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WW 0067 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 31 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE CDS TO 15 W CSM TO 25 SW AVK TO 30 WSW P28. ..THORNTON..03/07/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...FWD...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 31 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC011-015-017-027-031-033-039-043-047-049-051-055-057-065-067- 073-075-083-087-093-103-109-137-141-149-151-080040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER DEWEY GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY GREER HARMON JACKSON JEFFERSON KINGFISHER KIOWA LOGAN MCCLAIN MAJOR NOBLE OKLAHOMA STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA WOODS TXC009-023-049-059-077-081-083-095-101-133-151-155-173-197-207- 235-253-269-275-307-335-353-383-399-415-417-429-431-433-441-447- 451-485-487-503-080040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR BROWN Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this afternoon into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...Discussion... Current forecast reasoning and outlook areas remains generally in line with prior outlooks, with widespread/all-hazards severe risk from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley. The main change in the current outlook update is a westward adjustment of thunder/severe probability lines across the Big Country and Concho Valley of Texas, where storms have initiated along a developing dryline a bit earlier, and farther west, than previously anticipated. Otherwise, the outlook remains largely unchanged at this time, aside from minor line tweaks to account for current convective evolution/development. ..Goss.. 04/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Embedded speed maxima (90-100+ kt 500 mb) from southern NM/far west TX to northwest Mexico will eject northeastward to OK this evening and MO overnight. An associated lee cyclone will deepen this afternoon across the TX South Plains and then progress into northwest OK this evening and the mid MS Valley by the end of the period. A broad/moist warm sector is in place from the southern Plains to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, beneath a warm elevated mixed layer with 8-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. The cap will weaken through the afternoon from the west, with thunderstorm initiation becoming likely by mid afternoon along a surface front from KS into MO/IL, and mid-late afternoon along the dryline from western/central OK into northwest TX. ...KS/MO/IL/IN through tonight... Scattered thunderstorm development is likely starting mid afternoon along the baroclinic zone from KS into MO, and storms will subsequently spread eastward along the warm front from MO into IL/IN. The environment will favor supercells capable of producing very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and a few tornadoes, with an isolated strong tornado possible. Storm mode will become messier into the overnight hours with upscale growth into clusters/line segments, with an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph), and a continued threat for tornadoes (possibly up to EF2) with embedded/QLCS circulations. ...OK/TX this afternoon into early tonight... The elevated mixed layer and associated cap, along with widespread clouds, will tend to delay surface-based storm development until mid-late afternoon, when forcing for ascent increases from the southwest with the approach of the mid-upper jet streak. By about 21z, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline from northwest TX into western OK, and storms will spread quickly northeastward into central/eastern OK through this evening/early tonight. Steep midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, in an environment with very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs favorable for multiple supercells with very large hail (3 inches in diameter or greater). The magnitude of the tornado threat is a bit less certain, given a weakness in the low-level shear until a more consolidated low-level jet response begins by late evening, when storm mergers and upscale growth become more probable into eastern OK/northwest AR/southwest MO early tonight. However, given the very strong flow and seasonably rich low-level moisture, there will be the potential for a couple of strong (roughly EF2) tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this afternoon into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...Discussion... Current forecast reasoning and outlook areas remains generally in line with prior outlooks, with widespread/all-hazards severe risk from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley. The main change in the current outlook update is a westward adjustment of thunder/severe probability lines across the Big Country and Concho Valley of Texas, where storms have initiated along a developing dryline a bit earlier, and farther west, than previously anticipated. Otherwise, the outlook remains largely unchanged at this time, aside from minor line tweaks to account for current convective evolution/development. ..Goss.. 04/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Embedded speed maxima (90-100+ kt 500 mb) from southern NM/far west TX to northwest Mexico will eject northeastward to OK this evening and MO overnight. An associated lee cyclone will deepen this afternoon across the TX South Plains and then progress into northwest OK this evening and the mid MS Valley by the end of the period. A broad/moist warm sector is in place from the southern Plains to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, beneath a warm elevated mixed layer with 8-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. The cap will weaken through the afternoon from the west, with thunderstorm initiation becoming likely by mid afternoon along a surface front from KS into MO/IL, and mid-late afternoon along the dryline from western/central OK into northwest TX. ...KS/MO/IL/IN through tonight... Scattered thunderstorm development is likely starting mid afternoon along the baroclinic zone from KS into MO, and storms will subsequently spread eastward along the warm front from MO into IL/IN. The environment will favor supercells capable of producing very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and a few tornadoes, with an isolated strong tornado possible. Storm mode will become messier into the overnight hours with upscale growth into clusters/line segments, with an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph), and a continued threat for tornadoes (possibly up to EF2) with embedded/QLCS circulations. ...OK/TX this afternoon into early tonight... The elevated mixed layer and associated cap, along with widespread clouds, will tend to delay surface-based storm development until