Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z A progressive upper pattern is expected through the week into early next week, with multiple mid-level troughs poised to traverse the CONUS up to the weekend. The progressing mid-level troughs will reinforce surface high pressure and an accompanying arctic airmass, limiting wildfire-spread potential over most locales. Guidance consistency continues to show surface low development over the southern High Plains on Wednesday in advance of one of the upper troughs. Here, downslope flow will encourage some dry/breezy conditions, but the lack of fuel receptiveness suggests that Critical probabilities are not currently warranted. By the weekend, upper-ridging will overspread the central CONUS before another mid-level trough ejects into the Plains states. While surface temperatures might rise above the freezing mark across the southern Plains by early next week, low-level moisture will also increase, keeping wildfire-spread concerns at a minimum. ..Squitieri.. 01/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z A progressive upper pattern is expected through the week into early next week, with multiple mid-level troughs poised to traverse the CONUS up to the weekend. The progressing mid-level troughs will reinforce surface high pressure and an accompanying arctic airmass, limiting wildfire-spread potential over most locales. Guidance consistency continues to show surface low development over the southern High Plains on Wednesday in advance of one of the upper troughs. Here, downslope flow will encourage some dry/breezy conditions, but the lack of fuel receptiveness suggests that Critical probabilities are not currently warranted. By the weekend, upper-ridging will overspread the central CONUS before another mid-level trough ejects into the Plains states. While surface temperatures might rise above the freezing mark across the southern Plains by early next week, low-level moisture will also increase, keeping wildfire-spread concerns at a minimum. ..Squitieri.. 01/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0068 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR LOUISIANA INTO MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0068 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Areas affected...Louisiana into Mississippi and northern Alabama Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 151717Z - 152115Z SUMMARY...A wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is expected to spread east from southeast Arkansas and northern Louisiana into Mississippi and northern Alabama through early afternoon. DISCUSSION...Surface observations, LSRs, and MPING reports over the past 1-2 hours continue to show a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain from the ArkLaTex region into northern MS/AL within a broad precipitation swath. Isentropic ascent over a 925-850 mb frontal zone is forecast to persist through early afternoon as a low-amplitude wave, currently over the southern Plains, migrates east. Recent sleet LSRs and forecast soundings suggest that a mix of snow and sleet will be more likely where surface temperatures are in the low 20s or lower. Areas where temperatures are in the mid-20s or higher should have too shallow/warm of a sub-freezing layer to support much re-freezing of hydrometeors, making a sleet/freezing rain mix more probable. Forecast guidance suggests that precipitation intensity may gradually wane heading into the mid-afternoon hours, but a zone of impactful wintry precipitation appears probable prior to this occurring. ..Moore.. 01/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 32389370 32969267 34238987 34948780 34978610 34718575 34368570 33158810 32298989 31939125 31739213 31609304 31669354 31849381 32109389 32389370 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... No appreciable changes have been made to the prior forecast. ..Gleason.. 01/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024/ ...Central FL this afternoon... Cyclonic flow aloft will persist over the CONUS from the Rockies eastward, with ridging over the Pacific coast. One embedded speed maxima will progress east-northeastward from the Mid-South to the Mid-Atlantic, in advance of an upstream wave moving from the central High Plains/Rockies to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys. The majority of the CONUS will be relatively cold/dry, with the only buoyant warm sector confined to the FL peninsula (and just off the southeast Atlantic coast tonight). The ongoing convection between Fort Meyers and Sarasota could persist through the afternoon while spreading east-northeastward along the warm front. There will be sufficient vertical shear/hodograph length for a weakly rotating storm within the cluster, but poor midlevel lapse rates and modest low-level flow/shear suggest that severe storms are unlikely. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... No appreciable changes have been made to the prior forecast. ..Gleason.. 