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WW 0009 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 7 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW CRE TO 15 SSE FAY TO 30 NW RIC. ..THORNTON..01/09/24 ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...MHX...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 7 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-017-019-031-041-047-049-061-065-073-079-083-091-101- 103-107-117-127-129-131-137-141-147-163-185-187-191-195- 100040- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE BLADEN BRUNSWICK CARTERET CHOWAN COLUMBUS CRAVEN DUPLIN EDGECOMBE GATES GREENE HALIFAX HERTFORD JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR MARTIN NASH NEW HANOVER NORTHAMPTON PAMLICO PENDER PITT SAMPSON WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON VAC025-036-041-053-081-087-093-095-149-175-181-183-199-570-595- 620-650-670-700-730-760-800-830-100040- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0009 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 7 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW CRE TO 15 SSE FAY TO 30 NW RIC. ..THORNTON..01/09/24 ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...MHX...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 7 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-017-019-031-041-047-049-061-065-073-079-083-091-101- 103-107-117-127-129-131-137-141-147-163-185-187-191-195- 100040- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE BLADEN BRUNSWICK CARTERET CHOWAN COLUMBUS CRAVEN DUPLIN EDGECOMBE GATES GREENE HALIFAX HERTFORD JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR MARTIN NASH NEW HANOVER NORTHAMPTON PAMLICO PENDER PITT SAMPSON WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON VAC025-036-041-053-081-087-093-095-149-175-181-183-199-570-595- 620-650-670-700-730-760-800-830-100040- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0009 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 7 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW CRE TO 15 SSE FAY TO 30 NW RIC. ..THORNTON..01/09/24 ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...MHX...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 7 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-017-019-031-041-047-049-061-065-073-079-083-091-101- 103-107-117-127-129-131-137-141-147-163-185-187-191-195- 100040- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE BLADEN BRUNSWICK CARTERET CHOWAN COLUMBUS CRAVEN DUPLIN EDGECOMBE GATES GREENE HALIFAX HERTFORD JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR MARTIN NASH NEW HANOVER NORTHAMPTON PAMLICO PENDER PITT SAMPSON WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON VAC025-036-041-053-081-087-093-095-149-175-181-183-199-570-595- 620-650-670-700-730-760-800-830-100040- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 0046 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHEAST OK...AND MUCH OF AR
Mesoscale Discussion 0046 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0828 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Areas affected...Northeast TX...southeast OK...and much of AR Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 120228Z - 120430Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for an initial round of strong to severe thunderstorms, with the primary risks being large hail and damaging winds. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage across parts of southeast OK, northeast TX, and much of AR this evening, largely aided by strengthening low-level warm advection evident in regional VWP data and observed 00Z soundings. Per the observed LZK 00Z sounding and RAP forecast soundings, storms evolving over central AR are likely elevated, though 50-60 kt of effective shear and a plume of steep lapse rates overspreading the region are supporting loosely organized storm structures with occasional midlevel rotation. The primary concern with this activity will be sporadic marginally severe hail, though localized clustering could support damaging winds as well. Farther southwest in northeast TX and southeast OK, a broken band of thunderstorms is evolving where low-level convergence is slightly stronger ahead of an evolving surface low in OK. Lower 60s dewpoints are gradually spreading north ahead of these storms (beneath steeper midlevel lapse rates), suggesting that an evolution to surface-based convection is possible. Similarly strong deep-layer shear will favor embedded supercell structures (with an attendant risk of large hail and damaging winds). However, if this activity can root at the surface, large clockwise-curved hodographs with strong streamwise vorticity could conditionally support a tornado or two. Overall, the need for a watch in the short-term is uncertain, though trends are being monitored. A second round of severe storms is expected along the cold front later tonight. ..Weinman/Goss.. 01/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD... LAT...LON 33169558 33739511 34399474 35069465 35529441 35849411 35999344 36049260 35919183 35769133 35509114 34559138 33999171 33669222 33439266 32749456 32769522 32919560 33169558 Read more