mid-late afternoon, when forcing for ascent increases from the southwest with the approach of the mid-upper jet streak. By about 21z, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline from northwest TX into western OK, and storms will spread quickly northeastward into central/eastern OK through this evening/early tonight. Steep midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, in an environment with very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs favorable for multiple supercells with very large hail (3 inches in diameter or greater). The magnitude of the tornado threat is a bit less certain, given a weakness in the low-level shear until a more consolidated low-level jet response begins by late evening, when storm mergers and upscale growth become more probable into eastern OK/northwest AR/southwest MO early tonight. However, given the very strong flow and seasonably rich low-level moisture, there will be the potential for a couple of strong (roughly EF2) tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this afternoon into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...Discussion... Current forecast reasoning and outlook areas remains generally in line with prior outlooks, with widespread/all-hazards severe risk from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley. The main change in the current outlook update is a westward adjustment of thunder/severe probability lines across the Big Country and Concho Valley of Texas, where storms have initiated along a developing dryline a bit earlier, and farther west, than previously anticipated. Otherwise, the outlook remains largely unchanged at this time, aside from minor line tweaks to account for current convective evolution/development. ..Goss.. 04/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Embedded speed maxima (90-100+ kt 500 mb) from southern NM/far west TX to northwest Mexico will eject northeastward to OK this evening and MO overnight. An associated lee cyclone will deepen this afternoon across the TX South Plains and then progress into northwest OK this evening and the mid MS Valley by the end of the period. A broad/moist warm sector is in place from the southern Plains to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, beneath a warm elevated mixed layer with 8-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. The cap will weaken through the afternoon from the west, with thunderstorm initiation becoming likely by mid afternoon along a surface front from KS into MO/IL, and mid-late afternoon along the dryline from western/central OK into northwest TX. ...KS/MO/IL/IN through tonight... Scattered thunderstorm development is likely starting mid afternoon along the baroclinic zone from KS into MO, and storms will subsequently spread eastward along the warm front from MO into IL/IN. The environment will favor supercells capable of producing very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and a few tornadoes, with an isolated strong tornado possible. Storm mode will become messier into the overnight hours with upscale growth into clusters/line segments, with an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph), and a continued threat for tornadoes (possibly up to EF2) with embedded/QLCS circulations. ...OK/TX this afternoon into early tonight... The elevated mixed layer and associated cap, along with widespread clouds, will tend to delay surface-based storm development until mid-late afternoon, when forcing for ascent increases from the southwest with the approach of the mid-upper jet streak. By about 21z, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline from northwest TX into western OK, and storms will spread quickly northeastward into central/eastern OK through this evening/early tonight. Steep midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, in an environment with very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs favorable for multiple supercells with very large hail (3 inches in diameter or greater). The magnitude of the tornado threat is a bit less certain, given a weakness in the low-level shear until a more consolidated low-level jet response begins by late evening, when storm mergers and upscale growth become more probable into eastern OK/northwest AR/southwest MO early tonight. However, given the very strong flow and seasonably rich low-level moisture, there will be the potential for a couple of strong (roughly EF2) tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this afternoon into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...Discussion... Current forecast reasoning and outlook areas remains generally in line with prior outlooks, with widespread/all-hazards severe risk from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley. The main change in the current outlook update is a westward adjustment of thunder/severe probability lines across the Big Country and Concho Valley of Texas, where storms have initiated along a developing dryline a bit earlier, and farther west, than previously anticipated. Otherwise, the outlook remains largely unchanged at this time, aside from minor line tweaks to account for current convective evolution/development. ..Goss.. 04/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Embedded speed maxima (90-100+ kt 500 mb) from southern NM/far west TX to northwest Mexico will eject northeastward to OK this evening and MO overnight. An associated lee cyclone will deepen this afternoon across the TX South Plains and then progress into northwest OK this evening and the mid MS Valley by the end of the period. A broad/moist warm sector is in place from the southern Plains to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, beneath a warm elevated mixed layer with 8-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. The cap will weaken through the afternoon from the west, with thunderstorm initiation becoming likely by mid afternoon along a surface front from KS into MO/IL, and mid-late afternoon along the dryline from western/central OK into northwest TX. ...KS/MO/IL/IN through tonight... Scattered thunderstorm development is likely starting mid afternoon along the baroclinic zone from KS into MO, and storms will subsequently spread eastward along the warm front from MO into IL/IN. The environment will favor supercells capable of producing very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and a few tornadoes, with an isolated strong tornado possible. Storm mode will become messier into the overnight hours with upscale growth into clusters/line segments, with an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph), and a continued threat for tornadoes (possibly up to EF2) with embedded/QLCS circulations. ...OK/TX this afternoon into early tonight... The elevated mixed layer and associated cap, along with widespread clouds, will tend to delay surface-based storm development until