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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHERN TEXAS...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN KANSAS...SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI...WESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are likely to increase overnight across the southern into central Great Plains and portions of the Ozark Plateau, with widely scattered stronger cells posing at least some risk for severe hail. ...01Z Update... A short wave impulse, within negatively-tilted larger-scale mid-level trough now shifting across the southern Atlantic Seaboard, remains fairly vigorous as it progresses east-northeast of the southern Appalachians. Associated forcing for ascent and mid-level cooling appear to have aided a recent increase in thunderstorm development across the South Carolina coastal plain. However, destabilization remains modest, with the onset of diurnal cooling likely to further limit destabilization into the North Carolina coastal plain, as the mid-level perturbation becomes increasingly sheared across the southern Mid Atlantic coast vicinity this evening into the overnight hours. In the wake of the larger-scale scale mid-level troughing, models suggest at least some low-level drying may occur tonight across much of the northern into northwestern Gulf Basin. However, modest low-level moistening which has already occurred inland of the northwestern Gulf coast is forecast to continue to advect northward/northwestward through the southern into central Great Plains and parts of the Ozark Plateau, downstream of large-scale mid-level troughing turning inland of the Pacific coast into the Southwest. Aided by large-scale ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, beneath at least broadly difluent and divergent upper flow, destabilization is forecast to support an increase in thunderstorm activity overnight across a fairly broad area. While models suggest a narrow plume of better low-level moisture return across the lower Rio Grande Valley into the San Angelo/Abilene vicinity by daybreak Thursday, a combination of capping layers below the 700 mb level, and above 500 mb (beneath high-level ridging overspreading the southern Great Plains), might suppress thunderstorm intensities. Still, a relatively cool layer between (including temps around or below -15C) might support thunderstorm activity capable of producing small to marginally severe hail. Model forecast soundings indicate steeper mid/upper lapse rates associated with colder air aloft, supporting the development of larger elevated destabilization, north of the Red River into portions of south central/southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri. Coupled with at least modest cloud-bearing layer shear, scattered stronger cells overnight probably will pose at least some risk for severe hail. ..Kerr.. 03/07/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Mar 6 23:40:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Mar 6 23:40:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z A mid-level trough will traverse the southern U.S. as a surface cold front sweeps across the southern Plains Day 3/Friday. Critically dry and windy conditions will likely coincide with the International border late Friday afternoon. It is unclear how much of this area may experience appreciable precipitation accumulations in the Thursday-Friday time frame, precluding the addition of 70 percent Critical probabilities at this time. Thereafter, another mid-level trough will approach the central CONUS and promote strong surface lee troughing across the Plains states early to mid next week. Downslope flow may support critically dry and windy surface conditions across the southern High Plains through at least Days 6-7/Monday-Tuesday, where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. There is also the possibility that these conditions may persist into Day 8/Wednesday. However, details on the exact timing and evolution of next week's mid-level trough remain uncertain, precluding higher Day 6-7 Critical probabilities and any Day 8 probabilities this outlook. The latest medium range guidance is also hinting at the possibility for Critically dry/windy conditions across portions of the central into northern Plains early to mid next week. However, these conditions may be preceded by appreciable rainfall accumulations, so Critical probabilities have been withheld until the impacts of any potential future rainfall become clearer. ..Squitieri.. 03/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z A mid-level trough will traverse the southern U.S. as a surface cold front sweeps across the southern Plains Day 3/Friday. Critically dry and windy conditions will likely coincide with the International border late Friday afternoon. It is unclear how much of this area may experience appreciable precipitation accumulations in the Thursday-Friday time frame, precluding the addition of 70 percent Critical probabilities at this time. Thereafter, another mid-level trough will approach the central CONUS and promote strong surface lee troughing across the Plains states early to mid next week. Downslope flow may support critically dry and windy surface conditions across the southern High Plains through at least Days 6-7/Monday-Tuesday, where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. There is also the possibility that these conditions may persist into Day 8/Wednesday. However, details on the exact timing and evolution of next week's mid-level trough remain uncertain, precluding higher Day 6-7 Critical probabilities and any Day 8 probabilities this outlook. The latest medium range guidance is also hinting at the possibility for Critically dry/windy conditions across portions of the central into northern Plains early to mid next week. However, these conditions may be preceded by appreciable rainfall accumulations, so Critical probabilities have been withheld until the impacts of any potential future rainfall become clearer. ..Squitieri.. 