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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplifying large-scale trough over the western CONUS, strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains. In response, a lee surface cyclone will deepen in the vicinity of the TX/OK Panhandles, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over West TX. ...Southern High Plains... West of the dryline, strong downslope warming/drying will contribute to a deeply mixed boundary layer, extending up to around 4.5 km AGL across portions of eastern NM and West TX -- despite increasing mid/high-level clouds ahead of the large-scale trough. This will support an expansive area of 12-15 percent minimum RH and temperatures in the lower 70s across the area. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the lee cyclone, coupled with strong winds through the deepening boundary layer, will favor 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 35 mph). Given receptive fuels over the southern High Plains (80th+ percentile ERCs), critical fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of eastern NM and West TX. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplifying large-scale trough over the western CONUS, strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains. In response, a lee surface cyclone will deepen in the vicinity of the TX/OK Panhandles, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over West TX. ...Southern High Plains... West of the dryline, strong downslope warming/drying will contribute to a deeply mixed boundary layer, extending up to around 4.5 km AGL across portions of eastern NM and West TX -- despite increasing mid/high-level clouds ahead of the large-scale trough. This will support an expansive area of 12-15 percent minimum RH and temperatures in the lower 70s across the area. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the lee cyclone, coupled with strong winds through the deepening boundary layer, will favor 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 35 mph). Given receptive fuels over the southern High Plains (80th+ percentile ERCs), critical fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of eastern NM and West TX. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplifying large-scale trough over the western CONUS, strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains. In response, a lee surface cyclone will deepen in the vicinity of the TX/OK Panhandles, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over West TX. ...Southern High Plains... West of the dryline, strong downslope warming/drying will contribute to a deeply mixed boundary layer, extending up to around 4.5 km AGL across portions of eastern NM and West TX -- despite increasing mid/high-level clouds ahead of the large-scale trough. This will support an expansive area of 12-15 percent minimum RH and temperatures in the lower 70s across the area. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the lee cyclone, coupled with strong winds through the deepening boundary layer, will favor 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 35 mph). Given receptive fuels over the southern High Plains (80th+ percentile ERCs), critical fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of eastern NM and West TX. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplifying large-scale trough over the western CONUS, strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains. In response, a lee surface cyclone will deepen in the vicinity of the TX/OK Panhandles, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over West TX. ...Southern High Plains... West of the dryline, strong downslope warming/drying will contribute to a deeply mixed boundary layer, extending up to around 4.5 km AGL across portions of eastern NM and West TX -- despite increasing mid/high-level clouds ahead of the large-scale trough. This will support an expansive area of 12-15 percent minimum RH and temperatures in the lower 70s across the area. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the lee cyclone, coupled with strong winds through the deepening boundary layer, will favor 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 35 mph). Given receptive fuels over the southern High Plains (80th+ percentile ERCs), critical fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of eastern NM and West TX. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplifying large-scale trough over the western CONUS, strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains. In response, a lee surface cyclone will deepen in the vicinity of the TX/OK Panhandles, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over West TX. ...Southern High Plains... West of the dryline, strong downslope warming/drying will contribute to a deeply mixed boundary layer, extending up to around 4.5 km AGL across portions of eastern NM and West TX -- despite increasing mid/high-level clouds ahead of the large-scale trough. This will support an expansive area of 12-15 percent minimum RH and temperatures in the lower 70s across the area. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the lee cyclone, coupled with strong winds through the deepening boundary layer, will favor 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 35 mph). Given receptive fuels over the southern High Plains (80th+ percentile ERCs), critical fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of eastern NM and West TX. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplifying large-scale trough over the western CONUS, strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains. In response, a lee surface cyclone will deepen in the vicinity of the TX/OK Panhandles, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over West TX. ...Southern High Plains... West of the dryline, strong downslope warming/drying will contribute to a deeply mixed boundary layer, extending up to around 4.5 km AGL across portions of eastern NM and West TX -- despite increasing mid/high-level clouds ahead of the large-scale trough. This will support an expansive area of 12-15 percent minimum RH and temperatures in the lower 70s across the area. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the lee cyclone, coupled with strong winds through the deepening boundary layer, will favor 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 35 mph). Given receptive fuels over the southern High Plains (80th+ percentile ERCs), critical fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of eastern NM and West TX. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across a portion of the southern Great Plains. Large hail should be the primary hazard. ...Synopsis... A series of lower-amplitude shortwave impulses will eject into/through the basal portion of a broad upper trough across the Southwest. The bulk of fast mid-level westerlies will largely be confined across north Mexico, but will overspread parts of south TX by early Friday in association with a leading shortwave impulse. A lee surface cyclone will diurnally deepen across the TX Panhandle with a Pacific cold front overtaking the dryline late in west TX. To the northeast of the surface low, an initially quasi-stationary front should accelerate southeastward early Friday. ...Southern KS to central TX... Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of north TX towards the Ozark Plateau. This convection will be tied to low-level warm theta-e advection attendant to a southerly low-level jet. With generally weak MUCAPE, small to marginally severe hail may occur with the more robust cores. This convection should linger through most of the day across north TX with regeneration occurring on the west side of the broader convective swath, along the eastern periphery of the steep mid-level lapse rate plume. The degree of boundary-layer moistening to the west/northwest of this activity will likely be tempered into the afternoon. Guidance depicts relatively large spread for a D2 forecast with regard to the northwest spatial extent of the modified moisture return and the overall degree of buoyancy is questionable. Still, with robust boundary-layer heating west of the dryline, the triple-point region near the surface cyclone across the far eastern TX Panhandle into northwest OK should be a favored corridor for evening large hail potential. Within the downstream warm conveyor, at least elevated convection will be likely near/north of the quasi-stationary front into south-central KS. A severe hail threat should extend here given the feed of very steep mid-level lapse rates upstream. Farther south from western to north TX into the Edwards Plateau, convective development should be tied to mid-level height falls and increasing low-level convergence as the Pacific front impinges on the dryline on Thursday night. This should favor modest upscale growth into multiple clusters with embedded transient supercells capable of producing sporadic severe hail and locally strong to severe wind gusts. There is below-average confidence in whether a greater than marginal severe threat will spread into the I-35 corridor/Metroplex vicinity before 12Z Fri. ..Grams.. 03/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across a portion of the southern Great Plains. Large hail should be the primary hazard. ...Synopsis... A series of lower-amplitude shortwave impulses will eject into/through the basal portion of a broad upper trough across the Southwest. The bulk of fast mid-level westerlies will largely be confined across north Mexico, but will overspread parts of south TX by early Friday in association with a leading shortwave impulse. A lee surface cyclone will diurnally deepen across the TX Panhandle with a Pacific cold front overtaking the dryline late in west TX. To the northeast of the surface low, an initially quasi-stationary front should accelerate southeastward early Friday. ...Southern KS to central TX... Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of north TX towards the Ozark Plateau. This convection will be tied to low-level warm theta-e advection attendant to a southerly low-level jet. With generally weak MUCAPE, small to marginally severe hail may occur with the more robust cores. This convection should linger through most of the day across north TX with regeneration occurring on the west side of the broader convective swath, along the eastern periphery of the steep mid-level lapse rate plume. The degree of boundary-layer moistening to the west/northwest of this activity will likely be tempered into the afternoon. Guidance depicts relatively large spread for a D2 forecast with regard to the northwest spatial extent of the modified moisture return and the overall degree of buoyancy is questionable. Still, with robust boundary-layer heating west of the dryline, the triple-point region near the surface cyclone across the far eastern TX Panhandle into northwest OK should be a favored corridor for evening large hail potential. Within the downstream warm conveyor, at least elevated convection will be likely near/north of the quasi-stationary front into south-central KS. A severe hail threat should extend here given the feed of very steep mid-level lapse rates upstream. Farther south from western to north TX into the Edwards Plateau, convective development should be tied to mid-level height falls and increasing low-level convergence as the Pacific front impinges on the dryline on Thursday night. This should favor modest upscale growth into multiple clusters with embedded transient supercells capable of producing sporadic severe hail and locally strong to severe wind gusts. There is below-average confidence in whether a greater than marginal severe threat will spread into the I-35 corridor/Metroplex vicinity before 12Z Fri. ..Grams.. 03/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across a portion of the southern Great Plains. Large hail should be the primary hazard. ...Synopsis... A series of lower-amplitude shortwave impulses will eject into/through the basal portion of a broad upper trough across the Southwest. The bulk of fast mid-level westerlies will largely be confined across north Mexico, but will overspread parts of south TX by early Friday in association with a leading shortwave impulse. A lee surface cyclone will diurnally deepen across the TX Panhandle with a Pacific cold front overtaking the dryline late in west TX. To the northeast of the surface low, an initially quasi-stationary front should accelerate southeastward early Friday. ...Southern KS to central TX... Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of north TX towards the Ozark Plateau. This convection will be tied to low-level warm theta-e advection attendant to a southerly low-level jet. With generally weak MUCAPE, small to marginally severe hail may occur with the more robust cores. This convection should linger through most of the day across north TX with regeneration occurring on the west side of the broader convective swath, along the eastern periphery of the steep mid-level lapse rate plume. The degree of boundary-layer moistening to the west/northwest of this activity will likely be tempered into the afternoon. Guidance depicts relatively large spread for a D2 forecast with regard to the northwest spatial extent of the modified moisture return and the overall degree of buoyancy is questionable. Still, with robust boundary-layer heating west of the dryline, the triple-point region near the surface cyclone across the far eastern TX Panhandle into northwest OK should be a favored corridor for evening large hail potential. Within the downstream warm conveyor, at least elevated convection will be likely near/north of the quasi-stationary front into south-central KS. A severe hail threat should extend here given the feed of very steep mid-level lapse rates upstream. Farther south from western to north TX into the Edwards Plateau, convective development should be tied to mid-level height falls and increasing low-level convergence as the Pacific front impinges on the dryline on Thursday night. This should favor modest upscale growth into multiple clusters with embedded transient supercells capable of producing sporadic severe hail and locally strong to severe wind gusts. There is below-average confidence in whether a greater than marginal severe threat will spread into the I-35 corridor/Metroplex vicinity before 12Z Fri. ..Grams.. 03/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across a portion of the southern Great Plains. Large hail should be the primary hazard. ...Synopsis... A series of lower-amplitude shortwave impulses will eject into/through the basal portion of a broad upper trough across the Southwest. The bulk of fast mid-level westerlies will largely be confined across north Mexico, but will overspread parts of south TX by early Friday in association with a leading shortwave impulse. A lee surface cyclone will diurnally deepen across the TX Panhandle with a Pacific cold front overtaking the dryline late in west TX. To the northeast of the surface low, an initially quasi-stationary front should accelerate southeastward early Friday. ...Southern KS to central TX... Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of north TX towards the Ozark Plateau. This convection will be tied to low-level warm theta-e advection attendant to a southerly low-level jet. With generally weak MUCAPE, small to marginally severe hail may occur with the more robust cores. This convection should linger through most of the day across north TX with regeneration occurring on the west side of the broader convective swath, along the eastern periphery of the steep mid-level lapse rate plume. The degree of boundary-layer moistening to the west/northwest of this activity will likely be tempered into the afternoon. Guidance depicts relatively large spread for a D2 forecast with regard to the northwest spatial extent of the modified moisture return and the overall degree of buoyancy is questionable. Still, with robust boundary-layer heating west of the dryline, the triple-point region near the surface cyclone across the far eastern TX Panhandle into northwest OK should be a favored corridor for evening large hail potential. Within the downstream warm conveyor, at least elevated convection will be likely near/north of the quasi-stationary front into south-central KS. A severe hail threat should extend here given the feed of very steep mid-level lapse rates upstream. Farther south from western to north TX into the Edwards Plateau, convective development should be tied to mid-level height falls and increasing low-level convergence as the Pacific front impinges on the dryline on Thursday night. This should favor modest upscale growth into multiple clusters with embedded transient supercells capable of producing sporadic severe hail and locally strong to severe wind gusts. There is below-average confidence in whether a greater than marginal severe threat will spread into the I-35 corridor/Metroplex vicinity before 12Z Fri. ..Grams.. 03/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across a portion of the southern Great Plains. Large hail should be the primary hazard. ...Synopsis... A series of lower-amplitude shortwave impulses will eject into/through the basal portion of a broad upper trough across the Southwest. The bulk of fast mid-level westerlies will largely be confined across north Mexico, but will overspread parts of south TX by early Friday in association with a leading shortwave impulse. A lee surface cyclone will diurnally deepen across the TX Panhandle with a Pacific cold front overtaking the dryline late in west TX. To the northeast of the surface low, an initially quasi-stationary front should accelerate southeastward early Friday. ...Southern KS to central TX... Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of north TX towards the Ozark Plateau. This convection will be tied to low-level warm theta-e advection attendant to a southerly low-level jet. With generally weak MUCAPE, small to marginally severe hail may occur with the more robust cores. This convection should linger through most of the day across north TX with regeneration occurring on the west side of the broader convective swath, along the eastern periphery of the steep mid-level lapse rate plume. The degree of boundary-layer moistening to the west/northwest of this activity will likely be tempered into the afternoon. Guidance depicts relatively large spread for a D2 forecast with regard to the northwest spatial extent of the modified moisture return and the overall degree of buoyancy is questionable. Still, with robust boundary-layer heating west of the dryline, the triple-point region near the surface cyclone across the far eastern TX Panhandle into northwest OK should be a favored corridor for evening large hail potential. Within the downstream warm conveyor, at least elevated convection will be likely near/north of the quasi-stationary front into south-central KS. A severe hail threat should extend here given the feed of very steep mid-level lapse rates upstream. Farther south from western to north TX into the Edwards Plateau, convective development should be tied to mid-level height falls and increasing low-level convergence as the Pacific front impinges on the dryline on Thursday night. This should favor modest upscale growth into multiple clusters with embedded transient supercells capable of producing sporadic severe hail and locally strong to severe wind gusts. There is below-average confidence in whether a greater than marginal severe threat will spread into the I-35 corridor/Metroplex vicinity before 12Z Fri. ..Grams.. 03/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across a portion of the southern Great Plains. Large hail should be the primary hazard. ...Synopsis... A series of lower-amplitude shortwave impulses will eject into/through the basal portion of a broad upper trough across the Southwest. The bulk of fast mid-level westerlies will largely be confined across north Mexico, but will overspread parts of south TX by early Friday in association with a leading shortwave impulse. A lee surface cyclone will diurnally deepen across the TX Panhandle with a Pacific cold front overtaking the dryline late in west TX. To the northeast of the surface low, an initially quasi-stationary front should accelerate southeastward early Friday. ...Southern KS to central TX... Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of north TX towards the Ozark Plateau. This convection will be tied to low-level warm theta-e advection attendant to a southerly low-level jet. With generally weak MUCAPE, small to marginally severe hail may occur with the more robust cores. This convection should linger through most of the day across north TX with regeneration occurring on the west side of the broader convective swath, along the eastern periphery of the steep mid-level lapse rate plume. The degree of boundary-layer moistening to the west/northwest of this activity will likely be tempered into the afternoon. Guidance depicts relatively large spread for a D2 forecast with regard to the northwest spatial extent of the modified moisture return and the overall degree of buoyancy is questionable. Still, with robust boundary-layer heating west of the dryline, the triple-point region near the surface cyclone across the far eastern TX Panhandle into northwest OK should be a favored corridor for evening large hail potential. Within the downstream warm conveyor, at least elevated convection will be likely near/north of the quasi-stationary front into south-central KS. A severe hail threat should extend here given the feed of very steep mid-level lapse rates upstream. Farther south from western to north TX into the Edwards Plateau, convective development should be tied to mid-level height falls and increasing low-level convergence as the Pacific front impinges on the dryline on Thursday night. This should favor modest upscale growth into multiple clusters with embedded transient supercells capable of producing sporadic severe hail and locally strong to severe wind gusts. There is below-average confidence in whether a greater than marginal severe threat will spread into the I-35 corridor/Metroplex vicinity before 12Z Fri. ..Grams.. 03/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across a portion of the southern Great Plains. Large hail should be the primary hazard. ...Synopsis... A series of lower-amplitude shortwave impulses will eject into/through the basal portion of a broad upper trough across the Southwest. The bulk of fast mid-level westerlies will largely be confined across north Mexico, but will overspread parts of south TX by early Friday in association with a leading shortwave impulse. A lee surface cyclone will diurnally deepen across the TX Panhandle with a Pacific cold front overtaking the dryline late in west TX. To the northeast of the surface low, an initially quasi-stationary front should accelerate southeastward early Friday. ...Southern KS to central TX... Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of north TX towards the Ozark Plateau. This convection will be tied to low-level warm theta-e advection attendant to a southerly low-level jet. With generally weak MUCAPE, small to marginally severe hail may occur with the more robust cores. This convection should linger through most of the day across north TX with regeneration occurring on the west side of the broader convective swath, along the eastern periphery of the steep mid-level lapse rate plume. The degree of boundary-layer moistening to the west/northwest of this activity will likely be tempered into the afternoon. Guidance depicts relatively large spread for a D2 forecast with regard to the northwest spatial extent of the modified moisture return and the overall degree of buoyancy is questionable. Still, with robust boundary-layer heating west of the dryline, the triple-point region near the surface cyclone across the far eastern TX Panhandle into northwest OK should be a favored corridor for evening large hail potential. Within the downstream warm conveyor, at least elevated convection will be likely near/north of the quasi-stationary front into south-central KS. A severe hail threat should extend here given the feed of very steep mid-level lapse rates upstream. Farther south from western to north TX into the Edwards Plateau, convective development should be tied to mid-level height falls and increasing low-level convergence as the Pacific front impinges on the dryline on Thursday night. This should favor modest upscale growth into multiple clusters with embedded transient supercells capable of producing sporadic severe hail and locally strong to severe wind gusts. There is below-average confidence in whether a greater than marginal severe threat will spread into the I-35 corridor/Metroplex vicinity before 12Z Fri. ..Grams.. 