mid-late afternoon, when forcing for ascent increases from the southwest with the approach of the mid-upper jet streak. By about 21z, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline from northwest TX into western OK, and storms will spread quickly northeastward into central/eastern OK through this evening/early tonight. Steep midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, in an environment with very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs favorable for multiple supercells with very large hail (3 inches in diameter or greater). The magnitude of the tornado threat is a bit less certain, given a weakness in the low-level shear until a more consolidated low-level jet response begins by late evening, when storm mergers and upscale growth become more probable into eastern OK/northwest AR/southwest MO early tonight. However, given the very strong flow and seasonably rich low-level moisture, there will be the potential for a couple of strong (roughly EF2) tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this afternoon into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...Discussion... Current forecast reasoning and outlook areas remains generally in line with prior outlooks, with widespread/all-hazards severe risk from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley. The main change in the current outlook update is a westward adjustment of thunder/severe probability lines across the Big Country and Concho Valley of Texas, where storms have initiated along a developing dryline a bit earlier, and farther west, than previously anticipated. Otherwise, the outlook remains largely unchanged at this time, aside from minor line tweaks to account for current convective evolution/development. ..Goss.. 04/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Embedded speed maxima (90-100+ kt 500 mb) from southern NM/far west TX to northwest Mexico will eject northeastward to OK this evening and MO overnight. An associated lee cyclone will deepen this afternoon across the TX South Plains and then progress into northwest OK this evening and the mid MS Valley by the end of the period. A broad/moist warm sector is in place from the southern Plains to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, beneath a warm elevated mixed layer with 8-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. The cap will weaken through the afternoon from the west, with thunderstorm initiation becoming likely by mid afternoon along a surface front from KS into MO/IL, and mid-late afternoon along the dryline from western/central OK into northwest TX. ...KS/MO/IL/IN through tonight... Scattered thunderstorm development is likely starting mid afternoon along the baroclinic zone from KS into MO, and storms will subsequently spread eastward along the warm front from MO into IL/IN. The environment will favor supercells capable of producing very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and a few tornadoes, with an isolated strong tornado possible. Storm mode will become messier into the overnight hours with upscale growth into clusters/line segments, with an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph), and a continued threat for tornadoes (possibly up to EF2) with embedded/QLCS circulations. ...OK/TX this afternoon into early tonight... The elevated mixed layer and associated cap, along with widespread clouds, will tend to delay surface-based storm development until mid-late afternoon, when forcing for ascent increases from the southwest with the approach of the mid-upper jet streak. By about 21z, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline from northwest TX into western OK, and storms will spread quickly northeastward into central/eastern OK through this evening/early tonight. Steep midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, in an environment with very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs favorable for multiple supercells with very large hail (3 inches in diameter or greater). The magnitude of the tornado threat is a bit less certain, given a weakness in the low-level shear until a more consolidated low-level jet response begins by late evening, when storm mergers and upscale growth become more probable into eastern OK/northwest AR/southwest MO early tonight. However, given the very strong flow and seasonably rich low-level moisture, there will be the potential for a couple of strong (roughly EF2) tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this afternoon into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...Discussion... Current forecast reasoning and outlook areas remains generally in line with prior outlooks, with widespread/all-hazards severe risk from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley. The main change in the current outlook update is a westward adjustment of thunder/severe probability lines across the Big Country and Concho Valley of Texas, where storms have initiated along a developing dryline a bit earlier, and farther west, than previously anticipated. Otherwise, the outlook remains largely unchanged at this time, aside from minor line tweaks to account for current convective evolution/development. ..Goss.. 04/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Embedded speed maxima (90-100+ kt 500 mb) from southern NM/far west TX to northwest Mexico will eject northeastward to OK this evening and MO overnight. An associated lee cyclone will deepen this afternoon across the TX South Plains and then progress into northwest OK this evening and the mid MS Valley by the end of the period. A broad/moist warm sector is in place from the southern Plains to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, beneath a warm elevated mixed layer with 8-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. The cap will weaken through the afternoon from the west, with thunderstorm initiation becoming likely by mid afternoon along a surface front from KS into MO/IL, and mid-late afternoon along the dryline from western/central OK into northwest TX. ...KS/MO/IL/IN through tonight... Scattered thunderstorm development is likely starting mid afternoon along the baroclinic zone from KS into MO, and storms will subsequently spread eastward along the warm front from MO into IL/IN. The environment will favor supercells capable of producing very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and a few tornadoes, with an isolated strong tornado possible. Storm mode will become messier into the overnight hours with upscale growth into clusters/line segments, with an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph), and a continued threat for tornadoes (possibly up to EF2) with embedded/QLCS circulations. ...OK/TX this afternoon into early tonight... The elevated mixed layer and associated cap, along with widespread clouds, will tend to delay surface-based storm development until