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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST AND CENTRAL TX TO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the southern Great Plains to the Ozark Plateau into tonight. ...20Z Update... Overall forecast appears largely on track for the trio of geographical areas described in the 1630Z outlook. Only consequential change is to increase tornado and significant severe hail probabilities immediately ahead of the surface cyclone near the north-central OK/south-central KS border area. A ribbon of mid to upper 50s surface dew points being advected northwest from eastern OK, in conjunction with an enlarged low-level hodograph along the surface warm front, should support potential for a slow-moving, longer-lived supercell. This scenario is broadly noted in 12Z MPAS and recent RRFS/WoFS runs. Increasing convective coverage is expected along the front during the evening which will eventually yield upscale growth and more of a mixed wind/embedded hail threat in time. See MCDs 197 and 198 for additional near-term information. ..Grams.. 03/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough is deepening across the Four Corners region today, with fast mid/high level flow extending across northern Mexico into TX. Beneath this fast zonal flow regime, southerly low-level winds are helping to advect/maintain upper 50s and 60s dewpoints over much of TX and southern OK. Widespread cloud cover this morning will continue to suppress strong heating except across western OK and west-central TX where a dryline will develop. This will lead to multiple mesoscale areas of concern for strong/severe thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. ...Central TX... An area of residual precipitation is affecting north-central TX. The outflow boundary along the southern edge of this convection will likely become the focus for intensifying storms later today. Strong flow aloft will promote supercell structures, with very large hail possible in the initial activity. Storms that can maintain discrete nature may also pose some tornado risk this evening as southerly low-level winds and shear increase. By late evening, remaining storms may track eastward across the SLGT risk area with a threat of damaging wind gusts. ...Western/Central OK... Isolated supercell storms are expected to form along the diffuse dryline over western OK and western north TX. This activity may produce very large hail initially, but an evolution to more linear structures is expected during the early evening, with hail and damaging winds possible. ...Southeast KS/Southwest MO... Dense cloud cover over this region is expected to erode by mid afternoon, allowing some daytime heating and destabilization along a surface boundary extending across eastern KS into western MO. This zone will likely be the focus for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Despite rather weak instability, shear profiles would support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards for several hours through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST AND CENTRAL TX TO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the southern Great Plains to the Ozark Plateau into tonight. ...20Z Update... Overall forecast appears largely on track for the trio of geographical areas described in the 1630Z outlook. Only consequential change is to increase tornado and significant severe hail probabilities immediately ahead of the surface cyclone near the north-central OK/south-central KS border area. A ribbon of mid to upper 50s surface dew points being advected northwest from eastern OK, in conjunction with an enlarged low-level hodograph along the surface warm front, should support potential for a slow-moving, longer-lived supercell. This scenario is broadly noted in 12Z MPAS and recent RRFS/WoFS runs. Increasing convective coverage is expected along the front during the evening which will eventually yield upscale growth and more of a mixed wind/embedded hail threat in time. See MCDs 197 and 198 for additional near-term information. ..Grams.. 03/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough is deepening across the Four Corners region today, with fast mid/high level flow extending across northern Mexico into TX. Beneath this fast zonal flow regime, southerly low-level winds are helping to advect/maintain upper 50s and 60s dewpoints over much of TX and southern OK. Widespread cloud cover this morning will continue to suppress strong heating except across western OK and west-central TX where a dryline will develop. This will lead to multiple mesoscale areas of concern for strong/severe thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. ...Central TX... An area of residual precipitation is affecting north-central TX. The outflow boundary along the southern edge of this convection will likely become the focus for intensifying storms later today. Strong flow aloft will promote supercell structures, with very large hail possible in the initial activity. Storms that can maintain discrete nature may also pose some tornado risk this evening as southerly low-level winds and shear increase. By late evening, remaining storms may track eastward across the SLGT risk area with a threat of damaging wind gusts. ...Western/Central OK... Isolated supercell storms are expected to form along the diffuse dryline over western OK and western north TX. This activity may produce very large hail initially, but an evolution to more linear