03/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z A mid-level trough will traverse the southern U.S. as a surface cold front sweeps across the southern Plains Day 3/Friday. Critically dry and windy conditions will likely coincide with the International border late Friday afternoon. It is unclear how much of this area may experience appreciable precipitation accumulations in the Thursday-Friday time frame, precluding the addition of 70 percent Critical probabilities at this time. Thereafter, another mid-level trough will approach the central CONUS and promote strong surface lee troughing across the Plains states early to mid next week. Downslope flow may support critically dry and windy surface conditions across the southern High Plains through at least Days 6-7/Monday-Tuesday, where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. There is also the possibility that these conditions may persist into Day 8/Wednesday. However, details on the exact timing and evolution of next week's mid-level trough remain uncertain, precluding higher Day 6-7 Critical probabilities and any Day 8 probabilities this outlook. The latest medium range guidance is also hinting at the possibility for Critically dry/windy conditions across portions of the central into northern Plains early to mid next week. However, these conditions may be preceded by appreciable rainfall accumulations, so Critical probabilities have been withheld until the impacts of any potential future rainfall become clearer. ..Squitieri.. 03/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z A mid-level trough will traverse the southern U.S. as a surface cold front sweeps across the southern Plains Day 3/Friday. Critically dry and windy conditions will likely coincide with the International border late Friday afternoon. It is unclear how much of this area may experience appreciable precipitation accumulations in the Thursday-Friday time frame, precluding the addition of 70 percent Critical probabilities at this time. Thereafter, another mid-level trough will approach the central CONUS and promote strong surface lee troughing across the Plains states early to mid next week. Downslope flow may support critically dry and windy surface conditions across the southern High Plains through at least Days 6-7/Monday-Tuesday, where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. There is also the possibility that these conditions may persist into Day 8/Wednesday. However, details on the exact timing and evolution of next week's mid-level trough remain uncertain, precluding higher Day 6-7 Critical probabilities and any Day 8 probabilities this outlook. The latest medium range guidance is also hinting at the possibility for Critically dry/windy conditions across portions of the central into northern Plains early to mid next week. However, these conditions may be preceded by appreciable rainfall accumulations, so Critical probabilities have been withheld until the impacts of any potential future rainfall become clearer. ..Squitieri.. 03/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z A mid-level trough will traverse the southern U.S. as a surface cold front sweeps across the southern Plains Day 3/Friday. Critically dry and windy conditions will likely coincide with the International border late Friday afternoon. It is unclear how much of this area may experience appreciable precipitation accumulations in the Thursday-Friday time frame, precluding the addition of 70 percent Critical probabilities at this time. Thereafter, another mid-level trough will approach the central CONUS and promote strong surface lee troughing across the Plains states early to mid next week. Downslope flow may support critically dry and windy surface conditions across the southern High Plains through at least Days 6-7/Monday-Tuesday, where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. There is also the possibility that these conditions may persist into Day 8/Wednesday. However, details on the exact timing and evolution of next week's mid-level trough remain uncertain, precluding higher Day 6-7 Critical probabilities and any Day 8 probabilities this outlook. The latest medium range guidance is also hinting at the possibility for Critically dry/windy conditions across portions of the central into northern Plains early to mid next week. However, these conditions may be preceded by appreciable rainfall accumulations, so Critical probabilities have been withheld until the impacts of any potential future rainfall become clearer. ..Squitieri.. 