Aggregator

MD 0358 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL ALABAMA...NORTHWEST GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0358 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0553 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Areas affected...Eastern Mississippi...Central Alabama...Northwest Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 022253Z - 030200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will become more numerous through the evening, with an increasing risk of tornadoes and damaging winds. Watch issuance is expected in the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...A very warm/moist and moderately unstable and only weakly capped air mass is in place this evening across much of southern MS/AL, with dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s. Recent satellite/radar loops show isolate showers and thunderstorms beginning to develop in this region. Models have been consistent in the development of a strong southerly low-level jet by mid-evening, resulting in northward advection of the better moisture and strengthening low-level wind fields. Forecast soundings suggest rapid enlargement of hodographs after dark, with parameters becoming quite favorable for supercells capable of tornadoes and damaging winds. A tornado watch will be needed for parts of this region in the next couple of hours as more robust convective initiation begins. ..Hart/Guyer.. 04/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN... LAT...LON 32258913 33668809 34968490 33758421 32548536 31578849 32258913 Read more

MD 0354 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN WISCONSIN AND THE WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 0354 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Wisconsin and the western/central Upper Peninsula of Michigan Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 022049Z - 030145Z SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow will gradually expand in coverage over parts of WI and MI this afternoon/evening. Rates of 1-1.5 in/hour are likely within the heaviest banding along the western shores of Lake Michigan. DISCUSSION...As of 2045 UTC, regional radar and surface analysis showed a broad precipitation shield expanding north/northeastward from a deepening surface cyclone centered over far northern IL. Within this comma head structure, moderate to heavy rain has gradually transitioned to snow. While temperatures have been only marginally conducive for snow thus far, dynamic cooling and low-level cold advection should allow for a full transition to snow from west to east. Hi-res forecast guidance suggests the development of one or more mesoscale bands is likely through this evening. Likely driven by frictional convergence on the western lake shore and slantwise convection, snow rates within some of these banded structures may reach 1-1.5 in/hr. Heavy snow will continue to expand east/northeastward across eastern WI and the western UP through the afternoon and into the evening. Confidence in the highest rates will remain along the western lake shore where forcing for ascent and inland moisture advection are expected to be the strongest. However, periodic heavy snowfall with rates near 1 in/hr will remain possible across much of WI and the UP through tonight. ..Lyons.. 04/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...MKX...ARX... LAT...LON 46738542 46368505 45948515 45238635 44728699 44108741 43688788 43628803 43398842 43288870 43218897 43238926 43718968 44298987 44948978 45448958 45848928 46088894 46298818 46628682 46708622 46738542 Read more

WW 0078 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 78 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE BNA TO 40 E BWG TO 25 SW LEX TO 40 NNE LEX TO 50 E LUK. ..BENTLEY..04/03/24 ATTN...WFO...IND...LMK...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 78 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-003-009-017-021-023-045-049-053-057-067-079-097-113-135- 137-151-155-161-167-169-171-181-201-207-209-229-239-030240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN BARREN BOURBON BOYLE BRACKEN CASEY CLARK CLINTON CUMBERLAND FAYETTE GARRARD HARRISON JESSAMINE LEWIS LINCOLN MADISON MARION MASON MERCER METCALFE MONROE NICHOLAS ROBERTSON RUSSELL SCOTT WASHINGTON WOODFORD OHC001-015-073-131-141-145-030240- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN HOCKING PIKE ROSS SCIOTO Read more

WW 0078 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 78 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE BNA TO 40 E BWG TO 25 SW LEX TO 40 NNE LEX TO 50 E LUK. ..BENTLEY..04/03/24 ATTN...WFO...IND...LMK...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 78 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-003-009-017-021-023-045-049-053-057-067-079-097-113-135- 137-151-155-161-167-169-171-181-201-207-209-229-239-030240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN BARREN BOURBON BOYLE BRACKEN CASEY CLARK CLINTON CUMBERLAND FAYETTE GARRARD HARRISON JESSAMINE LEWIS LINCOLN MADISON MARION MASON MERCER METCALFE MONROE NICHOLAS ROBERTSON RUSSELL SCOTT WASHINGTON WOODFORD OHC001-015-073-131-141-145-030240- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN HOCKING PIKE ROSS SCIOTO Read more