structures is expected during the early evening, with hail and damaging winds possible. ...Southeast KS/Southwest MO... Dense cloud cover over this region is expected to erode by mid afternoon, allowing some daytime heating and destabilization along a surface boundary extending across eastern KS into western MO. This zone will likely be the focus for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Despite rather weak instability, shear profiles would support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards for several hours through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST AND CENTRAL TX TO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the southern Great Plains to the Ozark Plateau into tonight. ...20Z Update... Overall forecast appears largely on track for the trio of geographical areas described in the 1630Z outlook. Only consequential change is to increase tornado and significant severe hail probabilities immediately ahead of the surface cyclone near the north-central OK/south-central KS border area. A ribbon of mid to upper 50s surface dew points being advected northwest from eastern OK, in conjunction with an enlarged low-level hodograph along the surface warm front, should support potential for a slow-moving, longer-lived supercell. This scenario is broadly noted in 12Z MPAS and recent RRFS/WoFS runs. Increasing convective coverage is expected along the front during the evening which will eventually yield upscale growth and more of a mixed wind/embedded hail threat in time. See MCDs 197 and 198 for additional near-term information. ..Grams.. 03/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough is deepening across the Four Corners region today, with fast mid/high level flow extending across northern Mexico into TX. Beneath this fast zonal flow regime, southerly low-level winds are helping to advect/maintain upper 50s and 60s dewpoints over much of TX and southern OK. Widespread cloud cover this morning will continue to suppress strong heating except across western OK and west-central TX where a dryline will develop. This will lead to multiple mesoscale areas of concern for strong/severe thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. ...Central TX... An area of residual precipitation is affecting north-central TX. The outflow boundary along the southern edge of this convection will likely become the focus for intensifying storms later today. Strong flow aloft will promote supercell structures, with very large hail possible in the initial activity. Storms that can maintain discrete nature may also pose some tornado risk this evening as southerly low-level winds and shear increase. By late evening, remaining storms may track eastward across the SLGT risk area with a threat of damaging wind gusts. ...Western/Central OK... Isolated supercell storms are expected to form along the diffuse dryline over western OK and western north TX. This activity may produce very large hail initially, but an evolution to more linear structures is expected during the early evening, with hail and damaging winds possible. ...Southeast KS/Southwest MO... Dense cloud cover over this region is expected to erode by mid afternoon, allowing some daytime heating and destabilization along a surface boundary extending across eastern KS into western MO. This zone will likely be the focus for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Despite rather weak instability, shear profiles would support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards for several hours through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST AND CENTRAL TX TO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the southern Great Plains to the Ozark Plateau into tonight. ...20Z Update... Overall forecast appears largely on track for the trio of geographical areas described in the 1630Z outlook. Only consequential change is to increase tornado and significant severe hail probabilities immediately ahead of the surface cyclone near the north-central OK/south-central KS border area. A ribbon of mid to upper 50s surface dew points being advected northwest from eastern OK, in conjunction with an enlarged low-level hodograph along the surface warm front, should support potential for a slow-moving, longer-lived supercell. This scenario is broadly noted in 12Z MPAS and recent RRFS/WoFS runs. Increasing convective coverage is expected along the front during the evening which will eventually yield upscale growth and more of a mixed wind/embedded hail threat in time. See MCDs 197 and 198 for additional near-term information. ..Grams.. 03/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough is deepening across the Four Corners region today, with fast mid/high level flow extending across northern Mexico into TX. Beneath this fast zonal flow regime, southerly low-level winds are helping to advect/maintain upper 50s and 60s dewpoints over much of TX and southern OK. Widespread cloud cover this morning will continue to suppress strong heating except across western OK and west-central TX where a dryline will develop. This will lead to multiple mesoscale areas of concern for strong/severe thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. ...Central TX... An area of residual precipitation is affecting north-central TX. The outflow boundary along the southern edge of this convection will likely become the focus for intensifying storms later today. Strong flow aloft will promote supercell structures, with very large hail possible