03/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z A mid-level trough will traverse the southern U.S. as a surface cold front sweeps across the southern Plains Day 3/Friday. Critically dry and windy conditions will likely coincide with the International border late Friday afternoon. It is unclear how much of this area may experience appreciable precipitation accumulations in the Thursday-Friday time frame, precluding the addition of 70 percent Critical probabilities at this time. Thereafter, another mid-level trough will approach the central CONUS and promote strong surface lee troughing across the Plains states early to mid next week. Downslope flow may support critically dry and windy surface conditions across the southern High Plains through at least Days 6-7/Monday-Tuesday, where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. There is also the possibility that these conditions may persist into Day 8/Wednesday. However, details on the exact timing and evolution of next week's mid-level trough remain uncertain, precluding higher Day 6-7 Critical probabilities and any Day 8 probabilities this outlook. The latest medium range guidance is also hinting at the possibility for Critically dry/windy conditions across portions of the central into northern Plains early to mid next week. However, these conditions may be preceded by appreciable rainfall accumulations, so Critical probabilities have been withheld until the impacts of any potential future rainfall become clearer. ..Squitieri.. 03/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z A mid-level trough will traverse the southern U.S. as a surface cold front sweeps across the southern Plains Day 3/Friday. Critically dry and windy conditions will likely coincide with the International border late Friday afternoon. It is unclear how much of this area may experience appreciable precipitation accumulations in the Thursday-Friday time frame, precluding the addition of 70 percent Critical probabilities at this time. Thereafter, another mid-level trough will approach the central CONUS and promote strong surface lee troughing across the Plains states early to mid next week. Downslope flow may support critically dry and windy surface conditions across the southern High Plains through at least Days 6-7/Monday-Tuesday, where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. There is also the possibility that these conditions may persist into Day 8/Wednesday. However, details on the exact timing and evolution of next week's mid-level trough remain uncertain, precluding higher Day 6-7 Critical probabilities and any Day 8 probabilities this outlook. The latest medium range guidance is also hinting at the possibility for Critically dry/windy conditions across portions of the central into northern Plains early to mid next week. However, these conditions may be preceded by appreciable rainfall accumulations, so Critical probabilities have been withheld until the impacts of any potential future rainfall become clearer. ..Squitieri.. 03/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0195 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR EASTERN GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0195 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Areas affected...Far eastern Georgia into South Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 061841Z - 062045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strengthening thunderstorms may pose a damaging wind and hail threat across parts of far eastern Georgia into portions of South Carolina over the next several hours. This threat is expected to remain sufficiently limited to negate the need for a watch. DISCUSSION...Shallow convection across central GA has shown signs of intensification over the past 30-60 minutes based on lightning and cloud-top temperature trends. This is likely in response to gradual destabilization across the region as temperatures warm into the low to mid 70s to the south of a lingering surface trough/frontal boundary. Low-level warming appears to be somewhat faster than depicted by recent guidance, suggesting that the downstream environment is becoming increasingly favorable for sustained convection. Although low-level winds are fairly meager based on regional VWP and ACAR observations, 30-40 knot winds above 3 km should elongate hodographs sufficiently to support organized convection. Semi-discrete cells and clusters appear most probable given the unfocused forcing for ascent under the based of a mid-level trough, and should pose a threat for severe hail (most likely between 1.0 to 1.5 inches) and damaging winds - especially by late afternoon when low-level lapse rates will be greatest. The nebulous forcing for ascent casts some uncertainty onto overall storm coverage, which is supported by recent CAMs. Because of this, the spatial threat should remain focused to far eastern GA into southern/eastern SC. Watch issuance is not anticipated given this limitation. ..Moore/Hart.. 03/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...FFC... LAT...LON 32258067 32258140 32418187 32788215 33548209 33978157 34378021 34247936 33837890 33397902 33147910 32887945 32398028 32258067 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH FL...SC...AND WEST-CENTRAL TO NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early evening over parts of south Florida and South Carolina, and from late afternoon into tonight over west-central to northeast Texas. ...20Z Update... Across the FL Peninsula and SC vicinity, severe potential appears limited through about 23Z before convection shifts off the Atlantic coast. Over TX, initial cumulus development in the Concho Valley should be the precursor to a couple storms by early evening. Primary outlook change was to expand a bit east-northeast across a portion of the Red River Valley. Recent RRFS and 12Z MPAS runs, along with observational trends support potential for isolated thunderstorm development near the slowly advancing warm front. Lower-end severe hail and strong wind gusts appear possible. ..Grams.. 