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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST AND WEST TEXAS... A minor expansion was made to the critical area into portions West Texas. Additional refinements to the elevated area were made across northeast New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle where RH values are trending higher and precipitation is forecast this afternoon/evening, based on the latest high-resolution guidance. Otherwise the balance of the previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 04/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A very strong mid-level jet will overspread the southern Plains today. Given the well-mixed airmass in the region, very strong winds (30+ mph sustained) are expected. The airmass is not expected to be overly dry and in fact, some precipitation is expected across portions of the Texas Panhandle. However, relative humidity of 20 to 25 percent is likely in the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin. This will result in at least some threat for large fires in the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST AND WEST TEXAS... A minor expansion was made to the critical area into portions West Texas. Additional refinements to the elevated area were made across northeast New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle where RH values are trending higher and precipitation is forecast this afternoon/evening, based on the latest high-resolution guidance. Otherwise the balance of the previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 04/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A very strong mid-level jet will overspread the southern Plains today. Given the well-mixed airmass in the region, very strong winds (30+ mph sustained) are expected. The airmass is not expected to be overly dry and in fact, some precipitation is expected across portions of the Texas Panhandle. However, relative humidity of 20 to 25 percent is likely in the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin. This will result in at least some threat for large fires in the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST AND WEST TEXAS... A minor expansion was made to the critical area into portions West Texas. Additional refinements to the elevated area were made across northeast New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle where RH values are trending higher and precipitation is forecast this afternoon/evening, based on the latest high-resolution guidance. Otherwise the balance of the previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 04/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A very strong mid-level jet will overspread the southern Plains today. Given the well-mixed airmass in the region, very strong winds (30+ mph sustained) are expected. The airmass is not expected to be overly dry and in fact, some precipitation is expected across portions of the Texas Panhandle. However, relative humidity of 20 to 25 percent is likely in the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin. This will result in at least some threat for large fires in the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST AND WEST TEXAS... A minor expansion was made to the critical area into portions West Texas. Additional refinements to the elevated area were made across northeast New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle where RH values are trending higher and precipitation is forecast this afternoon/evening, based on the latest high-resolution guidance. Otherwise the balance of the previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 04/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A very strong mid-level jet will overspread the southern Plains today. Given the well-mixed airmass in the region, very strong winds (30+ mph sustained) are expected. The airmass is not expected to be overly dry and in fact, some precipitation is expected across portions of the Texas Panhandle. However, relative humidity of 20 to 25 percent is likely in the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin. This will result in at least some threat for large fires in the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST AND WEST TEXAS... A minor expansion was made to the critical area into portions West Texas. Additional refinements to the elevated area were made across northeast New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle where RH values are trending higher and precipitation is forecast this afternoon/evening, based on the latest high-resolution guidance. Otherwise the balance of the previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 04/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A very strong mid-level jet will overspread the southern Plains today. Given the well-mixed airmass in the region, very strong winds (30+ mph sustained) are expected. The airmass is not expected to be overly dry and in fact, some precipitation is expected across portions of the Texas Panhandle. However, relative humidity of 20 to 25 percent is likely in the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin. This will result in at least some threat for large fires in the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST AND WEST TEXAS... A minor expansion was made to the critical area into portions West Texas. Additional refinements to the elevated area were made across northeast New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle where RH values are trending higher and precipitation is forecast this afternoon/evening, based on the latest high-resolution guidance. Otherwise the balance of the previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 04/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A very strong mid-level jet will overspread the southern Plains today. Given the well-mixed airmass in the region, very strong winds (30+ mph sustained) are expected. The airmass is not expected to be overly dry and in fact, some precipitation is expected across portions of the Texas Panhandle. However, relative humidity of 20 to 25 percent is likely in the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin. This will result in at least some threat for large fires in the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST AND WEST TEXAS... A minor expansion was made to the critical area into portions West Texas. Additional refinements to the elevated area were made across northeast New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle where RH values are trending higher and