in the initial activity. Storms that can maintain discrete nature may also pose some tornado risk this evening as southerly low-level winds and shear increase. By late evening, remaining storms may track eastward across the SLGT risk area with a threat of damaging wind gusts. ...Western/Central OK... Isolated supercell storms are expected to form along the diffuse dryline over western OK and western north TX. This activity may produce very large hail initially, but an evolution to more linear structures is expected during the early evening, with hail and damaging winds possible. ...Southeast KS/Southwest MO... Dense cloud cover over this region is expected to erode by mid afternoon, allowing some daytime heating and destabilization along a surface boundary extending across eastern KS into western MO. This zone will likely be the focus for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Despite rather weak instability, shear profiles would support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards for several hours through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST AND CENTRAL TX TO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the southern Great Plains to the Ozark Plateau into tonight. ...20Z Update... Overall forecast appears largely on track for the trio of geographical areas described in the 1630Z outlook. Only consequential change is to increase tornado and significant severe hail probabilities immediately ahead of the surface cyclone near the north-central OK/south-central KS border area. A ribbon of mid to upper 50s surface dew points being advected northwest from eastern OK, in conjunction with an enlarged low-level hodograph along the surface warm front, should support potential for a slow-moving, longer-lived supercell. This scenario is broadly noted in 12Z MPAS and recent RRFS/WoFS runs. Increasing convective coverage is expected along the front during the evening which will eventually yield upscale growth and more of a mixed wind/embedded hail threat in time. See MCDs 197 and 198 for additional near-term information. ..Grams.. 03/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough is deepening across the Four Corners region today, with fast mid/high level flow extending across northern Mexico into TX. Beneath this fast zonal flow regime, southerly low-level winds are helping to advect/maintain upper 50s and 60s dewpoints over much of TX and southern OK. Widespread cloud cover this morning will continue to suppress strong heating except across western OK and west-central TX where a dryline will develop. This will lead to multiple mesoscale areas of concern for strong/severe thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. ...Central TX... An area of residual precipitation is affecting north-central TX. The outflow boundary along the southern edge of this convection will likely become the focus for intensifying storms later today. Strong flow aloft will promote supercell structures, with very large hail possible in the initial activity. Storms that can maintain discrete nature may also pose some tornado risk this evening as southerly low-level winds and shear increase. By late evening, remaining storms may track eastward across the SLGT risk area with a threat of damaging wind gusts. ...Western/Central OK... Isolated supercell storms are expected to form along the diffuse dryline over western OK and western north TX. This activity may produce very large hail initially, but an evolution to more linear structures is expected during the early evening, with hail and damaging winds possible. ...Southeast KS/Southwest MO... Dense cloud cover over this region is expected to erode by mid afternoon, allowing some daytime heating and destabilization along a surface boundary extending across eastern KS into western MO. This zone will likely be the focus for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Despite rather weak instability, shear profiles would support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards for several hours through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST AND CENTRAL TX TO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the southern Great Plains to the Ozark Plateau into tonight. ...20Z Update... Overall forecast appears largely on track for the trio of geographical areas described in the 1630Z outlook. Only consequential change is to increase tornado and significant severe hail probabilities immediately ahead of the surface cyclone near the north-central OK/south-central KS border area. A ribbon of mid to upper 50s surface dew points being advected northwest from eastern OK, in conjunction with an enlarged low-level hodograph along the surface warm front, should support potential for a slow-moving, longer-lived supercell. This scenario is broadly noted in 12Z MPAS and recent RRFS/WoFS runs. Increasing convective coverage is expected along the front during the evening which will eventually yield upscale growth and more of a mixed wind/embedded hail threat in time. See MCDs 197 and 198 for additional near-term information. ..Grams.. 