heavier precipitation. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will approach the Rocky Mountains tomorrow (Thursday), with surface lee troughing and associated dry downslope flow anticipated across portions of the southern High Plains. For the afternoon hours, the latest guidance consensus depicts 15+ mph sustained south-southwesterly winds coinciding with 15-20 percent RH across eastern New Mexico into western Texas. With fuels being marginally receptive to wildfire spread, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...20z Update... Despite recent light precipitation including snow, rapidly warming temperatures and a switch to southerly winds should support drying across much of the southern High Plains Thursday. Widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely with sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph and relative humidity of 15-20%. Localized critical conditions may also develop across parts of the western TX Panhandle where winds could gust closer to 30 mph with RH below 15% briefly. See previous discussion for additional information. Trimmed the eastern edge of the Elevated area away from heavier precipitation. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will approach the Rocky Mountains tomorrow (Thursday), with surface lee troughing and associated dry downslope flow anticipated across portions of the southern High Plains. For the afternoon hours, the latest guidance consensus depicts 15+ mph sustained south-southwesterly winds coinciding with 15-20 percent RH across eastern New Mexico into western Texas. With fuels being marginally receptive to wildfire spread, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...20z Update... Despite recent light precipitation including snow, rapidly warming temperatures and a switch to southerly winds should support drying across much of the southern High Plains Thursday. Widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely with sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph and relative humidity of 15-20%. Localized critical conditions may also develop across parts of the western TX Panhandle where winds could gust closer to 30 mph with RH below 15% briefly. See previous discussion for additional information. Trimmed the eastern edge of the Elevated area away from heavier precipitation. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will approach the Rocky Mountains tomorrow (Thursday), with surface lee troughing and associated dry downslope flow anticipated across portions of the southern High Plains. For the afternoon hours, the latest guidance consensus depicts 15+ mph sustained south-southwesterly winds coinciding with 15-20 percent RH across eastern New Mexico into western Texas. With fuels being marginally receptive to wildfire spread, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...20z Update... Despite recent light precipitation including snow, rapidly warming temperatures and a switch to southerly winds should support drying across much of the southern High Plains Thursday. Widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely with sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph and relative humidity of 15-20%. Localized critical conditions may also develop across parts of the western TX Panhandle where winds could gust closer to 30 mph with RH below 15% briefly. See previous discussion for additional information. Trimmed the eastern edge of the Elevated area away from heavier precipitation. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will approach the Rocky Mountains tomorrow (Thursday), with surface lee troughing and associated dry downslope flow anticipated across portions of the southern High Plains. For the afternoon hours, the latest guidance consensus depicts 15+ mph sustained south-southwesterly winds coinciding with 15-20 percent RH across eastern New Mexico into western Texas. With fuels being marginally receptive to wildfire spread, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...20z Update... Despite recent light precipitation including snow, rapidly warming temperatures and a switch to southerly winds should support drying across much of the southern High Plains Thursday. Widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely with sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph and relative humidity of 15-20%. Localized critical conditions may also develop across parts of the western TX Panhandle where winds could gust closer to 30 mph with RH below 15% briefly. See previous discussion for additional information. Trimmed the eastern edge of the Elevated area away from heavier precipitation. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will approach the Rocky Mountains tomorrow (Thursday), with surface lee troughing and associated dry downslope flow anticipated across portions of the southern High Plains. For the afternoon hours, the latest guidance consensus depicts 15+ mph sustained south-southwesterly winds coinciding with 15-20 percent RH across eastern New Mexico into western Texas. With fuels being marginally receptive to wildfire spread, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...20z Update... Despite recent light precipitation including snow, rapidly warming temperatures and a switch to southerly winds should support drying across much of the southern High Plains Thursday. Widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely with sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph and relative humidity of 15-20%. Localized critical conditions may also develop across parts of the western TX Panhandle where winds could gust closer to 30 mph with RH below 15% briefly. See previous discussion for additional information. Trimmed the eastern edge of the Elevated area away from heavier precipitation. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will approach the Rocky Mountains tomorrow (Thursday), with surface lee troughing and associated dry downslope flow anticipated across portions of the southern High Plains. For the afternoon hours, the latest guidance consensus depicts 15+ mph sustained south-southwesterly winds coinciding with 15-20 percent RH across eastern New Mexico into western Texas. With fuels being marginally receptive to wildfire spread, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0309 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0309 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Areas affected...portions of the central Florida Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 271753Z - 271900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms may produce damaging winds and hail over the next hour. DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms off the coast of the Florida peninsula has shown an increase intensity as it moves inland. Surface objective analysis would suggest that MLCIN is still in place inland, though deep layer shear remains strong (45-50 kts). More robust portions of this line may produce localized large hail and damaging winds before it begins to weaken further inland. Overall this threat should remain brief and as such a watch is not likely to be needed. ..Thornton/Hart.. 03/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 28908327 29238282 29368237 29398201 29358173 29188138 28988136 28788150 28648161 28558175 28338226 28188267 28118291 28148324 28278330 28448331 28908327 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the eastern CONUS on Thursday, as another deep upper-level trough gradually moves eastward across the West. A surface cyclone is forecast to amplify and move northeastward just offshore of the Carolina coast, as a trailing cold front sweeps through the Florida Peninsula. While a favorable overlap of buoyancy and deep-layer shear will be in place across the FL Peninsula prior to the frontal passage, weakening large-scale ascent across the warm sector is currently expected to limit storm coverage and intensity. Otherwise, elevated convection may persist through the day across parts of the coastal Carolinas. Across parts of the Northwest, Great Basin, and northern Rockies, cold temperatures aloft associated with the upper-level trough may support weak convection capable of sporadic lightning flashes. Gusty winds may accompany convection across parts of eastern NV and western UT, but weak instability should limit the severe threat. ..Dean.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the eastern CONUS on Thursday, as another deep upper-level trough gradually moves eastward across the West. A surface cyclone is forecast to amplify and move northeastward just offshore of the Carolina coast, as a trailing cold front sweeps through the Florida Peninsula. While a favorable overlap of buoyancy and deep-layer shear will be in place across the FL Peninsula prior to the frontal passage, weakening large-scale ascent across the warm sector is currently expected to limit storm coverage and intensity. Otherwise, elevated convection may persist through the day across parts of the coastal Carolinas. Across parts of the Northwest, Great Basin, and northern Rockies, cold temperatures aloft associated with the upper-level trough may support weak convection capable of sporadic lightning flashes. Gusty winds may accompany convection across parts of eastern NV and western UT, but weak instability should limit the severe threat. ..Dean.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the eastern CONUS on Thursday, as another deep upper-level trough gradually moves eastward across the West. A surface cyclone is forecast to amplify and move northeastward just offshore of the Carolina coast, as a trailing cold front sweeps through the Florida Peninsula. While a favorable overlap of buoyancy and deep-layer shear will be in place across the FL Peninsula prior to the frontal passage, weakening large-scale ascent across the warm sector is currently expected to limit storm coverage and intensity. Otherwise, elevated convection may persist through the day across parts of the coastal Carolinas. Across parts of the Northwest, Great Basin, and northern Rockies, cold temperatures aloft associated with the upper-level trough may support weak convection capable of sporadic lightning flashes. Gusty winds may accompany convection across parts of eastern NV and western UT, but weak instability should limit the severe threat. ..Dean.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the eastern CONUS on Thursday, as another deep upper-level trough gradually moves eastward across the West. A surface cyclone is forecast to amplify and move northeastward just offshore of the Carolina coast, as a trailing cold front sweeps through the Florida Peninsula. While a favorable overlap of buoyancy and deep-layer shear will be in place across the FL Peninsula prior to the frontal passage, weakening large-scale ascent across the warm sector is currently expected to limit storm coverage and intensity. Otherwise, elevated convection may persist through the day across parts of the coastal Carolinas. Across parts of the Northwest, Great Basin, and northern Rockies, cold temperatures aloft associated with the upper-level trough may support weak convection capable of sporadic lightning flashes. Gusty winds may accompany convection across parts of eastern NV and western UT, but weak instability should limit the severe threat. ..Dean.