03/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024/ ...FL... A warm/moist air mass is present across the central/southeast portions of the FL Peninsula today, where pockets of daytime heating will yield afternoon moderate MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg. At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to form across this area during the afternoon, tracking slowly eastward toward the coast. Forecast soundings suggest low/deep layer shear is not particularly strong, but given the favorable thermodynamics, a few strong to briefly severe storms capable of hail and damaging winds will be possible - especially near the east coast. The severe threat should diminish after sunset. ...SC... Multiple weak shortwave troughs are rotating across the Carolinas today. One feature is currently over western GA, accompanied by a cluster of showers. This activity will move into SC this afternoon, where daytime heating will help to steepen low level lapse rates and lead to at least marginal CAPE values. Low level winds will be quite veered and relatively weak. However, a storm or two may be briefly intense with gusty winds or hail. ...TX... Clear skies will lead of strong heating and steepening lapse rates across west-central TX today. Most CAM solutions suggest one or two storms could form in the well-mixed zone near San Angelo late this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates would support a risk of hail or damaging wind gusts in these storms. After dark, a strengthening southerly low-level jet would likely allow this activity to become more numerous and spread northeastward toward the Red River. The overall severe threat would likely weaken after dark, but could still pose a risk of occasional hail or gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH FL...SC...AND WEST-CENTRAL TO NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early evening over parts of south Florida and South Carolina, and from late afternoon into tonight over west-central to northeast Texas. ...20Z Update... Across the FL Peninsula and SC vicinity, severe potential appears limited through about 23Z before convection shifts off the Atlantic coast. Over TX, initial cumulus development in the Concho Valley should be the precursor to a couple storms by early evening. Primary outlook change was to expand a bit east-northeast across a portion of the Red River Valley. Recent RRFS and 12Z MPAS runs, along with observational trends support potential for isolated thunderstorm development near the slowly advancing warm front. Lower-end severe hail and strong wind gusts appear possible. ..Grams.. 03/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024/ ...FL... A warm/moist air mass is present across the central/southeast portions of the FL Peninsula today, where pockets of daytime heating will yield afternoon moderate MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg. At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to form across this area during the afternoon, tracking slowly eastward toward the coast. Forecast soundings suggest low/deep layer shear is not particularly strong, but given the favorable thermodynamics, a few strong to briefly severe storms capable of hail and damaging winds will be possible - especially near the east coast. The severe threat should diminish after sunset. ...SC... Multiple weak shortwave troughs are rotating across the Carolinas today. One feature is currently over western GA, accompanied by a cluster of showers. This activity will move into SC this afternoon, where daytime heating will help to steepen low level lapse rates and lead to at least marginal CAPE values. Low level winds will be quite veered and relatively weak. However, a storm or two may be briefly intense with gusty winds or hail. ...TX... Clear skies will lead of strong heating and steepening lapse rates across west-central TX today. Most CAM solutions suggest one or two storms could form in the well-mixed zone near San Angelo late this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates would support a risk of hail or damaging wind gusts in these storms. After dark, a strengthening southerly low-level jet would likely allow this activity to become more numerous and spread northeastward toward the Red River. The overall severe threat would likely weaken after dark, but could still pose a risk of occasional hail or gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH FL...SC...AND WEST-CENTRAL TO NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early evening over parts of south Florida and South Carolina, and from late afternoon into tonight over west-central to northeast Texas. ...20Z Update... Across the FL Peninsula and SC vicinity, severe potential appears limited through about 23Z before convection shifts off the Atlantic coast. Over TX, initial cumulus development in the Concho Valley should be the precursor to a couple storms by early evening. Primary outlook change was to expand a bit east-northeast across a portion of the Red River Valley. Recent RRFS and 12Z MPAS runs, along with observational trends support potential for isolated thunderstorm development near the slowly advancing warm front. Lower-end severe hail and strong wind gusts appear possible. ..Grams.. 