MD 0045 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA INTO EXTREME NORTHERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0045 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Areas affected...portions of central and southeastern Nebraska into extreme northern Kansas Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 112140Z - 120345Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow should increase into the evening hours, with 1-2 inch/hr rates possible. Heavy snow will be most likely in central Nebraska over the next couple of hours, becoming increasingly likely in southeast Nebraska in the 00-03Z period. DISCUSSION...A pronounced mid-level trough is ejecting into the Plains states, with a 120+ kt 300 mb jet streak overspreading the southern Plains. This places the central Plains in the left-exit region of the upper-jet (per 21Z mesoanalysis), resulting in plenty of divergence aloft. The low-level mass response has been for the surface low to intensify across the southern Plains. This supports an increase in surface-925 mb cold air advection beneath increasing intense 850-700 mb warm-air advection over central and eastern NE, where 700 mb frontogenesis is also now underway. Moderate snow has recently begun to fall in central Nebraska per surface observations, with snowfall rates expected to only increase with time as dynamic lift increases and the dendritic growth zone continues to saturate. Later this afternoon, the anticipated heavier snow bands may produce snowfall rates up to 1-2 inches/hour, where reduced visibility will also become a concern. Latest high-resolution model guidance consensus suggests that the heaviest snow should begin in the next couple of hours, and peak in intensity somewhere in the 00-03Z period, especially over southeastern NE. ..Squitieri.. 01/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 42230081 42039872 41419693 40749594 40189559 39849594 39749687 39739796 40089884 40609979 41350089 42230081 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARK-LA-TEX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail are possible tonight over the Ark-La-Tex, and in nearby parts of southeastern Oklahoma, east Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana. ...Ark-La-Tex... The latest water vapor imagery shows an progressive upper-level trough over the southern Rockies. An associated 90 to 120 knot mid-level jet will translate quickly through the base of the trough eastward into the southern Plains this evening. The exit region of the mid-level jet will overspread the Ark-La-Tex by late evening. Ahead of this feature, moisture advection will take place across northeast Texas, Louisiana and far southwest Arkansas, where surface dewpoints will likely increase in the lower 60s F. In response to increasing low-level moisture and steepening mid-level lapse rates, a pocket of instability will develop across the Ark-La-Tex by late evening. Thunderstorms are forecast initiate within this pocket of instability during the mid to late evening, and persist into the overnight period. These storms should develop a severe threat, with the threat aided by a split structure within the mid-level jet. Concerning the timing of initiation, scattered thunderstorms are expected to initiate in eastern Oklahoma around 03Z or 04Z, with additional storms and greater convective coverage, developing further to the south by 06Z. Considering that both deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent will be very strong, supercell development is expected. RAP forecast soundings around 08Z in far southwest Arkansas have MLCAPE near 1200 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 85 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rate approaching 8.0 C/km. This environment will support supercells with large hail. The more dominant and intense supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is expected to increase into the 300 to 350 m2/s2 range,, supporting a tornado threat. A strong tornado will be possible. As a line of intense storms develops and moves eastward across the Ark-La-Tex tonight, a wind-damage threat is also expected to develop. A few of the stronger wind gusts along the leading edge of the line could peak above 70 knots. The severe threat is expected to persist through the end of the period, as the line of storms approaches the Mississippi River. ...East Texas/Louisiana... The axis of the mid-level jet is forecast to move eastward across central and east Texas tonight. To the south of the mid-level jet axis, instability and large-scale ascent are forecast to decrease with southward extent. For this reason, any severe threat that develops should be more isolated. Even still, deep-layer shear will remain very strong, which could support a severe threat tonight. Large hail, wind damage and perhaps a tornado will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARK-LA-TEX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail are possible tonight over the Ark-La-Tex, and in nearby parts of southeastern Oklahoma, east Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana. ...Ark-La-Tex... The latest water vapor imagery shows an progressive upper-level trough over the southern Rockies. An associated 90 to 120 knot mid-level jet will translate quickly through the base of the trough eastward into the southern Plains this evening. The exit region of the mid-level jet will overspread the Ark-La-Tex by late evening. Ahead of this feature, moisture advection will take place across northeast Texas, Louisiana and far southwest Arkansas, where surface dewpoints will likely increase in the lower 60s F. In response to increasing low-level moisture and steepening mid-level lapse rates, a pocket of instability will develop across the Ark-La-Tex by late evening. Thunderstorms are forecast initiate within this pocket of instability during the mid to late evening, and persist into the overnight period. These storms should develop a severe threat, with the threat aided by a split structure within the mid-level jet. Concerning the timing of initiation, scattered thunderstorms are expected to initiate in eastern Oklahoma around 03Z or 04Z, with additional storms and greater convective coverage, developing