03/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough is deepening across the Four Corners region today, with fast mid/high level flow extending across northern Mexico into TX. Beneath this fast zonal flow regime, southerly low-level winds are helping to advect/maintain upper 50s and 60s dewpoints over much of TX and southern OK. Widespread cloud cover this morning will continue to suppress strong heating except across western OK and west-central TX where a dryline will develop. This will lead to multiple mesoscale areas of concern for strong/severe thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. ...Central TX... An area of residual precipitation is affecting north-central TX. The outflow boundary along the southern edge of this convection will likely become the focus for intensifying storms later today. Strong flow aloft will promote supercell structures, with very large hail possible in the initial activity. Storms that can maintain discrete nature may also pose some tornado risk this evening as southerly low-level winds and shear increase. By late evening, remaining storms may track eastward across the SLGT risk area with a threat of damaging wind gusts. ...Western/Central OK... Isolated supercell storms are expected to form along the diffuse dryline over western OK and western north TX. This activity may produce very large hail initially, but an evolution to more linear structures is expected during the early evening, with hail and damaging winds possible. ...Southeast KS/Southwest MO... Dense cloud cover over this region is expected to erode by mid afternoon, allowing some daytime heating and destabilization along a surface boundary extending across eastern KS into western MO. This zone will likely be the focus for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Despite rather weak instability, shear profiles would support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards for several hours through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST AND CENTRAL TX TO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the southern Great Plains to the Ozark Plateau into tonight. ...20Z Update... Overall forecast appears largely on track for the trio of geographical areas described in the 1630Z outlook. Only consequential change is to increase tornado and significant severe hail probabilities immediately ahead of the surface cyclone near the north-central OK/south-central KS border area. A ribbon of mid to upper 50s surface dew points being advected northwest from eastern OK, in conjunction with an enlarged low-level hodograph along the surface warm front, should support potential for a slow-moving, longer-lived supercell. This scenario is broadly noted in 12Z MPAS and recent RRFS/WoFS runs. Increasing convective coverage is expected along the front during the evening which will eventually yield upscale growth and more of a mixed wind/embedded hail threat in time. See MCDs 197 and 198 for additional near-term information. ..Grams.. 03/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough is deepening across the Four Corners region today, with fast mid/high level flow extending across northern Mexico into TX. Beneath this fast zonal flow regime, southerly low-level winds are helping to advect/maintain upper 50s and 60s dewpoints over much of TX and southern OK. Widespread cloud cover this morning will continue to suppress strong heating except across western OK and west-central TX where a dryline will develop. This will lead to multiple mesoscale areas of concern for strong/severe thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. ...Central TX... An area of residual precipitation is affecting north-central TX. The outflow boundary along the southern edge of this convection will likely become the focus for intensifying storms later today. Strong flow aloft will promote supercell structures, with very large hail possible in the initial activity. Storms that can maintain discrete nature may also pose some tornado risk this evening as southerly low-level winds and shear increase. By late evening, remaining storms may track eastward across the SLGT risk area with a threat of damaging wind gusts. ...Western/Central OK... Isolated supercell storms are expected to form along the diffuse dryline over western OK and western north TX. This activity may produce very large hail initially, but an evolution to more linear structures is expected during the early evening, with hail and damaging winds possible. ...Southeast KS/Southwest MO... Dense cloud cover over this region is expected to erode by mid afternoon, allowing some daytime heating and destabilization along a surface boundary extending across eastern KS into western MO. This zone will likely be the focus for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Despite rather weak instability, shear profiles would support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards for several hours through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST AND CENTRAL TX TO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the southern Great Plains to the Ozark Plateau into tonight. ...20Z Update... Overall forecast appears largely on track for the trio of geographical areas described in the 1630Z outlook. Only consequential change is to increase tornado and significant severe hail probabilities immediately ahead of the surface cyclone near the north-central OK/south-central KS border area. A ribbon of mid to upper 50s surface dew points being advected northwest from eastern OK, in conjunction with an enlarged low-level hodograph along the surface warm front, should support potential for a slow-moving, longer-lived supercell. This scenario is broadly noted in 12Z MPAS and recent RRFS/WoFS runs. Increasing convective coverage is expected along the front during the evening which will eventually yield upscale growth and more of a mixed wind/embedded hail threat in time. See MCDs 197 and 198 for additional near-term information. ..Grams.. 