precipitation is forecast this afternoon/evening, based on the latest high-resolution guidance. Otherwise the balance of the previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 04/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A very strong mid-level jet will overspread the southern Plains today. Given the well-mixed airmass in the region, very strong winds (30+ mph sustained) are expected. The airmass is not expected to be overly dry and in fact, some precipitation is expected across portions of the Texas Panhandle. However, relative humidity of 20 to 25 percent is likely in the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin. This will result in at least some threat for large fires in the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST AND WEST TEXAS... A minor expansion was made to the critical area into portions West Texas. Additional refinements to the elevated area were made across northeast New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle where RH values are trending higher and precipitation is forecast this afternoon/evening, based on the latest high-resolution guidance. Otherwise the balance of the previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 04/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A very strong mid-level jet will overspread the southern Plains today. Given the well-mixed airmass in the region, very strong winds (30+ mph sustained) are expected. The airmass is not expected to be overly dry and in fact, some precipitation is expected across portions of the Texas Panhandle. However, relative humidity of 20 to 25 percent is likely in the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin. This will result in at least some threat for large fires in the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST AND WEST TEXAS... A minor expansion was made to the critical area into portions West Texas. Additional refinements to the elevated area were made across northeast New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle where RH values are trending higher and precipitation is forecast this afternoon/evening, based on the latest high-resolution guidance. Otherwise the balance of the previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 04/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A very strong mid-level jet will overspread the southern Plains today. Given the well-mixed airmass in the region, very strong winds (30+ mph sustained) are expected. The airmass is not expected to be overly dry and in fact, some precipitation is expected across portions of the Texas Panhandle. However, relative humidity of 20 to 25 percent is likely in the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin. This will result in at least some threat for large fires in the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST AND WEST TEXAS... A minor expansion was made to the critical area into portions West Texas. Additional refinements to the elevated area were made across northeast New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle where RH values are trending higher and precipitation is forecast this afternoon/evening, based on the latest high-resolution guidance. Otherwise the balance of the previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 04/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A very strong mid-level jet will overspread the southern Plains today. Given the well-mixed airmass in the region, very strong winds (30+ mph sustained) are expected. The airmass is not expected to be overly dry and in fact, some precipitation is expected across portions of the Texas Panhandle. However, relative humidity of 20 to 25 percent is likely in the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin. This will result in at least some threat for large fires in the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST AND WEST TEXAS... A minor expansion was made to the critical area into portions West Texas. Additional refinements to the elevated area were made across northeast New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle where RH values are trending higher and precipitation is forecast this afternoon/evening, based on the latest high-resolution guidance. Otherwise the balance of the previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 04/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A very strong mid-level jet will overspread the southern Plains today. Given the well-mixed airmass in the region, very strong winds (30+ mph sustained) are expected. The airmass is not expected to be overly dry and in fact, some precipitation is expected across portions of the Texas Panhandle. However, relative humidity of 20 to 25 percent is likely in the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin. This will result in at least some threat for large fires in the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST AND WEST TEXAS... A minor expansion was made to the critical area into portions West Texas. Additional refinements to the elevated area were made across northeast New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle where RH values are trending higher and precipitation is forecast this afternoon/evening, based on the latest high-resolution guidance. Otherwise the balance of the previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 04/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A very strong mid-level jet will overspread the southern Plains today. Given the well-mixed airmass in the region, very strong winds (30+ mph sustained) are expected. The airmass is not expected to be overly dry and in fact, some precipitation is expected across portions of the Texas Panhandle. However, relative humidity of 20 to 25 percent is likely in the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin. This will result in at least some threat for large fires in the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Apr 1 16:48:01 UTC 2024.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME NORTH TX INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN OK... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this afternoon into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...Synopsis... Embedded speed maxima (90-100+ kt 500 mb) from southern NM/far west TX to northwest Mexico will eject northeastward to OK this evening and MO overnight. An associated lee cyclone will deepen this afternoon across the TX South Plains and then progress into northwest OK this evening and the mid MS Valley by the end of the period. A broad/moist warm sector is in place from the southern Plains to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, beneath a warm elevated mixed layer with 8-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. The cap will weaken through the afternoon from the west, with thunderstorm initiation becoming likely by mid afternoon along a surface front from KS into MO/IL, and mid-late afternoon along the dryline from western/central OK into northwest TX. ...KS/MO/IL/IN through tonight... Scattered thunderstorm development is likely starting mid afternoon along the baroclinic zone from KS into MO, and storms will subsequently spread eastward along the warm front from MO into IL/IN. The environment will favor supercells capable of producing very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and a few tornadoes, with an isolated strong tornado possible. Storm mode will become messier into the overnight hours with upscale growth into clusters/line segments, with an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph), and a continued threat for tornadoes (possibly up to EF2) with embedded/QLCS circulations. ...OK/TX this afternoon into early tonight... The elevated mixed layer and associated cap, along with widespread clouds, will tend to delay surface-based storm development until mid-late afternoon, when forcing for ascent increases from the southwest with the approach of the mid-upper jet streak. By about 21z, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline from northwest TX into western OK, and storms will spread quickly northeastward into central/eastern OK through this evening/early tonight. Steep midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, in an environment with very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs favorable for multiple supercells with very large hail (3 inches in diameter or greater). The magnitude of the tornado threat is a bit less certain, given a weakness in the low-level shear until a more consolidated low-level jet response begins by late evening, when storm mergers and upscale growth become more probable into eastern OK/northwest AR/southwest MO early tonight. However, given the very strong flow and seasonably rich low-level moisture, there will be the potential for a couple of strong (roughly EF2) tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME NORTH TX INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN OK... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this afternoon into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...Synopsis... Embedded speed maxima (90-100+ kt 500 mb) from southern NM/far west TX to northwest Mexico will eject northeastward to OK this evening and MO overnight. An associated lee cyclone will deepen this afternoon across the TX South Plains and then progress into northwest OK this evening and the mid MS Valley by the end of the period. A broad/moist warm sector is in place from the southern Plains to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, beneath a warm elevated mixed layer with 8-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. The cap will weaken through the afternoon from the west, with thunderstorm initiation becoming likely by mid afternoon along a surface front from KS into MO/IL, and mid-late afternoon along the dryline from western/central OK into northwest TX. ...KS/MO/IL/IN through tonight... Scattered thunderstorm development is likely starting mid afternoon along the baroclinic zone from KS into MO, and storms will subsequently spread eastward along the warm front from MO into IL/IN. The environment will favor supercells capable of producing very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and a few tornadoes, with an isolated strong tornado possible. Storm mode will become messier into the overnight hours with upscale growth into clusters/line segments, with an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph), and a continued threat for tornadoes (possibly up to EF2) with embedded/QLCS circulations. ...OK/TX this afternoon into early tonight... The elevated mixed layer and associated cap, along with widespread clouds, will tend to delay surface-based storm development until mid-late afternoon, when forcing for ascent increases from the southwest with the approach of the mid-upper jet streak. By about 21z, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline from northwest TX into western OK, and storms will spread quickly northeastward into central/eastern OK through this evening/early tonight. Steep midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, in an environment with very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs favorable for multiple supercells with very large hail (3 inches in diameter or greater). The magnitude of the tornado threat is a bit less certain, given a weakness in the low-level shear until a more consolidated low-level jet response begins by late evening, when storm mergers and upscale growth become more probable into eastern OK/northwest AR/southwest MO early tonight. However, given the very strong flow and seasonably rich low-level moisture, there will be the potential for a couple of strong (roughly EF2) tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME NORTH TX INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN OK... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this afternoon into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...Synopsis... Embedded speed maxima (90-100+ kt 500 mb) from southern NM/far west TX to northwest Mexico will eject northeastward to OK this evening and MO overnight. An associated lee cyclone will deepen this afternoon across the TX South Plains and then progress into northwest OK this evening and the mid MS Valley by the end of the period. A broad/moist warm sector is in place from the southern Plains to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, beneath a warm elevated mixed layer with 8-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. The cap will weaken through the afternoon from the west, with thunderstorm initiation becoming likely by mid afternoon along a surface front from KS into MO/IL, and mid-late afternoon along the dryline from western/central OK into northwest TX. ...KS/MO/IL/IN through tonight... Scattered thunderstorm development is likely starting mid afternoon along the baroclinic zone from KS into MO, and storms will subsequently spread eastward along the warm front from MO into IL/IN. The environment will favor supercells capable of producing very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and