further to the south by 06Z. Considering that both deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent will be very strong, supercell development is expected. RAP forecast soundings around 08Z in far southwest Arkansas have MLCAPE near 1200 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 85 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rate approaching 8.0 C/km. This environment will support supercells with large hail. The more dominant and intense supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is expected to increase into the 300 to 350 m2/s2 range,, supporting a tornado threat. A strong tornado will be possible. As a line of intense storms develops and moves eastward across the Ark-La-Tex tonight, a wind-damage threat is also expected to develop. A few of the stronger wind gusts along the leading edge of the line could peak above 70 knots. The severe threat is expected to persist through the end of the period, as the line of storms approaches the Mississippi River. ...East Texas/Louisiana... The axis of the mid-level jet is forecast to move eastward across central and east Texas tonight. To the south of the mid-level jet axis, instability and large-scale ascent are forecast to decrease with southward extent. For this reason, any severe threat that develops should be more isolated. Even still, deep-layer shear will remain very strong, which could support a severe threat tonight. Large hail, wind damage and perhaps a tornado will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARK-LA-TEX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail are possible tonight over the Ark-La-Tex, and in nearby parts of southeastern Oklahoma, east Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana. ...Ark-La-Tex... The latest water vapor imagery shows an progressive upper-level trough over the southern Rockies. An associated 90 to 120 knot mid-level jet will translate quickly through the base of the trough eastward into the southern Plains this evening. The exit region of the mid-level jet will overspread the Ark-La-Tex by late evening. Ahead of this feature, moisture advection will take place across northeast Texas, Louisiana and far southwest Arkansas, where surface dewpoints will likely increase in the lower 60s F. In response to increasing low-level moisture and steepening mid-level lapse rates, a pocket of instability will develop across the Ark-La-Tex by late evening. Thunderstorms are forecast initiate within this pocket of instability during the mid to late evening, and persist into the overnight period. These storms should develop a severe threat, with the threat aided by a split structure within the mid-level jet. Concerning the timing of initiation, scattered thunderstorms are expected to initiate in eastern Oklahoma around 03Z or 04Z, with additional storms and greater convective coverage, developing further to the south by 06Z. Considering that both deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent will be very strong, supercell development is expected. RAP forecast soundings around 08Z in far southwest Arkansas have MLCAPE near 1200 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 85 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rate approaching 8.0 C/km. This environment will support supercells with large hail. The more dominant and intense supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is expected to increase into the 300 to 350 m2/s2 range,, supporting a tornado threat. A strong tornado will be possible. As a line of intense storms develops and moves eastward across the Ark-La-Tex tonight, a wind-damage threat is also expected to develop. A few of the stronger wind gusts along the leading edge of the line could peak above 70 knots. The severe threat is expected to persist through the end of the period, as the line of storms approaches the Mississippi River. ...East Texas/Louisiana... The axis of the mid-level jet is forecast to move eastward across central and east Texas tonight. To the south of the mid-level jet axis, instability and large-scale ascent are forecast to decrease with southward extent. For this reason, any severe threat that develops should be more isolated. Even still, deep-layer shear will remain very strong, which could support a severe threat tonight. Large hail, wind damage and perhaps a tornado will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARK-LA-TEX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail are possible tonight over the Ark-La-Tex, and in nearby parts of southeastern Oklahoma, east Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana. ...Ark-La-Tex... The latest water vapor imagery shows an progressive upper-level trough over the southern Rockies. An associated 90 to 120 knot mid-level jet will translate quickly through the base of the trough eastward into the southern Plains this evening. The exit region of the mid-level jet will overspread the Ark-La-Tex by late evening. Ahead of this feature, moisture advection will take place across northeast Texas, Louisiana and far southwest Arkansas, where surface dewpoints will likely increase in the lower 60s F. In response to increasing low-level moisture and steepening mid-level lapse rates, a pocket of instability will develop across the Ark-La-Tex by late evening. Thunderstorms are forecast initiate within this pocket of instability during the mid to late evening, and persist into the overnight period. These storms should develop a severe threat, with the threat aided by a split structure within the mid-level jet. Concerning the timing of initiation, scattered thunderstorms are expected to initiate in eastern Oklahoma around 03Z or 04Z, with additional