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the eastern CONUS on Thursday, as another deep upper-level trough gradually moves eastward across the West. A surface cyclone is forecast to amplify and move northeastward just offshore of the Carolina coast, as a trailing cold front sweeps through the Florida Peninsula. While a favorable overlap of buoyancy and deep-layer shear will be in place across the FL Peninsula prior to the frontal passage, weakening large-scale ascent across the warm sector is currently expected to limit storm coverage and intensity. Otherwise, elevated convection may persist through the day across parts of the coastal Carolinas. Across parts of the Northwest, Great Basin, and northern Rockies, cold temperatures aloft associated with the upper-level trough may support weak convection capable of sporadic lightning flashes. Gusty winds may accompany convection across parts of eastern NV and western UT, but weak instability should limit the severe threat. ..Dean.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the eastern CONUS on Thursday, as another deep upper-level trough gradually moves eastward across the West. A surface cyclone is forecast to amplify and move northeastward just offshore of the Carolina coast, as a trailing cold front sweeps through the Florida Peninsula. While a favorable overlap of buoyancy and deep-layer shear will be in place across the FL Peninsula prior to the frontal passage, weakening large-scale ascent across the warm sector is currently expected to limit storm coverage and intensity. Otherwise, elevated convection may persist through the day across parts of the coastal Carolinas. Across parts of the Northwest, Great Basin, and northern Rockies, cold temperatures aloft associated with the upper-level trough may support weak convection capable of sporadic lightning flashes. Gusty winds may accompany convection across parts of eastern NV and western UT, but weak instability should limit the severe threat. ..Dean.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the eastern CONUS on Thursday, as another deep upper-level trough gradually moves eastward across the West. A surface cyclone is forecast to amplify and move northeastward just offshore of the Carolina coast, as a trailing cold front sweeps through the Florida Peninsula. While a favorable overlap of buoyancy and deep-layer shear will be in place across the FL Peninsula prior to the frontal passage, weakening large-scale ascent across the warm sector is currently expected to limit storm coverage and intensity. Otherwise, elevated convection may persist through the day across parts of the coastal Carolinas. Across parts of the Northwest, Great Basin, and northern Rockies, cold temperatures aloft associated with the upper-level trough may support weak convection capable of sporadic lightning flashes. Gusty winds may accompany convection across parts of eastern NV and western UT, but weak instability should limit the severe threat. ..Dean.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the eastern CONUS on Thursday, as another deep upper-level trough gradually moves eastward across the West. A surface cyclone is forecast to amplify and move northeastward just offshore of the Carolina coast, as a trailing cold front sweeps through the Florida Peninsula. While a favorable overlap of buoyancy and deep-layer shear will be in place across the FL Peninsula prior to the frontal passage, weakening large-scale ascent across the warm sector is currently expected to limit storm coverage and intensity. Otherwise, elevated convection may persist through the day across parts of the coastal Carolinas. Across parts of the Northwest, Great Basin, and northern Rockies, cold temperatures aloft associated with the upper-level trough may support weak convection capable of sporadic lightning flashes. Gusty winds may accompany convection across parts of eastern NV and western UT, but weak instability should limit the severe threat. ..Dean.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the eastern CONUS on Thursday, as another deep upper-level trough gradually moves eastward across the West. A surface cyclone is forecast to amplify and move northeastward just offshore of the Carolina coast, as a trailing cold front sweeps through the Florida Peninsula. While a favorable overlap of buoyancy and deep-layer shear will be in place across the FL Peninsula prior to the frontal passage, weakening large-scale ascent across the warm sector is currently expected to limit storm coverage and intensity. Otherwise, elevated convection may persist through the day across parts of the coastal Carolinas. Across parts of the Northwest, Great Basin, and northern Rockies, cold temperatures aloft associated with the upper-level trough may support weak convection capable of sporadic lightning flashes. Gusty winds may accompany convection across parts of eastern NV and western UT, but weak instability should limit the severe threat. ..Dean.. 03/27/2024 Read more