WW 0078 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 78 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE BNA TO 40 E BWG TO 25 SW LEX TO 40 NNE LEX TO 50 E LUK. ..BENTLEY..04/03/24 ATTN...WFO...IND...LMK...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 78 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-003-009-017-021-023-045-049-053-057-067-079-097-113-135- 137-151-155-161-167-169-171-181-201-207-209-229-239-030240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN BARREN BOURBON BOYLE BRACKEN CASEY CLARK CLINTON CUMBERLAND FAYETTE GARRARD HARRISON JESSAMINE LEWIS LINCOLN MADISON MARION MASON MERCER METCALFE MONROE NICHOLAS ROBERTSON RUSSELL SCOTT WASHINGTON WOODFORD OHC001-015-073-131-141-145-030240- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN HOCKING PIKE ROSS SCIOTO Read more

WW 0078 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 78 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE BNA TO 40 E BWG TO 25 SW LEX TO 40 NNE LEX TO 50 E LUK. ..BENTLEY..04/03/24 ATTN...WFO...IND...LMK...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 78 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-003-009-017-021-023-045-049-053-057-067-079-097-113-135- 137-151-155-161-167-169-171-181-201-207-209-229-239-030240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN BARREN BOURBON BOYLE BRACKEN CASEY CLARK CLINTON CUMBERLAND FAYETTE GARRARD HARRISON JESSAMINE LEWIS LINCOLN MADISON MARION MASON MERCER METCALFE MONROE NICHOLAS ROBERTSON RUSSELL SCOTT WASHINGTON WOODFORD OHC001-015-073-131-141-145-030240- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN HOCKING PIKE ROSS SCIOTO Read more

WW 0078 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 78 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE BNA TO 40 E BWG TO 25 SW LEX TO 40 NNE LEX TO 50 E LUK. ..BENTLEY..04/03/24 ATTN...WFO...IND...LMK...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 78 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-003-009-017-021-023-045-049-053-057-067-079-097-113-135- 137-151-155-161-167-169-171-181-201-207-209-229-239-030240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN BARREN BOURBON BOYLE BRACKEN CASEY CLARK CLINTON CUMBERLAND FAYETTE GARRARD HARRISON JESSAMINE LEWIS LINCOLN MADISON MARION MASON MERCER METCALFE MONROE NICHOLAS ROBERTSON RUSSELL SCOTT WASHINGTON WOODFORD OHC001-015-073-131-141-145-030240- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN HOCKING PIKE ROSS SCIOTO Read more

WW 0078 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 78 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE BNA TO 40 E BWG TO 25 SW LEX TO 40 NNE LEX TO 50 E LUK. ..BENTLEY..04/03/24 ATTN...WFO...IND...LMK...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 78 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-003-009-017-021-023-045-049-053-057-067-079-097-113-135- 137-151-155-161-167-169-171-181-201-207-209-229-239-030240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN BARREN BOURBON BOYLE BRACKEN CASEY CLARK CLINTON CUMBERLAND FAYETTE GARRARD HARRISON JESSAMINE LEWIS LINCOLN MADISON MARION MASON MERCER METCALFE MONROE NICHOLAS ROBERTSON RUSSELL SCOTT WASHINGTON WOODFORD OHC001-015-073-131-141-145-030240- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN HOCKING PIKE ROSS SCIOTO Read more