03/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough is deepening across the Four Corners region today, with fast mid/high level flow extending across northern Mexico into TX. Beneath this fast zonal flow regime, southerly low-level winds are helping to advect/maintain upper 50s and 60s dewpoints over much of TX and southern OK. Widespread cloud cover this morning will continue to suppress strong heating except across western OK and west-central TX where a dryline will develop. This will lead to multiple mesoscale areas of concern for strong/severe thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. ...Central TX... An area of residual precipitation is affecting north-central TX. The outflow boundary along the southern edge of this convection will likely become the focus for intensifying storms later today. Strong flow aloft will promote supercell structures, with very large hail possible in the initial activity. Storms that can maintain discrete nature may also pose some tornado risk this evening as southerly low-level winds and shear increase. By late evening, remaining storms may track eastward across the SLGT risk area with a threat of damaging wind gusts. ...Western/Central OK... Isolated supercell storms are expected to form along the diffuse dryline over western OK and western north TX. This activity may produce very large hail initially, but an evolution to more linear structures is expected during the early evening, with hail and damaging winds possible. ...Southeast KS/Southwest MO... Dense cloud cover over this region is expected to erode by mid afternoon, allowing some daytime heating and destabilization along a surface boundary extending across eastern KS into western MO. This zone will likely be the focus for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Despite rather weak instability, shear profiles would support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards for several hours through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST AND CENTRAL TX TO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the southern Great Plains to the Ozark Plateau into tonight. ...20Z Update... Overall forecast appears largely on track for the trio of geographical areas described in the 1630Z outlook. Only consequential change is to increase tornado and significant severe hail probabilities immediately ahead of the surface cyclone near the north-central OK/south-central KS border area. A ribbon of mid to upper 50s surface dew points being advected northwest from eastern OK, in conjunction with an enlarged low-level hodograph along the surface warm front, should support potential for a slow-moving, longer-lived supercell. This scenario is broadly noted in 12Z MPAS and recent RRFS/WoFS runs. Increasing convective coverage is expected along the front during the evening which will eventually yield upscale growth and more of a mixed wind/embedded hail threat in time. See MCDs 197 and 198 for additional near-term information. ..Grams.. 03/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough is deepening across the Four Corners region today, with fast mid/high level flow extending across northern Mexico into TX. Beneath this fast zonal flow regime, southerly low-level winds are helping to advect/maintain upper 50s and 60s dewpoints over much of TX and southern OK. Widespread cloud cover this morning will continue to suppress strong heating except across western OK and west-central TX where a dryline will develop. This will lead to multiple mesoscale areas of concern for strong/severe thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. ...Central TX... An area of residual precipitation is affecting north-central TX. The outflow boundary along the southern edge of this convection will likely become the focus for intensifying storms later today. Strong flow aloft will promote supercell structures, with very large hail possible in the initial activity. Storms that can maintain discrete nature may also pose some tornado risk this evening as southerly low-level winds and shear increase. By late evening, remaining storms may track eastward across the SLGT risk area with a threat of damaging wind gusts. ...Western/Central OK... Isolated supercell storms are expected to form along the diffuse dryline over western OK and western north TX. This activity may produce very large hail initially, but an evolution to more linear structures is expected during the early evening, with hail and damaging winds possible. ...Southeast KS/Southwest MO... Dense cloud cover over this region is expected to erode by mid afternoon, allowing some daytime heating and destabilization along a surface boundary extending across eastern KS into western MO. This zone will likely be the focus for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Despite rather weak instability, shear profiles would support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards for several hours through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST AND CENTRAL TX TO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the southern Great Plains to the Ozark Plateau into tonight. ...20Z Update... Overall forecast appears largely on track for the trio of geographical areas described in the 1630Z outlook. Only consequential change is to increase tornado and significant severe hail probabilities immediately ahead of the surface cyclone near the north-central OK/south-central KS border area. A ribbon of mid to upper 50s surface dew points being advected northwest from eastern OK, in conjunction with an enlarged low-level hodograph along the surface warm front, should support potential for a slow-moving, longer-lived supercell. This scenario is broadly noted in 12Z MPAS and recent RRFS/WoFS runs. Increasing convective coverage is expected along the front during the evening which will eventually yield upscale growth and more of a mixed wind/embedded hail threat in time. See MCDs 197 and 198 for additional near-term information. ..Grams.. 