storms and greater convective coverage, developing further to the south by 06Z. Considering that both deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent will be very strong, supercell development is expected. RAP forecast soundings around 08Z in far southwest Arkansas have MLCAPE near 1200 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 85 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rate approaching 8.0 C/km. This environment will support supercells with large hail. The more dominant and intense supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is expected to increase into the 300 to 350 m2/s2 range,, supporting a tornado threat. A strong tornado will be possible. As a line of intense storms develops and moves eastward across the Ark-La-Tex tonight, a wind-damage threat is also expected to develop. A few of the stronger wind gusts along the leading edge of the line could peak above 70 knots. The severe threat is expected to persist through the end of the period, as the line of storms approaches the Mississippi River. ...East Texas/Louisiana... The axis of the mid-level jet is forecast to move eastward across central and east Texas tonight. To the south of the mid-level jet axis, instability and large-scale ascent are forecast to decrease with southward extent. For this reason, any severe threat that develops should be more isolated. Even still, deep-layer shear will remain very strong, which could support a severe threat tonight. Large hail, wind damage and perhaps a tornado will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARK-LA-TEX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail are possible tonight over the Ark-La-Tex, and in nearby parts of southeastern Oklahoma, east Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana. ...Ark-La-Tex... The latest water vapor imagery shows an progressive upper-level trough over the southern Rockies. An associated 90 to 120 knot mid-level jet will translate quickly through the base of the trough eastward into the southern Plains this evening. The exit region of the mid-level jet will overspread the Ark-La-Tex by late evening. Ahead of this feature, moisture advection will take place across northeast Texas, Louisiana and far southwest Arkansas, where surface dewpoints will likely increase in the lower 60s F. In response to increasing low-level moisture and steepening mid-level lapse rates, a pocket of instability will develop across the Ark-La-Tex by late evening. Thunderstorms are forecast initiate within this pocket of instability during the mid to late evening, and persist into the overnight period. These storms should develop a severe threat, with the threat aided by a split structure within the mid-level jet. Concerning the timing of initiation, scattered thunderstorms are expected to initiate in eastern Oklahoma around 03Z or 04Z, with additional storms and greater convective coverage, developing further to the south by 06Z. Considering that both deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent will be very strong, supercell development is expected. RAP forecast soundings around 08Z in far southwest Arkansas have MLCAPE near 1200 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 85 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rate approaching 8.0 C/km. This environment will support supercells with large hail. The more dominant and intense supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is expected to increase into the 300 to 350 m2/s2 range,, supporting a tornado threat. A strong tornado will be possible. As a line of intense storms develops and moves eastward across the Ark-La-Tex tonight, a wind-damage threat is also expected to develop. A few of the stronger wind gusts along the leading edge of the line could peak above 70 knots. The severe threat is expected to persist through the end of the period, as the line of storms approaches the Mississippi River. ...East Texas/Louisiana... The axis of the mid-level jet is forecast to move eastward across central and east Texas tonight. To the south of the mid-level jet axis, instability and large-scale ascent are forecast to decrease with southward extent. For this reason, any severe threat that develops should be more isolated. Even still, deep-layer shear will remain very strong, which could support a severe threat tonight. Large hail, wind damage and perhaps a tornado will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARK-LA-TEX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail are possible tonight over the Ark-La-Tex, and in nearby parts of southeastern Oklahoma, east Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana. ...Ark-La-Tex... The latest water vapor imagery shows an progressive upper-level trough over the southern Rockies. An associated 90 to 120 knot mid-level jet will translate quickly through the base of the trough eastward into the southern Plains this evening. The exit region of the mid-level jet will overspread the Ark-La-Tex by late evening. Ahead of this feature, moisture advection will take place across northeast Texas, Louisiana and far southwest Arkansas, where surface dewpoints will likely increase in the lower 60s F. In response to increasing low-level moisture and steepening mid-level lapse rates, a pocket of instability will develop across the Ark-La-Tex by late evening. Thunderstorms are forecast initiate within this pocket of instability during the mid to late evening, and persist into the overnight period. These storms should develop a severe threat, with the threat aided by a split structure within the mid-level jet. Concerning the timing of initiation, scattered thunderstorms are expected to initiate in eastern Oklahoma