WW 78 TORNADO IN KY OH 021945Z - 030200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 78 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 345 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Indiana Central Kentucky Southwest Ohio * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Supercells are expected to form and intensify through the afternoon from Kentucky into southeast Indiana and eventually southwest Ohio. The storm environment favors the potential for a couple of strong tornadoes (EF2+), large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter, and occasional damaging gusts of 60-75 mph. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north of Cincinnati OH to 25 miles south southwest of Bowling Green KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 75...WW 76...WW 77... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24050. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0080 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 80 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..04/03/24 ATTN...WFO...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 80 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TNC001-007-009-011-013-025-029-057-059-063-065-067-073-089-093- 105-107-115-121-123-129-139-143-145-151-153-155-163-171-173-179- 030240- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BLEDSOE BLOUNT BRADLEY CAMPBELL CLAIBORNE COCKE GRAINGER GREENE HAMBLEN HAMILTON HANCOCK HAWKINS JEFFERSON KNOX LOUDON MCMINN MARION MEIGS MONROE MORGAN POLK RHEA ROANE SCOTT SEQUATCHIE SEVIER SULLIVAN UNICOI UNION WASHINGTON VAC105-169-195-720-030240- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LEE SCOTT WISE Read more

WW 0081 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 81 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W UNI TO 10 NNW UNI TO 30 ESE CAK. ..BENTLEY..04/03/24 ATTN...WFO...RLX...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 81 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC019-043-089-127-030240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOYD CARTER GREENUP LAWRENCE OHC009-013-019-029-053-059-067-079-081-087-105-111-115-121-163- 167-030240- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATHENS BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA GALLIA GUERNSEY HARRISON JACKSON JEFFERSON LAWRENCE MEIGS MONROE MORGAN NOBLE VINTON WASHINGTON PAC003-007-059-125-030240- Read more