03/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across a portion of the southern Great Plains. Large hail should be the primary hazard. ...Synopsis... A series of lower-amplitude shortwave impulses will eject into/through the basal portion of a broad upper trough across the Southwest. The bulk of fast mid-level westerlies will largely be confined across north Mexico, but will overspread parts of south TX by early Friday in association with a leading shortwave impulse. A lee surface cyclone will diurnally deepen across the TX Panhandle with a Pacific cold front overtaking the dryline late in west TX. To the northeast of the surface low, an initially quasi-stationary front should accelerate southeastward early Friday. ...Southern KS to central TX... Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of north TX towards the Ozark Plateau. This convection will be tied to low-level warm theta-e advection attendant to a southerly low-level jet. With generally weak MUCAPE, small to marginally severe hail may occur with the more robust cores. This convection should linger through most of the day across north TX with regeneration occurring on the west side of the broader convective swath, along the eastern periphery of the steep mid-level lapse rate plume. The degree of boundary-layer moistening to the west/northwest of this activity will likely be tempered into the afternoon. Guidance depicts relatively large spread for a D2 forecast with regard to the northwest spatial extent of the modified moisture return and the overall degree of buoyancy is questionable. Still, with robust boundary-layer heating west of the dryline, the triple-point region near the surface cyclone across the far eastern TX Panhandle into northwest OK should be a favored corridor for evening large hail potential. Within the downstream warm conveyor, at least elevated convection will be likely near/north of the quasi-stationary front into south-central KS. A severe hail threat should extend here given the feed of very steep mid-level lapse rates upstream. Farther south from western to north TX into the Edwards Plateau, convective development should be tied to mid-level height falls and increasing low-level convergence as the Pacific front impinges on the dryline on Thursday night. This should favor modest upscale growth into multiple clusters with embedded transient supercells capable of producing sporadic severe hail and locally strong to severe wind gusts. There is below-average confidence in whether a greater than marginal severe threat will spread into the I-35 corridor/Metroplex vicinity before 12Z Fri. ..Grams.. 03/06/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z The previous forecast remains largely on track. The only appreciable change made to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook was to expand Elevated highlights eastward into central Minnesota and northern Iowa. Here, the latest guidance consensus shows 25-30 percent RH coinciding with 15-20 mph sustained southerly surface winds for at least a few hours this afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... A northern-stream midlevel shortwave trough will track eastward across the northern Plains, while an attendant surface cyclone and trailing cold front move east-northeastward across the Dakotas early in the period. Along/ahead of the front, a tightening surface pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into a 45-50 kt low-level jet, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across parts of eastern SD, western MN, northeast NE, and far northwest IA. Here, 25-35 percent minimum RH will support an elevated to near-critical fire-weather risk, given the strong/gusty surface winds atop modestly receptive fuels. Farther south, midlevel westerly flow will strengthen across the southern Rockies -- ahead of an approaching midlevel trough/low moving ashore over southern CA. The strengthening downslope flow off the southern Rockies, and related lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO, will favor 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 15-20 percent afternoon RH across the southern High Plains. As a result, elevated to spotty critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z The previous forecast remains largely on track. The only appreciable change made to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook was to expand Elevated highlights eastward into central Minnesota and northern Iowa. Here, the latest guidance consensus shows 25-30 percent RH coinciding with 15-20 mph sustained southerly surface winds for at least a few hours this afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... A northern-stream midlevel shortwave trough will track eastward across the northern Plains, while an attendant surface cyclone and trailing cold front move east-northeastward across the Dakotas early in the period. Along/ahead of the front, a tightening surface pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into a 45-50 kt low-level jet, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across parts of eastern SD, western MN, northeast NE, and far northwest IA. Here, 25-35 percent minimum RH will support an elevated to near-critical fire-weather risk, given the strong/gusty surface winds atop modestly receptive fuels. Farther south, midlevel westerly flow will strengthen across the southern Rockies -- ahead of an approaching midlevel trough/low moving ashore over southern CA. The strengthening downslope flow off the southern Rockies, and related lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO, will favor 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 15-20 percent afternoon RH across the southern High Plains. As a result, elevated to spotty critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z The previous forecast remains largely on track. The only appreciable change made