around 03Z or 04Z, with additional storms and greater convective coverage, developing further to the south by 06Z. Considering that both deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent will be very strong, supercell development is expected. RAP forecast soundings around 08Z in far southwest Arkansas have MLCAPE near 1200 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 85 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rate approaching 8.0 C/km. This environment will support supercells with large hail. The more dominant and intense supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is expected to increase into the 300 to 350 m2/s2 range,, supporting a tornado threat. A strong tornado will be possible. As a line of intense storms develops and moves eastward across the Ark-La-Tex tonight, a wind-damage threat is also expected to develop. A few of the stronger wind gusts along the leading edge of the line could peak above 70 knots. The severe threat is expected to persist through the end of the period, as the line of storms approaches the Mississippi River. ...East Texas/Louisiana... The axis of the mid-level jet is forecast to move eastward across central and east Texas tonight. To the south of the mid-level jet axis, instability and large-scale ascent are forecast to decrease with southward extent. For this reason, any severe threat that develops should be more isolated. Even still, deep-layer shear will remain very strong, which could support a severe threat tonight. Large hail, wind damage and perhaps a tornado will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 01/12/2024 Read more

The South Carolina Drought Response Committee met on Jan. 11 and declared that the entire state was free of drought. Significant rainfall since mid-December allowed the committee to lift the incipient drought status for 16 counties and the moderate drought status of seven counties. Morning Ag Clips (Greenwich, N.Y.), Jan 11, 2024

No watches are valid as of Thu Jan 11 22:38:01 UTC 2024.

MD 0045 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA INTO EXTREME NORTHERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0045 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Areas affected...portions of central and southeastern Nebraska into extreme northern Kansas Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 112140Z - 120345Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow should increase into the evening hours, with 1-2 inch/hr rates possible. Heavy snow will be most likely in central Nebraska over the next couple of hours, becoming increasingly likely in southeast Nebraska in the 00-03Z period. DISCUSSION...A pronounced mid-level trough is ejecting into the Plains states, with a 120+ kt 300 mb jet streak overspreading the southern Plains. This places the central Plains in the left-exit region of the upper-jet (per 21Z mesoanalysis), resulting in plenty of divergence aloft. The low-level mass response has been for the surface low to intensify across the southern Plains. This supports an increase in surface-925 mb cold air advection beneath increasing intense 850-700 mb warm-air advection over central and eastern NE, where 700 mb frontogenesis is also now underway. Moderate snow has recently begun to fall in central Nebraska per surface observations, with snowfall rates expected to only increase with time as dynamic lift increases and the dendritic growth zone continues to saturate. Later this afternoon, the anticipated heavier snow bands may produce snowfall rates up to 1-2 inches/hour, where reduced visibility will also become a concern. Latest high-resolution model guidance consensus suggests that the heaviest snow should begin in the next couple of hours, and peak in intensity somewhere in the 00-03Z period, especially over southeastern NE. ..Squitieri.. 01/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 42230081 42039872 41419693 40749594 40189559 39849594 39749687 39739796 40089884 40609979 41350089 42230081 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z The upper-level pattern during the extended period will generally feature broadly cyclonic flow across much of the CONUS east of the Intermountain West. Near and along the West Coast, an upper-level ridge is expected to persist through the period. Guidance suggests that this feature may eventually move eastward perhaps during the middle/latter portions of next week; however, uncertainty is rather high. This pattern will favor cold temperatures at the surface for a broad area through the middle of next week. Coupled with precipitation, these cold conditions should mitigate fire weather concerns for most areas through the period. Potential for elevated fire weather will exist in parts of the Trans-Pecos this Saturday/Sunday as weak surface trough develops ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough. There is some uncertainty on the strength of the surface winds given the modest trough. Further uncertainty exists with the spatial extent of the threat given the potential for the cold front push into the region from the east. ..Wendt.. 01/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z The upper-level pattern during the extended period will generally feature broadly cyclonic flow across much of the CONUS east of the Intermountain West. Near and along the West Coast, an upper-level ridge is expected to persist through the period. Guidance suggests that this feature may eventually move eastward perhaps during the middle/latter portions of next week; however, uncertainty is rather high. This pattern will favor cold temperatures at the surface for a broad area through the middle of next week. Coupled with precipitation, these cold conditions should mitigate fire weather concerns for most areas through the period. Potential for elevated fire weather will exist in parts of the Trans-Pecos this Saturday/Sunday as weak surface trough develops ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough. There is some uncertainty on the strength of the surface winds given the modest trough. Further uncertainty exists with the spatial extent of the threat given the potential for the cold front push into the region from the east. ..Wendt.. 