WW 0082 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 82 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..04/03/24 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...HUN...FFC...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 82 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-007-009-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-037-043-047-049- 051-055-057-063-065-071-073-075-085-091-093-095-099-101-105-107- 111-115-117-119-121-123-125-127-129-131-133-030240- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BIBB BLOUNT CALHOUN CHAMBERS CHEROKEE CHILTON CHOCTAW CLARKE CLAY CLEBURNE COOSA CULLMAN DALLAS DEKALB ELMORE ETOWAH FAYETTE GREENE HALE JACKSON JEFFERSON LAMAR LOWNDES MARENGO MARION MARSHALL MONROE MONTGOMERY PERRY PICKENS RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR SHELBY SUMTER TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA WALKER WASHINGTON WILCOX WINSTON GAC015-045-047-055-083-097-115-129-143-149-213-223-233-285-295- 313-030240- Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0816 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SMALL PART OF FAR EASTERN OH...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF TN VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts and tornadoes remain possible from the Ohio Valley to the Southeast tonight, particularly over a small part of far eastern Ohio and across portions of Tennessee Valley and Southeast States. ...01Z Update... Multiple bands of strong to severe thunderstorms continue ahead of an expansive cold front stretching from the IN/OH border southwestward through central KY, western TN, northwest MS, and central LA. Strong wind profiles will continue to support storm organization and the potential for damaging wind gusts and/or tornadoes with any discrete storms or embedded within any of the numerous line segments along and/or ahead of the front. ...Middle/Upper OH Valley... The airmass has begun to cool and stabilize ahead of the cold front moving across the region, as evidenced by the 00Z ILN and PIT soundings. Even so, strong ascent is spreading across the region and thunderstorms are expected to persist along and ahead of the front this evening. Many of the storms in this region have trended towards a more cell-in-line/embedded supercell structure as the front approaches. This trend will likely continue throughout the evening and tonight. Wind fields remain very strong, as evidenced by the recent RLX VAD profile which sampled 0-1 km bulk shear of 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt. These kinematics will likely still support a threat for damaging gusts and embedded tornadoes throughout the evening and tonight. ...TN Valley into the Southeast... Thermodynamic conditions in this region are a bit more favorable than those farther north, supported by mid 60s dewpoints reaching into southern middle TN. Even so, poor lapse rates still limit the overall buoyancy, with recent mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE below 1500 J/kg across the region. General expectation is for storm coverage to increase this evening, particularly across AL and GA. Wind profiles remain supportive of organized storms, with damaging gusts and tornadoes possible throughout the evening and tonight. ..Mosier.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0816 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SMALL PART OF FAR EASTERN OH...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF TN VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts and tornadoes remain possible from the Ohio Valley to the Southeast tonight, particularly over a small part of far eastern Ohio and across portions of Tennessee Valley and Southeast States. ...01Z Update... Multiple bands of strong to severe thunderstorms continue ahead of an expansive cold front stretching from the IN/OH border southwestward through central KY, western TN, northwest MS, and central LA. Strong wind profiles will continue to support storm organization and the potential for damaging wind gusts and/or tornadoes with any discrete storms or embedded within any of the numerous line segments along and/or ahead of the front. ...Middle/Upper OH Valley... The airmass has begun to cool and stabilize ahead of the cold front moving across the region, as evidenced by the 00Z ILN and PIT soundings. Even so, strong ascent is spreading across the region and thunderstorms are expected to persist along and ahead of the front this evening. Many of the storms in this region have trended towards a more cell-in-line/embedded supercell structure as the front approaches. This trend will likely continue throughout the evening and tonight. Wind fields remain very strong, as evidenced by the recent RLX VAD profile which sampled 0-1 km bulk shear of 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt. These kinematics will likely still support a threat for damaging gusts and embedded tornadoes throughout the evening and tonight. ...TN Valley into the Southeast... Thermodynamic conditions in this region are a bit more favorable than those farther north, supported by mid 60s dewpoints reaching into southern middle TN. Even so, poor lapse rates still limit the overall buoyancy, with recent mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE below 1500 J/kg across the region. General expectation is for storm coverage to increase this evening, particularly across AL and GA. Wind profiles remain supportive of organized storms, with damaging gusts and tornadoes possible throughout the evening and tonight. ..Mosier.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0816 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SMALL PART OF FAR EASTERN OH...