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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1015 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND PARTS OF PENINSULAR FLORIDA...... ...SUMMARY... Strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are possible today over the region from the Arklatex to the lower Mississippi Valley, then mainly tonight over parts of peninsular Florida. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a low-amplitude, zonal to gently cyclonic flow pattern is present over most of the CONUS, ahead of a synoptic trough over the northeastern Pacific between 130W-140W. That trough will approach coastal northern/central CA near the end of the period with an embedded 500-mb low west of MRY, then move inland on day 2. Downstream, a southern-stream shortwave trough -- with several associated/small-scale vorticity maxima -- was apparent in moisture-channel imagery over eastern parts of OK/TX to the mid/upper TX Coast. This feature is expected to shift eastward across the Gulf Coast States and northern Gulf through the period, reaching parts of MS/AL and the FL Panhandle by 00Z, then moving across GA/FL in piecemeal fashion around the end of the period and early day 2. A weaker perturbation -- initially evident over parts of the Mid-Atlantic region and adjoining ocean waters -- should deamplify as it moves northeastward across New England through tonight. At the surface, a cold front was analyzed at 16Z from western QC across Lake Huron to southern MO, southeastern OK, north-central TX, and the TX South Plains region. A weak, attached low initially east of DAL should drift southward with the boundary and weaken further today, while another frontal-wave low forms ahead of the front over northern AL overnight. The front itself should move slowly southward across central/east TX, AR, and the lower Ohio Valley through the period. ...Arklatex to lower Mississippi Valley/Delta regions... The threat for marginally severe hail is ongoing with widely scattered elevated thunderstorms ongoing over portions of AR into the Arklatex region and nearby LA/east TX. Though predominantly multicellular in character, due to lack of more intense vertical shear, MUCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg range, supported by patches of favorable low-level moisture away from convectively modified air masses, should continue to support episodic development generally shifting eastward to east-southeastward across the outlook area into this afternoon. Sporadic large hail on a pulse basis will remain a threat, though isolated damaging to severe gusts cannot be ruled out as well. Several clusters or small complexes of thunderstorms may develop as the morning activity moves toward the lower Mississippi Valley, with the messier mode lessening hail potential locally but maintaining some pulse-wind threat. Strongest mid/upper winds also will be displaced over the Great Lakes and northern Gulf in distinct northern and subtropical streams -- north and south of the greatest concentrations of convection. This should maintain modest deep shear and a mostly multicell mode for inland activity. Though the prefrontal boundary layer should destabilize diurnally, especially over western parts of the outlook area ahead of the cold front -- mid/upper forcing for ascent will be displaced farther east into the Delta region with time -- and ultimately over parts of the Southeast containing less-suitable low-level moisture and instability. Though isolated strong-severe afternoon thunderstorms may form closer to the front in east TX, AR and LA, large-scale subsidence behind the trough will foster stable layers that may inhibit sustained convection over the greatest low-level instability today. With associated coverage uncertainties, overall unconditional severe probabilities are kept at marginal levels for the time being. ...FL... As the large-scale ascent/destabilization passes over the north- central/northeastern Gulf waters -- including the Loop Current -- low/middle-level lapse rates should steepen with weakening MLCINH. This may support upscale organization of convection now near and off the northern coastline into a quasi-linear MCS that would move east-southeastward across the Gulf, reaching the West Coast of FL late this evening or overnight, before shifting eastward over at least parts of the peninsula. Additional convection may form late during the diurnal heating cycle this afternoon, and/or in a zone of increasing warm advection and low-level convergence/lift ahead of the MCS this evening. While both synoptic and convection-allowing guidance is inconsistent on mesoscale timing of the complex, or greatest coverage areas of pre-MCS activity, the general notion of increasing convective potential from late afternoon onward over FL is supported by the pattern and by ongoing offshore convective trends. As such, while the severe threat still looks conditional (especially given some nocturnal stabilization likely to occur inland over FL), at least a marginal unconditional risk now is apparent, given increasing deep shear progged across most of the area, and at least marginal low-level instability with around 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE away from convective outflows. Progged hodographs generally are not particularly large, though storm-scale and boundary interactions can modify them locally to become more favorable, amidst 35-45-kt effective-shear magnitudes. ..15_ows.. 03/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1015 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND PARTS OF PENINSULAR FLORIDA...... ...SUMMARY... Strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are possible today over the region from the Arklatex to the lower Mississippi Valley, then mainly tonight over parts of peninsular Florida. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a low-amplitude, zonal to gently cyclonic flow pattern is present over most of the CONUS, ahead of a synoptic trough over the northeastern Pacific between 130W-140W. That trough will approach coastal northern/central CA near the end of the period with an embedded 500-mb low west of MRY, then move inland on day 2. Downstream, a southern-stream shortwave trough -- with several associated/small-scale vorticity maxima -- was apparent in moisture-channel imagery over eastern parts of OK/TX to the mid/upper TX Coast. This feature is expected to shift eastward across the Gulf Coast States and northern Gulf through the period, reaching parts of MS/AL and the FL Panhandle by 00Z, then moving across GA/FL in piecemeal fashion around the end of the period and early day 2. A weaker perturbation -- initially evident over parts of the Mid-Atlantic region and adjoining ocean waters -- should deamplify as it moves northeastward across New England through tonight. At the surface, a cold front was analyzed at 16Z from western QC across Lake Huron to southern MO, southeastern OK, north-central TX, and the TX South Plains region. A weak, attached low initially east of DAL should drift southward with the boundary and weaken further today, while another frontal-wave low forms ahead of the front over northern AL overnight. The front itself should move slowly southward across central/east TX, AR, and the lower Ohio Valley through the period. ...Arklatex to lower Mississippi Valley/Delta regions... The threat for marginally severe hail is ongoing with widely scattered elevated thunderstorms