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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Thursday - Southern Plains into the mid/upper Mississippi Valley... Extensive convection appears likely from the southern Plains northeastward into the mid/upper MS Valley on Thursday, as a relatively deep upper trough continues to impinge upon a broad and moist warm sector. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient to support organized convection, and pockets of severe potential are likely to evolve within this regime. However, most guidance suggests that one or more MCSs will be ongoing Thursday morning, with widespread cloudiness and precipitation possible across much of the warm sector. Storm redevelopment will be possible as a cold front moves into the region, but magnitude of instability and potential influence of convective outflow remain too uncertain to delineate a 15% area. ...D5/Friday into D8/Monday... Predictability regarding the synoptic pattern wanes rather quickly by the weekend. In general, a cold front is expected to move southeastward on D5/Friday and then stall from the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley. Rich low-level moisture will support daily destabilization along/south of the front. However, potential for either storm development across TX or for moisture/instability to be drawn northward into a larger portion of the Plains remains quite uncertain into early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Thursday - Southern Plains into the mid/upper Mississippi Valley... Extensive convection appears likely from the southern Plains northeastward into the mid/upper MS Valley on Thursday, as a relatively deep upper trough continues to impinge upon a broad and moist warm sector. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient to support organized convection, and pockets of severe potential are likely to evolve within this regime. However, most guidance suggests that one or more MCSs will be ongoing Thursday morning, with widespread cloudiness and precipitation possible across much of the warm sector. Storm redevelopment will be possible as a cold front moves into the region, but magnitude of instability and potential influence of convective outflow remain too uncertain to delineate a 15% area. ...D5/Friday into D8/Monday... Predictability regarding the synoptic pattern wanes rather quickly by the weekend. In general, a cold front is expected to move southeastward on D5/Friday and then stall from the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley. Rich low-level moisture will support daily destabilization along/south of the front. However, potential for either storm development across TX or for moisture/instability to be drawn northward into a larger portion of the Plains remains quite uncertain into early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Thursday - Southern Plains into the mid/upper Mississippi Valley... Extensive convection appears likely from the southern Plains northeastward into the mid/upper MS Valley on Thursday, as a relatively deep upper trough continues to impinge upon a broad and moist warm sector. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient to support organized convection, and pockets of severe potential are likely to evolve within this regime. However, most guidance suggests that one or more MCSs will be ongoing Thursday morning, with widespread cloudiness and precipitation possible across much of the warm sector. Storm redevelopment will be possible as a cold front moves into the region, but magnitude of instability and potential influence of convective outflow remain too uncertain to delineate a 15% area. ...D5/Friday into D8/Monday... Predictability regarding the synoptic pattern wanes rather quickly by the weekend. In general, a cold front is expected to move southeastward on D5/Friday and then stall from the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley. Rich low-level moisture will support daily destabilization along/south of the front. However, potential for either storm development across TX or for moisture/instability to be drawn northward into a larger portion of the Plains remains quite uncertain into early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Thursday - Southern Plains into the mid/upper Mississippi Valley... Extensive convection appears likely from the southern Plains northeastward into the mid/upper MS Valley on Thursday, as a relatively deep upper trough continues to impinge upon a broad and moist warm sector. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient to support organized convection, and pockets of severe potential are likely to evolve within this regime. However, most guidance suggests that one or more MCSs will be ongoing Thursday morning, with widespread cloudiness and precipitation possible across much of the warm sector. Storm redevelopment will be possible as a cold front moves into the region, but magnitude of instability and potential influence of convective outflow remain too uncertain to delineate a 15% area. ...D5/Friday into D8/Monday... Predictability regarding the synoptic pattern wanes rather quickly by the weekend. In general, a cold front is expected to move southeastward on D5/Friday and then stall from the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley. Rich low-level moisture will support daily destabilization along/south of the front. However, potential for either storm development across TX or for moisture/instability to be drawn northward into a larger portion of the Plains remains quite uncertain into early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Thursday - Southern Plains into the mid/upper Mississippi Valley... Extensive convection appears likely from the southern Plains northeastward into the mid/upper MS Valley on Thursday, as a relatively deep upper trough continues to impinge upon a broad and moist warm sector. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient to support organized convection, and pockets of severe potential are likely to evolve within this regime. However, most guidance suggests that one or more MCSs will be ongoing Thursday morning, with widespread cloudiness and precipitation possible across much of the warm sector. Storm redevelopment will be possible as a cold front moves into the region, but magnitude of instability and potential influence of convective outflow remain too uncertain to delineate a 15% area. ...D5/Friday into D8/Monday... Predictability regarding the synoptic pattern wanes rather quickly by the weekend. In general, a cold front is expected to move southeastward on D5/Friday and then stall from the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley. Rich low-level moisture will support daily destabilization along/south of the front. However, potential for either storm development across TX or for moisture/instability to be drawn northward into a larger portion of the Plains remains quite uncertain into early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Thursday - Southern Plains into the mid/upper Mississippi Valley... Extensive convection appears likely from the southern Plains northeastward into the mid/upper MS Valley on Thursday, as a relatively deep upper trough continues to impinge upon a broad and moist warm sector. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient to support organized convection, and pockets of severe potential are likely to evolve within this regime. However, most guidance suggests that one or more MCSs will be ongoing Thursday morning, with widespread cloudiness and precipitation possible across much of the warm sector. Storm redevelopment will be possible as a cold front moves into the region, but magnitude of instability and potential influence of convective outflow remain too uncertain to delineate a 15% area. ...D5/Friday into D8/Monday... Predictability regarding the synoptic pattern wanes rather quickly by the weekend. In general, a cold front is expected to move southeastward on D5/Friday and then stall from the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley. Rich low-level moisture will support daily destabilization along/south of the front. However, potential for either storm development across TX or for moisture/instability to be drawn northward into a larger portion of the Plains remains quite uncertain into early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Thursday - Southern Plains into the mid/upper Mississippi Valley... Extensive convection appears likely from the southern Plains northeastward into the mid/upper MS Valley on Thursday, as a relatively deep upper trough continues to impinge upon a broad and moist warm sector. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient to support organized convection, and pockets of severe potential are likely to evolve within this regime. However, most guidance suggests that one or more MCSs will be ongoing Thursday morning, with widespread cloudiness and precipitation possible across much of the warm sector. Storm redevelopment will be possible as a cold front moves into the region, but magnitude of instability and potential influence of convective outflow remain too uncertain to delineate a 15% area. ...D5/Friday into D8/Monday... Predictability regarding the synoptic pattern wanes rather quickly by the weekend. In general, a cold front is expected to move southeastward on D5/Friday and then stall from the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley. Rich low-level moisture will support daily destabilization along/south of the front. However, potential for either storm development across TX or for moisture/instability to be drawn northward into a larger portion of the Plains remains quite uncertain into early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Thursday - Southern Plains into the mid/upper Mississippi Valley... Extensive convection appears likely from the southern Plains northeastward into the mid/upper MS Valley on Thursday, as a relatively deep upper trough continues to impinge upon a broad and moist warm sector. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient to support organized convection, and pockets of severe potential are likely to evolve within this regime. However, most guidance suggests that one or more MCSs will be ongoing Thursday morning, with widespread cloudiness and precipitation possible across much of the warm sector. Storm redevelopment will be possible as a cold front moves into the region, but magnitude of instability and potential influence of convective outflow remain too uncertain to delineate a 15% area. ...D5/Friday into D8/Monday... Predictability regarding the synoptic pattern wanes rather quickly by the weekend. In general, a cold front is expected to move southeastward on D5/Friday and then stall from the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley. Rich low-level moisture will support daily destabilization along/south of the front. However, potential for either storm development across TX or for moisture/instability to be drawn northward into a larger portion of the Plains remains quite uncertain into early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Thursday - Southern Plains into the mid/upper Mississippi Valley... Extensive convection appears likely from the southern Plains northeastward into the mid/upper MS Valley on Thursday, as a relatively deep upper trough continues to impinge upon a broad and moist warm sector. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient to support organized convection, and pockets of severe potential are likely to evolve within this regime. However, most guidance suggests that one or more MCSs will be ongoing Thursday morning, with widespread cloudiness and precipitation possible across much of the warm sector. Storm redevelopment will be possible as a cold front moves into the region, but magnitude of instability and potential influence of convective outflow remain too uncertain to delineate a 15% area. ...D5/Friday into D8/Monday... Predictability regarding the synoptic pattern wanes rather quickly by the weekend. In general, a cold front is expected to move southeastward on D5/Friday and then stall from the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley. Rich low-level moisture will support daily destabilization along/south of the front. However, potential for either storm development across TX or for moisture/instability to be drawn northward into a larger portion of the Plains remains quite uncertain into early next week. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the central and southern Plains on Wednesday. A few tornadoes will be possible (including potential for a strong tornado), in addition to large to very large hail and damaging winds. ...Synopsis... In the wake of a strong shortwave trough moving toward the upper Great Lakes, a broad upper trough is forecast to move slowly eastward toward the central CONUS on Wednesday. A surface low is forecast to deepen across the south-central High Plains, with rich low-level moisture expected to stream northward across the warm sector. A dryline will extend south of the low during the afternoon, while a warm front will move northward toward the KS/NE border. Farther south, a secondary mid/upper-level jet maximum may overspread parts of west/southwest TX. ...Parts of the central/southern Plains... A favorable conditional environment for severe thunderstorms will likely develop across parts of the warm sector on Wednesday, and supercells capable of all severe hazards will be possible. Storm coverage and evolution remain uncertain, however. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 F) will support strong destabilization along/east of the dryline and south of the warm front by Wednesday afternoon. Mid/upper-level flow will remain relatively modest across most of the warm sector, but veering wind profiles will support effective shear generally above 40 kt, sufficient for supercell development in the presence of strong instability. The primary uncertainty is the coverage and location of storm diurnal storm development, with only subtle vorticity maxima expected to overspread the warm sector. However, at least isolated storm development will be possible near the dryline, with increasing storm coverage expected near the warm front by afternoon/evening. Any sustained supercells will pose a threat of very large hail and tornadoes, with a strong tornado possible as the low-level jet increases into the evening. MCS development will also be possible Wednesday evening near/north of the warm front, aided by a strong low-level jet. Farther south, the subtle subtropical shortwave trough could support a secondary maximum of storm coverage from southwest into central TX, though this scenario is more uncertain. The Marginal Risk has been expanded across much of TX, with some potential for initial isolated supercells to evolve into one or more storm clusters into Wednesday evening as they move eastward. ..Dean.. 04/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the central and southern Plains on Wednesday. A few tornadoes will be possible (including potential for a strong tornado), in addition to large to very large hail and damaging winds. ...Synopsis... In the wake of a strong shortwave trough moving toward the upper Great Lakes, a broad upper trough is forecast to move slowly eastward toward the central CONUS on Wednesday. A surface low is forecast to deepen across the south-central High Plains, with rich low-level moisture expected to stream northward across the warm sector. A dryline will extend south of the low during the afternoon, while a warm front will move northward toward the KS/NE border. Farther south, a secondary mid/upper-level jet maximum may overspread parts of west/southwest TX. ...Parts of the central/southern Plains... A favorable conditional environment for severe thunderstorms will likely develop across parts of the warm sector on Wednesday, and supercells capable of all severe hazards will be possible. Storm coverage and evolution remain uncertain, however. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 F) will support strong destabilization along/east of the dryline and south of the warm front by Wednesday afternoon. Mid/upper-level flow will remain relatively modest across most of the warm sector, but veering wind profiles will support effective shear generally above 40 kt, sufficient for supercell development in the presence of strong instability. The primary uncertainty is the coverage and location of storm diurnal storm development, with only subtle vorticity maxima expected to overspread the warm sector. However, at least isolated storm development will be possible near the dryline, with increasing storm coverage expected near the warm front by afternoon/evening. Any sustained supercells will pose a threat of very large hail and tornadoes, with a strong tornado possible as the low-level jet increases into the evening. MCS development will also be possible Wednesday evening near/north of the warm front, aided by a strong low-level jet. Farther south, the subtle subtropical shortwave trough could support a secondary maximum of storm coverage from southwest into central TX, though this scenario is more uncertain. The Marginal Risk has been expanded across much of TX, with some potential for initial isolated supercells to evolve into one or more storm clusters into Wednesday evening as they move eastward. ..Dean.. 04/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the central and southern Plains on Wednesday. A few tornadoes will be possible (including potential for a strong tornado), in addition to large to very large hail and damaging winds. ...Synopsis... In the wake of a strong shortwave trough moving toward the upper Great Lakes, a broad upper trough is forecast to move slowly eastward toward the central CONUS on Wednesday. A surface low is forecast to deepen across the south-central High Plains, with rich low-level moisture expected to stream northward across the warm sector. A dryline will extend south of the low during the afternoon, while a warm front will move northward toward the KS/NE border. Farther south, a secondary mid/upper-level jet maximum may overspread parts of west/southwest TX. ...Parts of the central/southern Plains... A favorable conditional environment for severe thunderstorms will likely develop across parts of the warm sector on Wednesday, and supercells capable of all severe hazards will be possible. Storm coverage and evolution remain uncertain, however. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 F) will support strong destabilization along/east of the dryline and south of the warm front by Wednesday afternoon. Mid/upper-level flow will remain relatively modest across most of the warm sector, but veering wind profiles will support effective shear generally above 40 kt, sufficient for supercell development in the presence of strong instability. The primary uncertainty is the coverage and location of storm diurnal storm development, with only subtle vorticity maxima expected to overspread the warm sector. However, at least isolated storm development will be possible near the dryline, with increasing storm coverage expected near the warm front by afternoon/evening. Any sustained supercells will pose a threat of very large hail and tornadoes, with a strong tornado possible as the low-level jet increases into the evening. MCS development will also be possible Wednesday evening near/north of the warm front, aided by a strong low-level jet. Farther south, the subtle subtropical shortwave trough could support a secondary maximum of storm coverage from southwest into central TX, though this scenario is more uncertain. The Marginal Risk has been expanded across much of TX, with some potential for initial isolated supercells to evolve into one or more storm clusters into Wednesday evening as they move eastward. ..Dean.. 04/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the central and southern Plains on Wednesday. A few tornadoes will be possible (including potential for a strong tornado), in addition to large to very large hail and damaging winds. ...Synopsis... In the wake of a strong shortwave trough moving toward the upper Great Lakes, a broad upper trough is forecast to move slowly eastward toward the central CONUS on Wednesday. A surface low is forecast to deepen across the south-central High Plains, with rich low-level moisture expected to stream northward across the warm sector. A dryline will extend south of the low during the afternoon, while a warm front will move northward toward the KS/NE border. Farther south, a secondary mid/upper-level jet maximum may overspread parts of west/southwest TX. ...Parts of the central/southern Plains... A favorable conditional environment for severe thunderstorms will likely develop across parts of the warm sector on Wednesday, and supercells capable of all severe hazards will be possible. Storm coverage and evolution remain uncertain, however. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 F) will support strong destabilization along/east of the dryline and south of the warm front by Wednesday afternoon. Mid/upper-level flow will remain relatively modest across most of the warm sector, but veering wind profiles will support effective shear generally above 40 kt, sufficient for supercell development in the presence of strong instability. The primary uncertainty is the coverage and location of storm diurnal storm development, with only subtle vorticity maxima expected to overspread the warm sector. However, at least isolated storm development will be possible near the dryline, with increasing storm coverage expected near the warm front by afternoon/evening. Any sustained supercells will pose a threat of very large hail and tornadoes, with a strong tornado possible as the low-level jet increases into the evening. MCS development will also be possible Wednesday evening near/north of the warm front, aided by a strong low-level jet. Farther south, the subtle subtropical shortwave trough could support a secondary maximum of storm coverage from southwest into central