mid-late afternoon, when forcing for ascent increases from the southwest with the approach of the mid-upper jet streak. By about 21z, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline from northwest TX into western OK, and storms will spread quickly northeastward into central/eastern OK through this evening/early tonight. Steep midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, in an environment with very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs favorable for multiple supercells with very large hail (3 inches in diameter or greater). The magnitude of the tornado threat is a bit less certain, given a weakness in the low-level shear until a more consolidated low-level jet response begins by late evening, when storm mergers and upscale growth become more probable into eastern OK/northwest AR/southwest MO early tonight. However, given the very strong flow and seasonably rich low-level moisture, there will be the potential for a couple of strong (roughly EF2) tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this afternoon into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...Discussion... Current forecast reasoning and outlook areas remains generally in line with prior outlooks, with widespread/all-hazards severe risk from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley. The main change in the current outlook update is a westward adjustment of thunder/severe probability lines across the Big Country and Concho Valley of Texas, where storms have initiated along a developing dryline a bit earlier, and farther west, than previously anticipated. Otherwise, the outlook remains largely unchanged at this time, aside from minor line tweaks to account for current convective evolution/development. ..Goss.. 04/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Embedded speed maxima (90-100+ kt 500 mb) from southern NM/far west TX to northwest Mexico will eject northeastward to OK this evening and MO overnight. An associated lee cyclone will deepen this afternoon across the TX South Plains and then progress into northwest OK this evening and the mid MS Valley by the end of the period. A broad/moist warm sector is in place from the southern Plains to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, beneath a warm elevated mixed layer with 8-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. The cap will weaken through the afternoon from the west, with thunderstorm initiation becoming likely by mid afternoon along a surface front from KS into MO/IL, and mid-late afternoon along the dryline from western/central OK into northwest TX. ...KS/MO/IL/IN through tonight... Scattered thunderstorm development is likely starting mid afternoon along the baroclinic zone from KS into MO, and storms will subsequently spread eastward along the warm front from MO into IL/IN. The environment will favor supercells capable of producing very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and a few tornadoes, with an isolated strong tornado possible. Storm mode will become messier into the overnight hours with upscale growth into clusters/line segments, with an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph), and a continued threat for tornadoes (possibly up to EF2) with embedded/QLCS circulations. ...OK/TX this afternoon into early tonight... The elevated mixed layer and associated cap, along with widespread clouds, will tend to delay surface-based storm development until mid-late afternoon, when forcing for ascent increases from the southwest with the approach of the mid-upper jet streak. By about 21z, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline from northwest TX into western OK, and storms will spread quickly northeastward into central/eastern OK through this evening/early tonight. Steep midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, in an environment with very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs favorable for multiple supercells with very large hail (3 inches in diameter or greater). The magnitude of the tornado threat is a bit less certain, given a weakness in the low-level shear until a more consolidated low-level jet response begins by late evening, when storm mergers and upscale growth become more probable into eastern OK/northwest AR/southwest MO early tonight. However, given the very strong flow and seasonably rich low-level moisture, there will be the potential for a couple of strong (roughly EF2) tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this afternoon into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...Discussion... Current forecast reasoning and outlook areas remains generally in line with prior outlooks, with widespread/all-hazards severe risk from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley. The main change in the current outlook update is a westward adjustment of thunder/severe probability lines across the Big Country and Concho Valley of Texas, where storms have initiated along a developing dryline a bit earlier, and farther west, than previously anticipated. Otherwise, the outlook remains largely unchanged at this time, aside from minor line tweaks to account for current convective evolution/development. ..Goss.. 04/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Embedded speed maxima (90-100+ kt 500 mb) from southern NM/far west TX to northwest Mexico will eject northeastward to OK this evening and MO overnight. An associated lee cyclone will deepen this afternoon across the TX South Plains and then progress into northwest OK this evening and the mid MS Valley by the end of the period. A broad/moist warm sector is in place from the southern Plains to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, beneath a warm elevated mixed layer with 8-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. The cap will weaken through the afternoon from the west, with thunderstorm initiation becoming likely by mid afternoon along a surface front from KS into MO/IL, and mid-late afternoon along the dryline from western/central OK into northwest TX. ...KS/MO/IL/IN through tonight... Scattered thunderstorm development is likely starting mid afternoon along the baroclinic zone from KS into MO, and storms will subsequently spread eastward along the warm front from MO into IL/IN. The environment will favor supercells capable of producing very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and a few tornadoes, with an isolated strong tornado possible. Storm mode will become messier into the overnight hours with upscale growth into clusters/line segments, with an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph), and a continued threat for tornadoes (possibly up to EF2) with embedded/QLCS circulations. ...OK/TX this afternoon into early tonight... The elevated mixed layer and associated cap, along with widespread clouds, will tend to delay surface-based storm development until