01/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024/ ...Central FL this afternoon... Cyclonic flow aloft will persist over the CONUS from the Rockies eastward, with ridging over the Pacific coast. One embedded speed maxima will progress east-northeastward from the Mid-South to the Mid-Atlantic, in advance of an upstream wave moving from the central High Plains/Rockies to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys. The majority of the CONUS will be relatively cold/dry, with the only buoyant warm sector confined to the FL peninsula (and just off the southeast Atlantic coast tonight). The ongoing convection between Fort Meyers and Sarasota could persist through the afternoon while spreading east-northeastward along the warm front. There will be sufficient vertical shear/hodograph length for a weakly rotating storm within the cluster, but poor midlevel lapse rates and modest low-level flow/shear suggest that severe storms are unlikely. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... No appreciable changes have been made to the prior forecast. ..Gleason.. 01/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024/ ...Central FL this afternoon... Cyclonic flow aloft will persist over the CONUS from the Rockies eastward, with ridging over the Pacific coast. One embedded speed maxima will progress east-northeastward from the Mid-South to the Mid-Atlantic, in advance of an upstream wave moving from the central High Plains/Rockies to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys. The majority of the CONUS will be relatively cold/dry, with the only buoyant warm sector confined to the FL peninsula (and just off the southeast Atlantic coast tonight). The ongoing convection between Fort Meyers and Sarasota could persist through the afternoon while spreading east-northeastward along the warm front. There will be sufficient vertical shear/hodograph length for a weakly rotating storm within the cluster, but poor midlevel lapse rates and modest low-level flow/shear suggest that severe storms are unlikely. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... No appreciable changes have been made to the prior forecast. ..Gleason.. 01/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024/ ...Central FL this afternoon... Cyclonic flow aloft will persist over the CONUS from the Rockies eastward, with ridging over the Pacific coast. One embedded speed maxima will progress east-northeastward from the Mid-South to the Mid-Atlantic, in advance of an upstream wave moving from the central High Plains/Rockies to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys. The majority of the CONUS will be relatively cold/dry, with the only buoyant warm sector confined to the FL peninsula (and just off the southeast Atlantic coast tonight). The ongoing convection between Fort Meyers and Sarasota could persist through the afternoon while spreading east-northeastward along the warm front. There will be sufficient vertical shear/hodograph length for a weakly rotating storm within the cluster, but poor midlevel lapse rates and modest low-level flow/shear suggest that severe storms are unlikely. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... No appreciable changes have been made to the prior forecast. ..Gleason.. 01/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024/ ...Central FL this afternoon... Cyclonic flow aloft will persist over the CONUS from the Rockies eastward, with ridging over the Pacific coast. One embedded speed maxima will progress east-northeastward from the Mid-South to the Mid-Atlantic, in advance of an upstream wave moving from the central High Plains/Rockies to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys. The majority of the CONUS will be relatively cold/dry, with the only buoyant warm sector confined to the FL peninsula (and just off the southeast Atlantic coast tonight). The ongoing convection between Fort Meyers and Sarasota could persist through the afternoon while spreading east-northeastward along the warm front. There will be sufficient vertical shear/hodograph length for a weakly rotating storm within the cluster, but poor midlevel lapse rates and modest low-level flow/shear suggest that severe storms are unlikely. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... No appreciable changes have been made to the prior forecast. ..Gleason.. 01/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024/ ...Central FL this afternoon... Cyclonic flow aloft will persist over the CONUS from the Rockies eastward, with ridging over the Pacific coast. One embedded speed maxima will progress east-northeastward from the Mid-South to the Mid-Atlantic, in advance of an upstream wave moving from the central High Plains/Rockies to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys. The majority of the CONUS will be relatively cold/dry, with the only buoyant warm sector confined to the FL peninsula (and just off the southeast Atlantic coast tonight). The ongoing convection between Fort Meyers and Sarasota could persist through the afternoon while spreading east-northeastward along the warm front. There will be sufficient vertical shear/hodograph length for a weakly rotating storm within the cluster, but poor midlevel lapse rates and modest low-level flow/shear suggest that severe storms are unlikely. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... No appreciable changes have been made to the prior forecast. ..Gleason.. 