ongoing over portions of AR into the Arklatex region and nearby LA/east TX. Though predominantly multicellular in character, due to lack of more intense vertical shear, MUCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg range, supported by patches of favorable low-level moisture away from convectively modified air masses, should continue to support episodic development generally shifting eastward to east-southeastward across the outlook area into this afternoon. Sporadic large hail on a pulse basis will remain a threat, though isolated damaging to severe gusts cannot be ruled out as well. Several clusters or small complexes of thunderstorms may develop as the morning activity moves toward the lower Mississippi Valley, with the messier mode lessening hail potential locally but maintaining some pulse-wind threat. Strongest mid/upper winds also will be displaced over the Great Lakes and northern Gulf in distinct northern and subtropical streams -- north and south of the greatest concentrations of convection. This should maintain modest deep shear and a mostly multicell mode for inland activity. Though the prefrontal boundary layer should destabilize diurnally, especially over western parts of the outlook area ahead of the cold front -- mid/upper forcing for ascent will be displaced farther east into the Delta region with time -- and ultimately over parts of the Southeast containing less-suitable low-level moisture and instability. Though isolated strong-severe afternoon thunderstorms may form closer to the front in east TX, AR and LA, large-scale subsidence behind the trough will foster stable layers that may inhibit sustained convection over the greatest low-level instability today. With associated coverage uncertainties, overall unconditional severe probabilities are kept at marginal levels for the time being. ...FL... As the large-scale ascent/destabilization passes over the north- central/northeastern Gulf waters -- including the Loop Current -- low/middle-level lapse rates should steepen with weakening MLCINH. This may support upscale organization of convection now near and off the northern coastline into a quasi-linear MCS that would move east-southeastward across the Gulf, reaching the West Coast of FL late this evening or overnight, before shifting eastward over at least parts of the peninsula. Additional convection may form late during the diurnal heating cycle this afternoon, and/or in a zone of increasing warm advection and low-level convergence/lift ahead of the MCS this evening. While both synoptic and convection-allowing guidance is inconsistent on mesoscale timing of the complex, or greatest coverage areas of pre-MCS activity, the general notion of increasing convective potential from late afternoon onward over FL is supported by the pattern and by ongoing offshore convective trends. As such, while the severe threat still looks conditional (especially given some nocturnal stabilization likely to occur inland over FL), at least a marginal unconditional risk now is apparent, given increasing deep shear progged across most of the area, and at least marginal low-level instability with around 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE away from convective outflows. Progged hodographs generally are not particularly large, though storm-scale and boundary interactions can modify them locally to become more favorable, amidst 35-45-kt effective-shear magnitudes. ..15_ows.. 03/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1015 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND PARTS OF PENINSULAR FLORIDA...... ...SUMMARY... Strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are possible today over the region from the Arklatex to the lower Mississippi Valley, then mainly tonight over parts of peninsular Florida. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a low-amplitude, zonal to gently cyclonic flow pattern is present over most of the CONUS, ahead of a synoptic trough over the northeastern Pacific between 130W-140W. That trough will approach coastal northern/central CA near the end of the period with an embedded 500-mb low west of MRY, then move inland on day 2. Downstream, a southern-stream shortwave trough -- with several associated/small-scale vorticity maxima -- was apparent in moisture-channel imagery over eastern parts of OK/TX to the mid/upper TX Coast. This feature is expected to shift eastward across the Gulf Coast States and northern Gulf through the period, reaching parts of MS/AL and the FL Panhandle by 00Z, then moving across GA/FL in piecemeal fashion around the end of the period and early day 2. A weaker perturbation -- initially evident over parts of the Mid-Atlantic region and adjoining ocean waters -- should deamplify as it moves northeastward across New England through tonight. At the surface, a cold front was analyzed at 16Z from western QC across Lake Huron to southern MO, southeastern OK, north-central TX, and the TX South Plains region. A weak, attached low initially east of DAL should drift southward with the boundary and weaken further today, while another frontal-wave low forms ahead of the front over northern AL overnight. The front itself should move slowly southward across central/east TX, AR, and the lower Ohio Valley through the period. ...Arklatex to lower Mississippi Valley/Delta regions... The threat for marginally severe hail is ongoing with widely scattered elevated thunderstorms ongoing over portions of AR into the Arklatex region and nearby LA/east TX. Though predominantly multicellular in character, due to lack of more intense vertical shear, MUCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg range, supported by patches of favorable low-level moisture away from convectively modified air masses, should continue to support episodic development generally shifting eastward to east-southeastward across the outlook area into this afternoon. Sporadic large hail on a pulse basis will remain a threat, though isolated damaging to severe gusts cannot be ruled out as well. Several clusters or small complexes of thunderstorms may develop as the morning activity moves toward the lower Mississippi Valley, with the messier mode lessening hail potential locally but maintaining some pulse-wind threat. Strongest mid/upper winds also will be displaced over the Great Lakes and northern Gulf in distinct northern and subtropical streams -- north and south of the greatest concentrations of convection. This should maintain modest deep shear and a mostly multicell mode for inland activity. Though the prefrontal boundary layer should destabilize diurnally, especially over western parts of the outlook area ahead of the cold front -- mid/upper forcing for ascent will be displaced farther east into the Delta region with time -- and ultimately over parts of the Southeast containing less-suitable low-level moisture and instability. Though isolated strong-severe afternoon thunderstorms may form closer to the front in east TX, AR and LA, large-scale subsidence behind the trough will foster stable layers that may inhibit sustained convection over the greatest low-level instability today. With associated coverage uncertainties, overall unconditional severe probabilities are kept at marginal levels for the time being. ...FL... As the large-scale ascent/destabilization passes over the north- central/northeastern Gulf waters -- including the Loop Current -- low/middle-level lapse rates should steepen with weakening MLCINH. This