mid-late afternoon, when forcing for ascent increases from the southwest with the approach of the mid-upper jet streak. By about 21z, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline from northwest TX into western OK, and storms will spread quickly northeastward into central/eastern OK through this evening/early tonight. Steep midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, in an environment with very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs favorable for multiple supercells with very large hail (3 inches in diameter or greater). The magnitude of the tornado threat is a bit less certain, given a weakness in the low-level shear until a more consolidated low-level jet response begins by late evening, when storm mergers and upscale growth become more probable into eastern OK/northwest AR/southwest MO early tonight. However, given the very strong flow and seasonably rich low-level moisture, there will be the potential for a couple of strong (roughly EF2) tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this afternoon into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...Discussion... Current forecast reasoning and outlook areas remains generally in line with prior outlooks, with widespread/all-hazards severe risk from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley. The main change in the current outlook update is a westward adjustment of thunder/severe probability lines across the Big Country and Concho Valley of Texas, where storms have initiated along a developing dryline a bit earlier, and farther west, than previously anticipated. Otherwise, the outlook remains largely unchanged at this time, aside from minor line tweaks to account for current convective evolution/development. ..Goss.. 04/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Embedded speed maxima (90-100+ kt 500 mb) from southern NM/far west TX to northwest Mexico will eject northeastward to OK this evening and MO overnight. An associated lee cyclone will deepen this afternoon across the TX South Plains and then progress into northwest OK this evening and the mid MS Valley by the end of the period. A broad/moist warm sector is in place from the southern Plains to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, beneath a warm elevated mixed layer with 8-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. The cap will weaken through the afternoon from the west, with thunderstorm initiation becoming likely by mid afternoon along a surface front from KS into MO/IL, and mid-late afternoon along the dryline from western/central OK into northwest TX. ...KS/MO/IL/IN through tonight... Scattered thunderstorm development is likely starting mid afternoon along the baroclinic zone from KS into MO, and storms will subsequently spread eastward along the warm front from MO into IL/IN. The environment will favor supercells capable of producing very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and a few tornadoes, with an isolated strong tornado possible. Storm mode will become messier into the overnight hours with upscale growth into clusters/line segments, with an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph), and a continued threat for tornadoes (possibly up to EF2) with embedded/QLCS circulations. ...OK/TX this afternoon into early tonight... The elevated mixed layer and associated cap, along with widespread clouds, will tend to delay surface-based storm development until mid-late afternoon, when forcing for ascent increases from the southwest with the approach of the mid-upper jet streak. By about 21z, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline from northwest TX into western OK, and storms will spread quickly northeastward into central/eastern OK through this evening/early tonight. Steep midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, in an environment with very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs favorable for multiple supercells with very large hail (3 inches in diameter or greater). The magnitude of the tornado threat is a bit less certain, given a weakness in the low-level shear until a more consolidated low-level jet response begins by late evening, when storm mergers and upscale growth become more probable into eastern OK/northwest AR/southwest MO early tonight. However, given the very strong flow and seasonably rich low-level moisture, there will be the potential for a couple of strong (roughly EF2) tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this afternoon into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...Discussion... Current forecast reasoning and outlook areas remains generally in line with prior outlooks, with widespread/all-hazards severe risk from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley. The main change in the current outlook update is a westward adjustment of thunder/severe probability lines across the Big Country and Concho Valley of Texas, where storms have initiated along a developing dryline a bit earlier, and farther west, than previously anticipated. Otherwise, the outlook remains largely unchanged at this time, aside from minor line tweaks to account for current convective evolution/development. ..Goss.. 04/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Embedded speed maxima (90-100+ kt 500 mb) from southern NM/far west TX to northwest Mexico will eject northeastward to OK this evening and MO overnight. An associated lee cyclone will deepen this afternoon across the TX South Plains and then progress into northwest OK this evening and the mid MS Valley by the end of the period. A broad/moist warm sector is in place from the southern Plains to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, beneath a warm elevated mixed layer with 8-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. The cap will weaken through the afternoon from the west, with thunderstorm initiation becoming likely by mid afternoon along a surface front from KS into MO/IL, and mid-late afternoon along the dryline from western/central OK into northwest TX. ...KS/MO/IL/IN through tonight... Scattered thunderstorm development is likely starting mid afternoon along the baroclinic zone from KS into MO, and storms will subsequently spread eastward along the warm front from MO into IL/IN. The environment will favor supercells capable of producing very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and a few tornadoes, with an isolated strong tornado possible. Storm mode will become messier into the overnight hours with upscale growth into clusters/line segments, with an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph), and a continued threat for tornadoes (possibly up to EF2) with embedded/QLCS circulations. ...OK/TX this afternoon into early tonight... The elevated mixed layer and associated cap, along with widespread clouds, will tend to delay surface-based storm development