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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two and isolated damaging winds are possible through this afternoon across central Florida. ...Central FL this afternoon... A broad midlevel trough from the Ozarks to the OH Valley will progress eastward to the Atlantic coast by late tonight, as an associated surface cold front moves southeastward across central/south FL. A subtle/embedded speed max over the northern Gulf of Mexico will move over north FL this afternoon, and this will help focus thunderstorm development through the day across central FL, both along and south of the cold front. Midlevel lapse rates will not be steep, but some cloud breaks north of ongoing convection and boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s will contribute to MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, and somewhat larger buoyancy along the southern fringes of the ongoing convection in central FL. The storms west of Tampa have shown some increase in intensity along the front, and additional storm development is possible along the southern periphery of the ongoing storms across central FL. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for some organized/rotating storms, while low-level hodograph curvature/SRH will remain relatively larger through early afternoon and begin to decrease by mid-late afternoon as low-level flow veers. The net result will be the potential for line segments or supercells capable of producing isolated wind damage. A brief tornado or two will also be possible, focused a little more toward the Atlantic coast where low-level shear will be modestly stronger through more of the afternoon. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two and isolated damaging winds are possible through this afternoon across central Florida. ...Central FL this afternoon... A broad midlevel trough from the Ozarks to the OH Valley will progress eastward to the Atlantic coast by late tonight, as an associated surface cold front moves southeastward across central/south FL. A subtle/embedded speed max over the northern Gulf of Mexico will move over north FL this afternoon, and this will help focus thunderstorm development through the day across central FL, both along and south of the cold front. Midlevel lapse rates will not be steep, but some cloud breaks north of ongoing convection and boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s will contribute to MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, and somewhat larger buoyancy along the southern fringes of the ongoing convection in central FL. The storms west of Tampa have shown some increase in intensity along the front, and additional storm development is possible along the southern periphery of the ongoing storms across central FL. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for some organized/rotating storms, while low-level hodograph curvature/SRH will remain relatively larger through early afternoon and begin to decrease by mid-late afternoon as low-level flow veers. The net result will be the potential for line segments or supercells capable of producing isolated wind damage. A brief tornado or two will also be possible, focused a little more toward the Atlantic coast where low-level shear will be modestly stronger through more of the afternoon. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two and isolated damaging winds are possible through this afternoon across central Florida. ...Central FL this afternoon... A broad midlevel trough from the Ozarks to the OH Valley will progress eastward to the Atlantic coast by late tonight, as an associated surface cold front moves southeastward across central/south FL. A subtle/embedded speed max over the northern Gulf of Mexico will move over north FL this afternoon, and this will help focus thunderstorm development through the day across central FL, both along and south of the cold front. Midlevel lapse rates will not be steep, but some cloud breaks north of ongoing convection and boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s will contribute to MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, and somewhat larger buoyancy along the southern fringes of the ongoing convection in central FL. The storms west of Tampa have shown some increase in intensity along the front, and additional storm development is possible along the southern periphery of the ongoing storms across central FL. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for some organized/rotating storms, while low-level hodograph curvature/SRH will remain relatively larger through early afternoon and begin to decrease by mid-late afternoon as low-level flow veers. The net result will be the potential for line segments or supercells capable of producing isolated wind damage. A brief tornado or two will also be possible, focused a little more toward the Atlantic coast where low-level shear will be modestly stronger through more of the afternoon. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two and isolated damaging winds are possible through this afternoon across central Florida. ...Central FL this afternoon... A broad midlevel trough from the Ozarks to the OH Valley will progress eastward to the Atlantic coast by late tonight, as an associated surface cold front moves southeastward across central/south FL. A subtle/embedded speed max over the northern Gulf of Mexico will move over north FL this afternoon, and this will help focus thunderstorm development through the day across central FL, both along and south of the cold front. Midlevel lapse rates will not be steep, but some cloud breaks north of ongoing convection and boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s will contribute to MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, and somewhat larger buoyancy along the southern fringes of the ongoing convection in central FL. The storms west of Tampa have shown some increase in intensity along the front, and additional storm development is possible along the southern periphery of the ongoing storms across central FL. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for some organized/rotating storms, while low-level hodograph curvature/SRH will remain relatively larger through early afternoon and begin to decrease by mid-late afternoon as low-level flow veers. The net result will be the potential for line segments or supercells capable of producing isolated wind damage. A brief tornado or two will also be possible, focused a little more toward the Atlantic coast where low-level shear will be modestly stronger through more of the afternoon. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two and isolated damaging winds are possible through this afternoon across central Florida. ...Central FL this afternoon... A broad midlevel trough from the Ozarks to the OH Valley will progress eastward to the Atlantic coast by late tonight, as an associated surface cold front moves southeastward across central/south FL. A subtle/embedded speed max over the northern Gulf of Mexico will move over north FL this afternoon, and this will help focus thunderstorm development through the day across central FL, both along and south of the cold front. Midlevel lapse rates will not be steep, but some cloud breaks north of ongoing convection and boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s will contribute to MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, and somewhat larger buoyancy along the southern fringes of the ongoing convection in central FL. The storms west of Tampa have shown some increase in intensity along the front, and additional storm development is possible along the southern periphery of the ongoing storms across central FL. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for some organized/rotating storms, while low-level hodograph curvature/SRH will remain relatively larger through early afternoon and begin to decrease by mid-late afternoon as low-level flow veers. The net result will be the potential for line segments or supercells capable of producing isolated wind damage. A brief tornado or two will also be possible, focused a little more toward the Atlantic coast where low-level shear will be modestly stronger through more of the afternoon. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two and isolated damaging winds are possible through this afternoon across central Florida. ...Central FL this afternoon... A broad midlevel trough from the Ozarks to the OH Valley will progress eastward to the Atlantic coast by late tonight, as an associated surface cold front moves southeastward across central/south FL. A subtle/embedded speed max over the northern Gulf of Mexico will move over north FL this afternoon, and this will help focus thunderstorm development through the day across central FL, both along and south of the cold front. Midlevel lapse rates will not be steep, but some cloud breaks north of ongoing convection and boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s will contribute to MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, and somewhat larger buoyancy along the southern fringes of the ongoing convection in central FL. The storms west of Tampa have shown some increase in intensity along the front, and additional storm development is possible along the southern periphery of the ongoing storms across central FL. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for some organized/rotating storms, while low-level hodograph curvature/SRH will remain relatively larger through early afternoon and begin to decrease by mid-late afternoon as low-level flow veers. The net result will be the potential for line segments or supercells capable of producing isolated wind damage. A brief tornado or two will also be possible, focused a little more toward the Atlantic coast where low-level shear will be modestly stronger through more of the afternoon. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two and isolated damaging winds are possible through this afternoon across central Florida. ...Central FL this afternoon... A broad midlevel trough from the Ozarks to the OH Valley will progress eastward to the Atlantic coast by late tonight, as an associated surface cold front moves southeastward across central/south FL. A subtle/embedded speed max over the northern Gulf of Mexico will move over north FL this afternoon, and this will help focus thunderstorm development through the day across central FL, both along and south of the cold front. Midlevel lapse rates will not be steep, but some cloud breaks north of ongoing convection and boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s will contribute to MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, and somewhat larger buoyancy along the southern fringes of the ongoing convection in central FL. The storms west of Tampa have shown some increase in intensity along the front, and additional storm development is possible along the southern periphery of the ongoing storms across central FL. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for some organized/rotating storms, while low-level hodograph curvature/SRH will remain relatively larger through early afternoon and begin to decrease by mid-late afternoon as low-level flow veers. The net result will be the potential for line segments or supercells capable of producing isolated wind damage. A brief tornado or two will also be possible, focused a little more toward the Atlantic coast where low-level shear will be modestly stronger through more of the afternoon. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two and isolated damaging winds are possible through this afternoon across central Florida. ...Central FL this afternoon... A broad midlevel trough from the Ozarks to the OH Valley will progress eastward to the Atlantic coast by late tonight, as an associated surface cold front moves southeastward across central/south FL. A subtle/embedded speed max over the northern Gulf of Mexico will move over north FL this afternoon, and this will help focus thunderstorm development through the day across central FL, both along and south of the cold front. Midlevel lapse rates will not be steep, but some cloud breaks north of ongoing convection and boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s will contribute to MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, and somewhat larger buoyancy along the southern fringes of the ongoing convection in central FL. The storms west of Tampa have shown some increase in intensity along the front, and additional storm development is possible along the southern periphery of the ongoing storms across central FL. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for some organized/rotating storms, while low-level hodograph curvature/SRH will remain relatively larger through early afternoon and begin to decrease by mid-late afternoon as low-level flow veers. The net result will be the potential for line segments or supercells capable of producing isolated wind damage. A brief tornado or two will also be possible, focused a little more toward the Atlantic coast where low-level shear will be modestly stronger through more of the afternoon. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two and isolated damaging winds are possible through this afternoon across central Florida. ...Central FL this afternoon... A broad midlevel trough from the Ozarks to the OH Valley will progress eastward to the Atlantic coast by late tonight, as an associated surface cold front moves southeastward across central/south FL. A subtle/embedded speed max over the northern Gulf of Mexico will move over north FL this afternoon, and this will help focus thunderstorm development through the day across central FL, both along and south of the cold front. Midlevel lapse rates will not be steep, but some cloud breaks north of ongoing convection and boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s will contribute to MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, and somewhat larger buoyancy along the southern fringes of the ongoing convection in central FL. The storms west of Tampa have shown some increase in intensity along the front, and additional storm development is possible along the southern periphery of the ongoing storms across central FL. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for some organized/rotating storms, while low-level hodograph curvature/SRH will remain relatively larger through early afternoon and begin to decrease by mid-late afternoon as low-level flow veers. The net result will be the potential for line segments or supercells capable of producing isolated wind damage. A brief tornado or two will also be possible, focused a little more toward the Atlantic coast where low-level shear will be modestly stronger through more of the afternoon. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/16/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0932 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough will continue eastward across the eastern half of the CONUS, while an expansive arctic air mass shifts east-southeastward from the southern Plains into the Southeast. Cold surface temperatures accompanying the arctic air mass will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0932 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough will continue eastward across the eastern half of the CONUS, while an expansive arctic air mass shifts east-southeastward from the southern Plains into the Southeast. Cold surface temperatures accompanying the arctic air mass will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0932 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough will continue eastward across the eastern half of the CONUS, while an expansive arctic air mass shifts east-southeastward from the southern Plains into the Southeast. Cold surface temperatures accompanying the arctic air mass will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0932 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough will continue eastward across the eastern half of the CONUS, while an expansive arctic air mass shifts east-southeastward from the southern Plains into the Southeast. Cold surface temperatures accompanying the arctic air mass will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0932 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough will continue eastward across the eastern half of the CONUS, while an expansive arctic air mass shifts east-southeastward from the southern Plains into the Southeast. Cold surface temperatures accompanying the arctic air mass will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0932 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough will continue eastward across the eastern half of the CONUS, while an expansive arctic air mass shifts east-southeastward from the southern Plains into the Southeast. Cold surface temperatures accompanying the arctic air mass will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0932 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough will continue eastward across the eastern half of the CONUS, while an expansive arctic air mass shifts east-southeastward from the southern Plains into the Southeast. Cold surface temperatures accompanying the arctic air mass will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0932 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough will continue eastward across the eastern half of the CONUS, while an expansive arctic air mass shifts east-southeastward from the southern Plains into the Southeast. Cold surface temperatures accompanying the arctic air mass will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0932 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough will continue eastward across the eastern half of the CONUS, while an expansive arctic air mass shifts east-southeastward from the southern Plains into the Southeast. Cold surface temperatures accompanying the arctic air mass will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0072 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN MS INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AL AND A SMALL PART OF NORTHWEST GA