03/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024/ ...FL... A warm/moist air mass is present across the central/southeast portions of the FL Peninsula today, where pockets of daytime heating will yield afternoon moderate MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg. At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to form across this area during the afternoon, tracking slowly eastward toward the coast. Forecast soundings suggest low/deep layer shear is not particularly strong, but given the favorable thermodynamics, a few strong to briefly severe storms capable of hail and damaging winds will be possible - especially near the east coast. The severe threat should diminish after sunset. ...SC... Multiple weak shortwave troughs are rotating across the Carolinas today. One feature is currently over western GA, accompanied by a cluster of showers. This activity will move into SC this afternoon, where daytime heating will help to steepen low level lapse rates and lead to at least marginal CAPE values. Low level winds will be quite veered and relatively weak. However, a storm or two may be briefly intense with gusty winds or hail. ...TX... Clear skies will lead of strong heating and steepening lapse rates across west-central TX today. Most CAM solutions suggest one or two storms could form in the well-mixed zone near San Angelo late this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates would support a risk of hail or damaging wind gusts in these storms. After dark, a strengthening southerly low-level jet would likely allow this activity to become more numerous and spread northeastward toward the Red River. The overall severe threat would likely weaken after dark, but could still pose a risk of occasional hail or gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH FL...SC...AND WEST-CENTRAL TO NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early evening over parts of south Florida and South Carolina, and from late afternoon into tonight over west-central to northeast Texas. ...20Z Update... Across the FL Peninsula and SC vicinity, severe potential appears limited through about 23Z before convection shifts off the Atlantic coast. Over TX, initial cumulus development in the Concho Valley should be the precursor to a couple storms by early evening. Primary outlook change was to expand a bit east-northeast across a portion of the Red River Valley. Recent RRFS and 12Z MPAS runs, along with observational trends support potential for isolated thunderstorm development near the slowly advancing warm front. Lower-end severe hail and strong wind gusts appear possible. ..Grams.. 03/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024/ ...FL... A warm/moist air mass is present across the central/southeast portions of the FL Peninsula today, where pockets of daytime heating will yield afternoon moderate MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg. At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to form across this area during the afternoon, tracking slowly eastward toward the coast. Forecast soundings suggest low/deep layer shear is not particularly strong, but given the favorable thermodynamics, a few strong to briefly severe storms capable of hail and damaging winds will be possible - especially near the east coast. The severe threat should diminish after sunset. ...SC... Multiple weak shortwave troughs are rotating across the Carolinas today. One feature is currently over western GA, accompanied by a cluster of showers. This activity will move into SC this afternoon, where daytime heating will help to steepen low level lapse rates and lead to at least marginal CAPE values. Low level winds will be quite veered and relatively weak. However, a storm or two may be briefly intense with gusty winds or hail. ...TX... Clear skies will lead of strong heating and steepening lapse rates across west-central TX today. Most CAM solutions suggest one or two storms could form in the well-mixed zone near San Angelo late this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates would support a risk of hail or damaging wind gusts in these storms. After dark, a strengthening southerly low-level jet would likely allow this activity to become more numerous and spread northeastward toward the Red River. The overall severe threat would likely weaken after dark, but could still pose a risk of occasional hail or gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH FL...SC...AND WEST-CENTRAL TO NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early evening over parts of south Florida and South Carolina, and from late afternoon into tonight over west-central to northeast Texas. ...20Z Update... Across the FL Peninsula and SC vicinity, severe potential appears limited through about 23Z before convection shifts off the Atlantic coast. Over TX, initial cumulus development in the Concho Valley should be the precursor to a couple storms by early evening. Primary outlook change was to expand a bit east-northeast across a portion of the Red River Valley. Recent RRFS and 12Z MPAS runs, along with observational trends support potential for isolated thunderstorm development near the slowly advancing warm front. Lower-end severe hail and strong wind gusts appear possible. ..Grams.. 