until mid-late afternoon, when forcing for ascent increases from the southwest with the approach of the mid-upper jet streak. By about 21z, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline from northwest TX into western OK, and storms will spread quickly northeastward into central/eastern OK through this evening/early tonight. Steep midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, in an environment with very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs favorable for multiple supercells with very large hail (3 inches in diameter or greater). The magnitude of the tornado threat is a bit less certain, given a weakness in the low-level shear until a more consolidated low-level jet response begins by late evening, when storm mergers and upscale growth become more probable into eastern OK/northwest AR/southwest MO early tonight. However, given the very strong flow and seasonably rich low-level moisture, there will be the potential for a couple of strong (roughly EF2) tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this afternoon into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...Discussion... Current forecast reasoning and outlook areas remains generally in line with prior outlooks, with widespread/all-hazards severe risk from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley. The main change in the current outlook update is a westward adjustment of thunder/severe probability lines across the Big Country and Concho Valley of Texas, where storms have initiated along a developing dryline a bit earlier, and farther west, than previously anticipated. Otherwise, the outlook remains largely unchanged at this time, aside from minor line tweaks to account for current convective evolution/development. ..Goss.. 04/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Embedded speed maxima (90-100+ kt 500 mb) from southern NM/far west TX to northwest Mexico will eject northeastward to OK this evening and MO overnight. An associated lee cyclone will deepen this afternoon across the TX South Plains and then progress into northwest OK this evening and the mid MS Valley by the end of the period. A broad/moist warm sector is in place from the southern Plains to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, beneath a warm elevated mixed layer with 8-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. The cap will weaken through the afternoon from the west, with thunderstorm initiation becoming likely by mid afternoon along a surface front from KS into MO/IL, and mid-late afternoon along the dryline from western/central OK into northwest TX. ...KS/MO/IL/IN through tonight... Scattered thunderstorm development is likely starting mid afternoon along the baroclinic zone from KS into MO, and storms will subsequently spread eastward along the warm front from MO into IL/IN. The environment will favor supercells capable of producing very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and a few tornadoes, with an isolated strong tornado possible. Storm mode will become messier into the overnight hours with upscale growth into clusters/line segments, with an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph), and a continued threat for tornadoes (possibly up to EF2) with embedded/QLCS circulations. ...OK/TX this afternoon into early tonight... The elevated mixed layer and associated cap, along with widespread clouds, will tend to delay surface-based storm development until mid-late afternoon, when forcing for ascent increases from the southwest with the approach of the mid-upper jet streak. By about 21z, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline from northwest TX into western OK, and storms will spread quickly northeastward into central/eastern OK through this evening/early tonight. Steep midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, in an environment with very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs favorable for multiple supercells with very large hail (3 inches in diameter or greater). The magnitude of the tornado threat is a bit less certain, given a weakness in the low-level shear until a more consolidated low-level jet response begins by late evening, when storm mergers and upscale growth become more probable into eastern OK/northwest AR/southwest MO early tonight. However, given the very strong flow and seasonably rich low-level moisture, there will be the potential for a couple of strong (roughly EF2) tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this afternoon into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...Discussion... Current forecast reasoning and outlook areas remains generally in line with prior outlooks, with widespread/all-hazards severe risk from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley. The main change in the current outlook update is a westward adjustment of thunder/severe probability lines across the Big Country and Concho Valley of Texas, where storms have initiated along a developing dryline a bit earlier, and farther west, than previously anticipated. Otherwise, the outlook remains largely unchanged at this time, aside from minor line tweaks to account for current convective evolution/development. ..Goss.. 04/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Embedded speed maxima (90-100+ kt 500 mb) from southern NM/far west TX to northwest Mexico will eject northeastward to OK this evening and MO overnight. An associated lee cyclone will deepen this afternoon across the TX South Plains and then progress into northwest OK this evening and the mid MS Valley by the end of the period. A broad/moist warm sector is in place from the southern Plains to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, beneath a warm elevated mixed layer with 8-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. The cap will weaken through the afternoon from the west, with thunderstorm initiation becoming likely by mid afternoon along a surface front from KS into MO/IL, and mid-late afternoon along the dryline from western/central OK into northwest TX. ...KS/MO/IL/IN through tonight... Scattered thunderstorm development is likely starting mid afternoon along the baroclinic zone from KS into MO, and storms will subsequently spread eastward along the warm front from MO into IL/IN. The environment will favor supercells capable of producing very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and a few tornadoes, with an isolated strong tornado possible. Storm mode will become messier into the overnight hours with upscale growth into clusters/line segments, with an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph), and a continued threat for tornadoes (possibly up to EF2) with embedded/QLCS circulations. ...OK/TX this afternoon into early tonight... The elevated mixed layer and associated cap, along with widespread clouds, will tend to delay surface-based storm development