TX, though this scenario is more uncertain. The Marginal Risk has been expanded across much of TX, with some potential for initial isolated supercells to evolve into one or more storm clusters into Wednesday evening as they move eastward. ..Dean.. 04/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the central and southern Plains on Wednesday. A few tornadoes will be possible (including potential for a strong tornado), in addition to large to very large hail and damaging winds. ...Synopsis... In the wake of a strong shortwave trough moving toward the upper Great Lakes, a broad upper trough is forecast to move slowly eastward toward the central CONUS on Wednesday. A surface low is forecast to deepen across the south-central High Plains, with rich low-level moisture expected to stream northward across the warm sector. A dryline will extend south of the low during the afternoon, while a warm front will move northward toward the KS/NE border. Farther south, a secondary mid/upper-level jet maximum may overspread parts of west/southwest TX. ...Parts of the central/southern Plains... A favorable conditional environment for severe thunderstorms will likely develop across parts of the warm sector on Wednesday, and supercells capable of all severe hazards will be possible. Storm coverage and evolution remain uncertain, however. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 F) will support strong destabilization along/east of the dryline and south of the warm front by Wednesday afternoon. Mid/upper-level flow will remain relatively modest across most of the warm sector, but veering wind profiles will support effective shear generally above 40 kt, sufficient for supercell development in the presence of strong instability. The primary uncertainty is the coverage and location of storm diurnal storm development, with only subtle vorticity maxima expected to overspread the warm sector. However, at least isolated storm development will be possible near the dryline, with increasing storm coverage expected near the warm front by afternoon/evening. Any sustained supercells will pose a threat of very large hail and tornadoes, with a strong tornado possible as the low-level jet increases into the evening. MCS development will also be possible Wednesday evening near/north of the warm front, aided by a strong low-level jet. Farther south, the subtle subtropical shortwave trough could support a secondary maximum of storm coverage from southwest into central TX, though this scenario is more uncertain. The Marginal Risk has been expanded across much of TX, with some potential for initial isolated supercells to evolve into one or more storm clusters into Wednesday evening as they move eastward. ..Dean.. 04/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the central and southern Plains on Wednesday. A few tornadoes will be possible (including potential for a strong tornado), in addition to large to very large hail and damaging winds. ...Synopsis... In the wake of a strong shortwave trough moving toward the upper Great Lakes, a broad upper trough is forecast to move slowly eastward toward the central CONUS on Wednesday. A surface low is forecast to deepen across the south-central High Plains, with rich low-level moisture expected to stream northward across the warm sector. A dryline will extend south of the low during the afternoon, while a warm front will move northward toward the KS/NE border. Farther south, a secondary mid/upper-level jet maximum may overspread parts of west/southwest TX. ...Parts of the central/southern Plains... A favorable conditional environment for severe thunderstorms will likely develop across parts of the warm sector on Wednesday, and supercells capable of all severe hazards will be possible. Storm coverage and evolution remain uncertain, however. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 F) will support strong destabilization along/east of the dryline and south of the warm front by Wednesday afternoon. Mid/upper-level flow will remain relatively modest across most of the warm sector, but veering wind profiles will support effective shear generally above 40 kt, sufficient for supercell development in the presence of strong instability. The primary uncertainty is the coverage and location of storm diurnal storm development, with only subtle vorticity maxima expected to overspread the warm sector. However, at least isolated storm development will be possible near the dryline, with increasing storm coverage expected near the warm front by afternoon/evening. Any sustained supercells will pose a threat of very large hail and tornadoes, with a strong tornado possible as the low-level jet increases into the evening. MCS development will also be possible Wednesday evening near/north of the warm front, aided by a strong low-level jet. Farther south, the subtle subtropical shortwave trough could support a secondary maximum of storm coverage from southwest into central TX, though this scenario is more uncertain. The Marginal Risk has been expanded across much of TX, with some potential for initial isolated supercells to evolve into one or more storm clusters into Wednesday evening as they move eastward. ..Dean.. 04/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the central and southern Plains on Wednesday. A few tornadoes will be possible (including potential for a strong tornado), in addition to large to very large hail and damaging winds. ...Synopsis... In the wake of a strong shortwave trough moving toward the upper Great Lakes, a broad upper trough is forecast to move slowly eastward toward the central CONUS on Wednesday. A surface low is forecast to deepen across the south-central High Plains, with rich low-level moisture expected to stream northward across the warm sector. A dryline will extend south of the low during the afternoon, while a warm front will move northward toward the KS/NE border. Farther south, a secondary mid/upper-level jet maximum may overspread parts of west/southwest TX. ...Parts of the central/southern Plains... A favorable conditional environment for severe thunderstorms will likely develop across parts of the warm sector on Wednesday, and supercells capable of all severe hazards will be possible. Storm coverage and evolution remain uncertain, however. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 F) will support strong destabilization along/east of the dryline and south of the warm front by Wednesday afternoon. Mid/upper-level flow will remain relatively modest across most of the warm sector, but veering wind profiles will support effective shear generally above 40 kt, sufficient for supercell development in the presence of strong instability. The primary uncertainty is the coverage and location of storm diurnal storm development, with only subtle vorticity maxima expected to overspread the warm sector. However, at least isolated storm development will be possible near the dryline, with increasing storm coverage expected near the warm front by afternoon/evening. Any sustained supercells will pose a threat of very large hail and tornadoes, with a strong tornado possible as the low-level jet increases into the evening. MCS development will also be possible Wednesday evening near/north of the warm front, aided by a strong low-level jet. Farther south, the subtle subtropical shortwave trough could support a secondary maximum of storm coverage from southwest into central TX, though this scenario is more uncertain. The Marginal Risk has been expanded across much of TX, with some potential for initial isolated supercells to evolve into one or more storm clusters into Wednesday evening as they move eastward. ..Dean.. 04/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the central and southern Plains on Wednesday. A few tornadoes will be possible (including potential for a strong tornado), in addition to large to very large hail and damaging winds. ...Synopsis... In the wake of a strong shortwave trough moving toward the upper Great Lakes, a broad upper trough is forecast to move slowly eastward toward the central CONUS on Wednesday. A surface low is forecast to deepen across the south-central High Plains, with rich low-level moisture expected to stream northward across the warm sector. A dryline will extend south of the low during the afternoon, while a warm front will move northward toward the KS/NE border. Farther south, a secondary mid/upper-level jet maximum may overspread parts of west/southwest TX. ...Parts of the central/southern Plains... A favorable conditional environment for severe thunderstorms will likely develop across parts of the warm sector on Wednesday, and supercells capable of all severe hazards will be possible. Storm coverage and evolution remain uncertain, however. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 F) will support strong destabilization along/east of the dryline and south of the warm front by Wednesday afternoon. Mid/upper-level flow will remain relatively modest across most of the warm sector, but veering wind profiles will support effective shear generally above 40 kt, sufficient for supercell development in the presence of strong instability. The primary uncertainty is the coverage and location of storm diurnal storm development, with only subtle vorticity maxima expected to overspread the warm sector. However, at least isolated storm development will be possible near the dryline, with increasing storm coverage expected near the warm front by afternoon/evening. Any sustained supercells will pose a threat of very large hail and tornadoes, with a strong tornado possible as the low-level jet increases into the evening. MCS development will also be possible Wednesday evening near/north of the warm front, aided by a strong low-level jet. Farther south, the subtle subtropical shortwave trough could support a secondary maximum of storm coverage from southwest into central TX, though this scenario is more uncertain. The Marginal Risk has been expanded across much of TX, with some potential for initial isolated supercells to evolve into one or more storm clusters into Wednesday evening as they move eastward. ..Dean.. 04/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the central and southern Plains on Wednesday. A few tornadoes will be possible (including potential for a strong tornado), in addition to large to very large hail and damaging winds. ...Synopsis... In the wake of a strong shortwave trough moving toward the upper Great Lakes, a broad upper trough is forecast to move slowly eastward toward the central CONUS on Wednesday. A surface low is forecast to deepen across the south-central High Plains, with rich low-level moisture expected to stream northward across the warm sector. A dryline will extend south of the low during the afternoon, while a warm front will move northward toward the KS/NE border. Farther south, a secondary mid/upper-level jet maximum may overspread parts of west/southwest TX. ...Parts of the central/southern Plains... A favorable conditional environment for severe thunderstorms will likely develop across parts of the warm sector on Wednesday, and supercells capable of all severe hazards will be possible. Storm coverage and evolution remain uncertain, however. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 F) will support strong destabilization along/east of the dryline and south of the warm front by Wednesday afternoon. Mid/upper-level flow will remain relatively modest across most of the warm sector, but veering wind profiles will support effective shear generally above 40 kt, sufficient for supercell development in the presence of strong instability. The primary uncertainty is the coverage and location of storm diurnal storm development, with only subtle vorticity maxima expected to overspread the warm sector. However, at least isolated storm development will be possible near the dryline, with increasing storm coverage expected near the warm front by afternoon/evening. Any sustained supercells will pose a threat of very large hail and tornadoes, with a strong tornado possible as the low-level jet increases into the evening. MCS development will also be possible Wednesday evening near/north of the warm front, aided by a strong low-level jet. Farther south, the subtle subtropical shortwave trough could support a secondary maximum of storm coverage from southwest into central TX, though this scenario is more uncertain. The Marginal Risk has been expanded across much of TX, with some potential for initial isolated supercells to evolve into one or more storm clusters into Wednesday evening as they move eastward. ..Dean.. 04/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the central and southern Plains on Wednesday. A few tornadoes will be possible (including potential for a strong tornado), in addition to large to very large hail and damaging winds. ...Synopsis... In the wake of a strong shortwave trough moving toward the upper Great Lakes, a broad upper trough is forecast to move slowly eastward toward the central CONUS on Wednesday. A surface low is forecast to deepen across the south-central High Plains, with rich low-level moisture expected to stream northward across the warm sector. A dryline will extend south of the low during the afternoon, while a warm front will move northward toward the KS/NE border. Farther south, a secondary mid/upper-level jet maximum may overspread parts of west/southwest TX. ...Parts of the central/southern Plains... A favorable conditional environment for severe thunderstorms will likely develop across parts of the warm sector on Wednesday, and supercells capable of all severe hazards will be possible. Storm coverage and evolution remain uncertain, however. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 F) will support strong destabilization along/east of the dryline and south of the warm front by Wednesday afternoon. Mid/upper-level flow will remain relatively modest across most of the warm sector, but veering wind profiles will support effective shear generally above 40 kt, sufficient for supercell development in the presence of strong instability. The primary uncertainty is the coverage and location of storm diurnal storm development, with only subtle vorticity maxima expected to overspread the warm sector. However, at least isolated storm development will be possible near the dryline, with increasing storm coverage expected near the warm front by afternoon/evening. Any sustained supercells will pose a threat of very large hail and tornadoes, with a strong tornado possible as the low-level jet increases into the evening. MCS development will also be possible Wednesday evening near/north of the warm front, aided by a strong low-level jet. Farther south, the subtle subtropical shortwave trough could support a secondary maximum of storm coverage from southwest into central TX, though this scenario is more uncertain. The Marginal Risk has been expanded across much of TX, with some potential for initial isolated supercells to evolve into one or more storm clusters into Wednesday evening as they move eastward. ..Dean.. 04/29/2024 Read more

MD 0570 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LA
Mesoscale Discussion 0570 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Areas affected...portions of central/southern LA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 290622Z - 290715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A severe threat may persist through the overnight hours. Damaging gusts and a tornado will be the main concern with this activity. A new watch will be needed by 07z. DISCUSSION...A mature MCS over central LA into southeast TX will continue to develop east/southeast overnight. A 06z RAOB from LCH shows a modestly unstable airmass with near 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. A deep saturated layer from the surface to around 700 mb will preclude steep low-level lapse rates and limit cold pool strength. This will likely limit a more widespread damaging wind risk. Nevertheless, favorable vertical shear and sufficient instability will support a continued risk for at least sporadic, locally strong to severe gusts of 45-60 mph. Nearer to the coast where dewpoints are in the low 70s, vertically veering low-level winds with somewhat enlarged low-level hodographs may support some brief tornado potential. But strong gusts are expected to largely be the main concern through early morning. ..Leitman/Thompson.. 04/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 31079456 31969269 31809199 31479158 30599151 30309154 29679182 29429242 29509327 29709380 29909417 30479476 30819492 31079456 Read more