may support upscale organization of convection now near and off the northern coastline into a quasi-linear MCS that would move east-southeastward across the Gulf, reaching the West Coast of FL late this evening or overnight, before shifting eastward over at least parts of the peninsula. Additional convection may form late during the diurnal heating cycle this afternoon, and/or in a zone of increasing warm advection and low-level convergence/lift ahead of the MCS this evening. While both synoptic and convection-allowing guidance is inconsistent on mesoscale timing of the complex, or greatest coverage areas of pre-MCS activity, the general notion of increasing convective potential from late afternoon onward over FL is supported by the pattern and by ongoing offshore convective trends. As such, while the severe threat still looks conditional (especially given some nocturnal stabilization likely to occur inland over FL), at least a marginal unconditional risk now is apparent, given increasing deep shear progged across most of the area, and at least marginal low-level instability with around 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE away from convective outflows. Progged hodographs generally are not particularly large, though storm-scale and boundary interactions can modify them locally to become more favorable, amidst 35-45-kt effective-shear magnitudes. ..15_ows.. 03/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND PARTS OF PENINSULAR FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are possible today over the region from the Arklatex to the lower Mississippi Valley, then mainly tonight over parts of peninsular Florida. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a low-amplitude, zonal to gently cyclonic flow pattern is present over most of the CONUS, ahead of a synoptic trough over the northeastern Pacific between 130W-140W. That trough will approach coastal northern/central CA near the end of the period with an embedded 500-mb low west of MRY, then move inland on day 2. Downstream, a southern-stream shortwave trough -- with several associated/small-scale vorticity maxima -- was apparent in moisture-channel imagery over eastern parts of OK/TX to the mid/upper TX Coast. This feature is expected to shift eastward across the Gulf Coast States and northern Gulf through the period, reaching parts of MS/AL and the FL Panhandle by 00Z, then moving across GA/FL in piecemeal fashion around the end of the period and early day 2. A weaker perturbation -- initially evident over parts of the Mid-Atlantic region and adjoining ocean waters -- should deamplify as it moves northeastward across New England through tonight. At the surface, a cold front was analyzed at 11Z from western QC across Lake Huron to southern MO, southeastern OK, north-central TX, and the TX South Plains region. A weak, attached low initially east of DAL should drift southward with the boundary and weaken further today, while another frontal-wave low forms ahead of the front over northern AL overnight. The front itself should move slowly southward across central/east TX, AR, and the lower Ohio Valley through the period. ...Arklatex to lower Mississippi Valley/Delta regions... The threat for marginally severe hail is ongoing with widely scattered elevated thunderstorms ongoing over portions of AR into the Arklatex region and nearby LA/east TX. Though predominantly multicellular in character, due to lack of more intense vertical shear, MUCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg range, supported by patches of favorable low-level moisture away from convectively modified air masses, should continue to support episodic development generally shifting eastward to east-southeastward across the outlook area into this afternoon. Sporadic large hail on a pulse basis will remain a threat, though isolated damaging to severe gusts cannot be ruled out as well. Several clusters or small complexes of thunderstorms may develop as the morning activity moves toward the lower Mississippi Valley, with the messier mode lessening hail potential locally but maintaining some pulse-wind threat. Strongest mid/upper winds also will be displaced over the Great Lakes and northern Gulf in distinct northern and subtropical streams -- north and south of the greatest concentrations of convection. This should maintain modest deep shear and a mostly multicell mode for inland activity. Though the prefrontal boundary layer should destabilize diurnally, especially over western parts of the outlook area ahead of the cold front -- mid/upper forcing for ascent will be displaced farther east into the Delta region with time -- and ultimately over parts of the Southeast containing less-suitable low-level moisture and instability. Though isolated strong-severe afternoon thunderstorms may form closer to the front in east TX, AR and LA, large-scale subsidence behind the trough will foster stable layers that may inhibit sustained convection over the greatest low-level instability today. With associated coverage uncertainties, overall unconditional severe probabilities are kept at marginal levels for the time being. ...FL... As the large-scale ascent/destabilization passes over the north- central/northeastern Gulf waters -- including the Loop Current -- low/middle-level lapse rates should steepen with weakening MLCINH. This may support upscale organization of convection now near and off the northern coastline into a quasi-linear MCS that would move east-southeastward across the Gulf, reaching the West Coast of FL late this evening or overnight, before shifting eastward over at least parts of the peninsula. Additional convection may form late during the diurnal heating cycle this afternoon, and/or in a zone of increasing warm advection and low-level convergence/lift ahead of the MCS this evening. While both synoptic and convection-allowing guidance is inconsistent on mesoscale timing of the complex, or greatest coverage areas of pre-MCS activity, the general notion of increasing convective potential from late afternoon onward over FL is supported by the pattern and by ongoing offshore convective trends. As such, while the severe threat still looks conditional (especially given some nocturnal stabilization likely to occur inland over FL), at least a marginal unconditional risk now is apparent, given increasing deep shear progged across most of the area, and at least marginal low-level instability with around 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE away from convective outflows. Progged hodographs generally are not particularly large, though storm-scale and boundary interactions can modify them locally to become more favorable, amidst 35-45-kt effective-shear magnitudes. ..Edwards/Jewell.. 03/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND PARTS OF PENINSULAR FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are possible today over the region from the Arklatex to the lower Mississippi Valley, then mainly tonight over parts of peninsular Florida. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a low-amplitude, zonal to gently cyclonic flow pattern is present over most of the CONUS, ahead of a synoptic trough over the northeastern Pacific between 130W-140W. That trough will approach coastal northern/central CA near the end of the period with an embedded 500-mb low west of MRY, then move inland on day 2. Downstream, a southern-stream shortwave trough -- with several associated/small-scale vorticity maxima -- was apparent in moisture-channel imagery over eastern parts of OK/TX to the mid/upper TX Coast. This feature is expected to shift eastward across the Gulf Coast States and northern Gulf through the period, reaching parts of MS/AL and the FL Panhandle by 00Z, then moving across GA/FL in piecemeal fashion around the end of the period and early day 2. A weaker perturbation -- initially evident over parts of the Mid-Atlantic region and adjoining ocean waters -- should deamplify as it moves northeastward across New England through tonight. At the surface, a cold front was analyzed at 11Z from western QC across Lake Huron to southern MO, southeastern OK, north-central TX, and the TX South Plains region. A weak, attached low initially east of DAL should drift southward with the boundary and weaken further today, while another frontal-wave low forms ahead of the front over northern AL overnight. The front itself should move slowly southward across central/east TX, AR, and the lower Ohio Valley through the period. ...Arklatex to lower Mississippi Valley/Delta regions... The threat for marginally severe hail is ongoing with widely scattered elevated thunderstorms ongoing over portions of AR into the Arklatex region and nearby LA/east TX. Though predominantly multicellular in character, due to lack of more intense vertical shear, MUCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg range, supported by patches of favorable low-level moisture away from convectively modified air masses, should continue to support episodic development generally shifting eastward to east-southeastward across the outlook area into this afternoon. Sporadic large hail on a pulse basis will remain a threat, though isolated damaging to severe gusts cannot be ruled out as well. Several clusters or small complexes of thunderstorms may develop as the morning activity moves toward the lower Mississippi Valley, with the messier mode lessening hail potential locally but maintaining some pulse-wind threat. Strongest mid/upper winds also will be displaced over the Great Lakes and northern Gulf in distinct northern and subtropical streams -- north and south of the greatest concentrations of convection. This should maintain modest deep shear and a mostly multicell mode for inland activity. Though the prefrontal boundary layer should destabilize diurnally, especially over western parts of the outlook area ahead of the cold front -- mid/upper forcing for ascent will be displaced farther east into the Delta region with time -- and ultimately over parts of the Southeast containing less-suitable low-level moisture and instability. Though isolated strong-severe afternoon thunderstorms may form closer to the front in east TX, AR and LA, large-scale subsidence behind the trough will foster stable layers that may inhibit sustained convection over the greatest low-level instability today. With associated coverage uncertainties, overall unconditional severe probabilities are kept at marginal levels for the time being. ...FL... As the large-scale ascent/destabilization passes over the north- central/northeastern Gulf waters -- including the Loop Current -- low/middle-level lapse rates should steepen with weakening MLCINH. This may support upscale organization of convection now near and off the northern coastline into a quasi-linear MCS that would move east-southeastward across the Gulf, reaching the West Coast of FL late this evening or overnight, before shifting eastward over at least parts of the peninsula. Additional convection may form late during the diurnal heating cycle this afternoon, and/or in a zone of increasing warm advection and low-level convergence/lift ahead of the MCS this evening. While both synoptic and convection-allowing guidance is inconsistent on mesoscale timing of the complex, or greatest coverage areas of pre-MCS activity, the general notion of increasing convective potential from late afternoon onward over FL is supported by the pattern and by ongoing offshore convective trends. As such, while the severe threat still looks conditional (especially given some nocturnal stabilization likely to occur inland over FL), at least a marginal unconditional risk now is apparent, given increasing deep shear progged across most of the area, and at least marginal low-level instability with around 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE away from convective outflows. Progged hodographs generally are not particularly large, though storm-scale and boundary interactions can modify them locally to become more favorable, amidst 35-45-kt effective-shear magnitudes. ..Edwards/Jewell.. 03/05/2024 Read more

MD 0190 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN TEXAS INTO PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0190 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0407 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Areas affected...eastern Texas into parts of Arkansas and Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 051007Z - 051230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms will persist this morning from eastern Texas into western Arkansas, southeast Oklahoma, and western Louisiana. Sporadic severe hail will remain possible with the stronger cells, but coverage and severity does not warrant a watch. DISCUSSION...A plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints is in place over the region, ahead of a surface trough extending from south-central MO across southeast OK and into northern TX. Although low-level winds and surface convergence are relatively weak, the influence of a midlevel shortwave is resulting in sufficient lift to support development. Various clusters of cells are ongoing from eastern TX into AR, with weaker development even farther north. However, the greatest threat of hail over 1.00" diameter over the next several hours should be near the instability axis from southeast OK and the Arklatex southward, where MUCAPE is over 2000 J/kg. Lack of deep-layer shear is likely minimizing the severe risk to an extent, with 500 mb winds only around 25 kt where the storms are ongoing. Stronger speeds do exist farther south along the TX Coast and toward southern LA, currently removed from the zone of ascent. As such, the threat of sporadic, short-lived hail cores is forecast to persist through the morning, shifting slowly east with the midlevel wave. Cells over southern areas may experience a more favorable shear environment, and an isolated hail report to around 1.75" cannot be ruled out. ..Jewell/Edwards.. 