Mesoscale Discussion 0072 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Areas affected...Southern MS into central/southern AL and a small part of northwest GA Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 160832Z - 161330Z SUMMARY...Winter precipitation will shift eastward early this morning. Embedded heavier showers of sleet or freezing rain will be possible. DISCUSSION...Early this morning, a broad area of post-frontal precipitation is ongoing from southern MS into central AL. This area of precipitation will continue to spread eastward this morning in conjunction with the front and a weak eastward-moving frontal wave across the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Weak but nonzero MUCAPE (as noted in the 06Z BMX sounding) will continue to support fast-moving showers with briefly moderate precip rates embedded in the broader light precipitation shield. A substantial warm nose aloft (also noted on the 06Z BMX sounding) atop a shallow subfreezing layer at the surface will continue to support freezing rain and sleet as the primary winter precipitation types. Strong low-level cold advection will continue to push the surface freezing line southeastward with time, with a transition to freezing rain expected into parts of south-central AL, southern MS, and northwest GA, where temperatures are currently above 32F. Deepening cold air beneath the warm nose will support primarily sleet across the northwest portion of the precipitation shield. Some oscillation between freezing rain and sleet is possible within the transition zone. ..Dean.. 01/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 31278928 31908844 32538767 33008710 33768617 34158535 34148498 33808495 33068514 32898522 32478535 32128557 31428669 30828792 30178932 30178962 30288978 30528998 30748983 31278928 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A couple brief tornadoes and isolated damaging winds are possible this morning into the afternoon over parts of the Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... Broadly cyclonic flow in mid/upper levels will be maintained over most of the CONUS, as a large cyclone meanders over the southern Hudson Bay/northern ON region. A basal shortwave trough was apparent in moisture-channel imagery from Lower MI across southern IL to the KS/OK border vicinity. By 00Z, this perturbation is expected to elongate further and pivot to northern NY, PA, WV, parts of KY/TN, and AR. By 12Z tomorrow, the trough should be over or just offshore of the coast from New England to northeastern NC, arching inland to the TRI area. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed two primary fronts: 1. A warm to quasistationary boundary extended from a low near Cape San Blas southeastward across central FL to a weak low near XMR, then northeastward approximately along the western part of the Gulf Stream past the NC Outer Banks. This boundary should drift northward over land through much of the day, potentially reaching north-central FL before being overtaken by the next front. 2. An Arctic cold front was drawn from the San Blas low northeastward to another low between HKY-AVL, and southwestward across the central Gulf. This front will move offshore of all the Atlantic Coast by 00Z, except central FL. By 12Z, the cold front should clear the entire FL Peninsula and Keys. ...FL Peninsula... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to move roughly eastward across the area, both from the Gulf on either side of the southern front, and from development over land along and south of that boundary. Isolated damaging to severe gusts are possible -- mainly near and south of the southern front where surface-based inflow is expected. A tornado also may occur in the same regime -- especially closer to the Atlantic Coast where more potential exists for storm-scale interaction with sea-breeze and/or favorably aligned outflow boundaries. For this outlook cycle, unconditional severe probability bins overall are kept at marginal categorical level, but appear nonuniform within that. Overall, they would appear somewhat greater to the east and lower to the west, if continuous/heatmap-style coloring were available. Activity over the central and especially eastern parts of the peninsula -- along and south of the southern then combined front -- will have access to a richly moist boundary layer with the longest time frame for diurnal destabilization of the inflow layer. Somewhat muted diabatic heating through cloud cover will slow the pace of destabilization, but still yield favorably uninhibited buoyancy. With surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F, that heating should offset weak low/middle-level lapse rates enough to yield MLCAPE generally in the 1000-1500 J/kg range. With little change in either heights or height gradient aloft, mid/ upper-level winds and deep shear should remain favorable through the day, albeit with some decrease as winds veer near the surface. Supercell and bowing/clustered modes are possible within the band(s) of convection. However, the veering will lead to gradual shrinking/ straightening of hodographs during the period of daytime destabilization (offsetting factors). This will make tornado potential conditional on more storm- to local-scale effects. Activity should weaken with southward extent this evening as the combined boundary moves into a nocturnally stabilizing airmass, with still more veering of near-surface flow. ..Edwards/Dean.. 01/16/2024 Read more