03/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough is deepening across the Four Corners region today, with fast mid/high level flow extending across northern Mexico into TX. Beneath this fast zonal flow regime, southerly low-level winds are helping to advect/maintain upper 50s and 60s dewpoints over much of TX and southern OK. Widespread cloud cover this morning will continue to suppress strong heating except across western OK and west-central TX where a dryline will develop. This will lead to multiple mesoscale areas of concern for strong/severe thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. ...Central TX... An area of residual precipitation is affecting north-central TX. The outflow boundary along the southern edge of this convection will likely become the focus for intensifying storms later today. Strong flow aloft will promote supercell structures, with very large hail possible in the initial activity. Storms that can maintain discrete nature may also pose some tornado risk this evening as southerly low-level winds and shear increase. By late evening, remaining storms may track eastward across the SLGT risk area with a threat of damaging wind gusts. ...Western/Central OK... Isolated supercell storms are expected to form along the diffuse dryline over western OK and western north TX. This activity may produce very large hail initially, but an evolution to more linear structures is expected during the early evening, with hail and damaging winds possible. ...Southeast KS/Southwest MO... Dense cloud cover over this region is expected to erode by mid afternoon, allowing some daytime heating and destabilization along a surface boundary extending across eastern KS into western MO. This zone will likely be the focus for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Despite rather weak instability, shear profiles would support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards for several hours through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST AND CENTRAL TX TO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the southern Great Plains to the Ozark Plateau into tonight. ...20Z Update... Overall forecast appears largely on track for the trio of geographical areas described in the 1630Z outlook. Only consequential change is to increase tornado and significant severe hail probabilities immediately ahead of the surface cyclone near the north-central OK/south-central KS border area. A ribbon of mid to upper 50s surface dew points being advected northwest from eastern OK, in conjunction with an enlarged low-level hodograph along the surface warm front, should support potential for a slow-moving, longer-lived supercell. This scenario is broadly noted in 12Z MPAS and recent RRFS/WoFS runs. Increasing convective coverage is expected along the front during the evening which will eventually yield upscale growth and more of a mixed wind/embedded hail threat in time. See MCDs 197 and 198 for additional near-term information. ..Grams.. 03/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough is deepening across the Four Corners region today, with fast mid/high level flow extending across northern Mexico into TX. Beneath this fast zonal flow regime, southerly low-level winds are helping to advect/maintain upper 50s and 60s dewpoints over much of TX and southern OK. Widespread cloud cover this morning will continue to suppress strong heating except across western OK and west-central TX where a dryline will develop. This will lead to multiple mesoscale areas of concern for strong/severe thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. ...Central TX... An area of residual precipitation is affecting north-central TX. The outflow boundary along the southern edge of this convection will likely become the focus for intensifying storms later today. Strong flow aloft will promote supercell structures, with very large hail possible in the initial activity. Storms that can maintain discrete nature may also pose some tornado risk this evening as southerly low-level winds and shear increase. By late evening, remaining storms may track eastward across the SLGT risk area with a threat of damaging wind gusts. ...Western/Central OK... Isolated supercell storms are expected to form along the diffuse dryline over western OK and western north TX. This activity may produce very large hail initially, but an evolution to more linear structures is expected during the early evening, with hail and damaging winds possible. ...Southeast KS/Southwest MO... Dense cloud cover over this region is expected to erode by mid afternoon, allowing some daytime heating and destabilization along a surface boundary extending across eastern KS into western MO. This zone will likely be the focus for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Despite rather weak instability, shear profiles would support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards for several hours through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST AND CENTRAL TX TO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the southern Great Plains to the Ozark Plateau into tonight. ...20Z Update... Overall forecast appears largely on track for the trio of geographical areas described in the 1630Z outlook. Only consequential change is to increase tornado and significant severe hail probabilities immediately ahead of the surface cyclone near the north-central OK/south-central KS border area. A ribbon of mid to upper 50s surface dew points being advected northwest from eastern OK, in conjunction with an enlarged low-level hodograph along the surface warm front, should support potential for a slow-moving, longer-lived supercell. This scenario is broadly noted in 12Z MPAS and recent RRFS/WoFS runs. Increasing convective coverage is expected along the front during the evening which will eventually yield upscale growth and more of a mixed wind/embedded hail threat in time. See MCDs 197 and 198 for additional near-term information. ..Grams.. 03/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough is deepening across the Four Corners region today, with fast mid/high level flow extending across northern Mexico into TX. Beneath this fast zonal flow regime, southerly low-level winds are helping to advect/maintain upper 50s and 60s dewpoints over much of TX and southern OK. Widespread cloud cover this morning will continue to suppress strong heating except across western OK and west-central TX where a dryline will develop. This will lead to multiple mesoscale areas of concern for strong/severe thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. ...Central TX... An area of residual precipitation is affecting north-central TX. The outflow boundary along the southern edge of this convection will likely become the focus for intensifying storms later today. Strong flow aloft will promote supercell structures, with very large hail possible in the initial activity. Storms that can maintain discrete nature may also pose some tornado risk this evening as southerly low-level winds and shear increase. By late evening, remaining storms may track eastward across the SLGT risk area with a threat of damaging wind gusts. ...Western/Central OK... Isolated supercell storms are expected to form along the diffuse dryline over western OK and western north TX. This activity may produce very large hail initially, but an evolution to more linear structures is expected during the early evening, with hail and damaging winds possible. ...Southeast KS/Southwest MO... Dense cloud cover over this region is expected to erode by mid afternoon, allowing some daytime heating and destabilization along a surface boundary extending across eastern KS into western MO. This zone will likely be the focus for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Despite rather weak instability, shear profiles would support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards for several hours through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST AND CENTRAL TX TO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the southern Great Plains to the Ozark Plateau into tonight. ...20Z Update... Overall forecast appears largely on track for the trio of geographical areas described in the 1630Z outlook. Only consequential change is to increase tornado and significant severe hail probabilities immediately ahead of the surface cyclone near the north-central OK/south-central KS border area. A ribbon of mid to upper 50s surface dew points being advected northwest from eastern OK, in conjunction with an enlarged low-level hodograph along the surface warm front, should support potential for a slow-moving, longer-lived supercell. This scenario is broadly noted in 12Z MPAS and recent RRFS/WoFS runs. Increasing convective coverage is expected along the front during the evening which will eventually yield upscale growth and more of a mixed wind/embedded hail threat in time. See MCDs 197 and 198 for additional near-term information. ..Grams.. 03/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough is deepening across the Four Corners region today, with fast mid/high level flow extending across northern Mexico into TX. Beneath this fast zonal flow regime, southerly low-level winds are helping to advect/maintain upper 50s and 60s dewpoints over much of TX and southern OK. Widespread cloud cover this morning will continue to suppress strong heating except across western OK and west-central TX where a dryline will develop. This will lead to multiple mesoscale areas of concern for strong/severe thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. ...Central TX... An area of residual precipitation is affecting north-central TX. The outflow boundary along the southern edge of this convection will likely become the focus for intensifying storms later today. Strong flow aloft will promote supercell structures, with very large hail possible in the initial activity. Storms that can maintain discrete nature may also pose some tornado risk this evening as southerly low-level winds and shear increase. By late evening, remaining storms may track eastward across the SLGT risk area with a threat of damaging wind gusts. ...Western/Central OK... Isolated supercell storms are expected to form along the diffuse dryline over western OK and western north TX. This activity may produce very large hail initially, but an evolution to more linear structures is expected during the early evening, with hail and damaging winds possible. ...Southeast KS/Southwest MO... Dense cloud cover over this region is expected to erode by mid afternoon, allowing some daytime heating and destabilization along a surface boundary extending across eastern KS into western MO. This zone will likely be the focus for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Despite rather weak instability, shear profiles would support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards for several hours through early evening. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0116 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will move eastward from the Rockies into the MS Valley through the period, while a belt of strong low/midlevel west-southwesterly flow persists from northern MX across south/central TX. At the same time, a related surface cyclone will continue east-northeastward from northeast TX into the OH Valley. On the backside of the departing surface cyclone, a modest pressure gradient and strong downslope flow will contribute to warm, dry, and breezy conditions along the Rio Grande during the afternoon. The overlap of 15-20 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 10-15 percent RH will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0116 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will move eastward from the Rockies into the MS Valley through the period, while a belt of strong low/midlevel west-southwesterly flow persists from northern MX across south/central TX. At the same time, a related surface cyclone will continue east-northeastward from northeast TX into the OH Valley. On the backside of the departing surface cyclone, a modest pressure gradient and strong downslope flow will contribute to warm, dry, and breezy conditions along the Rio Grande during the afternoon. The overlap of 15-20 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 10-15 percent RH will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0116 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will move eastward from the Rockies into the MS Valley through the period, while a belt of strong low/midlevel west-southwesterly flow persists from northern MX across south/central TX. At the same time, a related surface cyclone will continue east-northeastward from northeast TX into the OH Valley. On the backside of the departing surface cyclone, a modest pressure gradient and strong downslope flow will contribute to warm, dry, and breezy conditions along the Rio Grande during the afternoon. The overlap of 15-20 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 10-15 percent RH will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0116 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will move eastward from the Rockies into the MS Valley through the period, while a belt of strong low/midlevel west-southwesterly flow persists from northern MX across south/central TX. At the same time, a related surface cyclone will continue east-northeastward from northeast TX into the OH Valley. On the backside of the departing surface cyclone, a modest pressure gradient and strong downslope flow will contribute to warm, dry, and breezy conditions along the Rio Grande during the afternoon. The overlap of 15-20 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 10-15 percent RH will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0116 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will move eastward from the Rockies into the MS Valley through the period, while a belt of strong low/midlevel west-southwesterly flow persists from northern MX across south/central TX. At the same time, a related surface cyclone will continue east-northeastward from northeast TX into the OH Valley. On the backside of the departing surface cyclone, a modest pressure gradient and strong downslope flow will contribute to warm, dry, and breezy conditions along the Rio Grande during the afternoon. The overlap of 15-20 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 10-15 percent RH will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0116 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will move eastward from the Rockies into the MS Valley through the period, while a belt of strong low/midlevel west-southwesterly flow persists from northern MX across south/central TX. At the same time, a related surface cyclone will continue east-northeastward from northeast TX into the OH Valley. On the backside of the departing surface cyclone, a modest pressure gradient and strong downslope flow will contribute to warm, dry, and breezy conditions along the Rio Grande during the afternoon. The overlap of 15-20 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 10-15 percent RH will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0116 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will move eastward from the Rockies into the MS Valley through the period, while a belt of strong low/midlevel west-southwesterly flow persists from northern MX across south/central TX. At the same time, a related surface cyclone will continue east-northeastward from northeast TX into the OH Valley. On the backside of the departing surface cyclone, a modest pressure gradient and strong downslope flow will contribute to warm, dry, and breezy conditions along the Rio Grande during the afternoon. The overlap of 15-20 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 10-15 percent RH will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more