03/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 30909291 30569347 30529417 30619483 30849531 31259564 32139611 32739625 33569634 34129603 34589553 34759487 34709408 34429339 34049305 32519273 32069262 31409273 30909291 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Enhanced mid/upper-level flow associated with an upper trough will overspread much of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast States on Day 4/Friday. Thunderstorms should be ongoing Friday morning across parts of central/east TX. Strong deep-layer shear should continue to support updraft organization, with enough MUCAPE present for robust convection. The severe threat on Friday should shift from TX into the lower MS Valley in tandem with a northward-developing warm sector and low-level moisture return. Latest guidance has trended slightly later with the upper trough ejection, and depicts a somewhat weaker surface low. Accordingly, it appears that the rich low-level moisture may not advance as far northward as indicated previously across the central Gulf Coast States. Have therefore trimmed the northern extent of the 15% severe area for Friday across central MS/AL. There will still be a severe risk for areas closer to the coast, where a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail with surface-based convection through Friday night. The upper trough and related mid/upper-level jet should continue moving eastward across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions on Day 5/Saturday. Some severe threat should persist across these areas through Saturday night. However, there may be a tendency for convection to outpace the low-level moisture return and gradually become more elevated with eastward extent across the Southeast. Still, parts of southern AL into the FL Panhandle/north FL and GA/SC/NC will be closely monitored for possible inclusion in a 15% severe area if confidence increases that sufficient instability will exist to support surface-based thunderstorms and a corresponding risk for tornadoes and damaging winds. Once the surface cold front associated with the upper cyclone clears the East Coast on Day 6/Sunday, severe potential should remain minimal across the CONUS through early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Enhanced mid/upper-level flow associated with an upper trough will overspread much of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast States on Day 4/Friday. Thunderstorms should be ongoing Friday morning across parts of central/east TX. Strong deep-layer shear should continue to support updraft organization, with enough MUCAPE present for robust convection. The severe threat on Friday should shift from TX into the lower MS Valley in tandem with a northward-developing warm sector and low-level moisture return. Latest guidance has trended slightly later with the upper trough ejection, and depicts a somewhat weaker surface low. Accordingly, it appears that the rich low-level moisture may not advance as far northward as indicated previously across the central Gulf Coast States. Have therefore trimmed the northern extent of the 15% severe area for Friday across central MS/AL. There will still be a severe risk for areas closer to the coast, where a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail with surface-based convection through Friday night. The upper trough and related mid/upper-level jet should continue moving eastward across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions on Day 5/Saturday. Some severe threat should persist across these areas through Saturday night. However, there may be a tendency for convection to outpace the low-level moisture return and gradually become more elevated with eastward extent across the Southeast. Still, parts of southern AL into the FL Panhandle/north FL and GA/SC/NC will be closely monitored for possible inclusion in a 15% severe area if confidence increases that sufficient instability will exist to support surface-based thunderstorms and a corresponding risk for tornadoes and damaging winds. Once the surface cold front associated with the upper cyclone clears the East Coast on Day 6/Sunday, severe potential should remain minimal across the CONUS through early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Enhanced mid/upper-level flow associated with an upper trough will overspread much of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast States on Day 4/Friday. Thunderstorms should be ongoing Friday morning across parts of central/east TX. Strong deep-layer shear should continue to support updraft organization, with enough MUCAPE present for robust convection. The severe threat on Friday should shift from TX into the lower MS Valley in tandem with a northward-developing warm sector and low-level moisture return. Latest guidance has trended slightly later with the upper trough ejection, and depicts a somewhat weaker surface low. Accordingly, it appears that the rich low-level moisture may not advance as far northward as indicated previously across the central Gulf Coast States. Have therefore trimmed the northern extent of the 15% severe area for Friday across central MS/AL. There will still be a severe risk for areas closer to the coast, where a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail with surface-based convection through Friday night. The upper trough and related mid/upper-level jet should continue moving eastward across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions on Day 5/Saturday. Some severe threat should persist across these areas through Saturday night. However, there may be a tendency for convection to outpace the low-level moisture return and gradually become more elevated with eastward extent across the Southeast. Still, parts of southern AL into the FL Panhandle/north FL and GA/SC/NC will be closely monitored for possible inclusion in a 15% severe area if confidence increases that sufficient instability will exist to support surface-based thunderstorms and a corresponding risk for tornadoes and damaging winds. Once the surface cold front associated with the upper cyclone clears the East Coast on Day 6/Sunday, severe potential should remain minimal across the CONUS through early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Enhanced mid/upper-level flow associated with an upper trough will overspread much of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast States on Day 4/Friday. Thunderstorms should be ongoing Friday morning across parts of central/east TX. Strong deep-layer shear should continue to support updraft organization, with enough MUCAPE present for robust convection. The severe threat on Friday should shift from TX into the lower MS Valley in tandem with a northward-developing warm sector and low-level moisture return. Latest guidance has trended slightly later with the upper trough ejection, and depicts a somewhat weaker surface low. Accordingly, it appears that the rich low-level moisture may not advance as far northward as indicated previously across the central Gulf Coast States. Have therefore trimmed the northern extent of the 15% severe area for Friday across central MS/AL. There will still be a severe risk for areas closer to the coast, where a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail with surface-based convection through Friday night. The upper trough and related mid/upper-level jet should continue moving eastward across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions on Day 5/Saturday. Some severe threat should persist across these areas through Saturday night. However, there may be a tendency for convection to outpace the low-level moisture return and gradually become more elevated with eastward extent across the Southeast. Still, parts of southern AL into the FL Panhandle/north FL and GA/SC/NC will be closely monitored for possible inclusion in a 15% severe area if confidence increases that sufficient instability will exist to support surface-based thunderstorms and a corresponding risk for tornadoes and damaging winds. Once the surface cold front associated with the upper cyclone clears the East Coast on Day 6/Sunday, severe potential should remain minimal across the CONUS through early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Enhanced mid/upper-level flow associated with an upper trough will overspread much of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast States on Day 4/Friday. Thunderstorms should be ongoing Friday morning across parts of central/east TX. Strong deep-layer shear should continue to support updraft organization, with enough MUCAPE present for robust convection. The severe threat on Friday should shift from TX into the lower MS Valley in tandem with a northward-developing warm sector and low-level moisture return. Latest guidance has trended slightly later with the upper trough ejection, and depicts a somewhat weaker surface low. Accordingly, it appears that the rich low-level moisture may not advance as far northward as indicated previously across the central Gulf Coast States. Have therefore trimmed the northern extent of the 15% severe area for Friday across central MS/AL. There will still be a severe risk for areas closer to the coast, where a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail with surface-based convection through Friday night. The upper trough and related mid/upper-level jet should continue moving eastward across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions on Day 5/Saturday. Some severe threat should persist across these areas through Saturday night. However, there may be a tendency for convection to outpace the low-level moisture return and gradually become more elevated with eastward extent across the Southeast. Still, parts of southern AL into the FL Panhandle/north FL and GA/SC/NC will be closely monitored for possible inclusion in a 15% severe area if confidence increases that sufficient instability will exist to support surface-based thunderstorms and a corresponding risk for tornadoes and damaging winds. Once the surface cold front associated with the upper cyclone clears the East Coast on Day 6/Sunday, severe potential should remain minimal across the CONUS through early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Enhanced mid/upper-level flow associated with an upper trough will overspread much of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast States on Day 4/Friday. Thunderstorms should be ongoing Friday morning across parts of central/east TX. Strong deep-layer shear should continue to support updraft organization, with enough MUCAPE present for robust convection. The severe threat on Friday should shift from TX into the lower MS Valley in tandem with a northward-developing warm sector and low-level moisture return. Latest guidance has trended slightly later with the upper trough ejection, and depicts a somewhat weaker surface low. Accordingly, it appears that the rich low-level moisture may not advance as far northward as indicated previously across the central Gulf Coast States. Have therefore trimmed the northern extent of the 15% severe area for Friday across central MS/AL. There will still be a severe risk for areas closer to the coast, where a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail with surface-based convection through Friday night. The upper trough and related mid/upper-level jet should continue moving eastward across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions on Day 5/Saturday. Some severe threat should persist across these areas through Saturday night. However, there may be a tendency for convection to outpace the low-level moisture return and gradually become more elevated with eastward extent across the Southeast. Still, parts of southern AL into the FL Panhandle/north FL and GA/SC/NC will be closely monitored for possible inclusion in a 15% severe area if confidence increases that sufficient instability will exist to support surface-based thunderstorms and a corresponding risk for tornadoes and damaging winds. Once the surface cold front associated with the upper cyclone clears the East Coast on Day 6/Sunday, severe potential should remain minimal across the CONUS through early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Enhanced mid/upper-level flow associated with an upper trough will overspread much of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast States on Day 4/Friday. Thunderstorms should be ongoing Friday morning across parts of central/east TX. Strong deep-layer shear should continue to support updraft organization, with enough MUCAPE present for robust convection. The severe threat on Friday should shift from TX into the lower MS Valley in tandem with a northward-developing warm sector and low-level moisture return. Latest guidance has trended slightly later with the upper trough ejection, and depicts a somewhat weaker surface low. Accordingly, it appears that the rich low-level moisture may not advance as far northward as indicated previously across the central Gulf Coast States. Have therefore trimmed the northern extent of the 15% severe area for Friday across central MS/AL. There will still be a severe risk for areas closer to the coast, where a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail with surface-based convection through Friday night. The upper trough and related mid/upper-level jet should continue moving eastward across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions on Day 5/Saturday. Some severe threat should persist across these areas through Saturday night. However, there may be a tendency for convection to outpace the low-level moisture return and gradually become more elevated with eastward extent across the Southeast. Still, parts of southern AL into the FL Panhandle/north FL and GA/SC/NC will be closely monitored for possible inclusion in a 15% severe area if confidence increases that sufficient instability will exist to support surface-based thunderstorms and a corresponding risk for tornadoes and damaging winds. Once the surface cold front associated with the upper cyclone clears the East Coast on Day 6/Sunday, severe potential should remain minimal across the CONUS through early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Enhanced mid/upper-level flow associated with an upper trough will overspread much of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast States on Day 4/Friday. Thunderstorms should be ongoing Friday morning across parts of central/east TX. Strong deep-layer shear should continue to support updraft organization, with enough MUCAPE present for robust convection. The severe threat on Friday should shift from TX into the lower MS Valley in tandem with a northward-developing warm sector and low-level moisture return. Latest guidance has trended slightly later with the upper trough ejection, and depicts a somewhat weaker surface low. Accordingly, it appears that the rich low-level moisture may not advance as far northward as indicated previously across the central Gulf Coast States. Have therefore trimmed the northern extent of the 15% severe area for Friday across central MS/AL. There will still be a severe risk for areas closer to the coast, where a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail with surface-based convection through Friday night. The upper trough and related mid/upper-level jet should continue moving eastward across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions on Day 5/Saturday. Some severe threat should persist across these areas through Saturday night. However, there may be a tendency for convection to outpace the low-level moisture return and gradually become more elevated with eastward extent across the Southeast. Still, parts of southern AL into the FL Panhandle/north FL and GA/SC/NC will be closely monitored for possible inclusion in a 15% severe area if confidence increases that sufficient instability will exist to support surface-based thunderstorms and a corresponding risk for tornadoes and damaging winds. Once the surface cold front associated with the upper cyclone clears the East Coast on Day 6/Sunday, severe potential should remain minimal across the CONUS through early next week. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Thursday afternoon through Thursday night across parts of the southern Plains to the ArkLaTex vicinity. Large hail should be the main threat. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex... An upper trough/low initially centered over southern CA and northwest Mexico will traverse eastward across the Southwest and adjacent parts of northern Mexico on Thursday. Large-scale ascent preceding this upper trough will encourage lee cyclogenesis across the southern High Plains through Thursday evening. Modest low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 50s to low 60s, should advance northward through the day across parts of TX into OK along and east of a surface dryline. A front is also forecast to sharpen on the northern edge of appreciable low-level moisture return across northern OK and southern KS. Elevated thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of the southern/central Plains, with a generally low severe threat owing to weak MUCAPE forecast. There are still some differences in model guidance regarding the strength of the surface low across west TX, the placement of the dryline by late Thursday afternoon, and with the quality of low-level moisture return. Even with these continued uncertainties, weak to moderate instability should develop by peak afternoon heating along much of the length of the dryline, and south of the front in northern OK/southern KS. NAM forecast soundings across these areas show steep mid-level lapse rates present, along with strong deep-layer shear that should be more than sufficient for supercells. The primary uncertainty remains timing of surface-based convective initiation, and overall coverage given that the ejection of the upper trough across the southern High Plains is forecast to occur mainly Thursday night into early Friday morning. Still, any supercells that can develop should pose a threat for large hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat is less clear, with modest low-level moisture a potentially limiting factor. Regardless, a Slight Risk has been maintained where confidence is highest that convection will eventually develop through Thursday night. A broader Marginal Risk is in place across southern KS into OK/TX and the ArkLaTex where some potential for severe hail may exist, even though thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain elevated. ..Gleason.. 03/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Thursday afternoon through Thursday night across parts of the southern Plains to the ArkLaTex vicinity. Large hail should be the main threat. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex... An upper trough/low initially centered over southern CA and northwest Mexico will traverse eastward across the Southwest and adjacent parts of northern Mexico on Thursday. Large-scale ascent preceding this upper trough will encourage lee cyclogenesis across the southern High Plains through Thursday evening. Modest low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 50s to low 60s, should advance northward through the day across parts of TX into OK along and east of a surface dryline. A front is also forecast to sharpen on the northern edge of appreciable low-level moisture return across northern OK and southern KS. Elevated thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of the southern/central Plains, with a generally low severe threat owing to weak MUCAPE forecast. There are still some differences in model guidance regarding the strength of the surface low across west TX, the placement of the dryline by late Thursday afternoon, and with the quality of low-level moisture return. Even with these continued uncertainties, weak to moderate instability should develop by peak afternoon heating along much of the length of the dryline, and south of the front in northern OK/southern KS. NAM forecast soundings across these areas show steep mid-level lapse rates present, along with strong deep-layer shear that should be more than sufficient for supercells. The primary uncertainty remains timing of surface-based convective initiation, and overall coverage given that the ejection of the upper trough across the southern High Plains is forecast to occur mainly Thursday night into early Friday morning. Still, any supercells that can develop should pose a threat for large hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat is less clear, with modest low-level moisture a potentially limiting factor. Regardless, a Slight Risk has been maintained where confidence is highest that convection will eventually develop through Thursday night. A broader Marginal Risk is in place across southern KS into OK/TX and the ArkLaTex where some potential for severe hail may exist, even though thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain elevated. ..Gleason.. 03/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Thursday afternoon through Thursday night across parts of the southern Plains to the ArkLaTex vicinity. Large hail should be the main threat. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex... An upper trough/low initially centered over southern CA and northwest Mexico will traverse eastward across the Southwest and adjacent parts of northern Mexico on Thursday. Large-scale ascent preceding this upper trough will encourage lee cyclogenesis across the southern High Plains through Thursday evening. Modest low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 50s to low 60s, should advance northward through the day across parts of TX into OK along and east of a surface dryline. A front is also forecast to sharpen on the northern edge of appreciable low-level moisture return across northern OK and southern KS. Elevated thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of the southern/central Plains, with a generally low severe threat owing to weak MUCAPE forecast. There are still some differences in model guidance regarding the strength of the surface low across west TX, the placement of the dryline by late Thursday afternoon, and with the quality of low-level moisture return. Even with these continued uncertainties, weak to moderate instability should develop by peak afternoon heating along much of the length of the dryline, and south of the front in northern OK/southern KS. NAM forecast soundings across these areas show steep mid-level lapse rates present, along with strong deep-layer shear that should be more than sufficient for supercells. The primary uncertainty remains timing of surface-based convective initiation, and overall coverage given that the ejection of the upper trough across the southern High Plains is forecast to occur mainly Thursday night into early Friday morning. Still, any supercells that can develop should pose a threat for large hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat is less clear, with modest low-level moisture a potentially limiting factor. Regardless, a Slight Risk has been maintained where confidence is highest that convection will eventually develop through Thursday night. A broader Marginal Risk is in place across southern KS into OK/TX and the ArkLaTex where some potential for severe hail may exist, even though thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain elevated. ..Gleason.. 