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF TN VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts and tornadoes remain possible from the Ohio Valley to the Southeast tonight, particularly over a small part of far eastern Ohio and across portions of Tennessee Valley and Southeast States. ...01Z Update... Multiple bands of strong to severe thunderstorms continue ahead of an expansive cold front stretching from the IN/OH border southwestward through central KY, western TN, northwest MS, and central LA. Strong wind profiles will continue to support storm organization and the potential for damaging wind gusts and/or tornadoes with any discrete storms or embedded within any of the numerous line segments along and/or ahead of the front. ...Middle/Upper OH Valley... The airmass has begun to cool and stabilize ahead of the cold front moving across the region, as evidenced by the 00Z ILN and PIT soundings. Even so, strong ascent is spreading across the region and thunderstorms are expected to persist along and ahead of the front this evening. Many of the storms in this region have trended towards a more cell-in-line/embedded supercell structure as the front approaches. This trend will likely continue throughout the evening and tonight. Wind fields remain very strong, as evidenced by the recent RLX VAD profile which sampled 0-1 km bulk shear of 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt. These kinematics will likely still support a threat for damaging gusts and embedded tornadoes throughout the evening and tonight. ...TN Valley into the Southeast... Thermodynamic conditions in this region are a bit more favorable than those farther north, supported by mid 60s dewpoints reaching into southern middle TN. Even so, poor lapse rates still limit the overall buoyancy, with recent mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE below 1500 J/kg across the region. General expectation is for storm coverage to increase this evening, particularly across AL and GA. Wind profiles remain supportive of organized storms, with damaging gusts and tornadoes possible throughout the evening and tonight. ..Mosier.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0816 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SMALL PART OF FAR EASTERN OH...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF TN VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts and tornadoes remain possible from the Ohio Valley to the Southeast tonight, particularly over a small part of far eastern Ohio and across portions of Tennessee Valley and Southeast States. ...01Z Update... Multiple bands of strong to severe thunderstorms continue ahead of an expansive cold front stretching from the IN/OH border southwestward through central KY, western TN, northwest MS, and central LA. Strong wind profiles will continue to support storm organization and the potential for damaging wind gusts and/or tornadoes with any discrete storms or embedded within any of the numerous line segments along and/or ahead of the front. ...Middle/Upper OH Valley... The airmass has begun to cool and stabilize ahead of the cold front moving across the region, as evidenced by the 00Z ILN and PIT soundings. Even so, strong ascent is spreading across the region and thunderstorms are expected to persist along and ahead of the front this evening. Many of the storms in this region have trended towards a more cell-in-line/embedded supercell structure as the front approaches. This trend will likely continue throughout the evening and tonight. Wind fields remain very strong, as evidenced by the recent RLX VAD profile which sampled 0-1 km bulk shear of 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt. These kinematics will likely still support a threat for damaging gusts and embedded tornadoes throughout the evening and tonight. ...TN Valley into the Southeast... Thermodynamic conditions in this region are a bit more favorable than those farther north, supported by mid 60s dewpoints reaching into southern middle TN. Even so, poor lapse rates still limit the overall buoyancy, with recent mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE below 1500 J/kg across the region. General expectation is for storm coverage to increase this evening, particularly across AL and GA. Wind profiles remain supportive of organized storms, with damaging gusts and tornadoes possible throughout the evening and tonight. ..Mosier.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0816 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SMALL PART OF FAR EASTERN OH...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF TN VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts and tornadoes remain possible from the Ohio Valley to the Southeast tonight, particularly over a small part of far eastern Ohio and across portions of Tennessee Valley and Southeast States. ...01Z Update... Multiple bands of strong to severe thunderstorms continue ahead of an expansive cold front stretching from the IN/OH border southwestward through central KY, western TN, northwest MS, and central LA. Strong wind profiles will continue to support storm organization and the potential for damaging wind gusts and/or tornadoes with any discrete storms or embedded within any of the numerous line segments along and/or ahead of the front. ...Middle/Upper OH Valley... The airmass has begun to cool and stabilize ahead of the cold front moving across the region, as evidenced by the 00Z ILN and PIT soundings. Even so, strong ascent is spreading across the region and thunderstorms are expected to persist along and ahead of the front this evening. Many of the storms in this region have trended towards a more cell-in-line/embedded supercell structure as the front approaches. This trend will likely continue throughout the evening and tonight. Wind fields remain very strong, as evidenced by the recent RLX VAD profile which sampled 0-1 km bulk shear of 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt. These kinematics will likely still support a threat for damaging gusts and embedded tornadoes throughout the evening and tonight. ...TN Valley into the Southeast... Thermodynamic conditions in this region are a bit more favorable than those farther north, supported by mid 60s dewpoints reaching into southern middle TN. Even so, poor lapse rates still limit the overall buoyancy, with recent mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE below 1500 J/kg across the region. General expectation is for storm coverage to increase this evening, particularly across AL and GA. Wind profiles remain supportive of organized storms, with damaging gusts and tornadoes possible throughout the evening and tonight. ..Mosier.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0816 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SMALL PART OF FAR EASTERN OH...