03/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024/ ...FL... A warm/moist air mass is present across the central/southeast portions of the FL Peninsula today, where pockets of daytime heating will yield afternoon moderate MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg. At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to form across this area during the afternoon, tracking slowly eastward toward the coast. Forecast soundings suggest low/deep layer shear is not particularly strong, but given the favorable thermodynamics, a few strong to briefly severe storms capable of hail and damaging winds will be possible - especially near the east coast. The severe threat should diminish after sunset. ...SC... Multiple weak shortwave troughs are rotating across the Carolinas today. One feature is currently over western GA, accompanied by a cluster of showers. This activity will move into SC this afternoon, where daytime heating will help to steepen low level lapse rates and lead to at least marginal CAPE values. Low level winds will be quite veered and relatively weak. However, a storm or two may be briefly intense with gusty winds or hail. ...TX... Clear skies will lead of strong heating and steepening lapse rates across west-central TX today. Most CAM solutions suggest one or two storms could form in the well-mixed zone near San Angelo late this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates would support a risk of hail or damaging wind gusts in these storms. After dark, a strengthening southerly low-level jet would likely allow this activity to become more numerous and spread northeastward toward the Red River. The overall severe threat would likely weaken after dark, but could still pose a risk of occasional hail or gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH FL...SC...AND WEST-CENTRAL TO NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early evening over parts of south Florida and South Carolina, and from late afternoon into tonight over west-central to northeast Texas. ...20Z Update... Across the FL Peninsula and SC vicinity, severe potential appears limited through about 23Z before convection shifts off the Atlantic coast. Over TX, initial cumulus development in the Concho Valley should be the precursor to a couple storms by early evening. Primary outlook change was to expand a bit east-northeast across a portion of the Red River Valley. Recent RRFS and 12Z MPAS runs, along with observational trends support potential for isolated thunderstorm development near the slowly advancing warm front. Lower-end severe hail and strong wind gusts appear possible. ..Grams.. 03/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024/ ...FL... A warm/moist air mass is present across the central/southeast portions of the FL Peninsula today, where pockets of daytime heating will yield afternoon moderate MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg. At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to form across this area during the afternoon, tracking slowly eastward toward the coast. Forecast soundings suggest low/deep layer shear is not particularly strong, but given the favorable thermodynamics, a few strong to briefly severe storms capable of hail and damaging winds will be possible - especially near the east coast. The severe threat should diminish after sunset. ...SC... Multiple weak shortwave troughs are rotating across the Carolinas today. One feature is currently over western GA, accompanied by a cluster of showers. This activity will move into SC this afternoon, where daytime heating will help to steepen low level lapse rates and lead to at least marginal CAPE values. Low level winds will be quite veered and relatively weak. However, a storm or two may be briefly intense with gusty winds or hail. ...TX... Clear skies will lead of strong heating and steepening lapse rates across west-central TX today. Most CAM solutions suggest one or two storms could form in the well-mixed zone near San Angelo late this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates would support a risk of hail or damaging wind gusts in these storms. After dark, a strengthening southerly low-level jet would likely allow this activity to become more numerous and spread northeastward toward the Red River. The overall severe threat would likely weaken after dark, but could still pose a risk of occasional hail or gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH FL...SC...AND WEST-CENTRAL TO NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early evening over parts of south Florida and South Carolina, and from late afternoon into tonight over west-central to northeast Texas. ...20Z Update... Across the FL Peninsula and SC vicinity, severe potential appears limited through about 23Z before convection shifts off the Atlantic coast. Over TX, initial cumulus development in the Concho Valley should be the precursor to a couple storms by early evening. Primary outlook change was to expand a bit east-northeast across a portion of the Red River Valley. Recent RRFS and 12Z MPAS runs, along with observational trends support potential for isolated thunderstorm development near the slowly advancing warm front. Lower-end severe hail and strong wind gusts appear possible. ..Grams.. 