until mid-late afternoon, when forcing for ascent increases from the southwest with the approach of the mid-upper jet streak. By about 21z, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline from northwest TX into western OK, and storms will spread quickly northeastward into central/eastern OK through this evening/early tonight. Steep midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, in an environment with very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs favorable for multiple supercells with very large hail (3 inches in diameter or greater). The magnitude of the tornado threat is a bit less certain, given a weakness in the low-level shear until a more consolidated low-level jet response begins by late evening, when storm mergers and upscale growth become more probable into eastern OK/northwest AR/southwest MO early tonight. However, given the very strong flow and seasonably rich low-level moisture, there will be the potential for a couple of strong (roughly EF2) tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this afternoon into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...Discussion... Current forecast reasoning and outlook areas remains generally in line with prior outlooks, with widespread/all-hazards severe risk from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley. The main change in the current outlook update is a westward adjustment of thunder/severe probability lines across the Big Country and Concho Valley of Texas, where storms have initiated along a developing dryline a bit earlier, and farther west, than previously anticipated. Otherwise, the outlook remains largely unchanged at this time, aside from minor line tweaks to account for current convective evolution/development. ..Goss.. 04/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Embedded speed maxima (90-100+ kt 500 mb) from southern NM/far west TX to northwest Mexico will eject northeastward to OK this evening and MO overnight. An associated lee cyclone will deepen this afternoon across the TX South Plains and then progress into northwest OK this evening and the mid MS Valley by the end of the period. A broad/moist warm sector is in place from the southern Plains to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, beneath a warm elevated mixed layer with 8-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. The cap will weaken through the afternoon from the west, with thunderstorm initiation becoming likely by mid afternoon along a surface front from KS into MO/IL, and mid-late afternoon along the dryline from western/central OK into northwest TX. ...KS/MO/IL/IN through tonight... Scattered thunderstorm development is likely starting mid afternoon along the baroclinic zone from KS into MO, and storms will subsequently spread eastward along the warm front from MO into IL/IN. The environment will favor supercells capable of producing very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and a few tornadoes, with an isolated strong tornado possible. Storm mode will become messier into the overnight hours with upscale growth into clusters/line segments, with an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph), and a continued threat for tornadoes (possibly up to EF2) with embedded/QLCS circulations. ...OK/TX this afternoon into early tonight... The elevated mixed layer and associated cap, along with widespread clouds, will tend to delay surface-based storm development until mid-late afternoon, when forcing for ascent increases from the southwest with the approach of the mid-upper jet streak. By about 21z, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline from northwest TX into western OK, and storms will spread quickly northeastward into central/eastern OK through this evening/early tonight. Steep midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, in an environment with very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs favorable for multiple supercells with very large hail (3 inches in diameter or greater). The magnitude of the tornado threat is a bit less certain, given a weakness in the low-level shear until a more consolidated low-level jet response begins by late evening, when storm mergers and upscale growth become more probable into eastern OK/northwest AR/southwest MO early tonight. However, given the very strong flow and seasonably rich low-level moisture, there will be the potential for a couple of strong (roughly EF2) tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this afternoon into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...Discussion... Current forecast reasoning and outlook areas remains generally in line with prior outlooks, with widespread/all-hazards severe risk from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley. The main change in the current outlook update is a westward adjustment of thunder/severe probability lines across the Big Country and Concho Valley of Texas, where storms have initiated along a developing dryline a bit earlier, and farther west, than previously anticipated. Otherwise, the outlook remains largely unchanged at this time, aside from minor line tweaks to account for current convective evolution/development. ..Goss.. 04/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Embedded speed maxima (90-100+ kt 500 mb) from southern NM/far west TX to northwest Mexico will eject northeastward to OK this evening and MO overnight. An associated lee cyclone will deepen this afternoon across the TX South Plains and then progress into northwest OK this evening and the mid MS Valley by the end of the period. A broad/moist warm sector is in place from the southern Plains to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, beneath a warm elevated mixed layer with 8-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. The cap will weaken through the afternoon from the west, with thunderstorm initiation becoming likely by mid afternoon along a surface front from KS into MO/IL, and mid-late afternoon along the dryline from western/central OK into northwest TX. ...KS/MO/IL/IN through tonight... Scattered thunderstorm development is likely starting mid afternoon along the baroclinic zone from KS into MO, and storms will subsequently spread eastward along the warm front from MO into IL/IN. The environment will favor supercells capable of producing very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and a few tornadoes, with an isolated strong tornado possible. Storm mode will become messier into the overnight hours with upscale growth into clusters/line segments, with an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph), and a continued threat for tornadoes (possibly up to EF2) with embedded/QLCS circulations. ...OK/TX this afternoon into early tonight... The elevated mixed layer and associated cap, along with widespread clouds, will tend to delay surface-based storm development