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF TN VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts and tornadoes remain possible from the Ohio Valley to the Southeast tonight, particularly over a small part of far eastern Ohio and across portions of Tennessee Valley and Southeast States. ...01Z Update... Multiple bands of strong to severe thunderstorms continue ahead of an expansive cold front stretching from the IN/OH border southwestward through central KY, western TN, northwest MS, and central LA. Strong wind profiles will continue to support storm organization and the potential for damaging wind gusts and/or tornadoes with any discrete storms or embedded within any of the numerous line segments along and/or ahead of the front. ...Middle/Upper OH Valley... The airmass has begun to cool and stabilize ahead of the cold front moving across the region, as evidenced by the 00Z ILN and PIT soundings. Even so, strong ascent is spreading across the region and thunderstorms are expected to persist along and ahead of the front this evening. Many of the storms in this region have trended towards a more cell-in-line/embedded supercell structure as the front approaches. This trend will likely continue throughout the evening and tonight. Wind fields remain very strong, as evidenced by the recent RLX VAD profile which sampled 0-1 km bulk shear of 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt. These kinematics will likely still support a threat for damaging gusts and embedded tornadoes throughout the evening and tonight. ...TN Valley into the Southeast... Thermodynamic conditions in this region are a bit more favorable than those farther north, supported by mid 60s dewpoints reaching into southern middle TN. Even so, poor lapse rates still limit the overall buoyancy, with recent mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE below 1500 J/kg across the region. General expectation is for storm coverage to increase this evening, particularly across AL and GA. Wind profiles remain supportive of organized storms, with damaging gusts and tornadoes possible throughout the evening and tonight. ..Mosier.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0816 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SMALL PART OF FAR EASTERN OH...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF TN VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts and tornadoes remain possible from the Ohio Valley to the Southeast tonight, particularly over a small part of far eastern Ohio and across portions of Tennessee Valley and Southeast States. ...01Z Update... Multiple bands of strong to severe thunderstorms continue ahead of an expansive cold front stretching from the IN/OH border southwestward through central KY, western TN, northwest MS, and central LA. Strong wind profiles will continue to support storm organization and the potential for damaging wind gusts and/or tornadoes with any discrete storms or embedded within any of the numerous line segments along and/or ahead of the front. ...Middle/Upper OH Valley... The airmass has begun to cool and stabilize ahead of the cold front moving across the region, as evidenced by the 00Z ILN and PIT soundings. Even so, strong ascent is spreading across the region and thunderstorms are expected to persist along and ahead of the front this evening. Many of the storms in this region have trended towards a more cell-in-line/embedded supercell structure as the front approaches. This trend will likely continue throughout the evening and tonight. Wind fields remain very strong, as evidenced by the recent RLX VAD profile which sampled 0-1 km bulk shear of 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt. These kinematics will likely still support a threat for damaging gusts and embedded tornadoes throughout the evening and tonight. ...TN Valley into the Southeast... Thermodynamic conditions in this region are a bit more favorable than those farther north, supported by mid 60s dewpoints reaching into southern middle TN. Even so, poor lapse rates still limit the overall buoyancy, with recent mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE below 1500 J/kg across the region. General expectation is for storm coverage to increase this evening, particularly across AL and GA. Wind profiles remain supportive of organized storms, with damaging gusts and tornadoes possible throughout the evening and tonight. ..Mosier.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0816 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SMALL PART OF FAR EASTERN OH...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF TN VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts and tornadoes remain possible from the Ohio Valley to the Southeast tonight, particularly over a small part of far eastern Ohio and across portions of Tennessee Valley and Southeast States. ...01Z Update... Multiple bands of strong to severe thunderstorms continue ahead of an expansive cold front stretching from the IN/OH border southwestward through central KY, western TN, northwest MS, and central LA. Strong wind profiles will continue to support storm organization and the potential for damaging wind gusts and/or tornadoes with any discrete storms or embedded within any of the numerous line segments along and/or ahead of the front. ...Middle/Upper OH Valley... The airmass has begun to cool and stabilize ahead of the cold front moving across the region, as evidenced by the 00Z ILN and PIT soundings. Even so, strong ascent is spreading across the region and thunderstorms are expected to persist along and ahead of the front this evening. Many of the storms in this region have trended towards a more cell-in-line/embedded supercell structure as the front approaches. This trend will likely continue throughout the evening and tonight. Wind fields remain very strong, as evidenced by the recent RLX VAD profile which sampled 0-1 km bulk shear of 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt. These kinematics will likely still support a threat for damaging gusts and embedded tornadoes throughout the evening and tonight. ...TN Valley into the Southeast... Thermodynamic conditions in this region are a bit more favorable than those farther north, supported by mid 60s dewpoints reaching into southern middle TN. Even so, poor lapse rates still limit the overall buoyancy, with recent mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE below 1500 J/kg across the region. General expectation is for storm coverage to increase this evening, particularly across AL and GA. Wind profiles remain supportive of organized storms, with damaging gusts and tornadoes possible throughout the evening and tonight. ..Mosier.. 04/03/2024 Read more