Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Pronounced mid-level troughs will traverse the Southwest and eject into the Southern Plains during the early to mid-week time frame, promoting surface lee troughing across the central U.S. For Days 5-7/Monday-Wednesday, downslope flow will support some potential for dry and windy surface conditions across the southern High Plains, where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. Around Day 8/Thursday, a surface cold front will sweep across the southern Plains, resulting in cooler temperatures and possible rainfall. ..Squitieri.. 03/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Pronounced mid-level troughs will traverse the Southwest and eject into the Southern Plains during the early to mid-week time frame, promoting surface lee troughing across the central U.S. For Days 5-7/Monday-Wednesday, downslope flow will support some potential for dry and windy surface conditions across the southern High Plains, where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. Around Day 8/Thursday, a surface cold front will sweep across the southern Plains, resulting in cooler temperatures and possible rainfall. ..Squitieri.. 03/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Pronounced mid-level troughs will traverse the Southwest and eject into the Southern Plains during the early to mid-week time frame, promoting surface lee troughing across the central U.S. For Days 5-7/Monday-Wednesday, downslope flow will support some potential for dry and windy surface conditions across the southern High Plains, where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. Around Day 8/Thursday, a surface cold front will sweep across the southern Plains, resulting in cooler temperatures and possible rainfall. ..Squitieri.. 03/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Pronounced mid-level troughs will traverse the Southwest and eject into the Southern Plains during the early to mid-week time frame, promoting surface lee troughing across the central U.S. For Days 5-7/Monday-Wednesday, downslope flow will support some potential for dry and windy surface conditions across the southern High Plains, where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. Around Day 8/Thursday, a surface cold front will sweep across the southern Plains, resulting in cooler temperatures and possible rainfall. ..Squitieri.. 03/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Pronounced mid-level troughs will traverse the Southwest and eject into the Southern Plains during the early to mid-week time frame, promoting surface lee troughing across the central U.S. For Days 5-7/Monday-Wednesday, downslope flow will support some potential for dry and windy surface conditions across the southern High Plains, where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. Around Day 8/Thursday, a surface cold front will sweep across the southern Plains, resulting in cooler temperatures and possible rainfall. ..Squitieri.. 03/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Pronounced mid-level troughs will traverse the Southwest and eject into the Southern Plains during the early to mid-week time frame, promoting surface lee troughing across the central U.S. For Days 5-7/Monday-Wednesday, downslope flow will support some potential for dry and windy surface conditions across the southern High Plains, where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. Around Day 8/Thursday, a surface cold front will sweep across the southern Plains, resulting in cooler temperatures and possible rainfall. ..Squitieri.. 03/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Pronounced mid-level troughs will traverse the Southwest and eject into the Southern Plains during the early to mid-week time frame, promoting surface lee troughing across the central U.S. For Days 5-7/Monday-Wednesday, downslope flow will support some potential for dry and windy surface conditions across the southern High Plains, where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. Around Day 8/Thursday, a surface cold front will sweep across the southern Plains, resulting in cooler temperatures and possible rainfall. ..Squitieri.. 03/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Pronounced mid-level troughs will traverse the Southwest and eject into the Southern Plains during the early to mid-week time frame, promoting surface lee troughing across the central U.S. For Days 5-7/Monday-Wednesday, downslope flow will support some potential for dry and windy surface conditions across the southern High Plains, where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. Around Day 8/Thursday, a surface cold front will sweep across the southern Plains, resulting in cooler temperatures and possible rainfall. ..Squitieri.. 03/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Pronounced mid-level troughs will traverse the Southwest and eject into the Southern Plains during the early to mid-week time frame, promoting surface lee troughing across the central U.S. For Days 5-7/Monday-Wednesday, downslope flow will support some potential for dry and windy surface conditions across the southern High Plains, where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. Around Day 8/Thursday, a surface cold front will sweep across the southern Plains, resulting in cooler temperatures and possible rainfall. ..Squitieri.. 03/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Pronounced mid-level troughs will traverse the Southwest and eject into the Southern Plains during the early to mid-week time frame, promoting surface lee troughing across the central U.S. For Days 5-7/Monday-Wednesday, downslope flow will support some potential for dry and windy surface conditions across the southern High Plains, where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. Around Day 8/Thursday, a surface cold front will sweep across the southern Plains, resulting in cooler temperatures and possible rainfall. ..Squitieri.. 