a few tornadoes, with an isolated strong tornado possible. Storm mode will become messier into the overnight hours with upscale growth into clusters/line segments, with an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph), and a continued threat for tornadoes (possibly up to EF2) with embedded/QLCS circulations. ...OK/TX this afternoon into early tonight... The elevated mixed layer and associated cap, along with widespread clouds, will tend to delay surface-based storm development until mid-late afternoon, when forcing for ascent increases from the southwest with the approach of the mid-upper jet streak. By about 21z, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline from northwest TX into western OK, and storms will spread quickly northeastward into central/eastern OK through this evening/early tonight. Steep midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, in an environment with very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs favorable for multiple supercells with very large hail (3 inches in diameter or greater). The magnitude of the tornado threat is a bit less certain, given a weakness in the low-level shear until a more consolidated low-level jet response begins by late evening, when storm mergers and upscale growth become more probable into eastern OK/northwest AR/southwest MO early tonight. However, given the very strong flow and seasonably rich low-level moisture, there will be the potential for a couple of strong (roughly EF2) tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME NORTH TX INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN OK... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this afternoon into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...Synopsis... Embedded speed maxima (90-100+ kt 500 mb) from southern NM/far west TX to northwest Mexico will eject northeastward to OK this evening and MO overnight. An associated lee cyclone will deepen this afternoon across the TX South Plains and then progress into northwest OK this evening and the mid MS Valley by the end of the period. A broad/moist warm sector is in place from the southern Plains to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, beneath a warm elevated mixed layer with 8-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. The cap will weaken through the afternoon from the west, with thunderstorm initiation becoming likely by mid afternoon along a surface front from KS into MO/IL, and mid-late afternoon along the dryline from western/central OK into northwest TX. ...KS/MO/IL/IN through tonight... Scattered thunderstorm development is likely starting mid afternoon along the baroclinic zone from KS into MO, and storms will subsequently spread eastward along the warm front from MO into IL/IN. The environment will favor supercells capable of producing very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and a few tornadoes, with an isolated strong tornado possible. Storm mode will become messier into the overnight hours with upscale growth into clusters/line segments, with an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph), and a continued threat for tornadoes (possibly up to EF2) with embedded/QLCS circulations. ...OK/TX this afternoon into early tonight... The elevated mixed layer and associated cap, along with widespread clouds, will tend to delay surface-based storm development until mid-late afternoon, when forcing for ascent increases from the southwest with the approach of the mid-upper jet streak. By about 21z, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline from northwest TX into western OK, and storms will spread quickly northeastward into central/eastern OK through this evening/early tonight. Steep midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, in an environment with very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs favorable for multiple supercells with very large hail (3 inches in diameter or greater). The magnitude of the tornado threat is a bit less certain, given a weakness in the low-level shear until a more consolidated low-level jet response begins by late evening, when storm mergers and upscale growth become more probable into eastern OK/northwest AR/southwest MO early tonight. However, given the very strong flow and seasonably rich low-level moisture, there will be the potential for a couple of strong (roughly EF2) tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME NORTH TX INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN OK... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this afternoon into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...Synopsis... Embedded speed maxima (90-100+ kt 500 mb) from southern NM/far west TX to northwest Mexico will eject northeastward to OK this evening and MO overnight. An associated lee cyclone will deepen this afternoon across the TX South Plains and then progress into northwest OK this evening and the mid MS Valley by the end of the period. A broad/moist warm sector is in place from the southern Plains to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, beneath a warm elevated mixed layer with 8-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. The cap will weaken through the afternoon from the west, with thunderstorm initiation becoming likely by mid afternoon along a surface front from KS into MO/IL, and mid-late afternoon along the dryline from western/central OK into northwest TX. ...KS/MO/IL/IN through tonight... Scattered thunderstorm development is likely starting mid afternoon along the baroclinic zone from KS into MO, and storms will subsequently spread eastward along the warm front from MO into IL/IN. The environment will favor supercells capable of producing very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and a few tornadoes, with an isolated strong tornado possible. Storm mode will become messier into the overnight hours with upscale growth into clusters/line segments, with an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph), and a continued threat for tornadoes (possibly up to EF2) with embedded/QLCS circulations. ...OK/TX this afternoon into early tonight... The elevated mixed layer and associated cap, along with widespread clouds, will tend to delay surface-based storm development until mid-late afternoon, when forcing for ascent increases from the southwest with the approach of the mid-upper jet streak. By about 21z, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline from northwest TX into western OK, and storms will spread quickly northeastward into central/eastern OK through this evening/early tonight. Steep midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, in an environment with very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs favorable for multiple supercells with very large hail (3 inches in diameter or greater). The magnitude of the tornado threat is a bit less certain, given a weakness in the low-level shear until a more consolidated low-level jet response begins by late evening, when storm mergers and upscale growth become more probable into eastern OK/northwest AR/southwest MO early tonight. However, given the very strong flow and seasonably rich low-level moisture, there will be the potential for a couple of strong (roughly EF2) tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME NORTH TX INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN OK... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this afternoon into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...Synopsis... Embedded speed maxima (90-100+ kt 500 mb) from southern NM/far west TX to northwest Mexico will eject northeastward to OK this evening and MO overnight. An associated lee cyclone will deepen this afternoon across the TX South Plains and then progress into northwest OK this evening and the mid MS Valley by the end of the period. A broad/moist warm sector is in place from the southern Plains to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, beneath a warm elevated mixed layer with 8-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. The cap will weaken through the afternoon from the west, with thunderstorm initiation becoming likely by mid afternoon along a surface front from KS into MO/IL, and mid-late afternoon along the dryline from western/central OK into northwest TX. ...KS/MO/IL/IN through tonight... Scattered thunderstorm development is likely starting mid afternoon along the baroclinic zone from KS into MO, and storms will subsequently spread eastward along the warm front from MO into IL/IN. The environment will favor supercells capable of producing very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and a few tornadoes, with an isolated strong tornado possible. Storm mode will become messier into the overnight hours with upscale growth into clusters/line segments, with an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph), and a continued threat for tornadoes (possibly up to EF2) with embedded/QLCS circulations. ...OK/TX this afternoon into early tonight... The elevated mixed layer and associated cap, along with widespread clouds, will tend to delay surface-based storm development until mid-late afternoon, when forcing for ascent increases from the southwest with the approach of the mid-upper jet streak. By about 21z, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline from northwest TX into western OK, and storms will spread quickly northeastward into central/eastern OK through this evening/early tonight. Steep midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, in an environment with very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs favorable for multiple supercells with very large hail (3 inches in diameter or greater). The magnitude of the tornado threat is a bit less certain, given a weakness in the low-level shear until a more consolidated low-level jet response begins by late evening, when storm mergers and upscale growth become more probable into eastern OK/northwest AR/southwest MO early tonight. However, given the very strong flow and seasonably rich low-level moisture, there will be the potential for a couple of strong (roughly EF2) tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME NORTH TX INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN OK... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this afternoon into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...Synopsis... Embedded speed maxima (90-100+ kt 500 mb) from southern NM/far west TX to northwest Mexico will eject northeastward to OK this evening and MO overnight. An associated lee cyclone will deepen this afternoon across the TX South Plains and then progress into northwest OK this evening and the mid MS Valley by the end of the period. A broad/moist warm sector is in place from the southern Plains to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, beneath a warm elevated mixed layer with 8-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. The cap will weaken through the afternoon from the west, with thunderstorm initiation becoming likely by mid afternoon along a surface front from KS into MO/IL, and mid-late afternoon along the dryline from western/central OK into northwest TX. ...KS/MO/IL/IN through tonight... Scattered thunderstorm development is likely starting mid afternoon along the baroclinic zone from KS into MO, and storms will subsequently spread eastward along the warm front from MO into IL/IN. The environment will favor supercells capable of producing very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and a few tornadoes, with an isolated strong tornado possible. Storm mode will become messier into the overnight hours with upscale growth into clusters/line segments, with an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph), and a continued threat for tornadoes (possibly up to EF2) with embedded/QLCS circulations. ...OK/TX this afternoon into early tonight... The elevated mixed layer and associated cap, along with widespread clouds, will tend to delay surface-based storm development until mid-late afternoon, when forcing for ascent increases from the southwest with the approach of the mid-upper jet streak. By about 21z, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline from northwest TX into western OK, and storms will spread quickly northeastward into central/eastern OK through this evening/early tonight. Steep midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, in an environment with very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs favorable for multiple supercells with very large hail (3 inches in diameter or greater). The magnitude of the tornado threat is a bit less certain, given a weakness in the low-level shear until a more consolidated low-level jet response begins by late evening, when storm mergers and upscale growth become more probable into eastern OK/northwest AR/southwest MO early tonight. However, given the very strong flow and seasonably rich low-level moisture, there will be the potential for a couple of strong (roughly EF2) tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/01/2024 Read more