01/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z The upper-level pattern during the extended period will generally feature broadly cyclonic flow across much of the CONUS east of the Intermountain West. Near and along the West Coast, an upper-level ridge is expected to persist through the period. Guidance suggests that this feature may eventually move eastward perhaps during the middle/latter portions of next week; however, uncertainty is rather high. This pattern will favor cold temperatures at the surface for a broad area through the middle of next week. Coupled with precipitation, these cold conditions should mitigate fire weather concerns for most areas through the period. Potential for elevated fire weather will exist in parts of the Trans-Pecos this Saturday/Sunday as weak surface trough develops ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough. There is some uncertainty on the strength of the surface winds given the modest trough. Further uncertainty exists with the spatial extent of the threat given the potential for the cold front push into the region from the east. ..Wendt.. 01/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z The upper-level pattern during the extended period will generally feature broadly cyclonic flow across much of the CONUS east of the Intermountain West. Near and along the West Coast, an upper-level ridge is expected to persist through the period. Guidance suggests that this feature may eventually move eastward perhaps during the middle/latter portions of next week; however, uncertainty is rather high. This pattern will favor cold temperatures at the surface for a broad area through the middle of next week. Coupled with precipitation, these cold conditions should mitigate fire weather concerns for most areas through the period. Potential for elevated fire weather will exist in parts of the Trans-Pecos this Saturday/Sunday as weak surface trough develops ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough. There is some uncertainty on the strength of the surface winds given the modest trough. Further uncertainty exists with the spatial extent of the threat given the potential for the cold front push into the region from the east. ..Wendt.. 01/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z The upper-level pattern during the extended period will generally feature broadly cyclonic flow across much of the CONUS east of the Intermountain West. Near and along the West Coast, an upper-level ridge is expected to persist through the period. Guidance suggests that this feature may eventually move eastward perhaps during the middle/latter portions of next week; however, uncertainty is rather high. This pattern will favor cold temperatures at the surface for a broad area through the middle of next week. Coupled with precipitation, these cold conditions should mitigate fire weather concerns for most areas through the period. Potential for elevated fire weather will exist in parts of the Trans-Pecos this Saturday/Sunday as weak surface trough develops ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough. There is some uncertainty on the strength of the surface winds given the modest trough. Further uncertainty exists with the spatial extent of the threat given the potential for the cold front push into the region from the east. ..Wendt.. 01/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0043 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO FAR WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 0043 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Areas affected...portions of east-central Arizona into far west-central New Mexico Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 111629Z - 112130Z SUMMARY...Periods of heavy snow are possible into the afternoon hours. Localized instances of 1-2 inch/hr snowfall rates may occur with the heaviest snow bands, which may also be accompanied by strong wind gusts and reduced visibility. The best chance for higher snowfall rates and stronger winds gusts will be in higher terrain areas. DISCUSSION...A surface cold front is progressing southeast across portions of the Lower Colorado River Basin this morning, providing some low-level convergence that is supporting an ongoing band of snow over central AZ. Deep-layer ascent is expected to increase further as a 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak overspreads the region, supporting convective snow bands (given sub-freezing surface temperatures, steep tropospheric lapse rates, and a near-saturated 700-500 mb layer per 15Z RAP forecast soundings and 16Z mesoanalysis). As such, 1-2 inch/hr snowfall rates may accompany the stronger snow bands later this morning into the afternoon hours. The best chance for heavier snow and strong wind gusts with reduced visibility will be in the higher terrain areas. Latest HREF guidance suggests that heavier snow and stronger winds are most likely in the 17-22Z period along the AZ/NM border. ..Squitieri.. 01/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR... LAT...LON 33890810 33460791 33240832 33160868 33210927 33390994 33721076 34431155 34841165 35081140 34560999 34120860 33890810 Read more