03/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Pronounced mid-level troughs will traverse the Southwest and eject into the Southern Plains during the early to mid-week time frame, promoting surface lee troughing across the central U.S. For Days 5-7/Monday-Wednesday, downslope flow will support some potential for dry and windy surface conditions across the southern High Plains, where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. Around Day 8/Thursday, a surface cold front will sweep across the southern Plains, resulting in cooler temperatures and possible rainfall. ..Squitieri.. 03/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Pronounced mid-level troughs will traverse the Southwest and eject into the Southern Plains during the early to mid-week time frame, promoting surface lee troughing across the central U.S. For Days 5-7/Monday-Wednesday, downslope flow will support some potential for dry and windy surface conditions across the southern High Plains, where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. Around Day 8/Thursday, a surface cold front will sweep across the southern Plains, resulting in cooler temperatures and possible rainfall. ..Squitieri.. 03/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0196 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0196 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Areas affected...Northeast Colorado to southwest Nebraska Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 071642Z - 072045Z SUMMARY...The potential for heavy snowfall rates above 1 inch/hour will increase through early afternoon across parts of northeast Colorado into southwest Nebraska. DISCUSSION...Over the past 1-2 hours, surface observations across northeast CO have shown a steady reduction in visibility due to falling snow as low-level temperatures fall below freezing and allow a p-type transition to mainly snow. This activity is largely being driven by a corridor of focused ascent within a warm advection regime between roughly 850-650 mb to the north of a meandering vorticity maximum (evident in water-vapor and regional radar imagery). Broad ascent within a mid-level deformation zone draped over the region should not only augment local ascent, but also prolong the duration of precipitation through the afternoon/evening. This should foster a swath of moderate to heavy snow with snowfall rates between 1-2 inches/hour. Furthermore, upstream lightning and regional 12 UTC soundings indicated mid-level lapse rates are sufficiently steep for a continuation of weak convection across parts of CO/NE, which may lead to brief bursts of heavier snowfall. Latest high-res guidance suggests the onset of heavier snowfall rates is probable during the 18-20 UTC period, which seems reasonable based on the aforementioned observed trends. ..Moore.. 03/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 40130357 40920323 41110300 41530223 41590196 41590167 41450139 41210129 40850163 40680191 40450233 40210263 39930292 39860306 39840320 39930352 40130357 Read more

WW 0030 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0030 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Mar 7 20:08:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST AND CENTRAL TX TO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the southern Great Plains to the Ozark Plateau into tonight. ...20Z Update... Overall forecast appears largely on track for the trio of geographical areas described in the 1630Z outlook. Only consequential change is to increase tornado and significant severe hail probabilities immediately ahead of the surface cyclone near the north-central OK/south-central KS border area. A ribbon of mid to upper 50s surface dew points being advected northwest from eastern OK, in conjunction with an enlarged low-level hodograph along the surface warm front, should support potential for a slow-moving, longer-lived supercell. This scenario is broadly noted in 12Z MPAS and recent RRFS/WoFS runs. Increasing convective coverage is expected along the front during the evening which will eventually yield upscale growth and more of a mixed wind/embedded hail threat in time. See MCDs 197 and 198 for additional near-term information. ..Grams.. 03/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough is deepening across the Four Corners region today, with fast mid/high level flow extending across northern Mexico into TX. Beneath this fast zonal flow regime, southerly low-level winds are helping to advect/maintain upper 50s and 60s dewpoints over much of TX and southern OK. Widespread cloud cover this morning will continue to suppress strong heating except across western OK and west-central TX where a dryline will develop. This will lead to multiple mesoscale areas of concern for strong/severe thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. ...Central TX... An area of residual precipitation is affecting north-central TX. The outflow boundary along the southern edge of this convection will likely become the focus for intensifying storms later today. Strong flow aloft will promote supercell structures, with very large hail possible in the initial activity. Storms that can maintain discrete nature may also pose some tornado risk this evening as southerly low-level winds and shear increase. By late evening, remaining storms may track eastward across the SLGT risk area with a threat of damaging wind gusts. ...Western/Central OK... Isolated supercell storms are expected to form along the diffuse dryline over western OK and western north TX. This activity may produce very large hail initially, but an evolution to more linear structures is expected during the early evening, with hail and damaging winds possible. ...Southeast KS/Southwest MO... Dense cloud cover over this region is expected to erode by mid afternoon, allowing some daytime heating and destabilization along a surface boundary extending across eastern KS into western MO. This zone will likely be the focus for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Despite rather weak instability, shear profiles would