03/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Thursday afternoon through Thursday night across parts of the southern Plains to the ArkLaTex vicinity. Large hail should be the main threat. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex... An upper trough/low initially centered over southern CA and northwest Mexico will traverse eastward across the Southwest and adjacent parts of northern Mexico on Thursday. Large-scale ascent preceding this upper trough will encourage lee cyclogenesis across the southern High Plains through Thursday evening. Modest low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 50s to low 60s, should advance northward through the day across parts of TX into OK along and east of a surface dryline. A front is also forecast to sharpen on the northern edge of appreciable low-level moisture return across northern OK and southern KS. Elevated thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of the southern/central Plains, with a generally low severe threat owing to weak MUCAPE forecast. There are still some differences in model guidance regarding the strength of the surface low across west TX, the placement of the dryline by late Thursday afternoon, and with the quality of low-level moisture return. Even with these continued uncertainties, weak to moderate instability should develop by peak afternoon heating along much of the length of the dryline, and south of the front in northern OK/southern KS. NAM forecast soundings across these areas show steep mid-level lapse rates present, along with strong deep-layer shear that should be more than sufficient for supercells. The primary uncertainty remains timing of surface-based convective initiation, and overall coverage given that the ejection of the upper trough across the southern High Plains is forecast to occur mainly Thursday night into early Friday morning. Still, any supercells that can develop should pose a threat for large hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat is less clear, with modest low-level moisture a potentially limiting factor. Regardless, a Slight Risk has been maintained where confidence is highest that convection will eventually develop through Thursday night. A broader Marginal Risk is in place across southern KS into OK/TX and the ArkLaTex where some potential for severe hail may exist, even though thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain elevated. ..Gleason.. 03/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Thursday afternoon through Thursday night across parts of the southern Plains to the ArkLaTex vicinity. Large hail should be the main threat. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex... An upper trough/low initially centered over southern CA and northwest Mexico will traverse eastward across the Southwest and adjacent parts of northern Mexico on Thursday. Large-scale ascent preceding this upper trough will encourage lee cyclogenesis across the southern High Plains through Thursday evening. Modest low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 50s to low 60s, should advance northward through the day across parts of TX into OK along and east of a surface dryline. A front is also forecast to sharpen on the northern edge of appreciable low-level moisture return across northern OK and southern KS. Elevated thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of the southern/central Plains, with a generally low severe threat owing to weak MUCAPE forecast. There are still some differences in model guidance regarding the strength of the surface low across west TX, the placement of the dryline by late Thursday afternoon, and with the quality of low-level moisture return. Even with these continued uncertainties, weak to moderate instability should develop by peak afternoon heating along much of the length of the dryline, and south of the front in northern OK/southern KS. NAM forecast soundings across these areas show steep mid-level lapse rates present, along with strong deep-layer shear that should be more than sufficient for supercells. The primary uncertainty remains timing of surface-based convective initiation, and overall coverage given that the ejection of the upper trough across the southern High Plains is forecast to occur mainly Thursday night into early Friday morning. Still, any supercells that can develop should pose a threat for large hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat is less clear, with modest low-level moisture a potentially limiting factor. Regardless, a Slight Risk has been maintained where confidence is highest that convection will eventually develop through Thursday night. A broader Marginal Risk is in place across southern KS into OK/TX and the ArkLaTex where some potential for severe hail may exist, even though thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain elevated. ..Gleason.. 03/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Thursday afternoon through Thursday night across parts of the southern Plains to the ArkLaTex vicinity. Large hail should be the main threat. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex... An upper trough/low initially centered over southern CA and northwest Mexico will traverse eastward across the Southwest and adjacent parts of northern Mexico on Thursday. Large-scale ascent preceding this upper trough will encourage lee cyclogenesis across the southern High Plains through Thursday evening. Modest low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 50s to low 60s, should advance northward through the day across parts of TX into OK along and east of a surface dryline. A front is also forecast to sharpen on the northern edge of appreciable low-level moisture return across northern OK and southern KS. Elevated thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of the southern/central Plains, with a generally low severe threat owing to weak MUCAPE forecast. There are still some differences in model guidance regarding the strength of the surface low across west TX, the placement of the dryline by late Thursday afternoon, and with the quality of low-level moisture return. Even with these continued uncertainties, weak to moderate instability should develop by peak afternoon heating along much of the length of the dryline, and south of the front in northern OK/southern KS. NAM forecast soundings across these areas show steep mid-level lapse rates present, along with strong deep-layer shear that should be more than sufficient for supercells. The primary uncertainty remains timing of surface-based convective initiation, and overall coverage given that the ejection of the upper trough across the southern High Plains is forecast to occur mainly Thursday night into early Friday morning. Still, any supercells that can develop should pose a threat for large hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat is less clear, with modest low-level moisture a potentially limiting factor. Regardless, a Slight Risk has been maintained where confidence is highest that convection will eventually develop through Thursday night. A broader Marginal Risk is in place across southern KS into OK/TX and the ArkLaTex where some potential for severe hail may exist, even though thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain elevated. ..Gleason.. 03/05/2024 Read more