01/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024/ ...Central FL this afternoon... Cyclonic flow aloft will persist over the CONUS from the Rockies eastward, with ridging over the Pacific coast. One embedded speed maxima will progress east-northeastward from the Mid-South to the Mid-Atlantic, in advance of an upstream wave moving from the central High Plains/Rockies to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys. The majority of the CONUS will be relatively cold/dry, with the only buoyant warm sector confined to the FL peninsula (and just off the southeast Atlantic coast tonight). The ongoing convection between Fort Meyers and Sarasota could persist through the afternoon while spreading east-northeastward along the warm front. There will be sufficient vertical shear/hodograph length for a weakly rotating storm within the cluster, but poor midlevel lapse rates and modest low-level flow/shear suggest that severe storms are unlikely. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... No appreciable changes have been made to the prior forecast. ..Gleason.. 01/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024/ ...Central FL this afternoon... Cyclonic flow aloft will persist over the CONUS from the Rockies eastward, with ridging over the Pacific coast. One embedded speed maxima will progress east-northeastward from the Mid-South to the Mid-Atlantic, in advance of an upstream wave moving from the central High Plains/Rockies to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys. The majority of the CONUS will be relatively cold/dry, with the only buoyant warm sector confined to the FL peninsula (and just off the southeast Atlantic coast tonight). The ongoing convection between Fort Meyers and Sarasota could persist through the afternoon while spreading east-northeastward along the warm front. There will be sufficient vertical shear/hodograph length for a weakly rotating storm within the cluster, but poor midlevel lapse rates and modest low-level flow/shear suggest that severe storms are unlikely. Read more

MD 0069 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF MIDDLE AND EASTERN TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0069 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Areas affected...parts of middle and eastern Tennessee Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 151750Z - 152045Z SUMMARY...An area of heavier snow rates, occasionally approaching 1 inch per hour, may be maintained east-northeastward across portions of middle and eastern Tennessee through 2-4 PM CST, before gradually diminishing through early evening. DISCUSSION...A mid-level speed maximum propagating across northern Mississippi is forecast to reach the Cumberland Plateau by early evening. This still appears associated with an area of enhanced mid/upper forcing for ascent, which might be maintained through the 20-22Z time frame while overspreading portions of middle through eastern Tennessee. Thereafter, frontogenetic forcing is forecast to generally weaken across the Tennessee Valley through southern Appalachians vicinity, yielding diminishing precipitation rates. Until then, it appears that the area of enhanced lift will include upward vertical motion maximized within the favorably cold mid-level layer (centered around or above 600 mb) for large dendritic ice crystal growth. It appears this may remain strong enough to support continuing potential for occasional heavy snow rates up to around 1 inch per hour, where lower/mid tropospheric profiles are maintained at or below freezing (roughly north of the 0 C isotherm at 859 mb). ..Kerr.. 01/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...HUN... LAT...LON 34978743 35118584 35718402 36408364 36298463 36048579 35848708 34978743 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Similar to D1/Monday, cold surface temperatures accompanying an expansive arctic air mass will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS on D2/Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Similar to D1/Monday, cold surface temperatures accompanying an expansive arctic air mass will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS on D2/Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Similar to D1/Monday, cold surface temperatures accompanying an expansive arctic air mass will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS on D2/Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Similar to D1/Monday, cold surface temperatures accompanying an expansive arctic air mass will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS on D2/Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Similar to D1/Monday, cold surface temperatures accompanying an expansive arctic air mass will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS on D2/Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Similar to D1/Monday, cold surface temperatures accompanying an expansive arctic air mass will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS on D2/Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Similar to D1/Monday, cold surface temperatures accompanying an expansive arctic air mass will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS on D2/Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Similar to D1/Monday, cold surface temperatures accompanying an expansive arctic air mass will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS on D2/Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more