support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards for several hours through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST AND CENTRAL TX TO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the southern Great Plains to the Ozark Plateau into tonight. ...20Z Update... Overall forecast appears largely on track for the trio of geographical areas described in the 1630Z outlook. Only consequential change is to increase tornado and significant severe hail probabilities immediately ahead of the surface cyclone near the north-central OK/south-central KS border area. A ribbon of mid to upper 50s surface dew points being advected northwest from eastern OK, in conjunction with an enlarged low-level hodograph along the surface warm front, should support potential for a slow-moving, longer-lived supercell. This scenario is broadly noted in 12Z MPAS and recent RRFS/WoFS runs. Increasing convective coverage is expected along the front during the evening which will eventually yield upscale growth and more of a mixed wind/embedded hail threat in time. See MCDs 197 and 198 for additional near-term information. ..Grams.. 03/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough is deepening across the Four Corners region today, with fast mid/high level flow extending across northern Mexico into TX. Beneath this fast zonal flow regime, southerly low-level winds are helping to advect/maintain upper 50s and 60s dewpoints over much of TX and southern OK. Widespread cloud cover this morning will continue to suppress strong heating except across western OK and west-central TX where a dryline will develop. This will lead to multiple mesoscale areas of concern for strong/severe thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. ...Central TX... An area of residual precipitation is affecting north-central TX. The outflow boundary along the southern edge of this convection will likely become the focus for intensifying storms later today. Strong flow aloft will promote supercell structures, with very large hail possible in the initial activity. Storms that can maintain discrete nature may also pose some tornado risk this evening as southerly low-level winds and shear increase. By late evening, remaining storms may track eastward across the SLGT risk area with a threat of damaging wind gusts. ...Western/Central OK... Isolated supercell storms are expected to form along the diffuse dryline over western OK and western north TX. This activity may produce very large hail initially, but an evolution to more linear structures is expected during the early evening, with hail and damaging winds possible. ...Southeast KS/Southwest MO... Dense cloud cover over this region is expected to erode by mid afternoon, allowing some daytime heating and destabilization along a surface boundary extending across eastern KS into western MO. This zone will likely be the focus for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Despite rather weak instability, shear profiles would support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards for several hours through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST AND CENTRAL TX TO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the southern Great Plains to the Ozark Plateau into tonight. ...20Z Update... Overall forecast appears largely on track for the trio of geographical areas described in the 1630Z outlook. Only consequential change is to increase tornado and significant severe hail probabilities immediately ahead of the surface cyclone near the north-central OK/south-central KS border area. A ribbon of mid to upper 50s surface dew points being advected northwest from eastern OK, in conjunction with an enlarged low-level hodograph along the surface warm front, should support potential for a slow-moving, longer-lived supercell. This scenario is broadly noted in 12Z MPAS and recent RRFS/WoFS runs. Increasing convective coverage is expected along the front during the evening which will eventually yield upscale growth and more of a mixed wind/embedded hail threat in time. See MCDs 197 and 198 for additional near-term information. ..Grams.. 03/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough is deepening across the Four Corners region today, with fast mid/high level flow extending across northern Mexico into TX. Beneath this fast zonal flow regime, southerly low-level winds are helping to advect/maintain upper 50s and 60s dewpoints over much of TX and southern OK. Widespread cloud cover this morning will continue to suppress strong heating except across western OK and west-central TX where a dryline will develop. This will lead to multiple mesoscale areas of concern for strong/severe thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. ...Central TX... An area of residual precipitation is affecting north-central TX. The outflow boundary along the southern edge of this convection will likely become the focus for intensifying storms later today. Strong flow aloft will promote supercell structures, with very large hail possible in the initial activity. Storms that can maintain discrete nature may also pose some tornado risk this evening as southerly low-level winds and shear increase. By late evening, remaining storms may track eastward across the SLGT risk area with a threat of damaging wind gusts. ...Western/Central OK... Isolated supercell storms are expected to form along the diffuse dryline over western OK and western north TX. This activity may produce very large hail initially, but an evolution to more linear structures is expected during the early evening, with hail and damaging winds possible. ...Southeast KS/Southwest MO... Dense cloud cover over this region is expected to erode by mid afternoon, allowing some daytime heating and destabilization along a surface boundary extending across eastern KS into western MO. This zone will likely be the focus for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Despite rather weak instability, shear profiles would support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards for several hours through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST AND CENTRAL TX TO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the southern Great Plains to the Ozark Plateau into tonight. ...20Z Update... Overall forecast appears largely on track for the trio of geographical areas described in the 1630Z outlook. Only consequential change is to increase tornado and significant severe hail probabilities immediately ahead of the surface cyclone near the north-central OK/south-central KS border area. A ribbon of mid to upper 50s surface dew points being advected northwest from eastern OK, in conjunction with an enlarged low-level hodograph along the surface warm front, should support potential for a slow-moving, longer-lived supercell. This scenario is broadly noted in 12Z MPAS and recent RRFS/WoFS runs. Increasing convective coverage is expected along the front during the evening which will eventually yield upscale growth and more of a mixed wind/embedded hail threat in time. See MCDs 197 and 198 for additional near-term information. ..Grams.. 03/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough is deepening across the Four Corners region today, with fast mid/high level flow extending across northern Mexico into TX. Beneath this fast zonal flow regime, southerly low-level winds are helping to advect/maintain upper 50s and 60s dewpoints over much of TX and southern OK. Widespread cloud cover this morning will continue to suppress strong heating except across western OK and west-central TX where a dryline will develop. This will lead to multiple mesoscale areas of concern for strong/severe thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. ...Central TX... An area of residual precipitation is affecting north-central TX. The outflow boundary along the southern edge of this convection will likely become the focus for intensifying storms later today. Strong flow aloft will promote supercell structures, with very large hail possible in the initial activity. Storms that can maintain discrete nature may also pose some tornado risk this evening as southerly low-level winds and shear increase. By late evening, remaining storms may track eastward across the SLGT risk area with a threat of damaging wind gusts. ...Western/Central OK... Isolated supercell storms are expected to form along the diffuse dryline over western OK and western north TX. This activity may produce very large hail initially, but an evolution to more linear structures is expected during the early evening, with hail and damaging winds possible. ...Southeast KS/Southwest MO... Dense cloud cover over this region is expected to erode by mid afternoon, allowing some daytime heating and destabilization along a surface boundary extending across eastern KS into western MO. This zone will likely be the focus for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Despite rather weak instability, shear profiles would support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards for several hours through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST AND CENTRAL TX TO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the southern Great Plains to the Ozark Plateau into tonight. ...20Z Update... Overall forecast appears largely on track for the trio of geographical areas described in the 1630Z outlook. Only consequential change is to increase tornado and significant severe hail probabilities immediately ahead of the surface cyclone near the north-central OK/south-central KS border area. A ribbon of mid to upper 50s surface dew points being advected northwest from eastern OK, in conjunction with an enlarged low-level hodograph along the surface warm front, should support potential for a slow-moving, longer-lived supercell. This scenario is broadly noted in 12Z MPAS and recent RRFS/WoFS runs. Increasing convective coverage is expected along the front during the evening which will eventually yield upscale growth and more of a mixed wind/embedded hail threat in time. See MCDs 197 and 198 for additional near-term information. ..Grams.. 03/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough is deepening across the Four Corners region today, with fast mid/high level flow extending across northern Mexico into TX. Beneath this fast zonal flow regime, southerly low-level winds are helping to advect/maintain upper 50s and 60s dewpoints over much of TX and southern OK. Widespread cloud cover this morning will continue to suppress strong heating except across western OK and west-central TX where a dryline will develop. This will lead to multiple mesoscale areas of concern for strong/severe thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. ...Central TX... An area of residual precipitation is affecting north-central TX. The outflow boundary along the southern edge of this convection will likely become the focus for intensifying storms later today. Strong flow aloft will promote supercell structures, with very large hail possible in the initial activity. Storms that can maintain discrete nature may also pose some tornado risk this evening as southerly low-level winds and shear increase. By late evening, remaining storms may track eastward across the SLGT risk area with a threat of damaging wind gusts. ...Western/Central OK... Isolated supercell storms are expected to form along the diffuse dryline over western OK and western north TX. This activity may produce very large hail initially, but an evolution to more linear structures is expected during the early evening, with hail and damaging winds possible. ...Southeast KS/Southwest MO... Dense cloud cover over this region is expected to erode by mid afternoon, allowing some daytime heating and destabilization along a surface boundary extending across eastern KS into western MO. This zone will likely be the focus for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Despite rather weak instability, shear profiles would support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards for several hours through early evening. Read more