to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook was to expand Elevated highlights eastward into central Minnesota and northern Iowa. Here, the latest guidance consensus shows 25-30 percent RH coinciding with 15-20 mph sustained southerly surface winds for at least a few hours this afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... A northern-stream midlevel shortwave trough will track eastward across the northern Plains, while an attendant surface cyclone and trailing cold front move east-northeastward across the Dakotas early in the period. Along/ahead of the front, a tightening surface pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into a 45-50 kt low-level jet, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across parts of eastern SD, western MN, northeast NE, and far northwest IA. Here, 25-35 percent minimum RH will support an elevated to near-critical fire-weather risk, given the strong/gusty surface winds atop modestly receptive fuels. Farther south, midlevel westerly flow will strengthen across the southern Rockies -- ahead of an approaching midlevel trough/low moving ashore over southern CA. The strengthening downslope flow off the southern Rockies, and related lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO, will favor 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 15-20 percent afternoon RH across the southern High Plains. As a result, elevated to spotty critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z The previous forecast remains largely on track. The only appreciable change made to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook was to expand Elevated highlights eastward into central Minnesota and northern Iowa. Here, the latest guidance consensus shows 25-30 percent RH coinciding with 15-20 mph sustained southerly surface winds for at least a few hours this afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... A northern-stream midlevel shortwave trough will track eastward across the northern Plains, while an attendant surface cyclone and trailing cold front move east-northeastward across the Dakotas early in the period. Along/ahead of the front, a tightening surface pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into a 45-50 kt low-level jet, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across parts of eastern SD, western MN, northeast NE, and far northwest IA. Here, 25-35 percent minimum RH will support an elevated to near-critical fire-weather risk, given the strong/gusty surface winds atop modestly receptive fuels. Farther south, midlevel westerly flow will strengthen across the southern Rockies -- ahead of an approaching midlevel trough/low moving ashore over southern CA. The strengthening downslope flow off the southern Rockies, and related lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO, will favor 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 15-20 percent afternoon RH across the southern High Plains. As a result, elevated to spotty critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z The previous forecast remains largely on track. The only appreciable change made to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook was to expand Elevated highlights eastward into central Minnesota and northern Iowa. Here, the latest guidance consensus shows 25-30 percent RH coinciding with 15-20 mph sustained southerly surface winds for at least a few hours this afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... A northern-stream midlevel shortwave trough will track eastward across the northern Plains, while an attendant surface cyclone and trailing cold front move east-northeastward across the Dakotas early in the period. Along/ahead of the front, a tightening surface pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into a 45-50 kt low-level jet, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across parts of eastern SD, western MN, northeast NE, and far northwest IA. Here, 25-35 percent minimum RH will support an elevated to near-critical fire-weather risk, given the strong/gusty surface winds atop modestly receptive fuels. Farther south, midlevel westerly flow will strengthen across the southern Rockies -- ahead of an approaching midlevel trough/low moving ashore over southern CA. The strengthening downslope flow off the southern Rockies, and related lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO, will favor 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 15-20 percent afternoon RH across the southern High Plains. As a result, elevated to spotty critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z The previous forecast remains largely on track. The only appreciable change made to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook was to expand Elevated highlights eastward into central Minnesota and northern Iowa. Here, the latest guidance consensus shows 25-30 percent RH coinciding with 15-20 mph sustained southerly surface winds for at least a few hours this afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... A northern-stream midlevel shortwave trough will track eastward across the northern Plains, while an attendant surface cyclone and trailing cold front move east-northeastward across the Dakotas early in the period. Along/ahead of the front, a tightening surface pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into a 45-50 kt low-level jet, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across parts of eastern SD, western MN, northeast NE, and far northwest IA. Here, 25-35 percent minimum RH will support an elevated to near-critical fire-weather risk, given the strong/gusty surface winds atop modestly receptive fuels. Farther south, midlevel westerly flow will strengthen across the southern Rockies -- ahead of an approaching midlevel trough/low moving ashore over southern CA. The strengthening downslope flow off the southern Rockies, and related lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO, will favor 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 15-20 percent afternoon RH across the southern High Plains. As a result, elevated to spotty critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more