03/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024/ ...FL... A warm/moist air mass is present across the central/southeast portions of the FL Peninsula today, where pockets of daytime heating will yield afternoon moderate MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg. At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to form across this area during the afternoon, tracking slowly eastward toward the coast. Forecast soundings suggest low/deep layer shear is not particularly strong, but given the favorable thermodynamics, a few strong to briefly severe storms capable of hail and damaging winds will be possible - especially near the east coast. The severe threat should diminish after sunset. ...SC... Multiple weak shortwave troughs are rotating across the Carolinas today. One feature is currently over western GA, accompanied by a cluster of showers. This activity will move into SC this afternoon, where daytime heating will help to steepen low level lapse rates and lead to at least marginal CAPE values. Low level winds will be quite veered and relatively weak. However, a storm or two may be briefly intense with gusty winds or hail. ...TX... Clear skies will lead of strong heating and steepening lapse rates across west-central TX today. Most CAM solutions suggest one or two storms could form in the well-mixed zone near San Angelo late this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates would support a risk of hail or damaging wind gusts in these storms. After dark, a strengthening southerly low-level jet would likely allow this activity to become more numerous and spread northeastward toward the Red River. The overall severe threat would likely weaken after dark, but could still pose a risk of occasional hail or gusty winds. Read more

MD 0194 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0194 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Areas affected...central/southern Florida Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 061801Z - 062000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase over the next couple of hours. Isolated strong storms may produce hail near a half inch to 1 inch in diameter and gusty winds. A watch is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms along the southwest coast of the FL Peninsula have increased in intensity over the past 30 minutes or so. This activity is moving east along a weak differential heating zone created by early clouds and morning showers, and within a zone of weak low-level convergence. Despite scattered clouds across the central/southern Peninsula, dewpoints mostly in the upper 60s to near 70 F and modest midlevel lapse rates has allowed MLCAPE values to increase to around 1000-1500 J/kg. A 17z RAOB from MFL does indicated some weak inhibition in the 500-1500 m layer, though ample elevated instability is noted. Additional heating increasing ascent through the afternoon should largely mitigate inhibition. Vertical shear will remain somewhat marginal, around 25-35 kt, but sufficient for at least transient/short-lived strong/organized updrafts. Hail approaching 1 inch in diameter and gusty winds will be the main hazards with isolated thunderstorm activity through 23-00z. Low-level winds are fairly weak, especially through 1 km. However, some favorable curvature to low-level hodograph (per 17z MFL RAOB and region radar VWPs) and effective SRH around 100 m2/s2 amid a very moist low-level airmass could support a brief/weak spin-up near the southeast coast where better low-level convergence is noted. Overall, severe potential is expected to remain marginal and sporadic, and a watch is not expected at this time. ..Leitman/Hart.. 03/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... LAT...LON 25668008 25488016 25468029 25418060 25498093 25728141 26038180 26558182 27568158 28288116 28448073 28258039 28078021 27597998 26317984 25668008 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplifying large-scale trough over the western CONUS, strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains. In response, a lee surface cyclone will deepen in the vicinity of the TX/OK Panhandles, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over West TX. ...Southern High Plains... West of the dryline, strong downslope warming/drying will contribute to a deeply mixed boundary layer, extending up to around 4.5 km AGL across portions of eastern NM and West TX -- despite increasing mid/high-level clouds ahead of the large-scale trough. This will support an expansive area of 12-15 percent minimum RH and temperatures in the lower 70s across the area. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the lee cyclone, coupled with strong winds through the deepening boundary layer, will favor 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 35 mph). Given receptive fuels over the southern High Plains (80th+ percentile ERCs), critical fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of eastern NM and West TX. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more