until mid-late afternoon, when forcing for ascent increases from the southwest with the approach of the mid-upper jet streak. By about 21z, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline from northwest TX into western OK, and storms will spread quickly northeastward into central/eastern OK through this evening/early tonight. Steep midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, in an environment with very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs favorable for multiple supercells with very large hail (3 inches in diameter or greater). The magnitude of the tornado threat is a bit less certain, given a weakness in the low-level shear until a more consolidated low-level jet response begins by late evening, when storm mergers and upscale growth become more probable into eastern OK/northwest AR/southwest MO early tonight. However, given the very strong flow and seasonably rich low-level moisture, there will be the potential for a couple of strong (roughly EF2) tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this afternoon into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...Discussion... Current forecast reasoning and outlook areas remains generally in line with prior outlooks, with widespread/all-hazards severe risk from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley. The main change in the current outlook update is a westward adjustment of thunder/severe probability lines across the Big Country and Concho Valley of Texas, where storms have initiated along a developing dryline a bit earlier, and farther west, than previously anticipated. Otherwise, the outlook remains largely unchanged at this time, aside from minor line tweaks to account for current convective evolution/development. ..Goss.. 04/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Embedded speed maxima (90-100+ kt 500 mb) from southern NM/far west TX to northwest Mexico will eject northeastward to OK this evening and MO overnight. An associated lee cyclone will deepen this afternoon across the TX South Plains and then progress into northwest OK this evening and the mid MS Valley by the end of the period. A broad/moist warm sector is in place from the southern Plains to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, beneath a warm elevated mixed layer with 8-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. The cap will weaken through the afternoon from the west, with thunderstorm initiation becoming likely by mid afternoon along a surface front from KS into MO/IL, and mid-late afternoon along the dryline from western/central OK into northwest TX. ...KS/MO/IL/IN through tonight... Scattered thunderstorm development is likely starting mid afternoon along the baroclinic zone from KS into MO, and storms will subsequently spread eastward along the warm front from MO into IL/IN. The environment will favor supercells capable of producing very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and a few tornadoes, with an isolated strong tornado possible. Storm mode will become messier into the overnight hours with upscale growth into clusters/line segments, with an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph), and a continued threat for tornadoes (possibly up to EF2) with embedded/QLCS circulations. ...OK/TX this afternoon into early tonight... The elevated mixed layer and associated cap, along with widespread clouds, will tend to delay surface-based storm development until mid-late afternoon, when forcing for ascent increases from the southwest with the approach of the mid-upper jet streak. By about 21z, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline from northwest TX into western OK, and storms will spread quickly northeastward into central/eastern OK through this evening/early tonight. Steep midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, in an environment with very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs favorable for multiple supercells with very large hail (3 inches in diameter or greater). The magnitude of the tornado threat is a bit less certain, given a weakness in the low-level shear until a more consolidated low-level jet response begins by late evening, when storm mergers and upscale growth become more probable into eastern OK/northwest AR/southwest MO early tonight. However, given the very strong flow and seasonably rich low-level moisture, there will be the potential for a couple of strong (roughly EF2) tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight. Read more

MD 0320 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN KS
Mesoscale Discussion 0320 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Areas affected...Central/Eastern KS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 011813Z - 012015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of large to very large (1" to 2.5") hail are possible across central and eastern KS this afternoon. A strong gust or two is also possible. DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low over northeast KS with a cold front extending southwestward from this low through south-central KS. Low-level stability remains within much of the region ahead of this front, where the surface conditions are characterized by temperatures in the low/mid 70s and dewpoints in the low 60s amid widespread cloud cover. Even so, steep mid-level lapse rates are in place and the combination of broad warm-air advection and ascent along the front is expected to result in convective initiation within the next hour or two. Given the initially elevated and embedded storm character, a somewhat messy storm mode is anticipated once initiation occurs. Even so, deep-layer vertical shear is quite strong, with recent mesoanalysis estimated 60 to 70 kt of 0-6 bulk shear. This shear is sufficient for updraft organization within in mature, deep updrafts. The presence of steep lapse rates will favor the development of large to very large hail (i.e. 1" to 2.5") within these mature and organized storms. Given the low-level stability and weak low-level shear, the tornado potential for the next few hours should remain low. However, further air mass destabilization and strengthening low-level flow over time may allow these storms to trend more surface based as they move eastward/northeast into MO, resulting in an increase tornado threat. ..Mosier/Thompson.. 04/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 37849748 39019596 39189492 38849439 38289427 37739441 37339466 37109498 36999567 37019691 37029750 37149833 37849748 Read more

WW 0066 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0066 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0066 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0066 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0065 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0065 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more